Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Good day and welcome to the Steel Dynamics fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After management's remarks we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised this call is being recorded today January 26, 2023 and your participation implies consent to our recording this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Jenny. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Meeting today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics, and Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually. Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate, or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risk and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates, assumptions, and connection with anticipated project returns, and our steel, metal recycling, and fabrication businesses, as well as to general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release, as well as in our annual filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors, found on the Internet at www.sec.gov, and if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q. You will also find any reference non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results. And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

Thank you, David. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for being with us for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. As I think you saw operationally, our teams had a very, very, very solid fourth quarter. Our new Millennium Building Systems platform generated record steel fabrication earnings. Our center is showing significant operating improvement with a clear path to profitability in the second quarter of 23. Our new aluminum group is making great progress on our aluminum flat roll investments, and I'll share more details later in the call. Relative to full year 22, the entire steel dynamics delivered an exceptional performance with record sales, earnings, and cash flow generation. I think it was a tremendous achievement, and I'm incredibly proud of our team. They are the foundation of our company, and they are the ones that have truly driven our success over the years. It's their culture of excellence and the strategic positioning executed over the last number of years that allows us to maximize opportunities, resulting in higher lows and higher highs through all market cycles. However, none of this matters without keeping our team safe. Often employees are described as the company's most important resource, but for Steel Dynamics, they're more than that. They are family, and now we number over 12,000 strong. We are continually focused to provide the very best for their health, safety, and welfare. We're actively engaged in safety at all times, at every level, keeping it top of mind in an active conversation at all levels through the organization. With that focus, the team's safety performance improved significantly in 2022. but there's certainly more to do, as we will not rest until we consistently achieve our goal of zero injuries. But before I add any more detail, Teresa, would you like to give us some detailed financial results?

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. I add my sincere appreciation and congratulations to the entire team. We continue to hit new milestones throughout the company, achieving record annual performance in 2022. with record revenues of $22.3 billion derived from strong product pricing and volumes across all of our operating platforms. Record operating income of $5.1 billion and net income of $3.9 billion, or $20.92 per diluted share. And record cash flow from operations of $4.5 billion with EBITDA of $5.5 billion. As Mark mentioned, it's truly an exceptional performance. Regarding our fourth quarter 2022 results, net income was $635 million, or $3.61 per diluted share, which includes additional performance-based special compensation of $24 million, or 9 cents per diluted share, that was awarded to all non-executive eligible team members in recognition of their extraordinary performance, and costs of approximately $168 million, or 67 cents per diluted share, associated with our Sinton, Texas flat-rolled steel mill ramp. Our fourth quarter 2022 operating income declined 35% sequentially to $759 million due to lower realized selling values and seasonally lower shipments within our steel operations, which individually generated operating income of $178 million with shipments of 3 million tons in the fourth quarter. Flat rolled steel mills were negatively impacted during the quarter with high cost pig iron that was purchased earlier in 2022 during the early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Based on current pig iron prices of $500 per ton versus our average costs incurred in the fourth quarter, earnings were negatively impacted by about $80 million. We expect to see that continue into the first quarter. and the negative impact is likely to be around $60 million as we work through all of the higher-priced pig iron before the end of the first quarter. For the full year 2022, operating income from our steel operations was $3.1 billion, representing the second-strongest year in our history, with record annual shipments of 12.2 million tons. Fourth quarter operating income from our metals recycling operations improved to $14 million, based on increased volume and metal spread expansion, despite lower average selling values. For the full year 2022, operating income from Mermel's recycling operations was $130 million. Due to lower volume and average selling values, as spare scrap prices fell nine out of 12 months during the year, it was sequentially lower than the record results in 2021. Our Mexican recycling operations have proven to be a strategic key for both sourcing scrap for our southern steel mills and driving profitability. I want to say a sincere thank you to the Zimmer and Rocha team. We continue to effectively lever the strength of our circular manufacturing model, benefiting both our steel and metals recycling operations by providing higher quality scrap to our steel mills, which improves furnace efficiency, lowers costs, and reduces company-wide working capital needs. And once again, our steel fabrication operations achieved record quarterly operating income of $682 million as metal spreads continue to expand based on steady product pricing and lower steel input costs, which more than offset the impact of seasonally lower shipments. Steel joists and ducted man remain solid as evidenced by our continued strong order backlog, which extends through the first half of 2023. Our steel fabrication platform also achieved another record year in 2022 with operating income of $2.4 billion eclipsing last year's record of $365 million. Congratulations to the entire team. Well done. This demonstrates the power of our circular manufacturing model and the natural hedge our steel fabrication business provides to steel price shifts. During the fourth quarter of 2022, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $1.1 billion due to strong results and release of working capital. For the full year, we generated a record $4.5 billion. Our cash generation is consistently strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable low-cost structure. At the end of the year, we had liquidity of $3.4 billion comprised of cash and short-term investments of $2.2 billion and our fully available unsecured revolver of $1.2 billion. During 2022, we invested $909 million in capital investments, of which over half related to ongoing construction of our four new flat-rolled coating lines and our aluminum flat-roll mill investments. For 2023, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $1.5 billion, the majority of which relates to our aluminum flat-rolled investments and the completion of our flat-roll coating lines. Since our last call, we also announced the location for our aluminum rolling mill as Columbus, Mississippi. Mark will share the strategy of the location later in the call. We're also incredibly pleased to have received near-term state incentives for the project of $250 million with meaningful additional tax benefits to occur over the next 15 years. During the fourth quarter, we maintained our cash dividend of 34 cents per common share after increasing at 31% in the first quarter of 2022. We also repurchased $413 million of our common stock in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we paid cash dividends of $237 million and repurchased $1.8 billion or 12% of our outstanding shares, representing a 53% net income shareholder distribution rate. At the end of the year, $1.3 billion remains available under our current share authorization program. Since 2017, we've increased our cash dividend per share by 119%, and we've repurchased $4.2 billion of our common stock, representing 31% of our outstanding shares. These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation and consistently strong cash flow generation capability, and the continued optimism and confidence in our future. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high return strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that is complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment grade credit designation. We've strategically placed ourselves in a position of strength to have a sustainable capital foundation that provides the opportunity for meaningful strategic growth and strong shareholder returns while maintaining investment grade metrics. our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last five years, from an annual average of $580 million between 2011 and 2015 to $2.6 billion today between 2018 and 2022. A recently announced aluminum investment is consistent with our unchanged capital allocation strategy. We will readily fund our flat-rolled aluminum investments with available cash and cash flow from operations. We also plan to continue strong and responsible shareholder distributions, as we've clearly demonstrated. We are squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable, optimized long-term value creation. Sustainability is also a significant part of our long-term value creation strategy, and we are dedicated to our people, our communities, and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity. In that regard, we're excited about our newly formed joint venture with Amium, a leading producer of renewable biocarbon products. We believe our first joint facility could decrease our Steel Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 35%. We have an actionable path toward carbon neutrality that is more manageable and we believe considerably less expensive than may lay ahead for many of our industry peers. Our sustainability and carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey, and we are moving toward with intention to make a positive difference. We plan to continue to address these matters and to play a leadership role moving forward. As I conclude my remarks, I know there's some of you that follow more detail of our flat-rolled shipments. So for the fourth quarter, our hot-rolled shipments were 959,000 tons, Our cold-rolled shipments were 109,000 tons, and our coated shipments were 1.1 million tons. Mark?

Thank you, Teresa. As was mentioned, steel fabrication saw phenomenal results in the platform and the year. And again, thank you to the phenomenal team. I think their effectiveness and their efficiency and their output per employee exceeds anyone in the industry. So congratulations to you all, and thank you for all you do there. It was another record quarterly performance and record annual operating income of $2.4 billion for the year, with record shipments of 856,000 tons. Although the macro industries remain a little mixed, we believe non-residential construction markets are and will continue to remain strong throughout the year. Despite lower ABI indications, I believe overall architectural firms remain optimistic for 23. Dodge momentum index improved around about 6% in December. Non-residential starts and build rates are also forecast to remain solid through the year. I think the continued onshoring of manufacturing businesses and the infrastructure spending programs will start kicking in that will continue to provide momentum for construction spending. More relevant, I think our customers certainly tell us demand remains solid in spite of economic uncertainty, and it's certainly confirmed by current order rates, not only in the joist and deck business, but also our structural long products business as well. Our steel fabrication order backlog extends through the first half of 2023 with strong pricing dynamics. With continued solid order intake rates, we expect to see continued strong volume and performance from those operations throughout 2023. The fabrication platform is not only a significant contributor itself, but it provides significant pull-through volume for our steel mills, allowing higher through-cycle utilization rates, and it also provides a meaningful natural hedge to lower steel pricing. Our metals recycling platform had a solid year, especially in light of a challenging pricing environment. In 2022, first scrap prices declined nine out of 12 months, and volumes were marginally lower. The team managed to achieve middle margins that were only $2 per gross turn lower than record 2021 results. After seven consecutive months of declining price during 22, first scrap prices improved in December and January, and it's our expectation that pricing will continue a moderate seasonal increase during the first quarter. The metals recycling geographic footprint provides a strategic competitive advantage for our EF steel mills and our scrap-generating customers. In particular, our growing Mexican volumes will enhance our Columbus and Sinton positions, and the Zimmer and Roca acquisitions are performing very well, and integration is outstanding. Metals Recycling team continues to partner with our steel teams to expand shredded scrap separation to provide more high quality low residual scrap to our steel mills. The impact of these efforts, along with others in the industry, has demonstrated that innovation will provide ample scrap supply in the years ahead. Similarly, we are also exploring technologies for more effective aluminum scrap separation in anticipation of sourcing material for upcoming aluminum flat-road operations to maximize recycled content. Steel operations achieved record shipments in their second-best annual earnings in 2022. Again, outstanding performance by an outstanding team, so thank you for each and every one of you there. Record shipments of 12.2 million tons, operating income of $3.1 billion. Our 2022 steel production utilization rate was 92%, excluding Sinton, compared to a domestic industry rate of 78%. And again, our higher utilization rates are clearly demonstrated throughout all market cycles. Our value-added diversified product offerings, differentiated supply chain solutions provide stickiness, and the support of our internal pull-through manufacturing volume has clearly demonstrated time and time again that we can maintain a higher utilization than our peers in the industry. It's a key differentiator. It supports our strong and growing through-cycle cash generation capability and best-in-class financial metrics. Looking forward, customer order entry is good and backlogs are solid. In actuality, December was a historically high order intake month, followed by another historic high order intake year to date. So we see a very, very, very solid market developing for the rest of the year. Auto production is expected to increase in 23 from the lower 22 rates. Dealer inventories have improved, but still remaining meaningfully below historic norms. The build rate in 22 was roughly 14.3 million units, and it's expected to grow a little to about 15, 15.1 for 2023 and higher thereafter. Non-residential construction remains solid, as evidenced by fabrication backlog and, as I said, the long product steel volumes. Residential construction has certainly softened. It's impacting HVAC, appliance, and other housing-related products. But fortunately, much of our portfolio is biased toward replacement. Oil and gas activity is driving improved orders for OCTG and lime pipe, and solar continues to grow. And I think generally this market strength is clearly supporting market price appreciation. And in particular, the challenges with OMSA in Mexico has certainly changed the regional sort of markets. And the Mexico tons are staying in Mexico, and the U.S. market is certainly benefiting from that. In Sinton, the downstream coding lines are running well. They are running below full capacity, though, as the rest of the mill continues to work through startup items. The hot mill, and that's the good news, the hot mill has turned the corner, running more consistency, approaching 65% capability month-to-date. We've been experiencing very, very long sequence lengths on the caster, recently up to 22 hours at a time. We're We're achieving days in excess of 85% capacity, and we should be around about 150,000 tons for the month of January and improving thereafter. Our current utilization is certainly being impacted by certain supply chain issues related to bearings and rolls. This is specific to the castor rolls in the segments, but we expect to have this resolved before the end of the first quarter. which will allow for a much stronger production for the rest of the year. Additionally, high-priced pig iron inventory is being drawn down through the quarter, and raw material input costs will normalize for Q2 through the rest of the year. While financial performance will likely be flat there in the first quarter, as we consume that high-priced pig iron, we expect a significant advance in both productivity and earnings in Q2. All production dimensional capabilities have been proven there. The hot strip mill design is certainly allowed for thermal mechanical rolling, allowing production of higher strength grades with lower alloy content and associated alloy cost. And we've already been approved and shipped some API grades. I think experience to date certainly affirms our technical and process choices. And there's no doubt that this is the next generation electric arc furnace-based flat-road steel technology of choice going forward. We continue to grow. Our exceptional through-cycle operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies. We have the four value-add flat-road steel coating lines under construction. These projects have gone well, and they are targeted for startup in the second half of 2023. We have a galvanizing line and paint line going in at Sinton and similarly into Heartland, and we're seeing very good customer interest for that new volume. Currently, we're the largest domestic non-automotive coater of flat-road steel with an annual coating capacity of over 6 million tons. These four new lines will increase that capacity by an additional 1.1 million tons. We've created unique supply chain solutions for our customers, which allow our downstream lines to remain always fully utilized with our highest margin products. Switching to aluminum, market response from both current and new customers across all market sectors has truly been incredible. To recap the project itself, it's the 650,000 metric ton per year aluminum flat row facility The main mill facility will be located in Columbus, Mississippi. It's close to the southeastern markets and well positioned to serve Mexico. It's on the KCS rail line, which connects us again to Mexico to bring slab up and material back down to Mexico. It also connects to Canada to bring primary aluminum down from the sources up We intentionally located it on the TVA power grid to supply green energy. We have water access by the Tom Bigby Waterway, so the transportation structure is good for us. We obtained a very attractive incentive package, and having our current Columbus Steel Mill close by, It allows us to draw on that facility for talent, for professional services, and there will be a transition or transfer of many of our folks there, which will allow an immediate infusion of our culture to that aluminum facility. So we're excited about that. The mill itself will have on-site melt cast slab capacity of roughly 600,000 metric tons. It will be supported by two satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers. One will be located in the southwest U.S. and one in SLP, Mexico. Both sites, we have letters of intent in place and we're under due diligence, but I believe they will serve us very, very, very well. Obviously, the strategic thought there was to place the slab centers in areas of surplus scrap And the California Western Market and Mexico have an abundance of UVC material. The mill itself, again, is going to be equipped with two cash lines, a coating line, downstream processing and packaging lines. We've actually expanded the project scope there to include additional scrap processing and treatment to maximize recycled content. It's a state-of-the-art facility, and we'll be serving the sustainable beverage and packaging markets, both body and tab, the automotive sector and industrial sectors. The breakdown would be 300,000 tons of can sheet, 200,000 tons of auto, and about 150,000 tons of industrial. All the principal equipment is on order, allowing for a pretty firm start-up of the mill mid-2025. We believe the Mexican slab center will start up in the second half of 2024 and the Southwest U.S. slab center early 2025. The total project cost, including the recycled slab centers, has grown a little from our initial $2.2 billion estimate. The increase is somewhat associated with now that we've truly defined the equipment costs, but we've also Added scope, as I said, we put in scrap processing and treatment and segregation at both the slab centers, which has increased that number a little. And today we estimate a firm budget of about $2.5 billion. It will be 100% funded with available cash and cash flow from operations, so there's no additional debt or financing needed to push this thing forward. And we clearly expect to see about $650 to $700 million of through-cycle annual EBITDA, with an additional $40 to $50 million arising from our recycled omni-source efforts. From an investment premise, and we've talked about it before, but we see the aluminum market not unlike that in the steel industry when we started SDI some 30 years ago. It's an industry that has essentially older assets. There's been little reinvestment over the years, heavy legacy cost. There's inefficiency and sort of high cost operations. And the advantage compared to any other steel market that we've entered is there's actually a supply-side deficit. Every other market in steel has always been oversupplied, and we've had to use our culture and low-cost strategies to penetrate those markets. With aluminum, there's a clear, clear supply deficit will certainly aid the ramp up and a very, very quick profitability of that project. There's certainly a business alignment. We believe it's sort of an adjacent industry, so to speak. It's going to allow us to leverage our core competencies of constructing, designing, constructing, ramping up very, very large capital assets. It allows us to leverage our recycling footprint. OmniSource is the largest North American recycler of non-ferrous products, including aluminum. We recycle over 1.2 billion pounds. Half of that is aluminum today. I believe we will certainly be able to infuse the project with our culture, and that will power a very low cost, very high efficiency operations. We are very, very excited, and we're certainly excited from the reception we're getting from those aluminum customers. Looking forward, we're certainly excited and impassioned by our future. growth opportunities as they will continue the high returning growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years. We were recently added to the S&P 500 index. I feel that's a true testament to our people and to the financial strength and maturity of our company. We're arguably one of the top five steel producers in the world as measured by market cap today and the third largest in North America by capacity. We certainly have the best financial metrics of any of our peers. All these achievements have been achieved in a relatively short time frame. That could not be accomplished without the phenomenal commitment of our extraordinary people. Everyone has had an impact, and everyone contributes each and every day. We were celebrating our 30th year in business later this year, and there are only better things to come. Teams, and the culture they create are our foundation, and I thank each of them for their passion and their dedication. In turn, we are committed to their welfare, their health, and their safety. I remind those listening today that safety for yourselves and each other is our highest priority each and every day. Our success is also driven by the loyal support of our customers who have become partners and friends over the years. Together, we have created many innovative supply chain solutions, creating value for all. We look forward to providing similar value and optionality to all our new customers as we continue to expand our product offerings in the steel arena, but also in the new aluminum market that we're entering. Finally, thank you to all that have invested in us. There's a growing number that are recognizing the power of our culture, the resilience of our business model, and the potential outsized appreciation that our significant yet disciplined growth will return. Certainly look forward to creating new opportunities for all of us today and in the years ahead. So with that said, would love to open the floor up or the call up for questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing the star key followed by digit 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. If you pressed star 1 earlier during today's call, please press star 1 again just to ensure our equipment has captured your signal. Also, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question to facilitate time for everyone. Any additional questions can be addressed upon re-entering the queue. Please hold whilst we poll for questions. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Emily Chang of Goldman Sachs. Emily, your line is live.

Good morning, Mark and Theresa, and thank you for taking my question. I'd like to start with the aluminum rolling mill and what progress you've made there. Maybe curious as to how many sort of contract negotiations or discussions you've started to have with different customers, maybe what end markets you've been targeting so far, and as you think about how steel dynamics may ultimately disrupt this industry, Are there any indications that the pricing construct that we've historically seen of this industry could change?

Thank you. Good morning, and thanks for your question. I do believe that when one says disrupt an industry, that that can be taken both positively and negatively. I think from our perspective, we look at it from a very positive nature perspective. creating optionality for the customer base. Many of our existing steel customers also buy and consume aluminum, and so it's great to be able to create further value for them. I do believe that our advantage, and we've seen this over the last 30 years in steel, in that the power of our culture is allowing us to leverage state-of-the-art equipment tends to drive very, very effective, highly efficient, low-cost operations. And in any commodity market, the low-cost producer will survive and thrive and allow superior financial metrics through the cycle. And so the mill itself, the combination again of our culture, state of the equipment, just simply the plant layout, the high recycled content that we will enjoy, the improved yield impact through the process, the low overhead cost, all will combine to provide a very low cost solution and allow us to, I think, penetrate those markets quite effectively. Will that change the pricing environment? I don't think so. We will be just a partial participant initially anyway in that marketplace.

From a progress perspective, Emily, I think that Mark mentioned earlier that we do have locations that we have in mind and we're negotiating right now for both of the recycled slab facilities plus we now have the location and so there's A lot of excitement happening in Columbus, Mississippi. Last year, we spent just a little over $120 million on the investments. Going forward, just to kind of recalibrate since we do have an increased amount of $2.5 billion, in 2023, we're likely to spend somewhere between $900 and $950 million in capital. In 2024, $1.2 billion in capital. with the remaining $200 to $300 million during the startup year of 2025. So the teams are pushing forward very quickly.

Great. Thank you for the call.

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Carlos de Alba of Morgan Stanley. Carlos, your line is live.

Thank you very much, Mark and Teresa. So I would like to discuss capacity utilization, both for the industry, the company, as well as the expected ramp-up of the fourth value-added coated lines. So you guys have been running, as you described in earlier comments, at a higher capacity utilization of the industry, but now the industry in the U.S. is running around just slightly above 70%, 70%, 75%. How long can this persist, you think, given that prices are increasing? Supply discipline has been there so far, but there are some folks out there that are not doing as well as you, clearly by the numbers that you have posted. So how do you see the situation evolving, Mark, perhaps on this? And then how do you see the ramp-up, the expected ramp-up of the capacity utilization of the fourth value-added lines? You mentioned that you see 80% in 2023 for Synton, but any color on the fourth quarter lines will be great.

You were like a machine gun there, so I'm not so sure I got all your questions. I think from a ramp-up, I will work backwards, but from a ramp-up of the coating lines, those will be, I think, very, very strong. Obviously, we have many, many galvanizing lines, pre-paint lines throughout the company, and we will harness all our technical resources there to get those lines up quickly. We certainly have the substrate available to to fully load those lines. So I think the ramp up, again, those lines will start up at the second half, perhaps fourth quarter, and will ramp up quite quickly through the rest of the year into the following year.

As it relates to the first part of your question, Carlos, around utilization for the industry, I would point out that even if you go back to more challenging times like 2015, et cetera, our utilization still remained very high, and that's because of the power of our pull-through volume, which we would anticipate as well. But we are really optimistic for 2023 with the additional onshoring of manufacturing businesses, which you are seeing in reality, as well as with the infrastructure program and other investment opportunities. We think that steel demand in the U.S. will continue to stay steady to potentially increasing, as well as the trade benefits of melting and casting in the U.S. for the U.S. producer. So, yes, flat roll prices specifically have improved recently, which we think that they should have. we don't think that that's going to have an impact of a negative impact. We think that'll be a positive impact, and we think both industry utilization rates and ours specifically should remain steady to improving in 2023. All right, great.

Thank you very much, Mark and Teresa. I'm sorry, Mark. I'll slow down next time.

Thank you very much. Your next question is coming from Timna Tanners of Wolf Research. Timna, your line is live.

Yeah, hey, good morning, guys. I wanted to ask about the downstream, the fabricated segment, please. Just a little clarity, if you could, on the guidance. As I understand it, you talked about, you know, some slippage from very high levels but still above historical levels. But historically, but dot per ton prior to 2022 is $190 a ton, and 2022 is $28.50 a ton. I'm just wondering if you could provide a little more color on where we should fall between those two extremes. And maybe if you could, it would be helpful. I know Nucor mentioned a year-over-year comparison, or if there's anything that you can provide a little more clarity on, that would be great.

I think one has to recognize that the industry has gone through quite a consolidation comparing it to some years ago. That has allowed... market strength or strong market pricing compared to history. And that will continue. The year as it's unfolding, we're entering the year with an absolute solid backlog through the middle of the year for sure. The order input rate is indeed off the kind of the frenetic crazy pace that it was 12 months ago. But it's very, very, very solid. And we believe that it's going to be a very, very good year for us at year end. I believe there's some concern maybe, as I said earlier, the macro indices may not look as rosy as some would think. And some believe that there's economic uncertainty out there. As I hopefully articulated, we don't see the gloom and doom that everyone else is seeing out there. Our order input rates across all our sectors, with one exception a little off on residential, is solid. And our December bookings, record level on a historic basis, similarly year to date. We just see strength through the year, through our lands, through our order book.

Okay, Mark, is that strength on volume, strength on prices, strength on margins? I mean, do you expect year over year to be up? And just like I'm saying, it's a big gap. I get that it'll be higher than it's been historically, but any color on, you know, if we should expect some, you know, continuation of what we saw in 2022? I think the steel space will...

I'm saying that the steel space will appreciate from the lows. Obviously, we're seeing the hot band pricing off the market pricing at $650, and it's up way over $700 right now. In fabrication, the spreads will likely come off a little. They certainly haven't to any large extent at this point. You're certainly seeing people say, well, our projects are getting delayed. We're not seeing any cancellations at all. We're seeing projects delayed some. But in my mind, it's not an unhealthy thing in all honesty because it's just protracting or extending the cycle, the business cycle in that arena.

Okay. Thanks, Mark. Thank you very much. Your next question is coming from Kurt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Kurt, your line is live.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Mark and Theresa. How are you? Good. Good. I just want to follow up on the fabrication comments. So in the past, you've talked about, you know, you've had backlog basically priced through the middle part of this year, and I think you had discussed I believe pricing in the $5,000 or higher level. So I just wondered if you could confirm that that is kind of the price level your backlog is at. And then if you're sold through the first part of this year, I assume you're bidding projects now for 3Q, can you comment on price levels you see there? And then with respect to some of the delays or project pushouts, from what we've seen, the data center and some of those areas are still very strong, but obviously the Amazon type warehouse spent, a lot of those have been canceled. So if you just kind of help us maybe understand a little bit of the DNA of the backlog, it would be helpful. Thanks.

Good morning, Kurt. So from the perspective of pricing, obviously we're not going to give specific pricing, but you would have seen that the pricing held in very, very steadily in the fourth quarter from an average perspective. And we've seen very steady pricing in the backlog as well. So I would err on the higher side if you think about what's in the backlog. And that's why we have great confidence in the earnings resiliency of the fabrication businesses through at least the first half of this year. And the order backlog, it's an interesting question because it's broadened out, wherein as it was very concentrated in warehouses, it's broadened out now into more, I would say, infrastructure type, you know, hospitals, schools, churches, et cetera. So that's a good thing. And that's what we think we'll see more of. We expect to see very strong volumes for fabrication in 2023 from what we're seeing so far. And, you know, Mark mentioned the order entry activity is very good, too, from a historical perspective. So then you can, you know, contemplate what you think steel prices will do to make an estimation of whether you think we'll continue to see expanding spreads in fabrication or not. That's what we saw in the fourth quarter, definitely. Mark, do you want to add anything?

No, and just the one comment, though, on – It was mentioned that the distribution warehouses are again canceled. We actually are only seeing that in one customer. Well, actually not a customer of ours, but one company. The distribution warehouse business in our backlog is solid and not getting canceled out. So that's not a comprehensive issue. And just to reemphasize what Teresa said earlier on the reshoring, reshoring is real. It truly is. That's going to be supportive of that business. And if you look at just the size of some of these factories, the battery manufacturing facilities, these are huge, massive, massive facilities that will require a lot of joists and deck. So again, It's off the frenetic pace that we saw, but it's a very, very, very solid sector for us for the rest of the year.

Okay, I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up on Sinton. What were the volumes shipped this quarter? And we look at startup costs for the year. It's roughly $430 million, so that's a pretty material drag on your profitability. Can you comment on maybe when you would expect to maybe break even with respect to startup costs, and do you have any guidance for what startup impact would look like in the first quarter? Thank you.

Yeah, so from a volume perspective, Curt, Clinton had shipments in the third quarter of around just under 270,000 tons, and it increased to just under 340,000 tons for shipments in the fourth quarter. And we expect to see that improve in the first quarter and then have a significant improvement in the second quarter of 2023. From a impact, we still expect to see losses as they work through the higher priced pig iron, which is obviously matching against lower seal prices than they were at this time last year. And so it should improve over the fourth quarter losses pretty significantly. but still be higher than we'd like to see, maybe around the $100 million mark.

Great. Thanks so much.

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas. Tristan, your line is live.

Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just a quick follow-up on Sinton. Are you able to share any EBITDA annual contribution you're expecting for next year or maybe kind of a sense of how this compares versus the normalized EBITDA target you mentioned, given maybe a slower startup and then some ramp up of the coding lines as well in Q4 that's going to help? So any kind of a sense you can give us, that would be great.

So I think Mark mentioned the ramp up for the two additional value add lines that will be in Sitton in the third quarter of 2023. Those should ramp, we expect, fairly quickly to start benefiting their product mix. We're not going to give full year guidance for Sitton as far as EBITDA, but I would tell you that I think Kurt mentioned earlier on the call that the losses in 2022 were over $400 million, and it's going to swing to a significant positive for 2023. So just that differential alone will have a significant momentum benefit to our earnings in 2023, but it's just too early for us to give an estimate. But it won't hit through cycle EBITDA in the year where we're still ramping up production.

Okay. That's it. That's really helpful. And my second question is more on the demand side. You talk about steel demand increasing in 2023. Can you give us a sense of what kind of number you're seeing and maybe diving into your key end markets also there, if you're able to share some quantitative number, that'd be great. Thank you.

I guess from our perspective, the higher demand translates in large part to price support and spread support. Our operations are already running at quite a high utilization rate. Further demand obviously is certainly going to help our Senton facility. And given the market sectors, energy is very, very strong in that area, in Texas. That's helping us. And the challenges that we're seeing in Mexico and the imports of sheep coming up from Mexico into the southwest markets, but also even up into the Midwest, have essentially mitigated. They're staying in Mexico now. So that's going to create good demand and great dynamics. So from a market perspective, we will certainly be able to support all the capability that the ramp-up will allow.

Okay. Thanks for the call.

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Andreas Bockenhuser from UBS. Andreas, your line is live.

Thank you very much. Just one question from me, just switching gears a little bit over to the long steel segment. What are you seeing there in terms of potential new orders coming in from the infrastructure bill, the IRA? Are you seeing anything yet there? We've obviously seen rebar prices kind of coming down for the last six, seven months. It doesn't feel like the infrastructure bill is It's kind of biting yet, but what are you seeing on your side to kind of stop the rebar price decline?

Well, as we've suggested in the past, we're not big in the rebar markets, in all honesty. But nonetheless, a structural long products perspective, the infrastructure bill or spending is not necessarily kicked in yet. It typically takes six to nine months for that to materialize, and obviously it's too soon. But come the summer of this year, I think you'll start to see some benefit there.

Got it. That's very clear.

Thank you, Mark.

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Lawson Winder of BOA Securities. Lawson, your line is live.

Good morning, Mark. Good morning, Theresa. Thank you for today's call. Maybe could I ask about the dividend outlook and just kind of get your thoughts on return of capital? So last year you bumped the dividend quite substantially and this year you've expressed some confidence in Simpson and Simpson wasn't contributing. In fact, it was a drag in 2022. So maybe just kind of your thoughts around 2023. Thank you.

Good morning. I'm smiling because Mark tosses things my way, and it's funny how he does it. So from a dividend perspective, we do like to grow the dividend in a way that is consistent so that we're constantly having increases across the spectrum. And I think, as I mentioned, since 2017, we've actually increased the dividend by almost 120%. And we like to do that lockstep with free cash flow increases that are through cycle, like Sitton. I would expect that we should have a pretty significant increase coming forward as well. We like to do those traditionally in the first quarter timeframe. We have additional projects that are a little bit smaller, but that are coming online in 2023 that will add to through cycle earnings. And given our stock price, which has been fantastic, driving up recently, you should expect to see strong shareholder distributions continue, and that would include a strong increase in the dividend coming forward.

Okay, fantastic. Thank you. Congratulations.

Thank you very much. As a reminder, if you do have any questions, please press star 1 on your phone keypad. Our next question is coming from John Tumasos of John Tumasos Very Independent Research. John, your line is live.

Thank you. I try to keep a little spread on non-scrap cost of goods sold per ton, just taking your total corporate revenues per ton and pre-tax per ton and subtracting scrap profits. And it peaked a year ago at 673. It was only 456 this quarter. Are the bigger contributors to that the much lower price of purchased steel for your galvanizing and painting, et cetera, divisions first? Lower profit sharing improvement in the sentinel as it ramps up and hopefully will be the lowest cost when it's lower.

Maybe a mixed shift into some

Please explain, by the way, Nucor's non-scrap cost of goods sales went up and were the highest in the last two years. So theirs is the opposite direction, but that's a separate problem to figure out.

John, great to have you on the call as always, and thanks for the question. I think the biggest parameter is substrate cost. As we've, you know, over the years, we've ramped up, you know, the tech substrate, Harlan substrate. And even at Sinton, we actually pre-purchased about 150,000 tons, maybe a little more, to load the downstream coating lines in preparation for when the hot mill started up. So you're certainly seeing that influence our costs for sure.

And the other thing that you hit, John, was spot on as well. It has to do with mix. So if you think about the increase in the impact from our fabrication business, that would have had some change in that as well. So I think it's both mix and what Mark talked about is the steel substrate.

In your steel mills, Would the normal one scrap cost of goods sold be closer to $200 a ton or $250 or $300?

We've always tried to not share that information, John. So I prefer to stay that way. I would tell you, though, that one, our conversion cost is probably as good as anyone in the world. And number two, people don't necessarily recognize the offsetting sort of efficiency or effectiveness of volume. So on our process lines, galvanizing lines, pre-paint lines, even though some of the input costs are appreciated, The fact that our teams continually just improve productivity, put more volume through, offsetting sort of the overhead and the fixed costs, actual processing costs on those lines have been sort of almost stagnant for the last I don't know how many years.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. There appear to be no further questions in the queue. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

Thank you, and thank you for everyone on the call for your time today. Certainly, thanks to our team. I want to remind each and every one of you that you do contribute. You do have an impact on our success, and stay safe and keep each other safe. Customers, we can't do it without you. And I'd just like to reemphasize those that have invested in us. There's a growing cadre of folks that are building positions that they really are recognizing the power of our culture. It is different. We are different. And we drive absolutely different results. Our business model is allows us to perform and maintain higher through cycle cash generation than our peers. I think hopefully people are starting to recognize that our capital allocation, our growth is incredibly disciplined, particularly on the acquisition side. And I think that speaks to just our underlying results. It's interesting. One measures the the earnings power of our company on an employee basis, we are substantially higher than anyone else out there in our peer group. And again, it speaks to our overall efficiency and effectiveness of the culture, the strategic decisions that the team has made over the years, and it will continue to drop to the bottom line. So investors that support us, again, many, many thanks to you as well. And with that said, have a great day.

Again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and have a great and safe day.