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2/23/2022
Good day and thank you for standing by.
Welcome to the VISTA's fourth quarter 2021 earnings webcast conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alejandro Chernacov. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to VISTA's fourth quarter and full year 2021 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, VISTA's chairman and CEO, Pablo Vera Pinto, VISTA's CFO, and Juan Garoby, VISTA's COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on slide 2. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in U.S. dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this conference call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS measures, such as adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in our earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information. Our company, Pista, is a Sociedad Anónima Bursátil de Capital Variable organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. The tickers of our common stock are Vista in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and BIST in the New York Stock Exchange. The ticker of the warrants is BTW408A. I will now turn the call over to Miguel.
Thanks, Ale. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining this earning call. Today, I will share with you the four-quarter and full year result of 2021. We have made excellent progress across all key fronts, delivering solid operating and financial performance, increasing P1 reserves and ready-to-drill well inventory, strengthening our balance sheet, and reinforcing our commitment to sustainability. 2021 marked a turning point for our company, initiating a clear path of strong total shareholder return. I will kick it off by going through our Q4 results and I will then move on to full year results. During Q4 2021, total production averaged 41.1 thousand VOE per day, a 34% increase year over year. Oil production was up 41% in the same period, boosted by our development in Bajada del Palo Oeste where we tie in 20 new wells during the year. Total revenues in Q4 2021 were $196 million, a 146% increase year-over-year, mostly driven by the increase in oil production and stronger realized oil prices. Lifting costs per VOE was $7.5 for the quarter, Excluding costs related to the 50% non-operated working interest we held in Aguada Federal and Bandurria Norte. This implies an inter-annual reduction of 7%. Adjusted EVDA was $117 million, more than doubling year over year, and implying a solid adjusted EVDA margin of 59%. Capital expenditure for the quarter was $97 million, reflecting the completion of our fifth PATH in the year Embajada del Palo Oeste. During Q4 2021, we generated proceeds free cash flow of $62.8 million, driven by robust cash flow from operations. Adjusted net income was a solid $35.4 million showing significant progress vis-à-vis Q4 2020, which showed a loss of $21.6 million. We will now deep dive into the main operational and financial metrics of the quarter. Total production during Q4 2021 was 41.1 thousand VOE per day, up 34% inter-annually and 2% sequentially. Production growth was driven by our flagship development in Baja del Palo Oeste, which continues to deliver productivity above our type curve. Given the high oil mix in Baja del Palo Oeste wealth, we see a higher growth in oil production, which increased 41% year over year to 32.4 barrels of oil per day. In December, we tie in path number 10. Consisting in four wells, two landed in La Cocina and two in the Organico, with an average length of 2,850 meters per well and 54 average stages per well. Note that this path did not contribute meaningful production in the fourth quarter. Gas production increased 15% year over year. The sequential decrease reflects our strategy to boost gas production during the winter, in line with the higher demand and prices. Total revenues in Q4 2021 were $196 million, a strong inter-annual increase driven by the boost in oil production and realized oil prices. Realized oil prices for the quarter averaged $60.6 per barrel, Up 51% year over year and 6% quarter over quarter. Sales to export markets accounted for 33% of the oil volumes. We choose sales cargos during the quarter and sales contracts executed when Brent was trading at around $78 per barrel on average. The domestic market accounted for 67% of our total sales in the quarter. with a crude oil price of $55.5 per barrel. We continue to execute our strategy of building a sale book early on to lock in revenues and fund investment activities. Our entire Q1 2022 oil sales, with approximately 34% of export volume, have already been locked in at an average July price of around $63 per barrel. Realized gas prices increased 70% year over year to $2.7 per million of BTU, boosted by the planned gas summer price of $2.7 per million of BTU, applicable to approximately 70% of our total volumes. Additionally, industrial market prices increased from $1.6 to $2.7 per million of BTU year over year. Total lifting cost for the quarter was $27.9 million. As in the previous quarter, we managed to maintain lifting costs virtually flat sequentially, despite peso effect appreciation in real terms. Lifting cost per VOE was $7.5, down 7% year over year. As incremental production from Bajada del Palo Oeste with low marginal cost continues to dilute our feed cost base. You should know these figures do not include the impact of our 50% non-operated working interest in Aguada Federal and Bandurria Norte, which adds $2.4 million or $0.5 per BOE to our total lifting cost. As we took over operatorship and became sole concession holders of Aguada Federal and Bandurria Norte on January 17, we started to work and several projects to reduce lifting costs through the integration of these assets with our Bajada del Palo Oeste cluster. We forecast to reduce the lifting costs per VOE of these assets to single digits during 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2021 stood at $116.5 million, an expansion of three times compared to Q4 2020 Reflecting higher production rate and realized oil prices amid stable lifting costs. Sequentially, adjusted EVA improved 13%. You should note that Q4 2021 includes $4.5 million of operating income generated by the S.A.B. with Trafigura, which has not impacted in the previous quarter. Our adjusted EVA margin has remained Strong in the quarter at 59%. Net back have improved 11% sequentially to $30.8 per VOE, mainly driven by higher revenues per VOE amid flat operating costs. Moving to slide 8, I will review our financial situation. Cash flow for operating activities in Q4 2021 was a robust 138.8 million dollars, five times higher on a year over year comparison. Cash flow used in investing activities was 76 million dollars with a capex activity of 97.3 million dollars. This solid result led to a positive free cash flow of 62.8 million dollars for the quarter. In turn, cash flow used in financial activities was $13.5 million, mainly driven by interest payment of $3.8 million and debt repayment of $1.6 million. This led to a cash position at ERN of $315 million. We believe that Q4 results are good evidence of our strong operating and financial performance. This is driving profitability growth and free cash flow generation. I will now move to the full year results. First, I will highlight how our achievements in 2021 have solidified the foundations of our strategic plan. We continue to successfully underpin our growth plan by expanding reserves and our ready-to-drill well inventory. B1 Reserve increased by 42% to 181.6 million BOEs, resulting in an implied reserve replenishment ratio of 477%. This was mainly driven by organic growing Bajara del Palo Este. We also acquired 50,000 core acres in Bacamuerta, adding approximately 300 locations to our new well inventory. Half of these locations, considering Aguada Ferrer only, are an extension of our core development cluster. We increase total production 46% year-over-year to 38.8 thousand BOEs per day, driven by the tie-in of 20 new wells in Bajara del Paloeste in line with guidance. We reduced lifting costs 18% year-over-year to $7.4 per BOE, also delivering on guidance. We also reduced DNC costs by 18% year-over-year to $10 million per well on normalized basis. We have also continued to strengthen our balance sheets. Solid performance during the year has led to a reduction of our net leverage ratio to 0.8 times adjusted VDA, as well as a positive free cash flow of $105.9 million. We successfully raised $260 million in the Argentinian debt capital market, achieving an extension in average debt duration to 2.5 years at year-end, from 1.5 years at the end of 2020. Finally, we reinforce our commitment to sustainability. In 2021, we have published our inaugural sustainability report, stressing our pledge to sustainable business practices and transparent reporting. We reduce scope one and two and many more. Last but not least, we established our ambition to become net zero in 2026 by combining a reduction of 35% in absolute greenhouse gas emissions in our operation with the implementation of our own program of nature-based solutions. Moving to slide 10, I will comment on our proof reserve, which increased by 42% vis-a-vis 2020 for a total of 181.6 million BOEs estimated at year-end 2021, implying a total reserve replacement ratio of 477%. This constitutes an outstanding achievement by our operations team as we continue to prove the quality of our core Baca Muerta acreage and our ability to organically generate profitable growth. Net additions were 67.6 million BOEs, mainly driven by the activity in Baja del Palo Oeste, where we added 52 new waste locations resulting in a total of 134 booked relocations. Total reserves in Baja del Palo Este are now estimated at 155 million BOEs or 85% of the total proof reserves. The reduction of lifting costs by 16% year over year as well as the increase in oil prices have also contributed with the reserve additions by extending the economic life of the wealth. Proof-developed reserve increased 21% to 64.7 million BOEs, whereas proof-undeveloped reserve increased 56% to 116.9 million BOEs. The certified present value at 10% discount rate attributable Chubista's interest in proof reserve is $1.5 billion, using a price assumption of $55 per barrel for oil and $3.92 per million of standard cubic feet for gas, according to SAC guidelines. We will now deep dive in our key operating achievements. During 2021, we made solid progress in Bajada del Palo Este by tying in 20 new wells for the year, we have doubled the number of wells of production. This boosted the total shell production by three times and total oil production by 66% vis-a-vis 2020. Our 2021 development plan was delivered within budget with a total capex of $324 million, 2% below guidance. As discussed before, we reduced drilling and completion costs by 18% year-over-year to an average of $10 million per well on a normal life basis, a key contributor to our profitable growth plan. This achievement is the consequence of a clear roadmap with focus on continuous improvement across several fronts. From an execution standpoint, during 2021 we reduced drilling days We have achieved savings through the reduction of drilling and completion service rates, as well in water and propane purchases. It is worth noting that these are permanent savings already built into our cost base. In terms of productivity, our wells continue to perform above our tight curve of 1.5 million VOE of EUR. For the first 180 days, our average well considering our first 32 wells Our productivity and cost results have driven our development cost down to a highly competitive $7.3 per BOE, a cornerstone of our high-return short-cycle growth plan. During 2021, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet. Cash from operating activities was a robust $401.4 million, up 328% compared to 2020. Cash from investing activities doubled year over year to $295.5 million, mainly driven by the increase in drilling and completion activities in Bajada del Palo Oeste. This result in a positive free cash flow of $105.9 million, reflecting a clear turning point in our operation when compared to the negative $62.3 million in 2020. Based on our highly efficient cost structure and with conservative relied prices in the $60 per barrel area, we are on track to deliver superior total shareholder return through profitable growth, and Free Cash Flow Generation. Our successful activity in the Argentinian debt market was a key to pre-finance 2020 maturities, extend debt duration as shown earlier, and reduce the average cost of debt to 5.8% at ERN 2021 from 6.9% at ERN 2020. Finally, the expansion in adjusted EBITDA which, as shown early, increased by three times inter-annually, led to a steady reduction in net leverage ratio from 3.5 times at the end of 2020 to a healthy 0.8 times at the end of 2021. I will now give you some additional color on our ESG progress. On the environmental front, we achieved significant milestones in relation to our emission reduction plan. During 2021, we finalized a study to determine our greenhouse gas emissions for 2019 and 2020, which constitute the baseline against which we will measure progress. We also completed our Amendment Cost Curve, a tool that is key to prioritize projects aimed at reducing our operational footprint and outline our roadmap to net-zero. We are currently executing several projects from this portfolio. We captured cube winds in 2021, which led to a 14% reduction in absolute scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions. Even as the total production increased 46% year over year, this led to a 39% reduction in intensity to 24.1 kilos of CO2 equivalent per VOE. We have outlined a plan to reduce emissions in our operation by 35% through 2026. We also kicked off projects from our own portfolio of nature-based solutions to offset remaining CO2 emissions with the implementation of forest and soil carbon sequestration. The combination of these two plans drive our ambition to become net zero in scope one and two emissions in 2026. Moving to the social front, we have made good progress regarding our people and the communities in which we operate and live. The safety of our employees and contractors working in our operation continues to be our main priority. In 2021, total recordable incident rate was 0.29, improving on the 0.38 rate record in 2020, which was already well above Tier 1, International Oil and Gas Standards. In terms of diversity, we continue with implementation of our gender program, which comprehensively addresses multiple fronts such as hiring, mentoring and advancement, training and awareness, and new policies focused on diversity, equity and inclusion. As an example of our progress and ambition target, during 2021, 60% of our new hires were women. We made good progress since strengthening our local supply chain. In 2021, the total value of local purchases was $78 million, reflecting a 56% increase year over year. The share of the local supplier increased to 21% of total purchases. We continue to invest in social infrastructure in Catriel. During 2021, we completed the first phase of an 8 km bicycle lane, assigned company premises for children's sport activities and sponsored a local female table tennis player. In terms of governance, we made a good progress in reporting, not only by issuing our inaugural report last April. We are working closely with our board which is engaged in ESG activities through the Corporate Practice Committee. Finally, we are showing leadership in the region, having disclosed our net zero ambition in our Investor Day in December. We look forward to publishing our next report in May 2022. In 2021, we established an internal cargo price of $50 per ton of CO2 equivalent. to reflect the cost of emission in strategic planning and capital allocation exercises. Finally, we also strengthen governance by issuing policies related to human rights, conflict of interest and anti-corruption, and train staff to continue improving awareness. On January 17, we acquired a 50% working interest in Aguada Federal and Bandurria Norte concession from Wintershaldea, This means we now are operators and sole concession holders of both blocks. Vista made a payment of $90 million in January, while an additional $50 million are due in eight quarterly installments. The transaction effectively canceled the carry consideration of $77 million assumed when we acquired the initial 50%. So, the implied valuation of the deal is approximately $2,700 per acreage, which is significantly below historic M&A multiples in Vaca Muerta. Through the combined deals with Conoco in September and Wintershade in January, we have added more than 50,000 core Vaca Muerta acreage and 300 new well locations to our inventory. Being the operators of the block, We expect to quickly replicate the successful operating model of Bajada del Palo Oeste, capturing synergies to reduce lifting costs and DNC costs. Also, being owners of 100%, we will gain additional flexibility in our development plan. We have already taken control of the blocks. We are now integrating the asset with Vista Operations, gaining full advantage of the synergies we can capture using existing crews, Oilfield Services and Procurement. These projects are forecasted to reduce the block lifting cost to a single digit during 2022. We are building a pipeline to connect Aguada Federal to Path No. 5, located in the northwest of Bajara del Paloeste. This pipeline is expected to become operational in the second half of the year, allowing oil evacuation of the three producing wells in Aguada Federal through our Bajada del Palo cluster. This will lower transportation and trimming costs and eliminate the carbon footprint of the track currently used for transportation. We are also planning to complete four already drilled but uncompleted wells in Aguada Federal in Q4 2022. In 2021, we deliver strong performance across all key financial metrics. Realized crude oil prices improved 48% year over year from $37.2 per barrel in 2020 to $54.9 per barrel in 2021. We exported 3.1 million barrels of oil, which represent 28% of oil sales volumes in 2021. Over the same period, total revenues increased by 138% from $274 to $652 million. Higher revenues, combined with a reduction of listing costs described earlier, led to a boost in adjusted EBITDA, which quadrupled to $380 million for 2021, exceeding our guidance of $370 million. Return on average capital employee was 70% in 2021, a significant turnaround considering and reflecting solid execution of our profitable growth plan. Adjusted net income is showing the same trend, with $79 million in 2021 vis-à-vis a loss of $115 million recorded in 2020. These results leave us well on track to deliver on the fire plan we laid out in our last investor day. I will now present our updated guidance for 2022, which reflects a more contractive view across key metrics and incorporate activity in Aguada Federal. We expect to tie in 24 new wells during the year. Most of the drilling activity is planned in Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we will tie in 16 wells. The first four-well path is planned to be tied in during April. To fulfill pilot commitment in unconventional concessions, we are currently tying in two wells in Baja del Palo Este, and we plan to drill, complete, and tie in two wells in Aguila Mora. Finally, we plan to complete and tie in the four wells that were already drilled in Aguada Federal. This work program is forecasted to deliver a solid production growth of approximately 20% year-over-year, leading to an average between 46,000 and 47,000 VOE per day for 2022. We forecast the exit rate to be around 50,000 VOE per day. We expect lifting costs to remain flat at $7.5 per VOE, including Aguada Federal and Bandurria Norte. We have the right projects in place to adapt the acquired block to Vista Lifting Cost Standard and also offset the slight inflation we are seeing in Sun Oil Field Services driven by the appreciation of the peso in real terms during the second half of 2021. We expect adjusted VDA to reach between $550 and $575 million, an interannual growth of approximately 48%. This forecast is based on an average realized oil price of $60 per barrel. We are planning to export 5.5 million barrels of oil, which represent 40% of our crude oil sales, an increase of 77% in exporting volume year over year. As a reference, if we brand average $90 for the remainder of the year, in line with export prices, did add approximately $50 million of adjusted VDA. CAPEC guidance is in the range of $375 to $400 million, reflecting additional activity in Aguada Federal. This CAPEC is partially front-loaded during the year, as we build infrastructure for our new production, impacting free cash flow in the first two quarters. For the full year, we continue to expect positive cash flow. Finally, we expect to reduce gross financial debt from $611 million at December 2021 to $575 million forecasted as of December 2022. To wrap up during 2021, we have seen solid operating performance, delivering on activity, production, lifting costs, and adjusted EVDA guidance. We expanded proof of reserve by 42% We successfully refinanced debt maturities, extending average debt duration and lower average cost of debt. Our balance sheet was further strengthened with a reduction in net leverage ratio to 0.8 times. We delivered strong financial performance, recording a 70% return on average capital employee and an adjusted net income of $79 million. We reinforced commitment to sustainability with solid progress in reducing emissions. We reduced absolute greenhouse gas emissions by 14% year over year and laid out a comprehensive plan to become net zero in 2026. We have laid out an ambitious set of targets for 2022 and shown in our guidance. We expect to continue delivering solid improvement across key operating and financial metrics. In short, 2021 was a turning point for our company, initiating a clear path of strong total shareholder returns. In this respect, we plan to submit for shareholder approval a $20 million share-by-back program in our next general shareholder meeting expected to take place in April 2022. I will now take a moment to thank our investors for their continued support and interest in our company. I would also like to thank all the staff at Vista for their hard work during 2021. which was a key factor in delivering the result shown today. And with that, operators, please open the line for Q&A.
As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I have three quick ones. Miguel, I think looking at the guidance, it looks very achievable, and we know that the company has been able to deliver and over-deliver on the guidance. Just wondering what would lead to upside in production and margins for 2022. Wondering if there is any room to accelerate drilling. The second question is about the capital structure. How could we think perhaps about either a fast prepayment of debt or an increase in shareholder remuneration? So how do you find that balance to be when looking at the capital structure? And last, what are you seeing recently in the industry in terms of cost and capex inflation? And if there is any specific bottleneck because of that for your activities in Argentina? Thank you very much.
Hi, Bruno, and thank you for your question and thank you for your comments. So, starting with the first one as a source of acceleration, Yes, definitely we have, as you know, a deep portfolio of opportunities and locations that we can use. I will say for this year, sources of acceleration that we are not planning yet to use, but we have it and we have it in mind, and we have had the discussion internally, are one, Aguada Federal, where so far we are just planning to complete the four DACs that we have there, and we believe that is a long-hanging fruit, and also an area that is a neighbor to our main center of operation, that is Baja del Palo Oeste, that of course we believe is going to give us flexibility and potential to grow from the development plan point of view. And the other is the possibility of adding a fifth path, and I will say not earlier than the second half of the year. Again, that is not in the plan. These are potential ways of accelerating related to your question. In terms of debt, we are not planning to prepay. We are planning to reduce debt when the maturity is due. First, we have announced we will reduce from $611,000 Our debt position that was at ERN 2021 to 575 at ERN 2022. As we announced in December, that also we are planning to take the debt further down to 400 million. And that, I mean, we will see how we move on that. As you know, we have restriction, cross-border restriction. And the idea is first... to reduce our cross-border debt. I think we will give that priority to that. And then be flexible in how we distribute back to shareholders through different means. Of course, one that we are announcing today is the buy-back program. Related to pressures in the industry, yes, definitely there is pressure in the industry. Now, we don't see that pressure in the industry today from prices of services to be a bottleneck. We have long-term contracts and long-term relationships with our main contractors, so really we don't see a bottleneck there. Infrastructure is not a bottleneck today. But I think it's something that we need to keep and being very proactive in Argentina, particularly Old El Val, to make sure that we continue upgrading that pipeline and that facilities since the rate of growing in Vaca Muerta has been proved during the last two years to be a good one. So we should keep an eye on that. What was the other question? No, that was it. Thank you, Miguel. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andres Cardona from Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the presentation. Miguel, congratulations on the results on both sides on the financials. and the Reserves Front. I have two questions. Maybe the first is a follow-up from Bruno's question about how to accelerate the 2022 guidance. You mentioned some alternatives, but my question is what do you need to trigger those optionalities? And if the facilities that you currently have in place are enough or are becoming a bottleneck? And the second question is It may have to do with the talks that the IMF and the Argentinian government are taking place. It seems they are getting closer to reach an agreement. And the question is, if you may expect a change at the capital control front, or do you think it will remain in place for longer? Thanks and congratulations again.
Thank you, Andrea, for your question. The first one related to acceleration in terms of context, I would say that what we need in order to put that in operation, we have it. I mean, we have access to rig, we have our internal infrastructure is ready, we have facilities and we have capacity to allocate further growth during this year. I think what is going to determine if we really accelerate the plan or not is going to be the context. As you see, we are basically coming in Q1 better than we planned context-wise, meaning pricing, exportation, and the rest. So I think that is going to be key. I mean, how we see the context playing. I would say export and pricing. In terms of the IMF agreement, I believe it was required... and understand it's on the way to be perfected. So, I mean, good news for Argentina in that front. If that is going to ease effect controls, effect controls to me are related to lack of foreign currency. We need to see how the economy will after the EMF agreement and which other economic measures the government take and that's how we change that access to to Currency. But, I mean, we are not betting that that is going to drastically change very soon. I hope I answered your question, Andrés. Thank you. Thank you, Judith.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Regis Cardoso from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Hi, Miguel, Alejandro. Thanks for taking the questions. One of the questions, going back to the return shareholder topic, I just wanted to think of dividends, buybacks, other ways you could get returns back to shareholders in light of Not just your investment plans, but also in light of the capital restrictions, right, the access to dollars. Is there anything, for instance, the hydrocarbon law that was proposed a while back that would allow you to keep part of the export revenues? So is there any trigger, something like I need to be exporting X amount and then I need to have at least X percent of revenues? I mean, what would be necessary for you to actually be able to distribute cash to shareholders? And is it just an issue if it's dividends or if you do buybacks? You know, the same logic applies. And then, if I may, a second question about the lifting costs went up a little bit this quarter to $8 per barrel. Probably You know, partly explained by the new asset additions. So I just wanted to get a sense of how do you see the lifting costs going forward on a consolidated basis. Thank you.
Thank you, Regis, for your question. Yes, as you mentioned, I mean, we have restrictions in Argentina and also we have part of our cash in dollars as you know. We have decided that the more effective way of getting back to investors at the moment and in the current condition is with a buyback program that we will launch now in April. We have partial access to dollar currency to repay debt so also we believe and we are doing and we will continue doing that is good to gradually continue reducing debt or deliberation. That is how we believe we could make the best use of our proceeds today under the current conditions. As you mentioned, I mean, I think there's a win-win for the industry and for the country in having a program that somehow eased that restriction based on the investment and based on the capacity that today we have to generate proceeds cross-border through exportation. Definitely we'll be pushing. We are vocal about that because it's a no-brainer and it's a win-win for country and industry. And hope, I mean, I don't think we need a law, but I hope at some point of time There's a kind of a scheme or program that will allow us and the country to take advantage of that opportunity that we have. I cannot further comment on that because there's nothing concrete yet today. In terms of lifting costs, and yes, as you mentioned, with the acquisition of Aguada Federal, Weissel, Pablo Manuel Vera Pinto, Javier Rodríguez Galli, Juan Garoby to take it to a single digit number by the end of the year. What we are planning to do, well, we are today, first initiative is to eliminate the tracking. So we will build a pipeline that connects Aguada Federal to Bajada del Palo Este. I don't know, it's a 10 kilometer pipeline, so it's not a big deal. We will use the treatment plan of Bajara del Palo cluster, and also we use existing contracts for O&M, chemical, security, safety services, everything that we have in place. As you know, lifting costs, one of the parts is a thick cost, so as we add more location, as we add more production, we manage to dilute that and we will take advantage of that. So... Yeah, we are working on that. The impact on our lifting cost today is marginal. Nevertheless, nothing as you know, we will tackle, we will reduce it. And if we achieve our plan, our lifting cost at the end of the year will be close to probably $6.5 per bath. So we are on the case.
Very clear. Thanks, Miguel, for the answers.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Walter Chiarvesio from Santander. Your line is now open.
Hello. Good morning. Congratulations for the results. Thank you for taking my question. Actually, it was quite already answered, but to follow up with the With the wells drilled in the other blocks out of PPO, I understand this doesn't mean that it's the kickoff of more massive development in these new blocks, especially in Aguada Federal. Is that correct? Is my first question. I mean, this is more testing wells or pilot wells rather than drilling more, and the focus will keep being We keep being BPO in the short term. And what is the productivity that you expect in these new blocks compared to Baja de Palo Este? That's from my side.
Thank you, Walter, for your follow-up question. Yes, what you said is correct. I mean, we are not planning yet full development of Aguada Federal. We are completing four wells that we are drilled and not complete. So we basically not even we are going to drill those wells. We are going to complete those wells that mean fracking those wells and put it on production, lay the pipeline to tie in those wells directly to the facilities that we have in Baja del Palo. This is what we are planning at the moment. Do we have, if those wells are good wells, In terms of geology, there's nothing that made us think that that area is different to what we have. I mean, it will be for sure good quality, but of course those wells depend on how they've been drilled, where they've been landed, how they're completed and so on. We will be really responsible for the completion. We didn't land the wells, we didn't place the wells. So, anyway, we are positive about the result. And, of course, after we see the performance of the well, yes, there's potential to do more in Agueda Federal. The location is prime and is neighbor of Baja del Palo Oeste. So, I mean, it's a natural place to grow. The rest is two wells in Baja del Palo Oeste that we are cleaning up right now. And... We are not planning to drill more during this year there. And then we have two wells in Aguila Mora, okay, that is farther north, that also is just these two wells. So, again, back to your question, we could add a fifth rig, a fifth path to Bajada del Palo Este, and yes, Aguada Federal, in case those four wells that we Complete are very good. They also give us an upside to grow more if we need.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
You're very welcome, Walter.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Oriana Cobalt from Balan. Your line is now open.
Hi. This is Oriana Cobalt from Balan. Thanks for taking my questions and congratulations for a good quarter. I had a couple of follow-ups. First and foremost, just to ratify, the CAPEX guidance for 2022 is already including the acquisition of the remaining 50%, the $375 to $400 million that you were putting in your presentation. That's on one end. The second question that I had is that it's our understanding that refineries might be running at higher levels this year and that this could impact export levels. So just we were wondering... What is your take on this and if it's reasonable to say that we would be expecting lower export levels this year but kicking off to 2023? And last, in your ESD strategy, if you could further elaborate on this natural-based solution portfolio and what are you doing, those details would be great for us. Thank you.
Thank you, Rania, for your question. So the first one, very straightforward, your affirmation on CAPEX is correct, so it includes just the activity on Agua Federal. The CAPEX doesn't include the buy-in of the area. Related to export level, and I think if I understand your question correctly, But that may be the option of the refineries or the willingness of the refinery to load the refinery a bit more to create some subproducts related to whatever for the local market. Look, I mean, yes, it could happen. I think most of the refineries are run by operators that are fully integrated. So, really, if the refinery decides to take local prices or to push local prices against export prices of volume that we can export to create sub-products to subsidize the local market, If they do that, I mean, an integrator like YPF or others, I mean, business-wise, they are shooting in their foot. And I don't think that is good business practice. It could happen, could happen. If it happens, they are not managing the business well. Related to your question of sustainability, So, just to put in context a bit, so the sustainability program. We filed the baseline in 2020 with our actual baseline of 420 tons, around 39 kilograms of CO2 per VOE of intensity. This year, we managed to take this 420 to 360 and intensity from 39 to 30. As we mentioned, 14% and 39% reduction. Further down to 2026, we want to take it to 265 in absolute number, thousands of tons of CO2, and our intensity to 9. And that will be, intensity-wise, a reduction of 75%. and the rest we announced that is going to be upset through MBS. That MBS initiative company it has been put in place, team are in place and actually we are working in the portfolio of what we are going to address this year. I cannot disclose much yet because I think it's not time to disclose, but just for you to have a view, we will tackle from that portfolio around four projects this year. Projects have been somehow identified and we are working on that. We have more concrete news. I mean, we will update you. But this is everything I can say at the moment. So we have created a structure, and we have a team in place, and basically we are going through the main priority within our portfolio, and we will have actual project up and running this year.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Constantinos Papalia from Puentes. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Good morning and congratulations on your results. My question for you today concerns evacuation capacity for oil. How much spare capacity does Old Elval have? As you mentioned, no. and how does it affect your expansion plans on Baja del Palo Oeste and on Aguada Federal? Do you think we could expect Vista to use its cash to buy stakes in trunk lines so as to integrate operations now that exports start growing and become a significant portion of your revenues? Thank you very much. Did you receive my question?
Yeah, we received it. We started to answer and we were in mute. So, related to your question on track pipeline and Old Elval, yeah, definitely Old Elval, today, first of all, today we have not the capacity issue. Old Elval track pipeline currently has a capacity of 225,000 barrels per day. They are planning an increase to 265 in the first stage, adding some pump and station. And then also we understand there is another plan to further upgrade the facility to 375 with pipeline loops and so on. One will be executed more in the short term, the other one will take a bit more time. So my comment on that is that we don't have today a capacity evacuation problem, but we need to act because everybody is growing. We are not planning at the moment to take any stake in Old El Val, and I don't think even we have the opportunity to do so. So to answer your question, we don't have today and nothing on the table to be part of the management of all the values.
That was very clear. Thank you. Thank you very much.
You're welcome, Constantine.
Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Miguel Galuccio for closing remarks.
Gentlemen, thank you very much again for your question, your interest, and follow-up and reports on VISTA. So have a good day. I'm looking forward to see you next quarter.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
