Deere & Company

Good morning and welcome to the Deere and Company fourth quarter earnings conference call. Your lines have been placed on listen only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations. And thank you, sir. You may begin.

Hello. Welcome and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are John May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Josh Jepson, Chief Financial Officer, Corey Reed, President, Worldwide Agriculture and Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag, Americas and Australia, and Josh Rollator, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth quarter earnings, then spend time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2025. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com forward slash earnings. First, a reminder. This call is broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks on all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, changes in circumstances, and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent form 8K, risk factors in the annual form 10K, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeer.com forward slash earnings under quarterly earnings and events. I will now turn the call over to Josh Rollator.

Good morning, and an early happy holidays to everyone joining us today. John Deere finished the year with a better than expected fourth quarter. That included 13.1% margins for equipment operations. Full year operating margins came in at 18.2%, reflecting solid, proactive execution throughout our organizations. amidst a challenging and rapidly changing market environment. Our ability to generate just over $6.9 billion in operating cash flow from equipment operations at shipment volumes below mid-cycle levels is indicative of the structural improvements we've made, enabling continued reinvestment in the business and significant cash return to shareholders. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued contraction of ag markets globally to result in ag and turf equipment demand at or below trough levels. Additionally, construction and forestry market demand is expected to be down as healthy end markets are offset by continued uncertainty in equipment purchases. Slide three begins with results for fiscal year 2024. Net sales and revenues were down 16% to $51.7 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were down 19% to $44.8 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company was $7.1 billion, or $25.62 per diluted share. Next, fourth quarter results are on slide four. Net sales and revenues were down 28% to $11.1 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were down 33% to $9.3 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company decreased to $1.2 billion, or $4.55 per diluted share. Diving into our individual business segments on slide five, we'll review our fourth quarter results, starting with our production and precision ag business. Net sales of 4.305 billion were down 38% compared to the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes. Price realization in the quarter was flat, in line with expectations. Currency translation was negative by about one point. Operating profit was $657 million. resulting in a 15.3% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease in operating profit was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and sales mix, which was partially offset by lower production costs. As a reminder, we anticipated tougher year-over-year comps for PPA in the fourth quarter due to extended factory shutdown days associated with planned underproduction at several facilities. Turning to small ag and turf on slide six. Net sales were down 25%, totaling 2.306 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, although this was partially offset by price realization. Price realization in the quarter was positive by approximately two and a half points. Currency was also positive by approximately half a point. For the quarter, operating profit declined year over year to 234 million, resulting in a 10.1% operating margin. The decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and mix, along with special non-recurring items. These items were partially offset by price realization and lower warranty expenses. Slide 7 details our fiscal year 2025 ag and turf industry outlook. We expect industry sales of large ag equipment in the U.S. and Canada to decline approximately 30% as demand further moderates amid weak farm fundamentals, high interest rates, elevated used inventory levels, and short-term farmer liquidity concerns heading into next year's growing season. For small ag and turf in the U.S. and Canada, industry demand is estimated to be down around 10%. The dairy and livestock segment continues another year of strong profitability as elevated protein and hay prices are further enhanced by low input feed costs. This is offset by restrained demand in the turf and compact utility tractor markets as single-family home sales and home improvement spending remain stagnant amid high interest rates. In Europe, the industry is projected to be down between 5 and 10 percent. Farm fundamentals in the region continue to deteriorate. Lingering headwinds include depressed yields from unfavorable weather, reduced regional commodity prices, and persistently elevated input costs. Confluence of these issues coupled with high interest rates are expected to keep industry equipment demand at low levels throughout 2025. Within South America, we anticipate industry sales of tractors and combines to be roughly flat as headwinds from 2024 stabilize but persist. Looking forward to 2025, while crop prices are expected to decline, input costs are also decreasing with yields improving as drought concerns abate. Coupled with continued soybean acreage expansion, overall sentiment has improved, although this has yet to translate into additional equipment demand. Additionally, recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian REI offers further profitability tailwinds to farmers as commodity prices are typically quoted in dollars while many input costs are denominated in REI. Across the rest of South America, strong yields are offset by low commodity prices and elevated interest rates. Argentina, however, is experiencing some favorable tailwinds as government actions begin to stabilize the currency amid a recovery in the ag industry. Finally, industry sales in Asia are projected to be down slightly as foundational technology adoption and improving ag fundamentals in India provide moderate demand tailwinds. Moving to our segment forecasts on slide eight, we anticipate Production and precision ag net sales to be down approximately 15% in fiscal year 2025. The forecast assumes roughly one point of positive price realization and half a point of negative currency translation. Segment operating margin forecast for the full fiscal year is between 17 and 18%, reflecting strong execution amid tough geographic and product mix headwinds. Slide nine provides our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. We expect fiscal year 25 net sales to be down around 10%. This includes about half a point of positive price realization as well as half a point of positive currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 13 and 14%. Shifting now to construction and forestry on slide 10. Net sales for the quarter were down 29% year over year to 2.664 billion due to lower shipment volumes. Both price realization and currency translation were slightly positive in the quarter by less than half a point. Operating profit decreased to 328 million, resulting in a 12.3% operating margin. Lower shipment volumes and sales mix were partially offset by lower production costs and proceeds from special non-recurring items. Slide 11 outlines our 2025 construction and forestry industry outlook. Industry sales for earth moving equipment in the U.S. and Canada are expected to be down around 10%, while compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada is expected to be down 5%. Fixed end markets in 2025 are expected to temper equipment demand across both construction and compact construction equipment. Modest growth in single-family housing starts and U.S. government infrastructure spending will be more than offset by further slowdowns in multifamily housing developments, still softening non-residential building investments and muted capex spending in oil and gas. Additional headwinds from historically low levels of earth moving rental reef leading and somewhat elevated used inventories will further pressure equipment sales as market uncertainty persists into the start of fiscal 2025. Global forestry markets are expected to be flat to down 5% as challenged global markets stabilize at low demand levels in 2025. Global road building markets are forecasted to be roughly flat as a modest recovery in Europe compensates for modest slowdowns in other geographies. Continuing with our CNF segment outlook on slide 12, 2025 net sales are forecasted to be down around 10 and 15 percent. Our net sales guidance for the year includes about one point of positive price realization and flat currency translation. The segment's operating margin is projected to be between 11 and a half and 12 and a half percent. Switching to our financial services operations on slide 13. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere and Company was 173 million for the fourth quarter. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses partially offset by income earned on a higher average portfolio balance, a reduction in derivative valuation adjustments, and lower SANG expenses. Results were also negatively impacted by the increased valuation allowance on assets held for sale of Monco John Deere. For fiscal year 2025, the net income forecast is 750 million. Results are expected to be higher year over year, primarily due to a lower provision for credit losses, partially offset by less favorable financing spreads. Additionally, 2024 results were affected by the valuation allowance on assets held for sale of Monco John Deere. Slide 14 concludes with our guidance for net income effective tax rate and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 2025, our full year net income forecast is expected to be in the range of $5 and $5.5 billion, highlighting structural improvements over previous cycles. Next, our guidance incorporates an effective tax rate between 23 and 25%. Lastly, cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be in the range of $4.5 to $5.5 billion. It is important to emphasize that our implied guidance of around $19 in earnings per share is at sub-trough levels, with expected sales for fiscal 25 below 80% of mid-cycle, underscoring our commitment to operational excellence as we focus on proactive management to drive customer value at all points in the business cycle. This concludes our formal remarks. We'll now cover a few key topics before opening the line to Q&A. But before we get into this detail, John, would you like to share your thoughts on the year?