Sunoco LP

Greetings and welcome to the Sunoco LP's 2020 fourth quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Scott Grischow, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me this morning are Joe Kim, Sunoco LP's President and Chief Executive Officer, Karl Fails, Chief Operations Officer, Dylan Bramhall, Chief Financial Officer, and other members of the management team. A reminder that today's call will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include expectations and assumptions regarding the partnership's future operations and financial performance, including expectations and assumptions related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Actual results could differ materially and the partnership undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. Please refer to our earnings release as well as our filings with the SEC for a list of these factors. During today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow as adjusted. Please refer to the Sunoco LP website for reconciliation of each financial measure. For the fourth quarter of 2020, the partnership recorded net income of $83 million, adjusted EBITDA, was $159 million compared to $168 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Volumes of 1.8 billion gallons were relatively unchanged from the third quarter but remained down about 12% from levels seen a year ago. Fuel margin was 9.2 cents per gallon and included approximately $8 million of one-time write-offs associated with prior period fuel tax and inventory-related items. Fourth quarter margin also included approximately $9 million of unfavorability related to inventory valuation and associated hedges. For the full year 2020, the impact of this inventory valuation and hedging activity resulted in approximately $2 million of margin favorability. Karl will elaborate further on our fuel margin in his remarks. Fourth quarter distributable cash flows adjusted was $97 million, yielding a coverage ratio of 1.1 times. We ended the full year 2020 with a coverage ratio of 1.5 times. On January 28th, we declared an 82.55 cents per unit distribution, the same as last quarter. The proven resiliency of our business and history of delivering results has allowed us to maintain a stable and secure distribution for our unit holders. I will now turn the call over to Dylan to discuss the full year results. Thanks, Scott.

We continue to deliver strong results in 2020 despite the challenges of the COVID pandemic and fully expect to continue building on this strong performance in 2021 and beyond. First off, I'd like to highlight some of our accomplishments for 2020 before walking through the 2021 guidance that we unveiled in December. Our full year 2020 accomplishments include the following. Adjusted EBITDA of $739 million, a record for Sun and up 11% from 2019 levels. Distributable cash flow is adjusted with $517 million, also a record for Sun, and up 14% from 2019. We improved our already strong coverage ratio to 1.5 times, up from 1.3 times in both 2018 and 2019. Our cost reduction initiatives resulted in total operating expenses of $448 million which was a reduction of 11% from 2019 levels. Our fuel margin increased 1.8 cents per gallon from 2019 to 11.9 cents per gallon. We successfully refinanced our four and seven eighths senior notes due 2023 with new four and a half percent senior notes due 2029, thereby lowering interest expense while significantly extending the weighted average maturity of our debt. For reference, our nearest senior note debt maturity is now the 2026 senior notes. And finally, we improved our leverage to 4.18 times or 4.1 times when adjusted for total cash on hand from 4.6 times at the end of 2019. Our liquidity remains strong with an undrawn $1.5 billion revolving credit facility and $97 million in cash at year end. With all these accomplishments as the backdrop, we enter 2021 poised to continue to deliver strong results. In December, we provided guidance for 2021 for adjusted EBITDA of between $725 and $765 million. Underpinning this guidance are the following. Fuel volumes in a range of 7.25 to 7.75 billion gallons, annual fuel margin between 11 and 12 cents per gallon, total operating expenses of between $440 and $450 million, maintenance capital of $45 million, and growth capital of at least $120 million. The free cash flow generating capability of this business allows us to focus on the pillars of our capital allocation strategy. First, to maintain a stable and secure distribution for our unit holders. Second, to protect our balance sheet through debt pay down when prudent. And third, to pursue disciplined investment in our growth opportunities. We will be financially disciplined with a target coverage ratio of 1.4 times, which is up from our prior target of 1.2 times, and a target leverage ratio of 4 times, which is down from our prior target of 4.5 to 4.75 times. I'd like to conclude my remarks by saying that Sunoco established a strong financial footing early on in 2020, and this continues to carry through as we enter 2021. With that, I will now turn the call over to Karl to walk you through some additional thoughts on fuel gross profit and expenses. Karl?

Thanks, Dylan. Good morning, everyone. Scott and Dylan walked you through the numbers for the quarter and the full year. I want to take a few minutes and give you a sense of how we view these results and what kind of insight they give us into 2021. Let's start by talking about volume. On the surface, our fourth quarter results were very similar to the third quarter. There are a few additional factors though that we view as promising. First, during our last conference call, I shared the volumes were off around 12% for October. When we moved into November and December, we all experienced some additional restrictions on travel and business activity with the increase in COVID cases across the country. Even with those additional restrictions, Our volumes held and we finished the quarter at about the same level relative to the prior year. The second factor is around J.C. Nolan volumes. Last quarter, I explained that our J.C. Nolan diesel volumes were off much more than the rest of our business. We were also lapping the startup of the pipeline in the third quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter, this was an even bigger impact since we were comparing against a full period of pipeline operation. Year-over-year JC Nolan volume reductions accounted for 3% of total volume for the fourth quarter. So that would put our volumes down only 9% if you remove the impact of JC Nolan. My final thought on volumes provides some insight into one of the reasons for the solid performance, which is our ability to add new customers. Starting last summer, We started ramping back up our growth focus on signing up new customers and we are starting to see that in our Q4 numbers and that will carry forward into 2021. The bottom line is that we see our volumes continue to grow through the rest of this year, both from overall economic recovery and our own growth efforts. Moving over to margins, the market continues to support stronger margins. Let me give you some perspective on our reported margins for the fourth quarter. First, we saw a challenging market environment with a fairly steady and relentless climb in RBOB prices for most of the quarter. If you look back at our history, that would have likely resulted in margins close to $0.09 a gallon, maybe even dipping a little lower. Fast forward to the post-COVID environment and the floor is higher, which is what our fourth quarter results look like after you account for the one-time adjustments and inventory timing impacts that Scott mentioned. As we have stated before, the higher break-even environment for many industry participants, both in the wholesale and retail channels, helps support the higher margin floor. As we look to the first quarter, we have continued to see a steady rise in RBOB prices, putting pressure on margins, and we still feel like a floor in the 9.5 to 10 cent range is reasonable for these tough market environments, excluding one-time issues in the quarter. We already discussed some one-time items for the fourth quarter and we expect a 7-11 catch-up payment in the first quarter that will provide a boost to our base margins. Finally, I want to provide some more color around our expense performance. For the last few years, we've been extremely focused on looking hard at what it takes to efficiently run our business. When COVID hit, we took an even deeper look and made some tough choices. Our expense performance in the third and fourth quarters show that we are able to operate at these levels. There will always be some fluctuations in timing and there were a few favorable one-time impacts in the fourth quarter that brought the expenses down even a little further than our run rate. But the takeaway is that we have continued to deliver on our expense commitments and are very comfortable with our guidance for this year. Before I turn it over to Joe to share some closing thoughts, I just want to reemphasize that the fundamentals of our business remain strong. We continue to add volume to our network, margins are solid, and our expense focus falls directly to the bottom line.

Joe?

Thanks, Karl. Good morning, everyone. We delivered very strong results in 2020. We came into 2020 financially healthy, and we finished the year stronger than where we started. While countless companies had significant financial difficulties, Our 2020 results demonstrate the resiliency of our business model. Last year, we delivered record EBITDA and DCF. Over the last three years, we have steadily improved our coverage while at the same time decreasing our leverage ratio. Looking forward, we expect to have another good year. We're about a month and a half into the new year and both fuel volume and RBOB costs continue to rise. Since early November, both gasoline and diesel prices have steadily increased. Over that time period, New York Harbor RBOB has gone up around 75 cents per gallon. As you know, this is not the most conducive margin environment. With that said, there are other important factors to consider. Industry break-evens are higher. We're seeing this play out as the market continues to pass on price increases to the RACs and to the street. However, the steady constant rise in cost does create a time lag resulting in short-term margin pressure. Taking a step back, there will always be some quarters where the commodity environment provides noticeable headwind, but there will also be quarters where the commodity environment will be highly supportive of wide margins. History has shown that run-ups in prices are followed by periods of more volatile or falling prices that provide margin tailwinds. When you look at our business beyond a quarter-by-quarter basis, we expect to have quality long-term results. On the volume side, we're seeing positive increases in volume, excluding material regional weather events. We expect this to continue over the course of this year. Finally, you can expect us to deliver on expenses Moving on to growth, we will continue to grow our field distribution business. The opportunity set remains strong, and we expect these organic and M&A opportunities to remain for the foreseeable future. On the midstream side, we remain patient, looking for the right opportunity at the right price. We'll continue to look for highly synergistic opportunities while remaining financially disciplined. Let me close by thanking our employees and our field distribution partners for their continued dedication in keeping Sunoco strong and ensuring a stable long-term future. Operators, you may open the line for questions.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the start keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Shanir Gashuni with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Glad to hear you guys are all safe and sound. Just wanted to first start off with this CPG or margin, you know, I guess result for the quarter. If I just first to clarify, I just want to understand correctly, basically the normalized margin is higher than what was reported because of the lumpy type audience that you had during the quarter. Is that kind of the message that you were trying to get across in your preferred remarks?

Ashnoor, good morning. This is Karl. I think that's a fair way to look at it, which is why we shared those one-time items. Okay, perfect.

And so now when I think about The fact that when I adjust that back out, you're talking over 10 cents here for the quarter. Obviously, that's been a strong margin and that's kind of been a story all year. How should we be thinking about it kind of on a go-forward basis? I know that you've sort of said you expect it to be higher and so forth, but is it more a scenario that it stays at that level until volumes return to a more normalized level and then We run the risk of market share type issues or competitors trying to compete on market share and those margins start to compress. Or do you feel that the behavior has changed for the industry in general?

Yeah, I think both of those scenarios that you lay out are possibilities. As we look forward and we think about that, in my prepared remarks, I talked a little bit about and Joe talked about, you know, we have these These impacts of the current market conditions, so obviously in the fourth quarter and so far in the first quarter, you have these moving commodity prices and tighter margins. I talked about a floor somewhere in that 9.5% to 10% range. I think that is applicable until volumes return to 2019 levels, and then after that, we'll see. One of the things we think about, though, is that there continue to be inflationary pressures that will continue to push on this break even. So even once we return to 2019 volumes, you know, the break even might stay higher.

Okay, that makes sense. Do you get a sense that there could be a behavior change? Everybody has sort of seen the strong of origins or that's total speculation at this point?

I think it's probably too early to tell, but I think it's a fair thought, and we'll see how the market shakes out.

Okay, and then a follow-up question. Towards the end of your prepared marks, you had some very good cost performance in 4Q, and you did say that you implied that some of it was temporary in nature, but you've had strong cost performance all year, and you've made some difficult decisions. As we sort of think about on a go-forward basis, a return to some new normal level, whatever that may be. I would expect that there would be some variable costs that would come up as well, too. But are you able to handicap how much of the cost savings that you achieve during 2020 that you'll be able to permanently capture on a go-forward basis? Is it 50%, 80%, just some sort of handicap, if you may?

Yes, sir. Hi, this is Dylan. Instead of giving you an exact number here, One thing I kind of want to point out is when we look at expenses, you know, we always put out guidance for an annual level. Quarters, there's timing differences, so individual quarters can be a little bit lumpy. So obviously in the fourth quarter, we had really strong performance. We had some timing issues that made that quarter a little bit lower than what our real run rate would be. You know, I'll just point out, you know, we cut significant costs in 2020. and we expect most of that to carry over into 2021 even with our expectations for higher volumes. So if you look at the guidance rate of 440 to 450, that's a little over 110 a quarter and I think that will be fairly consistent through the year with a little bit of upslope but as the variable costs increase but really if you look back at what we achieved in 2020, we expect the vast majority of that to carry over.

Okay, and then my question was more thinking about return to normal. So let's say thinking about a 22, and I'm not asking for specific guidance, but, you know, are you able to capture most of those costs even into a 22 type of environment, you know, outside of like a little bit of inflation related to variable costs?

Yeah, this is Karl. The only thing I'd add to what Dylan said about 22 is once we return to 2019 volumes, we're clearly gonna be below our 2019 expense level. So yes, the vast majority of it we're gonna be able to carry forward.

Okay, perfect, that's what I was looking for. Thank you very much guys, appreciate it and stay warm and hope you maintain power. Thanks, you too.

Our next question comes from the line of Teresa Chen with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, thank you for taking my questions. I guess first, just going back on the cent per gallon discussion, I understand, Karl, that you mentioned the 7-11 makeup payment, which I believe makes up for any of the deficiencies related to your gross profit agreement, with the volumes having ramped up since the initial startup time and 2020 being a pretty down year. as a result of the demand destruction. Do you have any idea of what this boost will be come first quarter 2021?

Yeah. Hi, Teresa. On 7-11, you know, we're not going to disclose details about their volumes, but it is fair given all the factors you highlighted for 2020, we're anticipating that makeup payment to be higher than what it was last year.

Okay, and to your comments about the nine and a half to 10 cent floor, that does not that would not include the makeup payment, correct, which would have no associated volumes with it.

That's right.

Okay. And given that this quarter, it was relatively noisy on the CPG front, just with the timing differences and one time noise. Is there any of that expected in first quarter 2021 that we should watch out for?

I think 7-11 is the one item that we would anticipate in Q1, which is why we've called that out.

Okay. And then turning to volumes, so I just wanted to clarify some of your and Joe's comments. Seems like, you know, things have, the underlying trend has improved since October, but still not quite back to pre-pandemic levels. and clearly we've seen the extreme weather conditions likely impacting volumes across your footprint. Any way to triangulate where that kind of shakes out as a baseline run rate from the 1.829 billion in fourth quarter 20 to first quarter 2021?

Sure. If you think about our guidance for 2021, that's seven and a quarter to seven and three quarters that is pretty wide range right and that that represents you know somewhere between five percent and twelve percent off of our 2019 levels so you know we obviously reported twelve percent down in for the fourth quarter and I provided some more context on that in my prepared remarks as we've moved into the first quarter just to give you a flavor our volumes were off around somewhere between 9% and 10% in January. So that's a little better performance. As it directly relates to this weather event, clearly that's had some impact in the areas where we operate, particularly because this winter weather's been so extensive across the South and other parts of the country. But it really is a temporary demand event. So I wouldn't expect that that would change the run rate. It might have a little bit of an impact, particularly in Texas here this week, but we should still firmly be within our volume guidance ranges.

Thank you very much.

Thanks, Teresa.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Boreen with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, everyone. Maybe if I could just stick on the near-term weather impacts here. I'm just wondering if you can maybe help us frame, with so much refining capacity offline here, sort of what the impacts here are sort of on your supplies and what impact they may be having on the business. Is that temporary and, hey, look, The refining capacity being down is really matched by demand being down on the other side. So it's not a concern. So if you can just talk to us about kind of some of the supply interruptions that are out there in the market right now. Sure.

I mean, I'll start off, Gabe, with, you know, as members of the community ourselves, we've been living through some of these challenges. So first, our primary focus is to try to get fuel wherever we can to support those who need it. Obviously, there have been challenges with terminals shut down, as you mentioned, refinery shut down, and some roads challenged to move trucks on. But here's what I'd say. There are a couple of impacts in the short term. Obviously, it's providing upward pressure on prices and margins. I mentioned with Teresa's question, It has had some demand impact. That's a temporary event. The refinery shutdowns have clearly taken some supply off the table. But if you look at our network, we're the largest independent distributor of fuel in the United States. And so we have a lot of different supply chains, a lot of different suppliers. We have our own fleet of trucks. We use third-party partners to move trucks around. in some ways you know this is different than say a hurricane but in some ways there's some similarities where we work through it and we have flexibility in our supply chains clearly there's been some impacts we'll work through them over the next few days and from a overall market impact it really depends on how quickly these refineries come back up and whether the supply is offline and for longer than we have the demand impact. And that'll be reflected in the markets.

Got it. Thank you. And then maybe if I can shift gears a little bit to talking about sort of where the growth capex is going this year, if there's anything in particular you would kind of call out within the different buckets of growth capex you're going to be spending in 21?

Yeah, I mean, the number that we put out on growth capex in our guidance, the vast majority of that is really on our fuel, on organic growth in our fuel distribution business. There's a little bit in our midstream business, but it's primarily on the fuel distribution side, signing up new customers. And, you know, generally those are, you know, seven to 10 year contracts. And we put a little bit of capital in upfront to help them rebrand their stations. That's the majority of it.

Got it. Okay. And then, Joe, you mentioned M&A and being patient. Just curious, as always, for your thoughts in terms of how you kind of characterize the M&A landscape at the moment.

Sure. And, Gabe, I think first thing is our strategy hasn't changed. First, I think we're in a good position to capitalize on any opportunities that come about. Secondly, we're focused on both field distribution and product terminals. and we're gonna approach it both from an organic and an M&A standpoint. The question really for us right now is evaluating valuations and seeing where we have the most realizable synergies. That's gonna really guide us on which ones that we pursue. As far as the overall landscape, for obvious reasons, the chatter as well as real processes are significantly higher in 2021 than 2020. And again, from our standpoint, we're in a good position. We're gonna be patient. I think Dylan highlighted in our financial discipline. And whenever these opportunities come up and we have significant synergies and we think the valuation is correct, reflected in what valuations are overall, then we'll be in a good position to capitalize on it.

Got it. Thanks, Joe.

Thank you, Gabe.

Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Junis with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, morning, guys. Just a few quick follow-ups and maybe starting off with Joe, that last question there, and thinking about the financial discipline and funding that growth. I think as I look at some of the math on what you guys have guided, you get to the end of the year, you've got a little bit of wiggle room on free cash after the distribution. But as you go sort of beyond the $120 million you've more or less guided to, it would seem like you're going to have to lean on that balance sheet a little bit more to fund growth beyond that or M&A beyond that. So just curious, as you define financial discipline or being disciplined, how are you thinking about leaning on that balance sheet, potentially levering up a little bit this year, even if temporarily, in order to achieve that?

Yeah, hi, this is Dylan here. I think when we look at that leverage target, we are still committed to the four times level. That said, there is a little bit of flexibility around that number, not significantly, but In periods where there aren't the opportunities there for growth, we'll trend a little bit below that. And opportunities where there are significant growth opportunities at good, attractive multiples that are very creative to unit holder value, we may trend slightly above there. So depending on what we're able to capitalize on this year, I still think that we plan on targeting being right around that four times.

Okay, got it. I appreciate that, Dylan. And then sticking along this theme, if we could, just thinking about the opportunity set out there, the December deal, that terminal was fairly small in size. Sounds like it's pretty accretive, I think, within the first year. In terms of scaling up and doing something larger, are those opportunities out there at all? And then just curious, as you go to bid on these assets, what kind of competition are you running into? Is private equity showing up? Is it others like yourselves? Just curious what that landscape looks like.

This is Joe. I'll take the first part of your question about size. Again, I think we lay out our kind of our financial parameters and I go back to valuation and realizable synergy. If it's a small one like the one we did earlier this year, closed earlier this year, that's great too. If there's a bunch of those out there, we'll go out there and roll those up. But if there's something bigger, if it fits into our financial parameters, we'll pursue those too. As far as your question about competition, too early to tell because there hasn't been large significant transactions in the more midstream space when it comes to product terminals. With the landscape, my prediction would be that valuations are going to be more attractive to buyers than to sellers as far as the number of infrastructure funds and other participants. I would believe that that universe is probably smaller as far as strategics. I think we're positioned as well as anybody because we have a natural short with our field distribution footprint. And, you know, we talked about this in the past. We really do view field distribution and product terminals as really interlinked sectors. So the reason why we were looking at product terminals is because we got a huge Field Distribution Short. That's what the real synergies come from. And I think we've shown over the last few years when it comes to being very disciplined on the expense side, we feel very confident that when it comes to SG&H synergies, we can deliver on that.

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Joe. Last one, if I could quickly sneak it in. Your general partner recently launched an alternative energy group, obviously embracing energy transition and the ESG theme. Do you anticipate doing something similar or finding ways to work with them in that group on projects to maybe do more on renewable diesel or even purchase renewable power at some of your facilities?

Yes, this is Karl. I think we're not necessarily a part of what energy transfers announced, but obviously, just like in the past where we've done commercial Deals with them, even like the J.C. Nolan joint venture. Or with other partners, we absolutely are looking at the landscape of different opportunities in the renewable space. But it'll have to make sense for our business and be complementary to what we do. So I think like renewable diesel would probably make more sense in us going into the power sector, for example. I'm not announcing anything here. I'm just talking about things and how we're thinking about it. So Yeah, it's always on our radar, and we'll look for opportunities in the future. Got it.

Appreciate all the call-outs. Thanks, guys. Be well. Thanks. Thanks.

Our next question comes from the line of John Royal with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Most of mine were asked, but I just had one on the growth CapEx question. You talked about it kind of in nature, but in terms of the absolute level, it leads to $120 million. Looks like it's a bit high relative to pre-2020, but if I average it with 2020, it's kind of roughly at 2019 level. So my question is, should we think about the 2021 guide as having a lot of catch-up in it from projects deferred in 2020, or is it more of a structural pickup and activity?

Hey John, this is Joe. I think the way you could think about it is that we view M&A and organic kind of as one and the same. They kind of compete against one another. And if you kind of go back to, let's say, pre-2019, 2018, we did a lot of field distribution acquisition roll-up opportunities. So that took a portion, a larger portion of our capital. As we fast forward to 2019, 2020, and 2021, I've mentioned previous calls that we have the organic growth capability that we didn't have two or three years ago. So they're competing against one another. So if we find M&A deals in field distribution that is just as attractive or more attractive than our organic growth, we have the flexibility to dial down our organic growth and flip over to an M&A strategy. But if we don't have as attractive M&A opportunities in the field distribution will just dial up our organic growth opportunities. So I think it's flexible. So going forward, I think you can probably, the way to view us is that we have, based on our free cash flow and within our financial parameters, we'll come up with a growth capital budget, but at the same time, we have the flexibility to scale it up or scale it down appropriately based on opportunities.

Great. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. Mr. Grischow, I'd now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Yeah, thanks everyone for joining us today. As usual, if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to me. Thanks and have a great day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.