Dine Brands Global, Inc.

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2021 Dine Brands Global Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ken Dipty, Executive Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to DynBrand's fourth quarter fiscal 2021 conference call. I'm joined by John Payton, CEO, Vance Chang, CFO, John Zawinski, President of Athletes, and Jay Johns, President of IHOP. Before I turn the call to John, please remember our safe harbor regarding forward-looking information During the call, management may discuss information that is forward-looking and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause the actual results to be different than those expressed or implied. Please evaluate the forward-looking information in the context of these factors, which are detailed in today's press release and 10-K file. The forward-looking statements are as of today, and it seems no obligation to update or supplement these statements. You may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures which are described in our press release and also available on Dynabrand's Investor Relations website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Thanks, Ken, and good morning, everyone. On behalf of John, Jay, and Vance, thanks for joining us. We're at a moment in time that reminds me of A Tale of Two Cities. I read it in college for, you know, in our case, A Tale of Two Winds. It's headwinds and tailwinds, both at the same time. Tailwinds because guests are back in our restaurants and consumer intent to return to restaurants is at a pandemic period high. Our new, largely incremental off-premise business is holding steady at more than two times 2019, and restrictions are largely being rolled back across the country. Yet, at the same time, we're combating meaningful macroeconomic headwinds, inflation, the labor shortage, supply chain disruption, and now the war in Ukraine. That said, Dyn is stronger than ever, and that's because we played both defense and offense during the past two years. Our investments in tech, menu simplification, and off-premise business all position us for additional growth in 2022. COVID did surprise us again late in Q4, yet despite Omicron's impact beginning in mid-December, we maintained our momentum in Q4, delivering another solid quarter. Today I'll share highlights of our Q4 and our full year results. I'll talk about the impact of Omicron and other macroeconomic challenges. I'll frame up the ways in which the past two years made Dyn stronger than ever before, and I'll recap our most important accomplishments of 2021. So I'll begin by sharing the quarter's highlights, including comp sales, EBITDA, cash flow, and development. First, for the second consecutive quarter, average weekly sales for IHOP and Applebee's both surpassed the comparable quarter for 2019. For the sixth consecutive quarter, Applebee's beat its comp set, while IHOP outperformed its category two out of four quarters last year, according to Blackbox. We recognized revenue of $229.6 million and EBITDA of $60 million. which reflects the momentum of our brands, our franchise model, and consumer commitment to returning to restaurants. For the full year, our brands opened 46 new restaurants globally and closed 96. That's our best net development performance since 2019 and an indication that franchisees are pivoting from defense back to offense. And for the 12 months ending December of 2021, our asset-light model generated $191 million of adjusted free cash. That's an improvement of 79% compared to last year. So our Q4 and our full-year results are impressive, particularly considering the virus and certain macroeconomic headwinds. I'll address those now. Beginning in mid-December, Omicron briefly agitated staffing challenges and traffic before bouncing back in mid-February. At this point in time, the impact from Omicron has largely dissipated. We continue to see the impact of inflation on the cost of beef, poultry, pork products, oils, and eggs. And in light of the situation in Ukraine, we're closely following energy costs. And while we expect supply chain availability and pricing to moderate throughout 2022, the increases in cost of labor are likely to remain over the long term. Despite these headwinds, we are increasingly encouraged that we're at the beginning of the end of COVID, and as we transition to the endemic phase of the virus, we're optimistic that the days of mask requirements, proof of vaccination, and capacity restrictions are behind us. So Natalie just focused on dying and how we're emerging as stronger than ever from the past two years. And I think it's important to define what I mean by stronger. Strength is not only about the number of our brand's brick-and-mortar restaurants. Today, strength is all about in-restaurant technology, digital innovation, loyalty programs, communicating and serving our guests on their terms, when, where, and how they prefer. And in that context, I'll share examples of what we've done that have made us stronger. First, throughout the last two years, we've innovated the in-restaurant guest experience. For example, our hygiene and safety protocols are enhanced and will become the new standard. Guests can now put their names on our waitlists and pay their bills with their phones. Servers are now serving with server tablets, which help them with efficiency and speed of service. They also earn more money. This year, we're rolling out IHOP's new POS, and Applebee's is projected to follow in 2023. The new POS includes a new kitchen management system and server tablet integration and provides a boost to front-of-house and back-of-house productivity. It improves guest service and helps servers earn more. The second reason we're stronger is because we've innovated the off-premise experience. Applebee's and IHOP grew takeout and delivery more than two times versus 2019. This is largely incremental business that we intend to nurture and grow. To-go packaging is also next-gen. It keeps food hot longer, and it's designed to showcase our menu. We've supercharged technology investment and adoption, and throughout 2022, Applebee's.com, IHOP.com, Flip.com, and their associated mobile apps will all be brand new. We're changing back-of-house processes to better accommodate our higher off-premise volumes. For example, we introduced CarSide Express at Applebee's and Curbside at IHOP. The app used geosensing technology to track guest proximity to the restaurants and shorten handoff times. And importantly, we implemented a new CRM and digital platform that has vastly improved our digital marketing and marketing analytics, which serves as a foundation for our loyalty programs. Finally, we're stronger because we've streamlined operations and identified new sources of revenue that strengthen the financial performance of our franchisees. Today, for example, our menus are streamlined by more than a third compared to pre-COVID, and as a result, our kitchens are more efficient, there's less food waste, faster prep times, improved quality and consistency of those items that remain. Second, our franchisees embraced outdoor dining and expanded their seating capacity with minimal investment in capital. Applebee's launched Cosmic Wings, and IHOP is testing virtual brands Thrilled Cheese, and Super Mega Dia in seven test markets, with even more markets coming online, providing incremental revenue to our franchisees. And we work with our franchisees to expand our sales channels via ghost kitchens in the U.S. and abroad. Most importantly, our asset-light model allows us to invest in what we do best, menu innovation, marketing, and technology, all for the benefit of our franchisees. So our scale is also uniquely dying. Our IHOP and Applebee's purchasing co-op, for example, procures approximately $2 billion in goods and services annually, and this significant market footprint helps mitigate, to some extent, supply chain availability and cost dynamics. And our scale enables us to invest more in technology than either Applebee's or IHOP could do on its own. And finally, our world-class brands are also uniquely Dime. Applebee's and IHOP continue to gain share because guests trust us, love us, and appreciate that we're focused on delivering delicious food at a great value while also providing experiences that are enjoyable and safe. I purposely focused my comments this morning on our results and our 2021 accomplishments, and John, Jay, and Vance will do the same. That's because we're looking forward to sharing our plans for growth during our Investor and Analyst Day next Wednesday, March 9th, at the Westin Grand Central in New York City or via our virtual broadcast. And with that, I'll pass over to Vance, who will discuss our financial performance.

Thank you, John. As John mentioned, we're well positioned for growth, and I'm pleased to share with all of you our financial results. I'll start with a recap of our operating highlights. Then I'll provide a summary of the capital allocation for 2021. Finally, I'll review our financial performance guidance for 2022, starting with the income statement. Franchise revenues for the fourth quarter were $162.9 million, compared to $134.8 million for the same period of 2020. And that improvement was primarily due to an increase in royalty revenues, which reflects a significant recovery in our business over the last 12 months. And without advertising revenues, franchise revenues increased 21%, mostly due to higher domestic franchise restaurant sales. Regarding our company restaurant operations, sales for the fourth quarter were $36.6 million, compared to $32.6 million for the same quarter last year. This was mainly due to an increase in customer traffic as well as average check. Rental segment revenues for the fourth quarter were $29.1 million, compared to $27 million for the same quarter of 2020. The favorable variance was the result of an increase in percentage rental income based on franchisees' retail sales and a decline in level rent adjustments. Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.32, compared to adjusted EPS of $0.39 for the same quarter last year. The improvement was from a 43% increase in gross profit, partially offset by higher G&A expense. Now let me provide a little more detail on the increased G&A. As shared on our Q221 call, we expect the G&A to be higher in second half relative to the first half of the year, mainly due to two things. Number one, higher incentive compensation pool. And number two, plans of deferment of expenses for professional services and travel until the second half of 2021. Our Q4 G&A was $48.9 million. compared to $39.4 million for the fourth quarter of last year. Approximately 70% of the increase was due to our incentive compensation rule. So now let's move to EBITDA. For 2021, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $253.3 million, compared to $158.7 million in 2020. The increase was primarily due to improvement in our business which led to increases in both total revenues and gross profit. Consolidated Just Debit Up for 2021 was also higher than our performance guidance. This was mainly due to lower than expected G&A expenses from timing, and we have built this into our 2022 performance guidance. Now let's get to cash flows. We generated a Just Debit Cash Flow of about $191 million in 2021. This compares favorably to $106.6 million for 2020. Cash from operations for 2021 was $195.8 billion compared to $96.5 million for 2020. The improvement in both was primarily due to higher gross profit and favorable change in working capital, partially offset by higher GMA expenses. It's important to note that as of December 31st, essentially all of the remaining balance of the $62 million of deferrals has been repaid to Don by our franchisee. in 2021. This includes royalties, advertising fees, and rent paid. It is also a strong indication of financial health for our franchisees. And of course, the collection of these deferred payments has a favorable impact on cash flow operations. CapEx for 2021 was $16.8 million compared to $10.9 million for 2020. Roughly half of our 2021 CapEx was in technology. Now let's go to the balance sheet Our financial discipline has helped us maintain our strong cash position, giving us the flexibility that we're looking for throughout the pandemic. We ended the fourth quarter with total unrestricted cash of $361.4 million. This compares favorably to unrestricted cash of $304.2 million at the end of the third quarter. Our leverage ratio also improved by half a turn. As of Q4, it was 3.86 times compared to 4.36 times This represents Dine's lowest leverage ratio since the fourth quarter of 2015. Let me also share with you our inflation outlook at Dine. We continue to be impacted by inflationary pressures just like the rest of the restaurant industry. For the fourth quarter of 2021, our year-over-year commodity inflation was approximately 17% on average across both brands. But looking ahead, we anticipate some moderation in commodity costs in the second half of this year. Based on current conditions and available information, we expect inflation for 2022 to be north of 10% for both grants compared to last year. As a reminder, it takes approximately 2% to 2.5% of menu price increases for our franchisees to cover about 10% of commodity inflation. Regarding capital allocation, We continue to create value for our shareholders. We do that by returning capital along with investing in CapEx and GNA to unlock long-term growth. The steady improvement in our business in 2021 positioned us to resume returning capital to shareholders. We paid a fourth quarter cash dividend of 40 cents per share or roughly $6.9 million in aggregate on January 7th. We also repurchased 59,099 shares for approximately $4.5 million in the last 45 days of the year, at a weighted average price of $75.81 per share. As of December 31st, there was approximately $66 million remaining on our current repurchase authorization. And to build on that, so far in Q1 of this year, we have made two significant decisions for our shareholders. Number one, we have stated last quarter that the $0.40 quarterly dividend represented a healthy starting point to grow from. As you can see from our financial results, our businesses are getting closer to a steady state. This enabled us to approve a 15% increase in our quarterly cash dividend to 46 cents per share for the first quarter of 2022. Number two, the board also approved the new share repurchase program, authorizing the company to repurchase up to $250 million of its common stock. The new authorization will replace the existing plan which was approved in February of 2019. Lastly, I will review the highlight of our financial performance guidance for 2022, which assumes there are no further disruptions to our business due to COVID this year, other than the impact on Omicron in Q1. Please see the press release we issued today for complete details on our guidance. We believe that the current disruption in the restaurant landscape has created an opportunity for Dine to gain market share. We want to position ourselves to out-execute our peers. 2022 is an investment year. We are making upfront investments in technology, development, and new revenue channels for both brands. This will further position Dime for long-term sustainable growth, even though the benefits of those investments may not be fully seen in this calendar year. For 2022, G&A is expected to range between approximately $188 million and $198 million including non-cash stock-based compensation expense and depreciation of approximately $30 million.

Pardon me, Ken. We cannot hear you. Please check your mute button.

with projected net unit development to range between 50 and 65 domestic restaurants. We expect unit development between 5 and 15 net fewer Applebee's restaurants, signifying the end of Applebee's plan portfolio rationalization. Lastly, consolidated just EBITDA for 2022 is expected to be between approximately $235 million and $250 million, inclusive of company restaurant segment EBITDA. To close, our business has demonstrated strong improvement. The continued execution of our growth strategy and ability to consistently generate meaningful adjusted free cash flow makes us enthusiastic about the year ahead. Now I will turn the call over to John Swinsky who will provide an update to Applebee's. John.

Hey, excuse me one second, Vance. I'm going to jump in. There was a technical glitch, and it was about 30 seconds where we understand that no one could hear you, and we lost you just about the time you were saying that the company has put the new buyback authorization in place of $250 million. Could you just cover that section, because we missed you for about 30 seconds? Sure.

I think that was the number two point I said. The board also approved the new repurchase program authorizing the company to repurchase up to $250 million of its common stock. The new authorization will replace the existing plan, which was approved in February of 2019. And then lastly, I'll review the highlights of our financial performance guidance for 2022, which assumes there are no further disruption to our business due to COVID this year, other than the impact on Omicron Q1. That's good. That's good. That's where we pick it back up.

All right, perfect. Vance, you were great both times. So good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining. 2021 was indeed an exceptional year for the Applebee's brand. After the pandemic briefly interrupted our momentum in Q1 of last year, Applebee's delivered comp sales increases of 10.5% in Q2, 12.5% in Q3, and 9.1% in Q4 versus our 2019 baseline. As with prior quarters, Q4 weekly results were very consistent, with comp sales in the plus 9 and plus 13% range, except for the final two weeks of the year when Omicron, in fact, was quite evident. On a full year basis, 21 versus 19, Applebee's posted a comp sales increase of 6.2%, representing our best performance under Dine ownership. This performance reflects weekly restaurant sales of $50,500, also representing our highest sales volume under Diamond. While the brand maintained record results on multiple fronts, I'm pleased to report that our company restaurant portfolio also delivered its best year in 21, posting an 11% comp sales increase over 19, and ranking number four among our 30 franchise partners. And according to Black Box Intelligence, with the exception of only the first week of 2021, Applebee's outperformed the casual dining category for a remarkable 51 consecutive weeks last year by an average of 740 basis points. I should note that Applebee's also outperformed the category on a 21 versus 20 basis by 960 basis points with a comp sales increase of 38.2%. In addition to comp sales, Applebee's fundamentals remain rock solid as the brand continues to maintain category leadership on important attributes such as affordability, menu variety, convenience, to-go awareness, delivery awareness, and overall brand awareness. Now, on the off-premise front, Q4 weekly sales remained very stable at $13,800 per restaurant, more than double our pre-pandemic volume, accounting for 27% of total sales. Applebee's Q4 sales mix consisted of 73% dine-in, 14% car side to go, and 13% delivery. With significant investments over the past few years and continued operational excellence, I'm now more convinced than ever that our off-premise business is a genuine core competency and a very leverageable point of difference for the Applebee's brand. In addition, we'll soon be adding our third drive-thru pickup window this one in Columbia, South Carolina, with plans for several more throughout the year. Although a small sample size, preliminary results are very encouraging. On the delivery front, we started rolling, as John referenced, our Cosmic Wings virtual brand to DoorDash over the past several weeks on a market-by-market basis. At present, about 1,000 restaurants are now active on DoorDash. With the balance to follow this month, we anticipate completing Cosmic Wings' delivery expansion and Q2 with the addition of Grubhub. Now, on the development front, we closed 25 restaurants in 2021. That's our lowest closure total in five years, signifying the end of Applebee's planned portfolio rationalization. In addition, we opened five new traditional restaurants last year. We hope to double this number of new restaurant openings in 2022 with a combination of traditional and ghost kitchen units. of our development escalation moving forward. As we methodically reestablish our development pipeline, I expect to achieve net new unit growth beginning in 2023. As of the end of 2021, Applebee's had 1,578 restaurants in the U.S. Now, to help address very obvious ongoing labor challenges, we executed our second national hiring day on February 8th with great success. In total, Applebee's secured more than 58,000 applications on a single day, surpassing our 40,000 total from last year. This, along with media muscle and supply chain expertise, represent just a few examples where scale provides Applebee's tremendous competitive advantage. Looking forward, we'll continue to leverage culinary, beverage, marketing, and media innovation as primary differentiators for the Applebee's brand. We close out 2021 by driving awareness of our co-branded partnership with PepsiCo and Cheetos, and we kicked off 2022 by thanking our loyal guests for sticking with us throughout the pandemic. As we move through the year, you can expect a mix of targeted, occasion-based messaging from Applebee's featuring buzz-worthy innovation and value propositions designed to reinforce our eatin' good in the neighborhood position. In total, I expect national media allocation to be very healthy this year, and slightly favorable last year from an absolute dollar perspective. To summarize, 2021 represented the culmination of our strategic brand optimization work over the past several years. As expected, 2021 provided us the opportunity to really unlock Applebee's full potential, providing a glimpse as to what's possible moving forward. I'm proud of our team, and I'm very proud of our franchise partners. I believe Applebee's is now exceedingly well-positioned to flourish on

review of the IHOP brand. Thanks, John. Congratulations on another great quarter. Good morning, everyone. Average weekly unit sales improved each month of the fourth quarter. Sales remained strong, averaging approximately 37,500 per week, in line with the same quarter of 2019. Although IHOP's comp declined 3% in the fourth quarter, we view this as isolated and not a change in our solid fundamentals. There were several factors that adversely affected performance. The most impactful include the surge of the Omicron variant in mid-December, a loss of standard operating hours in some restaurants due to labor shortages, rolling over the hugely successful tie-ins with the MGM's animated film The Addams Family, which was IHOP's strongest promotion window during 2018 and 2019. Additionally, a four-week core menu print mismatch and a day-of-the-week holiday mismatch for both Christmas and New Year's Day, which both fell on Saturdays in fiscal 2021. Weekday placement of holidays are very advantageous for our brand. As mentioned earlier, COVID continues to affect the labor supply. With that said, IOP remains approximately 85-90% staffed nationally. The percentage of our domestic restaurants that are open for standard operating hours are greater, improved by 3 percentage points to 86% compared to Q3. Approximately 26% are open and operating 24-7, which is consistent with our previous quarter. We believe that having additional restaurants open for standard operating hours could have a positive effect on our dine-in business, which is 76% of our sales mix for the fourth quarter. Our off-premise business remains steady, accounting for 24% of sales in Q4. Average weekly off-premise sales volume for the fourth quarter of 2021 were approximately $9,300. This compares to sales volume of approximately $9,200 for Q4 of 2020. To enhance our one-to-one guest engagement, we'll be launching our new loyalty program by the end of Q1 this year. It's a true earn and burn program that allows our guests to collect and redeem rewards when they dine with us. We believe this program will be a fun and appealing way for us to create even stronger connections with our guests, build brand loyalty, and drive incremental visits. We've evolved our strategy to adapt to the changes in consumer behavior brought on by the pandemic. our plans to grow sales extend beyond traditional brick-and-mortar locations. Expanding our presence through virtual brands out of our existing domestic restaurants provides an opportunity to drive incremental sales with lower capital requirements. In the fourth quarter, we started testing two virtual brands in nine restaurants across Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Lexington, Kentucky. The early results are encouraging, and we recently launched a beta test in approximately 50 restaurants. These virtual brands, which intentionally do not compete with our breakfast day part business, require minimal new FKUs and don't require new equipment to execute. We're enthusiastic about this flexible and lower-cost option to meet the convenience needs of our guests, and we look forward to providing updates on our progress. Turning to development, our franchisees opened 40 new restaurants globally in 2021, of which 37 were domestic openings. We remain confident in our ability to significantly expand our unit growth through our four development formats, which include traditional, non-traditional, a small prototype, and flipped by IHOP, all of which can be done in conversions. We opened our second flipped location in December in New York City. The unit's approximately 1,800 square feet, and the seating capacity is about 20 seats. We'll provide more details on flips later in the year. In addition to growing our domestic presence, We're also focusing on key opportunities outside the U.S. We recently announced our first franchisee deal in the Caribbean. The first IHOP location in Nassau, the Bahamas, is scheduled to open in late 2022 through an agreement with Bahamas Limited, which calls for opening 16 IHOP restaurants over the next several years.

Additionally, we announced a deal with an established IHOP franchisee in the U.S.

to develop both IHOP and Applebee's restaurants in the UAE. We also announced IHOP's first Ghost Kitchen in North America in partnership with Ghost Kitchen Brands. Our guests in Toronto can now enjoy a wide selection of affordable menu items for off-premise consumption. To wrap up, I'm very proud of what we've accomplished in 2021. We outperformed our category in Q2 and Q3 by an average of 183 basis points relative to the comparable quarters in 2019, according to Black Box Intelligence. We adapted to change the consumer's behavior by launching an array of highly portable items such as our new handcrafted metals. We maintain a strong off-premise business, even as guests return to in-restaurant dining. We elevated our omni-channel approach to utilize our marketing resources better, and our franchisees opened 40 new restaurants, including the first two flipped by high applications. I'd like to thank our team members and our franchisees for their valuable contributions to make all that happen. Looking ahead, I'm optimistic about our strong unit growth potential, and expanding our presence through virtual vehicles. Lastly, we're optimistic that new cases of COVID-19 will start to decline and staffing will return to pre-pandemic levels. And I'll turn the call back over to John Payton for his closing comments. John?

Thanks. Thanks, Jay. Appreciate it. Great quarter for both IHOP and Applebee's. And before we have closing comments, I think we're going to take some questions.

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Brian Moulin from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Hey, thank you. Just in reference to the 2022 guidance, you know, I can appreciate you're not guiding same-store sales by brand today, but I think it would be helpful to understand, you know, the underlying assumptions on the top line that might lead one to either the high end or the low end of that EBITDA guidance. You know, however you'd like to talk about that, that would be helpful, either average weekly sales in relation to 2019 or any other ways that would help people know the underlying revenue assumptions that you're making.

Thanks, Brian. You know, as we pointed out, we're not guiding on comp, but what goes into our guidance reflects the initiatives that we're working on that are from comp growth, development growth, and new revenue channels. There's still, I think that the market expansion will happen over time, you know, beyond 2023. after some of these initiatives are realized, but it is an investment here for us. So that's why we're not specifically guiding a common performance. But again, having said that, we are seeing Omicron mostly behind us, so anything beyond Q1 is sort of growth-based focus for us going forward.

Okay, thank you. And then just a question that I have. It sounds like the percentage of locations that were open 24-7 didn't change much from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, if I heard you right, Jay, in the prepared remarks. So just wondering if you could update us on your current thinking on that topic today. I imagine as a franchisor, you want to get that fully restored. What is the franchisee perspective right now, and how are those conversations going?

Well, I'm confident we'll get back to this pre-pandemic level.

I just can't give you an answer to exactly when that will be. Clearly, the pandemic is waning.

I think that staffing is improving slowly. And they're getting back to full standard operating hours. As you heard me say, that improved 3%. It's improved 3 more percent just in the quarter to right now, as we said today. So it is slowly getting better, and I think that once we get to kind of the full operating hours of the standard business, you'll have franchisees that will start opening more and more. The way our franchisees historically do this, even for, say, a new restaurant opening, they typically don't start 24-7 when they first open. They start standard hours.

Then they'll move to what we call 24-2. So they'll go to 24 hours just on the weekend to begin with. And that way they can slowly build it as they get staffed there.

And I really expect that's what we'll see as this turns around.

Thank you.

Hey, Brian, it's John Payton. I'll add that, you know, on a national basis, the last two quarters, Q3, Q4 of last year, you all may recall we were saying that based upon canvassing franchisees, we were about 85% staffed versus what was needed. You know, what we're hearing now from our franchisees as we ended the first quarter was, in the first quarter of this year is that we're now approaching 90% even a little bit better. So we are seeing an improvement in staffing nationally after stalling last year.

Understood. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jack Corrigan from Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. My first question is on on GNA and the guidance for 22. Can you give a little more detail on the drivers of that? And maybe if anything is unique in 22 that might ease in 23 and going forward? And then also within that, could you quantify any level of permanent savings that you found during the pandemic?

Hey, Jack, it's John. I'll take it at a high level, and then I'll turn it over to Vance for a little bit more specific on the numbers. But, you know, when it comes to GNA and 22, you know, as we – enter my second year as well, is there are a couple things that we want to invest in, and these investments we believe will pay off over the long term. And they're not a permanent increase to our G&A, but they're certainly investments we think are necessary next year, or now this year in 2022. One of them is technology, whether it's restaurant-based technology, back-of-house or front-of-house. We've got ambitious plans. And for the consumer-facing technology and all we want our guests to be able to do on their phones, we also have ambitious plans there. So there's certainly a tech investment we're making in 2022 that we began last year that we think will pay off over the long term. You know, we're also investing in accelerating, you know, unit growth, our loyalty program, you know, and some other things like that. And, Vance, can you sort of specifically, you know, repeat the data behind that?

Yeah, you know, I think the 2022 guidance really reflects the appropriate level of infrastructure that we need to unlock the growth potential of our brand. We do not anticipate another big increase in G&A beyond what we currently plan for this year. We'll cover more of this on our investor day next week, but ultimately, as I mentioned earlier, we do see margin expansion over time as a result of the expected growth from comp and development and new revenue channels that we're investing in. John talked about this earlier, just now, but the investments are primarily related to technology initiatives designed to support growth, franchisee support to improve operations, and guest experience and unit development-related support costs. I guess one last thing I'll mention is that we do have open positions in different departments and different projects in the consumer that we're planning for 2021, but we're still pursuing 2022. And that's also being built into our 2022 G&A guidance.

Great thing. That's really helpful, Keller. And my second question is really on the health of your franchisees. And maybe within that, could you talk about what the franchisee store level profitability was in 2021 versus pre-COVID? And then given your comments that you expect 10% plus inflation, Do you expect that to be pressured materially in 2022?

Well, I'll comment on the inflation point first. You know, as I mentioned in my preferred remarks, I think the average inflation for the year we're expecting north of 10%, or more specifically about 13% for Applebee's and 9.5% for IHOP for this year, with some modulation in the second half of the year versus the first half. our franchisees are, I think the best way we can explain our financial health for our franchisees is based on the fact that all of the referral has been repaid and we see that there's interest in development again, development growth again, so that's also a reflection of the vote of confidence from our franchisees. But we haven't historically disclosed franchisee financial information specifically.

Jack, this is John C. I would state very clearly, Applebee's franchisee financial health is better than at any point in my five-year tenure here, coming back a second time. They had a terrific year. And then with respect to covering inflation, they're smart and strategic, and they'll be very responsible on pricing. And I view this as a market share. opportunity going forward.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Satan from Wedbush. Your line is now open.

Thank you. You know, congrats on a really solid Q4. But I think, you know, the EBITDA guidance obviously is a is a bit of a concern because, you know, you're going down year over year. And understanding, you know, it's a year of investment and we have a big step up in GNA. Maybe you can give us a sneak peek of your, you know, longer-term expectation around EBITDA growth, you know, beyond 2022, if that's possible.

Hey, hi Nick, this is Vance. We will cover a lot more of this on our Investor Day, but you said it, 2022 is an investment year for us, and the reason why the margin is sort of going down year over year is because we're making upfront investments in the business where all the benefits of these initiatives are happening over time. So it's more of a timing mismatch, and we think 2023 and beyond is more reflective of our run rate business. We think of this year as the year to be aggressive in how we think about the future of the business for the next few years, setting ourselves up for a longer-term sustainable growth. But at the same time, we have a very healthy capital return program planned for our shareholders as well. So we're trying to take that more balanced approach with how we think about our capital. Male Speaker 2.

Understood. Have you purchased any shares year-to-date?

Male Speaker 3. We have an active repurchase program that's previously approved that we initiated in late Q4 of last year, and we continue to do so this year. And we obviously announced the new $250 million share repurchase program that will be, in fact, coming up and will continue to do so. It's a big part of our capital return program and part of our overall strategy to increase our earnings per share over time.

Okay. And then you guys talked about 2% to 2.5% menu price across the system, if I understood correctly. Do you think that will be higher as the year progresses, just given the inflation that you're talking about?

Hey, Nick. John C. here with respect to Applebee's. I don't know. This is a fluid environment. As I said, our franchise partners tend to be very strategic and disciplined and conservative in their pricing in viewing this as a market share opportunity. I don't see an overreach on that part. I see at some point

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Gonzalez from KeyBank Capital. Your line is now open.

Hey, if I can maybe follow up on some of the G&A and even the CapEx investments. I'm wondering about the technology side of it. Is there a way that you're planning to recoup that investment in terms of fees charged to franchisees or any type of transaction fee in the future?

Hey, Eric, I'll take that. It's John P. The answer is no. The value that we add as a franchisor is the tech platform that we build. So generally speaking, the cost of building the platform are ours, and the cost, annual service fees and maintenance, once we roll it out, are the franchisees. And we do this as part of our value proposition, which is the investments we make in tech on their behalf. And because Applebee's and iHopper part of dying, you know, we can do more for both brands than either brand could do on their own when it comes to investments in tech.

Okay, fair enough. And then on the inflation commentary, I think you said, you know, maybe slightly higher than 10%. Can you maybe comment on what you might have locked in for the year and how much visibility you have in that 10%, how that compares to prior years?

So on the inflation point prior year, I think in 2021, what we saw was about close to 7% for Applebee's and 6% for IHOP. We don't control menu pricing for our franchisees. Our franchisees do so on their own. It's a fluid situation. I think the best example I can give was in my preferred remarks, which is 2% to 2.5% of menu pricing increase covers about 10% of Our franchisees are aware of the math, and they will look at it. They will take a very disciplined approach to many pricing increases going forward.

This is John. See, I would just argue both brands are extraordinarily well-positioned to navigate an inflationary environment given our scale.

All right. Thanks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Great. Thank you very much. First, just wanted to follow up on that last comment about the 2 to 2.5 price. Clearly, that's the math of what it takes to mitigate, I guess, 10% basket inflation. Just wondering if you'd share what the actual pricing is. I know the franchisees get to make their own decisions, and like you said, encouraged to hear that they're disciplined in terms of pricing. being cautious and strategic, but what's the pricing perhaps in the first quarter of 22 looking like for each brand?

Yeah, hey, Jeff, it's John P. Let me sort of jump in on behalf of both brands. What we can tell you is, and we haven't seen Q1 yet for this year, but what we can tell you is typically franchisees in both brands raise prices 1% to 3% a year. Last year, particularly in the back half, it was 3% to 4%. So they did increase 100 basis points or so, what they had historically done. And so when Vance gives you that math of 2.5% increase covers a 10% increase in inflation, it gives you the sense that they are at least mathematically covering their cost of goods and probably also a bit of the inflation that's built into labor costs as well as a result of the last year. And then the important thing to keep in mind is that both of our brands are value brands, and that's particularly important right now. And while our franchisees make their pricing decisions independently of us, they are aligned on balancing this bit of a tightrope between maintaining value for our customers, as well as protecting their margins as best they can in this environment.

Understood. And then a couple of questions just on the cash usage. One is related to the CapEx spend. It looks like guidance is for it to roughly double versus 21. I'm just wondering what the biggest components of the incremental spend are in 22, whether that's some components of the technology or the company-operated side of the business, just trying to get a gauge for the increase in CapEx guidance.

Yeah, that's a good question for Vance to walk through the components.

Yeah, the key investment areas for CapEx is on-premise and off-premise technology to improve guest experience and operation efficiency. That's probably the bigger piece. We're spending money on loyalty program, on CRM infrastructure, and then there is a piece that's on our company-owned restaurants.

Got it. And just lastly, as it relates to Cash usage beyond CapEx. I know you mentioned your leverage, I think you said it's the lowest since 2015. So with that as a backdrop, I'm just wondering what your outlook is for that. And specifically, I know you raised the dividend. You got a little share repurchase. Just wondering whether this is now kind of the more normal steady state dividend we should expect or whether you think there's further upside to go on that dividend. I know the initial dividend you established a quarter or two ago was more a starting point. This was the bump up. Just trying to get a gauge, again, for your leverage view and the return of cash, which is your priority. Thank you.

Sure. So, you know, we've said this before. We have a very disciplined approach to cash utilization. You know, it is our objective over the next few quarters to evaluate and balance our capital allocation strategy based on, you know, one, investment in business and technology, as we said. Two is returning capital to shareholders. Three is debt management and making sure our leverage model is appropriate. And fourth is maintaining the financial flexibility to address any remaining uncertainty from the pandemic or inflation, labor, supply chain issues that we're seeing right now. And then lastly, just any strategic M&A opportunities. On dividends specifically, we increased our cash dividends by 15% last quarter.

We're currently at about 2% to 3% dividend yield, depending on which stock price you use for that calculation.

We do believe this is an attractive yield relative to our peers, But we have plans to further increase our savings over time. And on share repurchases, we talked about this new $250 million program that we just started. Our level of annual repurchases will be opportunistic and based on our view of the company's intrinsic value and where things are trading. But it's also just going to be a part of our overall strategy to increase our earnings per share over time. I hope that answers your question.

Yes, I appreciate it. And, Jeff, I'll just put a little bit of a go around that if I can. You know, I think what's implied in the question is, you know, is $400-plus million, you know, the cash balance that we intend to sit on over the long term? You know, and the answer to that is no, that this is certainly a moment in time. We, as you know, we were accumulating cash during the two years of the crisis to make sure that we had what we needed, not knowing what the future would bring. And then last year, the recovery happened much more quickly than the industry anticipated. So, you know, we had a good year last year as well. So as Vance said, we're now looking over the next, you know, couple of quarters to take a very holistic but balanced approach to, you know, how we work with that cash balance.

Great. Look forward to seeing you next week.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Levy from MKM Partners. Your line is now open.

Thank you for taking my question. I guess just building on Jeff's question there, as you think about the initiatives and the investments, how should we think about what kind of savings and contributions we can see from some of these tech investments, especially as it relates to labor, and also what kind of drivers we could see from some of your initiatives? that you discussed, whether it's on or off premise. Thank you.

The labor initiatives will impact the franchisee's financials and we obviously have the interest to make sure that the health of our franchisees are taken care of. You probably won't see that in Dyn's financials. But the result of the investments will happen over time, you know, the Ghost Kitchen, the virtual plans that we're working on will happen throughout the year, comp will continue, and development will continue, so that's where the growth of our investment will come in over the course of the next 12 to 18 months. I think, as I mentioned earlier, 2022 calendar year guidance looks just because of the fact that we're making upfront investments from the start. And then, again, the result of these expected growth is happening over time. So please come to our investor day. We'll get into more details on 23 and beyond targets that we're shooting for the company. And you'll also get a sense of a more detailed plan from each one of our brands on what we're doing for the next few

And Brett, it's Sean P. I'd like to add that technology is meant to do two things. Vance was clear that at the franchisee level, at the restaurant level, it's certainly going to help with costs by making back-of-house and front-of-house more efficiency. The benefit to dine is on the top line. We're helping franchisees grow their business, which obviously helps us grow our franchise revenue. So the investment we're making, for example, in the technology to support IHOP's soon-to-be-announced loyalty program is going to, we believe, drive traffic, which benefits us. The investment we're making in apps and off-premise to grow and nurture that business increases revenue to franchisees. That benefits us. And even handhelds for servers, which makes restaurants more efficient, also helps IHOP, for example, on weekends when they've got 90-minute waits, turn tables faster. That benefits us as well. So the technology benefits Dine as well as the franchisees.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question goes in the line of Todd Brooks from the Benchmark. Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning, everybody. I just want to, first of all, go back. I think the call cut out in a different spot than maybe, John, where you reset it to. For us on this end, it cut out as soon as Vance started talking about G&A, 188 to 198 million, and then the next 30 seconds were gone after that. I didn't know. if you wanted to take a second here to get that into the transcript of the call here.

Yeah, so I was saying G&A is $188, $198 million, including non-cash stock-based comp and depreciation is approximately $30 million. I mentioned that the range is inclusive of G&A related to company restaurant segments. And our projection also includes some G&A spend from 2021 that was pushed through 2022. That was the comment I made on G&A. And then CapEx, I said, we're expecting to raise between $33 million and $38 million. And that reflects the additional investments in the business that we discussed earlier. We expect upside to development at IHOP compared to prior years. We projected net unit development to range between 50 and 65 domestic restaurants, and we expect unit development between 5 and 15 net fewer Applebee's restaurants, signifying the end of Applebee's plan for oil rationalization.

Okay, great. Thanks, Vance. Appreciate it. Can you quantify for us that amount that slid out of kind of Q4 21 and into 22 as we're evaluating maybe what the component of the jump is that you had intended to spend this year but weren't able to?

It's open positions in different departments that weren't filled and projects and consumer research and product development and travel expenses that are still pursuing 2022. It's not a material map, but it does make up some of the 2022 guidance.

Okay, great. And then... John, on Cosmic Wings, I know you spoke to the rollout, I think, on the second platform in Q2. So I guess what will the presence be across the two platforms when that's completed? And just thoughts, and I'm sure you'll share more details next week, on what type of sales layer Cosmic could be for Applebee's.

Sure, Todd. Good morning. It's tough to gauge at this point in time because we had a, I think I referenced on a prior call, we had a supply interruption on the wings front, and so we really couldn't put pedal to metal. Think about it this way. We started with Uber, Cosmic Wings deployment, with Uber in February, March of last year. We are now currently expanding to the largest provider, delivery provider, DoorDash. And then we'll follow... over the next month or so with Grubhub. And so by the time we get into Q2, we will have full deployment across all three of the largest delivery providers. At that point, we'll have a very clear view as to the full potential of Cosmic Wings in terms of average weekly sales and sustained incremental impact on the business. I doubt I'll quantify that because it's just too early, quite honestly, at our investor call. or investor conference next week.

Okay, fair enough. And then, Jay, just a quick question. Can you walk through loyalty timing again and maybe a little bit on the structure of the program, how the customer gains points, and when we should start to see whatever revenue benefit we would see from loyalty hitting an IHOP? Thank you.

Yeah, thanks, Todd. The program, like I said, we should get that launched by the Q1, so that's the end of this month, basically. We're very close to that being launched. I hope to be able to share some more details with you next week as well on specifics. As I said, it's kind of what they call an earn and burn program.

You earn rewards by sending money. It's not just a pure discounting program.

You're actually driving sales, traffic, etc. for people to to spend money to actually earn the ability to redeem that for other food items, etc. And there will probably be some chances for them to do things other than just food. We have the opportunity sometimes to do special programs with vendors, etc., where they might be able to get rewards that are more experience-based and things that we might be able to do for that.

So, a lot more details to come on this, but... We think the guests are really going to be excited about the program.

It's going to be very unique, I think, in our segment, and I believe it's really going to help us drive guest behavior. And it's a way also for us to engage with our fans, we'll say, at breakfast and get them to come in at other times of the day so we can expand our base to other day parts.

Okay, perfect. Look forward to seeing you all next week. Take care.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro from Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Thanks and good morning. I was hoping you could just clarify that back to the GNA and the CapEx guidance. And, you know, thinking about the increase in each, is there a way to ballpark sort of how much of the increase is related to corporate infrastructure investments versus, you know, call it direct co-investments at the store level? whether it be helping to pay for new POS or other equipment? And also, does it include any new unit growth incentives to franchisees?

Thanks, Brian. So the CAPEX guidance does not include incentive programs, but it's And then to your question on the co-investment, the way we work it out with our franchisees typically is that we invest in the infrastructure part of the technology. They will pay for the ongoing maintenance, the licensing fee part of it. So it's a co-investment from that perspective, but we're not necessarily paying for the hardware costs of the tablets or the POS hardware themselves.

Okay, that's helpful. And this new range we're talking about in 22, 188 to 198, just so I'm clear, did you say that that's a new normal level of spend expected going forward, or are there one-timer investments in 22 where G&A dollars could be expected to decline from this level in 23 and beyond? Could you just clarify that?

Yeah, I think what I said was we don't expect another increase in G&A going forward. The increase, it's a mix of people that we hire, services projects that we're looking to do. And so it's investments in the infrastructure to unlock the growth that we think we can achieve. Overall, I think margin expansion will happen, and then the revenue growth will outpace our GMA growth for 2023 and beyond. numbers will make more sense and you'll see our goals that we set for ourselves going forward.

Okay. I'm sorry, two more on G&A. The incentive comp piece of it, how much incentive comp was included in 2021? Can you just level set how much higher versus a normal year is that? Just to help us frame the comparison into 2022, I heard your comment on the fourth quarter. I think you said it was up $7 or $8 million of the increase in G&A might have been related. Just if my quick math is right, maybe it was up $7 or $8. Is that representative of an outsized incentive comp? And we should expect incentive comp to go down in 2022? Just can you help level set that?

Yeah, you should definitely expect incentive comp to not repeat at the same level of 2021 What happens is we do have catch-up sort of GNA that we cut in 2020 that we have to make up in 21 and 22. So the catch-up roughly offsets the higher incentive comp that we experienced in 21.

Okay, great. And just...

Just to clarify, I think I said we shouldn't expect incentive companies. I think that point wasn't made on the performance of the company. It's just 2021 was an exceptional year. So that was the context of that.

Understood. Sorry, last one on G&A that you could help me clarify, hopefully. The guidance you said includes stock-based comp and DNA of $30 million. Okay. I think historically when the company has guided G&A, that stock comp and G&A component has been $40 to $45 million. Can you help understand what's driving that difference? Is there some difference in how you're defining that or accounting for that or any help there?

I think part of it was the type of investments we're doing in terms of company restaurants versus restaurants. versus corporate restaurants, and there's math for SouthBaseCom that goes into it as well. There's no strategic or big changes in estimates other than sort of how the plan kind of worked out for us.

Okay. And then last one, sorry, this is just I wanted to ask you about the balance sheet leverage. What are your targets, Vance, in terms of leverage? Do they differ at all from the company's historical leverage, sort of in that 5X debt-to-EBITDA? I know you're a little lower than that now. And then could you just remind us, too, when does the make-hole expire on your existing notes, and is there an opportunity to refi at some point moving through 22?

Yes, let me hit the refi point, and I'll talk about the leverage point. So a quick reminder, our 2024 bonds, becomes callable at par, and our 2026 bond becomes callable at 101 in June of 2022. We have a one-year window for us to exercise the call option. So, you know, the market is volatile right now, but we'll monitor it very closely, and we'll only refinance if the whole business securitization market is in our favor in terms of rate and structure. But it's a call option for us. We don't have to do it. Short bond is not $0.24. We think we're at the right leverage level right now. Our business is covered nicely. We do benefit from the relatively affordable securitization market without overextending our leverage level. We mentioned this before. Our CDR peers are in a level three leverage, and then our highly franchised peers are in the mid to high fours, and we're in between those two concepts. DSCR is 4.7 times this year. So we're really in a good position, and we will naturally love our older time as EBITDA grows, obviously. But we're really happy where we are.

Thank you. At this time, I am showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to John Payton for closing remarks.

Hey, thanks so much. Thanks, everybody, for joining our call today. Big thank you to our management team on the call today and across the country, to our franchisees and our team members for their hard work to deliver another strong quarter. And I'll tell all of you, we're looking forward. Our entire leadership team will be in New York next week. We'll have members of our board there. We'll have some leaders from our franchisee community. I look forward to spending time with you telling you our story about the future at our investor conference in New York City and also sharing with you some of the best of IHOP and Applebee's cuisine. So come for breakfast and lunch as well. So thanks very much, and I look forward to seeing you next week.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.