10/26/2023

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining Beckler's third quarter unaudited financial results conference call. During this call, you may hear certain forward-looking statements. These statements may relate to our future prospects, developments, and business strategies, and may be identified by the use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, predict, project, will, goals, target, strategy, and similar terms and phrases, and may include references to assumptions. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions regarding our business, the economy, and other future conditions. Because forward-looking statements relate to the future, by their nature, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks, and changes in certain circumstances that are difficult to predict. Our actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. For all their foregoing reasons, you are cautioned against relying on forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information at future events or otherwise. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that the statements discussed on this call were prepared in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards, or the IFRS, and published on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The information for the third quarter of 2023 is preliminary and is provided with the understanding that once financial statements are available, updated information will be shared in the appropriate electronic format. At this time, we would like to remind the participants that your lines are on listen-only mode until the Q&A session. I would now like to pass the line to Beckless CEO, Mr. Juan Domingo Beckman. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Juan Domingo Beckman
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we discuss Beckless third quarter 2023 results. In the third quarter, U.S. and Canada experienced a notably notable recovery and overcame earlier hurdles related to off-cycle pricing adjustments. Volume and net sales in U.S. dollars were up versus the third quarter of 2022, primarily driven by the successful execution of our premiumization and pricing strategies. Our premium tequila segment continued to experience strong demand, outperforming the overall growth of the tequila market in the region. as indicated by recent Nielsen data. On the other hand, Mexico faced a challenging third quarter due to market factors affecting the spirits industry. However, we maintained a strong market position, supported by our premiumization strategy. Year-to-date performance in Mexico has shown resilience, marked by growth in value and increased revenue per case due to strategic pricing and product mix. In the EMEA region, the economic slowdown has impacted consumer spending, resulting in a decline in third-quarter volume and net sales. Nevertheless, we are outperforming major competitors in key markets and sustaining our market share growth. Meanwhile, the APAC region saw substantial growth in both volume and net sales, primarily attributed to the expansion of the tequila segment and increase among more consumers. The year-to-date growth in both regions is encouraging. We are confident in our grants, enduring value, and our capability to deliver sustainable growth for our shareholders. The successful execution of our premiumization strategy alongside Tequila's lasting popularity has played a vital role In addition, the recent price declines in the agave market are important tailings for our tequila portfolio on working capital requirements, cash flow, long-term profitability, and earnings generation capabilities.

speaker
Name Not Specified
Head of U.S. and Canada Region

Thank you, Juan. Good morning, everyone. I am pleased to share that the United States and Canada reported a positive third quarter, marking a recovery and normalization following the challenges faced in the first half of the year, primarily due to the off-cycle price increases. Can we know that the results in the following remarks were prepared on a custom currency basis? Starting in May, we began to notice a gradual improvement in net sales value, which continued into the current quarter, with an increase of 12.5% compared to the same period of last year. This positive trend is a result of price increases across our full-trend spirits portfolio and the successful execution of our premiumization strategy, driven by the resilient performance of our super and ultra-premium tequila brands. Shipments for the third quarter grew by 6.8% compared to the same period of last year. While depletions declined slightly by 2.5% due to the challenges in the RTD category, tequila depletions grew by 4% compared to the third quarter of 2022. As we anticipated in the previous conference call, our distributor partners have begun to restructure inventory to agreed upon levels during the third quarter of 2023 in preparation for the holiday season. This trend is encouraging. However, we need to be cautious as we are facing a high comparable base in the fourth quarter. In the competitive landscape, our performance in the U.S. during the quarter stood out positively compared to our peers. Based on the 13 weeks Nielsen value indicators, the overall spirits industry experienced a slow 1% growth, with the tequila category being a key growth driver, increasing by 5.5%. Our tequila portfolio grew by 7.4%, outpacing the category growth rate. Similarly, our whiskey portfolio consolidated its strong position, increasing by 7.6%, while the total whiskey category grew by 2.4%. Proximo NAPCA numbers are also showing positive performance. In the third quarter of 2023, our NAPCA consumer value grew by 4.7%, outperforming the industry average of 2.3%. As we approach the year end, our focus remains on maintaining the positive momentum. We remain confident that our tequila-based immunization strategy will continue to deliver substantial value, supported by a strong portfolio mix and the ongoing improvement of the RTD category. I will now turn the call over to Olga Limon to discuss the Mexico and Latin America results.

speaker
Olga Limon
Managing Director, Mexico and Latin America

Thank you, Luis, and good morning, everyone. Mexico had a challenging third quarter, primarily due to setbacks in the non-alcoholic category alongside broader macroeconomic headwinds, which led to a significant market contraction, impacting most categories across the entire spirits industry. Despite this economic slowdown, we maintained a strong position, outperforming the market and our peers, supported by our premiumization strategy. In the second quarter, we took over the distribution of boosts from a third party. Following this, we had to adjust to a packaging regulation change that affected the volume of the brand. Excluding these disruptions in the distribution and the regulatory hurdles, we would have experienced a 16.3 year-over-year contraction in total volume for the third quarter. On a year-to-date basis, Mexico's performance was resilient with a 7.3 growth in net sales value. Additionally, our average revenue per case increased 16% year-over-year. mainly attributed to a favorable product mix. We continue to focus on our premiumization and have seen the positive outcomes of the pricing adjustments we implemented in March. Across Latin America, the business landscape also remains challenging, influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment and ongoing political uncertainties. Despite these factors, we've observed the benefits of a higher average price per case driven by our premiumization strategy. Overall, our year-to-date performance has demonstrated our ability to navigate a challenging market environment equally, showing our resilience and growth potential. We remain committed to our strategic initiatives, focusing on premiumization and maintaining a competitive advantage. We will continue to closely monitor our overall brand portfolio as the market contracts and potential signs of downtrend trading emerge. I will now turn the call over to Gordon Drone, Managing Director of EMEA NAPAC Region. Thank you.

speaker
Gordon Drone
Managing Director, EMEA & APAC Region

Gordon Drone Many thanks, Olga, and good morning. The economic slowdown in Europe is starting to dampen consumer spending. According to Nielsen, the consumer basket's cost has increased by 18% over the past year. By contrast, the economic slowdown in Asia, excluding Australia, has not yet significantly impacted consumer spending patterns. In the EMEA region, GTR customers since the end of August are reporting a notable decline in sales, particularly for standard brands. This decline is evident in the Q3 performance when compared to the same period of last year, with Q3 sales declining by a low double-digit percentage and net sales dropping by a single digit. Despite this contraction, external data sources indicate that we are outperforming all our major competitors in key markets while our market share continues to grow. In Asia Pacific, Q3 volumes grew by nearly 50%, reflecting the significant expansion of tequila and our increasing traction with malt consumers, especially with bush mills. China remains a challenging market, particularly within the on-trade segment, as Chinese authorities enforced a 90-day closure of numerous nightclubs and KTVs due to its hosting of the Asian Games. This temporary measure is set to be lifted by the end of October, and the Games have now ended. Looking at the year-to-date numbers, the overall situation remains encouraging. EMEA volumes have increased by a high single digit and value by double digit in constant currency. In Asia Pacific, the business has also grown at a double digit in volume and value compared to year-to-date 2022, bearing in mind that Asia Pacific was predominantly in lockdown during the first half of 2022. While the European outlook remains challenging, we are confident in our ability to maximize our take of consumer spending in Q4, driven by market share gains and successful implementation of our corporate strategies. For Asia-Pacific, our perspective remains positive through the end of 2023. I will now pass the call over to Fernando Suarez.

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through the financial results for the third quarter of 2023. The company reported an 8.5% year-over-year decrease in consolidated net sales to 10.5 billion pesos. On a pro forma basis, adjusting for currency changes, our top line increased by 4.3% during the quarter. This increase was driven by a product mix skewed towards brands with higher sales per case and year-on-year price increases. Gross profit decreased by 19% in the third quarter to 5.1 billion pesos, while gross margin decreased from 54.1% in the third quarter of 2022 to 48.1% in the same period of this year. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to foreign currency effects caused by the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, or roughly 400 basis points of margin erosion to a lesser degree by higher input costs. This was partially offset by price increases across the regions, favorable shift in the geographic mix, and a recent decline in the agave market pricing environment. We've been observing a downward trend in agave prices. While this decrease holds promise for a medium-term outlook, It's important to note that this change is relatively recent and will not completely offset the foreign exchange pressures stemming from the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Additionally, the positive cost savings impact will not materialize immediately in our P&L. This delay is mainly attributed to the aging process of our products, which can require some time before they are ready for bottling. As we gradually transition through our older inventory produced with higher cost materials, there is an expected time lag in achieving cost reductions. As such, we do not expect any material benefits from lower input costs in our gross margin until the second half of next year. However, the sustained reduction in agave prices will have a positive medium and long-term effect in our working capital requirements and cash flow, as we have passed peak agave prices and hence inventory value, as well as a benefit to our long-term profitability and cash flow generation capabilities. Quarter over quarter EMP expenses increased by 22% to 2.7 billion pesos. As a percentage of net sales, AMP increased from 19.2% in the third quarter of 2022 to 25.5% in the same period of 2023. This increase was primarily attributed to a decline in net sales and reflects the planned change in timing of AMP spend relative to the prior year period. However, on a year-to-date basis, AMP represented 22.9% of net sales, in line with the company's full-year guidance of 22% plus minus 1%. Distribution expenses decreased by 18% to $439 million compared to the third quarter of 2022, driven by lower logistic and carrier costs. As a percentage of net sales, distribution expenses decreased from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2022 to 4.2% in the same period of 2023. SG&A expenses increased by 15% year-on-year, representing 10.1% of net sales compared to 8% in the third quarter of 2022. This was primarily attributed to a decline in net sales and inflationary pressures impacting the cost structure. Operating income decreased by 66% for the quarter, while operating margin decreased from 22.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 8.5% in the third quarter of this year. EBITDA for the third quarter decreased by 59%, quarter over quarter, to 1.2 billion pesos, with an EBITDA margin of 11%. Net financial expenses for the quarter reached 604 million pesos, compared to 173 million in the previous year. This increase was mainly driven by foreign exchange loss of 396 million pesos compared to a loss of 14 million pesos in the third quarter of 2022. The Mexican pesos quarter over quarter depreciation negatively affected our net cash exposure in U.S. dollars. Additionally, the company's interest expenses were higher in the same period of the previous year due to short-term financing incurred during the first nine months of 2023. These effects were partially offset by higher interest income, driven by an increase in interest rates. Consolidated net income decreased by 88% to 207 million pesos, with a net margin of 2% compared to 15% in the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per share for the quarter reached 6 pesos cents. As of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were 4 billion pesos, and total debt was 25 billion pesos. The combination of lower agave costs and the drawdown of raw materials and finished goods inventory holds the promise of a significant swing in free cash flow generation for the company. We saw a cash generation of $51 million in the quarter attributed to our ongoing inventory optimization efforts. A reversal of previous cash consumption trends seen this balance sheet item. We expect to continue right-sizing inventories throughout 2023 and 2024 in conjunction with a reduced capex over the coming years. This reduction in capex is particularly notable as our largest project, the 1800 distillery, is nearing completion. Regarding our debt financing, the company has mandated two global banks as joint arrangers to refinance its U.S. $500 million short-term bank debt with a five-year tenured bullet syndicated facility in two tranches, term and revolving. The company expects to be able to negotiate and close such refinancing before the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. This refinancing will support the company's effort to access capital on a long-term basis at competitive rates and extend its maturity profile. Our net leverage reached 2.9 times in the 12 months ended September 2023. We consider we have a capital structure that has been improved in the last year and is now closer to industry peers. However, we are cautious on going substantially above three times and believe the current leverage level is the peak for the year and should not increase by year end and should lower by next year. In line with the company's allocation, in line with the company's capital allocation program outlined during the annual general ordinary shareholders meeting held on April 28th, 2023, a cash dividend of 0.49 pesos for each outstanding share representing Bechler's capital stock was distributed on August 3rd. Regarding guidance, we reaffirm our expectations for high single-digit consolidated revenue growth on a constant currency basis for the full year. Additionally, we expect full-year capex to be in the lower part of the range of 200 to 225 million U.S. dollars. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for question and answer session.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. If you're dialed in by the telephone, please press star 2. That is star 2 on your telephone keypad if you have a voice question. If you're dialed in via the web, you may also ask a voice or a text question. We'll give a moment or so for any questions to come in. Okay, first question comes from Mr. Fernando Oliveira from Bank of America. Please go ahead, sir, your line is open.

speaker
Fernando Oliveira

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. The first one is, if you can give us an idea of what was the impact of Boost this quarter And also, can you elaborate more on the change of volume trend in Mexico and rest of the world? And what is your outlook for next quarter and, more importantly, 2024? And just a quick one. Last week, I saw at the press that Proxima Spirits acquired a distributor in Spain. Can you comment on that? What was the rationale there? And what is your expectation? How relevant is that acquisition? Thank you.

speaker
Olga Limon
Managing Director, Mexico and Latin America

Hi. About the Boost subject, the first impact was in the back of the distribution shift of our Boost brand. We had a third distributor, and we lost 237 cases from this third party to internal distribution. There were also some changes in the packaging regulations which impacted the brand performance, this Mexican regulation. And so excluding boost volumes, we would have fallen 16.3% in the quarter.

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

And regarding your second question on Spain, the company already had a majority stake in a distributor in Spain, and during the third quarter, we completed the rest of the equity stake in Spain. That's regarding Proximo Spain.

speaker
Fernando Oliveira

And how relevant is that acquisition, Fernando? I mean, does it move the needle?

speaker
Gordon Drone
Managing Director, EMEA & APAC Region

Hello, this is Gordon. So just to say it's an important acquisition for us because it's because one of our in-market companies. So clearly Spain is an important tequila market for us. And therefore, that is why we have been seeking our own control of route to market in Spain.

speaker
Fernando Oliveira

Great. And regarding the trends on volume that we observed this quarter in Mexico and the rest of the world, can you elaborate more on that, given the weakness that we saw this quarter?

speaker
Olga Limon
Managing Director, Mexico and Latin America

Yes. Also in Mexico, as we previously cautioned in our second quarter conference call, we saw a contraction in the market, which is affecting all categories and causing a slight downtrading within the industry. Also, high inflation and insecurity issues are impacting the on-premise channel. But within this contraction, we are outperforming our peers in the market.

speaker
Gordon Drone
Managing Director, EMEA & APAC Region

Regarding the EMEA APAC region, actually the decline or the slowdown in sales in the third quarter was anticipated. It was around normalizing stocks. When we look at depletions, actually, we see a strong growth of 8.9% over the period of the third quarter. So, actually, yes, the business is still performing quite strongly. It's just a change in the shipment scheduling.

speaker
Fernando Oliveira

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mr. Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Ricardo Alves

Hi everyone, thanks for the call. On your gross margin, can you go into more details about the main drivers? We struggle to understand the sequential deterioration, so the 270-300 basis points of deterioration versus the second quarter we we understand the Mexican peso volatility but in our view that was you know it was a little bit stronger sequentially speaking but not that much so and at the same time sequentially speaking your mix of region improved with the US recovering mix of product is also improving so is there any something else that we are not seeing on the other cost lines that maybe we lack visibility, just for us to understand the sequential deterioration. My second question on the commentary that you made on Agave, Fernando, I appreciate the forward-looking comments, but just to make sure we understood correctly, the company expects a better result or better margins flowing through on the basis of agave in the second half of next year. If that's the case, so first of all, I just wanted to make sure I understood that correctly. But then the second part of that question would be why shouldn't it be earlier? I thought that market prices of agave started to go down maybe by mid 2023, I would assume that based on the majority of your portfolio, mainstream tequila, maybe that would flow a little bit earlier. So maybe if you could elaborate on the math that the company is doing to anticipate a second half impact and a final follow up on rest of the world, just to understand. So it really seems that it was a September issue. Is that the reading of Europe? meaning that July, August were strong based on our conversations. But in September, there was a correction. And then maybe now, October, we're seeing more normalized, meaning strong numbers for the rest of the world. So this one is more of a clarification. Sorry for the long questions.

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Ricardo. As to your first question on gross margin, not only sequential but year-on-year erosion, we attribute the year-on-year 600 basis points gross margin erosion to FX on 400 basis points on that. And the remainder of the margin erosion has to do primarily with dry goods inflation. In certain instances, even double-digit dry goods inflation compared to last year. Bear in mind that we're still coming out of the supply chain crisis in which we had substantial cost pressure on dry goods inflation. As to your second question on agave, yes, we did state that we expect better margins, not until the second half of next year, because we still have inventory that needs to flow through the balance sheet, not only in terms of bulk, but also in terms of finished goods. Not until then will we expect to see any material improvements on agave costs in the P&L. Agave, as you note, just started to go down very recently. We, in particular, have not been buying agave. We have not been participating in the agave market for the last three months, but we understand that the price is going down. Regarding your third question on Roe and EMEA, Gordon, if you want to take that one.

speaker
Gordon Drone
Managing Director, EMEA & APAC Region

Yes, sure. So in terms of September, there is no impact in Asia Pacific. That continues to grow very strongly. Within the EMEA region, it would be fair to say, yes, the end of the summer period when consumers went home after the summer, there was a slowdown in September. In terms of how it will pan out for the rest of the year, it's clearly too early to say, but we would certainly hope there would be some improvement after a shock sort of September.

speaker
Ricardo Alves

Thank you very much, gentlemen.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you very much. Next question comes from Mr. Alan Alanis from Banco Santander. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.

speaker
Alan Alanis

Thank you so much for taking my question. I want to go back to the volumes in Mexico, the 16% decline, and understand a little bit better what's driving that. And the context of the question has to do with, I mean, we just saw yesterday the soft drinks, the Coca-Cola bottlers yesterday and today report volumes growing up in Mexico between 8% and 10%. we saw the Starbucks results also growing very strongly, double digits. It seems that the dynamics of consumption of alcohol, if that's the case, are different than the rest of the consumer products. Could you help us explain a little bit more what's happening on the ground to see a 16, a 1.6% decline in volumes in tequila in Mexico year over year, please? Thank you.

speaker
Olga Limon
Managing Director, Mexico and Latin America

Well, I think there are two different industries, for sure. We are seeing slightly less confident consumer versus pre-pandemic, which is causing some deceleration within the ultra-premium segments, as well as like channel shift from the on-premise to off-premise. So I would say there are two different industries, and we are seeing a contraction across the board in the industry. So it's too soon to say how the year will end. But we believe this is a contraction also because we had very high cons from last year.

speaker
Alan Alanis

Sure. And if I, just quick follow-up, how do you expect, and maybe this is more for Fernando, how do you expect SG&A to evolve in the next, in the coming quarters?

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, if you look at SG&A in the third quarter as a percentage of sales, we look a little bit SG&A heavy. But bear in mind that because of the ratio, because of the software, numerator, that makes us look SG&A heavy for the quarter. However, for the full year, we normally print a single-digit SG&A, so that should normalize as we go forward.

speaker
Alan Alanis

Got it. Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you very much. Our next question comes from Ulises Argote Bolio from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Argote Bolio

Hi, guys. Thanks for the space for questions. Actually, it was just a follow-up there for Fernando. My line kind of broke up a little bit when you were talking about that gross margin pressure and the impact that you saw on that from effects. So I just wanted to clarify that number. Was that 400 basis points coming from that expression?

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

That is correct, Ulises. We attribute 400 basis points of the margin erosion year-on-year on gross margin to the FX impact alone. Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mr. Ryan Levine from Barclays. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Ryan Levine

Hey, thanks for taking my question. So a bit more on the SG&A evolution, and especially in the quarter. Can you talk about it in Mexican peso terms? Because obviously a huge part of it is in USD or other foreign currencies, and there was a big FX impact on the quarter. Thanks.

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

Again, on SG&A, if you look at it on a quarter standalone basis, we do look SG&A heavy, but on a year-to-date basis, that figure is much more aligned to our historical trends in terms of SG&A. That SG&A level, if you compare it to industry peers, is also very competitive, so nothing Nothing material to report on SG&A. Yes, we do have inflationary pressures on SG&A, like everybody else. But other than that, SG&A is not necessarily a concern for us right now.

speaker
Ryan Levine

Okay. Sounds good. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay. Thank you very much. Next question is from Juan Jose Guzman from Scotiabank. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Juan Jose Guzman

Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the space for questions. Most of my questions have already been answered, so I have a quick follow-up here regarding Mexico. What is your outlook for the next quarters in this region, and what's the ongoing status of this boost distribution setback, and how long will it continue hitting your volumes? And additionally, have you considered if it will be necessary to do a branding permit of boost in the near future or by year-end? That'll be it. Thanks.

speaker
Olga Limon
Managing Director, Mexico and Latin America

Well, as for the outlook for the future in Mexico, I'd like to comment. We had two challenging months, July and August, but we did have a positive September with a good increase in repletions. Still saying that it's hard to predict at this moment, so we have to continue to monitor our overall bond portfolio and the market contraction very closely. We have a very broad portfolio with different price points, which allows us to be very competitive and catch the consumer if they trade down. In terms of the boost brand, we see things normalizing for the last quarter. We've passed the regulation issues, and so we think we're going to have a better quarter.

speaker
Fernando Suarez
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Just let me add on to Olga in terms of boost brand impairment. Boost is not subject to brand impairment tests because it's a brand that was developed and generated in-house. So it doesn't require brand impairment tests under the accounting standards.

speaker
Juan Jose Guzman

Got it. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you very much. We will, just a quick reminder, star two for any additional questions. Star two for additional questions. You may ask a voice or a text question if you are dialed in via the web. We'll give a moment or so for any additional questions to come in. Okay, it looks like we have no further questions at this point. Thank you very much for your time. We'll now be closing all the lines. Thank you and goodbye.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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