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7/30/2026
Good morning and welcome to Camping World Holdings conference call to discuss financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised that this call is being recorded and the reproduction of this call, in whole or in part, is not permitted without written authorization from the company. Joining on the call today are Matthew Wagner, Chief Executive Officer and President, Tom Kirn, Chief Financial Officer, Lindsey Christen, Chief Administrative and Legal Officer, and Brett Andress, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. I will turn the call over to Ms. Christen to get us started. Ma'am, please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. A press release covering the company's second quarter and the June 30, 2026 financial results was issued yesterday afternoon, and a copy of that press release can be found in the investor relations section on the company's website. Management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These remarks may include statements regarding our business plans and goals, macroeconomic and industry trends, customer trends, inventory strategy, Future Growth of Our Operations, Capital Allocation, Future Financial Results and Positions, Future SG&A Savings, and Operating Efficiencies. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these statements as a result of various importance factors, including those discussed in the risk factors section in our Form 10-K, on our Form 10-Q, and other reports on file with the FCC. Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. Please also note that we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per share diluted, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial statements are included in our earnings release and on our website. All comparisons of our 2026 second quarter results are made against the 2025 second quarter results unless otherwise noted. I'll now turn the call over to Matt.
Thank you, Lindsey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 earnings call. Let me start with what this team delivered. In the weakest new RV retail environment in over 15 years, We executed on the priorities we set for this year, growing new and used unit share, accelerating good SAM, and driving SG&A efficiency. We gained new unit share through May on top of last year's record, grew same-store used units over 5%, improved F&I productivity, expanded good SAM services and plans margins, generated significant operating cash flow, materially reduced inventory and floor plan borrowings, and reduced our SG&A by over $26 million. Those are the building blocks of a stronger company, and I am proud of the way our team is executing. I'll be equally direct about the results. This was not the quarter we expected back in April. The new RV sales market weakened during the peak selling season, and we made the decision to move through aged and prior multi-year inventories Thank you for joining us. and used sales create opportunities across F&I, Good Sam and Service. Our same store used vehicle unit sales grew over 5% in the quarter, representing share gains through the May stat survey's reporting information. For the full year, we continue to expect the used RV market to track within the 715,000 to 750,000 unit range. On the new side, According to preliminary SSI data, new vehicle retail registrations declined 16% through May, and it is our expectation that these trend lines persisted into June and July, with July potentially seeing more acute pressure. We recognize a correlation in the second quarter between geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new unit sales. We believe as the conflict resolves, this will result in the stabilization of new sales trends. But I do not want these headlines surrounding the new industry to obscure the work our team accomplished. We gained new unit market share through May, noteworthy because May of last year marked the highest unit share in our company's history, and we exceeded a 29% share of all new RVs sold in the U.S. We did this while growing our new vehicle average sales price by 13% in the quarter, driven by targeted share gains in the fifth-wheel and motorized segments. Given what we are seeing in the market, we now expect the industry to track in the 290,000 to 310,000 unit range for the full year as geopolitical tensions, gas prices, affordability, consumer confidence, and higher rates remain real constraints on new demand. This compares to our previous range of 325,000 to 350,000 units. We believe our current inventory levels are appropriate for the current pace of demand, but we expect competitor dealers to remain focused on cleansing aged inventory for the next several months. We believe we are now in our best current model year new inventory position since 2020. Our prior model year exposure of new RVs is nearing 1%, down from over 6% a year ago. and our cohort of new vehicles aged over 365 days has been cut by over 60% compared to the same time last year. At quarter end, the total number of new vehicles on our lot is down roughly 17% year over year, while dollars are down about 5%, reflecting the richer mix of inventory we are carrying as the industry continues to struggle with the travel trailer demand. Turning to our used inventory, the story is very similar. Compared to where we ended 2025, used inventory units are down 18%, but the more substantial progress has been made on aging. In July, the average age of our used inventory is down over 30% compared to the end of the first quarter, and the percent of used inventory that has aged over 180 days, which is the core internal KPI for us, is down almost 50%. We head into the back half of this year with a leaner, fresher, used book. Total RV and outdoor retail inventory dollars were down nearly 10% year over year, and floor plan notes were down approximately $280 million from year end. We are starting to see this progress on inventory optimization pay off. July to date margins have improved sequentially from the second quarter, despite the softer industry demand we are seeing. As it relates to our SG&A, we have identified initiatives that we expect will deliver approximately $100 million of incremental annualized savings. This is a broad operating efficiency program built around 20 specific initiatives. We are retiring legacy software, replacing third-party systems with purpose-built technology, renegotiating agreements, and simplifying back-office processes. Last quarter, we had spoken about the in-house CRM we developed for the Good Sam extended service business. Over the last four months, we developed and deployed another larger in-house enterprise-grade RV sales CRM. We currently have it in production in five locations, and the early results indicate improvements in sales volume, closing ratios, employee experience, and customer satisfaction. Once we fully roll out this product, we anticipate eliminating in excess of $20 million of annualized costs. Our objective in all these initiatives is to create a simpler, faster, and more scalable operating model with better tools for our team and a more consistent experience for our customers. When we last spoke in April, We had early indications that new RV industry sales had the potential to track towards the low end of the 325,000 unit range. At the time, we were seeing improvement in total new and used RV sales through April, and we had sufficient visibility on near-term cost actions to reiterate our guidance range. However, the new RV market weakened during May and June, and industry volume trends have remained soft July month to date, as the re-escalation of the conflict overseas began to weigh on demand. We are resetting our adjusted EBITDA outlook to $230 million to $270 million, reflective of the trends we see today in what has proven to be an exceptionally volatile market. We are focusing on the variables we have more control over, leaner inventory, structural cost actions, used growth, and stronger good SAM and service executions. We are not waiting on affordability or consumer confidence to stabilize. We are focusing on building a better business with better operating leverage at the end of the cycle. Now, we will turn the call over to Tom.
Thanks, Matt. For the second quarter, we recorded total revenue of $1.9 billion, down 2.1% year over year. New vehicle revenue was $869 million, down 5%, on new unit sales, down 16.4%. Used vehicle revenue was $580 million, up 1.4% on 5% higher unit sales. As Matt described, we deliberately moved through age and prior model year inventory in the quarter, and that shows up in our reported vehicle margins. New vehicle growth margin was 10.9% compared to 13.8% a year ago. Used vehicle growth margin was 16.5%, We expect these margins to look better sequentially in the second half of the year, supported by the early signs of margin progression we've seen thus far in July. Within Good Sam, we completed our ERP overall in the second quarter, on the timeline we laid out last quarter, enabling the team to chase B2B opportunities with our extensive platform. Good Sam Services and Plans Growth Margin expanded to 61.8% from 59.5% a year ago, and we remain confident in the ability of Good Sam to be a long-term growth driver for the company with additional top-line opportunities ahead. We reduced total SG&A by 26.6 million, or 6.1%, year-over-year, continuing the cost discipline we discussed on our last call. SG&A as a percentage of gross profit was approximately 76.3 million, up from 73.9 million a year ago, with the increase almost entirely a function of gross margin compression. Let me take a moment on the incremental $100 million of expected structural SG&A and operating efficiencies. Three points on the timing of these savings. First, $50 million of that run rate savings are expected to be executed by the end of 2026. with the balance by early 2028. Second, our revised 2026 guidance includes roughly $15 million of benefit in the year, mostly in the fourth quarter. Third, that means we expect about 35 million of those savings to carry into 2027. That carryover is one of two identifiable tailwinds into 2027 that we expect to total roughly $70 million. The second is the lapping of the roughly $35 million of inventory clearing impact from the first half of this year. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $224 million of cash, $185 million of unencumbered real estate and total outstanding long-term debt of $1.4 billion. Even against significant gross margin pressure this quarter, Our capital deployment framework continues to prioritize strengthening the balance sheet while retaining working capital within this business and reducing our net debt leverage. With that, I'll turn it back to Matt.
Thanks, Tom. I'll close with this. It was a challenging quarter, but this team grew share to record levels, expanded good spam, and took $26.6 million of costs out with a goal of $100 million more coming. We're building a better business and I'm optimistic for what this team will accomplish in the quarters ahead. We'll now turn the call over to Q&A.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you would like to withdraw from the polling process, please press star then the number two. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure to lift your handset before pressing any case. Your first question comes from the line of James Hardiman from Seating Group. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. This is Sean now for James. I'm just wondering if you can maybe bridge the prior adjusted EBITDA outlook range to the revised range. Beyond the lower industry unit outlook, what are kind of the key puts and takes from a on new and used ASPs and margins perspective.
Really, starting with your last topic first, from an ASP perspective, ASPs actually held in relatively well. Our used average sale price came in a little bit lower than our expectations, maybe to the tune of about $1,500, give or take. New average sale price, though, actually rebounded quite well year over year and rebounded even compared to a consensus, I believe, even built into your model, Sean. But when we take a step back and look at the miss, I mean, this is really just a new unit volume miss and new margin miss and used margin miss. They came in a little bit under expectations. And largely speaking, we realized the pain of those realizations of those misses in May and June. We ended April in a position where we felt pretty good about the current progress we were making. In April, used same-store sales were up high single digits. New same-store sales were down mid-single digits. We have started to see a stabilization of our margin profile. But as we balanced through May and into June, we started to realize that there was a lot of pressure on new RV sales demand. And we knew that we wanted to continue to work through some of our prior model year new inventory, as well as our aged used inventory. So with that goal in mind, and also when confronted with pricing and promotional pressure from our competitors, that put a little bit more strain and pressure on our margin profile. And our average sale price hung in there, but ultimately, this is a new volume, new margin, and used margin impact.
Okay. I guess following up there, you sort of spoke of sequentially improving vehicle margins. I guess, should we be What should we be modeling for new and used margins for the year? Do you expect it to improve sequentially from 2Q to 3Q and from 3Q to 4Q, or sort of what's the phase in that?
Yeah, I'll give it to you from an annualized basis, given that in Q2, we oftentimes are going to generate in excess of 50% of our annualized earnings for the entirety of a year, and that's just based upon just historical trends that we've seen. While we do believe in the back half of this year that we'll see some benefit by means of all these cost actions that we're taking, so perhaps that 50% could be a little bit less. But I say that in so much as Q2 is such a massive volume period for us, which is going to disproportionately impact the overall annualized EBITDA and margin percentages for the entire year. So when we think about 2026 right now, we're thinking that new margins could land anywhere in the range of 11.5%, 12% for the entirety of 2026. and use margins to land anywhere in the range of 17.5% to a little over 18% for the entirety of 2026. We do believe that there will be a sequential improvement in Q3, but really in Q4 it's always a matter of what's the promotional activity, what are we trying to do to prepare ourselves for next year. So historically speaking in Q4 you do see a little bit of a step down in margin, but even still I'd look at this holistically over the course of all of 2026 to arrive at those conclusions.
Okay, and just one more quick follow-up on the ASP part. To your point, new ASPs have been around sort of that just under 39,000, which I think was your maybe target for the year a quarter or two ago. You were targeting 31.5 for used. Obviously, it's been a little below that, so should we be assuming used ASPs in the back half look similar to the first half, or is there any reason to believe they improved?
I think that there is a high likelihood as we head into the fall and winter time periods that you'll actually see used ASPs come up a little bit. And I say that in so much as historically you'll see those consumers that have a willingness to buy fifth wheels and motorized units, which oftentimes are going to yield a higher ASP, they have a higher likelihood of starting to buy in Q3 and Q4. So for the entirety of 2026, I think used ASPs could land right around that $30,000 range or maybe even a little bit higher potentially. But I think where we landed for the entire quarter, we were at Q2 at about $29,000. That's going to be indicative of the fact that there's a lot of consumers that are buying towables and more inexpensively priced assets. And generally seeing Q3, Q4, you see a bit of a recovery there.
Got it. Thanks a lot. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Alcibello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. First question on the new ASPs. You mentioned, you know, Matt, they were up almost 14% in the quarter. Was that all mixed?
Good morning, Joe. In large part, that was mixed. As we spoke about in the prepared remarks, we're seeing a lot of pressure on the travel trailer segment at large, but just suppose that against the success that we're realizing in the fifth wheel and Class C segments. We're seeing material market share gains within those specific segments in particular. And we believe that the consumer is probably a higher net worth individual that has a willingness to buy in this current marketplace. Whereas a travel trailer consumer, you could argue, just doesn't have a willingness to engage in a bigger ticket purchase right now where they're going to have a monthly payment that they're anchoring to for a longer term. So we were very effective at replenishing and calling the shot on the Class C and fifth wheel segments. In fact, there was a number of periods where we were up in excess of 15% of each of those respective categories throughout the balance of this year so far. We believe we still have more opportunities through the balance of the year, which would then support the case that new ASPs are probably in the range where they'll end up for the year if not going up a little bit.
Got it. And you also mentioned margins improving here sequentially in the third quarter. What's driving it? Is that your cleaner inventory? Is it less discounting, maybe a combination of the two?
Definitely a combination of the two. I'd actually weigh a little bit more heavily on the former variable in so much as we were very disciplined about cleansing aged assets, especially on the used side in May and June in particular when we realized that demand had slowed down a little bit more than we had anticipated. We wanted to ensure that we were positioning ourselves as well as possible for the second half year Equally as importantly, though, heading into next year. So, yes, we did have that goal in mind, but there was the additional pressure of promotional activity because many other dealers recognized the same. I would argue, based upon our research, that we're in a way healthier position than the broader industry, and we believe that we've taken a lot of pain in the first half of the year to set ourselves up. I can't necessarily say that the broader industry has taken that same approach.
And if I could just squeeze one more in, model year 27 pricing, how are you thinking about that right now?
As of this moment, Joe, we use our own in-house index where we call it our RV price index, modeled very similarly to the producer price index, where we take a basket of goods that we look at every single quarter and we go back 15 years and we try to assess it on a like-for-like basis. That's a long-winded way to say based upon that research, We're seeing right now to end this last quarter that model year 27 compared to 26 is we're up about 1.7%. I have heard certain rumblings that over the next couple of months manufacturers might be put in a position where they have to raise prices slightly again. I would anticipate maximum would be another 1.5% to 2% maybe. And that could be okay. I say that in so much as We're obviously confronted with general inflation, and as long as these price increases consistently are below inflation, I believe that continues to answer that question of can we create a more affordable asset for these consumers to engage in this lifestyle.
Great. Thank you.
Next question comes from the line of Tristan Thomas-Martin from VMO Capital Market. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Morning. Okay, I jumped. There's been a lot of things, so I apologize if any of this is touched on. But I know you called out gain new unit share through May. And I kind of understand the industry dynamics in June and July. But, like, what changed with your performance relative to the industry?
Well, I think in some respects, we were very aggressive in our pursuit to cleanse ourselves of aged assets. So we were very promotional to ensure that we were removing ourselves or getting rid of aged model year units, model year 25s. And just as well, we picked up actually most of our share when you look at it on an individualized segment basis within the fifth wheel and class B segments. We had introduced over the course of this last year a number of new products and floor plans within each of those respective categories. And I can tell you that our campsite reserve fifth wheel, for example, has quickly amassed market share where that brand now sits as the seventh most popular brand in North America. And that brand didn't even exist up until a year and a half ago. This last year, we debuted a whole new fifth wheel line that's complete with six different floor plans. And we've been up materially with that one brand in particular. If we turn to our Class C segment, we've worked very effectively with Thor Industries to reimagine a number of different products within our Class C segment. And we're really just satisfying that consumer with a very affordable asset, but that is complete with a number of features to entice them to actually engage with our business.
Okay, but I mean, just kind of trying to read between the lines. Is there a world where you guys are maybe a little bit more promotional than some of your peers, so you maybe pulled forward a little demand, or am I reading too much into that?
It's possible. Obviously, our new margin profile isn't exactly where we wanted it to be. We ended Q2 with about just shy of an 11% consolidated margin on the new side. But just as well, we do a lot of research to ensure that we're at least market competitive on prices. So I don't know that we were that much more promotional compared to our competitors, and I think it's just the byproducts, the nature of what consumers can afford, and ensuring that we're hitting our sales goals and at the same time retaining as much margin in our business as we can.
Yeah, I don't think you touched on kind of how maybe early thoughts on 27 and also just kind of a general high-level question. I mean, besides macro rates, is there anything else you think the industry needs to do to really spur demand?
We have not provided any commentary on 2027, and we're not in a position to start to weigh in on 2027 yet. We still have a lot of this year to go, but I can tell you that our focus right now in the short term is still on affordability, creating more innovative and interesting products to consider having more consumers come into this lifestyle and ensure that we're continuing to grow the general TAM that exists within this industry. We haven't seen as much growth as we'd like to see, and We've seen new RV sales and the general environment continue to decline, going on almost six years now, once we last, 2026. So, for us, this is just, what can we do to grow this industry?
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Arzat Gupta from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Great, thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to, like, quickly clarify the margin cadence for the second half. I think I heard that, you know, you would expect the fourth quarter to step down from the third quarter seasonally. So, in order to, like, hit the 11.5% to 12% on new and 17.5% to 18% on used, it would imply a pretty meaningful pickup in free queue and then a slight decline in full queue. Am I understanding that cadence correctly?
Q4, historically, we have seen some decline in margins. I think last year we did have some significant promotional activity in Q4. You saw those margins dip pretty aggressively, particularly on the used side. I don't know that we're projecting that level of dip Q3 to Q4. I would expect it to be a little bit more even Q3 to Q4 this year, given what we've done in Q2 on the inventory side. Understood, that's helpful.
And then, you know, the breakup of the incremental 100 million, could you give us a little bit of, a little more color on just the areas from where those costs are coming out, you know, technology, procurement, centralization, like what's, which areas are those restructuring actions being taken?
Those are really the areas. It is a combination. Like Matt gave the example of a sales CRM. That's the second CRM that we've launched this year. So I think you'll continue to see us make enhancements on the technology side. And that not only saves on the actual staff fees, but also on the consulting fees and some of the other – and the licensing fees and some of the ongoing cost and friction that that creates within the business. And it also enables us to centralize more processes. So it does create opportunities for more labor efficiency down the road. The third bucket is that procurement and supply chain piece where we're continuing to dive into certain agreements as they come up for renewal or, frankly, as we get through some of these technology initiatives where it opens up more opportunities for us to look at third-party contracts and third-party arrangements in a different light and look at different alternatives. So I think The teams across the board are being very creative in how they're thinking about the future of this business and where they want to remove friction with the employee base as well as with the customer in all of our processes.
Understood. Great. Thanks for the call and good luck.
Your next question comes from the line of Scott's Timber from Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Matt, I thought I heard you say that June and July were equally as rough as the quarter, but it sounds like July, I think you used the word a little bit more acute. Maybe talk about that a little bit. It sounds like it got a little bit worse in July, and what are you attributing that to, just the general macro environment?
Morning, Scott, and you are correct. We did see that in our prepared remarks, and we did see a slight step down from June to July. It's still in the range, but we can't help but recognize, as we've conducted our own internal research and external research, that there is definitive corollary that exists between the geopolitical tensions overseas and certain key moments, like, for example, earlier this month in July, that is, Thank you very much. You can see the overnight sales dip, and unfortunately that lended itself to the possibility that there was going to be a little bit lower comp year-over-year compared to June, but it's basically the same. So our hope is that as we're approaching resolutions for all these different tensions, that you'll start to see the stabilization, the new RV marketplace, and that's really where we'll start to yield the operating leverage that we're creating in this business.
Got it. And then on the parts side and the service side, I know there's been this argument or weighing where you use your utilization for used reconditioning or for customer pay work. Maybe just talk about how customer pay is trending, and at some point, do you guys feel like you need to either increase capacity to be able to handle more customer pay work or maybe divert some more utilization towards that?
I'll start with the last. I believe that we have plenty of opportunity to utilize our bays more efficiently and effectively, and we have a number of bays that aren't occupied with technicians right now. So we know that it's one of the most difficult things within any service industry right now to find the right talent, retain that talent, and make sure to constantly train that talent. We put an incredible emphasis on ensuring that we're keeping that pipeline full and retaining technicians in this space. When we think about the utilization levels, though, and that debate between internal, external, yes, it is true that internal still does take up a little over half of actually all of our available hours within the bays. And it is true that our external work has tremendous upside and opportunity. We have seen improvement in external work compared to the trend lines that we were seeing last year and this year. Really, though, we're seeing that because we made a strategic call about a month and a half ago now where we changed our labor rate structure for consumers. And this is a recognition of consumers having to affordably service their assets. So we debuted a rate structure where we offer installation of any one of our components or products for $99 an hour, maintenance for $120 an hour, and for more complicated jobs, especially collision, it's $199 an hour. Previously, our posted labor rate was $199 an hour across the board. What we have seen is that our revenue has actually improved, but because we did drop some of these labor rates, our gross profit has remained flat. So while revenue is going up, gross profit is flat. Where that serves a benefit, though, is if you look at our retail and parts business, we're actually seeing a nice improvement there, which tells us these consumers do want to service their assets. They do want to add these upgrades and features. We just need to make sure that we can affordably enable them to do this. by means of the service work actually being reduced for the Maduro labor rate.
And, Scott, I would add, too, that's something that we changed intra-quarter. So we've seen it come through the numbers in the back part of the quarter, but it definitely did not come through, obviously, in the consolidated results for Q2. Got it.
And if I could just sneak one last one in. Could you give us an update on how your Costco initiative is progressing?
As we shared last time, we paused in April, took a reset of the entire program, wanted to reimagine the entire lead process flow, figure out a more effective marketing strategy. We kicked it back up in May, and we've had a number of different roadshows. We've noticed a correlation. When we have a roadshow at a specific Costco, that region actually sees an uptick in general sales volume. But this is still early days, given that we had to go through that reset period. So we're seeing nice progress, but we're not going to hit the goals that we were originally intending to. That's just the reality of it. We originally were trying to goal-seek at least 3,500 sales this year, if not upwards of 5,000 through the Costco program. I can tell you we're in the hundreds of units sold. We're still seeing a number of leads that we're cultivating, and there still are opportunities. But now that we're beyond the peak selling season, the reality is seasonally you start to see demand fall off in Q3, Q4. So this would really be more of, yes, I think we could pick up some incremental volume demand through Costco through the balance of the year, but this would really be a play for next year.
Your next question comes from the line of Alice Wicklund from Mayor of the Police. Go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to touch on kind of the F&I business and maybe what expectations for that should be in this macro environment. I think you had a good performance here in Q2, but I guess I'm wondering, is there any appreciable difference between the attachment rates, depending on the type of customer that's coming through the door, maybe that more premium one versus that travel trailer customer?
Yeah, not a big difference, even though our mix has shifted significantly. A little bit. I think if you think about the back half of the year, I would think about F&I as a percent, right, that penetration rate, pretty similar to what we saw in the front half. I think as you see used, you know, continue to grow and you see new have some of that relative pressure, that does kind of, you know, shake out to some of the trends that we saw in the first half of the year. So that business continues to remain, you know, obviously very strong for us. We'll continue to be driven largely by volume and attach. But there's really not too much of a difference we're seeing across the cohort within the attached. I'll just say as a percentage, what you do have historically when you do sell more travel trailers, you see a higher percent. But when you start to sell some of these, you know, fifth wheels and larger items, that percent kind of comes down. But I would focus on that dollar number, that F&I per unit, to be a little bit more steady than that percent.
That makes sense. And then on the balance sheet, I apologize if I missed it, but did you share kind of where you expect leverage to end the year and Maybe any thoughts on how that might play out early into 2027?
Yeah, so leverage for the year, I mean, based off of the guidance change, we want to get as decent of advice as we can. This year, our long-term goal, though, still remains to get below three and a half times or below three times. over the course of the coming years, and that's really going to be driven by a lot of these cost initiatives and efficiency initiatives. We want to control our deficit on the leverage side and improve the operating leverage of this business so that we can have a lower floor and have a steadier long-term leverage target for the enterprise.
That's it for me. Thanks. Thanks, Allison.
Next question is from the line of No Was That Skin from KeyBank. Please go ahead. Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess just high-level question, you know, on the kind of 230 to 270 adjusted EBITDA range, what's kind of embedded in the low end and what's embedded in the high end? And just kind of any thoughts on, like, degree of confidence in kind of the 234 there? Thanks.
Morning, Noah. So when we think about the low end and the high end, we obviously have a number of inputs that are designed between that low and high end. The principal ones, though, being how does the industry behave? And we believe on that $230 million range, that would suggest then that the industry new retail activity dipped to about 290,000 new RV sales for the total of 2026. And on the high side, we're anchoring to that 310,000 new unit range. When we think of the used marketplace, that's where I'd also anchor that to, on the low side, 715,000 used unit sales for the entirety of the year, and on the high side to 750,000. So embedded within that is market share implications, where we believe that we'll end up in North America at about 22.5% to 23% total market share in North America, which would also be higher if you just look at the U.S. And then on the used side, we believe that our used market share for the entirety of 2026 will be about 8.8% to 9%. So if you're going to take those anchors, and then we've obviously provided previously our new average sale price, we think it's going to be right around $39,500 to $40,000 for the entirety of the year. Used average sales price hanging in that range is about $30,000. And we previously provided on this call the gross margin range. That really becomes your input then. to suggest where the potential range of outcomes are. And we believe that the industry should settle into that $290,000 to $310,000 range.
Yeah. And Noah, just to put maybe a little bit more context around that as well, if you think about the lower end of that industry assumption, right, that $290,000, you're looking more towards, you know, a trend line or a trend rate that would reflect more of what we're seeing in the industry and in our business in July. and really flowing that completely forward while the higher end would have not a sharp or a meaningful recovery, just a little bit of improvement as industry compares ease slightly. You're up against things like the government shutdown last year. That would kind of reflect more of the industry outlook contextually into the higher end.
Thanks. And then maybe just kind of any thoughts around inventory positioning and how you're kind of planning The back half there. You know, not to pry on kind of next year's strategy, but just any thoughts on the back half from an inventory perspective. Thanks.
No, we went through a lot of pain to ensure that we rid ourselves of aged model year units as well as aged used units, but we're taking a very conservative approach to replenishment here heading into the balance of the year. If we look at channel inventory across the board, We believe that the broader industry still has a little bit too much inventory based upon current demand trends. And that's even if we end up on new RV sales of 310,000 units in the entire industry. So we think the industry has a little bit more work to go to cleanse itself and channel clear it. But for us, we're being very thoughtful about replenishment of those products that we know we're doing well with. And we want to ensure that we maintain the market share that we've worked very hard to gain over the last few years.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Jim Charger from Manass Crespin Hart and Company. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You talked about the importance of the used business going forward. You know, how has the pullback in used inventory, how is that impacting your expectation for use for this year? And then what's a reasonable expectation that we can think about? The used business can grow for the next few years. Thanks.
We still believe that the used sales for this year should be positive year over year from 25 to 26. But we were very conservative in terms of replenishment of certain used categories. We are down on our used inventory quite a bit year over year. We also have leaned a little bit more heavily into consignment business. which is ensuring that we're at least replenishing certain components of our business and it doesn't show up in our balance sheet. So we are setting ourselves up to yield that opportunity. But we have gotten a lot more thoughtful and better in terms of the AI enablement that we have to identify certain market demands. And this has just been a recent revelation over the last couple of months to understand what our market data supply are by price point, by segments, down to models, down to different vintage model years. So that's helping to inform exactly where we should perhaps maybe either raise the value to procure an asset or start to decrease the value to ensure that we don't procure too many of that specific asset. But the used business is obviously very difficult in terms of procuring and setting up all the processes to cultivate that relationship with the customer and then transact. So we believe that we're well-positioned. Just as well, you are hitting home on something we discussed internally. We want to make sure that we're not out of the right floor plans and the right products in all these markets nationwide.
Okay. And then as far as kind of future, you know, the next two or three years, you know, how are you thinking about the potential for used unit growth?
You know, we're not looking out that far, but sufficient to say we believe that the used market is very stable, impervious to any sort of the issues that we're seeing on the new side of the business in terms of affordability. And this is a long-term strategy for us. We believe we can continue to compound these gains that we've seen. As I stated earlier, we're sitting at about just shy of 9% market share of the used business. That number over the next few years should grow to 12% plus. So in consolidation, we still maintain that new and used market share combined. We have 15% as our short-term target, and over a longer term, over the next five years, we believe 20% is still a very reasonable goal that we had previously stated.
That's helpful. Thank you, and best of luck.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Roll from Luke Capital. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Given the strength in used RVs, could you talk about the used versus new pricing spread you saw during the quarter and how that could potentially evolve throughout the back half of the year given prices for new RVs could potentially be increasing?
You are zeroing in on a factor that is normally indicative of the health of the balance and spread between new and used and what is going to result in the actual outcome. So this becomes like a causation factor. So when you have a healthy spread between new and used true inventory costs or actual cost value in excess of 20% to 30%, that's generally a healthy balance for both portfolios. So when we're anchoring to our average sale price for the balance of this year settling into about $40,000 on new assets, and about $30,000 on used assets. This speaks to the historical norm that exists of a near 30 plus percent split between new and used average sale price. There was a time this time last year we saw our new average sale price dip considerably and that spread between used and new started to be negatively impacted. That's where we didn't actually see that healthy gain opportunity on both sides. We like this spread as it sits today. Obviously there's different dynamics that exist of like Are there certain price points or segments we're selling more of on used versus new where you could see these numbers flex up and down a little bit? But this is a really nice environment when we look back over the course of history.
Okay, great. And is that impacting your promotional activity on the new side at all to maintain that healthy pricing spread?
No, no. That was a goal sheet that we had over a longer term. That's where you look at different segments, Brandon. You've been around the industry for a while. There's so much noise when you look at travel trailers and fifth wheels to motorize and how you need to right-size certain segments within the Class B segment where you just need to make sure that you are getting rid of those assets that could represent risk in the future. And we know on the new side, anything that's over a year old, you can expect that you're going to feel a lot of margin pressure. And on the use side, any asset that's over 180 days, you're going to expect to give up that margin that you had embedded when you had procured that asset. So we're just being thoughtful about looking at every single asset on an individualized journey basis, where every single asset has an individualized story, remarketing plan.
Great. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press tar followed by the number one on your touchtone phone. and if you are using a speakerphone, please make sure to lift your handset before pressing any case. Your next question comes from the line of Brett Jordan from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. This is Patrick Buckley on for Brett. Thanks for taking our questions. On the service side of things, how have labor pay rates trended recently? You know, I think about margins moving forward there. Where does the math end up between the new lower rates you guys had mentioned that you're charging and any labor inflation that you're seeing?
So actually, our effective labor rate, remarkably, is settling into the exact averages that we were seeing previously. So we're settling into that effective labor rate in that range of about $165 an hour, which The reason why our posted labor rate previously was $199 an hour. We've now introduced a tiered labor rate structure. But the assumption in the former example, the $199 labor rate across the board, we would discount, of course, to ensure that we were just looking at a job holistically. And whatever we could yield in terms of that labor compensation, we would. But ultimately, consumers can only afford so much. So we've recognized the tiered labor rate structure. We're seeing revenue go up, gross profit flat, effective labor rate is flat. We are seeing more customers come through the door and actually attach more retail parts and accessories to install on their assets.
Got it. That's helpful. As you look at recent trends across the new RV market, how are metrics like foot and web traffic holding up? Are there signs of a more healthy underlying demand there, but conversion ends up being the issue when they see where the monthly payments end up?
We are seeing pretty consistent trends throughout the balance of this year that are really just a continuation of the end of last year, where web traffic has been consistently slightly down, pretty persistently throughout last year, end of last year into this year. As such, lead volume slightly down. As such, even walk-ins and showroom visits are somewhat down. However, we are seeing an improvement in showroom close rates. So that suggests that customers come in the door, They have a willingness, if they're there, to actually close on the deal. Really, the question is, how can we just ensure that the everyman can actually engage in this lifestyle again? This industry is built off that middle-class American that wants to just buy something affordable, wants to actually engage in a lifestyle, and we're seeing that opportunity manifest itself within the used business, where the used business in the industry is healthy. It's been flat to up every period this entire year. So we know that the consumer... Tom Hamil, William Colling, Matthew Wagner and we'll continue to get creative with manufacturers to draw down the cost of these assets and continue to maintain a focus on used assets.
Great. That's all from us. Thanks, guys.
Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Matthew Wagner for closing comments. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you, everyone, for the time this morning. This was a challenging quarter, but I'm very proud of how the team continues to execute.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.
