8/5/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to BFF Banking Group first half 2026 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be the opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over to Caterina Della Mora, Head of Investor Relations, Giuseppe Sica, Group CEO, and Luigi Luelli, Group CFO. Please go ahead.

speaker
Caterina Della Mora
Head of Investor Relations

Good evening and good afternoon to those joining us from other time zones. We will start with a presentation by our CEO Giuseppe Sica and our new CFO Luigi Lubelli, followed by Q&A. Let me hand over now to Giuseppe.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you, Caterina.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Let's start on slide two with the key highlights, which reflect our focus on execution and the strategic leveraging. which will have to continue in coming quarters. This focus on execution and the resilience of the bank has enabled us to grow adjusted net profit by 8% versus first half 2025, even in what remains and will continue to be a challenging environment. Our payments and security services business continue to perform well, as you will see in a moment. In line with our strategic leveraging, we are managing the factoring and lending business in a very disciplined manner. We must act decisively on calendar provision and have started to do so. Notwithstanding the anticipation of calendar provisioning from 3Q to 2Q, we have maintained our pro forma capital ratios above regulatory requirements as we said we would do. Finally, while we are pleased with our execution to date, we know that we have to address the effects of future calendar provisioning and are working to do just that. This is why we have a number of strategic options under review, which include, but are not limited to a possible securitization. A fundamental review in the MISES model is under consideration, and of course, this has to be in the interest of all shareholders. Moving to key financial metrics on slide three. PFF continues to be profitable with ROE for the first half well above 20%, close to 30. The business continues to perform in line with expectations across the board. Net revenues are up 9% year on year in what has been a complex first half for shareholders and employees alike. Adjusted net income is up 8%. Factoring loans are down 5% compared to year-end 2025. This is fully in line with our strategic deleveraging and focus on profitability. Deposits are down by a similar percentage, allowing for a constant loan-to-deposit ratio, which remains strong. It is not on the slides, as we are simplifying messages, but overall deposits grew versus Q1 2026. And finally, our performance CT1 ratio stands at 11.1%. This is up versus year-end, even if we had to face the impact of the Bank of Italy report for almost 30 million and close to 90 million impact from the anticipation of calendar provisioning. Let's look at net profit in more detail on slide 4. BFF's underlying business performance is resilient and drove an 8% increase in adjusted net profits. This is thanks to robust performance of transaction services, which goes up year on year and continues to invest for growth and is collecting successes. Discipline management of factoring and lending, as already mentioned, and lower volumes will continue over time as we address calendar provision. Collection focus remains high, and we've also strengthened our collection team. And finally, effective cost control. I would also like to point out that our reported net profits would have been up 3% year-on-year if we exclude the impact of the Bank of Italy inspection report. Group profit before tax is up 7%, demonstrating our ability to maintain profitability in the context of our focus on strategic deleveraging. A bit more of detail on the various divisions. PBT for security services and payments rose 15% year-on-year to 27 million euros. It would have reached 63 million if liquidity had been invested in Italian government bonds. This would generate over 120 million if annualized. Factoring and lending performance was mainly affected by portfolio de-risking. The derisking will be apparent as we talk about our net exposure to negative court rulings, which has gone down from $240 million at 2025 year-end to $100 million. Corporate Center has benefited from improved funding rates, focus on cost, and the HTC portfolios. I'm now going to hand over to Luigi for more detail on the numbers as well as the business performance.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you, Giuseppe.

speaker
Luigi Lubelli
Group CFO

Good evening, everyone. Firstly, I am delighted to have joined BSS and of having the pleasure of speaking to you today for the first time about our results. If we move to slide six, You can see the benefit of BFF's diversified mix of revenues, which I would like to draw your attention to. In H1, 64% of net revenues were generated by activities outside our factoring and lending business, and this compares to 58% a year ago. This diversified mix allowed us to continue growing net revenues year on year, despite a decrease In factoring and lending as a result of portfolio de-risking, which also resulted in significantly lower exposure to negative court rulings. As we already mentioned, the corporate center benefits from lower funding costs and larger HTC. In payments and security services, we benefited from higher commission income. We've now moved to slide 7, where we show you the net interest income, which was stable compared to the first half of 2025. This primarily benefited from an improved spread, which is up 21 basis points compared to a year ago, and offset the effect of a smaller loan book. This is a trend that was already observed in the first quarter of this year. The improved spread reflects our increased focus on internal rate of return, even excluding LPIs, as well as on quick collections, which has resulted in lower reschedulings. On slide 8, we'll look at fees and commissions. We continue to grow fees and commissions in transaction services, with security services achieving a 15% increase year-on-year, Thanks to commercial activity, including the onboarding of 15 new funds. On the payment side, the 4% growth was driven by a good performance of net commission income and we have a solid future pipeline. We would like to highlight today that among our new relationships, we have also partnered with Revolut and we have started rolling out specialized services for them. This partnership is supported by a strong pipeline of additional services to be launched over time, and that highlights our ability to attract and support leading neobank and fintech players with tailored capabilities for the Italian market. In factoring and lending, fees and commissions related to the servicing of third-party portfolios were broadly stable year on year, underscoring our expertise in this area. On slide nine, you can see our disciplined approach to cost management, which has allowed us to reduce our cost income ratio to 46%, even after inflation and accommodating for our continued investment in transaction services, focusing on system upgrades. In factoring and lending, you see an increase in costs, which was related to the review of processes.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

And now I give the word back to Mr. Sica. Thank you Luigi.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Let's look at our commercial performance on slide 10. In security services, both assets under depository and assets under custody grew in the first half of the year. The overall reduction in deposits is linked to the rebalancing of the group liquidity mix. In payments, commercial activity is picking up and with a significant improvement in deposits in Q2, which was up 18%. Finally, in factoring and lending, we've been pursuing a selective approach to loan origination focused on quality, profitability, and the risk in actions. The business remains highly profitable on an underlying basis, but we will continue to increase focus on profitability versus volumes. and improve operational effectiveness, which is key given the EBA definition of default. New ways to operate in the business will be needed in order to address the calendar provisioning. Moving to our help to collect Italian government bonds, we announced the repositioning of our portfolio on 28th of July. This included the sale and investment of around 30.1 billions of HTC bonds. This was fully aligned with the options set out in our Capital Conservation Plan and only has a marginal impact on recurring profitability. The impact was not conservatively included in the previous Capital Conservation Plan. Government bonds represent circa 40% of our total assets. This is also to protect the interests of all of our clients in the Transaction Services Division. Liquidity remains strong and stable, actually improving versus Q1. This also reflected in stronger liquidity ratios. In particular, improved NSFAR reflects lower past due. Online deposits growth, already observed in Q1, continued in Q2, making up for a slight decrease, 72 million, in the transaction services deposits. Cost of funding decreased significantly year on year while spread was broadly stable. Looking at the customer loan portfolio in slide 13, we already mentioned diversification is an important contributor to our resilience. This is also true for our customer loan portfolio. Driven by our selective approach in origination as well as improved collection, The factoring loan book has decreased by 11%, while factoring exposure accounted for less than half of the total loan book in the first half of 2026. It also benefits from geographical diversification, with Italian factoring representing just below a third of the loan book. Now let me move to slide 14 on asset quality. Net impaired loans have decreased 6% in the first six months of this year. The drivers of these results are probably more important. We made significant progress on our net exposure to negative court rulings in this period, which decreased by 60% and stands now at 100 million versus 243 six months ago. Net NPLs. Let me remind you, mainly represented by Italian conservatorships, are down by 25%. UTP increased due to the impact of Bank of Italy report on the classification of certain Polish public hospitals. The cost of risk at 12 basis points is more than double compared to 1H and reflects a more conservative approach to provisioning, still 12 basis points. This follows the significant cleanup effected at year end. Slide 15 shows the quality of our origination, which has allowed us to collect 95% of the 2025 volumes and already 70% of the first of volumes. In terms of positive collection, We have collected more than 2 billion euro in the first half, which corresponds to around 300 million of common equity year one. As I've already done in Q1, let me give you the details of our calendar provision impact on the next slide. As you know, we have anticipated the impact of calendar provisioning from 3Q to 2Q in light of the new EBA Q&A. We now have an impact of close to 150 million from calendar provisioning. It's a big number. But as of June 2024, the impact would have been around 400 million. We are therefore efficient in reducing the portfolio affected by the calendar and will continue to be so. The new declassification from Bank of Italy, which we affected at the end, adds additional burden, of course, as now also LPI are included in the contagion portfolio and tend to stay on our balance sheet for almost seven years. So it would be fully deducted from capital. That is why we are also exploring portfolio transactions, which, of course, will only happen if done at the right terms. Additionally, in the absence of external activities, Poland drives 35% of the estimated Q4 2027 calendar provisioning. That is why we have put in runoff a small factoring portfolio in the country, which contagies the rest and much larger of our profitable lending book in the country. And we should thus be able to significantly reduce the impact on calendar provisioning. On July 17, we provide more detail on our common equity to one ratio. As you can see, these improved both on a stated and on a performer basis. Importantly, our organic capital generation remains very strong at nearly two percentage points in six months. The combined impact of calendar provisioning and Bank of Italy report is lower than our organic capital generation. We are affected by the sale of HTC bonds at the end of July, which has allowed to respect all capital ratios on a pro forma basis, which was not the case at year-end. The sale was not included, as I already said, in our baseline projections on which our going concern status was based at year-end. A few additional points from slide 18. RWAs are down 500 million since year-end. RWA density has also gone down. Capital is up compared to year-end. and we respect all capital ratios on a pro forma basis, including MRL. Before we start the Q&A, I would like to summarize the key takeaways from the set of results on slide 19. BFR continues to achieve adjusted net profit growth thanks to its focus on execution. The transaction services business is performing well. In line with the De Riskin program, the factoring and lending business is managed in a disciplined manner. The pro forma capital ratios remain above regulatory requirements. And finally, the review of strategic options is ongoing. Thanks for your attention. We will now start the Q&A. To ensure that we can take everyone's questions, we kindly ask you to limit yourself to three questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. The first question comes from Tommaso Gnedu with Kepler-Chevreux. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tommaso Gnedu
Analyst, Kepler-Chevreux

Hello and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first one is on the calendar provisioning. You have described the calendar provisioning H1 impact as a phasing shift from Q3 into H1. Since calendar provisioning is a mechanical function of vintage aging, I was hoping if you can quantify what you expect from this same vintage in 2027, What guidance can you give today on the size and timing of those steps? I understand from the press release that it should still allow you to be compliant to requirements, but more info would be very helpful. The second question is on the securitization There has been no update on the timing. So would you still expect it to close for Q3 2026? And is investor engagement on the junior and meds tranches still active? The third question is on the press speculating on a potential split of the group. Separately today you have disclosed that the board has received preliminary non-binding expressions of interest from domestic and international parties. So can you clarify whether a full or partial breakup of them is one of the structure under active consideration or whether the expression of interest received relate to the group as a whole? Thank you a lot.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Thank you, Thomas. I'll try to answer to the best of what I can say today. In terms of calendar provisioning, we don't provide the Explicit projections, but we say that we respect all capital ratios in 2027. The number we have today, I expect to go down in the next couple of quarters as we collect part of what was reclassified in June 2024.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

And let me remind you in the first half of the year,

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Can you hear me?

speaker
Tommaso Gnedu
Analyst, Kepler-Chevreux

Yeah, now I can hear you.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Sorry, I had a problem, Thomas. I don't know. I will not repeat, but if I skip any other points, let me know. So what I was saying is we have already offset the first wave of calendar provisioning impact and the impact of 30 million from Banco Italy inspection report with our first half earnings and the leveraging. So These, as much as I would say, again, there should be an improvement of the next couple of quarters because of the collections we are making. As you've seen, we've gone from 400 to Thank you very much. which are fair and create capital for the bank. The board is not working on a split of the group and so we will have to analyze the various options that the bank has at its disposal.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you a lot.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Giovanni Razzoli with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Giovanni Razzoli
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon to everybody. I have a couple of questions. One is a clarification in slide number 16 So the 141 million euros of calendar provisioning impact is the one in the second quarter of 2026. Is it the one that is embedded in your CT1 ratio as of now following the anticipation of the decision of Bank of Italy to bring forward in the and the second quarter, the impact of the calendar provision. So that is my first question. And the second question is, if this 141 million euros is the one that is embedded in your CT1 ratio, and as we know that the calendar provision mechanically increases the coverage from 35% to 100%, After another one year of vintage, is it fair to assume that the second quarter of 2027 is another relevant cut-off for another potential significant impact of the calendar provision, all else being equal, so assuming that there are no collection or other managerial actions? So just to have an understanding of, on a static basis, what would be the impact on your CT1 ratio. And another question, can you explain, can you provide more details about the downsizing of the Polish factoring product So you mentioned that you are selling a small portfolio which is providing a significant impact in terms of contagion. Is my understanding correct? Thank you.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Thank you, Giovanni. Yes, the 141 billion is what is already deducted. from our capital as of June 2026. However, as you know, we already had around 50 million of calendar provisioning in the past, so it's not all from the reclassification. I think the one from the reclassification which we quoted in the previous press release was around 85 million, and they're good with numbers, so you can... work out what the 65% would be. However, as already said to Tommaso, we offset the 85% and the impact of Bank of Italy inspection report with one semester of earnings. and to do the inertial numbers or the mathematical numbers would assume no collections, but we are collecting and that's why we show what was the impact as of June 2024, what is the actual impact. So I would say you can run the numbers, you should certainly account for a reduction of... The overall impact because of collections and other measures that we are taking. On Poland, so I was not very clear, so we have a small book, it's around 100 million, of factoring-like products. and this factoring is often beyond 180 days and because of the letter which we received in March from Bank of Italy it was classified as PASDIU which was not the case before because it was a not notification factoring. So by running off or the leveraging, I didn't talk about disposal, by the leveraging and reducing this 100 million, the level of contagion on the lending book of Poland would reduce dramatically. And so we would expect a significant number of our lending book in Poland to go back from past due date. to performing, which makes sense because our hospitals continue to pay us regularly other than for this small factoring portfolio.

speaker
Giovanni Razzoli
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Basically, to make it clear, you are doing what I guess you are not in the condition to do now in Italy because the amount of contagion exposure also is much higher when compared to the contagious exposure, no?

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Yes, in Italy, in Poland, we collect this factoring on average in two years. So we can run it down quickly. And above all, the component of LPI is very small. In Italy, the impact of the LPI after the declassification of March is much more important. So we cannot collect this contagion exposure in Italy that quickly.

speaker
Giovanni Razzoli
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

And just a very quick follow-up, thank you for your clarification. Again, back on that slide, I would assume that the decrease from 400 million to 141 million euros, does this impact reflect also this effect of Poland, or is this something that we will see in the future?

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

No, it will be seen in the future. This was a decision that was taken, in fact, after the 30th of June.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Manuela Meroni with Intesa S.p. Please go ahead.

speaker
Manuela Meroni
Analyst, Intesa S.p.A.

Good evening and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the calendar provisioning. You said to respect the capital ratios in 2027. What about 2028? Do you have some updated expectation on 2028? The second question is on the strategic options that you mentioned on top of the circularizations. I'm wondering if you can please elaborate a little bit more on what you are working on. And the third question is on the impact of the disposal of the government-owned portfolio you made in the second quarter of this year. What will be the contribution of the government bond portfolio in the second half of 2026? And more in general, if you can confirm your guidance in terms of net income for 2026. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Okay, so...

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

On the impact of the bond portfolio on the overall profitability, I don't think I can give you a number, but it's less than a handful of million on a running rate basis. As you know, we have around one billion of bonds which yield 0.6% fixed which are going to expire in 2027 so we will largely more than offset the impact of this slightly lower net income. We have not updated our estimates for the year. You've seen how much we have delivered. In the first half of the year. On the securitization, I'm afraid I can't give you much more detail than what I've said before. I like to talk about things once I've done them. I've indicated what is the timing we are currently working towards. The calendar provisioning Yeah, we said we respect the ratios in 2026. We said we respect the ratios in 2027. In the context of the annual report, we said we had a small breach in 2028. Now, because of the anticipation of the calendar provisioning, one may have thought that we would have had a breach in 2027. We don't. and we don't because we have started to take actions and these actions are precisely the sale of the HTC bond portfolio which was not there, the deleveraging that I discussed a few moments ago with Giovanni on Poland and because the bank remains profitable. On 2028, we have a potential small capital breach. That is on the assumption that we don't do any of the actions which are in our capital conservation plan. There is some disclosure in the press release what these actions are. And I think we have many options that we can evaluate. We don't need to do all of them. So I'm not to concerned about our capital ratios in 2028. What is important for me to stress, and I take your question as an excuse to that, that we all have to understand that, yes, we can manage the calendar, we can address the capital ratios, but we have to rethink the way we do the factoring part of the business. to be able to generate more capital in the future.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Michael Nijinsky with Roche Capital. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Nijinsky
Analyst, Roche Capital

Hi, everyone. One question for me. Can we Rule out a capital raise, an equity raise at this stage. I mean, you've managed to, you know, protect your capital tier one ratio, you know, despite a number of headwinds and it looks like it's going to, you know, on an upward trajectory from here. Is it fair to say that a capital raise is not an option at this stage? Thank you.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

This was the same question I got asked at TRN, probably also first quarter, and I said that we are not working on a capital raise. We're not working on a capital raise because at the moment we don't need capital, but for the more fundamental reason that I said before to Manuela is We need to rethink the business model of the bank in factoring to be profitable and to generate capital. This is the prerequisite of anything that we are working on, frankly, the target for anything that we are working on.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Davide Giuliano with Equita. Please go ahead.

speaker
Davide Giuliano
Analyst, Equita

Hi, good evening and thank you for taking my question. I have three. The first one is on the depository bank. Can you give us some color on the reasons why depository assets are declining quarter on quarter and also the evolution of deposits both in depot and the payment business? In particular, we see a sequential decline in depot and a good increase in the payment business. So if you could provide us more color, it would be great. Helpful. The second one on loan loss provision, can you comment on the right backs, if I'm not mistaken, in the factoring and lending division and on the adjusted loan loss provision in the adjustment column, which seems higher than those required by the Bank of Italy? And the last one on NII evolution, can you explain better the decline in NII in the factoring and lending division, which, if I'm not mistaken, went from 65 million in Q1 to Thank you, Davide.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Let me say again, we are very pleased with the execution of the transaction service, both Dipo Bank and payment. Dipo Bank lost one client in the second quarter. This client communicated to us around two years ago. So before anything that happened to BFF, that they would leave the company and they went somewhere else. So that drives the decrease in deposits of the depository bank. At the same time, we have had many onboardings, and frankly, we are having more. We have had more in July, probably one important one yesterday. So that was to be expected. On payments, I'm happy that you noticed the increase of the deposits of the payments, because I said on the previous call that the decrease we had in the first quarter of the year was driven by a single counterpart that had gone out. So we have normalized that and it's under control. The profitability of the factoring and lending, I think the profitability of factoring and lending and the lower net interest income has been driven by a few factors. One has been the reduction In the loan book. And that's even more than offsetting for then even more than offset by the better pricing on the front book. But overall, the impact remains negative. The other thing is the derisking that we have taken in the factoring and lending with regards to negative sentences. So that has an impact also on the net interest income, which you have seen there. I think it will be much lower in the following quarters. Yes, and part of the releasing provision is precisely related to the retrocessions that we have been doing, which has had a negative impact Thank you very much. The 6% is a good number. It's not good enough, and we want to do better. But to have a business that yields 6% with the public administration as counterpart, excluding RPI, is not a bad number. Business proposition. I don't think you can and should assume that the net interest income is two-thirds maturity commissions and one-third S.p.A. That's for a variety of reasons. It's because the LPI also impacts negatively our interest income for the scheduling, but also the impact of the back book is not negligible. On the other hand, we do collect LPI's. So the reason why we give this number here is precisely to stress what I think was embedded in your question, which is probably the market is overstating the importance of LPI in our net interest income.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Tommaso Gnedu
Analyst, Kepler-Chevreux

No, no, thank you. Very clear.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is, comes from Sharada Patel with CT. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sharada Patel
Analyst, CT

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have three. So the first one, just coming back on the deposits, I know you've had a number of inflows, but have any other depositors started or said their intention to exit, started the process of outflows? And is there any risk around your deposit rating, anything that might be kind of contractual? and then my second question is on the capital conservation plan you point to potential issuance of tier two and senior. Have you sounded out investors already and how do you view the current market conditions? And then my last question is could you just explain in a bit more detail when you point to the potential valorization of assets? Thank you.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

No, thank you. Thank you for the questions. I think on Deposits have said probably most of the things to be said. We had this one client which communicated to the bank two years ago that they wanted to exit. Some clients have gone out. Some clients have gone in and more are coming in in July and August. So that's good in the depository bank. On the contractual exit rating, it is a topic which does not get too much of my attention in the sense that clients are always, or almost always, free to leave and they have not left. And when they leave, as the case of this client which I communicate, which I talked about a few moments ago, it takes a relatively long time. But anyways, we have not We are not seeing that. On the issuance of bonds, I think we are now leaving for the holidays. I hope to do a bit of holidays now. We'll see what happens when we come back or later if we want to wait. You asked also a question about Valorization of assets, I think I mentioned that we may consider, apart from the securitization, also small disposals if done in the right terms for the firm.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Stefan Suchet with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stefan Suchet
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you for taking my question, the three questions at my end. A follow-up on calendar provisioning. If I triangulate this 85 million euros of calendar provisioning for Q2 to get to 100% coverage, you would suggest an extra calendar provisioning in Q2 next year of 200 million euros. So is it fair to assume that you expect most of this headwind and many others. Secondly, you mentioned you need to rethink the factoring business. Could you expand on what that means? Does it entail, for instance, more regular usage of securitization? And lastly, in terms of issues, I understand obviously we go into the holiday season, but How do you think about your MRL ratio in the context of the bond due for call next year, the senior preferred bond due for call next year in March, more precisely? How do you approach, how do you think about this refinancing? Thank you very much.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Thank you, Stefan, for your question. I don't want to run into a debate about math, but if 85 is 35%, the 65 is not 200 million, it's much less. Second, that assumes that we do no collection. And we do collect. That's why we showed the slides going from 400 to 140. On the bonds, you know, I don't like to be at the level of capital I am now. We want to be higher, and that's why we're working on the options we are working on. There was another question, sorry, Stefano, which I missed, if you could repeat that for me.

speaker
Stefan Suchet
Analyst, Bank of America

My last question was really around the factoring business. You suggest the banking to rethink the factoring business. I'd just like to, if you could explain what that means effectively. Thank you.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Yes, I think the key issue of our business model is very simple, given the reclassification of March, which is the fact that LPI stay on our balance sheet for and they continue to generate a high level of past due. That's the part we need to deal with. What is the best way to deal with? It could be a recurring securitization, could be a partner to buy forward flows of LPI when they become past due. These are the kind of ideas which I remind among the others. We don't have to rush. We have to find the best one for BFF. And we don't have to rush because I think our calendar provisioning is not above 200 million and that excludes any capital generation and the leveraging of it. We can do with little arm to the business.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Domenico Maggio with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
Domenico Maggio
Analyst, Jefferies

Hello, good evening. So I have three questions. You mentioned the potential sale of a Tier 2. I was wondering at what level does the Tier 2 work on your side? I mean, I guess there is a ceiling above which you wouldn't want to go, just roughly speaking. The second question is, does the sale and the acquisition of the HTC bond portfolio is going to lead to a mark-to-market of this portfolio on capital going forward? And sorry to come back to the calendar provisioning, but don't you have an impact from the 1.3 billion reclassified at full year 25, which supposedly from the ABA Q&A should come two years after, so I would have thought that Q4 27. Basically, you have to bring provisioning at 35% on those 1.3 billion. Those are my three questions.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Thank you, Domenico. The tier two, no, I don't have a level in mind, but whatever level investors have in mind is too expensive for me, so we like to find a middle point. On the HTC mark-to-market, no, I don't see that risk. There is no level above which that becomes mark-to-market. On the calendar, yes, I think somebody at the very beginning of the call asked me, what are your projections? And we don't give the projections, of course, that we'll have to go into calendar. Now, the 1.3 is your number at the moment of the reclassification. That number, if that is right, is down by many, many hundreds of millions already now. And as I said during answers, 35% of that number is coming from Poland, which we can manage relatively quickly. I don't want to make things look easy, because I know things are not easy. There is a part which we can solve more quickly. There is a part like the LPI on which we have to study solutions, but absolutely there will be an impact from reclassification. It's in our numbers and we don't see capital breaches in 2027.

speaker
Domenico Maggio
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, just coming back on the HTC portfolio, why exactly there is no... I mean, I thought that the action basically triggered a different classification and therefore... As a reminder, if you have a question, please press star then 1.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Mr. Sica, back to you for any closing remarks. We don't have any other questions registered.

speaker
Giuseppe Sica
Group CEO

Thank you. Thanks to all the participants. And thanks for all the questions. And I look forward to speaking again soon in the context of our nine-month results or earlier in the various roadshows that we keep doing. And we are always happy to see investors.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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