National Grid plc

Good morning and welcome to National Grid's half-year results presentation. I'm Angela Broad, Head of Investor Relations, and it's great to have so many of you on the call today. Firstly, please can I draw your attention to the cautionary statement at the front of the pack? As usual, a Q&A will follow the presentation. Please join via the conference call to ask a question by using star 1 or use the tab at the bottom of the webcast to submit a written question. All of today's materials are available on our website. And of course, for any further queries after the call, please do feel free to reach out to me or one of the IR team. So with that, I'd now like to hand you over to our CEO, John Pettigrew. John.

Many thanks, Angela. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Well, as you know, this is my last set of results, and I'll be handing over to Zoe, who becomes Chief Executive on the 17th of November. So before we get started with the results presentation, Let me pass it over to Zoe to say a few words.

Thank you John and good morning everyone. Today's results are an important moment for National Grid and for me personally as I pick up the baton from John. I want to take a moment to recognise his remarkable contribution over a decade as CEO. The strong foundations he leaves behind are a testament to his leadership and the dedication of our National Grid team. Since joining as CEO designate on the 1st of September, I've had the privilege of meeting with many colleagues and stakeholders. What stands out to me is the scale and ambition of what we're delivering, transforming our networks and investing at pace. Our £60 billion capital investment is not just a number, it's a commitment to future proofing networks so we can meet the surge in demand we're seeing and ensure the millions of homes and businesses we serve have the reliable and clean energy they need at a price they can afford. As I step into my role in the coming days, my immediate focus will be on maintaining momentum, staying focused on performance and delivering safely and responsibly. I will approach this with a clear-eyed view of the challenges and exciting opportunities ahead. I believe in the vital function energy companies play in driving growth and prosperity. I'm committed to ensuring National Grid plays its part with an unrelenting focus on operational excellence and capital discipline as we continue to deliver for our customers and create value for our shareholders. I look forward to meeting all of you in due course, but for now I'll hand to John and Andy to take you through the results.

Thank you Zoe. So turning to our half year results. As ever I'm here with Andy Agg and once we've been through our respective presentations we'll be happy to answer your questions. It's been a really positive first half as we've continued to build on our strong foundations to deliver excellent operational and financial performance. The investments we're making in our networks have never been more important to ensure continued resilience, enable economic growth, deliver cleaner energy, and meet growing power demand. And it's these drivers that underpin the strong visibility we have in our investment program, supported by our regulators. This in turn gives me huge confidence in National Grid's ability to carry on delivering a compelling investment proposition with investment growth around 10% per annum and underlying earnings per share growth of 6-8% whilst maintaining a strong balance sheet and delivering an inflation protected dividend. Before I come to our performance, I want to highlight three key areas which reinforce my confidence in our ability to deliver on our plans. Firstly, the strong progress we've made in securing the supply chain to deliver record levels of investment. As you know, a big focus over the last two years has been to secure the supply chain for our largest suite of major projects in the UK, the Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investments, or ASTI. Today, I'm pleased to say we're in a really strong position. All six of our Wave 1 projects are already under construction, with work progressing well. Our £9 billion Great Grid Partnership covering the delivery of the eight onshore projects within Wave 2 is now up and running with our seven strategic partners. And we're making great progress with the remaining three Wave 2 offshore projects where we've completed the contracting for Sealink and announced the preferred suppliers for Eagle 3 and 4 with contracts expected to be signed in the next few months. Once complete, we'll have secured the supply chain for all 17 ASTI projects, a significant achievement. And as a result, over three quarters of our £60 billion investment plan is now underpinned by delivery mechanisms, enabling us to ramp up our capital delivery. We've invested over £5 billion in the first half, another record for the group, and we remain on track to deploy over £11 billion of capital investment this year, in line with our guidance. The second area to highlight is the continued momentum we're seeing from both our regulatory and policy perspective. On the regulatory front, we've built on the strong foundations we set last year in the US, with around 75% of our five-year investment plan approved within our rate cases. We've also seen some important policy developments. As you know, New York State announced last year that it's likely to miss its target of 70% renewable generation by 2030. As a result, we've seen a shift in the last half towards an all-of-the-above approach when it comes to balancing clean energy goals with affordability and reliability. For example, in September, following submission of our long-term gas plan, the PRC issued an order supporting the proposed North East Supply Enhancement, or NESI, pipeline. If built, the capacity provided by the pipeline would materially enhance reliability and resilience, whilst also potentially reducing energy costs for New Yorkers by up to $6 billion. In the UK, I'll come to regulatory development shortly, but on the policy front, the government is continuing to look at different ways to support faster delivery of infrastructure and accelerate economic growth. Alongside their planning reform legislation targeted at large infrastructure projects, which should support delivery of projects in the 2030s, they've also launched consultations which include proposals to allow electricity distribution network operators to carry out simple reinforcement activities without full planning permission, and a revised fast-track consenting process. If implemented, this could have important benefits for future transmission projects. So it's clear we're seeing strong regulatory support for the investments we're making, as well as the policy progress to assist in the delivery of future projects. And then thirdly, the near-term actions we're taking to support load growth in the UK. We're working with the government and industry, including US big tech companies, as they seek to develop the UK's AI infrastructure, including the creation of data centres within AI growth zones, like the recently announced ones in Blythe and Cobalt Park. These projects represent tens of billions of pounds of investment in UK infrastructure and are evidence of the demand growth we forecast in our Rio T3 business plan, which is designed to connect up to 19 gigawatts of additional demand over the five years to March 2031, around half of which is expected to be connecting data centres. We're now working hard to facilitate these connections, including working with the government through the AI Energy Council to support the development of more AI growth zones so we can deliver the investment needed to meet growing energy requirements. So let me now turn to our financial performance, where we've delivered a strong set of results in the first half. On our underlying basis, that is excluding the impact of timing and exceptional items, operating profit was up 13% to £2.3 billion, reflecting increased regulatory revenues across our U.S. and U.K. electricity transmission businesses. This strong operating performance drove an increase in underlying earnings per share of 6% to 29.8 pence. As you've already heard, our business delivered a record £5.1 billion of investment of 12% year-on-year at constant currency. And in line with the policy, the Board has declared an interim dividend of 16.35 pence per share. Turning next to reliability and safety, I'm pleased to say reliability has remained strong across our UK and US networks over the first half of the year. As we look ahead to the winter, we're well prepared with winter readiness plans in place. The NISO recently published its Winter Outlook Report for the UK, in which they forecast electricity margins around 10% the highest since 2019. In the US, whilst we anticipate adequate electricity margins, Gas availability across the coldest days of winter remain a focus, especially in extreme weather events, and so our teams will work closely with upstream suppliers to mitigate any risks. And in July, the NISO published its report investigating the outage following the fire at our North Hyde substation, and we're working closely with the government, NISO, Ofgem and industry to progress the report's recommendations. Safety, as always, remains a critical focus across our business. In the last six months, our lost time injury frequency rate was 0.09 inside our group target. We continue to promote a culture of safety excellence including, for example, identifying new ways to enhance our safety protocols such as the use of digital job briefs to increase hazard recognition in the field. Moving now to our operating performance across the group, starting with electricity distribution. Capital investment increased by 17% to £756 million, reflecting increased asset replacement and load-related reinforcement activity. I'm pleased to say that we've now delivered over £100 million of Synergy savings, six months ahead of target from the UK electricity distribution acquisition in 2021. These synergies have been achieved through smarter procurement, operational efficiencies across our shared sites, and integration of support functions in the group, In October, we also saw the publication of Ofgem's sector-specific methodology consultation for Rio ED3, which builds on the foundations of the T3 framework. We welcome the fact that Ofgem has directed networks to use a long-term planning horizon. This will ensure that delivery of the next price control also takes into account investment drivers in the decades ahead, including load growth, asset health, resilience, and renewable generation. We've also made good progress on connections reform, including preparing flexible offers to customers that are likely to secure a queue position. This allows them to progress their projects ahead of a formal offer, enabling faster connections for renewables and low-carbon technologies. And finally, we continue to build our distribution system operator capabilities with the launch of the demand-turner flexibility market, incentivising increased demand as an alternative to curtailing generation. Moving to UK electricity transmission, where capital investment increased by 31% to £1.7 billion, including construction of new substations to support low growth, and progress on our £1 billion London Power Tunnels project, where we've now energised the first 2.5km between Hurst substation and Crayford. We've also been working hard to find innovative ways to expand system capacity. For example, we began work on a new substation in Uxbridge Moor, West London, with an innovative design which will have a 70% smaller footprint and avoids the use of SF6, a potent greenhouse gas. This substation will support over a dozen new data centres and is expected to deliver 1.8 gigawatts of new capacity equivalent to powering a mid-sized city. We've also leveraged the approach to procurement frameworks used in our strategic infrastructure business, including for example in July when we signed an £8 billion electricity transmission partnership with seven regional partners to deliver substation infrastructure across the UK transmission network. Turning to policy, we're working closely with NISO and customers to support customer connections reform. Once NISO publishes this updated queue, we'll have a clear view of the sequencing of the specific projects required, and we can then turn our efforts to meeting these connection dates at pace. On regulation, Oxygen published its draft determination for the Rio T3 framework in early July, with our response published in late August. This included changes we believe are needed to the baseline return and the incentives framework to allow high performing networks to achieve a globally competitive overall return. We've also proposed a number of refinements to streamline our funding mechanisms, enable us to recover the efficient cost of our investments and progress projects at a pace expected by our stakeholders. As you'd expect, we've engaged heavily with Ofgem at all levels of the organisation ahead of the final determination which is expected in early December. And we expect to take a decision in late February or early March, following the license drafting process. Turning now to strategic infrastructure. As you've heard, our focus has been to ramp up delivery of the Wave 1 ASTI projects, whilst also ensuring we're securing the supply chain and relevant consents for Wave 2. Specifically on our Wave 1 projects, examples of our progress include Our offshore Eagle 1 and 2 projects, where the cable manufacturing and site works for the Southern Converter Stations are underway. Our onshore Yorkshire Green upgrade project, where the last of eight 200-tonne transformers has now been delivered. And the North London reinforcement project, where we finished reconducting three circuits, installing over 190 kilometres of cables. We've also completed four public consultations this year, including the submission of two major development consent order applications, CLINC and Norwich to Tilbury, with both submissions now accepted by the Planning Inspectorate, a major milestone. On the regulatory front, we continue to engage with Ofgem to find a resolution to our request for a delay event on the Eagle One project, and are encouraged by the discussions to date. We expect these negotiations to reach a final decision over the next few months. Coming to the US and starting with New York, where we've continued to make strong progress across our operations. Capital investment reached £1.6 billion, up 5%, driven by an increase in range replacement expenditure. In addition, we've continued to make strong progress on our $4 billion upstate upgrade, including our SmartPath Connect transmission project, where our segment is on track to be ready to energise by the end of the year. and our Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, or CLCPA Phase 1 and 2 projects, where we expect the first round of permit approvals for the end of the calendar year. On the regulatory and policy front, in addition to the order from the PRC on the Nessie Pipeline and the approval of the Niagara-Mohawk joint proposal, we're also engaging on the draft New York State Energy Plan. Released earlier this year, the plan outlines long-term strategies to meet New York's energy needs, It emphasises the importance of infrastructure investment and recognises the enduring role of the gas network in maintaining reliability, affordability and security of supply. Once finalised later this year, the plan will influence future regulatory decisions and utility planning across the state. In New England, capital investment increased by 23% to £1 billion, reflecting increased spend on asset condition and system capacity in both electricity transmission and distribution, 220,000 smart meter installations, and the further rollout of our fault location isolation and service restoration program. We've also agreed partners for our strategic procurement framework, which will support over $3 billion of contracts over the next five years. And finally, on regulation and policy, we've agreed around $600 million of allowances under the electric sector modernization plan, largely focused on electric vehicle highway charging and IT infrastructure. and we're continuing to work with the Governor's Office to advance the Energy Affordability Bill. Moving to National Grid Ventures, capital investment was £69 million, supporting asset refurbishment across our Interconnector and US Generation portfolios. Operationally, we've had a strong six months, with our Interconnector fleet at 90% availability and our Generation fleet achieving 96% reliability. We've also progressed the Propel Transmission project through our Transco joint venture, where EPC contracts are now under development. Once complete, the project will help to deliver power from Long Island to the Bronx in New York City and Westchester County. We've also streamlined our portfolio, having completed the sale of national renewables in May and announced the sale of grain LNG in August. With all regulatory approvals received, we expect completion in the coming weeks. So let me stop there and hand over to Andy to walk you through the numbers before I come back to talk about our priorities for the second half. Andy.

Thank you John and good morning everyone. I'd like to highlight that as usual we're presenting our underlying results excluding timing, UK deferred tax and exceptional items and that all results are provided at constant exchange rates and less specified. So, starting with our overall performance in the first half. We've delivered strong results with underlying operating profits on a continuing basis at £2.3 billion, a 13% increase on the prior year, primarily driven by higher regulated revenues in UK electricity transmission, reflecting growth in the asset base, and higher revenues in our US regulated businesses following recent rate cases, partially offset by the sale of the electricity system operator last year. Strong operating profit growth, partially offset by higher finance costs, and a full impact in the half from the rights issue shares, has led to a 6% increase in earnings per share to 29.8 pence. We've continued to make good progress with our capital programme, with investment from continuing operations at £5.1 billion, another record level, and up 12% year over year. In line with our policy, the Board has declared an interim dividend of 16.35 pence per share, representing 35% of last year's full-year dividend. Moving now to our business segments, starting with UK electricity distribution. Underlying operating profit was £551 million, down £22 million versus the prior year, reflecting lower revenues due to headwinds from Ofgem's real price effects mechanism which more than offset the benefit of revenue indexation and recovery of higher Totex allowances and higher depreciation. In the period, we exceeded our cumulative three-year target of £100 million of Synergy benefits by FY26, six months ahead of schedule, through leveraging our increased buying power, delivering savings from integrating support functions, and working more efficiently at joint transmission and distribution sites across the UK. Capital investment was £756 million for the half year, an increase of £109 million compared to the prior period, primarily driven by higher asset replacement and refurbishment and higher load-related network reinforcement. In our UK electricity transmission business, underlying operating profit was £846 million, up £122 million compared with the prior period. A strong first-half performance was driven by higher allowed revenues, partially offset by higher depreciation. Capital investment was £1.7 billion, 31% higher than the prior period. This reflects our ongoing spend on substation build-out, as well as the significant step-up in investment on our ASTI projects and ASTI enabling works. Moving now to the US, where underlying operating profit for New York was £443 million, £167 million higher than the prior year, as a result of higher net revenue reflecting the growth of the business as we upgrade and reinforce our networks, and the recovery of previously unremunerated costs following recent rate case updates. This was partially offset by increased depreciation reflecting a higher asset base, and higher costs including property taxes and environmental provisions. Capital investment was £1.6 billion, which was £82 million higher than the prior year, from a further step up in the pace of our mains replacement activity under our downstate gas rate case and increased spend on smart meters, partially offset by lower costs on SmartPath Connect as we near completion of this project. In New England, underlying operating profit was £292 million, £65 million higher than the prior period, following higher revenues reflecting our growing asset base and improved incentive performance, partly offset by higher depreciation and other investment-related costs as we ramp up the capital programme. Capital investment was £958 million, £178 million higher than the prior year. This was driven by increased asset condition and system capacity investments and smart meter installations, partly offset by reduced mains replacement work. Moving to National Grid Ventures, where the underlying contribution was £227 million including joint ventures. The increase of £19 million compared to the prior year was primarily due to the benefit of depreciation having ceased in grain LNG following its classification as held for sale. This accounting treatment for grain, along with the sale of National Grid renewables, drove a reduction in capital investment to £69 million. And our other activities reported an operating loss of £27 million, £11 million lower than the prior period Principally driven by lower insurance costs and the non-repeat of fair value losses in the National Grid Partners portfolio. Turning to financing costs and tax, net finance costs were £678 million, an increase of 4% compared with the prior year, due to higher average net debt and the impact of higher inflation on indexed linked debt. The underlying effective tax rate before joint ventures was 11.3%, 60 basis points lower than the prior year, principally due to the benefit of higher capital allowances in our UK regulated businesses and a change in the profit mix. Underlying earnings were £1.5 billion, up 16%, with earnings per share at 29.8 pence. On cash flow, cash generated from continuing operations was £3.6 billion, up 35% compared to the prior year. This increase is driven by improved profitability across the UK and US and favourable movements in working capital. In total, net debt increased by £1.5 billion to £41.8 billion in the period, with strong cash inflows from operations and the £1.5 billion of National Grid renewables sale proceeds helping to offset the continued growth in capital investment. For the full year, we expect net debt to increase by around £1 billion from the half year, including the grain sale proceeds and assuming a US$1.35 exchange rate. As John said earlier, we continue to make significant progress in capital delivery, securing the supply chain and advancing our regulatory and policy agenda. As I've previously set out, our plans were designed to be robust against a range of outcomes with respect to interest and exchange rates, and I remain confident in our ability to deliver in line with our five-year framework. Turning to forward guidance, and we've included detailed guidance for the full year in our results statement as usual. Following strong performance over the first half of the year, we expect a modestly higher underlying EPS relative to our guidance in May. The impact of a weaker US dollar and a slightly higher share count due to scrip uptake is expected to be more than offset by improved operating performance in the regulated businesses and slightly lower financing costs. With that, I'll hand you back to John.

Many thanks, Andy. Now, before we move to Q&A, I want to spend the final few minutes setting our priorities for the remainder of the year as we continue to invest across our networks. Starting in the U.S. and New York, where we have a number of priorities, including further work with the state on its energy plan to shape a roadmap that balances decarbonization, affordability, and reliability. Ongoing work with Williams in our role as the sole off-taker of the NACI pipeline, as they look to secure regulatory approvals, which are expected later this year. and preparing for our downstate New York gas filing due for submission next spring, ensuring we're able to continue to invest in safety and reliability while supporting customer needs and managing affordability. In Massachusetts, our priorities include filing our gas distribution rate case, which is now planned for January, to allow us more time to engage with new stakeholders and propose measures aligned with evolving state policy goals. Working with the state on its affordability bill and producing our climate compliance plan, an important enabler of the cleaner energy transition. Turning to the UK, in electricity transmission our priorities are clear. To engage with Ofgem to deliver a Rio T3 framework that allows high performing networks to achieve a globally competitive overall return and mechanisms that enable us to deliver at the scale and pace required. Work with the AI Energy Council as part of our efforts to collaborate across the energy and tech industries. And build on the good progress we've made in ramping up construction across our Wave 1 ASTI projects, whilst also engaging closely with stakeholders and communities as we progress our development consent orders. In electricity distribution, our key priority is preparing our response to the Rio ED3 sector-specific methodology consultation ahead of Ofgem's decision expected in the spring. And in National Grid Ventures, we have two key priorities, developing and winning new competitive transmission opportunities in the US, including an ISO-led opportunity in New England, and closing the sale of grain LNG, completing our announced divestments. Now, before we take your questions, as this is my last results presentation, I want to reflect briefly on the journey I've been privileged to be part of over the past 10 years. It's been a truly transformative decade for National Grid. When I presented my first set of results back in 2016, the business looked very different with the majority of our operations in gas. Today, we're over three quarters electric, a fundamental shift that reflects the successful portfolio repositioning that has enabled us to pivot towards growth and a geographical footprint that is more balanced across the UK and the US. I'm incredibly proud of how we've responded as an organisation to meet the needs of our customers by delivering extraordinary organic growth. We've deployed nearly three times the level of capital investment compared to 2016, and the growth in regulated asset base is expected to be over 10% this year compared to just 4% a decade ago. Our business is incredibly strong, giving me huge confidence in National Grid's ability to continue to deliver a compelling investment proposition. Beyond the numbers, I'm very proud to be handing over an organisation where our values and the critical role we play for our customers are the driving force of our ambitions. Zoe is the right person to lead National Grid into this next chapter and I know she will find the clarity of our mission, the scale of the opportunities ahead to be a source of strength in the years to come. So let me stop there and give you the opportunity to ask Andy and I any questions. Okay, so we've got lots of questions, so I'm going to perhaps start with Pavin from JP Morgan, and then after Pavin, perhaps I could ask Sarah from Morgan Stanley to ask her a question. So, Pavin, if we could have your question, please.

Hi, team. Good morning, and thank you for your presentation. And, John, I just wanted to congratulate you on the results you've delivered during your leadership and wish you all the best for your future beyond National Grid.

So I've got two questions, please.

Firstly, on T3 expectations, can you give a bit more color on your dialogue with Ofgem, looking at particularly some of the data points we've had earlier this year on the UK water CMA provisional determinations and on size well, do you foresee upward pressure on the return on equity? And then my second question is on net debt and the net debt guidance looks better for the full year than in May, even accounting for the proceeds of disposals. You highlighted the working capital effect in your speech. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on the drivers of this and whether it's a sort of... That is something that should persist into the future years, just trying to get an idea of the basis. Thank you.

Thanks Pavan. Let me do question one, then I'll hand over to Andy to do question two. And thank you for your kind remarks. But in terms of Rio T3, if I just take you back to our response to the draft determination, In that, we said very clearly to Ofgem there were two fundamental areas that we wanted to focus on between the draft determination and the final determination. The first was the overall investable framework and the second was the workability of the regulatory framework. In terms of the investment framework itself, you would have seen in our draft determination that we made the argument that we believe the overall return needs to be comparable with what we'd see internationally. and therefore based on what was in the draft determination we set out that we felt that the base return should be higher. I think given what we've seen in the provisional CMA decision on water and things like size well I think that reinforces some of the arguments that we've made. We also said as part of the financial package that we needed a lot more detail on the incentives and that's been an area of focus since we made that response to the draft determination with Ofgem at all levels of the organisation. In addition to the financial framework, we also said we needed a framework that was actually deliverable. And in particular what we meant by that was given the scale of the capex that we need to deliver, We need to have the ability to be able to make decisions quickly and then to move nimbly through the process, in particular in terms of when OFTIM sets the allowances and actually agrees that the projects are needed, that it aligns with the development framework for the projects. So that has been the focus, as you can imagine, with, what, four weeks to go. There continues to be a lot of dialogue, but the dialogue remains in those two broad categories. And with that, I'll hand to Andy.

Yeah. Hi Pavan, thanks. So you remember back at year end we guided to an increase in net debt of around 6 billion, but that was before you take account, as you say, of any of the transaction proceeds. By the time you allow for the two disposals and the FX movement that we've seen, it's a relatively small difference, net difference compared to the sort of the 1.5 billion increase that we're now guiding to, after you take account of all of that. And that small difference is a combination of the slightly higher script uptake that we've seen over the summer, and as you say, a little bit of working capital, but it's relatively small in the context of our balance sheet. So I don't see that as being a significant sort of enduring shift.

Thanks, Andy. So shall I go to Sarah from Morgan Stanley next, and then perhaps Mark Freshney from UBS after that? Sarah?

Thank you very much. Firstly, a very big welcome, Zoe. It's always nice to hear another Aussie accent. And, John, another very big thank you to you and wishing you all the best in the next chapter. So two questions from me, please, and actually they're both on UK electricity distribution. So firstly on the ED operational Rory performance please, just wondering any further colour you can provide on how that's tracking against this year's 50 basis points guide and then as we look forward anything further you can please add on that pathway back to the 100 basis points. And then quickly a bit more on last month's SSMC for ED. Completely appreciate very early days, but wondering if you can add a bit more on your thoughts, please, if there was anything that surprised you in the document, or mostly, as you already mentioned, mainly just building on what we've already seen through the ET process. Thank you.

Yeah, thanks, Sarah. I mean, in terms of the operational performance of ED, I'd say it's very much on track to where we expect it to be at the half year. As you would have seen in the results, we continue to get the impact of the real price effects that we talked about in May, but we are seeing improved performance this year, so we're on track and are guiding towards the 50 basis points of our performance this year, and we remain of the view that we'll get closer to the 100 basis points by the end of ED2. So that is very consistent with what we said in May, and the performance of the first six months is sort of reinforcing that. In terms of the sector-specific methodology consultation, I'd say it's very broad, which I think is a good thing at this stage. It very much aligned with our expectations. I think we were particularly pleased to see the Optima set out that they intend to take a very long-term strategic view of distribution going forward over multiple price control periods, and that ED3 will be set in that context. I think we were also pleased to see that in the document they talked about the need for the investment and distribution to stay ahead of the needs of customers. So given that we're expecting to see an increase in EVs and heat pumps and those types of things, then I think we were pleased to see that. It was very consistent in terms of its messaging, in terms of the need for an investable proposition, and also that the incentives for things like innovation would be important. Broadly, I'd say it met our expectations. It's very broad and I think it's given us a landscape in which we can respond quite sensibly in time for the decision in the spring. Okay, so if I can move to Mark at UBS and then perhaps after Mark we can take Dominic from Barclays. So, Mark.

Hey, John. Congratulations and looking forward to seeing what you'll be doing next. I have two questions. Firstly, looking back over the last two or three Ofgem price controls, do you feel that Ofgem have given you allowances that are sufficient for you to do all of the maintenance that you would have liked to have done? And just secondly, on infrastructure in general, I mean, National Grid has been the center of capital delivery in the UK at a time when there wasn't much of it around. Clearly, the government has been clear we're not going to cut capital investment in the UK. We're going to keep going. What do you think the UK needs to do to get all of this capex done, not just in your area, but across the whole piece?

Thank you Mark. So in terms of the context of the last two or three price controls and have we had sufficient allowances, I think the blunt answer to that is yes. When I look at the outcomes, which are probably the most important thing, we've continued to deliver world-class reliability at 99.69 as you know I quote quite often. But also, if I just take a broader perspective and look at the number of unplanned outages we have on the network, so unexpected failures of assets today compared to 10 years ago, that actually it's about half as many today. So actually the overall health of the network looks very resilient and strong and therefore I think we have had sufficient maintenance capex to do the work that we need to do. Obviously as we look to 2.3 that continues to be dialogue with Ofgem as we get towards the FD but certainly in the past I think we've got a network that's reliable and resilient and when I look at the data suggests that it's in a strong position. In terms of infrastructure, the broader question, I mean For me, I think the things that are important, Mark, I think there's bipartisan recognition that infrastructure investment is a key enabler of economic growth in the UK. In order to do that efficiently, having stable and predictable fiscal and regulatory frameworks is really important and something that we focused on. I think we still like to see more done around the planning regime in the UK. The planning legislation is going through and I think that will streamline the process but I do think there is more opportunity to do more so that the infrastructure can be built more efficiently and more quickly to enable that economic growth. So for me I think those are two things that are really important. Okay, let me move on to Dominic and then perhaps after Dominic we could do Ahmed at Jeffrey. So Dominic, would you like to answer your question?

Yes, good morning. And again, thank you, John, for your sort of decade as CEO and 30-ish years at Grid and also to welcome Zoe to the role. I wish you all the best for the future. Two questions for me, please. Firstly, there's clearly a UK government focus on some sort of affordability. And within that, I think the Select Committee last week brought up network windfalls again. And I think Ofgem are now meant to sort of consult on this by, I think, beginning of 2026. So if you could give us an update on whether this select committee recommendation will change Ofgem's point of view on network windfalls. And secondly, on the $35 billion of Totex that you had in your draft for Rio T3, there's clearly a lot of uncertainty around that. I think NISO is publishing a new connection regime shortly, And I was hoping that you could provide us color as to actually what you expect to be in it, like what's going to change, and how much clarity will that actually put onto the TOTEX number that will get published in the FD on our department, how much of that already can be secured. Thank you.

Yes, thanks Dominic. So in terms of the Select Committee last week, actually it was an issue that had already been looked at. So just to be clear, the work that we've done demonstrates that we've certainly not received any windfall profits. The analysis that they were talking about the Select Committee I think was a snapshot looking at expected inflation versus actual inflation. But if you look at it over the medium to long term, then it's very clear that there is no windfall profit. So I think that was the debate that was going on there. Ofgem, as you know, have already looked at this issue and have concluded that it's not in consumers' interest to reopen it. So from that perspective, and I think Ofgem actually responded to the consultation by saying they've already looked at it as well. So the consultation you mentioned for next spring, actually I don't think it's got anything to do with the windfall I actually think it's to do with the way that network charges are allocated through the standing charge for suppliers, and I think it's that that Ofgem are looking at, so rather than the windfall profits. In terms of the 35 billion Totex you referenced, so just to be clear, so when we submitted the business plan for Rio 23, we said that over that five-year period, we could spend up to 35 billion, depending on basically how quickly connections come forward. The 35 billion was split out into sort of baseline capex which included the traditional reliability, resilience, asset health as well as those projects we had absolute certainty on but it then had a significant amount of capex that would be linked to the speed by which connections come forward. What we're expecting to see over the next period is new connection offers will go out to those customers that are classed as protected which means they've got planning consents and have started construction for connections in 27-28 in January next year. For those for 29-30 it'll go out in Q2 and for those beyond 2030 in Q3. So I think we're going to get a sort of a lifting of the mist over the course of next year as to exactly what connections are going to be delivered within the Rio T3 period. We know to a large extent where the primary spines of investment are. What the connections reform process will do will allow us to specifically know which substations in which locations are going to be invested. So I think we'll get a better view as we move through the course of next year, but it's going to take a little bit of time. Thank you. Okay, so I'm going to move on to Ahmed at Jefferies and then Harry at BNP. So, Ahmed.

Hi John, thank you for taking my question and thank you from my side as well and a warm welcome to Zoe in her new role. John, a few questions, maybe just starting out with on the T3 process, one of the other things you talked about in your response to the DD Both the workability and the simplifying of the funding framework and re-opening decision making. Could you give us a sense of how's the debate been on that front? And if you have been, if you're confident you'll be able to achieve the improvements you're seeking. Another topic that's been, I think, in the press and among stakeholders is, you know, Thank you very much. You know, achieving offshore wind development targets in the UK, either T3, OT, or more medium term. And then finally, just one for Andy. Andy, could you just give us a little bit more on the drivers for the upgrade, or modest upgrade, as you sort of call it, for the FY26 outlook you referenced, regulated, better performance in regulated businesses. I'd just love to understand that better. Thank you.

Yeah, thanks, Armand. So starting with the first question on the workability. So this was one of the areas that we focused on in our response to the draft determination. I mean, in simple terms, as I said to Dominic's answer, quite a bit of the capex is going to be agreed as we move through the price control period. So as big projects are defined, then we have to go through a process of agreeing with Ofgem, the pre-engineering, then Ofgem agreeing that it's the right project to move forward, and ultimately agreeing the allowances. And for us, what's really important is that those regulatory decisions dovetail and align with the project development timescale so that we're not left in a position where either we're having to spend in advance of getting the approval from Ofgem that it's the right project, and or we're having to wait for clarity on what the allowances are. So it's very much about the workability of the framework and making sure that we've got a good drumbeat with Ofgem to allow us to deliver, you know, what is a significant level of capex at speed and at pace. So that has been, you know, a lot of discussions have been had since the draft determination at the working level to make sure we've got the right framework and of course we'll wait to see whether we've got the right place at the FD at the beginning of December. In terms of AR7 and the offshore wind auction, I think I'll go back to what we said in May, just to remind people that to a large extent we are relatively insensitive to what happens in the offshore wind auctions because Ofgem had already taken the decision that for the ASTI projects we have a licence obligation to deliver them. and that it's in consumer's interest to progress those projects sort of independent of what the timescales are and that's partly because of course there's an expectation that not only will it enable the flow of increased energy across the network but it will also reduce what is an expected significant increase in constraint costs of around 12 billion pounds so we don't see a huge amount of sensitivity between our 60 billion pound five-year plan and AR7. And then finally on question three I'll look to Andy.

Yeah, thanks, Ahmed. In terms of the guidance, I think we said it versus our original guidance at the start of the year. We've obviously seen the two headwinds, firstly from the dollar movement. So we're now guiding at 135 for the remainder of the year, which is, as you know, a small headwind. And secondly, with a slightly higher script uptake, there's an element of EPS dilution from that for the full year. But there's more than offset by stronger operating performance from across the group. Actually, I wouldn't call out any particular business unit. It's from across our regulated businesses. And all that means that it puts us in a net or modest upgrade position compared to our original guidance when we look ahead to the full year.

Okay, thank you, Andy. I'm going to go to Harry at BNP and then James at Deutsche. So, Harry, we have your question, please.

Thanks, John, and I'll add my congratulations and all the best and also hello to Zoe. So two questions, please. So the first one is on the U.S., Now, you just have a slew of Democrat election wins and the New York mayor race dominated by affordability and the cost of living. I think you've been quite clear in the past that in the U.S. you are sheltered from this debate because regulation is done at the state level, etc. But if there was a federal move to clamp down on energy prices in the U.S. ahead of the midterms, where do you think the pain is? Thank you very much. The second one is on T3. So looking at your consensus around the time that the draft determinations came out, there's a several P uptick in expectations for FY27, which is I think all of us looking at the fast money numbers and the off-gen models and concluded that that might bump your revenue for next year. How comfortable do you feel with that? If we just take what we've had in the draft determinations, and clearly we'll get more in December and things might look different, but if we're just looking at what we've got in the draft, do you think we are collectively, as sell-side analysts, being conservative enough here, and do you think that there is a rational reason that EPS might be higher next year because of the fast money? Thank you.

Thanks, Harry. Let me take the first question and I'll ask Andy to take the second. Probably just a sort of broader answer to the specifics as well, which is So first of all, we're very conscious of the affordability debate, not just in the US and the UK. So we always take that massively into account when we think about price controls and rate cases in the UK and the US. With regards to the mayor election, just to put that into context as well. So for New York City, they are our largest customer for our downstate gas business. We have a huge amount of interaction with them, particularly on the construction programs, because quite often, We're cities where the city's doing work we have to move our pipelines for example so they're a key stakeholder and like any key stakeholder we will engage with them to make sure we understand how we're working together but also what their aspirations are around and we understand that affordability is a big issue but ultimately for national grids you know things like our capex plans and affordability sit at the state level and as you saw last year we were very successful in agreeing with the regulator at the state level a three-year plan for NIMO of $5.6 billion which will take us right through to 2028. In terms of the sort of interaction between state and federal, I mean for utility rates then obviously federal today don't have any jurisdiction so I think in terms of the affordability debate it would still sit at the state level We need to be very mindful of that, and the way we approach that as National Grid is, you know, when we look to do a rate case, and we'll do this when we do Kedling-Kedney in the coming months, we'll first reach out to all our key stakeholders and understand what are their expectations, what do they want from National Grid, and how does that fit in the envelope of affordability, and quite often that will shape the capital plan that we put forward as part of our rate case. We'll also spend a significant amount of time thinking about our vulnerable customers. So you might remember in our NIMO rate case, for example, we set aside $290 million to support most vulnerable customers. And of course, we're always trying to drive the efficiency of the business through innovation as well to find more efficient ways of delivering what we need from customers. So I think for all those reasons, that's what we'll continue to do. We'll engage with stakeholders and think very carefully about what that rate case looks like in the envelope of affordability. From a federal perspective, I mean, I think I'll reflect on what we've seen over the last 12 months, which is, you know, one of the key focus areas in New York, for example, has been how do you address the wholesale prices? And you would have seen that the PSC has indicated they're supportive of the NACI pipeline. Based on the analysis that we did on the Manessi pipeline, not only does it improve resilience and reliability in New York, but it increases the volume of supply by about 14% and potentially has about $6 billion of benefit for New Yorkers. So I think there's an interaction between federal government when you get into things like transmission pipelines and the states that I suspect will continue to be a focus going forward. Andy, please.

Yeah. Harry, thanks for the question. Yeah, I think obviously this morning you'll have heard that we've reaffirmed our five-year frame guidance, 3 to 29. And you remember when we originally set out that guidance, it was deliberately designed to be robust to a range of different outcomes as well. So I think it's important to take that into account. Clearly at this stage, as you've heard from John a couple of times now, our focus is working with Ofgem to ensure that we get to an appropriate final determinations and that will be the point that will determine whether there is further guidance to be given and that will be the point that we would do that. The other thing I just mentioned, of course, at this stage we're also, one of the topics we talk too often about is the profiling of any increases of revenue and how they fall across the five years of the price control. So that's something else that will be part of the mix that we'll be looking at.

Thanks, Harry. I'm going to move on to James at Deutsche and then perhaps we can go to Deeper at Bernstein after that.

Yeah, hi, it's James Brand from Deutsche. Thanks for taking my questions. Also congrats to John and also to Zoe and, you know, good luck for the future. I have two questions. The first is on demand. So you said that you were kind of positioning yourselves to be ready to connect up to 19 gigawatts of additional demand. Obviously, that would be absolutely huge, particularly if it was all heat demand. What's your realistic expectation for how much demand growth we might see over the next five years? I know there's a lot of data center connection requests, but how much do you think we can realistically expect to be added on the data center side? Maybe that's a difficult question to answer, but any thoughts around that would be super interesting. And then the second question is on You know, coming back again to the energy affordability debate in the UK, it's obviously the kind of noise around that has increased quite substantially. How do you view your own positioning in regards to that debate? I guess potentially reasonably well protected given that you'll have the transmission price control locked in pretty shortly, and you can argue that, you know, the investments there are cutting your curtailment costs quite substantially. But, you know, longer term, is this a bit Thank you.

Okay, thanks James. Let me start with the demand question. So a little bit of context, so because a lot of the demand, a lot of the excitement is coming through the potential connection of data centres. So today about 2.6% of all the demand that we have in the UK comes from data centres. You may have seen that NISO does its future energy scenarios and it was projecting that that could increase to about 9% by 2035. What we've seen over the last 12 months is quite a surge of requests for connections to the transmission network to support data centers and generative AI. So in our real T3 plans, our assumption is that we're expecting to see about demand growth of around about 19 gigawatts, or we're going to build the network out to support that. I think it works out at about 4% growth in demand per annum. and about half of that is assumed to be for data center demand and that's backed up by the connection agreements that have been signed in the time frames for Rio 23. So I think we feel comfortable that we've got a reasonably good handle on what the demand is going to do over the next five years or so and a reasonably good handle on what's been expected in terms of growth in data center demand and where it will connect. And of course you may have seen National Grid is working with the government through the AI Council to really identify where are the best locations in the UK to locate those data centres based on, you know, where's their access, their capacity today, or where the time frames for connections would be shorter than other places, which is an important determinant for data centres. In terms of energy affordability, I think when we stand back from our position, yes, we see an increase in the transmission element of the charge as we deliver out all these Astri projects and the Rio 23 CapEx, but actually against the expected constraint cost, net-net, it's a reduction. So in a way, us getting on with the investment is very beneficial to consumers because it ultimately reduces the cost for them. Having said that, we're very mindful that affordability is a significant issue, which is why in our business plan we set out why it's important to have incentives around innovation to drive efficiency, and indeed why we proposed an efficiency measure as well. So we're very mindful of it, we're very conscious that it's a difficult time for customers, but in terms of the transmission element of the bill, I'd say we're very focused on making sure we can deliver the infrastructure to relieve those constraint costs which result in a net-net reduction. Thank you so much. Okay, I'm going to move to Deepa and then to Marcin at BOFA. So, Deepa, should we take your question?

Thank you for taking my question. So, John, first of all, thank you so much for your service for all these years and all the best for the next steps and really a warm welcome. So, my two questions. First one is on the Realty3 draft. Where do you see the risk reward on the incentives? So not the financial returns, that's very clear. You want it to be higher than what's there. But as things stand right now, where do you see the risk reward and how close is that to the 200 bits or so you would need in order to get closer to that 10% overall nominal return? And in your discussion so far with Ofgem, what's your sense on, you know, are we moving in the right direction, taking the feedback into account? So that's my first question. And the second one, I noticed that you are looking at U.S. transmission opportunities. And, you know, I think this is something that used to be talked about a long time back. Nothing's ever happened about it. So has there anything changed in the U.S. transmission landscape that is making you look at that again? And again, how big could this opportunity be? Thank you.

Yeah, thanks Deepa. I guess I put the innovation in the context of the incentives framework which I think is really important to help me get to an overall return that we think is appropriate given the scale of investment going forward. So actually the work that we've been doing with OFTI is focusing on sort of four key incentives. One is being incentivized to make available the connection capacity that customers want in a timely fashion. Secondly, it's about delivering the major projects as quickly as possible and being incentivized against that in the same way as we are for the ASTI projects. Thirdly is looking at how we can reduce the cost of constraints in our role as the transmission operator working with the system operator. And we've done some of that in the existing price control. We think there's opportunity for more of that as we move forward. And then thirdly, sorry, fourthly is the incentives as well. So we've been having conversations with Ofgem about that to really to find a framework that ideally Allows us to look for opportunities to extend new technologies onto the network in a way that will reduce cost for customers. So if I give you an example, so dynamic ratings is a good example that we've started to deploy in our transmission business in the UK. It is new technology, it allows you to get more power down the line without having to build new lines and we think those types of incentives are going to be really important if we're going to get to the overall package that works. But we're thinking about those four incentives as a package and innovation is a key one within that. In terms of the US opportunities, you might recall when we refined the strategy in May last year, we talked about the fact that our focus was going to be Thank you very much. from Maine down to New England that will help to reduce bills for New England customers that the ISO is doing a solicitation on. So we're looking at that as a project. It's obviously in a region that we're very familiar with and understand very clearly and obviously we've got good capabilities in National Grid Ventures. So we are seeing some solicitations for competitive transmission in the US and as part of the National Grid Ventures business we are looking at them very carefully. We will only take them forward as we said in the past if You know, we could get to a view that we're sensibly positioned to be able to win them and earn sensible returns, but that is one that's specifically on the short-term horizon at the moment. So, Marcin, if we could go to you next, I think that's the last question that I've got.

All right, well, yes, thank you so much and congratulations on the results and all the best. For the future, I actually wanted to come back to this topic of potentially new opportunities in transmission in the U.S. that you referenced. Could that be something that is material in terms of investment and in terms of capex? And presumably that would come on top of your existing guidance of 60 billion sterling. So could you just give us some perspective as to how relevant And question number two, just on hybrid bonds, we have not really seen any hybrid issuance, I believe, so is that still part of your financing toolbox? Thank you.

Yeah, thanks. Morning, Martin. So on the transmission opportunities, as John said, you know, we're in the early stages of looking at these. And, you know, so we'll have to wait and see how that may or may not grow as we go forwards. But I remind you, if you go back to the financing strategy we set out in detail when we did the equity raise 18 months ago, We were very clear that where we do see incremental opportunities, particularly in our ventures business, that might take us above the $60 billion, we would need to look for ways to finance those through the ventures business as well, in terms of potential partnering, other types of off-balance sheet finance and other routes, etc. So it wouldn't impact our delivery or use of the equity proceeds to underpin the $60 billion. And that remains absolutely the case today. In terms of hybrid, you're right. And again, when we made our financing strategy announcements 18 months ago, we were very clear that we wouldn't expect to issue any hybrid for several years. Again, that remains the case. Hybrids remain a very useful potential tool to us. We have a lot of unused hybrid capacity. At this stage, we don't have anything in the near term as you'd expect, but it will remain a tool that we can deploy appropriately later if we think that's the right thing to do.

Thank you Andy. So I don't have any further questions so let me just wrap up by just saying I guess summary of our half year results is good operational and financial performance in the last six months. I think we're very well positioned for the second half and hopefully taken away from today's presentation. We're very much on track. to deliver the £60 billion over the five years, 18 months in. This is my last results presentation. I'd like to say I'm just incredibly proud of the organisation, what it's achieved over the last decade, but I'm also delighted to be handing over to Zoe, who I think is going to be an incredible CEO. So thank you everybody for joining us today, and I'll see some of you very soon.