7/29/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Good day and welcome to the Peabody Q2 2026 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kala Finklang. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kala Finklang
Investor Relations

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for Peabody's second quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Peabody's President and CEO, Jim Grech, Chief Financial Officer, Mark Spurbeck, and Chief Commercial Officer, Malcolm Roberts. After our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. Before we begin, I want to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Please review the full statement contained in our earnings release and consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Kala, and good morning, everyone. KeyBuddy delivered on a number of important accomplishments during the second quarter. while continuing to manage through some near-term operating and cost challenges. Most importantly, we maintained our focus on safety across the portfolio, which remains the foundation of everything we do. During the quarter, we also made meaningful progress on a number of key priorities. At the Centurion mine, we are now approaching targeted production levels. I'll provide in a moment. Our seaborne thermal operations delivered on volumes and costs supported by strong execution despite the higher fuel cost environment. We completed multiple strategic financial actions that further strengthened our capital structure, lowered our interest expense, freed up restricted cash and effectively returned cash to shareholders. Mark will provide more detail on these actions shortly, but I'll steal part of his thunder and note that we have effectively repurchased 5 million shares.

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

In addition,

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Peabody was selected by the Department of Energy for a grant to advance rare earth element and critical mineral development opportunities in the Powder River Basin. This recognition reinforces the strategic value of our existing asset base and the opportunities to unlock value beyond our core coal mining business. At the same time, the quarter included several challenges. In U.S. thermal, volumes were impacted by the extended shoulder season in the Powder River Basin and heavy rainfall across the Midwest. In Seabourn Metallurgical, costs were temporarily elevated by commissioning related spend at Centurion. And as expected, we faced some of the highest fuel costs in years. Bottom line, $24 million of adjusted EBITDA is nowhere near the type of quarter that this platform is capable of or that we expect going forward. And overall, we exited the quarter with improving operational momentum, a stronger financial foundation, and continued confidence in the long-term value of our diversified portfolio. With that, let me provide a more detailed update on Centurion. The primary challenge that we addressed was realignment of shields that had been impacted by the roof conditions we encountered due to the longer than planned commissioning period. The shield alignment process was laborious and time-consuming and more expensive than we expected, but it is now behind us. The long wall is in excellent shape and remaining roof control issues are largely limited to a rock faulting zone spanning about 20% of the long wall face that we will continue to work through during the third quarter. I'll also note that run of mine production, prep plant yields, and rail shipments have all strengthened in recent weeks. Given where we are against plan, we are targeting one and a half to two million tons of sales in the second half with 500 to 700,000 tons expected this quarter, factoring in anticipated shipping schedules. Our focus now is on safely accelerating production rates and improving consistency. As this occurs, we expect the elevated cost of the first half to begin to trend more in line with long-range projections as we move through the second half of the year. It's worth recounting the extraordinary potential represented by Centurion. It's the highest quality coking coal product in the world. It's projected long-term cost structure is first quartile for this type of coal, further expanding margins. It has a 25-year mine life that further solidified Centurion's role as Peabody's cornerstone asset in Australia. That's a summary of Centurion's progress. Given the importance of the mine to the portfolio, we'll look to provide updates to the markets in both August and September, ahead of the next earnings review. Beyond our core business, our Peabody Development Group continues to advance multiple initiatives and opportunities we have to develop rare earth elements and critical minerals from our extensive asset base. We were honored to receive a conditional award from the U.S. Department of Energy to demonstrate the feasibility of recovering rare earth elements from coal-related feedstocks. Our work on rare earth elements extends across multiple mining operations and includes several initiatives beyond the project supported by the DOE award. In Critical Minerals, we continue to make encouraging progress in our expanded exploration and evaluation of germanium across our existing operations. We're working with leading process technology partners and an industrial consumer of germanium to demonstrate technical and commercial feasibility with the objective of establishing domestic production and creating a new high-value revenue stream for Peabody. Each of these opportunities is viewed through a capital-light prism aiming to work with partners, create new pathways for Peabody growth, and further monetize our resource base. While we are highly focused on near-term execution, I'd also like to take a step back for a minute and note that we have spent the last several years building a platform from which to generate meaningful shareholder returns for many years to come. This platform includes flagship operations in our Seabourn Met, Seabourn Thermal, and U.S. Thermal businesses, sustainable operations with a number of capital light extension projects progressing in Australia, a fortress balance sheet with a capital structure built for the long haul, a portfolio position to benefit from mid-cycle Seabourn Thermal and metallurgical pricing, and several early-stage initiatives within Peabody development that add important growth optionality. We look forward to delivering the earnings and cash flow generation capabilities of our platform in the future. With that, I'll turn it over to Malcolm for a discussion of U.S. and global market fundamentals.

speaker
Malcolm Roberts
Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks Jim. The second quarter saw continued strength in both seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal markets amid some softness in U.S. thermal coal. Starting with seaborne metallurgical coal, prices reached a several year high in the second quarter with Premium hard coking coal averaging $238 a tonne, a 29% improvement over year ago levels. Driving that was steel demand that was good but not great and a met coal supply picture that saw sharp tightening due to a tragic mine accident in China's Shanxi province. That accident has led to widespread safety inspections and curtailed production in Shanxi. along with several other Chinese provinces that experienced a similar dynamic from less widely reported safety incidents. The actions of one province in China may not appear to be significant in the world market but Shanxi produces more met coal than the entire seaborne met market and in fact twice as much coal in total as the entire United States. The effects of production constraints have been stark We estimate that 30 million tonnes of production were already taken out of supply in the second quarter compared with the seaborne market that only totals 85 million tonnes a quarter. Continued supply reductions are expected throughout the second half of the year. Switching to seaborne thermal coal markets, demand remained strong throughout the second quarter due to strong coal fuel generation across multiple countries in Asia. Liquified natural gas, the key competitor to seawall and thermal coal, saw prices move higher because of ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Japan-Korea marker LNG prices started the year in the $10 to $11 per mm BTU range. This soared to $24 to $25 per mm BTU and even now remain just below that mark. As we've seen so often, major events remind numerous countries While coal fuel generation is so reliable and affordable, the Iran conflict is no different. Seaborne thermal prices have responded to strong coal fuel generation. Newcastle's 6,000 K coal product averaged $137 in the second quarter, more than 35% above prior year levels. We've also seen the lower heat API5 product respond in a similar fashion. While seaborne thermal demand looks to remain strong as we move through the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, supply is likely to be constrained by Indonesian policy settings. Indonesia continues to tweak its policies relating to coal production, exports and domestic market obligations. Indonesia is the largest seaborne thermal coal exporter, yet we are hearing of rolling blackouts in Indonesia as coal fuel generators run short of coal. Indonesia's 2026 coal output is expected to be meaningfully lower than prior year levels. Shifting to US thermal coal markets, the demand picture was impacted by what seemed to be a four to five month spring in many parts of the country. Heating degree days were off sharply in the first quarter, with a second quarter that was also mild. That led to natural gas prices that averaged 13% lower and the strong first half of 2025 driving some coal to gas switching. I will also note though that we've seen a return to what I would call longevity maintenance actions by a number of coal-fueled plants in the US. In prior years maintenance outages were more modest given expected retirements. Why maintain a plant that's going out of service? Now though We've seen a trend of plants taking longer seasonal outages to enable more comprehensive repairs and maintenance. Customers recognise that these plants may be operating for longer than originally expected, while those longer outages dampened the springtime coal loadings. They also set up for a stronger long-term thesis. Summer, of course, has now settled in across the US and grid statistics are showing the important role We've begun to see an increased level of offtake in line with the established trend of recent years when July to December is the period where coal burn is at its strongest. That's a quick review of the markets. Now over to Mark for a discussion of the financials.

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Malcolm, and good morning to all. For the second quarter, we reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $90.6 million or 74 cents per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of 24 million. The quarter reflected significant progress at Centurion, strong Seabourn Thermal results and lower US thermal volumes. We also completed several strategic financial transactions to unlock shareholder value, which I will discuss in more detail after walking through the segment results. The Seabourn Thermal platform shipped 3 million tons in line with expectations and consistent with the first quarter. Export shipments totaled 1.9 million tons, and the average realized export price of $95.87 increased 11.2% quarter-over-quarter and 31.6% compared to the prior year period. Segment costs of $58 per ton were at the low end of guidance, resulting in a 23% adjusted EBITDA margin and over $52 million of adjusted EBITDA. Seabourn metallurgical shipments totaled 2.5 million tons. exceeding expectations by 200,000 tons due to higher volumes from Metropolitan and the CMJV. Costs were above guidance at $155 per ton, primarily reflecting higher commissioning costs at Centurion. The segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million as higher Centurion costs were only partially offset by a 7% quarter-per-quarter improvement in realized pricing. Our U.S. thermal business reported 19.8 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, marked by the extended shoulder season which resulted in lower volumes across the platform. In the Powder River Basin, shipments totaled 16.4 million tons, significantly below our 19 million ton expectation. As mild weather extended into June and cold generation plants undertook the extensive longevity maintenance that Malcolm noted, We kept a keen eye on labor efficiency and equipment utilization, moving an additional 11 million cubic meters of overburden, uncovering additional coal. The related costs naturally ran through second quarter results and temporarily increased unit costs to $14 per ton, but they will provide a significant benefit to costs for the rest of the year. In fact, we expect costs to be $2 lower or about $12 per ton in the third quarter. Other US thermals shipped 3 million tons, 400,000 tons below guidance, reflecting the extended shoulder season and heavy rainfall across the Midwest late in the quarter that delayed shipments. Despite lower volumes, costs were kept in line at $46 per ton, demonstrating focused, disciplined cost control. The segment contributed $26.9 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. Turning to the balance sheet and capital structure. At June 30, the company had over $500 million cash and total liquidity over $900 million. In the second quarter, we completed several strategic financial transactions that unlocked shareholder value, jumpstart shareholder returns, lower borrowing costs, and increased financial flexibility. First, we issued $250 million of convertible notes due 2031 with a 0.5% coupon, and together with the related capped call transaction, established a conversion price of $50.61 per share. Second, we utilized the net proceeds together with cash from the balance sheet to redeem $241.2 million of the 2028 convertible notes with a 3.25% coupon for cash consideration of $386.8 million. The $145.6 million premium paid with cash represents the share repurchase of more than 5 million shares using a weighted average price of $28.92 per share. The convertible note transactions increased the average conversion price on the convertible notes from $18.99 to $38.31 per share, reduced the diluted share count by 6.2 million shares, and lower annual interest expense by 6.6 million. Third, we significantly enhanced our global surety program. The financial profile built over the last several years provided for a transition to standard indemnification agreements, lower collateral requirements, and the replacement of cash collateral with asset-backed facilities. These changes unlocked $350 million of restricted cash and collateral while maintaining one of the best well-collateralized reclamation bonding programs in the industry. Lastly, we increased our revolving credit facility to $400 million extended the maturity to June 2030 and lowered borrowing costs by 25 bps. Year-to-date, we've generated $145.3 million of available free cash flow, including the reduction in restricted cash and collateral. We used $145.6 million for the convertible note repurchase premium and have also paid cash dividends of $18.3 million, bringing our payout ratio to greater than 100% through the first half of the year. Now for a quick look at the third quarter. We expect seaworn thermal volume of 3.0 million tons, including 1.9 million tons of export coal, with a product mix of 1.1 million tons of Newcastle benchmark coal and 800,000 tons of higher ash coal that we sell at about a 10% discount to API 5. We expect costs of $52 to $57 per ton, a nice improvement quarter over quarter. For Seabourn Metallurgical, we expect a volume of 1.9 to 2.1 million tons as Metropolitan has a longwall move and a scheduled lockoutage will reduce sales at Shoal Creek. Costs are expected to improve to $130 to $140 per ton, a $20 improvement compared to the second quarter as Centurion volumes increase. In the PRB, we anticipate shipments of 22 million tons at costs of $12 substantially improving margins and free cash flow from the segment. Other U.S. thermal shipments are expected to increase to 3.7 million tons, an average price of $58.20 with costs at $45 to $49 per ton, in line with full-year expectations. In closing, Peabody exits the quarter with an even stronger financial foundation and tighter capital structure, poised to generate significant free cash flow as Centurion advances to expected production rates. Anticipation for a better second half and strong market fundamentals points to further support for our shareholder return program. With that, I'll turn the call back over to you, Jim.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mark. As we move into the second half of the year, our focus is on execution. Centurion reaching targeted longwall production rates. U.S. Thermal positioned for stronger seasonal demand. and our Seaborn platform well placed amid constructive global markets. With improving operational momentum and a strong financial foundation, we believe our Peabody platform is well positioned to deliver improved results and create long-term value for shareholders. With that operator, we are pleased to open up the call to questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw the question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Nick Giles with B. Reilly Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Yeah, thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Maybe just starting with Centurion, was just hoping for more color. To what extent the longwall's running today? I mean, how much stoppage is this rock faulting causing or how are advance rates ultimately impacted here? Thanks.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Nick. Good morning. Jim here. Yeah, so, you know, first I'll give you a little background on the long wall and where it's at and then how it's running today. So, you know, the issue that we had that we talked about was the shields being out of alignment or sometimes it's called racking. And we have that issue behind us now. The long wall, the shields are straight and they're square to the face. And so it's in good shape. and, you know, it took a little longer than we thought it was going to be to address this issue. And again, just to give you maybe a little explanation what it is, a picture of what it is, is the shields themselves, you could look at it as like a row of dominoes and then some of those dominoes got knocked over on top of each other, not all of them, but some of them. But each one of those dominoes weighs 53 tons. And so to straighten them out and do it safely, which is a hard thing to do with the weight of those shields underground, It took a little bit longer than we thought into the month of June. So now that's done, a long wall square, and it's running. So we're running right now when it's running back and forth this year, and at times we have stoppages to address the faulting that we have. Now to address the faulting, we've taken four different actions to address the faulting ahead of us. So we either do underground inseam drilling ahead of the fault and inserting grout that way. We have drilling from the surface further away from the longwall face addressing the faulting that way. And then right at the face, if it's needed, there's a localized faulting at the face. We can do some geoflexing right at the face or some rock silt right above the shield. So the first two things that we do for the faulting are more in advance of the longwall than the other two with the Geoflex, and Roxo are sort of like active mining zone with the longwall. So with that, over the last two weeks, we've really picked up the pace on the longwall. We have some days where we've run seven, eight shears a day, and some days where we're running three or four shears a day because we have that faulting to address. And that's where that consistency is that we're looking for to go forward. is running at a steadier rate. And as we keep advancing through this faulted zone and running at a steady rate, it really solves itself. The quicker you can move through it, the more shears per day that you can get done. And so with that, looking at the faulting, the rate that we're going forward, having a stop occasionally to address the faults in front of us, that's where we've given that projection that five to 700,000 tons for the third quarter because there is some variability not only on the speed or the number of shares per day, Nick, but also on the yield because when we get in the faulting area, the yield goes down, we get more rock. So there's variability in both of those. And so we take that all into account. And that's how we came up with that projection. But again, the longwall phase has been in the best shape that it's been in since we started the mine. And we're out of the commissioning phase and we're in the production phase now.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Jim, I really appreciate all that color. Apologies for my ignorance, but just to clarify, so the racking issue, was that ultimately caused by the faulting that you're running into? And then my second question was just, I think you answered it already, but how much visibility do you have, you know, quarters down the line that you won't run into this faulting zone again? Thanks.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so your first question is, it was a The continuation of the long commissioning, the slow startup process, we started out with the electrical issues that were, as we started the long wall up, we had a series of electrical issues that had to shut down. It took us a while to address that. Then the long wall started running. We ran into a series of mechanical issues with belts and conveyors and transfer points. All of that delay in the startup and the long wall stopping and starting again It's not good, especially in a new longwall mine and a new panel like we were. That led to making the situation degrade where the faulting is. If we would have just started up and ran and not had the delays at the startup and had the normal advance rate, we wouldn't have had the conditions leading to needing the shield realignment. Now going forward, the conditions that we have are really specific to this panel and how we're looking at it. We have about 300 meters left in front of us of this faulted area and it's in a very specific area between our shield number 20 to shield number 50. So we can see an end of sight to this faulting. It'll be during the third quarter. and so we don't expect this in the fourth quarter we have you know good geologic good control and we'll be out of this come the fourth quarter now because of that variability nick uh in in in advance rates and yield because of the faulting is why we've said that we will also give out updates in august and september of how we're doing right uh to make it more accurate to tighten those ranges up as we go forward is that got it well thank you

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Yeah, great. No, I just want to say thanks again for all the background. I'll turn it over.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Thanks, Nick. Our next question comes from Matthew Key with Texas Capital Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Key
Analyst, Texas Capital Securities

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I had a question just kind of on PRB volume guidance. Based on where coal volume was in the first half of 26 and the guidance requeue, It seems to achieve the midpoint of that range. It would imply a pretty impressive 4Q shipping quarter. Just given where natural gas prices are trading, is it safer to assume the lower end of that guidance, or are you pretty confident kind of going into that 4Q will be a strong quarter?

speaker
Malcolm Roberts
Chief Commercial Officer

Yeah, good morning, Matthew. Malcolm here. Look, as I said in my remarks, The second half of the year and what we're looking at here doesn't seem that different to prior years. Obviously gas price is a little lower, but if you look at the grid at the moment, coal has been called upon very heavily. So what we're looking to do in the second half of the year probably is not much different if you overlaid the pattern from 23 through 25. and probably quite rightly, you should be assuming the midpoint of the guidance range that you spoke to. That would be my response to that question.

speaker
Matthew Key
Analyst, Texas Capital Securities

Got it. No, that's helpful. I was wondering, you mentioned this a little bit in the prepared remarks, but I just wanted to talk about kind of capital allocation plans over the coming quarters. Do you think buybacks make sense kind of on the back of this pullback? Or what are the major priorities for you in the second half of 26?

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Matt, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, continue to execute against our existing shareholder return program payout over 100% year to date. We'll look to generate some substantial free cash flow in the second half of the year as Centurion achieves its targeted production rates. And we'll look to continue to execute against that show the return program. We'll look at outright share repurchases. We'll also look at the remaining stuff with the convertible notes, depending on where they trade. We were able to buy those at $241 million back at a very small premium, less than four points, I believe. and was pretty opportunistic in the sense that they had traded down significantly. So I think going forward, we'll execute against the program and we'll look at both of those avenues.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Got it. Well, I appreciate the time and best of luck. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Katja Jancic
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just quickly back to Centurion. Jim, you mentioned that you're going to provide updates in August and September. Can you maybe talk about when specifically we should be expecting those updates?

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, in August, for certain, we have a site tour out at Centurion on August 11th. There will be an update given at that site tour, which, again, of course, would be which would be filed and made public information, which, by the way, we still have six spots left open on that site tour of Centurion. We've had a very good response. So a little bit of you gave me a chance to push that out there. So at that site tour, we'll give an update. And then we have some investor days. I'm not sure the specific dates off the top of my head in September. And we'll we'll also give updates then.

speaker
Katja Jancic
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

And maybe staying on the site visit, I guess you're going to take investors and analysts to actually see the long wall?

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It's a great tour. The site will show the long wall. We'll show the surface facilities. You'll see every piece of the mine, operating piece of the mine that we have there.

speaker
Katja Jancic
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

And maybe shifting gears to the $350 million of restricted cash that was unlocked, is that fully available right now or are there any restrictions to using that?

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

Katya, the $350 million of collateral that was returned, it was really reclassed from restricted cash and collateral. So to your question, it is fully available. It's included in our cash balances at June 30.

speaker
Katja Jancic
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Look forward to seeing you at the Centurion visit, Katya.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nathan Martin
Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Sticking with the restricted cash piece, Mark, question for you. I mean, are there any more opportunities to unlock restricted cash, whether that be surely related or otherwise? Looks like there's still about $460 million or so left there on the balance sheet. Thanks.

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Nate, we've pretty much done all the work we can there. We reduced the collateral significantly, went to an asset-backed facility in Australia, and then reduced the collateral to about 40% in the U.S. So I'm not looking for any more step changes there. I think we should probably look at this as kind of a permanent fix. Okay.

speaker
Nathan Martin
Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Perfect. Helpful, Mark. And then going back to Centurion, Have you guys noticed anything during the ramp-up stage now heading into the production stage at Centurion that makes you feel like you can't operate the mine at a cost per ton within your prior expectation? Jim, you talked about this a little bit in your comments. We're just hoping to get a little bit more detail. Thanks.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

No, Nate. I'd say when we have been running well without an issue, I'd say it's the opposite. The rate at the sheer Ken Transit is as good or better than we thought it would be. So, you know, I'll say we have some optimism that once we get to steady state running of the mine that we will be at that cost structure or possibly better. It's just getting from this commissioning phase now into the production and getting to steady state production to actually, you know, to see the results of that. But when we are running well, we run very well.

speaker
Nathan Martin
Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Very helpful, Jim. Appreciate that. And maybe just kind of one higher level market question for Malcolm. Malcolm, maybe just get your thoughts on how you believe El Nino conditions or Super El Nino could impact Peabody in the broader coal markets. Thanks.

speaker
Malcolm Roberts
Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks for the question, Nate. I'll probably bifurcate the answer here for Seabourn and then U.S. Domestic. Talking about Seabourn, the biggest thing is drought. particularly in Asia and China. So we've seen very strong coal burn in China. There's a lot of noise around how much coal China actually is consuming but they're consuming a hell of a lot of coal and production at the moment isn't keeping up domestic production. So the main thing we've seen here with this weather pattern is that hydro production from the from the Great River system in China is down. So that's having an influence. And then we're looking to Europe and we're looking at a very warm summer in Europe and we're seeing even increased coal generation in countries such as Germany. and then pretty much across North Asia. So you're talking Taiwan, Korea and Japan. We're also seeing strong coal burn as air conditioners are being turned on and we expect them to stay on for some time. And then in the US here and enjoying the warmth and looking at the grid pretty much across MISO, and the like. We're seeing very strong coal loads and expect that to continue. So a good hot summer is really going to contribute to coal burn in the US and that's why I reiterated that I think the midpoint for PRB guidance is where people should be looking at it. Hopefully that gives you some colour, mate. Thanks for the question.

speaker
Nathan Martin
Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Yeah, it does, Malcolm. Appreciate it. I'll pass it on there. Appreciate the time, everyone. Best of luck in the second half.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Thanks, Nate.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question comes from George Eadie with UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
George Eadie
Analyst, UBS Investment Bank

Hey, Dean. Thanks for the call today. Perhaps for Jim, the 4.7 million tons last month average target and 105 cash costs, is that number still stale? I guess more on the cost front. You call that in this update supply and material pressures. How confident are you in this estimate still? or do you think it's still achievable when the tons come there? And maybe just a reminder as well with Centurion, there's five panels in the south before you go north. So given this delay, is it still 2029 when you get to the north?

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Yeah. Hi, George. Yeah.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

So, yeah, we still feel, you know, there's a couple of things you asked about there. The 4.7 million tons when we get to the steady state production, yes, we still feel that's a good number. And 105 was a $24 number, so it does need to be escalated. And again, when we get to, you know, the steady state production, we assume a normalization, you know, not that diesel prices are that big an impact there. With that, some of those things that we think are not standard impacts on the cost of supplies, yeah, we still feel good about both those numbers once we get to our steady state production. and, you know, the delays you're talking about here are not significant over the, you know, the four or five years that we have in the south here. So, yeah, to the extent that we're not going to mine the initial tons that we thought this year, that does tack on some time until we transfer to the northern reserves. Not, I mean, you're looking at months here, though, you're not talking years.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Yep, okay.

speaker
George Eadie
Analyst, UBS Investment Bank

Awesome. And then maybe just one more and... Mark, I guess, like, the buyback, why not go early? Like, it's spot and guidance, the available free cash should get to at least $50 million a quarter. Clearly, like, that's what investors are chasing and wanting here and sort of rereading the tech report. Like, this appears to be the only really known concerning faulting zone. Like, the outlook looks clearly better. Like, why not go early before the stock potentially gets more expensive and buy into this pullback given the balance sheet's in a pretty good state?

speaker
Mark Spurbeck
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, George, we're going to continue to execute against the plan. We wouldn't foreshadow what we're going to do, of course, ahead of market conditions. We like where we're at today. We like how our execution on the converts, you know, really opportunistic and bought those back at $140 million discount to where they had previously traded. We'll continue to take opportunistic looks at this and we'll continue to execute throughout the second half.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Thanks, George.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Reilly Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Great. Yeah, thanks for taking my follow-up. Just wanted to clarify, the 600,000 tons of Centurion output in 3Q, how much of that is CM coal versus Longwall coal? I assume there's a little bit of Longwall coal at the end of the quarter, but wanted to make sure we have that straight.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, there is some CM coal in there. It's probably in the range of 150,000 tons, give or take.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Got it. Okay. And then as we look up to 2027, you know, there was the Longwall move that had been pushed out from the fourth quarter. So should we expect that move to occur in Q1? And what would be the kind of duration of that move?

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we haven't given that specific guidance yet for 27 yet, Nick, and the timing of that longwall move. And we're also working on some ways to shorten the duration of that move based on what we've learned so far with the mine and accelerate it. So that move will occur in 27, but again, we're working on the timing of when that is and also the duration of it, again, because we have some optimism that we can accelerate from what we thought before would be the length of the outage.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Understood, and maybe one more if I could. Just on the rare earths piece, you mentioned a capital light approach, bringing in some partners. Where do those potential partnerships stand? Do you have any that are kind of of a non-binding nature? When should we expect more of an update on that front?

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I don't want to get too far into it because it's some proprietary information because we're in discussions. So when we have something that's solid with some detail behind it to answer the questions you're asking, we'll make those announcements.

speaker
Nick Giles
Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Understood. Okay. Thanks again, guys. Best of luck.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

speaker
Jim Grech
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I'd like to remind everybody again that the August 11th Tour at Centurion. There are some spots open and maybe some of these questions that will be asked today we should have more detail on. And if you're interested in going over to Australia or going out to our mine, you can contact our IR group and get on the list to go out there. So with that, thanks to everyone for your time today as well as your longstanding support. And we look forward to keeping you apprised of our progress at the investor events as the quarter proceeds.

speaker
Peabody Investor Relations
Investor Relations

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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