NEXT plc

Good morning to everybody. Before I hand it over to Simon, just a few comments. Two long-serving board members, Jane Shields and Jonathan Bewes, will be stepping down from our board of directors in May. Jane has worked for Next more than 40 years. You don't see that much anymore, do you? more than 40 years and been on the board of directors since 2013. jane's contribution to the success of the company has been substantial both at the operational level and certainly at the board level i would just say i think jane represents the best qualities of what we have at next plc Jonathan Buse has been a board member for nine and a half years and he has been senior independent director and chairman of the audit committee and he's made significant contribution so I'd say Jonathan many thanks for your work and your service on the board I would like to welcome two new board members, Annette Court and Jenny Mundey, who will be joining the board. Annette started on March 1st, and Jenny will be starting on April 1st, and both will stand for election at the May AGM. As you've seen, the results for the year ended 2026 are very good, and it certainly reflects the broad strength of the group. as we outperform in all areas be it retail or online uk and certainly in the international markets before i turn over to simon i would like to recognize and thank our more than 40 000 employees globally for their daily decision making and basically making things happen for next throughout the world

Right, good morning everybody. Slight change of order to things today, because I know some people like to slip away early, so I'm going to give you the punchline at the beginning. Punchline is about next year, rather than all the stuff about last year. And in terms of next year, the big news today was that there was no news. We've held our targets, and you could look at that 4.5%. In fact, I think most people did look at it in January and think that it was pessimistic. um and if you had only looked at our uk sales in the eight weeks in the run-up to um our announcement then you would definitely agree that that was a pessimistic assessment um however if you were to look at what's going on in the middle east and the potential knock-on effects in the uk you could argue that it was optimistic and just in terms of the middle east i suppose the first thing today in terms of the uk the numbers we had those first eight weeks did not include the really big numbers we hit as the weather improved this time last year we got some significant benefit from an early summer and we're just about to hit those those numbers now in terms of the middle east it represents six percent of our total sales we lost it for the first week of the conflict we lost virtually all the sales because it was our operations stopped working we were we're now serving all of the territories in the Middle East a few of them are slightly longer lead times but because we've got a hub in the Middle East we are able to service them directly from stock based in the Middle East which means we're not dependent on air freight for anything other than replenishment and we are shipping stock to the Middle East on replenish and replenishment runs at the moment but that comes at a cost and in terms of the cost of the conflict we've quantified that at 15 million pounds and that's 15 million pounds for three months assuming that the current levels of surcharges disruption oil prices last for three months that could be wildly optimistic or it could be pessimistic we don't know the in terms of the breakdown of that cost eight million of it comes from the outbound stock from the UK to our customers overseas of the 8 million 5 million of it is Middle East costs the rest are air freight surcharges to the rest of the world we then got inbound costs this is mainly the surcharge on container rates as a result of fuel price increases that's around 4 million and then UK energy costs we anticipate incurring additional costs around 3 million and what I should stress is that those numbers are very volatile first of all they're just throwing forward the costs we have today and the second thing I should say is that we've offset all of them by cost savings or margin gains that we've identified since January around eight nine million from margin gains and the balance from lower Revenue expenditure mainly systems the biggest difference between now and January is that I would bought our systems budget down by around six six million pounds in terms of don't take that number and Multiply it by three to get to the cost of the rest of the year because if it looks like this is going to persist We will begin to pass through those costs to consumers and specifically in the affected regions, but also in the UK in terms of UK prices that would mean prices going up between one and two percent from where they are today in probably june july if things persist the much bigger worry if you want things to worry about which obviously you do is the cost of goods because things like polyester and energy costs are a huge percentage energy costs a big percentage of fabric as is obviously polyester so I think you could see significantly larger increases in cost of goods coming through probably October November is when those will begin to hit down again if the conflict persists so that sort of business affected costs and the potential impact on selling prices covered the one thing I should say about that four and a half percent is just a reminder that at this time last year we were our guidance was at five percent so the four and a half percent guidance does not limit our ability to outperform that number now i think yeah with things in the world as they are i think that's unlikely but what i want to stress is a cautious approach to a sales budget because we're always buying markdown stock and we can eat into it a cautious approach to sales budget always leaves us with the potential to beat budget if if the demand is there moving on to last year and starting with the pnl and just remind you this is all on a 52 week basis and not consolidated total group sales up 10.8 percent total full price next sales up 10.9 percent in terms of breakdown retail stores up three and a half percent in many ways that's the most remarkable number here and we think that that number is the one that is most flattered by the good weather in summer and the disruption to a major competitor and we'll talk about each one of those as we go through in terms of profit profit up 13.9 and the vast majority of the difference between the growth in sales and the growth in profit is about leverage over fixed overheads and some margin gains as a result of improved clearance of drop stock through directory online profit before tax up 14.5% the drop in interest charge here is all about the fact that we didn't buy back shares during the year so the cash that we accumulated during the year had interest on it that came to around 8 million so that reverses out in the year ahead and obviously you get back in earnings enhancement what you lose by way of P&L more than what you lose from the P&L cost in terms of the quality of earnings good quality of earnings there was a very big non-cash gain from 20 million release of bad debt provision that meant that our finance department worked even harder than usual to find every little nook and cranny of the business to check that all of our provisions were where they should be and that we had enough impairments for our small businesses so we've taken another 14 million of impairment costs there to offset that 20 million or has offset it, not too offset it obviously and then some foreign exchange gains just on the instruments that carry over from one side of the year to the other um earnings per share up 17 the main inc difference between last year's um profit for tax and eps are is the boost from the previous year's share buybacks we didn't buy many shares back last year ordinary dividend up by 15 percent that gets us back to cover of around 2.8 times which is where we want to be and uh three pound sixties of a um return to shareholders by way of capital by b share scheme and that is in place of the buyback because we were out of the market we're now back in the market thank you very much for your help with that and all of the numbers that we'll tell you today will be on the basis that we can continue to buy shares throughout the year terms of the cash flow on a consolidated basis and this is looking at a 53 week year 147 million from profits another 24 million from the 53rd week of cash in terms not much change in depreciation that's gone up much less than sales capex up by 17 million slightly less than we forecast in the half year and that's all about the timing of store capex so 168 million last year the really interesting number is the number this year because we've we've gone back and we've significantly increased our estimate of what we'll spend this year and all of the increase is in warehouses so i think we'll spend 237 million this year it's all about our elmstall 3 warehouse i'm going to go into lots of detail later on which is something to look forward to but just to say this is a good thing this is because we're growing our sales faster than we expected in terms of the throwing that forward because this is a sort of three-year investment program in warehousing we're looking at capex at around the 250 million level for the next three years we think you might look at that and worry that next has become fundamentally more capital consumptive your business is entering the phase of strong capital consumption actually and this is our history of capex over the last 20 years if you look at capex as a percentage of profit which is the right measure what you can see is that the nineteen point six percent were at this year is just below the last 20 year average so fundamentally the business is not more capital consumptive it's just that in periods of strong growth you have to invest more in the periods of fallow years you invest less and I think the other really important thing that this graph demonstrates is that if you look at the data for long enough and hard enough you can always find the number you want working capital at 46 million the real difference here is the 19 million increase that our aggregated partners owe us that is all as a result of our sales increasing on their website they take the sales take their commission hand on a month later the sales so there is a debt there the faster that grows the bigger that grows all the other movements in working capital will run off there was a one-off movement in the timing of aggregator payments we got benefit last year from that we get this benefit this year cash in transit this is a new accounting standard that we have rushed to embrace and it's actually very sensible it means in previous accounts we had accounted for credit card sales as if they were cash and not accounted for three days that the credit card companies take to pay us so this accounts for that conforms with new accounting standards and also I think for me in the last 25 years a bit of a landmark moment as well because this is the first change in accounting standards that I really agree with in terms of surplus cash 129 million of surplus cash distribution to shareholders 221 million the difference between that the 93 million pounds difference is that last year Previously, the year before last, we were accumulating cash on the balance sheet, 40 million cash accumulation in anticipation of paying down the bond. This year we got the bond away and we've returned our leverage to its historic norms at round point 63 and so there is a cash of about 53 more of debt funding that difference. sense of stock, stock up 8.8% the next stock as at week 52 was up 7% so broadly in line with our sales increase you'll notice for the last I think three or four sets of results we've shown stock increases much greater than sales and what you can see from this is that those increases have stopped but we haven't reversed them out we're going to keep a little bit of extra cover in the business in anticipation of the sort of disruptions that we've seen over the last few years potentially happening again we think it's better to have a little bit more cover we didn't suffer from it last year In terms of custom receivables, custom receivables are up 2%. You would expect those to be up much more than 2% given the growth in our credit sales at 5.8%. The reason that we haven't got that growth is because our debtor days continue to reduce. They've reduced by about 3.6%, which accounts for the difference in those two numbers. the reduction in data days is reflected in much um lower rates of default and what you can see if you take a sort of pre-covered to now view you can see that deaths that our default rates have dropped 2.2 percent that is lower than the companies ever had as certainly as long as i work for the business we've never seen default rates that low that 51% reduction is a little bit deceptive it's not because 51% fewer customers are defaulting actually the numbers of customers defaulting is around 8% what's the big difference is the balance they're defaulting at and this is the result of much tighter and better credit controls that we've implemented over the last few years and one of the sort of advantages of some of the machine learning algorithms we've had and just greater vigilance in terms of provisions we're still comfortably but not over provided 6.9% as against default rate of 2.2 so we've still got room for that to move the other way if it does in terms of other debtors I've talked about international aggregators talked about cash in transit the 20 million of interest-free credit is because last year we switched to funding our own interest-free credit for furniture in stores that hadn't for previous year that didn't fully annualize until last year so the tail end of that cash outflow is what you're seeing in that 20 million in terms of creditors up nine percent broadly in line with sales what you'd expect in terms of net debt, net debt up 8%, I'm going to talk in a lot more detail about that in a moment, and then in terms of net assets, increase of £26 million. It's only £26 million and that's what you'd expect because the vast majority of surplus cash we have rightly given back to shareholders. in terms of debt the 713 was lower than where we targeted year-end debt that's all about timing of payments so we targeted 739 of year-end debt and leverage of 0.63 which is where we is it we think is a good place for a retailer of our type to be in terms of inflows in the year we expect 978 million of cash inflow capex and dividends of 237 300 million respectively 500 million returned to shareholders through buybacks or other means and that would get us back to the 0.63 leverage at 790 million in terms of buybacks we've bought 196 million pounds to date and our plan is to continue that evenly through the rest of the year terms of funding started the year with 1.2 billion of funding this year 114 million of 2026 bond is repaid that leaves us at peak with 205 million of headroom we think that's sufficient for the business but if market conditions are right which they're not at the moment but if market conditions are right we will almost certainly issue another bond between two and three hundred million or look to increase our RCF to give us a little bit more headroom moving on to retail we still had a good year total sales up 2.4 percent full price sales up 3.5 percent the difference was the fact that we pushed more of our clearance sales through online and out of retail new space gave us 1.2 percent underlying light flights of 2.3 percent up which is in context the last 10 years a very good number uh... profit down five percent which is given how strong the sales were a very disappointing number when you look at the change in margin of point eight that all is down to one factor and one factor alone if you look at the cost of national insurance and the increase in national living wage and the numbers of the young people who moved on to the higher rates the total cost of that was one point four percent so had wages risen in line with sales then we would have seen flat margins positive margins actually terms of new space and there's a a little bit of a story here i softened you up for this six months ago so um there should be no surprise we missed our sales targets on the stores that we opened by 12 and this is not because we had one big store that missed it this was i think 12 out of 15 stores missed their their target what that meant was that although we were comfortably within our profitability target we weren't we missed our payback target i don't think the miss in target and the missing 24 months are entirely unrelated I think in reality our sales team who put the estimates on the stores pushed the sales as far as they felt comfortable in order to hit those criteria to get the shops open and in hindsight that was a mistake but as it turns out it was a very profitable mistake because if we look at the amount of profit those stores are making it's six million pounds of profit over 30 percent internal rate of return and if the landlords came back to us and said i'll tell you what you can have the shops back and we'll give you all your capital back do you want it my answer that would be no so i think we've we've come to a bit of a big decision is that either we say that we're just in an environment where like for likes per square foot over the last 10 years down 30 and shop that costs up 70 we either have to say we won't take advantage of any opportunities to open new space or we'll change our criteria and we've opted to move the goal posts we don't think these are crazy crazy levels of risk we said internal rates of return at 27% which equates to a payback around 30 months and we think that's enough to be to get the sort of returns you need from stores to pay for the risk but not so much to prevent us opening any shops going forward terms of the year ahead we're expecting the one-off gain that we got in stores from a very good summer and competitive disruption to reverse out in the in the first half we're expecting so total retail sales to be down one and a half percent with one and a half percent coming from from space profit down 6% that's around 12 million hit profit margins at 9.7% so still comfortable retail margins in terms of UK online and just to remind you I'm going to show you our UK online sales separately from international sales because the dynamics of the business are very different in terms of UK sales total sales are up 10.2% full-price 8.7% the difference was all driven by the increased warehouse capacity because we had more warehouse capacity we were able to put more of our clearance stock online both in the UK and overseas that was more profitable than putting it through the retail stores but that's what accounts for the difference in terms of the balance of trade just over half our business online is now next brands and wholly owned brands which are a full margin another nine percent and then third part is around a third in terms of the growth of those areas what you can see is wholly owned brands and licenses had an exceptional year I'm going to talk a lot more about that later I think the exciting thing for us was the fact that the next brand despite the increased competition from brands that we own the next brand still managed to move forward which for us is confirmation to some degree that we're not just competing with ourselves as we add new brands to the website in terms of margin margin moved forward 18.2 percent in terms of where the margin gain was made what this what these lines show is the difference between what's happened to the next brand margin and the non-next brand margin you can see pretty much all the gain has come in the non-next brands so i'm doing mental gymnastics where we sort of change the axes and just walk forward the uk online next brand profitability see there's a no score draw on gross margin warehouse and distribution is flat but there are a lot of things going on there wage inflation eroded and would have eroded margin by 0.8 but leverage over fixed overheads and some of the efficiencies that we're seeing from the new warehouse pay for that and then marketing and technology slight leverage here technology we're now beginning to get to the point where our sales our costs are not rising anything like as fast as sales that's good news and marketing is a surprise there we have significantly increased our marketing budget but not by as much as sales in terms of the next the non-next brands two things a gain of half a percent on gross margin two things going on there the elimination of unprofitable brands where the commission rate was too low and weeding out some of the less profitable lines and there we said to our partners basically there's a choice either we can't sell your product or we might have to put the commission up a bit on the whole they opt for the latter and then because our wholly owned brands are growing much faster than third-party brands and we make more margin on them that pushes the mix the margin mix up big gain on warehousing and distribution here and that's because wage inflation loss is lower on the branded goods because they're more expensive so the labour content is lower they're growing faster so leverage over fixed overheads and the efficiencies are higher and because we've weeded out some of the high returning low average selling price items we're seeing as a result of that we see another 0.4% improvement in margin so non-next brand is still a long way behind next brand in terms of profitability but they have moved forward significantly in terms of the year ahead we expect UK online growth to be 4.6% margin nudge forward to 18.8 that's mainly about reversing out large staff incentive payments for this year as a result of having such a good year so it's not it's not a cost it's not a an operational saving in terms of international business international sales 35 at full price 39 in total again that's a reflection of increased capacity to sell markdown and through the online channel um i'm going to do a bit of a grand old duke of york story here and talk you up the hill and then back down so what i would have said before the middle east conference conflict is beware of the first half numbers because the first half numbers likely much better than the second half in the year ahead because last year we it dramatically increased the amount of particularly wobble brands we were selling on our overseas websites and we got a big step change increase in sales through Zalando as a result of consolidating our warehouse there that reverses out that annualizes in the second half so all things being equal you would expect the first half to be stronger than the second but obviously we've been hit by Middle East disruption just before Eid so that pretty much wipes that out which you'll see later um in terms of third party um versus next um next websites third parties around a third of the business in terms of the growth on the next direct business that was 29 of which we estimate 22 was driven by increased marketing third party aggregation up 46 percent of which 10% came from the addition of new aggregators and the existing aggregator business boosted by the consolidation in Zalando. In terms of distribution of the business across the world, Middle East still around 28%. That distribution hasn't changed dramatically. What is encouraging is that pre-conflict we were growing pretty much in every territory. terms of profit dramatic increase in profits partly driven by the sales and also an improvement in margin in terms of bought in margin the increase here is about product mix and duty savings surprisingly Although we put a lot more markdown on our website, we actually improved the rate at which we cleared it. I think that is testament to the improvement that we've made in our online operations in terms of how we handle the clearance sites and the number of countries that we have pushed clearance stock to. lot going on in warehousing the same erosion of margin from wage inflation although because overseas selling prices are on average higher than the uk not as much as the 0.8 percent erosion we saw in the uk then we get leverage over fixed overheads from sales growth a slight increase in handling charge income well in some countries where we weren't making enough margin we pushed that handling charge up a little bit and the same benefit on average selling price and returns rate through sort of forensically going through and removing high returning low average selling price items marketing big adverse movement here but that is kind of the whole point and then leverage over technology cost centers and central overheads the central overhead gain is a little bit of a one-off it's not a one-off this year it was a one-off cost last year and that was the cost of closing the german hubs i think the exciting thing about the margin walk forward is the fact that the significant increase in marketing has been paid for by the cost savings we've achieved elsewhere In terms of the year ahead, we're anticipating sales of 14.3% on a marketing spend of increase of 25%. Margin forecast, broadly flat. terms of customer analysis and this is across all of our channels UK and overseas UK credit customers were up six percent that number should be a surprise because that number has for the last 10-15 years been one or two percent the big difference here has been the growth in the uptake of our pay in three offer pay in three is where it's a kleiner type offer where if you pay off all of all of the balance in three installments you pay no interest if you don't pay it off and you choose to extend it then you pay a higher interest than you would have done on a revolving credit that that means a credit is growing much faster it's not as profitable in terms of interest income as a traditional credit account but it does significantly improve the amount of sales that we can make for those customers so that's more of a sales benefit that's driving more of a sales benefit than it is a um a credit income benefit UK cash up 10% and then overseas 31%. I should say that this doesn't include any customers that we get from aggregator businesses because obviously we don't have visibility of that. think the other surprising number here is the growth in the average sales per customer overseas you would normally expect with so many new customers coming in you would expect that number to move backwards that's what we expected at the beginning of the year it hasn't largely we think as a result of improvements we've made on our website in terms of improving conversion and average order value which i'll come on to later in terms of total platform and equity partners total profit 90 million up 13 million on last year and at the beginning of the year i think we estimated that'd be five or six so we have done significantly better in pretty much all the partner businesses than than we were expecting equity profit up nine million service profit up four million the big increase in service profit comes from the the fact that the previous year we hadn't fully annualized the onboarding of fatface from whom we get a big service income in terms of that service income from total platform very healthy margins 20 just around 20 percent profit on what we charge the clients and six around six percent profit on their sales and their online sales and which is kind of where we set out to be and although total platform is looking very exciting at the moment in terms of its numbers you shouldn't expect any big acquisitions or transactions this year for simple reason we haven't got the warehouse space to accommodate a big transaction this year which I'll talk about later terms of return on capital very healthy return on capital move forward from 17% to 23% largely there is a result of the return to profitability of Jules and growth elsewhere so Tom Jules are in the audience so thank you Tom for that 95 million profit forecast for the year ahead an increase of 5 million moving on to guidance for the full year we've already talked about the four and a half percent so I won't talk more about that retail sales we're expecting all the pain in the first half because that was the period we had the exceptional weather and gains the most from competitive disruption UK online we think will be a more even performance throughout the year. That's largely as a result of the performance. The reason we are as confident on the H1 number is because of the sales we've seen to date online in the UK. terms of total UK 1.3 percent in the first half 2.9 in the second international 14.7 in the first half 14 percent in the second if we look at the two-year growth which removes any distortion from the timing of the Zalando transaction and the increase in wobble brands on the website what you can see there is that we're anticipating 47 percent in the first half and that that is a reflection of the significant disruption we're getting in our middle eastern trade and then a return to more normality in the second half obviously big health warning there if the war carries on at its current rate we won't see the recovery in those sales that we're in the middle east that we're expecting so total full price sales up 4.5% in terms of what that means for profit in the year ahead online profit driving 76 million of profit increase 11 million decline in retail profit as a result of negative like for likes total platform and partners adding 5 million cost increases wage inflation still the biggest cost increase here but around two-thirds of what it was this time last year the reason that is quite as high as these actually it would be around if it was just wage inflation it'd be nearer 35 there is there's still two months of the nic that haven't annualized in the current year middle east conflict 15 million of costs coming in there high interest costs which i mentioned earlier that's all about the accumulation of cash last year in lieu of share buybacks and we're anticipating that our marketing spend grows eight million faster than sales in terms of cost savings employee incentives that's reversing out of large incentive payment this year for for a great year and then the margin gains are where we have already in our in the costings we've got we already can see around 0.2 percent gain in margin for both spring summer and autumn winter normally we'd give that back and reinvest it though given the circumstances we're not going to do that so that'll be 10 million and then other versus last year the difference of eight million is eight is um warehousing distribution efficiencies and stores versus our january estimate the seven seven eight million is technology that's why those that gives us 1.2 billion of profit year-end in terms of earnings per share we're expecting a smaller enhancement than last year dividend yield of 2.2% if you compare this year's expectations to last year's expectations whilst the biggest difference is the delta in profit you can see that the enhancement is significantly lower the enhancement from dividends and drive-backs is significantly lower this year than last year and that's because last year in effect we got a double benefit the shares that we would have bought back last year would have enhanced earnings this year we didn't buy back shares and we gave all the money back last year so actually dividends and share buybacks together we would expect to be to give returns for around five to five and a half percent in a normal year and that's that's what we expect it to be sort of going forward next year and beyond so that's all to say on the sort of the numbers and guidance In terms of the business itself, it's difficult to keep a handle on this because with everything going on in the world, everyone's more worried about Middle East than they are about the business. But when you look at the business itself, it's actually very exciting because all the avenues of growth we had last year, we think are still there for the year ahead. There's more to do. And if we look at the 550 million of growth and divide it, UK overseas what you can see is that actually despite all the excitement coming from overseas the UK delivered not a lot less in terms of actual growth same is true between next product and non-next branded products you can see they're exactly the same that's patterns in reverse although the percentages are very exciting on non-next brands the next brand still delivered the lion's share of growth and if you divide that into sort of four different businesses next non-next uk and overseas you can see that those numbers are remarkably similar and i think the message here is that um the low growth in the big established businesses is delivering pretty much the same amount of the growth as the very dramatic growth 79% in our smallest non-next brands overseas we think that each one of those quadrants will be positive in the year ahead and there's more to do and in terms of what's driving that growth it comes down to two things overseas it's about functional improved functionality services and most importantly marketing and across the whole business non-next and next it's about better product ranges and broader product ranges I'm going to start by talking about what we're doing to improve the most important part of the business which is the next brand and that comes down to what I've mentioned before in terms of newness quality and choice and this is a drive that we've talked about I think now for two years and it's one of those things that I'm reluctant to talk to Alice about because there are no numbers and graphs that I can give you percentage newness and all that stuff because you know if I ask the product teams for what percentage of their range is new they will give me whatever percentage I ask for because who's to say what's really new and what's not but I think the key here is that where the buying teams have scoured the world found the best trends and then most importantly backed those trends with conviction and in depth that is where we've seen the by far the biggest sales growth and where we haven't done that where we relied on last year's best sellers a little bit of a tweak here and there change the neckline change the color those those areas are the ones that have done worse and that's pretty much universally true across not just the next brand but other brands as well the customer wants newness and gone are the days where you can say you know we'll trial this new style this year and then next year we might do it in three colorways and really maximize the opportunity if you wait and see you've waited too long you're dead in the water so that's sort of newness in terms of quality and there's a lot going on here and the big thrust on quality is about fabric that is the thing that you know in terms of customer perception actually upgrading of the fabric and the base materials the yarns in knitwear that is where we've had the most success in putting increasing our fabric and this is a represents a change in the way we work in the not all areas but more and more of the areas at next are now pushing further upstream and talking to mills spinners wash houses and developing yarns and techniques and fabrics long before they decide which garments they go into and what those garments will look like and that process of pushing further upstream i think it's got a long way to go at next i think it's it's very exciting for us other retailers do do it so it's not rocket science but i think it's exciting for us i think the other sort of unintended benefit of this is that obviously the mills have to see the fashion the fashion trends first because if they don't produce the fabric you can't produce the trend so the mills and the print houses are often also a good indicator of which trends are coming and which ones are going to be strongest I think this is also a very good time for us to be investing in quality because we can see a distinct trend over the last three years and this is a gradual thing it's not dramatic of customers buying slightly fewer slightly better things it's not that they're spending more on clothing it's that they are choosing to spend that money on better products and and this bit i can give you some numbers so this is analyst delight here what the numbers what these numbers show is the underlying inflation in light flight goods so we produced the same t-shirt last year as this year and obviously we're doing less of that because it's all about units but if you look at those garments then the price inflation we've seen over the last three years is negative or very modest if you look at the sold mix the total amount of cash we've taken versus the units that we've sold the sold mix actually has moved forward and we think that the difference represents the shift in consumer preference if you have any one year that doesn't look like very much and I should say that the estimate for the year ahead is based on what we've bought obviously not what we sold because we haven't sold it yet but if you add those all together you get to numbers that do show a meaningful shift and there are two things I should stress here this isn't about just adding more expensive product to our ranges although we have increased we have looked to stretch our price architecture and to sell some more expensive garments but this is that's not been the main drive on this and in fact the biggest success we've had on improved quality is where we've significantly upgraded entry-level products to make them much better yarns or fabrics and that's where we've had the most success without increasing price or by increasing price just a modest amount in terms of non next product first of all same messages about newness choice quality are coming through in all the brands that we we can see that coming through in all the brands that we manage the bigger increase was the less exciting percentage our third party branded profit was up and that is all about one thing which is better ranges of our best brands this is not about adding brands to the website it's about getting much better selection and better depth on bestsellers from the top 20 or 30 brands that we sell in terms of the wholly owned brands and licenses is very exciting numbers at 50 nearly 50 growth in the year and i think there are a number of encouraging things um that i kind of would like to share with you today about this relatively new business What this shows, this bar shows, is the brands that we were already trading, the wholly owned brands that we had in 2022-23. It was about 177 million at that point. If we look at just those brands today, they are 53% up. That is an encouraging number in itself, but the really encouraging number is the fact that last year, those existing brands that we've owned for more than five years grew by 24%, and I think they'll grow again in the year ahead. and for us this was the acid test because relatively easy to come up with a new label and stick it in the clothing give it a bit of marketing but actually having brands that are not flashes in the pan that can be developed and continue to grow in the long term is kind of what we're trying to achieve and that looks like what we've delivered and that number in a way is all the more impressive when you bear in mind that over the last five years we've added another 29 wholly owned brands and licenses which have themselves that last year delivered 116 million pounds of margin on top again the fact that those are growing in parallel and with the next brand evidence we think that the brands we are providing are genuinely giving our customers something different and new We're estimating that the Holium Brands and License of Business grows by 22% in the year ahead. And what this all comes down to is, and apologies for the cheesy analogy, we use these slides for staff later as well, so it's multi-purpose, but we really think that Next is an amazing place to start a new brand. Or to take an old brand and relaunch it. Because when you look at it, what you need to start a new brand on next is very different from what you needed to start a new brand 20 30 even 10 years ago in terms of resources what you need is a great product team a good idea and a sourcing base and the investment the total cost that you need to invest to launch a brand and is around three million pounds and that's the cost of the people and the stock that you have to buy before you put anything on sale so the sort of money at risk is around three million pounds and the reason that that is so low is because those brands can straight away take advantage of the billions of pounds that we've invested over the last 20 or 30 years in building 16 million customers that those brands have instant access to all the websites technology data security product systems warehousing contact centers and relatively inexpensive funding and so in terms of a environment in which we can begin to develop new fashion brands we think this is very exciting all the more exciting if we can sell those brands overseas and what you can see from the international numbers is that we are getting good traction now with those brands overseas. We're launching three new brands this year. I say new, Russell & Bromley obviously isn't a new brand, but it's new to us. We've got Bohème, which is more of a sort of continental style of brand, and we'll be launching another women's wear brand, sort of top-end women's wear brand, towards the end of the year. in terms of overseas 35% growth and the driver here is functionality and marketing and start with functionality now there's a detailed table with lots of complex numbers that are hard to understand so you can read through that at your leisure but the overall message is that we have significantly improved pretty much every part of the customer experience both on the website when they pay and delivery and returns in most of the areas there's still more to do and the results again here we've got some some numbers if you look at the organic conversion rate that's the conversion rate of customers coming to the website not through marketing the average order value and the frequency of orders those numbers have significantly increased year on year last year and we think that's as a result of the improvements that we're making the nice thing about those numbers is that they are cumulative that if you get if every person lands on the website if nine percent more of them order they each order 3% more in that order and they then visit you 17% more times individual value of that customer visit significantly increases and that is what has driven the growth in marketing the fact that these two things work hand in hand it's not just about spending more money but the more effective you can make your website the more effective your marketing becomes and one of the things that has driven the marketing and one of the things that has allowed our returns to remain constant despite the dramatic increase in the amount we're spending is the fact that the website and services are so much better and just to sort of dwell on those numbers a little bit the return that we measure here and just to be clear we don't talk about RAS This is not sales, this is profit. This is the incremental profit on the incremental sales that we think we deliver from each and every campaign. They have to hit at least £1.50 and you can see the returns last year actually, despite the enormous increase in spend, were slightly higher than the previous year. That's not just about functionality and services it's also about the improvements we've made to our marketing and we continue to make to the marketing there's a long list and you can read it in the in the report but we have invested a lot of time money and people in improving the way in which we market and we can see that paying dividends next year i've mentioned already we're planning to go marketing overseas by 25 percent um now you might look at that number at 1.50 and say oh why do they need to be you know next are being very greedy 50 return and you'd be right if if we believe that number we would be being greedy but there are two reasons to be cautious about it the first is that it is based on incrementality the incremental sales and that requires an estimate we've got to estimate how many of the customers who saw that advert we then bought actually were stimulated by the advert and wouldn't have bought anyway and what you'll find when you look at these incrementality tests that we do is that the incrementality is surprisingly low so it's a very important thing that we're unsure of we think we need fat margins to absorb that risk the second and more important reason is that the profit we're talking about here is the marginal profit i assume that if we spend the marketing that the increase in sales doesn't doesn't result in any increase in hr costs finance costs product costs it all goes into profit if you said oh well actually um our fixed overheads are going to grow as fast as sales that one pound fifty drops to one pound and one pence and i think what this does is it brings home a fundamental truth about which will affect our growth going forward and that is our ability to control our costs and our fixed costs to make sure that they don't rise um that they actually fall as a percentage of sales doesn't fall in absolute terms but they fall as a percentage of sales our ability to control those costs will drive our ability to do marketing which will drive growth and that actually the message for people in the business is very positive normally cost control is seen as a bit of a sigh cost control meeting that we have with all of our directors once every quarter is not their favourite meeting but because it's all just about squeezing more out of the sponge but once people see that this is not just about squeezing more profit out of the business this is about driving growth it's much easier to get that message across because people are more excited about growth than they are about cost saving and the assumption that you might make about fixed overheads by the way being fixed is not necessarily correct i do i remember my dad saying to me years and years and years ago that fixed costs are only ever fixed on the way down And there's a little bit of truth there. If you look at technology, product, finance, legal, HR, add them all together as a percentage of sales in 2006 and look at them today, not only have they not declined as a percentage of sales, they've actually overperformed. They've grown faster than sales. Now don't panic about that. The margins of the business have moved forward by 2% in that time. and there is none of that investment I say investment spending none of that spending that I would regret you know if we hadn't spend much more on technology we wouldn't have websites call centers marketing campaigns our technology spend meant that we could stop producing 65 million pounds worth of catalog every year if we're going to grow our product ranges and Next, in terms of the ranges we offer online today, they're probably about five or six times the size of the ranges we offer just in stores. You need more product people for that. We're going to have new Wobble. We need new people. We're going to have extra third-party brands. We need someone to manage those relationships. So it's not that those investments were wrong. It's that going forward, we need to grow them by less than sales if our marketing is going to be successful. Unfortunately, we are at i think the perfect time for saving money in those areas because the combination of the fact that we've modernized pretty much all of our software platforms with exception of finance over the last six years the fact that we have transformed the way the company handles data we've made sure that it's universally accessible across the group that it's consistent across the group so the combination of modern software high quality data means that we are well placed to adopt ai and you know i know that there's going to be a groan i can't actually hear it but a groan when chief executives start talking about ai because um so i'm going to apologize in advance but i am going to talk about ai a little bit and our approach to what we're doing with ai and i think the first thing to say is that the degree of adoption that we're getting across the business is very different the areas that have adopted it the most aggressively of technology contact centers and e-commerce products on the use of ai to envisage product and forecasting has made some progress and the other areas really i put a little blue bar here but that blue bar could be smaller if i wasn't so generous where we have invested we are definitely seeing ai resulting in productivity gains that is translating directly into not just better software and better service in the call centers but also lower costs and what this graph shows is the percentage of sales represented by technology and call centers and I think in both these areas there's farther to go and I've written about that in terms of our approach to AI I think I thought it'd be useful to share a little bit as to how we're approaching the whole issue of AI and I think the most important thing for us is what we're not doing we don't have a central ai department or a chief ai officer a chow i think it would be called it sounds like goodbye in italian we don't have that and the reason we don't have that is because the nature of what we do across the different functions of business is so different that have one department trying to service all those would be extremely unproductive because ultimately the value of AI is not in the technology it's in the applications it supports and the design of those applications what it does to the business can only be understood by the people who are running the business not people who have access to the technology and the best comparison I've heard is that it would be like having a central spreadsheet department and you know chief spreadsheet officer you know spreadsheets are used by everyone in very different ways across the business same with ai it's got to be application led that's not so we're doing nothing centrally we do talk a lot about it we encourage people help them our it department provides access to technologies it ensures that the technologies we use are secure most importantly and it also monitors the cost of the AI tools that various departments are adopting but we haven't adopted a one-size-fits-all approach to this and each director is very much going to have to be their own chief AI officer if they want their part of the business to succeed. What I wouldn't underestimate here is the power of collaboration and it's just the way that Next works is that pretty much all of our directors see each other every week at our trading meeting at least once a week if not more and the directors who are most advanced are actively working not just in their department but to help the other departments and show them the sort of things that AI can do for them and share people and technology providers with them. in terms of um how far ahead we are on this that graph looked quite impressive but my you know even in the areas that we are the furthest ahead my guess is that we know we haven't we're scratching the surface there is so much more to go out not just in terms of cost effectiveness but also um productivity in terms of what people can do so i think this is a huge opportunity in terms of the areas that really haven't um move forward much um i'm not singing out warehouse because they've done anything wrong and all because ai isn't applicable to warehousing actually i could be brilliant to warehousing in terms of handling all the operational management of the warehouse re-forecasting scenario planning optimization lots of variables that AI could really turbocharge the management of our warehouses but they haven't had time quite rightly to worry about AI because the thing they've been most worried about is ensuring that we've got the capacity in warehousing that we need to grow and that provides a slightly artificial but neat segue into the next subject which is the last subject you'll be pleased to hear the investments in our warehousing this is where we were two years ago when we started to invest in Ansell 3 we were 94% full in our old warehouses in 2023 where we thought we would be on 5% compound growth in sales was 80% full of the new extended complex sales have actually grown by 28% we were expecting 10 we've actually grown at 28 in addition to that we've put more clearance into our online operation and we've increased our cover that pushes up the stock in peak week and there's only talking peak weeks here to 84% and we've decommissioned some of the oldest picking that actually turned out when we decommissioned it we realised just how inaccurate and expensive it was so we don't want to recommission it we've had a slight drop in Boxville which means that last year we got to 87% full if we look at this year with the eight percent planned growth in online business overall we'll be at 94 now 94 sounds okay it's not 94 at 94 you begin to get a lot of congestion things slow down one small breakage a conveyor belt breaking can hold up the whole operation so that's uncomfortable we're going to manage this year by taking some of our reserve stock this is the high bay stock that can't be picked out of high bay and elsa three and move it into other warehouses owned by the groups that will be That will be replenished in day, so it shouldn't affect stock availability for customers. There will be a slight increase in costs as a result of that. But that will be more than offset by leverage over the fixed overheads from using so much of the capacity. In terms of the year after, that's where we really get into trouble. If we go at another 8% next year or nine, then we wouldn't have the capacity to do that. So we need to invest and we need to start investing now. In terms of what we're doing, and those of you who've been to the warehouse you remember that we only occupy half of the new Elmstall 3 complex chamber one and we don't occupy all of it all of chamber one there's a little bit left so phase one which will be on stream in 2027 will give us 10% more capacity at a cost of 48 million phase two which is the first half of the second chamber that's more expensive because that chamber is a shell so it's more expensive per percentage of capacity it's 134 million and the final chamber which will come on the following year 2029 is another 17 capacity at 125 million in terms of the P&L impact to that you could look at that and begin to worry about what is that are we going to see a big P&L impact as all this capex goes through and the answer is you shouldn't because although the additional depreciation in year end Jan 2028 and overheads will be in the order of 5.4 million we think the cost savings from moving from the old to new capacity will give us at least 5.1 million of savings so there should be that's broadly and cost neutral in that year in terms of the full program the 307 million of capex that will add around 30 million of operating costs but we get 22.6 million it's too precise about 22 million of savings we think from using that new capacity that means that the net cost of all that new capacity is around 7.3 million and that's obviously if sales don't grow at all if sales the capacity that all of those projects together will give us is around 1.5 billion pounds worth of turnover so what you can see is that the cost of increased space once it's at full capacity or even once it gets to three quarters full or even half full the cost of that capacity is very small as a percentage of sales so over time these investments should result in our fixed costs in warehousing coming down as a percentage of sales in terms of where it leaves us in terms of capacity for growth. That's the 8% trajectory with the new space added on. The maximum we could get to is compound growth of around 12% online. I think if we have that problem, I'll be delighted, but I don't think we will. We think that this program gives us comfortable capacity for the next three to five years. Next question you're going to say I can see it instantly on your minds. It's like what do you do next? Here's a field. We've bought the field The field that's the warehouse that we have already got planning permission for we have contracted for the land will complete I think in two or three days And we'll start work on that getting foundations label start work on that sometime over the next 18 Months so we could have floor space available if needed maybe early 28 late 28. I and so we've got contingency. I think the important point there is that our model of centralised stockholding for the UK has got legs beyond Elmshall 3. And that, mercifully is it, almost. Just in terms of summary, hopefully what you can see is that the avenues of growth that we had last year all of them still have legs in terms of overseas in terms of next product in terms of non-next product we've still got an awful lot that we can do and that the business feels can push sales forward We have got the means to control costs through the introduction of new software AI mechanization. It doesn't mean we guarantee that we will, but we have got the means to do it. And we've got the capacity available, planned, to accommodate the growth if and when it comes. So if things go well, I think the business is really well positioned. um what is i think really interesting when you kind of stand back from we stand back from what we do day to day and i think about the sorts of things that cross my days desk and my colleagues desks um in terms of your overseas new brands new ai driven marketing technologies with google all the things that are driving the business are completely different so the sort of things i was doing twenty five years ago twenty five years ago it was it was still very exciting but it was about stores and believe it or not catalogs getting more catalogs printed and printing those catalogs was central and so what the business does today is unrecognizably different from what it was doing twenty five years ago the thing that really has not changed at all are the principles upon which that growth and that the ethos of the business and those two things are first of all absolutely everything we do everything we do we have to hand on heart believe that it is giving good value to our customers we have to go and the test there is would you recommend this product to your customers now not everybody is in the market for a mesh dress i'm not but if you wanted a mesh dress could you recommend one from the next website and say that that is the service you want it's fantastic delivered next day return to any store you have to hand on heart believe that and if you if you genuinely believe all of that and you're delivering something that's great for the customers then you can't go too far wrong whether you're doing the next brands or others the second principle is that that's fine to be doing things that are great for a customer but they've got to make money and the two things there is first of all we have to get a return on capital there capital is the fuel that drives the business forward and the better return we get on the capital we have in the business the faster we can grow the more benefit we can share with our shareholders and the second thing is margin and this is the easy one to overlook particularly when things are good but every single business we do it doesn't matter if we're selling um love and roses brand in peru that brand in that country has to make a margin that is commensurate with the sort of risks involved in a fast-moving consumer and fashion business and as long as we stick to those principles and do great stuff for your customers get high return on capital and make healthy margins then you know regardless of the environment you're in you're going to be well placed to handle it and you know we're making a trading statement in six weeks time um but the one thing i'm pretty sure is that it's going to move the guy that's going to move i just don't know which way and um but i think the point is that whichever way it moves if you know the war peters out and things become more positive then we are really well positioned to take advantage of continued growth in the uk economy continued growth overseas and if things don't turn out and this will not be our first gig when thing you know if things going wrong covid financial crisis cost of living crisis if things don't turn out as we expect then actually the business is well placed to cope with that well and it's well placed to cope with it because of those margins because kind of there are two lessons about retail that are enduring and you can you know this is the sharing of wisdom there are two lessons one is it's like in the good years don't get cocky And in the bad years, don't go bust. And, you know, I think those two principles are really important. And that's the reason why when we've had a great year, we're not going into the next year with a huge estimate of what we can achieve. We're going with conservative principles. budgets um but whichever way things go we've set the business up to cope with it and on that cliffhanger i think that leaves you just waiting for the next trading statement we'll go over two questions

Thanks. It's from Berenberg. I've got two questions, please. The first one is about the store payback targets and extension of that. Have you considered taking into account the benefit of a new store in terms of providing a free pickup and returns point for online customers? And then secondly, on aggregator websites, you say you don't have visibility on the customer numbers there, but what insights do you receive from aggregators to help you make decisions about marketing, for example?

um yes okay so first of all the um store benefits to online we don't account for that and we don't in any way put any benefit on in for the online business on stores and there's actually a good reason for that and that is that although the store does definitely help the online business it also hinders it because it's a competitor and so where we've we've only done there's only one store where we've shut and had no other stores anywhere near to pick up the business and there we actually saw the online business move forward because the two million or so that we lost in the store some of that went online and so we don't and we shouldn't account for online benefit of of stores in terms of customer insights into aggregation sites we don't get very much insight and quite rightly they don't share that with us and we don't share it with our brands either and so what they do share with us is the returns on the marketing we do on their sites and on somewhere like zalando we'll spend around two percent of our sales on marketing still have the same hurdles We still have to get a return on that money, but we can profitably spend money on aggregation sites, and we do. And the insights we get are not about who's buying it, but the returns we get on the marketing that we spend with them.

Thanks, Simon. Good morning. Richard Chamberlain from RBC. A couple more related to the Middle East, if that's all right. The cost savings you talked about that you've identified since the start of the year, 15 million, how many of those or how much of that do you think might come back if demand is a little bit better or the war ends earlier than you're you're budgeting for and the second one can you just give us an idea of how the franchise stores in the middle east have been holding up or not compared to the online offer there has there been any sort of big big difference in trends thanks yes two good questions so first of all how much the 15 million will come back i think very little in all honesty i think

there's a much bigger downside risk to that number than there is an upside risk so yeah it could come back it might be that seven million of it doesn't materialize we haven't yet incurred it but i wouldn't i'm not getting excited about that i think the downsides are much bigger and they will have to go into into cost in terms of franchise business i don't want to talk about that because it's not our business but they have definitely been impacted

I'm Adam Cochrane from Deutsche Bank. First of all, on the Middle East, just a question in terms of logistically, how is it working? Are you able to fly your product to your warehouse in Dubai?

in terms of the Dubai hub so the Dubai hub traditionally we would have air freighted out of Dubai to other countries like Saudi Arabia and Oman at the moment we're going by truck and that's what's increasing the lead times to places like Saudi Arabia Oman and Kuwait Intermittently, we have seen that service come back on. I think things are changing things are changing daily But we're hoping to we're hoping to have a back on available for Saudi Arabia soon But it does depend what happens in all so the answer is to Dubai from the uk we are shipping by air and we're getting replenishment in at the moment albeit at a very high premium that's a big chunk of that increased operating costs and then from the dubai hope to territory we've switched from air to trucks which is adding two to three days to the lead time in most territories

the second question in terms of international are you progressing with or how are you progressing with other non-wobble brands so third-party brands on your international site is that is that an area that you're still seeing more growth and more opportunity as as brands would like to

sell via the next platform yes we have and actually it's detailed and there is detail on that in the pack and that there's one page with brilliant tables on it which does show you that i think the overseas the growth in third-party brands overseas around 22 percent most of that is driven by what's driving the growth in third-party brands anyway which is a better selection of our key brands but in some areas partner brands have agreed to allow us to put their work product on our overseas websites where they haven't in the past and that's driven some growth as well

Hello, it's Freddie Wild from Jefferies. So, apologies, this is going to be quite a broad question, but it was on a reasonably important topic, or was important until about three weeks ago. You seem on AI to be talking a lot about cost savings and the ability to run the business more efficiently. I suspect where the debate has been in the market

is more about the risks of disintermediation versus the potential benefits to your consumer proposition so i'd love to get your sort of thoughts on outlook on almost the demand side of the ai proposition it's a it's a it's a big question um i think i think the first thing to say is rightly or wrongly it's not something that we're overly concerned about at the moment and i think the the disintermediation that we're talking about would be the disintermediation of the website rather than any other parts at the moment unless you know it'll be relatively easy because it's just a fraction of their data centers into beautiful clothing warehouses and chat gpt would have the infrastructure but at the moment they don't so you're really talking about the disintermediation of the of the shopping bag and the selection process and there is an economic and just there's an economic and operational problem with that that has yet to be solved and there are the economic problem is that if you look at our average order value net of returns be around 70 pounds cost of delivery to the consumers around five pounds if that's about six percent if your virtual shopping bag takes things from five different retailers wherever the shopping wherever that intermediate website goes it's got to go to a number of retailers if it comes to us then fine it's just another form of advertising if it goes to more than one retailer then let's go to four retailers rather than one you end up with that six percent being multiplied by four so the economics someone somewhere's got to pay for that additional eighteen percent of cost that you'll get from splitting the order across multiple websites i think the operational problem which in many ways is more of a challenge and applies specifically to clothing is how you handle returns because you've got to if you buy your all of your online order goes to john lewis or to mark's expenses or to next or to very you know exactly you can take the whole order back to any one of their shops scan the items and you're credited instantly in the way in which you paid for an intermediary to do that you've got to know where to take the item back to which is a nike trainer or which which of the sub vendors do i take it back to how do i return it to them and then how do they communicate with the intermediary that the intermediary's got to repay me so there are big customer service issues with it so at the moment it doesn't look it feels to me very much like what people were saying about marketplaces versus stocked retailers because the real asset in trading online clothing is the logistics infrastructure and the products not the website and so i i think it's I think that is a direction they are likely to go in and certainly if you look at the difference in Google approach and chat GPT approach Google is still taking the approach of passing the consumer straight through from their AI engine to one or other retailer so it becomes a enhanced form of advertising and I think to that extent is very exciting you know I think basically the better search engines can find what customers are looking for the more they'll buy which it's got to be good for the industry overall so it was a long answer to a broad question but i hope it covers yeah hi jeff larry at rothschild and co redburn um

you had a great year for customer acquisition in the uk both credits and cash there was obviously some competitive disruption etc sitting behind that whether all of those things but can you talk a little bit about the behavior is this gross ads is this better retention of existing what is actually driving that and what measures do you have to sort of keep them active as you know some of your competitors normalize etc around you

i suppose look the reality is and this comes back to this philosophy that everything's got to make a profit yeah and i think the risk here is saying the objective is to hold on to those customers not to make sure that all of our retention programs are profitable and the amount we invest in a retention program is um makes a good return on the money we invest so our objective is not to hang on to customers it's to continue to invest profitably in retention and our retention programs are performing in line with last year there's no significant i can't see any significant difference at this point although we've yet to annualize the very strong weather last year which may affect it and the competitive disruption so the answer is we don't really know how they will perform I think the key takeaway for shareholders is that we're not going to throw money at trying to hang on to customers that aren't profitable to keep

Two questions about warehouse capacity, please, Simon. Firstly, does the level of utilization that you're sort of running up against reduce the ability for the business to reduce the proportion of products not delivered in full and on time, which is something that you've been bringing down? and secondly are there any options to reduce the proportion of products that are shipped from the uk out to international that could reduce the amount of capacity that you might need for the uk business yeah good really good questions

um in terms of uh not um on time uh delivered in full statistics they have i i didn't put it in a slide because i you know i'm superstitious because then just got better but basically since christmas we have seen that dropping from around eight percent to around six percent which is sort of i think the lowest we got to was around five so warehouse have made significant progress in terms of reducing the not delivered in full on time rates and we are happy with that for the moment but i'm going to talk about it in six months time if we can hold it because it's only been a few weeks but the the signs on that are encouraging i don't think there's anything i can see in this year's numbers that suggests that we won't be able to hold that but it will depend on the effectiveness with which we fill the new mechanization and the effectiveness of which we can serve the main forward locations in the warehouse from the off-site reserve warehouses which again we haven't started doing this but obviously the risk there is you've got something in reserve that you don't have in forward if you don't get it exactly right so i think there is a small risk to that but it's not something that i'm hugely concerned about and i'm pretty sure that we'll see year-on-year improvements certainly that's what we're seeing um at the moment in terms of delivery to hub direct we're not doing that to germany and the main reason for that is that actually it's it's very because it's third party it's very expensive so we've tried to keep that on six weeks cover we would normally have 12 to 14 weeks cover so at the moment we're not delivering direct to germany but it will be an option if we begin to hit capacity issues I think the other issue with direct delivery is that it's very hard to deliver much more than 20 to 25 percent of anticipated demand without getting it wrong because you never quite know what's going to sell in which territory. We are delivering direct to the Middle East which obviously looks like a brilliant plan and our first cargo ships set off from the Middle East about I think from the Far East four or five weeks ago and have recently been turned back. from dubai so that turned out to be a great plan implemented in exactly the wrong time but going forward we would plan to deliver i think it's around 20 i'm looking at richard about about 20 20 of um middle east requirement direct from manufacturer

um morning it's andrew hollingworth from holland advisors um next historically has been very very good at the whole sort of mentality of to sort of try stuff and do more of what works the cost of coffee is years ago and all the rest of it and wholly owned brands is obviously working extremely well and i think in the statement or your presentation you described it as sort of small business um what you've done up to now is sort of by i don't want to say the wrong thing but sort of troubled uk businesses and you've sort of re-energized them and helped them and all the rest of it but you've wanted them i think in past q a to sort of approve their worth in terms of return on capital in the uk alone we've now got a really powerful sort of wholly owned business internationally what could this look like three four five years from now in terms of could we be buying spanish brands or french brands or italian brands or is it just going to be uk homegrown and see what we can do with it globally yeah i you know what

looking even a year ahead is difficult in fashion three fourth years out is absolutely impossible you know would we buy a French Italian brand I don't think at the moment no because our business in those territories just isn't anywhere not big enough in southern Europe generally isn't big enough to warrant the investment the big advantage we provide for northern European and UK brands is that we can give instant access to a huge market actually our penetration in southern Europe is very low so I think those countries that you mentioned And France, although it's in the middle, fashion-wise is quite sudden, I think is unlikely. But I would never say no, because even just access through Zalando to those countries might one day give us enough volume to justify it.

Let's ask a follow-up. So do you think, without mentioning any names, in terms of how you think about this part of the business, that there's still lots of brands that can be added to the portfolio within your sweet spot of the sort of things you want to buy?

yeah well that what we're looking for is great brands preferably with good management or with our ability to provide good management for it to it we're looking for things that we can add value to through our customer base and platform and at the right price and of i can't predict the fourth one you know so i think there are lots of brands that i would buy for a pound that i wouldn't buy for 100 million and where the price is in between will depend will drive pretty much what we do i think

thanks it's Georgina Johanan from JP Morgan and two from me as well please um just first of all sorry if I missed it but what actually is the middle east trading at the moment like down at the moment please good spot you didn't miss it and then the second one was just a bit of a broader question on glp ones and if you could share anything that you're seeing in terms of how like the sizing mix is changing in the business or not as the case may be and also just thinking about it longer term like any insights where from particular customer cohorts if they are sort of materially changing the sizes of what they're buying like is their spend increasing or is it steady just really any insights you can share would be great thank you

yep so on the middle east numbers the reality is it's very very hard to read so and the reason it's hard to read is because the timing of eid because we are still in a period now where last year people were ordering in the run-up to eat so it was on sunday this time last year um this year it was last friday so if we take the same days post eid that we are today that number is changing every day in terms of growth in terms of glp ones um we have seen some subtle change in mix in sizing um on women's wear um and where but where we've seen the most dramatic changes actually on the very large outsides that's where you can see a change in terms of reduction in participation these participations are tiny but participations on the sort of 22 plus are definitely falling oh shoot I'm sorry one last one

I had two. Marketing expenses, you're still talking to plus 25% or more. Are you repurposing some of the Middle East marketing into faster growing Europe or the rest of the world? Is something like that an option for you? um and the second one again international within the rest of the world are there a couple of markets that you really are excited about and you see significant potential for them to be meaningful for next with it well within the rest of the world in international okay so the second the answer the second question is yes the answer the first question

I think the premise of the question is that we've got a marketing pot and if it doesn't work in the Middle East we'll move it somewhere else and that's just not how we work we don't have a marketing pot we have a hurdle rate of £1.50 return and whichever territories give us more return than that we will continue to invest money in and those that don't will reduce and so the answer to your question is If I sort of stood back from it, do I think we will still be 25% up on what I've seen so far in marketing? Yes, but I think a lot will depend on the cost of air freight to some of our most expensive territories. Because if the price of air freight goes up, the return on the marketing comes down, which constricts our ability to spend it. But overall, we've brought down our sales by around 2% overseas at the moment, so that's our best guess as to the full impact, but who knows. And we've kept the marketing budget where it is. and on that note we really will finish. Thank you very much.