Mondi plc

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call at short notice. As said, I'm Andrew King, Group CEO, and with me is Mike Powell, our Group CFO. As you all have seen from our statement, the challenging market environment we spoke about at our half-year results in July has continued through the third quarter. This resulted in an underlying EBITDA of $223 million for the quarter. Across the period, we saw subdued market demand impacting sales volumes in the upstream pulp and paper businesses in particular. And since we last reported results at the end of July, we've also seen further pulp and paper price declines across most grades. Our packaging converting operations delivered a stable performance when compared to the prior quarter, despite this difficult backdrop. Challenging trading conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of this year as demand side confidence remains fragile. Furthermore, key markets remain in oversupply and current selling prices are lower than the third quarter averages. While we remain confident in the structural drivers underpinning through cycle growth in our packaging solutions, we are equally cognizant of the impact of the current prolonged cyclical downturn on near-term performance. In response, we have intensified our focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and cash generation, mitigating impact of the current softer markets while ensuring we are well-positioned to capture growth and deliver enhanced returns when favorable conditions return. In this context, in the six months since completing the acquisition of Schumacher, we have identified an additional 10 million of cost synergies taking the total identified synergies to 32 million euros. As a further step to streamline our organization, facilitate cost takeout and drive synergies across our pulp and paper businesses in particular, we are combining our uncoated fine paper business with our corrugated packaging business unit. Going forward then, we'll be organized into two business units in large corrugated packaging and flexible packaging, which remains unchanged. All our capacity expansion projects are ramping up and we remain confident that they are cost competitive, deliver significant integration benefits, and once fully optimized will deliver mid-teen, mid-cycle returns. However, near-term profitability is heavily influenced by prevailing market conditions, meaning the net incremental contribution to full year 2025 EBITDA is now expected to be around 30 million euros. We are ensuring that all ongoing capital expenditure is focused on stay-in-business CapEx and cost optimization opportunities. As you will know, the remaining major capacity expansion project we have been working on is the new SAC craft paper machine at our Hinton Mill in Canada. We have decided to put this project on hold, but we retain the full optionality to invest when market conditions improve. We are confident these steps will enable us to navigate current headwinds, build a stronger, more efficient operating platform, and drive free cash flow. This will protect value today and enhance returns when market conditions improve. With that short introduction, I'm happy to take questions. Mike and I are both here to take questions, so we'll hand back to the operator. Thank you.

Thank you. Just to remind our audience, please, if you wish to ask a question, use the raise hand function and be invited to unmute and ask your question live. Our first question for you comes from Charlie Muir Sounds. Charlie, please unmute and go ahead and ask your question.

Good morning, guys. Can you hear me OK? We can. Thank you, Charlie. Great. Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my questions. So I had two, please. Firstly, you talk about increased focus on cost and efficiency. actions in that regard. I just wondered at this stage whether you had any particular program in mind and whether there was going to be any specific quantum of additional cost savings that you would be aiming to target and if there would be any kind of one-time charges in order to implement those changes. And then the second question relates to the weakness of demand. I think you said earlier demand in your packaging operations was stable. So it sounds like it's weakness in, you obviously mentioned pulp and paper, but also packaging materials, packaging papers themselves. So Do you get the sense that there was an element of destocking amongst your customer base going on, or are they exposed to end markets which are different to own converting operations, and therefore there's sort of uneven weakness out there? Thank you.

Thanks, Charlie. On the first question, so clearly we have a philosophy around continuous improvement. That being said, clearly at times like this one looks to accelerate wherever possible around the cost takeout initiatives. We are working through a number of programs, some of which are very much called shop floor led, part of the rationale, and we'll talk about it around the reorganization of our business units. is about driving very much a shop floor efficiency and productivity excellence initiative. And simply put, it's easier to run all those sort of things out under one umbrella. So we are doing those sort of programs, which of course are somewhat longer term in nature, but we are very confident we'll continue to of operational efficiency. I think we are good at it. We can get even better. Doesn't per se mean any one-off costs associated with that. Nearly to the extent we look at any further cost takeout opportunities, there might be some one-off costs involved, but those are difficult to quantify at this stage, and we are working through those programs at the moment. On your question about the demand side softness, I think it can't all be subscribed to a destocking. So you're right in that the converting businesses held up pretty well from a profitability perspective. But undoubtedly, there's a fight for share in those markets where Demand, it's not, I hesitate to say, it's not falling off a cliff or anything like that. It's just been grinding along in a very subdued manner. And that has caused intense competition. And of course, that has impacts on margins. But volumes are okay, but certainly not in any kind of rebound phase at this stage on the demand side at the underlying converting level. Where we are seeing softness, of course, is that translates across the value chain and up into the paper businesses. So we have been taking some downtime in our paper businesses, which of course has big profit implications because we're carrying a big fixed cost base. But that is a necessary response to what remains a very subdued land side environment and clearly coupled in certain cases space as everyone is well aware. So it's really that combination. But I wouldn't put it down to a destocking effect. I think it is a general market softness throughout the value chain.

Thanks.

Thank you. Our next question is from Lars Kjellberg at Stifel. Lars, please unmute and go ahead and ask your question.

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. Just want to come back a bit just to understand what you said about demand. Did you see a sequential weakening market in the third quarter versus Q2? Second question is about the maintenance shots you talked about extending them, but can give us a sense of, call it the maintenance costs in the quarter and what we expect to have on the balance of the year. Also, FX, does that play a role here? There's been some significant movements, of course, and the dollar has been particularly weak. Does that play a role? And the final question is about the restructuring that you talked about of merging the fine paper business with the sort of corrugated packaging business business. I guess there is some overlap at Resembrook and Richards Bay, but from the outside, of course, that reduces the visibility in your earning space. So what are the real benefits from bringing those two businesses together?

Thanks, Lars. Let me start with your second and third question on maintenance and FX. So on maintenance, we have extended the shuts due to the subject demand situation. At the half year, I guided there would be about 40 million in Q3 and 40 million in Q4. We talk about 50 million in Q3, and I'd expect the same roughly number in Q4. So maintenance shuts up 10 in both quarters. In terms of FX, yeah, the dollar continues, as you say. It's probably, again, in the round quarter. probably 5 million. It's always a difficult number because we sell in a number of currencies that are sort of dollar-pegged. So the bigger issue is the wider economic impact of the dollar and the economic policies behind it. But in the quarter, it's probably a 5 million impact. As I say, it's quite a difficult number to really pin down, but it's of that order at last.

Andrew? Yeah, and I'll just add on the currency story last. I mean, clearly it has a a bigger impact in a softer demand environment because invariably what happens is to the extent your core home markets are softer, that invariably means you typically export a bit more. And of course, exporting into a weaker dollar pricing has negative mixed effects. So it is an important driver in that context, probably more so than the straight transactional exposures that Mike referred to. Just in terms of your first question on the demand side weakness, is it how much does it look sequentially? I mean, firstly, very clearly, as you could imagine, it's only just the beginning of October. We don't have all the industry numbers, so it's always dangerous to just quote our numbers in isolation because, of course, we don't know how The market shares and the like have been moving over this period. I don't suggest it's got materially worse, particularly in the packaging side. It just hasn't got better. And, you know, I think July was a relatively weak month for the industry. been published. So, you know, simply because we don't know exactly what the industry numbers look like. But I would just suggest that there's been this continued weakness on the corrugated side, which hasn't got worse, just hasn't got better. Fine paper, really, I think, you know, you saw a sharp decline in demand over the first half. That certainly hasn't recovered into the second half. And frankly, there's an intense fight for share in a shrinking market that's taking place at the moment, exacerbated by the weak pulp price, because of course the weak pulp price flattens out the cost curve, gives more oxygen to the higher cost unintegrated producers, and that is now translating into margin pressures with both pulp that it's having on paper prices. And then in craft paper, again, if you look at the underlying bag demand, it's okay. Craft paper demand in the first half was quite weak, and I think that's continued into the second half. And again, that is now putting pressure on pricing. And that probably is, according to the news, relative to what we have seen at the half year. Sorry, and then your last point on the reorganization of the business units. I appreciate there's the external reporting issues there, but very clearly, we report as we run the business. We've run on a value chain basis and we think that that's appropriate because that gives the necessary customers innovation and development. And we've got a lot of exciting work that we are doing in that regard and will continue to do. But at the same time, we recognize that having our pulp and paper business operations in three different business units adds a degree of complexity. And the reality is the two biggest operations in uncoated fine paper are mixed use mills. It's Rajan Barak in Slovakia, which produces both container board and fine paper, and it's Richard's Bay in South Africa, which is actually not even a fine paper mill, it's pulp and container board. Frankly, it makes sense to run those under one system, combined with the big container board operations, obviously Sweet Sheet being the flagship there, Duino, Coppia, and the others. So it really facilitates frankly, from an operational perspective, driving best practice across our pulp and paper mills. As I say, we are implementing at the moment a shop floor operating system. And I think that exercise in itself showed up some of the additional complexities we had by having, as I say, those mills in different business units. And this simply allows us to be much more efficient in driving those processes forward. driving our businesses to the next level of operational excellence. So that is the motivation behind it. Obviously, that also allows some streamlining of the corporate overhead and assuring that we're ready to move faster and more agile than we've been before. So it's for all of those reasons that we are combining those two businesses into a Well, you've got all the history of the two businesses. Simply put, if you add those two numbers together, then you get the combined business. So it's very easy to compare historic performance versus what we'll be reporting on going forward. And just to add finally to that, clearly the direction of travel for our growth is in our packaging businesses, and that's where we invest in for growth, and that's where we'll continue to do so. So those are the reasons we did it. I appreciate that has a reporting implication, but no doubt Mike and Fiona will help you understand the respective numbers there.

Thank you, Lars. Thank you. Our next raised hand is from Brian Morgan at RMB Morgan Stanley. Brian, please unmute and go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thanks very much for the time. Two questions, if I may. Andrew, in the past, we've spoken about craft liner imports coming in from the US, typically when the dollar's weaker. Are you seeing that this time?

Yes and no. So there definitely, as you say, there typically is some craft liner coming from the US most of the time. You would have expected maybe more with the current dollar weakness, but in a sense, I think that is not happening simply because You know, the positive on that side is really the closures in the US, I think, have tightened up the US market. And rightly, I think most of the US producers saw exports as not being where you should sort of structurally position yourself. And so I suspect a lot of the capacity reductions have targeted reducing their reliance on exports. And that's probably manifesting in the fact that despite the weaker dollar, you're not really seeing a big surge of imports that you might have expected in a different world.

That's good. Thank you, Andrew. And then the question is on dividend, if I may. So quite a bad free cash flow negative situation this year, obviously with all the projects that you spent on, and I suppose they're all in the rearview mirror now. Is the dividend from last year still intact, or should we be thinking about a lower dividend year on year?

No, Brian, I mean, I think you said at the half year, you know, we always look at the dividend at the end of the year as a board. We'll do that again. Clearly, you've seen in the release and Andrew's commented about the focus on cash, the capex number for FY26, at least the guidance I've given out. And you've also heard us talk about Hinton today. penciled in for FY27 isn't going to flow out now and clearly the internal focus is very much around cash delivery so I think we'll look at it in the round as we always do we've got a good balance sheet still clearly the net debt is the controllable to some extent and the EBITDA moves are frankly three to four years um you know our job is to as you say focus on that free cash um and the capital allocation within it and for the dividend we'll have a look at it at the end of the year it's an important part of our capital stack but we'll clearly uh we'll we'll have a look where the economy uh is towards the end of uh middle of february probably

Thanks, Mike. Very importantly, as Mike says, on the CapEx, we in a way have the luxury of being able to pull back without mortgaging the upside that we are confident will come. But clearly in the here and now, the focus is very much on staying business CapEx, cost optimization, but clearly the capacity is in where it's now about fully utilizing it.

Thanks, Mike. Very good. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Cole Hathorn at Jefferies. Cole, please unmute and go ahead.

Morning. Thanks for taking the question. Can I just follow up on the major CapEx projects? You know, the guidance now moving down to 30 million contribution. Is there any colour you can give on to 2026? And then similarly, I know it's early, but I'm sure you're starting to think about the 2026 year. Could you start talking about some of the positive moving parts of And, you know, what will be the sequential contributors to EBITDA for 2026 from here? Thank you.

Yeah, Carlos, Mike, just on the first one, I mean, it's pretty difficult because, of course, it relates to the second part of your question. I mean, very simply put, if you think of the projects, we're very sort of pleased. So where we've got to in terms of the build and the ramp up, clearly the commercial and the pricing is, And of course, those projects are probably 20% of the capital employed of the group. So they get affected just as the rest of the group does. So it'll depend on the dynamics into 2026, what that number plans out to be. Andrew, do you want to touch on thoughts around next year?

Yeah, I think, Carl, we're in a world which is extremely difficult to predict at the moment. I think everyone felt that at the beginning of this year, there was some upward momentum. I mean, you're certainly seeing it in the pricing and dynamic. We're seeing it in, frankly, the volume dynamic as well. And what gives me confidence is we are still seeing good volume growth in our converting businesses, albeit not what we were anticipating earlier this year. And clearly, as always, packaging consumption is a function of the macroeconomic backdrop. And Europe in particular remains very muted. I think the big question is what changes in that regard. And clearly, if one started to see some consumer confidence returning, So manufacturing confidence returning, that can change things quite quickly. But that is clearly the single biggest driver in terms of relative profitability from one thing to the next. We are extremely confident that the structural growth dynamics that underpin our packaging offerings remain very much intact. And we're simply in the middle of what is a very prolonged downturn and one traces this downturn back to kind of end of 21 into the middle of 2022 when demand side started to soften and really we've been in a very protracted period now of slowdown. So, you know, clearly that is the single biggest driver behind what might impact the year-on-year profitability. We caution that going into Q4, we're not seeing anything on that front at the moment, and so hence why we have to be cautious about the short-term outlook. But again, we are very confident in the moving to growth dynamic in the packaging businesses that we are well invested in and have exposure to the upside. In the short term, clearly our job is to make sure around controlling what we can in terms of the driving costs down, driving productivity, and ensuring we are best placed because the world does recover. Clearly, in terms of the long-term bridges, it's very difficult to say at this point, but obviously, as Mike already said, on the CapEx front, it is a function of how the market develops in addition to the self-help, which we'll always naturally cover as we ramp these things up, the likes volumes coming through um so we still have to to to optimize all of those sort of investments from a from a ramp up perspective um and then of course we also are doing all the work on the shoe market integration you saw we up the synergy into the card cost synergy number that is the primary the big focus at the moment in addition to the commercial ramp up which is critical Um, and, um, um, yeah, I think going forward, obviously things like the mountain shuts, et cetera, as Mike's already said, we extended some of those shots this year, maybe in a better market environment, you wouldn't do that. Um, and you, and, but, um, off the top of my head, I don't think I can point to any material change in our planning around the actual technical shut component. Um, so yeah, in short, um, um, call, uh, I know it's a difficult one, but it is a function also of what one sees around the macroeconomic spectrum.

Andrew, I can then maybe just ask on costs. Is there anything that you're calling out from kind of a cost bucket or would or anything like that that you can highlight? And then I know demand is something that you can't control, but we have seen across the industry, including all the Nordics players, we've seen some of the smaller guys also extend and take commercial downtime in a lot of their facilities. Do you think we're finally at a point now where the industry just has to close capacity?

Yeah, I think, was your question on input costs, Carl? I think it was.

Yes, input costs first. Thank you.

Sorry, I know that's sort of Monday. is pretty benign, so pretty flat on input costs, which I think, again, gives you some sign that the economy, particularly around Europe, is flat. We have seen some relief, obviously, on PFR, and I also said at the half that our own competitive and better than the competition are coming through. So the second half is panning out, as we thought, small positives. But frankly, we'll take those right now. We just need to work hard on it.

Yeah, and on the capacity closures, I mean, absolutely, there's huge pressure right now. And frankly, every industry profitability levels more broadly are such that there's every incentive for closures. is recycled container board. I know everyone has their own calculations, but you can easily see 30, 40% of the industry right now is cash negative, I would say, in terms of if you look at the cost curve, that is clearly not a sustainable position. As you know, there have been some movements in that regard. I suspect on that front. You know, as you would expect, we always look at our own portfolio in that regard. But, you know, I stress that our operations are well positioned on the cost curve. And, you know, also we have a big virgin position, which is a different dynamic. It's not really a cost dynamic, sorry, a supply side dynamic, other than the the knock-on effect of the overcapacity in the recycled containable. So there's huge incentive for closures. There's every reason to believe there should be four more closures. And the longer the situation currently prevails, the greater the pressure there is for those closures to take place. And in other sectors, I would say in this, That's a market where you do have the big industrial exposures, which clearly have more cyclical pressures than typical consumer applications. And so there I see it almost purely a demand-side syndicality issue. At the same time, it's incumbent on us to manage based on what the market is currently doing. as I say, doubling down our efforts around cost of productivity and the like, as you would expect, and responding to the market conditions in the most agile way. And then maybe finally on the fine paper side, clearly, as I said earlier, the cost curve in Europe has flattened out given the decline in pulp prices. to drive margins in the fine paper business in Europe, because when pulp prices go down, the high-cost, unintegrated producers get some relief. But unfortunately, at the moment, all that that means is there's a competition for, say, the smaller market that now exists, given the demand-side pressures. a lot of margin pressure across the industry. And I will be surprised to see if there will be more closures on that front as well. So, yeah, I think that's in a nutshell where we see it.

Thanks, Col. Thank you. Our next raise hand is from Pallav Mittal at Barclays. Pallav, please unmute and go ahead.

So a couple of questions. If I recall correctly, at the half year results, you were saying we could potentially see the spread between Craftliner and Testliner widening. And if I look at the DC indices, Craftliner actually has been more stable than Testliner over the last few months and has not declined as much. But today you're talking about declining selling prices. So are you saying that these indicers are not capturing the actual and are lagging behind? So that's the first question. And then secondly, just if you could confirm on your forestry fair value gain for the full year, do you still expect around 60 million, the long-term average for the full year is fair?

Yeah, thanks, Palantir. On the fair value, I mean, that's my best guess today. You know, we booked 20 in Q3. I would expect about 20. It is a variable number, I have to say, depends on growth rates, oil prices, etc. So as we know from history, it's a pretty volatile number. But sat here today, if everything doesn't change, which in this world is quite difficult to say, i'd expect another 20 um but it is a it is a best guess and it's a volatile number uh depending on the number of factors which which occur at balance sheet date so it's a it's a spot calculation of the balance sheet but if you want to plug a number and plug that in but it's uh but it's a variable number yes and and um on the craft line and test liner spread i didn't follow the exact end of the question but i think the question was very much um

In the face of the test line that declines, what's been happening with the craft liner? Yes, the fact is the spread has widened, but at the same time, craft liner prices have been coming off. I think if you look at the kind of index data and things like that, you're probably looking at over the last three months, something like 90 euros a tonne-ish. Test liner price declines, craft liner. going to obviously give our own pricing. So yes, Kraft Liner has held up better than Test Liner, as one would expect, given the supply side dynamics that exist in the two different markets. But at the same time, it is called a substitution between the two on the margin. And the supply overhang in Test Liner has had Okay, thank you.

Thanks, Colin. Operator? Thank you. Our next question is from James Twyman at Prescient Securities. James, please unmute and go ahead.

Yeah, thank you very much for the call. Just focus a little on the sack paper business. Prices have been holding up very well. It looks like they were flat in Q3. So I think the new information you're coming out with today seems to be about sack paper prices now starting to fall, which would imply that's more of a Q4 factor. Could you talk around that and whether the fall is sort of marginal, as you're seeing in some of the other paper grades, or whether it is significant for Q4? Thanks.

Thanks, James. Yeah, I mean, there's As you know, in fact, the indices only come out kind of once a quarter. So you don't see the real price, real live pricing for the better term. There has been some price erosion through Q3. Again, one has to be careful to generalize because obviously different markets are differently impacted. But there has been some price erosion. I mean, if you look at it from the As you well know, prices were going up through the first half of the year, and then they've been coming down a little bit in Q3 and then getting into Q4 as well. From peak to now, it's kind of 30 to 50 euros, that order of magnitude price declines. But obviously the peak was only there for a short period of time. So those indices... where clearly pricing is much more dynamic than the typically more stable operating environment.

Thank you very much. If I could just quickly follow up. Regarding the merger of these two divisions, there must be obviously a reason for it, which must be reducing costs. What sort of scale of costs are you thinking? I mean, my impression must be that it's pretty marginal, looking at the assets there.

Yes. Yeah, I think, you know, James, I spoke hopefully at length about the rationale for that reorganization. It's not simply a headline cost takeout thing. It's about driving the operational efficiencies across particularly the pulp and paper operations. As I said, we have the two biggest operations in fine paper are actually mixed use. They are it's much easier for us to run it in a single business unit and drive all the important initiatives around shop floor, operational excellence programs and the like, where clearly there's huge commonality across those different pulp mills because the paper makers would hate me for saying this, but they're taking wood in one end and they produce a paper out the other. One of them is white, the other is brown. I don't want to belittle that because, of course, then when you sell it, it's sold into very different channels. And, of course, we fully respect that and we will be continuing to optimize our sales channels into their respective different customer bases. But importantly, I think there's an opportunity for us to simplify the further improvement in our operational excellence, which is maybe the lifeblood of particularly the pulp and paper mills.

Thank you very much. Thank you. We now take our final question from Lewis Roxburgh at Goodbody. Lewis, please unmute and go ahead.

Morning, guys. Just two questions for me. Just on the capacity ramp up, just as everything progressing as planned in terms of getting those assets fully operational, just wondering if you're starting to see the efficiencies come through there. Are the costs as expected and maybe some of the benefits of going through this investment under weaker market conditions? And then just secondly, just on the moving parts in Q3, just breaking out the performance of corrugated and flexible packaging and whether that changes anything from a long-term standpoint, particularly in light of the dynamic of oversupply. Thanks.

Yeah. This is on the capacity. No, I mean, you know, we, the sort of technical builds are behind us. Clearly it always takes, I mean, in the best of worlds, two, three years to optimize the ramp up of production. Clearly when it comes to profit optimizing, call it the commercials around that, it's that much harder in a typical market environment. By that, I mean, you introduce volumes into markets which are maybe further away than your core markets, and that has an impact on net delivered price over and above whatever the benchmark price is doing in the local markets. And further to those discussions we had earlier about the FX effect, those sort of things also play into it. So that's very much the focus. And, of course, then the cost structure itself, needs to be optimized over time because again you don't just turn these things on and all the costs are fully optimized so we are working on those at the moment we're working on obviously developing out the commercial offering alongside the technical ramp up that takes place but that's you know we focus here very much on the paper machines in the converting businesses where as you know we've also invested again you know we very confident in the And like, again, it's about making sure you bring that volume into the markets in a sustainable and disciplined way. And that is what we are currently working on at the moment. But very clearly, we make no bones about the fact that that is a particular challenge in what is this current long downturn. those projects. And then finally, you know, this is a, this is a trading update. We're not going to give explicit sort of breakdowns by, by business segments in terms of the profitability. But having said all that, I mean, as we said, the packaging businesses, the converting businesses were actually flat half, I mean, sorry, quarter on quarter on a sequential basis, which I think in the current environment is actually all correct for achieving that. At the same time, you know, the paper businesses, yes, sorry, the packaging paper business is not where they should be. But at the same time, one really understands it in the context of a very difficult market environment. Fine paper, you know, we are aware of the structural challenges. And of course, the current economic downturn is only exacerbated if that's in the short term. There is intense competition that is putting pressure on. I don't know what it is, somewhere around 200 euros a tonne over the last couple of few months. Now, it seems as though there's a bit of a floor forming there. And as I'm sure you've seen, some of the bigger Brazilian producers are pushing across increases at the moment. And we'll see how that unfolds over the coming months. So I hope that gives some colour. Very good. Well, I think we've taken enough of everyone's time. I just wanted to finish by saying, you know, clearly in this current world, we remain relentlessly focused on margin management, on cost optimization, and these continuous improvement initiatives to protect our value today. But importantly, I also want to stress we do remain well positioned to benefit When conditions improve, we have a low cost asset base, very well invested and broad product offering. And with our fully integrated business model, this continues to provide resilience even in the current environment and opportunity in the long term. So with that, we remain extremely confident in the long term sustainable growth fundamentals of our packaging businesses and our ability to deliver for shareholders. So With that, I thank you very much for your attention. If there's any other questions during the day, please feel free to reach out to the team who are available throughout the day. So thank you very much, and we'll close the call then.