Alten S.A.

Good evening, everybody. I would like to thank you for joining this conference call where we'll be talking about the third quarter of 2023. As you have likely read a few minutes ago, our turnover was 3.37 billion this year. In France, the activity grew by over 9% and outside of France by 8.8%. So the group's activity has grown by over 10% plus 9.8% in France and over 9% outside of France. During the third quarter, growth slowed, which was nothing, which was no surprise, but there are certain elements which we will come back to. Even if the results are satisfying, the growth is in line with our predictions, which were fairly low. So our overall growth is 7.6%. 10.5% in France, 6.3% outside of France. The quarter had certain negative effects and when comparing with 2022. But overall growth has been of 9% this quarter, which remains entirely satisfactory. And so overall we're at 3.8% growth. Let me remind you that it takes into account the data for the company sold. And that is why the growth level is lower than that of the activity. The number of working days has also had an impact on our figures and penalized year to date figures of around 7%. Level activity in the third quarter was at 91%. And when compared to 2022, this is respectable. And so we have seen a drop of 1% in relation to 2022, which is entirely normal, given that our level of activity has come back to normal levels. We have, there's been little change in number of staff. At the end of 2022, we had over 60,000 members of staff. At the end of June, there were over 57,000. And at the end of September, we are at 55,000. 11,000 staff in France and the rest located outside of France. At the end of September, we had 3,000 more engineers 520 in France and 2,700 outside of France. And we recruited more engineers. In the third quarter, we will have only gained three engineers. So more in France, but fewer elsewhere. And there was a drop in staff levels in July and August, which is more than usual. And that is why September couldn't highly compensate. On an international level, the drop in staff is mostly in Germany where there are a hundred fewer staff and in India where there are 80 fewer staff. Whereas in other countries, the staff level is stable or even growing slightly. If we analyze the activity of this semester in terms of geographical regions, you can see that the drop, the slowdown is not general across the board. In France, Europe and the Benelux countries, growth is doing well. In France, Even though there were some difficulties, the turnover grew by over 10% and 10.5% in the third quarter. So that represents 12.5% if overall. The activity is dynamic in the automobile industry, aeronautics, defense, where we're still growing and security. On the other hand, we're seeing some difficulties, as you know, in the banking sector and more generally in the IT sector because the retail sector in France is affected by the slowdown of activity, which was more than we had anticipated or higher than we had anticipated. So in Spain and Portugal, activity is doing well. So it's grown by 16%. All sectors are growing, including banking and finance. In Germany, there was a strong slowdown in the second water and this has continued into the third quarter. Growth in Germany is at 8.4% year to date, so 1.4%. And so it will have been 2.7% in the third quarter. The automobile industry has seen a sharp, strong slowdown. So we can see a deceleration of activities in the air nautic. and analytical industry. And these two sectors represent 70% of the company's turnover. Growth is 12.5% year to date, which remains satisfactory. Even we can see growth had a growth of 8% in the third quarter. So what I would like to underline is that we have a company where we had 850 consultants, which now represents 40% of the activity in the geographical region. But the growth has been almost zero, which explains the apparent slow growth, slow down of growth in the UK. In historical geographical Asia growth is still growing at over 15%. In Italy, we have seen growth of 24%, which is still robust and all sectors are growing, finance, tertiary sectors. In the next countries, the growth has also been maintained at 15%, which is higher in Belgium, notably in life sciences, but As the market slowed down in the Netherlands, the semiconductors in Scandinavia, the scenario is similar to in Germany. So the activity slowed down for automobiles and heavy goods vehicles. And there is a slow growth of 6% year to date. In Eastern Europe, growth has remained satisfactory. So it's remained 14% in the third quarter. Poland, which represents two-thirds of the zone, has grown by more than 25%. Romania grew by 17% thanks to the automobile sector and the tertiary financial sector. In North America now, so the activity grew by 5%, but we've seen a significant slowdown in the third quarter, given that growth is only at 3%. In the US, this slowdown is due to automobile accounts and then to projects in the oil and gas sector. We already talked about this at the end of the first quarter. In Canada, the slowdown is also due to the banking sector. In Asia Pacific zone, we've published a growth of 3.6%, but zero growth in the third quarter. As I explained during the previous publication, we must reprocess the data given the significant drop of activity in Singapore following the end of certain projects in gas and oil. So Singapore now only represents 3.5% of the zones, a drop of 65%. So given the result is a 14% growth. And so the figures still remain settled.

Looking at the other Asian countries.

China has shown a significant drop in the telecom sector. So this is a significant drop. And there's also been significant drop in semiconductors and electronics. On the other hand, automobile sector has still been growing at over 30%. So India, 35% of the figure is continuing to grow at 15% thanks to the tertiary sector. Japan has increased its growth at plus 30% and South Korea, 10% of the growth hasn't grown by more than 25% thanks to its automobile and electronic contracts. So as you can see, the group's growth is fairly uniform overall and we consider the geographical areas all together. Certain zones have seen a significant slowdown And then three, um, so Germany, Scandinavia and North America, but all other geographical regions are continuing to grow significantly. Now, if we, to look at the analysis, according to a sector, so the automobile industry has grown by 15%. All manufacturers have shown, um, growth of around 22%. So the slowdown of so which we can see in part manufacturers is most notable in Germany. So the sector is continuing to grow five, 6% aerospace has still growing at around 26% in civil aeronautics. The sector is doing well. Defense and security activities are continue to go at a plus 30%. So year to date growth is at 27%. Defense and security have grown by 30%. energy is over 7% which is dropped by 8% because of the oil and gas activities. Certain significant projects have continued in Africa and North America and following the withdrawal of Russia have had an impact and to be honest We do not have any indicators on the trends that we may experience. When it comes to energy, the nuclear sector life sciences are still growing. Industry equipment and electronics and semiconductors by 12% across the board, even if they're at tech sector has slowed down generally in all geographical areas. Helicoms are stable. So you can see a slight drop of three. So operators are continuing to grow. The finance sector saw the slow growth in the third quarter, notably because of activities in France and in Canada. The retail service and public sector also slowed down quite uniformly across all geographical areas to summarise. So aside from oil and gas, and telecoms, all sectors are continuing to grow in year to date and in the third quarter, even if the growth rate is slowing down. Some verticals are also affected in certain areas, mostly banking and the auto industry. Other markets are doing well and are performing fairly uniformly. Our external growth policy can continue to be pursued. We launched an acquisition proposal and we should finish the acquisition in Japan in the coming days. Other companies are underway. So for 2023, as we anticipated, activity has remained satisfactory, even if growth has slowed down. We'll likely see the same in the last quarter. So the last quarter or the last half of the year, we may see better results than last year. And we will be able, and this will be due to a few working days, And then also expected to grow organically by 9%, which is satisfactory in given the current environment. If you would like. And I will be able to give you the results. I think everybody will have, will be up for asking questions. So we have a question from Mr. Kaigoi Ramius.

Now, given the growth, the organic growth, which is slightly lower than the September anticipated figures described in the speech, do you believe that the scenario that had been mentioned at the time, the margins scenario might be somewhat difficult to attain, and perhaps perhaps a few base points less. Now, could you remind me of the Martin scenario that we had referred to at the time, let me just get back to what had been said.

Okay.

Point 5% to one point retraction contraction versus s to 2022. So one point less last year, 10.8, if memory serves me right, at S2. So this would be below one point retraction. Let me just give you the various points, and then this will be one lucky off our back. So you have the incidence and impacts of acquisitions. which will not have so much of an impact because we had consolidated methods. All of our results did not really improve. And we get other companies that joined the scope with negative margins or equal to zero will have an impact as an S1 from M&A. Okay. And as I said, one working day less. 1.5 working days less in this half year. We didn't have one in H1, this will have an impact on H2 and some lesser activities. And this will of course have a mechanical impact on margins. The business rates will be recurrent in following years because 92%, this is our target. the steering target. I'm talking about the business rate. This because we do mostly work package, and everybody is now converting towards 92. Now the 93 rate we had last year, it was exceptionally high. On the other hand, the timelines is what timelines are all about. That's the way the picnic crumbles. If it is better in 2024, then we'll see the other, the situation will be the other way around. And as you may well know, because I talked about it last month, we also strengthened the technical Well, the work per package activities actually were strengthened in many geographical zones in Germany mostly. And we also had in H1 an impact in SG&A's 90 base points impact. And the impact will not be as strong in H2, a lot less of an impact. But there will be an impact. Now, I don't have the H2 margin because we're only in October. But mechanically... If you add up all those different elements regarding margin evolutions will necessarily be below 9.8 and 8.2. That's a given. Independently of the fact as you said, so quite rightfully, that even though fixed costs went down significantly, but the fact of having less revenues than expected will necessarily have an impact on the amount of margins. Now we had given a guidance between nine and 10. Now we're in the lower range of the guidance. Now, were businesses conservative? Or is this objective? We'll just see what the future lies for us. But just for the sake of being conservative, we're not going to be reaching 10. That's for sure. That's a given in terms of organic growth around nine. Yes. Yes, we're quite confident in this respect now versus the previous guidance through rather in the lower area of the range in this doesn't mean the margin will go down significantly between last year and this year. The various impacts on margins are related to all the various things that I just referred to, which mechanically have an incidence on margins. Okay, thank you. And so far as recruitments and the low level of net recruitments, is this related. Is this a deliberate decisions from the part of business units in the face of the slowdown? of orders, or is it related to other parameters, which are perhaps, for example, such as resignments in the summer, July and August. We had quite a number of resignations, resignations end of June as usual, and then quite a number of departures occurred in July and August as well. And as a result, the departure rate was more important than usual in the last few years. Now, we made up with... recruitment since September and October recruitments are not going to be bad. We're not at the end of the month, but I still have figures as of last week, end of last week. Now Q4 2023 will not be equivalent to Q4 2022. That's for sure. But the recruitment dynamic is quite up there in October. If we had recruited more people in Q3, would not be able to say what the impact would have been on growth. And what the impact would have been on business rate, because our business rate is still 91.7 or eight. Which means that all of the additional recruitments, which we would have actually done, Well, some of them would be a contract that would have boosted growth, but we're totally unable to give such a split because we just don't know it. But the given is that business units are automatically adjusting their recruitment dynamic and impetus because they steer the intercontracts and depending on the projects, they adjust the resources at hand. Factoring end of projects and engineers are becoming available and additional needs emerge as they face up to growth. Thank you very much. Okay, now we got a question from Mr. Yes, thank you. Hello. Hello. Actually, I know it is early, but I would have liked to know 2024. Well, it is early that that's for sure. Yes, I know. But the growth is still embedded growth is really withering down, so to say, and put on the market with the organic expectations. And those expectations are pretty high. Today, first question, is there a possible risk of having a contracted revenues with protocols which clients are conveying messages. And today, may you consider that an ambitious scenarios perhaps to fish for 45% organic growth? And then I got a follow up question after you give your answer. Now, it is early to answer the question. Now, the growth is withered down. I mean, the embedded one is going to be lower than it used to be. And now this is a truism. Now, having said that, in terms of organic growth this year, let's say that we're going to be adding perhaps 3,000 engineers, perhaps a little more. 3,002. We'll just see how we'll be ending the year. And this is going to be generating embedded growth for the year 2024, regardless of what happens. This is just going to be systematic, but much lower than last year's because last year we had added 6,600 people in organic. So we'll be twice weaker in terms of embedded growth than last year. And knowing that, I did not model those, but we have mixed impacts because part of the growth of this year was generated in the international basis and in areas that are not necessarily generating turnover per individual because Morocco and other countries were developed to address some European markets. So perhaps the first indication, but very, very preliminary, would be to say, okay, we should consider organic growth and embedded growth as last year. I figured out what it was and divided by two. This is quite a rough estimation. With a security buffer eight, for example, we'll just have to add the 2024 growth. Now, I'm having a look at Germany, Germany, because Germany has a important revenue per capita, which is quite important. And this is still a problem among OEMs, automotive OEMs. Now the message in Germany, early this week, for instance, well, the message of local managers is as follows. OEMs are not renewing the projects. Those that are stopping no longer have any budgets and they're not relaunching new projects and they're asking you because budgets are gonna be unblocked next year, early next year. And as a result, they're expecting a resumption of business, a resumption of growth as of Q2, 2024. Now this is message I heard from competitors as well in the automotive sector. And this does not mean that it's going to be coming to fruition, but it is a consistent speech. Now, let's actually expect this resumption in Germany Q2 2024. And this will be the case elsewhere as well. I don't know how long the crisis is going to last in France, in the banking sector, but not just the banking sector, but in the market in general. But our scenario today is low embedded growth plus some additional growth in 2024. I'm not going to give you figures four or five, I don't know. or less than that, for that matter. I hope that we're still going to be generating growth around those figures. But before getting a departing snapshot, in other words, the early January, the landscape in terms of headcount activities and projects, it's difficult to really give you some kind of forecast. Okay. Okay, the follow-up question is with regards to profitability. We'd like to get back to 10. This is the ambition for next year, and the departing point is somewhat lower, 25, 30 base points versus what we had anticipated. Now, is that... really refashioning this idea of getting back to 10. Or is this a one shot idea? And how about the structural margin? Now the structural margin is not moving that much. We're now really taking up some measures here right now. So as to steer the cost accordingly. We're now drawing up a plan I don't know whether I can be too vocal about it. I don't know whether it was subject to an announcement, but this is done in a country, in a European country. This is not going to be a big country, but I mean, just to adjust ourselves to the beginning of the year. And we are going to take up the right measures to acclimate the cost basis to the business activities. Okay, good. This is clear. Very last question. Now, We feel that things are deteriorating, that have been deteriorating for a few weeks. Have you been observing that more companies were up for grabs and more opportunities in terms of external growth? Not really. No, there are projects that are still, you know, around. They're the same, basically. There is a company that just emerged on the market that could be interesting in Germany, in which I visited this week. The multiples did not go down. And let me tell you. Well, They've been shareholders for three years, plus the timelines are really the right ones. I mean, this is the right calendar, the right time to sell, perhaps even a little too late because the inflection curve is actually, we went past that in the H1, but right now we do not see any M&A market adjustments. Multiples are not going down and more projects are not emerging, no, not more than in the past. Okay, perhaps multiples are not going down, but are there still transactions taking place? Now, are there still buyers still ready to buy those multiples? Because if there aren't more, then things are going to get adjusted. Now, this is for sure. Our funds are going to be withdrawing companies from the market until things... Okay, well, anyway, what can be seen here is when processes are getting structured, phones are still around, and industrial players are putting up strategies on those projects. Okay, great. Thank you very much, Bruno. Have a nice evening. Okay, Laurent, no problem. Have a nice evening. We got a question from Mr. Diego Esteban.

Hi, good evening. This is Diego Esteban from Stifel Europe. Thank you for taking my question. What scope effects should we take into account for Q4? Thanks, Diego.

What scope effects? Diego, could you precise your question? Do you mean whether... we are going to consolidate further companies that we recently bought within the Alten perimeter. Is that correct?

Yes, that would be great.

Okay, yes. So we're going to... We're going to consolidate two companies we bought, one in Poland, and we expect the revenue to be for just one quarter four and a half million euros and we are going also to consolidate a company that we bought in the ius during h1 and we expect for that quarter a revenue to be comprising between 2.5 and 3 million euros That is to say that we do not have a real impact in our yearly revenue.

Okay, he said thank you very much. I'm going to wait for Mr. Marco's question. Perhaps he's going to try to ask the question by phone. The first question is the automotive, which is the... which is really generating good performance. I don't know whether this percent is over three months or one month. And Germany, could you perhaps tell us a little about what you consider is relevant in that sector? Because on the one hand, your message is quite pessimistic because OEMs are actually lowering their budgets or... or perhaps putting some other projects on halt. And the situation in Germany is as it is, but the aggregated figure from a top-down standpoint is rather good. Number two is the French dynamic. In France, the dynamic is quite strong, we understand perhaps. because of Q3, but on the other hand, the performance is quite very well. You did not mention any negative elements or overly negative parameters. So is this trend going to last? And if I go back to the whole question, growth with France over 55%, basically, the international level will be below the average growth level of the group. And question number three, if you could get back to the areas, the weaker areas, the weakness was stronger than expected in Q3, hence the lower level in Q3. Now, perhaps, according to your comments, Germany was perhaps had an impact on this situation. Okay, I'm going to take this and try to take it in order. And so far as the automotive sector is concerned, in other words, there is no general trend in the automotive sector. And all of the OEMs are not necessarily concerned or impacted by projects being halted. Now, 15% organic growth of the automotive sector year to date. And in Q3, Only Q3 regenerated 9.5%, which I mean, this still represents very satisfactory figures, even though we got used to high growth rates. But I mean, this is very satisfactory in the automotive sector. Now, what are the issues at hand? German OEMs, that's a given. not makers, not the car makers. Now, why can I give you an answer? But oh, yeah. Now, the projects came to a halt and they'll resume next year for new projects. Now, Sweden. No car makers because of Volvo 15. Same as in Germany, projects are coming to a halt, budgets are not being put back on the table and are going to be blocked again in 2024. Now why? Because management, technical and R&D teams consumed all their budgets, anticipated them, and then given the context, Their managers decided not to extend them. I don't know. But the truth of the matter is that poor project portfolios are provided. They're actually fleshed out. You also have transition related issues, which are boosting everybody. But in reality, this is the situation. Now the U.S., Among carmakers, activities are going down. Well, not activities. No, let's be careful. Lesser growth, business growth, and budgets did not or were not contracted. And the automotive sector, I mean, those are the areas which we are facing issues. Now, the situation is very good in France among U.S. carmakers, with the exception of Stellantis. Now, we're pressing ahead to the exclusion of Stellantis. In Italy, the situation is good. In Spain, same thing. Okay, we're not really facing a crisis in the automotive sector. We're facing a slowdown, a strong slowdown among some of the clients. So much for the automotive.

Rance is still doing well. So growth is still strong. And it is, we are seeing the defense markets accelerating. So that's no surprise. The aeronautic industry is doing well. So growth is decelerating, but not particularly strongly. So that remains, things are going well. The French automobile industry, where the manufacturers are also resisting well, given that the growth dynamic is stronger for the manufacturers. So I didn't talk too much about France. But we talked about it a lot during the analyst meeting.

We talked about it a lot in the analyst meeting.

And so we are at the top of the wave. And telecoms are in the same situation. So that will have an impact and we'll see what happens in 2024. But not all domains are changing like in France are growing. So the three sectors that I mentioned are represent over 50% of French turnover. So what are the areas of weakness in that case? I have mentioned it to a certain extent. So the automobile industry, so telecoms industry is dropping. We'll also see a drop in Q4. So excluding South America, this is more or less the same everywhere. Banking, when it comes to banking and finance, we also see a slowdown of activity in North America. So energy, oil and glass is still dropping. So logically speaking, there should be investments that will start up again, but we can't, we don't see anything on the horizon as yet. So I was listening to Mr. Puyoni recently and what he said was that if we wanted to avoid an oil crisis, a crude oil crisis, investment would be necessary. So it will likely happen, but in any case, we're not seeing it in our course for tender. It comes to life sciences. This was a sector that slowed down, but it seems to be picking up again. But as I said, telecoms, banking and the automobile industry are having difficulty. There are the growth rates that we're seeing in Q3 and not the growth rates that we saw last year. But as Lauren said, sequential growth is slowing down. There are pluses, there are minuses. But we won't be starting on the same footing as last year. So I can't make any predictions about 2024 because I am not able to. But I can't say for sure. It'll be four, it'll be six, it'll be three. We really have no way of telling. One last question for me to understand momentum. As you said, recruitment... is happening. Recruitment in October was fairly dynamic. So we're trying to compare the dynamic that you see at the beginning of October versus what we're seeing in Q3 and September. Is there a real difference? Is it a positive momentum? Is it something that you can qualify as a dynamic that enable you to grow to a certain extent or around 5%. I'm just trying to understand what you mean by dynamic October. No, what I said is that we won't have a Q4 like we had last year where we recruited 1,200 people. No, that's not true. Well, recruitment will happen around 350 people in October to give you an idea of the figures. But October is generally a month when we recruit a lot because September, October is when we recruit beginners. So it's not abnormal to have this, see this level of recruitment in October. But we're not seeing the same, the same increase in activity elsewhere. So recruitment is never very high in December. So I can't predict the future. We're also working in context where forecasts are really done from one week to another. So I don't know where we'll be between now and the end of the year when it comes to net recruitment, but October is generally a good month.

I'm not sure if that was a clear enough answer.

We don't have any other questions. Would you like to wait a little bit? No one else is raising their hand or has raised their hand. Yes, I'm connected, weirdly. I'm connected under Cecil's name. I have two quick questions. The first is about Germany. So you said auto and auto-mobility was at 70% of turnover. Is there any kind of ambition to increase diversity? So there are countries that, well, they have a lot of activity like China. Is there any, are there any projects to diversify? And yes, when, and second question, remember the two sectors that had slowed down early in the cycle were oil and gas and banking and finance. When it slowed down and can we expect any kind of impact, positive or negative? Or is it really too hard to make any kind of prediction in order to answer your question about Germany? Yes, of course. We are trying to diversify in motor and aeronautic industry. So this represents a 67% of the accumulated turnover. A few years ago, it represented, um, at least 80%, if not more. The reason for this is because the sectors that externalize the R&D the most in Germany are these sectors and generally speaking in the world. So the other sectors externalize also, but in Germany, they externalize a lot less. So There are certain sectors where we have undertaken diversification, electronics in Germany, telecoms, energy industry. So for the time being, these are retail and service activities that are a little lower than FI, but this is anecdotal. So there's the, um, Banking and finance sector in Germany, where we have a little presence, but all the other sectors are growing progressively by a few points every year, which explains the difference between 80 and 67. There are prospecting activities which are taking place, but as always, it just takes a bit of time. And to answer your question on oil and gas and banking and finance. So these are industries that don't have the same kind of dynamics. Oil and gas represented 9% of the turnover in 2014 or 15, which was the highest, I think, and Since 2015, it has dropped year after year. So we kept thinking that it would stop dropping, but it's still dropping from one year to the next. And currently, I wouldn't want to say that it will surely go back up again. So there are other renewable energy products which are a substitute, but this does not compensate for the projects that disappeared in the oil and gas sector. So this is an overall trend which will obviously come to a head given the energy transition. I know that there are certain projects that have been, that were suspended. given the drop in growth. Banking and finance is another topic. So it started to drop much more recently. So this year, just this year even. So we saw signs of deceleration in 2000, the end of 2023. This was the announcements that were made. We're not seeing negative growth yet, except in France. But we will, um, end up with negative growth in 2024 in France, I think perhaps in the U S um, but perhaps not in Canada. Well, um, we're not seeing a drop in all countries. Year to date, we're at a little over five. I don't think we have hit the bottom yet. I think we'll have to wait for middle of 2024 before seeing any kind of recovery. And that is a best case scenario. We have a question from Mr. Aditya.

Hi, Bruno. Thanks for taking my questions. Two from me. Firstly, have you seen any change in the competitive landscape at all in your main markets? And second, can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of pricing and the conversations you're having with customers regarding that?

Regarding the competitive landscape, there is absolutely no change. Nothing happened between last year and that year, and we don't expect any change next year. Regarding pricing, of course, we struggled to get some price increase over 23. We got some at many customers. There are some discrepancies, of course, according to the customers. Most of the price increases now have been passed over H2 while we were still on prices for some customers, 22 prices during H1. For example, as you know, we are negotiating prices with our customers during Q1. It starts November, December, but it ends Q1. At some customers, it has been very tough and we ended the discussions and negotiations during Q2. But we have, I would say, a basis of customers with new prices, 23 prices over all H2, which means that the margins in H2 because of that reason, will be, if we just consider the ratio of prices and wage, better than in H1. uh we don't have very clear figures i mean to release regarding uh how much prices have increased because it's a negotiation customer per customer we have mixed effects and also um As we are engaged in many work packages, activities, the prices are what they are because we bid for the price for the work package. But as we have an increasing wage base, Of course, we have to bid with higher prices, like the competition does, obviously. So I will give, I think, in February, the impact on the wedge price ratio for 2023, and note that the impact we had in H1 will be lower in H2.

Thank you.

So it looks like that was the last question. If there are no other questions, I would like to thank you for participating in this conference call. I'd wish you a very good evening and I'd like to remind you that we will meet again at the end of January. whereby we'll talk about the turnover for 2023. I wish you a very pleasant evening and goodbye. Thank you very much.