Foxtons Group plc

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining the Foxton's 2022 full year results presentation. I'm joined by Chris Hough, Group CFO, and we will both be available at the end of the call to answer any questions you may have. To provide an outline of the running order, I will start by giving an overview of our performance in 2022 and commentary on the market environment. Chris will take you through the financials and I will finish with an update on our findings of the operational review our refocused strategic priorities and some thoughts on Outlook. This is my first time presenting our results and on a personal note, I'm extremely proud to be back at the company where I started my career over 20 years ago. There is undoubtedly significant unfulfilled potential within the business and I could not be more excited by the opportunity and the journey we have ahead. Turning to slide five, 2022 was a year of progress for the business both financially and operationally, as we begin to get back on the front foot. Revenue grew 11% in the year, with significant growth in lettings as a main driver. This revenue growth translated into a 56% increase in adjusted operating profit. The high drop-through underlines my firm belief that our best approach to delivering growth is through aggressively growing revenue. Whilst doing this, We will continue to monitor and adjust our cost base as necessary, but profit growth cannot be achieved solely through cutting gross, as has clearly happened in the past. Finally, we have 12 million pounds of cash on our balance sheet at year end, and this provides valuable protection in an uncertain economy and supports the implementation of our growth plan. Operationally, 2022 was a year of reset for the business. We have a refreshed and streamlined senior management team, including Chris taking over as our CFO in April, and I took over in September. Several of our key estate agency senior management team have also changed. I have now completed the operational review of the business, and it is clear to me how we lost our way. To deliver long-term growth, we need to rebuild the Foxton's DNA across areas such as our data strategy, people and culture, and brand visibility. Over the last six months, there has already been a huge momentum of change in the business. And these changes have universally been embraced by everyone at Foxton's. We now have a refocused set of strategic priorities with an emphasis on driving growth in non-cyclical and reoccurring revenue streams. This will significantly enhance group revenue, profit, and resilience through the sales market cycle. As mentioned earlier, I believe there is significant unfulfilled potential within the business. And today I have set out our growth ambitions to deliver 25 to 30 million pounds of operating profit in the medium term. It is my aim to return Foxton's to being London's go-to estate agents, unlock the potential in the business and create value for shareholders. Turning now to slide six, an update on the lettings market. As you can see on the graph, the current dynamic is one of lower rental inventory, but high levels of tenant demand, which is driving price growth. Data from Zoopla suggests that rental property listings in London were 32% lower than in the prior year. At the same time, tenant demand is increased considerably, both locally and from overseas, as the effects of COVID-19 are put behind us. This drove rental price growth of 20% across last year. Looking ahead to 2023, we expect little change in this dynamic. However, we do expect year-on-year price growth rates to normalise, reflecting the economic backdrop and tenant affordability. It is also worth noting the impact of this dynamic on our operations. In London, lettings instructions are typically listed on a multi-agency basis and in current market conditions, Speed of winning the instruction and then bringing to market and finally conducting viewings is critical to winning the deal. Through updating and optimising our processes and then ensuring sufficient headcount, we have a solid platform to deliver organic growth. Now turning to slide seven and an update on the sales market. Volumes in 2022 were broadly similar to 2021 and over the same period, prices in London increased by 6%. The key driver of price growth was in the house market, whilst the prices of flats remained relatively unchanged. Against this backdrop, it is disappointing to note that our sales revenues only grew by 1%. And this outlines that we have lost market share in the higher value house market over time. Looking forward to 2023, and you can see from the chart on the right hand side, how the September mini budget reduced new buyer activity by up to 35%. Lower buyer activity means exchange volumes are expected to be lower through the majority of this year. But on a more positive note, we have seen a reduction in mortgage rates in the last few weeks, and this has started to encourage new buyer activity, which we hope will continue and positively impact the sales market towards the latter part of the year. I will now pass over to Chris, who will run you through the financial review.

Thank you, Guy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide nine with an overview of financial performance. Revenue from continuing operations grew 11% to just over 140 million, primarily driven by strong growth in lettings. Despite making cost investments in the year to rebuild our competitiveness, there was good drop through from revenue to adjusted operating profits, which increased by 56% to 13.9 million. This drop through is reflective of the inherent operating leverage in the business. Adjusted operating profit margin increased by 286 basis points to around 10%. And profit before tax grew 115% to 11.9 million. Cash generation was strong and we delivered 7.7 million of net free cash flow in the year. Total dividend per share for the year was 0.9 pence, which is double last year's level. Turning now to slide 10 and the adjusted operating profit walk. which sets out the key profit drivers. Starting from the left-hand side of the chart, in 2021, we delivered an adjusted operating profits of 8.9 million. Revenue grew by 13.8 million, primarily driven by lettings growth, as I mentioned earlier. 2.9 million of incremental variable staff commission charges were incurred due to this increase in revenue. 2.6 million of incremental operating costs from acquisitions were incurred. This includes two additional months of trading from D&G and the operating costs associated with the acquisitions we announced in May. 2.5 million of costs savings benefit to 2022, of which 2 million relates to streamlining senior management positions. A further 1 million of senior management savings is expected to benefit 2023 as the savings annualise. These savings offset 2.5 million of inflationary cost pressures, which included wage inflation and national insurance costs, branch costs, including utilities, and general admin cost inflation. We invested 2.1 million back into the business to strengthen core operations and improve our competitiveness. This included investing in fee earner and sales support headcount, alongside overhauling our Salesforce remuneration packages. And we also increased marketing costs, including launching a new brand messaging campaign and increasing our marketing activity and visibility in core markets. 1.2 million of property restructuring costs were incurred in the period as we take steps to reduce the ongoing cost base of our property portfolio. These movements take us to the 13.9 million of adjusted operating profit in 2022. Turning now to slide 11 and segmental performance. In 2022, revenues from non-cyclical and recurring activities, mainly from lettings, comprise 65% of the group's total revenue. These non-cyclical revenues will provide significant earnings resilience going forwards. In lettings, revenue grew by 12.6 million to 86.9 million. and comprised 7.6 million of growth from our underlying lettings portfolio, 2 million of incremental revenues from two months of additional D&G trading and 3 million revenue from the May 2022 acquisitions. As Guy mentioned, the lettings market dynamic was one of low levels of stock and high levels of tenant demand leading to a 20% year on year increase in rental prices. Revenue per transaction grew by 25%, reflecting these higher rents, but also increased tenancy lengths and an increase in the number of landlords opting for our higher value, fully managed service. The operating leverage within lettings alongside synergies delivered from the integration of D&G resulted in 18 million of adjusted operating profit. That's an 84% year on year increase. Turning now to sales, revenue grew 1% to 43.2 million, driven by 3% increase in volumes, offset by 2% reduction in average revenue per transaction. The lower revenue per transaction reflects an increase in help to buy sales volumes in the run-up to the closure of the help to buy scheme. Direct contribution from sales was healthy at 22 million. but after charging an allocation of central costs, an adjusted operating loss of 3.2 million was made. This loss reflects cost investments in headcounts to rebuild capacity, which will ultimately increase the competitiveness of the sales business and return it to profitability in the longer term. Finally, in financial services, revenue grew 8% to 10.2 million, driven by growth in cross-selling of financial products and higher value mortgages. In the year, we have increased financial advisor headcount to deliver future growth. Turning now to slide 12 and a deeper dive into Lettings business, which represented 62% of total group revenue in 2022. The left chart shows the Lettings portfolio has grown by 7.2% per annum since 2019, primarily driven by acquisitive growth. The middle chart shows revenue grew by a similar level, and after analyzing the revenue from the May 2022 acquisitions, underlying growth was closer to 7.7%. The right hand chart shows adjusted operating profits has grown by around 36% per annum over the same period, highlighting the inherent operating leverage in the business model. Restarting organic growth in lettings alongside earnings accretion from acquisitions will be the primary driver to realising our median term operating profit ambitions. Turning now to slide 13, where I present some detail on our previous lettings acquisitions. As you can see from the table, the four acquisitions completed across 2020 and 2021 have delivered good levels of return on capital employed, significantly above our target rate of 20%. This was achieved by efficiently integrating the acquired portfolio onto our scalable operating platform, enabling good levels of synergies to be realised. I'm also pleased to report the two acquisitions we completed in May 2022 are now trading under the Foxen's brand and are fully integrated onto our platform. The acquisitions were earning as creative in 2023 and are on track to deliver good returns on capital employed. Taking a step back, it's worth outlining that our acquisitions criteria is carefully considered. Firstly, we target only the best quality portfolios. Secondly, we undertake high levels of operational planning and due diligence. And finally, we ensure the price paid supports and returns on capital above our 20% target rate. Yesterday, we were pleased to announce the 7.4 million acquisition of Atkinson Macleod, a four branch estate agency generating 90% of its revenues from lettings. The acquisition will be earnings enhancing in 2023. Turning now to slide 14. Here I've presented a breakdown of our cost base and our 2023 expectations. I will talk to the key items on the slide. Direct costs totaled 49 million in the year. That's around 40% of our cost base. In the second half of the year, we have invested in fee earner headcount. This additional headcount is expected to take 12 to 18 months to deliver a meaningful profit contribution due to the time it takes for fee earner to break even. Sales support costs total 24.8 million or around 20% of the cost base and includes head office roles, critical for supporting our sales force and delivering revenue growth. Some further investment is expected here primarily in our property management and lead generation functions. Property costs, including our branch network and headquarters, totaled £16.7 million, or around 13% of the cost base. We are taking proactive steps to reduce property costs where possible by re-gearing leases or relocating branches. It's worth noting our branch network remains a key component of our operating model, generating high levels of brand awareness in our local markets and playing an important part in bringing our Salesforce together and rebuilding our high performance culture. Other admin costs of 29.7 million represent around 23% of the cost base and captures all admin spend and head office functions, including marketing, IT and admin support. As mentioned previously, we have taken cost action in the year to reduce overheads and corporate costs and these savings will enable us to fund investments for growth in 2023. As Guy mentioned earlier, the key to delivering on our medium-term ambitions is by growing revenues and maximising the operating leverage within the business. As noted on the right-hand side of the slide, I believe the cost base is broadly around the right level for 2023. Turning to group cash flow on slide 15, The business generated net cashflow of 7.7 million in the period, driven by increased profitability. Looking at the bridge on the left hand side, which starts with operating cash before working capital movements of 27.8 million. We had a 1.2 million working capital outflow. This is reflective of the billing cycles on longer tenancies. Income tax paid in the period was 2.7 million. We made 12.7 million of lease payments in the period. and capital expenditure was 3.6 million, primarily relating to technology capital spend and branch fit-out costs. Moving to the uses of cash flow on the right-hand side, there was an 8.5 million cash outflow relating to lettings acquisitions in the period. 3.7 million of cash was left in the D&G sales business at disposal. This was funded by the previous owners of D&G, who left 3.9 million of surplus cash in the business at the point we originally acquired the business. Lastly, we returned a total of 6.4 million of cash to shareholders with 4.9 million returned through share buybacks and 1.5 million in dividends. Total cash at the end of the period was 12 million with no borrowings. As announced yesterday, we acquired Axon MacLeod for 7.4 million of which 0.7 million is deferred for 12 months. The acquisition was funded from our existing cash reserves. Finally, turning to slide 16 and our capital allocation policy. Our main priority is ensuring we have sufficient cash in the business to serve our work capital requirements. We will use capital to invest in areas that drive organic revenue growth. We will distribute cash under our dividend policy, which is to return 35 to 40% of profit after tax, excluding one-off non-cash items. After this, our preferred use of excess cash is to fund acquisitions in lettings portfolios, where we have a track record of delivering good returns on capital. Finally, we will distribute excess cash above operational and growth requirements back to shareholders. In summary, we're aiming for a strong but sufficient balance sheet that allows us to invest appropriately and deliver revenue growth. I'll now hand you back to Guy.

Thank you, Chris. As mentioned earlier in the presentation, I undertook a forensic review of the business shortly after joining, reviewing all aspects of the business and its operating model. On a positive note, I have now spent time with every department and visited every branch across our network, meeting every one of our colleagues, and I've been blown away by their enthusiasm, professionalism, and quality. And at more senior levels, I'm very pleased to report that there is no doubt in my mind that our people are best in class in the industry. However, it is also very clear that operational and strategic missteps have impacted our performance over the last few years. Looking across the group, it is apparent how investment and focus was prioritized in the wrong areas. On a longer timeline, the business never truly recovered from the rapid expansion in branch footprint from 2011 to 2016. when the group more than doubled in size. During this period, front office headcounts did not keep pace with this expansion and high performing sales staff were spread too thin, diluting the culture of the business. Productivity and market share was already starting to slip. Revenues were underpinned by a buoyant sales market with high levels of annual price growth Following the slowdown in the sales market after the Brexit vote in 2016, the business was managed for year-to-year profitability rather than to deliver long-term growth. This included cutting costs in the wrong areas, such as reducing fee-earning staff, and overinvestment in other areas, such as at senior management levels. And as Chris has mentioned earlier, we've already made significant cost savings here. Finally, decision-making was not estate agency-led. Processes that I encountered over 20 years ago were almost unchanged and there seems to have been little innovation despite many of our competitors doing so over the same period. We have not taken the opportunity to drive innovation within the industry through our unique in-house CRM team. Looking at performance on a business level in lettings, true organic portfolio growth has not been prioritised or delivered as evidenced by the organic tenancy portfolio only growing by 1% per annum since 2016. Whilst rising rents hid most of this underperformance, a return to a culture of organic growth will drive high levels of profit uplift. And in addition, acquisitions were started too late and significantly after competitors. Subsequently, the business missed out on good opportunities. In sales, costs were cut in the wrong areas. The business that I knew so well from my time here was damaged. The Foxton's USP of delivering results for customers was heavily diluted and many of the fundamentals of estate agency are lacking. Since 2016, market share has declined from around 4.5% to around 3.4%. And even before rejoining the company, it was clear to me that Foxton's was no longer a leading player in core London markets. Market share loss has disproportionately impacted higher value markets. further reducing the profitability of the business. Finally, the financial services business was subscale and had received little investment for over a decade, despite receiving an excess volume of lead referrals that most other mortgage brokers could only dream of there was limited growth due to insufficient advisor headcounts and outdated processes. Slide 19. Looking at some of these core operational issues a bit closer, they can be grouped into four categories. Data strategy. Estate agency processes and culture. Staffing levels and experience. And lastly, the brand. Firstly, I was surprised by our low levels of data maturity as subsequently confirmed by an external review that I've asked Microsoft to carry out this year. The architecture is outdated and not fit for purpose for a firm that aspires to be data-led. As a result, Data was not cascaded or truly understood through the business, and significant opportunity is being missed. Despite owning the largest proprietary database of customers and properties across London, poor accessibility has significantly hampered this utilization. Currently, we rely on external data of what's already in the market to identify new opportunities. By that point, we're in competition with multiple agents, also receiving the same data. Instead, we need to mine our own database in a much more sophisticated manner, cross-referencing this information with thousands of publicly available data sets to identify properties before they come to market. I'm pleased to report that we're already making very good progress here. Our data team have recently launched a propensity model to better identify and engage with potential sellers and landlords before they come to market. In addition, we've also launched a proprietary recommendation engine to better serve up a wider range of suitable properties to buyers and tenants. Both of these are version 1.0 and will significantly involve and improve as our data capabilities mature and we test and learn. In addition, I was surprised by the low level of real-time KPIs and management information available. To create business insights, support decision-making, and identify areas of weakness and opportunity. Secondly, estate agency processes are outdated and Foxton's unique culture have been diluted. As I mentioned earlier, in lettings, speed is critical. When reviewing our processes, it is very apparent that these are slowing us down and definitely limiting growth. In sales, the estate agency fundamentals that Foxton's once pioneered have fallen away and need completely rebuilding. Lastly, there has been a shift in culture away from empowered estate agents. The sales force had stopped identifying and creating property instructions opportunity and focused on cross-selling that once drove growth in lettings and financial services has largely fallen away. Thirdly, as Peter Rawlings noted at the interim results, staffing levels were significantly below the level required to service the level of inventory and customer demand across each of our businesses. This is clearly demonstrated by some of the new business KPIs I've asked our data team to generate. In tandem, the business displays unacceptably high staff turnover. This drives low tenure, insufficient experiences built up, which results in low productivity, further detracting from the culture. Lastly, the once clear Foxton's proposition of delivering results was no longer clear. And the once prominent brand is almost invisible in key markets. In a sector with high levels of competition, there are over 3,000 estate agents in London alone. And where the average consumer only interacts with agents infrequently, this has significantly hurt our positioning. Turning now to slide 20. I don't want to go through every part of this slide. However, it does highlight how core operational upgrades are required to ensure that we can deliver on our strategy. I'm pleased to report that we are moving at speed. and have made significant progress on several of these upgrades in a very short space of time. As a good early indicator, we have seen significant increase in our market share of new instructions coming to market since September. This has been achieved across both lettings and sales, as was confirmed by Rightmove. This reflects improvements across multiple areas, including a rapid change in our Salesforce culture of self-generating opportunities, better utilization of our data, and progress in increasing brand visibility. There is still a lot to do. However, I'm encouraged by the genuine level of enthusiasm across the business and by the progress that we have made in a short space of time. Slide 21. After identifying key issues across the business, it is more satisfying to look ahead and outline how we will deliver growth both strategically and operationally. As part of the review, We have also refined and refocused our strategic priorities to ensure that we can better deliver growth through the sales market cycle. A key driver is prioritizing returns from non-cyclical and reoccurring activities. Growth in lettings is core to our strategy and many of the operational and technology upgrades we have started implementing are focused here. We will continue to deliver inorganic growth through acquisitions. And you've already seen the results that we can deliver. However, the major change is the focus on delivering organic growth. This will be achieved by better maximizing our opportunity by improving let-through rates whilst using our property database to drive instruction levels and ultimately further grow market share. Together, organic and inorganic growth will deliver higher levels of non-cyclical revenue and profit and substantially improve the earnings resilience of the group. In sales, we are targeting market share growth to return to a leading position in our markets. This will position the business well to capture the upside from any sales market recovery. Furthermore, a focus on cross-selling across the group will be a key driver for supporting growth in nettings and financial services. Finally, in financial services, we will better maximize the revenue opportunity from estate agency referrals from within the group. In the first instance, this will grow revenues from new purchase mortgages and consequently increase revenue and profitability from sales transactions. And over time, these will feed through into our portfolio of long-term refinance business, creating a further growth in our high quality reoccurring revenues. Slide 22. On slide 22, we've outlined tangible objectives to measure our growth against and how these feed our medium term ambitions. In lettings, we are looking to deliver annual organic growth rates of 3 to 5%. From our acquisitions, we continue to target returns in excess of 20%. In sales, our ambition is to restore market share back to 4.5% and consequently return the business back to a leading position in core markets. In financial services, we are targeting an annual revenue growth rate of 7% to 10%. Taken together, these feed our medium-term growth ambitions of 25 to 30 million pounds of operating profit, with the range highlighting various sales market scenarios. Through maximizing the operating leverage within the business, we aim to increase our operating profit margin to above 15%. And as we progress against our strategy, we will be able to deliver shareholder cash returns in line with our capital allocation policy. The ambitions outlined above illustrate the significant value that we believe can be unlocked from the business over the medium term. Slide 24. Before wrapping up, I think it is worth outlining our investment case as presented on slide 24. Underpinning our investment case is the highly valuable market we operate in. London remains the most valuable residential market in the UK with some of the highest property prices and agent commission levels. Whilst London sales volumes have been more impacted than regional markets since 2016, the private rental sector is the largest in the UK with incredible levels of non-cyclical demand and highly compelling long-term growth prospects. Secondly, The business model is becoming increasingly resilient over time. As we focus on non-cyclical and reoccurring revenue streams, these will underpin group earnings through the cyclical sales market. Thirdly, we have a clear plan to deliver growth, both organically through operational improvements and inorganically from our well-established lettings acquisition strategy. Fourth, the business model is characterized by high levels of operating leverage. Whilst this may have worked against the group in some years, it is a clear advantage under our revenue growth focused strategy. Both 21 and 22 demonstrate that delivering a relatively small increase in revenue results in a much higher percentage growth in profit. Finally, there is significant potential from a sales market recovery from some of the depressed levels that we have seen since 2016. Ensuring the business is positioned to capitalize on this will drive revenue and profit growth. Now to finish on slide 25. In terms of outlook, as expected, it remains mixed. Non-cyclical revenues in lettings and financial services will be relatively unchanged and continue to deliver high levels of resilience. The sales market will be more challenging, reflecting weaker buyer sentiment in Q4 of last year and entering 2023 with a reduced under-offer sales pipeline. As property transactions typically take four to five months, this is expected to impact volumes throughout the majority of 2023. Whilst it is still very early to say with confidence, we have seen some signs of market improvements and we are cautiously optimistic that the latter part of this year will be less impacted. However, it is very early days and economic uncertainty will be challenging throughout the year. Above all, I hope today's presentation has given you a sense of the opportunity by unlocking the potential within business. The operational review has confirmed that whilst the areas of the business we need rebuilding, the foundations remain strong. As an example, despite the period of underperformance, the Lettings acquisition programme has been very successful, showcasing that the operating platform is genuinely best in sector. And I was very pleased to announce just yesterday the acquisition of Atkinson MacLeod, showing continued progress against our strategy at speed. The refocused strategic priorities ensure that we can deliver through the sales market cycles and create a business with a more dependable level of earnings. And this belief is echoed within the growth ambitions set out today to deliver 25 to 30 million pounds of operating profit over the medium term and deliver shareholder value creation. Thank you all very much for joining us today. And I look forward to speaking with many of you in the coming weeks. I will now pass back to the operator for any questions you may have.