Smiths News plc

Okay, so good morning everyone. Welcome to the presentation of Smith News PLC's interim results. The presentation has been recorded and will be available on our new website later this afternoon. Today's format and content is hopefully straightforward, reflecting a good performance driven by the focused application of our strategy, and in that sense there should be no surprises. We are, however, also here to give some wider context, and Paul and I look forward to answering any questions at the end of the presentation. So if we start with the headlines, we've returned a good performance delivering profit growth and strong net debt reduction. Adjusted EBITDA of 20.7 million is in line with expectations with growth of 1%. Underpinning this are two key factors. Firstly, sales in the period are ahead of historic trends as the pandemic unwinds with further benefit from margin mix. And secondly, the absolute focus on delivering our business priorities, including the successful execution of our productivity plans and the mitigation of inflationary pressures. This clarity of mission, combined with our market expertise, is a signature asset of our business and one that has paid dividends in what could otherwise have been a volatile period. Net debt below one times EBITDA has been achieved ahead of our target and the interim dividend of 1.4 P reflects our ongoing confidence in the performance of this business. The newly increased 10 million annual capital distributions in our revised financial agreements also gives us a flexibility for further strong cash returns at the full year. Looking at the underlying performance drivers, Resilient core sales have clearly underpinned our performance in the period. As the pandemic unwinds, the return to the high street and greater levels of travel and commuting have especially helped magazines and one-shots, boosting our margin mix. On the other side of the coin, all distribution businesses have faced increased inflationary pressures. However, the early actions we took and our deeply embedded culture of continual efficiency improvements has meant that the net impact is in line with the forecast we made. Importantly, this has been achieved without compromise to our customer service standards, which are fundamental to avoiding waste and rectification costs. Finally, an agile and proactive approach to making incremental revenue gains has helped to further mitigate some of the recent cost pressures. In short, it is these factors, underpinned by the focus and expertise of our experienced management teams, that is driving our performance in the period. I'd now like to hand over to Paul, who will talk you through the numbers in more detail.

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Although I briefly introduced myself in November, I'm pleased to be able to present my first set of interim results after seven months in the business. Starting with the financial headlines on slide six. While revenue was down 1.2%, this represents a resilient performance in the context of markets that have historically shown greater declines. All other key financial metrics are favourable, including an 11% increase in earnings per share and a 45% reduction in bank net debt. In terms of the 1.2% decline in revenue, this is lower than historic levels due to the market recovering against the prior year that was impacted by COVID lockdowns. From a margin perspective, we have benefited from a favourable mix as monthly magazines and one-shot titles performed especially well. Overall EBITDA of 20.7 million and adjusted operating profit of 19.1 million were both 0.2 million or 1% ahead of last year. Regarding inflation, last November we guided the market to a 2 million net impact on our full year EBITDA and we remain in line with this guidance. Looking to next year, the recent increases in national minimum wage and the ongoing high cost of fuel mean that there will be inflationary pressures facing all logistics businesses. In response, we continue to drive our cost-out programme and have increased our efforts on the pursuit of additional revenues to mitigate any further impact. Continuing adjusted earnings per share increased by 11% to 5.1 pence, driven by the improved trading and a 0.7 million lower interest charge due to our lower average debt. Free cash flow of 17.5 million benefited from the receipt of the deferred consideration from Tufnals of 6.5 million and the pension surplus of 8.1 million. Both receipts were used to pay down debt in line with the terms of our financing agreement. This helped reduce bank net debt to 38.8 million. meeting our accelerated targets of below one times EBITDA at the half year. The solid base of cash generation and the increased distribution enabled by our refinancing in December support an interim dividend of 1.4 pence, up by 180% when compared to the reinstated dividend of 0.5 pence announced in June 2021. Turning to revenue. The 2.9% decline in newspapers and 2.6% in weekly magazines were at the lower end of historic levels of decline. Monthly magazines, however, grew year on year by 1.1%. Magazine sales are impacted by underlying consumer spending and travel, both of which have increased compared to the prior year, which was affected by the winter lockdowns. One-shots have seen a much improved performance year on year, supported by the return to school. In particular, continuing Pokemon sales and improved football collections have driven higher volumes. As I mentioned, not only is the increase in magazine and one-shots given our revenue some resilience in the first half, they've also provided a favourable margin mix which has supported our overall trading performance. In terms of outlook, we expect our core sales revenue to return to a decline of circa 5% in line with historic trends. Moving on to the continuing adjusted income statement, adjusted operating profit of £19.1 million was up £0.2 million. Margin mix contributed 1.1 million, while additional revenue streams, including the utilisation of warehouse space and the sale of waste paper, added a further 1.5 million. These were offset by 1.1 million of various incremental costs in the half, including phasing and one-offs, as well as the net inflationary impact of 1.4 million. Net finance charges were 0.7 million lower at 3.8 million, which is the result of our lower average net debt. The effective tax rate of 20.3% was 50 basis points lower than half won 2021, due to the benefit of the government's capital super deductions initiative. Overall, profit after tax increased by 0.8 million to 12.2 million, And as a result, earnings per share increased by 11% to 5.1 pence. The next chart on slide nine shows the reduction in bank net debt over the last 12 months, from 70 million in February 2021 to 38.8 million in February this year, which supports a reduction in leverage from 1.8 times a year ago to 0.9 times at the half. While we have benefited from 14.6 million of one-off receipts, we have a strong underlying cash flow, which was 20.6 million over the last 12 months. It is worth noting the impact of timing on our net debt position. While cash flows are predictable, reported bank net debt in the current year and the prior period benefited from the timing of circa 20 million of publisher payments that were due in the following period. Average net debt decreased by 34% year-on-year to £59 million, having included only three months of the benefit of the pension receipts in December. As you can see, cash dividends in the last year were only £4 million, compared to our opportunity to distribute up to £10 million going forward. Since the half year, the company has received a payment of 7.5 million in final settlements of the deferred consideration from Tufnals. The board, mindful of the current macroeconomic climate, agreed to receive a discounted amount ahead of the two scheduled instalments concluding in May 2023. This receipt will be used to further pay down bank debt as per the finance agreement. Moving on to slide 10 and the detailed cash flow. Free cash flow increased by 12.9 million to 17.5 million, benefiting from 13.6 million of adjusting items. Working capital outflow was 3 million higher than last year, due to timing of receipts from the major supermarkets which fell into the first weeks of March. Underlying working capital movements are consistent with prior years. Lease and tax payments were both impacted by the timing of quarterly payments and increased by 0.4 million and 0.6 million respectively. Capital expenditure of 1.2 million remains lower than our anticipated run rate of 10% of EBITDA. This is largely the result of our operational focus on mitigating inflation in the first half and we expect some catch-up on our depot refurbishment plan in the second half. Net interest and fees are £1.1 million lower than last year, driven by the lower average net debt. Other adjusted items of £1 million was £1.6 million lower than last year, as the first half of 2021 included the payment of restructuring and redundancy costs following the sale of tougheners. And finally, for me, as we've mentioned before, a brief update on the change to the headline performance measure the business will use from the full year 2023. We will move from the current measure of adjusted EBITDA pre-IFRS 16 to adjusted operating profit. As a reminder, this is the number you will see in our income statement and will be familiar with in the above slides. We feel it is important to move away from the historic measure based on old gap and the change will continue to enable the business to focus on operational performance with the impact of leases through depreciation. The key reconciling items are listed here and we will continue to provide reconciliations as we go into the full year and expectations for 2023. Before I pass back to John, I should conclude by saying that I'm very pleased to present such a strong set of performance measures across all KPIs in my first set of results. While there will no doubt be challenges ahead, this is a good foundation on which to build future performance. So now, over to John, who will cover our operational progress and outlook.

So thank you, Paul. I'd now like to spend a little time looking at the progress we've made over the broader priorities we published in November last year. At that time, we said we would be focused on service and efficiency in our core operations, the recovery from the pandemic, and the continuation of a prudent approach to capital management. We also identified the need to accelerate our approach to sustainability in a way that drives positive changes for our people, culture, and the wider supply chain. So let's start with the recovery from the pandemic on slide 13. As you can see from the graph, while relatively resilient compared to some other consumer sectors, the last two years have been volatile relative to our historic trends. Newspapers, with greater opportunity for planned location substitution and less reliance on impulse sales in high street locations, stabilised more quickly than magazines, which were more severely impacted by the restrictions on movement and guidance to work at home. This explains why we see the year-on-year gains in H2 as we compare against the prior year lockdowns. In relation to movements this half year, we are still comparing to a relatively soft period last year, so whilst performance is pleasing, we should not necessarily see this as a long-term trend. Looking ahead, there are still some sales opportunities in the return to greater levels of travel and indeed commuting. At a higher level, however, the key message is that our markets have now substantially stabilised. And for the sake of clarity, we will continue to maintain a prudent long-term planning forecast of minus 5% per annum for our newspaper and magazine sales. Moving to slide 14, the second priority of managing cost and efficiency plays to our core strengths and experiences. Breaking down what is often bundled together, the pressure in the period has actually come from three different areas. Labour shortages and the knock-on impact on contractor costs, the rising cost of fuel and the impact of the national minimum wage. These are not costs that can be avoided nor are they temporary so in addressing their impact we were always clear that we would not employ short-term slash and burn tactics that damaged our long-term capability or indeed our market leadership. What we have done is to develop location by location plans seeking to carefully offset the necessary additional costs with productivity gains and revenue opportunities that maintain our service KPIs and minimize waste. In many respects, the drive for operational efficiencies is very much business as usual for Smiths News. However, we've also been agile in finding additional revenues from areas such as renting spare warehouse space. Revenues from the sale of waste paper for recycling has also benefited from an increase in prices after they'd taken a dip the previous few years. In summary, the net impact of inflation and efficiency is in line with our forecasts. There will be some carryover of additional costs to next year, particularly from wages and fuel inflation, for which we are already making plans, as you might expect. So if we turn to slide 15 in sustainability. Our sustainability and people goals were refreshed last autumn and we continue to make good progress, engaging our people and our industry partners in what is a long-term commitment to making a difference and being the best we can. Highlights since we adopted our new approach include a further reduction in environmental emissions, which we'll be validating at the full year, trials for the collection of recycling cardboard and plastic from our independent customers, Health and safety with all major sites now accredited to ROSPA gold standard. Maintaining our close involvement with Pass It On, the campaign we launched in 2017 to help homeless people that last year became an independent charity. Investment in colleague communication that includes a new collaborative intranet, more regular engagement surveys, and a relaunch of our employee forums to make sure that they're not only consultative, but actually draw on the talents and commitment of our people. More broadly, our actions in this area are helping to further strengthen relationships with our major publishers and indeed our major retailers, all of which are working hard to make our supply chain as sustainable as possible. Turning to slide 16. In relation to capital management, we remain committed to meeting the needs of all stakeholders, pursuing a prudent approach that balances the investment in the business with lower borrowings and a strong cash return for shareholders. Banknet debt is now below one times EBITDA, benefiting from planned one-off contributions, as well as the continued prudent management of cash. Looking ahead, we are budgeting for our total capital to be circa £4 million per annum, giving us flexibility for target investment while still paying strong dividends in line with the newly increased distributions cap. And following the recent final £7.5 million payment from Tufnall's, the major one-off benefits are now behind us, but we are confident of further reduction in average net debt given the cash-generative nature of our business model. And so in summary, we are focused on building on the first half performance to deliver an equally strong full year result. In pursuing this goal, our priorities have not changed, with the golden triangle of cost, service and productivity at the heart of our strategy. More broadly, while our primary focus remains on the deliverability of sustainable value creation from our core business, we continue to explore and review opportunities to drive new and incremental profit streams that would further deliver shareholder value. By way of the outlook, since trading from the 1st of March has been in line with recent trends, and while inflation must be monitored carefully, we remain on track to meet expectations for the full year. So that's the end of our presentation. Thank you for listening, and we're now happy to take any questions you may have. For those of you that are in the room, could you please wait for the microphone before asking your question? Once we've concluded the questions from the room, we'll then take further questions from those that are dialling in on the conference facility.

Good morning. Chris Banbury, Peel Hunt. Three questions if I may. First of all, could you please elaborate on the current situation with drivers and warehouse operatives compared to back in November when I spoke? Secondly, the additional revenue streams, how far are you in terms of rolling those out nationally? And finally, obviously with the early settlement of Tufts and the resulting impact in leverage and you've got your dividends up at the cap, what are your thoughts on capital allocation?

Thank you. Okay, well I'll pick off the first two and hand over to you for the third. So in terms of driver shortages... Things are much improved from the point in which we were talking in November. There is still a shortage of subcontractor drivers, as you'll be aware, in the broader distribution market. But we're probably running at around 30% to 40% the level that we were at vacancies in November last year. So things are much improved. And from a warehouse perspective, better again. So we have genuinely seen an uptick in the availability of labor since Christmas, as you might expect. In terms of the new revenue areas, I think there's two ways to think about this, really. Some of the things we've been looking at and executing over the last few months have been opportunistic, and we've been looking at it location by location perspective. So if you think about some of our warehouses as an example to give you. for some of our small distribution warehouses that focus only on newspapers, they're largely only occupied and busy from midnight until breakfast time. And therefore, it is perfectly possible, and which we've started to do, to rent that space to people who want to use the space during the day. So that's not something you can roll out nationally because the capacity varies by location and it's much more opportunistic. If you take something like the... The trials and experiments we've been doing with our independent customers on the recycling of newspaper waste, sorry, cardboard waste and plastics. That's something we've been doing in a trial in the Midlands to fully understand whether there's a market need there from a retail perspective, whether the economics work for us from a Smith News perspective. And we'll continue to do things like that to determine that. What's really important for us is we're not rushing to roll things out until we really understand whether we think it's going to be additive or not. And as soon as we've got something interesting to say on that front, we'll of course come and say so. But right now, we're taking deliberate action to make sure that we drive some incremental revenue.

And on the capital allocation policy, Chris, so as you know, we increased from the refinancing in December our ability to distribute up to $10 million. I think you see from the interim dividend that we proposed today, it would be our policy to ensure that we continue to make returns to shareholders. We don't have any more one-offs, so you'll see from the free cash flow, we've got $20 million and we've got about $10 million of amortization, and we have the ability to distribute up to $10 million.

Thank you very much.

I'm one of the guys, Callum Basu from Berenberg. If I could just ask one follow-up to Chris's question on capital allocation. So kind of you had the one times target as kind of a medium-term aim. You've hit that head of schedule. Obviously now kind of with the 10 million annual dividend payout you'll be able to do from next year, it looks as if you'll still be deleveraging over the next few years. So I wanted to just check. Is one times an appropriate medium-term target you would look to go back to, either from kind of excess returns when possible or investing in other areas? Or would you now kind of believe that the business will be deleveraging over the medium term? We'll kind of approach, let's say, net debt neutral position.

I think it's a great question, Callum. I think at the time that that policy was set, that was before the deferred consideration. In fact, I think it was before the working capital was repaid from Tufnells, let alone the deferred consideration, the pensions receipts, and then the subsequent final settlement from Tufnells. So I think a lot more one-off receipts have happened since then. But I think that does mean that we have delivered ahead of that target and will continue to do so. And we will review what the ongoing funding of the business will be going forward as we look at our strategy across other revenue streams and our capital requirements. But we certainly need to review that in the near future.

Hi there. It's Mark from Canaccord. Just a quick question on DMD and appreciate that obviously, you know, travel restrictions have ease. But I just wondered whether what from what you've seen so far, where you think that business can recover to, I guess, relative to the pre-pandemic levels?

Yeah, that's a really good question. I think the thing to remember with DMD is a lot of its major clients are out in the UAE, Emirates and Qatar Airways and the like. And having recently spoken to all of them, they're having their own shortage of labour issues, ironically. And therefore, I think really for us, We do think in the medium term it can probably return to being a seven-figure profit business in the medium term. But in the short term, you know, we've got to wait to see really for some of our largest clients to be able to resource properly again and start putting on flights around the world in the way they historically have. So the important thing for us, I guess, is that when we think about our three-year forecast, they're not predicated on a material recovery from DMD. So, yeah, that would be upside to our plan rather than integral to our plan. Okay, well, thank you everyone for making the effort to join us, particularly for joining us physically in the room. It's a pleasure to see everybody again. Hopefully, we've given you a reasonable summary of where the business is at. I think we're in good shape, and I hope that's reflected in the half-year performance. And we look forward to seeing everybody in November, if not before.