7/28/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Axalta Coating Systems' second quarter 2026 earnings call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the presentation by management. Today's call is being recorded and a replay will be available through May 7th. Those listening after today's call should please note that the information provided in the recording will not be updated and therefore may no longer be current. I will now turn the call over to Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations.

speaker
Colleen Lubic
Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Axalta's second quarter 2026 financial results. I'm Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Chris Villavarayan, our Chief Executive Officer, and Carl Anderson, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, Please turn to slide two for our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures. We posted our second quarter of 2026 financial results this morning. You can find today's presentation and supporting materials on the investor relations section of our website at Axalta.com. Our remarks today in the slide presentation may include forward-looking statements reflecting our current views of future events, and their potential impact on Axalta's performance and with respect to the proposed mergers of equals between Axalta and Axa Novell. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results and outcomes may differ materially. We are under no obligation to update these statements. Our remarks and this slide presentation also contain various non-GAAP financial measures. We included reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures, to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Refer to our filings with the SEC for more information. I will now turn the call over to Chris.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Colleen, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to slide three. I want to begin the call by congratulating our team on an exceptional quarter. We set records for adjusted EBITDA, which increased 5% from the prior period to $305 million. Adjusted Diluted ETFs, which improved 13% year-over-year to 72 cents, exceeding our expectations, and we have the lowest net leverage in Ataxalta's history. Also notable is net sales growth of 3% year-over-year and an excellent adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%. Up 30 basis points, from the prior year period and the highest second quarter in many years. We are clearly on track to achieve the key milestones set as part of our aid plan that we will close out this year. Cash was again a great story this quarter. We delivered 152 million in cash from operations and 107 million in free cash flow, an improvement of 6% year-over-year. Based on our first half performance, we remain well positioned to deliver another year of excellent cash generation. The Axalta team has driven growth, controlled the controllables, and significantly improved the balance sheet. Let's turn to slide four. Across the portfolio, the disciplined execution and operational excellence we have worked on perfecting over the last several years has paid off. Investments in technology within all businesses, substantial operational enhancements, and cultural changes that include accelerated decision-making and accountability has elevated our product and service offerings. These offerings have translated into meaningful business wins across all end markets. Starting with refinish, net sales increased 6% year-over-year. and many more. In addition, in July, we won approximately 800 new North American locations associated with leading MSOs. This represents excellent wins for Axalta and further reinforced our growth momentum. As I've told you before, 90% of our 95,000 refinished customers are small businesses. Time in a body shop is money, and we optimize this for them by creating productivity and efficiency improvements. In industrial, we're far outperforming our expectations for profitability with 13 quarters of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, despite the choppy macro environment in North America. In Asia, we have delivered six consecutive quarters of net sales growth driven by higher demand for energy solutions, and in Europe, we've posted another quarter of volume growth. While North America remains challenged, The business is not standing still. When demand recovers, and we certainly expect that it will, we're positioned to capitalize on volumes as we enter the next upcycle with record levels of profitability driven by a cost structure that is significantly more efficient than in prior cycles. In mobility, we delivered a record quarter in net sales of $474 million, including record quarterly sales in commercial vehicles. Our commercial transportation solutions business continues to perform exceptionally well at record levels, and we're benefiting from the ramp-up in Class 8 production in North America. We are equally pleased with the consistency and profitability of the mobility segment, which delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.4%. The combination of flawless execution and disciplined cost and productivity initiatives differentiate Axalta. This represents our eighth consecutive quarter of lower operating expenses on a constant currency basis. In addition, variable input costs declined this quarter by nearly 2%. These actions contribute to record quarterly adjusted EBITDA and the highest second quarter margin in the last Well-defined A-Plan targets that put our customers first, purpose-driven innovation and profitable growth fueled by outstanding operational performance and a global team that is second to none put us in an excellent position for our next chapter with Axel Nobel. With that, I'll turn the call over to Carl to go through the financials.

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 5, net sales were up 3% year-over-year, coming in at just under $1.35 billion, the highest quarterly sales performance over the past two years. Foreign currency translation tailwinds, contributions from acquisitions, and positive price mix were partially offset by lower volumes in mobility and industrial. Net income was $89 million, a decrease of $21 million versus the prior year period. The decline was primarily attributable to an incremental $31 million of transaction-related costs associated with the pending merger with Axel Novell. Adjusted net income, which excludes merger and acquisition-related costs, increased 10% year-over-year to $153 million, compared to $139 million in the prior year period, driven primarily by performance coding earnings and lower interest expense. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to a record $305 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%. Our performance exceeded expectations due to favorable business mix supported by increased sales and performance codings and continued cost discipline. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 13% year-over-year to a quarterly record of $0.72 per share, Benefiting from higher earnings and lower interest expense. Finally, our momentum and cash generation remained consistent again in the second quarter. Cash provided by operating activities was $152 million, while free cash flow was $107 million, representing increases of 7% and 6% respectively. The improvement compared to the prior year period was driven by better working capital performance and lower interest payments. Turning to performance coatings, the segment delivered solid second quarter results, with net sales increasing 4% year-over-year and 9% sequentially. Compared to the second quarter of last year, growth was driven by acquisitions, positive price mix, and favorable foreign currency translation. Refinished net sales increased 6% to $545 million, supported by volume growth in three out of four regions and positive price mix, as channel inventory normalizes in North America. Industrial net sales increased 2% year-over-year to $327 million. Volume growth in Europe and Asia, along with positive price mix, more than offset lower volumes in North America. Performance coatings adjusted EBITDA increased 10% to $218 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points to 25.1%. The increase was driven by the combination of positive price mix, continued cost discipline, and flat volumes and refinish, allowing us to effectively convert top-line growth into higher earnings. Mobility Coatings delivered a record second quarter net sales of $474 million, an increase of 1% from the prior year period. Light vehicle net sales declined slightly as favorable foreign currency and organic growth in Latin America partially offset lower volumes in other regions. Commercial vehicle net sales increased 7% year-over-year, supported by buying growth in all four regions and favorable foreign currency translation. We are seeing North America Class A production improving and expect this to continue in the second half. Mobility Coatings adjusted EBIT a total of $87 million in the second quarter, with adjusted EBIT a margin of 18.4%. Margins were up 90 basis points sequentially, driven by solid conversion on incremental revenue. Compared to a year ago, tailwinds from higher volumes in commercial vehicle were more than offset by favorable one-time items recorded in the second quarter of last year that did not repeat. Turning to slide 8. In the second quarter, we delivered another period of consistent cash generation, which highlights the durability of our operating model. Through June, cash provided by operating activities has increased 31% compared to the first half of 2025. We also continue to strengthen our balance sheet, reducing gross debt by $80 million during the quarter and $135 million year-to-date. Through June, interest expense was 16% lower than the prior year period, reflecting the benefits of our deleveraging efforts. As a result, we ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 2.2 times the lowest in the company's history and remain on track to exit the year below 2 times. As we turn to our outlook on slide 9, our strong second quarter results and performance across the organization is putting us on an excellent path for 2026. External forecasts and key performance indicators remain broadly consistent with the assumptions underpinning our prior guidance. That said, the situation in Iran, tariffs, and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to create some uncertainty. As a result, we believe it is prudent to maintain our previously issued full-year guidance for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted diluted earnings per share, and free cash flow. Having said that, we continue to operate very effectively and are prepared to convert on higher volumes if they come in stronger than planned. Specifically, for the third quarter, we expect net sales to increase by low single-digit percent compared to the prior year period, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $295 million to $305 million. We also anticipate adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.70, up 4% from a year ago. Overall, we are encouraged by our first half results and believe we are well positioned to deliver another year of record financial performance. Turning to slide 10, we're now just over a week away from a defining milestone. Our special general meeting on August 5th for shareholders will vote on the proposed merger of eagles with Axl & Bell. Regulatory clearances also continue in parallel and we remain on track for closing in late 2026 or early 2027. From a financial standpoint, the fundamentals of a transaction are exactly where we want them. We continue to expect approximately 600 million annual run rate cost synergies, with roughly 90% captured within the first three years following close. We also see attractive revenue synergy opportunities through cross-selling, technology sharing, and expanding customer access across a broader global platform. The planning work completed to date has only strengthened our confidence in those numbers. Just as important, the results we've walked through today mean we'll enter this combination from the strongest financial position in our history. Record earnings, robust cash generation, and our lowest ever net leverage. Following the vote, integration preparation will accelerate as we prepare for day one. Now, I will turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Carl. I open today's call by celebrating our outstanding quarter, and I want to close it by thanking the people who made it possible. To our employees around the world, thank you for your commitment to our customers and to our performance. Your focus on execution, productivity, and operational excellence have energized and strengthened Axalta as a leading coatings company. Because of your efforts, we're well positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities, maintain industry-leading profitability, and maximize the value of our proposed combination with Axel Nobel for our shareholders. Congratulations on a job well done. Thank you for joining us today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your keypad. To leave the queue at any time, press star two. We ask that you please limit your questions to one and one follow up. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. And our first question will come from Matthew Dio with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Dio
Analyst, Bank of America

Morning. We're finished a bit better than we had expected in 2Q. So as we look into the second half, you know, with the destocking headwinds easing, how are you feeling about volumes? Can this business grow volumetrically year over year in the back half? And as we look at that 800 new stores, I guess, in July, what does that mean for organic growth contributions?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good morning, Matt. Again, certainly proud of our performance in Q2. And really, if you think about it, a lot of that is, as I think about the business, it's really tied to stability and recovery. It's a lot of what we've been seeing when it comes to the market. I would say the collisions are starting to be in line with our expectations. North America was down about mid-single digits. And as I look at Europe, that was more like low single digits. So collisions are coming in exactly where we wanted. And then it transitions to the strategy. And here, when you think about the strategy, it's always what we've said we're going to do. So it's acquisitions, what we drive in U-Body Shop wins, adjacencies, and then pricing. And across all those three elements, We're well positioned. So three of those elements you can see in Q2, but really to your point, as we look forward into Q3 and Q4, the new body shop wins. It's in total, we're at about 2,700 body shops through July. So that's, on average, we do about 2,500 per year. So we're well ahead there. And additionally to the fact that we won $800,000 Body Shops that are in the MSO space. What benefit we get in the back half is really more on the volume side. So we'll certainly pick up on the volume side at the back half. We certainly have, obviously, what we've done on pricing that's coming through. And then on top of that, we continue to work on acquisitions. We did some M&A on distributors outside North America, especially in Europe and Asia, primarily in Australia. That's Certainly coming through in Q2, but we also expect that benefit to flow through the back half. So, again, we're feeling quite good with where performance coatings, or more importantly, refinishes sitting at this point.

speaker
Matthew Dio
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. And if I could, free cash flow was similarly a bit better than expected. Primarily looks like working capital, which is maybe a bit counterintuitive to me in the backdrop. So, How did you manage this? How sustainable is this? Are there givebacks in 2H? How should we think about the cash flow profile for the year?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Matt, thanks for the question. That's a great question. And really, I think that's, again, certainly something that we're very, very proud of. The best part of this earnings call, as I think about Q2, is a ton of comments on records. But specific to cash, I think we've become really a cash-generating engine. And for that, the credit here is really to Carl and the management of cash by the finance team. So I'm going to turn it over to Carl.

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Chris. Yeah, Matt, to your question, the team did a really nice job of improving our cash conversion cycle year on year. So we improved about 10%. A lot of that was driven by turning our inventory days a lot quicker. So we actually reduced that about eight days on a year-over-year basis. And it's important because while free cash flow is up 6%, it does include certain deal fees as well. So if I was to exclude that, we would have been up to close to about 20% on free cash flow on a year-over-year comparison. And that's at the same time that we just are continuing to drive overall improvements within the business. So overall, good story on cash flow. Our leverage is at a record of 2.2 times. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question will come from David Begetier with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Begetier
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning. Chris, industrial looks like things did pick up in the second quarter. Obviously, Europe and Asia. What was the volume improvement overall in that business, and where are you seeing the pockets of strength overall in industrial? Thank you.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Actually, you know, Good morning, David. I would say volumes in industrial and Q2 were actually down about 1%. Primarily, if you look at it, net sales were up 2%, so what happened here is really what we did with pricing and our actions in driving costs and just the pure focus on that team and really looking at margins. If I look at from where we started about two, three years ago, are actually up twice where they used to be. So that team's just done a phenomenal job of just managing cost with the macro where it's been. But specific to, you know, as you look forward or what we see in terms of volumes, I would say North America still remains choppy and challenged. But our true story on wins and volume is really coming from Europe. Europe is up and many more. All of that is coming in just as a strong positive. And even as we look at Q3 and our numbers in July, that performance continues. So at this point, actually, our industrial business, as I look at Q2, is that it's the best. Thank you for joining us.

speaker
David Begetier
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Very good. And just to back when we finish, to be clear in Q3, do you expect volumes to be flat or up or down?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

I expect volumes to be pretty much flat. For Q3 and then up as I think about Q4. Overall, I would say in the back half, we expect volumes to be slightly up. But in reality, it's what we're going to do in terms of, if I look at the back half of the year, we're expecting planes to be down as we've always consistently been seeing, down mid-single digits. So what the team's doing with the winds is driving us to hold flat to up. The difference with Q3, as you know, with all the new wins that we have, it takes a bit of time for this to actually roll through into the P&L. So that's what's driving, let's call it the ramp-ups, but we do expect Q4 to start picking up in terms of volumes.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Chris Parkinson with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

speaker
Chris Parkinson
Analyst, Wolfe Research

I'd like to just piggyback off of Dave's question real quick. So as it relates to the refinish volume outlook in the second half, I know this is a tough question, but if you could just do your best to parse out, you know, how much of this is just, hey, you know, destocking is, the activity is, you know, in the past, just mathematically speaking, we're doing better in terms of relative stability. How much of that is actually, you know, Collision rates, it seems like those are more or less in line with your expectations. And then how much of that in terms of the net body shop wins would be something like Iris contributing specifically in Europe? I'd love to hear how you're thinking about those three variables. Thank you.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Hey, good morning, Chris. Thanks for the question. Pretty detailed one there. I'll break it out. So, you know, if you think about it, and as we described, the stocking, the stocking has an impact for us. Thank you for joining us. If I think about North America, that's dropping about mid-single digits. Europe's probably low single digits. But on top of that, in terms of all the other metrics that you asked about, I would say miles driven is up slightly. Nothing's changed there in terms of insurance rates. Insurance rates continue to abate. and I would say that's coming in slightly better than we've planned and certainly used car pricing is also trending the right way. So, the stockings are positive, miles driven is a positive, insurance rates are slightly better, used car pricing is good. So, that's what's driving, I would call it the recovery or the expectations of a better future here. Obviously, the counter to this is, you know, with where affordability is, consumers are still in some cases And the last part of this is also total losses are going up because of the cost of repairs. So parts costs as well as cost of repairs are all having a bit of an impact on this. So that's the, let's call it the look on the market itself, but it still comes in from our perspective. What we plan for is this mid-single digits decline through the, low to mid-single digits decline through the back half. The positive for us, when you think about the wins, again, the MSO win that we won in North America is 600 body shops. It's one of the top five MSOs in North America. We're very, very good with this. And then on top of that, additionally, what the teams have won, it's just not a North American story for us. In North America, we won actually two large MSOs, but in Europe... The team's done another great job of securing a large one. And if I move on to Asia, we won the BMW business in Japan where we won 80 body shops there. That's something that we've never had for a long time. So, you know, you added all that up. The confidence on the new business wins is what gives us great confidence of where the business can really build out for the future here. And then on top of that, what we've done in adjacencies, our adjacencies growth is up, you know, 15 million bucks. So, it's been a very, very good story for us.

speaker
Matthew Dio
Analyst, Bank of America

Got it.

speaker
Chris Parkinson
Analyst, Wolfe Research

And then, you know, you and Carl obviously done a lot on costs. Irrespective of basically the macro outlook or what's been going on with your refinish customers, can you just comment on how things are run rating into the second half of this year, where you're seeing potentially new opportunities, how you're executing on existing opportunities? Is there anything to help us triangulate how you would assess your own cost execution report card into the deal closed, presumably? Thank you.

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Chris. Good morning. It really starts with the culture of Axalta. Across, whether it's functions, across VUs, across what we're doing in purchasing, it's something that we talk about daily, weekly, monthly. And it just is the overall focus, really, of the company to be much more efficient as we progress. And so I think the trajectory that we're on continues. You know, we're not done. There's more opportunities as we continue to look at what we can do throughout the rest of this year. But more importantly, I think it provides a really, really strong building block of what we can be doing when we get this merger over the finish line and get that closed with accidental balance. So I would just say more of the same, Chris, as we look to execute the rest of this year.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Laurent Fargo with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

speaker
Laurent Fargo
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Yes, good morning. I had a question around, I guess, the interplay between volumes and pricing, and I was wondering if you had any sense during K2 that there was a bit of pull forward as customers jumped ahead of price increases that are coming, I guess, effectively into free?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Hey, good morning, Laurent. No, we actually saw very little of that. And I'll probably go through why. A lot of the pricing that we drove was early in Q2. So, you know, as we finished Q1, we essentially came up with a perspective that, you know, we had mid single digit inflation and we essentially had all three businesses move out with pricing early on in the quarter. And as I look at, you know, where backlog sat at the back half of Q2, Thank you for joining us. If I look at peak inflation, though, peak inflation really hits us more in Q3 and a bit in Q4. And a lot of this is driven from the fact that we actually performed incredibly well from a cost perspective, I think, in the front half, in the first half. And here, if you think about the fact that we had inventory levels that were providing us a bit of tailwind as well as the consistent work, All of that provided a really good tailwind. But a lot of that, a bit of that is also being saved into what we have in the back half. The purchasing teams will continue to obviously act and keep working on the back half. From a pricing perspective, I think, you know, we're at a good spot. We might price in certain pockets as we go forward because obviously with the Middle East conflict, Thank you for joining us. Performance Coatings was weak and essentially the pickup was a lot of it with the stocking and then just the demand picture that was driving both refinish and industrial.

speaker
Laurent Fargo
Analyst, BNP Paribas

And so I guess going back to the willingness to be prudent for the guidance for the second half, what I'm hearing is that there is nothing specifically really that you're watching out for beyond uncertainty. There's nothing in terms of business units or and many more. Thank you.

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

We performed better in the first half than we would in the second half, but it's all part of the overall planning that we have in place that, at least on a gross level, we see the cost impact on RAS being up about 10 single digits for the full year. That should be that for Q3, maybe takes up a little bit more to get to the low end of high single digits where you're going to be exiting the year. But as Chris talked to The productivity that the purchasing team is driving is a pretty significant offset that we would expect to be able to mitigate that to be able to deliver the guidance construct that we put forward.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Caleb
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. This is Caleb. I'm for John. I just had a quick question in commercial. If you could just talk to some of kind of like the strength you saw there. It came in a little bit better than we were expecting, so maybe just some color there would be great, would be greatly appreciated.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Yeah, good morning, Teo. So, it's really two things. The first one is obviously the North American Class 8 market is picking up, and so It's been on the normal cyclical lows, and then what we're starting to see is it returning to about 300,000 truck builds for a year, which normally comes in about 75,000 trucks per quarter. And that's what we're seeing in the back half of the year. So that's also what's driving a little bit of the improved performance. So that's one story. But the second story, what's really driving our performance here is Robert Roop, Carl Anderson A few years ago, started focusing on everything that's outside just class A, such as off-highway, military, everything that we do on ambulances, fire trucks, RVs, and the team's really been crushing it. That business has now grown to about 50% of our overall CV business, so it's a great, great story here, and that's actually up 5% year over year. That plus where CV is going is what's driving the improvement in mobility, even though we see, let's call it light vehicle markets being slightly down. Additionally, the light vehicle team has also done an amazing job winning new business in Europe and LATAM. I would say a year, year and a half now. And they've actually had a program there called Fast and Furious, which was to essentially transition some LV customers as well as focus on some CV customers. And that's just come in well beyond our expectations. So all of that's what's driving the positive performance, not only in mobility, but certainly in CV customers.

speaker
Caleb
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. That's really helpful. Maybe just going back to refinish, I know one of the dynamics for your business has been kind of like MS winning, New Body Shop wins, and then also kind of like the MSO consolidation. If you had to kind of like frame what inning we are in and that dynamic kind of playing out, how would you frame that?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

I think it's probably early to call. The MSO consolidation has, I think just based on where the markets have been, have kind of slowed down a bit. But that said, the large MSOs obviously play a significant part in In our business, primarily because a lot of what we do on the premium side runs through the MSO space. And Axalta, our refinish business is our crown jewel. Our refinish is a business that not only accounts for almost half of what Axalta is, but certainly from a premium perspective, we are obviously also the leader in this marketplace. and as you think about that in terms of MSOs we provide to now you know we move from 12 to about 13 of the top 20 MSOs and why this is really really important is the MSOs usually provide to all the insurance carriers for all the work that's done so it's very very important to stay focused in this space and for us we're very very focused again on driving this because it essentially grows our refinish or our premium business. But additionally, it gives us the foundation to also expand in our economy business. It gives us the scale. It gives us the products. It gives us the technology. And really, on the economy side, you know, with what we do in adjacency, that's been something that we were at 9%. We've grown up to 11%, 12% over the last three years. In the premium space, we've been north of 40%. Now, where I want to take you here is the economy space. This is a great story because the concept that the merger with ExxonMobil gives us the opportunity to grow in the economy space because that's somewhere that they're very, very strong with. So, again, as I think about refinish, we're well-positioned with the MSOs, and I believe as far as we continue to grow here and with the merger with Axo, we'll become even a stronger player here.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Gansham, Punjabi with Baird. Please go ahead.

speaker
Gansham Punjabi
Analyst, Robert W. Baird

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. You know, Chris, just obviously there's a ton of dynamics going on with the and, you know, and so on and so forth. If you can zoom out a bit, what does the macroeconomic backfill feel like across, you know, the major regions you have exposure to? So North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America. Are you seeing any sort of change versus the previous baseline, you know, relative to some of the distortions that we're talking about as it relates to order patterns and, you know, destocking and stuff like that?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good morning, Gancham. I think not really. I would say it's pretty much consistent with what we saw in the last two quarters or probably consistent to what we've been saying. I think if you zoom out, I would call it overall the expectations. If we look at each of the markets, I would call it refinishes. Collision claims are going down mid-single digits is what we forecast here. Are we seeing any improvements around the globe? seems stable. And then finally, when it comes to industrial, I would call it North America continues to be weak and Europe seems to be stable here as well. And then with that, I will probably turn it over to Carl to just maybe add some more color.

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, gotcha. Just the only other point that I think is helpful to add is you think about the second half for our revenue story, the foreign exchange tailwind will begin to abate. And so as you look at the second half, we are planning for revenue to be up low single digits. Part of that will be the volume story that Chris talked to on refinish. But also, you know, we do expect price mix to also be positive for the year. And we continue to have a little bit of accretion from the acquisitions that we've done previously in refinish as well. So I think it's an important story is even in this environment, we're able to kind of continue to grow top line here.

speaker
Gansham Punjabi
Analyst, Robert W. Baird

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then I'm sorry if I missed this, but on the Rometro cost trend line, what was inflation on the Rometro side for 2Q, and what's your current expectation for the back half of this year with all the ups and downs with upstream energy costs, et cetera?

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so full year, at least it's important to know this is on a gross basis, right? So this would be not including any of the productivity. but we do expect full ERV about a mid-single digit headwind to overall raw materials. Q2 was about low single digits headwind as well. Okay. Thanks so much. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Roberts with Azuho. Please go ahead.

speaker
Edlin Rodriguez
Analyst, Aizuho Securities

Thank you. Good morning. It's Edlin Rodriguez on behalf of John. So, quick question on industrial. I mean, I always thought in general that the U.S. is doing better than Europe, but clearly your European business is outperforming North America. Like, what do you think the U.S. is lagging for you in that business?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Well, certainly I think, you know, when it comes to North America... Thank you for joining us. in North America. Specific to Europe, that market, specific to the products we serve, here we provide eco. Obviously, this is a different element that also goes into bagels, so we have a higher market performance here, and the market is also a little bit stable for us as we look at Europe, specific to the products we provide.

speaker
Edlin Rodriguez
Analyst, Aizuho Securities

Okay, great. And can you talk about China, what you see in there in terms of OEM? I mean, like, what's your outlook for Chinese auto OEM?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so right now, you know, if I think about the globe, our expectations are about 90 million. Specific to China, I would call that about 32 million for the whole year. And, you know, if I look at those numbers from last year to this year, I would call that almost flat. and even if I look at, let's call it front half to back half, I call it flat. And here the dynamics is primarily driven by the fact that I think, you know, the local market especially, it's not a question of consumer confidence. I think it's more a question of there's a ton of new models and new technology that's coming out and I think folks are just waiting for the new models in terms of the customers we work with for the back half. That said, you know, the strength for us that we're seeing in China is the export market. The export market is up 70% on a comp basis, and so that's certainly driving some great performance from that team as we think about looking forward here.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Sethi Fisher with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Seth Fischer
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, good morning, guys. Just a question on raw materials. So when you look at the increased inflation in the back half, is that just current prices rolling through the P&L or do you actually expect market prices for a lot of your raw materials to move higher? And then within that, is everything moving roughly the same or is there a lot of differentiation between your products where some are maybe up 15%, 20% and others are flat? Just how volatile is the basket for you guys?

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Duffy. The bulk of what we're seeing would be prices kind of holding where they are now, so it just would be the rolling effect into the P&L. We do see some pretty significant differences depending on what we are buying. So solvents, as you would expect, it's been up probably 15%, 20% just based off what's happening with oil prices. Monomers has also been up as well, probably high single digits. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question will come from Jeff Sekusiak with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jeff Sekusiak
Analyst, JP Morgan

Thanks very much. Your price mix in mobility was down about 1.5%. Is that a bottoming for you? Do you think your price comparisons will improve from here? And you get all the way to a positive price comparison by the end of the year?

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, good morning. Yeah, I think this relates to kind of our mobility overall business. We do expect it to begin to inflect in the third quarter, so you'll start seeing that turn positive for the third quarter. We've got to think through that. Keep in mind, some of what you saw was more mix-related than price, if we think about what happened in the second quarter. And also, we do have the RMIs that represent about half

speaker
Jeff Sekusiak
Analyst, JP Morgan

Do you think your light vehicle volumes will grow in the second half, or that's too hard in the current environment?

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

We are showing volumes to be up slightly, and it's really driven by the wins. So what the teams have done in terms of winning in Europe and Latin America, that should drive some volume growth in the back half. That's purely looking at Thank you. Our next question will come from Joshua Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Lucas Damano
Analyst, UBS

Good morning, this is Lucas Damano for Josh. I just want to get back to a finish. So, I mean, it seems like price mix there was sort of up maybe low single digits in 2Q. I know there's sort of some noise there looking forward with sort of the weak comps in North America impacting the mix. But you guys kind of called out as well that North America has been the sort of weakest area in terms of claims too. So I just wanted to just sort of understand the interaction there and how you're thinking about a potential improvement in sort of price mix in the second half, given that the higher rules are sort of going to be flowing through as well. Thanks.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Well, maybe I'll start and maybe turn it over to Carl. But from a perspective of how we think about North America, obviously, you know, with a lot of Thank you for joining us. Nothing different than what we've said previously in terms of the consistency primarily driven by the stocking. But the additional benefit we also get is the new business winds coming through. So with that, Carl?

speaker
Carl Anderson
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and maybe just to add a little bit more color as I think about the finish. One, I think it is important just to note is the expectations we had for what occurred in the second quarter of Thanks for joining us.

speaker
Lucas Damano
Analyst, UBS

Great, thanks. And then I guess just on the light vehicle volume side, so it looks like volumes were down maybe sort of three or so in the quarter versus the industry build rates were sort of down slightly or close to flat. And first off, your volumes probably came in about 200 basis points below the build rates roughly. So I guess just what's driving that divergence there and how do you see sort of your... I'm looking this up relative to Bill Rose. Thanks.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it's primarily driven with the customers that we serve and, you know, specific to the customers in China as well as our customers in North America. And what happens is, you know, as those customers go, we go. And we saw, obviously, with those customers, we call it dropping a little bit in volume. That's what's driven that little bit of a difference. That said, you know, the new business wins that we're getting in Europe and Latin America. Additionally, in North America, some of those customers were also moving manufacturing between North America, sorry, the U.S. and Mexico. So those volume changes eventually will sort itself out. And that's why we believe the back half will be back to an expectation of volume growth.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We have now reached our allotted time for questions, and I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris for any closing remarks.

speaker
Chris Villavarayan
Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you. Thanks, everyone, for calling in, and I think, you know, from my perspective, again, you know, thanks for your continued interest, and certainly to the employees of Axalta. You know, great quarter. Certainly, we'll be performing at this rate going into Q3, and certainly looking forward to the vote here in a week. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This brings us to the end of the day's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

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