speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CVGI Q1 2024 earnings call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Andy Chung, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to our conference call. Joining me on the call today is James Wei, President and CEO of CVG. This morning, we will provide a brief company update as well as commentary regarding our first quarter 2024 results. After which, we will open the call for questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast and the Q1 2024 earnings call presentation, which we will refer to during this call, is available on our website. Both may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, expectations for future periods regarding market trends, cost-saving initiatives, and new product initiatives, among others. Actual results may differ from anticipated results because of certain risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may include but are not limited to economic conditions in the market in which CVG operates, fluctuations in the production volumes of vehicles for which CVG is a supplier, financial covenants compliance and liquidity, risks associated with conducting business in foreign countries and currencies, and other risks as held in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to James to provide a company update.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Thank you, Andy. I'd like to turn your attention to the supplemental earnings presentation starting on slide three. As we discussed in last quarter's call, we launched restructuring initiatives comprehending softer market conditions that were expected and we continue to expect in the year. These softer conditions as well as a strong quarter in the prior year period, made for a tough comparison versus the prior year across most metrics. We reported net sales of $232 million in the quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $12.7 million. We remain focused on driving further operational efficiency improvements, strengthening our vehicle solutions segment, and growing our electrical system segment to be our largest business. We fully executed restructuring initiatives in the first quarter, and combined with additional efforts I'll discuss later, underpinned our financial guidance for 2024. Despite a net use of cash in the quarter, our net leverage ratio remained strong at 1.8 times. We also continued driving new business wins. recording approximately $45 million in new winds so far this year on a fully ramped basis. Consistent with our strategy, these winds continue to be focused within our electrical systems segment and support the product ramp-up at our two new plants and additional Morocco facility, which are focused on meeting the demand growth in electrical systems. Turning to slide four, I'd like to take this opportunity to highlight some recent strategic actions we've taken, which all serve as a reminder of our continued goal to align costs and improve margins at CVG. First, we continue to make significant strides in our organizational efficiency improvements, as our restructuring actions to reduce costs and align resources with our growth product lines remain underway. In line with that, we announced last quarter the consolidation of products manufactured in our facility in Chillicothe, Ohio. We now have a signed purchase agreement for the sale of the Chillicothe facility, with the transaction expected to close in Q3. Second, our operational excellence emphasis supports our ongoing cost-out program, which focuses on productivity, materials, and conversion costs. we are persistent in our efforts to increase engagement by prioritizing customer satisfaction across the organization. Our collaboration across business segments will help introduce new products, foster stronger customer relationships, and help us manage inflationary price recoveries. Collectively, these efforts are targeted to improve profitability, increase enterprise-wide efficiency, and support our outlook for the full year 2024. Now, moving to slide five, I'd like to highlight the expansion of our new Unity Seat product line within our vehicle solution segment. The Unity Seat line has many product features that are helping us win business globally, including powered full seat tilt and lever recline, decreased free play and performance above market requirements. Importantly, the Unity line has achieved safety compliance across all our strategic regions and market segments. This expansion is a strong example of how we are strengthening our core vehicle solutions business through customer focus, solutions, and technology. We look forward to growing our Unity sales globally and sharing our successes with you in future quarters. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Andy for a more detailed review of our financial results.

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. If you are following along in the presentation, please turn to slide six. Consolidated first quarter 2024 revenues was $232 million as compared to $263 million in the prior year period. The decrease in revenues is due primarily to a softening in customer demand globally, the anticipated wind down of certain programs in our vehicle solution segment, and a decline in our aftermarket and industrial automation segments, which more than offset an increase in electrical systems revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was $12.7 million for the first quarter, compared to $19.8 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 5.5%, down 200 basis points as compared to adjusted EBITDA margins of 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023, driven primarily by lower volumes and inflationary impacts, partially offset by lower SG&A expenses. Interest expense was $2.3 million as compared to $2.9 million in the first quarter of 2023. The decrease in interest expense was primarily related to lower average debt balances during the respective periods. Net income for the quarter was $2.9 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, as compared to a net income of $8.7 million. or 26 cents per diluted share in the prior year. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $4.4 million, or 13 cents per diluted share, as compared to $9.2 million, or 28 cents per diluted share in the prior year. Moving to the segment results beginning slide seven. Our electrical system segments achieved revenues of $55.8 million, an increase of 1.9% as compared to the year-ago quarter, with the increase resulting primarily from increased pricing. Sales volume with legacy customers saw a slight decline as a result of softening construction and agriculture end markets. Recent comments from ODMs in these end markets have indicated weakening demand, and we will continue to proactively adjust our core structure should these trends continue. We have also seen customer delays in the ramp up of new business wins, resulting in total sales volume being largely flat year over year. Adjusted operating income was $3.1 million, a decrease of $3 million compared to the first quarter of 2023. operating income was negatively impacted at our Mexico facilities by the strengthening of the PESO and the government mandated wage increases that took effect on January 1st. We are continuing to work with our customers to offset these headwinds. However, negotiations remain ongoing. Construction on our second Morocco facility remains on track and is expected to be complete by the fourth quarter of 2024. We will remain focused on driving operational improvements and optimizing margins, even as additional new means flow through. Turning to slide eight, our vehicle solution segment's first quarter revenues decreased 14% to $137.9 million compared to the year-ago quarter, due primarily to lower customer demand including the impact of supply shortages at a key customer that negatively impacted our schedules. Additionally, the anticipated wind down of certain unfavorable programs in the segment weighed on revenues in the quarter. Adjusted operating income for the first quarter was $10.9 million, a decrease of $2.6 million compared to the prior year period. as lower market demand was partially offset by operational improvements and lower SG&A. We remain focused on strengthening our core business in vehicle solutions, and this segment remains a key focus for our team in terms of reducing costs, driving further operational improvements, as well as winning business on new platforms, all with the goal of driving improved margins. Moving to slide 9, our aftermarket and accessory segment revenues in the first quarter decreased 9.5% to $34.1 million compared to the year-ago quarter, primarily resulting from decreased sales volume on lower customer demand and the drawdown of backlog in the prior year period. Adjusted operating income for the first quarter was $4.6 million a decrease of $1 million compared to the prior year period. The decrease is primarily attributable to lower sales volumes. On a sequential basis, results in this segment increase in terms of revenue and adjusted operating income, as our operational improvement initiatives bear fruit. Turning to slide 10. Our industrial automation segment produced first quarter revenues of $4.3 million, a decrease of 56% as compared to $9.7 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to ongoing challenging market conditions and reduced demand from legacy customers. Adjusted operating income was a loss of $1.9 million compared to a loss of $0.2 million in the prior year period. we continue to take actions to right-size this business. We are focused on strengthening our both commercial excellence and operational execution to improve order intake. In parallel with these activities, we are actively exploring new end markets and developing new highly engineered products. An example of this is the development of a new product named Stack, which was showcased at the MoDEX ratio in March. This concludes my financial overview. I will now turn the call back over to James to discuss our updated 2024 outlook.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Thank you, Andy. Turning to slide 11, I'll share several thoughts on our outlook for 2024. Following the introduction of our quantitative annual guidance, At the revenue and adjusted EBITDA level in March 2024, we are reaffirming our previously announced guidance ranges for both metrics. Industry forecasts currently project a decline in North American Class 8 truck builds of approximately 10% for the year, a slightly positive revision from the previous estimate of a 16% decline. This favorable revised Class 8 outlook is being offset by weakening in the construction and agriculture end markets, which we expect to be flat to down 10% in 2024. Notwithstanding these market changes, we are reaffirming our guidance range of $915 million to $1.015 billion in full-year 2024 revenues. We believe our business will continue to be resilient as we benefit from the diversification strategy and forward-looking resource allocation. Given the aforementioned truck build estimates, construction and agriculture market outlooks, and the expectation for further electrical systems segment growth, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be solidly in the previously provided guidance range of $60 to $73 million for 2024. We believe that the actions being taken to consolidate operations, rescale our labor force together with continued discussions with our customers to manage headwinds will serve to underpin the guidance. We continue to expect that we will generate positive free cash flow, providing us with optionality to pursue either debt pay down or inorganic growth efforts should we find an attractive opportunity. We continue to see multiple opportunities to improve profitability through operational cost efficiency and making strategic sourcing decisions and expect all of this to lead to improved working capital management and increased cash generation. Collectively, our business transformation is expected to drive a stronger business mix and make CVG a stronger and more profitable company in the coming years. With that, I will now turn the call back over to the operator to open the line up for questions. Operator?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touchstone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. If you're using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any key. Our first question comes from the line of John Fransreb from Sidoti and Company. Go ahead, please.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking the questions. Good morning, John. I'd like to start with the vehicle solutions segment. and the wind-down of certain programs. I'm curious how much of that impacted the revenue line year over year, and are those program wind-downs complete, or will they continue into the second quarter and beyond?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

So, John, thanks for the question. So, the majority of the wind-downs have been completed. So right now we see for the quarter, we'll call it a single-digit median level of impact. But you probably remember this anticipated wind-down that we talked about a few quarters ago at, I'll call it maybe during the time when we negotiated pricing. Last round, we decided that there are certain programs that are not favorable for us, and we decided to exit them. So you can see the impact actually showing up now in Q1. So it's something that we've been working for quite a while ago, and it took some time for us to work through the final production, and now Q1 you can see the numbers.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Got it, got it. And, Andy, is it safe to say that all the repricing actions and everything related to that is now in the, no pun intended, rearview mirror?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, yes, you're right.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Okay. Regarding the restructuring actions, can you kind of quantify how much in restructuring actions that you're going to take maybe collectively, have an idea for calendar 24 and what your anticipated annualized savings rate will be from these actions?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so a couple of things. We announced last quarter that we were doing a few restructuring mainly here in North America. During the quarter, in Q1, we executed about $2 million of restructuring cost. I'll call it maybe two-thirds of it related to headcount reduction, and then one-third of it related to facility closing. We are, I'll call it, more than halfway through our restructuring program. We will still have some activity going on in Q2, and most of this should be wrapped up by Q3. So both in terms of our facility manufacturing as well as SG&A. So that's where we are right now.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

And you anticipated net savings annualized when you've done this process?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so it depends really on the different type of the projects. We obviously have a mixed bag of multiple kind of projects, SG&A and manufacturing. Normally we target about two years of payback in our saving projects. But it depends on the type of the actions within the restructuring program.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Okay. I guess last thing, I'll get back into Q. The industrial automation business took a real step down as far as revenue compared to the second half of last year. I was under, I guess, the anticipation we were kind of troughing at that high 30, low 40 revenue level. And I actually was also under the impression that maybe that business had the potential to get better in the year ahead. Has something fundamentally changed? Can you kind of talk about what's going on there?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Hey, John, this is James. Yeah, we're in the middle of the transformation of that business. As we talked about on the last call, we're shifting from more of a contract manufacturing, a more engineered product, a serialized production business with longer-term contracts So part of this was anticipated. However, the PO business is very cyclical and it's very lumpy as it comes in. So several of our customers are in the government space. And when they have year-end spend toward the end of the third quarter, typically for government, that's when we tend to see a pickup. So that's been lighter than it was in prior year. And as we invest in SG&A to go to the engineered products, like we had mentioned the stack product. We added engineers and SG&A to participate in the MODEC show, but also that's for the stack product, but also other new products with other new customers that are much more technical and engineering heavy. So we're in the midst of this transformation, and we have seen a recent improvement in our order inbound as well as Contracts will be shipping product in Q3 and Q4. So, the leading indicators are giving us some level of confidence that we'll be continuing to turn this around, going on the upside.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Okay. So, James, it's fair to say you think this is a revenue trough that we're in as we're in that transition period?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Yeah. So, yes. To a certain degree, yes. But it can depend on the... The sharp rebound on whether or not we get near term contracts on these new products, you know, we could see more of a spike back up, or it may be a longer recovery, depending on the new products. These new products require prototypes and alpha and beta testing of prototypes and customer facilities and also in their customer facilities as well. When you're into a full fulfillment center ecosystem. there's a double level of beta and alpha testing. So, the timeline for the new products, from a revenue standpoint, the prototype revenue, as well as NRE, is in the three- to six-month range. And then full-scale production, we perceive that being in the six- to nine-month range on these new products, which in many cases have a higher SKU price than some of our existing contract manufacturing products.

speaker
John Fransreb
Analyst, Sidoti and Company

Got it. Thank you, sir. I'll get back into Q.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Prestapino from Barrington Research. Go ahead, please.

speaker
Gary Prestapino
Analyst, Barrington Research

Hi. Good morning, James and Andy. Yeah, my questions also revolve around what you're doing on the restructuring side. I guess, you know, given the fluidness of the changes you're seeing in some of your markets, you know, particularly I think you said some of the electrical systems, areas starting to see some weakness in construction and ag. Have you, you've identified most of what you want to do in 2024 in terms of restructuring, or is this kind of more or less a fluid process that's really going to be ongoing?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

You know, it's really going to be, this is James, and hi, thank you for the question. It's really going to depend on how this market recovery tracks. In this construction ag segment of the market, our business is primarily with legacy long-term customers. They're not like new startups. So we do need to be prepared for a recovery in the market. So we will continue to adjust both up and down depending on the signals we get from that customer segment and those market segments. In the fall last year, indications from or outlooks from those customers led to a low single-digit year-over-year improvement in what they had communicated, but they've since communicated a flat to down 10% outlook for the year. So we had plans in place to comprehend a low single-digit increase in market, and now we're in the pivot mode to scale things back for a flat to down 10%. So it was a pretty significant swing. A number of macro items influenced that. in different regions, both Europe and North America. But that is what we're doing, the flex, to try and maintain as much margin, but also make sure we have the appropriate amount of capacity in place. When they do come back, we're not left short of capacity and not able to fulfill the contracts we sign up for and lose market share. So it's quite a delicate balance to do that, but our outlook remains very positive in these markets as they are somewhat cyclical in nature.

speaker
Gary Prestapino
Analyst, Barrington Research

Okay. And then in terms of your guidance, $60 million to $73 million for EBITDA, would it be more or less the electrical segment that would have to do an unexpected downturn for you to be below that $60 million?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

It could be a number of items. It could be a deterioration back in Class A. So if you recall, the Class A forecast by ACT has been somewhat volatile over the last six months of up, down, up, down. Now we're back up a little. And because the larger portion of our revenue stream is in the vehicle solutions segment tied to Class A truck, we saw a reversal of this positive trend back down to the minus 16 or more percent down that could influence where we end up in the range. On the electrical segment, because we have more programs that are launching, and some of those launches have been delayed, which is some of the headwinds we see, but they will be coming, and a rebound in the construction ag market, I would say that we still are confident that we'll be in that range unless something very significant happens.

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

And Gary, if I may add to it, one thing that we see some uncertainties and volatility is really still the supply chain disruption that pop up here and there. You probably remember last quarter there was some labor disruption at our customers and those labor issues are still happening from places to places. at different customers. We saw this quarter also some of our suppliers of our customers also have supply issues impacting our customers. And, of course, we all know that the Suez Canal issue affecting logistics. So those are the things probably I'll see potentially a downside risk if something continues to happen throughout the year. So the last couple of quarters we've seen some of that happening.

speaker
Gary Prestapino
Analyst, Barrington Research

Okay. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a street reminder. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touchstone phone. We have our next question coming from the line of Joe Gomez from Noble Capital Market. Please go ahead.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. This is Joshua Zolpil filling in for Joe.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Hi, Josh. Good morning.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Hey, so just a quick question. Just on the electrical side of business, you know, it kind of, look to have this kind of a bit of a slower revenue growth than kind of we expected, just given the kind of recent contract wins there. You know, was there really something behind that, like, slower growth rate?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so, Josh, so as James already mentioned, so the legacy customer is mostly construction and agriculture. So as we explained, that does make up the majority of the end markets of the electrical segments. So that we are seeing a slight decline. So at the same time, if you look back into the last couple of quarters, the growth of the segments, it comes from continued ramping our new wins over the years. As you described, this year we saw a slowdown of those ramps. So mostly because of customers seeing logistical and supply chain challenges. So they were not able to ramp up their production So in turn, obviously, we don't get the revenues to supply to them. So that's the combination that impacting this quarter. Overall, the volume is still up, so meaning that we're still seeing some level of new revenues, but not as fast as we would like. But we'll hopefully that our customer can overcome their challenges and continue to ramp their new businesses.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Yeah, Josh, I'll just add to that point. We are not seeing any lost business from new wins we've booked. So that gives us a leading indicator that the market will come back at some point. We don't have any leakage of lost business. So we still feel confident that we're going to have longer term tailwind from all these new business wins. And in addition to construction and ag, it's also infrastructure customers. as well as EV and electrification applications within legacy and new OEM startups. So it's a very diverse set of segments we serve into, but to Andy's point, the largest two segments in the electrical business are ConAg, both in North America and Europe.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Okay, that's helpful. And just as for the ConAg markets, Is there really a big driver in that deterioration of those industries that you guys have noticed?

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

There are a few things that we heard from our OEM customers. One, as you know, China is in a bad spot right now. So the Asia-Pacific activity is pretty low at this point. Europe, we also see some reduction in demand overall. Again, it's the economy over there. And then I think the most recent development is here in the North America. So compared to a few months ago, the market has low and our customers also publicly mentioned that in their own earnings calls that they're seeing some reduced activities. So it's mostly demand driven based on what we heard from our customers.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Okay, then perfect. And last one for me, I'll get back in queue. I guess with the first quarter over, Is the new business winds of $45 million just in line with your goals for the quarter? Are we still really expecting the $100 million range for the year?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Yes, for the year, we're still expecting $100 million. The $45 million is tracking well. When you look at our pending awards that we've quoted, as well as our funnel of opportunities that we're pursuing, not just within electrical, but also in our vehicle solutions, group and aftermarket and accessories and also in industrial automation. We have a good funnel in each one of those businesses. We just need to bring home the awards that are pending and then on the pursuit opportunities, we have ample capacity in our outlook to be aggressive on winning those opportunities in the pursuit funnel too. We feel confident at this point that we will achieve that $100 million on an annualized basis that we have mentioned before in prior calls.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Martin from Slater. Go ahead, please.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

Hi, guys. Hi, Steve. You said the second Moroccan plant would be completed by the end of the first quarter. Well, that was 40 days ago. So I guess my question is, was it completed and is it producing?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

So we have an initial Morocco facility that we're currently producing in that was completed in Q4. The second facility was started in Q1 this year. It will be complete by the end of Q4 this year with beneficial occupancy Q1 of 25. Got it. Now I misheard that.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

And how is the new Moroccan plant and the new Mexican plant doing?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

They're both ramping up very well. We are able to actually improve our funnel of opportunities with the North African Morocco footprint for the European market. So we're seeing a good customer response from our expansion of our European footprint. As you may know, we have facilities in the Ukraine as well as Czech Republic for the electrical systems business. So this expansion in the North Africa is positioning us well from a value proposition on new opportunities in Europe. And for Mexico, the Aldama facility, which is outside of Chihuahua, is ramping up very well. Our main facility in Mexico was in Agua Prieta. So the team that's managing those facilities is based in Chihuahua and Agua Prieta, and we're somewhat running those two in parallel. And we have a ramp schedule that will continue to ramp throughout the year and early next year with some of the North American new business winds that we booked over the past 12 to 18 months.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

okay um and to follow up someone's earlier question about your guidance if i were to choose the midpoint of this year's guidance and um given how you've done in the first quarter that would imply that the first the i'm sorry the back half would have to be up 10 to 12 percent to make them maybe 10 to 15 percent to make the midpoint of your guidance what gives you that level of comfort what businesses you know all four businesses were down this first quarter what what businesses are going to swing enough to make that midpoint

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so if you look at our guidance, you clearly see there's a little bit of a wider range that we communicated. James already mentioned, so there's the upside of potentially the ACT truck build, and depends on how the CONAC market goes, or maybe the decline is not as severe, so there's some upside opportunity, but at the same time, there's also the downside risk. that we mentioned about supply chain and logistics and the continued depressed in the demand on the customer side. So I think right now it's hard to say where the final year is going to land, but we believe that our range is pretty well covered in case of those scenarios. But we probably have more confidence in our ability to manage our earnings. So as we mentioned that we've been taking proactive actions about right-sizing the business, anticipating the customer demand changes. So there's a few more levers for us to pull. So we're pretty confident in terms of our EBITDA guidance that the range that we produce.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Yeah, an additional point too, Steve, is the restructuring benefits will start to ramp higher in the second half after some of the efforts we took in the first. In addition to that, as we have mentioned in prior calls, our cost out program, some of those savings items will kick in higher as volume ramps up on new projects that were implemented in Q4 and Q1 as we continue to implement in Q2. So on the cost side, we see opportunities to help mitigate some of the downside of lost top line or lower top line through the cost-out process that we're doing. And that, to Andy's point, it helps us manage the earnings a little better, especially in the second half. And we're hopeful that the ACT and the Class 8 market will continue to strengthen in the outlook. We're not banking on it, but we're hoping that that happens. And then Con-Ag, I do think that it's volatile right now. I'm not really sure where it's going to end up, but I don't have any indication that it's going to get much worse than flat to down 10%. So we're planning for the worst and putting things in place to try and mitigate pressure on the EBITDA outlook.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

Okay, follow up to that. ACT expects that 2025, so first of all, as I said on the last call, 2023 ACT was not as bad as everybody expected at the beginning of the year. 24 ACT looks to be plus or minus, as you said, maybe a little better. 25 is supposed to be a new cycle. When do you expect that you're going to see or we will start to see the benefits of that new cycle?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

Yeah, so that's a very good question, Steve. It's interesting because, as you know, the 27 calendar year are new federal emissions for Class A vehicles. And I've seen ranges in estimates of potentially 30% higher engine costs for all of the emissions. So the 25 and 26 outlook from ACT is pretty much factoring in a pre-buy. So you'll see a larger drop in 27 because the buy was pulled ahead. And we would expect to see a 25 model year would start the summer of or to the latter part of 24, okay, as the new models come on and they ramp up new production. A lot of the vehicle manufacturers have a model change mid to late prior year of the stated year model. So that's given us some indication, I think to another question earlier, which gives us a little more confidence in the back half of the year. Even though ACC's forecast is showing a decline in Q4 compared to the prior quarters. We still see it depends on when those customers start their next model and how fast they ramp up. So we have to be somewhat flexible and agile so that we can respond to those ramps both on the high side and the low side.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

Okay, and you know, ACT predicted a bad Q4 in 23, and it ended up being a lot better. One last question. I would assume that aftermarket is sort of the yin to new truck yang, in the sense that if somebody doesn't replace a truck, they have to buy some more stuff in the aftermarket to keep the existing truck on the road. Should we see... aftermarket benefit or until you get it righted, we're just not going to see that benefit?

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

We should see some benefit and based on our portfolio, the majority of our aftermarket business is in seeding. So we focused, we kind of took an 80-20 approach since I came into the role to figure out how we can win in aftermarket seeding. And there's some pretty solid players out there that we're going up against. And it comes down to two or three different things. One is how easy it is to do business with us. And as you know, we had a website that launched that really didn't hit that well. And it's because we didn't leverage our field sales reps that I mentioned in our last earnings call. We've done that now. Then the second thing is, what does the customer really want and how does that fit into our ability to carry inventory and have quick turnaround within 48, 72 hours of when they want to see. And that's what we've been working on in Q1 with our factory in Piedmont, Alabama, which makes our aftermarket seats. So we've put in some new processes for scheduling. We've put in a different inventory profile model. We have a more regular touch point with our field sales reps. We have recently seen an increase in our inbound orders for aftermarket seating. So I think the opportunity is out there for us to take advantage of capturing share that's existing with other competitors out there. As long as we focus our offering and we do a much better job of advertising and having the right inventory fulfillment model. The other activity we started in Q1 was an incentive program for our field sales reps. So this is, I think, that was the leading behavior that's driving the trail as a result of increased inbound orders for aftermarket teams. So hopefully we'll continue to see positive momentum in that. But we're looking at all different angles and being contemporary in our approach on how we're driving aftermarket sales. It had been somewhat of a legacy business that was really focused on OE service for the major truck manufacturers. And now we're taking a more retail-type approach with our field sales reps to have a more contemporary go at it. So proof's in the pudding, but right now we have some good early indicators that we should see some uplift, which is also helping us put a better pencil on the second half of the year overall in the aggregate level of revenue. So we hope to see more aftermarket performance in the second half.

speaker
Steven Martin
Analyst, Slater

All right. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thanks, Steve.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up question coming from the line of Joe Gomez from Noble Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Hi, guys. Just a quick follow-up from me. Just a couple quick questions. Like you guys mentioned, the additional cost actions in the press release, you know, can you provide just a little bit of detail what you guys are doing to offset inflation in foreign exchange headwinds and then kind of how much more of the previous cost actions need to be completed before the full savings are kind of realized. Thank you.

speaker
Andy Chung
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, um, let me answer you, um, on a few areas. So one is, um, a lot, a large part of the cost action that we have is to make sure that we right size our businesses so that we can offset the impact of the softer demand of our businesses. I mean, mostly in vehicle solutions, um, as well as electrical. So electrical, As you can see, margin pressure for the quarter came from really two main things. One is there's labor increases in Mexico, and many of us are aware that there's some government mandate of labor cost increase in the border region of Mexico up to about 20-ish percent. So it's really impacting some of our locations in our electrical business. And then the other one that is also creating some cost pressure for us is the strengthening of the Mexican peso, which compared to a year ago is a double-digit increase in terms of the cost of Mexican peso denominated cost for us. So we're working on both ends. One is continue to do reduction in our core structure. We're taking our labor, right-sizing the overhead, At the same time, and more importantly, we're also working with our customer commercially to resolve some of this cost pressure. I would say that we have made some progress already in terms of offsetting some of the labor inflation, but we're still working through offsetting some of the peso-strengthening cost pressure for us. So we'll continue those efforts in Q2, but we believe that we should be able to work with our customer to find some solutions.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

In referencing the other part of your question, last year we said we achieved $30 million, or approximately $30 million of cost out activity at a gross level, gross projects. And then obviously the net, once you roll inflation in and other things, it breaks that number down. But we're on track to a similar number this year, both in logistics, freight, and supply chain, as well as direct material. And we're taking a fresh look at indirect spend as well to achieve that same level. So we are leaning in, I would say, more specifically this year in other areas in addition to direct material. Some of our direct material is directed by from our customers. We have a little less opportunity there than the spend that we have where we select our own suppliers and drive savings. So the framework that was put in place last year to drive the focus on direct material is still there. framework that was put in place last year to have a specific cost out that per manufacturing facility on conversion cost is still in place pursuing that more emphasis now this year pretty much driven by some macro items so freight and logistics is one area with the disruption in the Suez Canal and some of our supply chains that go across region that has caused us to take a more specific look at our freight and logistics and supply chain costs and see what opportunity we can get there. Also looking at on-shoring or near-shoring to reduce long supply chains, which have both FX risk as well as supply chain risk. So there are a number of items we're looking at to achieve that similar level of savings at a gross level that we achieved last year for this year, which is helping us further solidify our range on the EBITDA margin line.

speaker
Joshua Zolpil
Analyst, Noble Capital Markets

Thank you. I appreciate it.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. There seems to be no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Ray for final closing comments.

speaker
James Wei
President and CEO

I'd like to thank you all for joining today's call. We remain excited for the prospects that we see for CVG as we continue to execute our forward-looking strategy of resource alignment, cost management, and customer engagement. We reaffirm our business outlook and we look forward to continuing to drive growth at CVG. I hope you all have a great day and a safe day. Thank you very much for joining the call.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a lovely day. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today.

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