7/30/2021

speaker
Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator. Fine, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, morning, or evening, depending on where you are. But independent of where you are, you must have seen a very good Q2 results. And in the usual way, I'll take you through the first two chapters of the results presentation before handing it over to you for Q&A. So in the second quarter, 2021, we have seen a progressive easing of restriction combined with adapted responses to the public health situation that continue to be more accommodating towards the economy. As a result, business activity moves solidly back on track, albeit with a differentiated momentum from one region, sector, or business to another. Against this backdrop, the BNP Paribas Group demonstrated yet again the strength of its diversified model, as well as its growth potential beyond the rebound that basically has already occurred. As you know, 2020 has been a very specific year given the pandemic. BNP Paribas showed the resilience of its model and delivered very good results in that context. But comparing our 2021 performances with 2020 does not fully illustrate our potential for growth. So in this presentation today, we will be more challenging and make comparisons with 2019. the year before the pandemic. In doing so, you will observe that we not only found back the pre-pandemic figures, but are above them as our platforms for growth are steaming ahead. Moving to the presentation now, focusing on the key messages first, so if you can turn to slide three. On the back of its strong, diversified, and integrated model, the group delivered a strong financial performance in the second quarter, with revenues up respectively 0.9% on the same quarter last year and 4.9% on 2019. So the revenues are basically driving growth. In particular, domestic markets performed very well, with a 9.5% hike in revenues, while CIB saw continued higher revenues following an exceptional second quarter 2020. IFS is catching up, but not yet firing on all cylinders. If we look at costs, on the other hand, they improved by respectively 2.3% on the second quarter 2020 and 3.5% on 2019. As a result, with no surprise, I would say, the group operated with positive jaws in the second quarter, while its gross operating income increased by 6.2% compared to the second quarter 2020, and by 21.5%, versus 2019. Next to that, there is the cost of risk, and it stood at a low level of 38 basis points over loans outstanding, and this without any overall release of Stage 1 and Stage 2 provisions. As such, cost of risk is below the 45 to 55 basis points indicated earlier this year. Hence, mechanically, A very steep rise in operating income, up 31% on the second quarter and 20% on 2019. Finally, if you look at the net income, it came in at 2.9 billion euros, sharply up from the same quarter last year and the year before. Not wanting to brag, but it also turns out to be the biggest and the highest quarterly net income on record for the group. While we are on the topic of historical comparison, the revenues generated in the first half 2021 was also the highest on record for the group. Turning now to the CET1 ratio, it clocked in at 12.9% in the second quarter. I just want to say that the trim exercise is now finalized and behind us, and basically nothing is in front of us, so this is the rhythm at which we are. Now, with respect to the distribution to shareholders, given our solid 2020 results and following the recent ECB announcement last Friday, the Board of Directors has launched the second step of the 2020 return to shareholders. In doing so, it proposes a cash dividend of 1.55 euros per share and this to a shareholders meeting to be held on September 24 to be paid on September 30th. Doing so raises the payout ratio on 2020 results to 50%, so 5-0, in accordance with our distribution policy. As such, it is without question an ordinary cash dividend. If we now go to the next slide, 4, which provides a summary of where the group stands on its trajectory. The year 2020 is a bit exceptional. We mentioned we compare 2019, 2020, 2021, and this over the first six months, and this for several levers of the P&L. As you can see, the group has delivered a strong performance on a quarterly basis as well on a half-year basis, as you see on this slide. Also, you can see that we have outperformed 2019 on all fronts. As such, the group has clearly demonstrated its potential for growth beyond the mere rebound to 2019 levels. It also shows total preparedness to capture growth. As a matter of fact, as you can see, the first half 21 net income is 300 million euros above the first half of 2019. It is the potential for growth that materialized in the first half. Indeed, The performance over and above 2019 stems from the potential for growth embarked for the near future over and above the effect of the rebound. This net income increment is structural in nature and a factual reflection of the strengthening of the group's franchises, in particular in CIB and the specialized businesses. It is also a reflection of operational efficiencies achieved on the back of the transformation plan as reflected in the improved cost to income ratio. So in a nutshell, on the back of the health crisis, our financial trajectory has essentially only been postponed by one year, and the group has not deviated from its long-term course. So results are on a path similar to what 2020 would have been without the pandemic. If we did, you can turn to slide six. You can see that the total exceptional items of the second quarter entailed an overall positive impact on the bottom line, stemming mainly from the capital gains arising from the sale of part of the old fund's shares. But if you look over six months, the overall exceptionals, including the single resolution fund, are negligible. If you now swipe to slide seven, you can see the performance of the group in the second quarter accompanied by positive jobs. As you can see from this slide, the financial performance has improved year-over-year on all fronts, from the revenue line all the way down to net income. More importantly, this has also been the case when comparing to the second quarter 2019. Hence, to echo the comments made earlier with respect to the healthier results on slide 4, it is clear that our current trajectory has already gone past the rebound to pre-crisis levels, and that we have entered a new phase of growth. Furthermore, to date, the group has delivered an annualized return on tangible equity of 10.6%, a level above our cost of equity. If we now look at the key elements, and if we start with revenues, slide eight, that increased by 0.9% group level. Now, if we look at the businesses, Domestic markets, they were up sharply on the back of a rebound in the networks, in particular at French retail banking, and a solid growth in specialized businesses. Let's zoom in on, for example, Arval. You will notice that they are up compared also to 2019. If we look at IFS, they were slightly up on a like-for-like basis, driven by a strong increase in asset management business lines and the growth in the top line at Bankwest and personal finances. The division saw, as it's called, international financial services, saw an unfavorable base effect for insurance and basically driven or impacted by the negative exchange rate effect, the fact that IFS has to be transferred in euros. Moreover, there was an unfavorable base effect for insurance despite the positive underlying performance and a more challenging environment for the networks on EuropeMED. So if we look at that, It's a good performance, but it is clear that IFS is not yet firing on all its cylinders. Lastly, we turn to the third one, CIB. So a very good level of revenues after the exceptional performance in 2020, driven by the diversification of business lines and the strength of the platforms. And this is what's strongly up compared to 2019. If you can now flick to slide nine, you see costs were down 2.3% at group level. Rapidly, if we look at the domains, domestic markets saw a 2.3% increase mainly in connection with the growth in specialized businesses, while costs in the networks remained flat. IFS costs were up 2.6% year-on-year with the recovery in business activity. Finally, CIB saw a significant drop in costs due to the high base last year stemming from the exceptional level of activity. If we now look at the cost of risk, and if you advance to slide 10, you can see, as I mentioned, that it stood at the low level of 38 basis points of loans outstanding, at the level some 634 million euros lower than in the same quarter last year. And this is mainly due to a low level in the impairment of non-performing loans, so-called stage three provisions. Besides, it's noteworthy that is low cost of risk was achieved with globally no release of provisions of performing loans, the so-called stages one and two. Finally, at 40 basis points of loans outstanding year to date, so over the first six months, the group's cost of risk stands comfortably below the 45 to 55 basis points range that I indicated earlier this year. If we now turn to slide 13 on the financial structure, you can see that our common equity Tier 1 was up 10 basis points compared to the first quarter at 12.9%. The 20 basis points increment stemming from the second quarter results, after taking into account a 50% payout ratio, was partially offset by a negative 10 basis points impact relating to risk models updating and regulation, of which the impact of TRIM, which is now finalized. And there is, as I mentioned earlier, there is nothing ahead of us. Our leverage ratio stood at 4.0%. It is noteworthy that we have opted for, we have not opted for the temporary exclusion related to deposits with the Eurosystem Central Banks authorized by the ECB on June 21. While the group's immediately available liquidity reserve totaled 488 billion euros at the end of the second quarter. I don't know what to say about this whopping amount. It is almost half a trillion euros. And what else can I say? That a big part of it should be redeployed for lending going forward. So the evolution of all of these ratios goes to confirm the very solid financial structure of BNP Paribas. And if with this you turn to slide 14, you can see that our net book value per share stood at 85.4 euros at the end of June and at 76.3 euros per share, the tangible net book value. And it was up 6.3% compared to a year ago. Actually, since 2008, it has grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 7%, thus highlighting our continued value creation through the cycle, well, the cycles. So if we now turn to the distribution policy on slide 15, As indicated earlier, the board proposes a 1.55 euros cash dividend to a shareholders meeting to be held on September 24. Including the 1.11 euro per share cash dividend already paid in May, the group will have delivered a 2.66 euros per share cash dividend by the end of September in line with the distribution policy set out in the 2016-2020 strategic plan consisting of in a 50% payout. While the Group's net income has been the most resilient amongst Eurozone banks, so will be its related dividend payment. Going forward, the Group will review its distribution policy together with the closing of its 2021 full-year accounts, in particular as part of the preparation of its 2025 Strategic Plan. The new distribution policy will be announced together with the 2021 full-year results early February. Well, early February, it's actually February 8th. So see you and hear you then. Taking into account the strong profitability and financial standing of the group, you could expect to see that the payout ratio will be moving upward and might contain a share buyback component. So if with this we turn to our ambitious policy of engagement with society, which you can see as of 17, I believe you are well aware of the group's long-lasting commitments towards the fight against global warming. As such, BNP Paribas was one of the first signatories of the net zero banking alliance. Through this initiative, the group is committed to aligning its greenhouse gas emissions to its financing activities through to the trajectory required to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. You can see in this slide the concrete steps the Bank has taken. If with this we turn to slide 18, as you also know, the group's commitments towards the protection of biodiversity are equally strong. Hence, three years after joining the Act for Nature initiative, the group has stepped up its commitments, including by evaluating corporate clients along a series of biodiversity criteria by 2025. Again, with very concrete actions. So with this, we have reviewed the group, and I would now kindly ask you to advance through the results by division that I'll synthesize for each of the three. So if I start with domestic markets, which basically you can peruse slide 20 to 24, but on the synthesis slide, you can see that domestic markets saw a sustained business drive this quarter. with a positive year-over-year evolution in loans, plus 4%, deposits, plus 7%, and even more markedly in off-balance sheet savings at plus 15.5%. With the rebound in economic activity, the division also saw a marked pickup in its transaction banking volumes across customer segments. This was evidenced in particularly through the rise in the number of incoming and outgoing payments for corporates, as well as volumes of card payments in particular in French and Belgian retail banking. The moment was also positive in private banking with close to 3 billion euros of net inflows this quarter. Besides, domestic markets saw an acceleration of digital uses with just shy of 5 million daily connections to digital apps on average, up 25% year on year. So this is also one of the elements that supported the bank to deliver strongly in this confined period. When we look at the P&L, revenues were up sharply, as I said earlier, by almost 10% compared to a year ago. Revenues were up in all three retail networks, especially in French retail banking with 12.7% evolution, driven mainly by a steep rise in fees, a common theme across the three networks. Even though low interest rates continue to weigh, the contribution of specialized subsidiaries combined with higher loan volumes have resulted in a positive evolution of the net interest income of the three retail networks taken as a whole. The specialized businesses of domestic markets also saw a sharp increase in revenues, in particular at Arval with an over 25% rise in revenues this quarter, and also nickel and leasing solutions. Costs were up 2.3% year-on-year with a stable evolution in the networks, while the specialized businesses saw an increase in connection with their business growth. As already mentioned, domestic markets operated with very positive jaws this quarter. As a result, gross operating income was up 23% year-on-year, and finally, cost of risk, as you saw, clocked in at a low level of 26 basis points. Hence, pre-tax income came in at 1.2 billion euros this quarter, marking a steep 39% rise on last year. When comparing also to the second quarter, it was up 9.5%, which goes to show the progress made by the division beyond a mere rebound to pre-crisis levels. To wrap up, domestic markets saw an increased level of activity this quarter, very positive jaws, and a steep rise in pre-tax income. If we now go to the second domain, IFS, slides 25 to 31, and you see that international financial services witnessed an overall strong business drive with business recovery and personal finance, sustained business drive in international retail networks, and a very good performance in savings and asset management. Zooming in on the business momentum this quarter, new loan production and personal finance evolved very positively with the easing of public health measures, but which, as you know, occurred later than expected. Even if the stock of loans is yet to recover its pre-crisis level due to the lower production in 2020, the momentum in new loan production is strong. This is evidenced, for example, by the June 21 monthly loan production surpassing that of June 2019. Besides, international retail networks saw good momentum in fees as well as an ongoing rebound in loan production. Lastly, asset gathering businesses saw good net asset inflows as well as favorable performance effect. Insurance saw strong underlying activity and real growth. as state services continue to recover from a low base a year ago. If we now look at the P&L, IFS revenues stood at 3.95 billion euros, a tad lower than in the second quarter 2020, taking into account an unfavorable Forex effect. On a like-for-like basis, revenues were a tad higher, and looking at the contribution of the various components, what do we see? First, revenues in personal finance were up 1.3% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes and a stepped-up new loan production. Second, revenues at constant scope and exchange rates in international retail networks saw contrasted evolutions. On the one hand, they were down 13.7% in Europe and the Mediterranean due to a decrease in net interest income, particularly in Turkey and Poland, partly offset by the positive evolution in fees. On the other hand, they were up 2% at Bankwest on the back of higher margin and fees increases in deposits and loan production. Third, moving to asset-gathering businesses, insurance revenues were down 7% year-on-year due to a high base effect last year despite a robust underlying performance in savings and protection. Lastly, wealth and asset management saw revenues jump up 22% compared to the same quarter a year ago, thanks in particular to the effect of strong net asset inflows, a positive performance effect in asset management and wealth, and a rebound in real estate services. If we turn to costs, they were up 2.6%, driven by the rebound in activity and ongoing investments for growth of projects. Pre-tax income up 20% year-on-year, or 21% on a like-for-like basis, on the back of a sharp decrease in cost of risk. To wrap up, the second domain, IFS, saw a good level of results this quarter, with an improved net income on the back of the drop in cost of risk. That being said, you can see that there is still an impact of the health crisis on some of the entities with a pickup still to be materialized. If with this, we turn to the third division, slides 32 to 35, corporate and institutional banking, which saw another strong quarter across all its businesses. It is really a tribute to the success of our client-centric approach which is combined with successful leading platforms that can deliver a broad and diversified range of products and services, and this in an integrated way. In the long run, it creates growth and a natural balancing effect on the revenues. I'll let you have a look at the graph on the right-hand side of this slide 32. We have not found a better illustration of how successful the model is and the strategy that we have been implementing for years. You clearly see the yearly stepping stones. If we start with the financing space, new business origination was particularly active in equity issuance while we witnessed a normalization in volumes raised in debt markets. As such, corporate banking improved its market share in equity capital markets while consolidating its leadership in debt. Loans were down 8% due to the normalization of volumes following the spike in utilization in the first half 2020. On the other hand, behavior stemming from the health crisis drove deposits up 7% year-on-year, with this trend seen reversing in the last three quarters. If we turn to global markets, we saw a strong activity in equity derivatives and prime services, while activity was generally normalized at high levels in absolute terms in rates, forex, and credit. Even though primary bond issuance was down this quarter on an exceptionally high last year, global bond volumes reached a level still 15%, 1.5, higher than the quarterly average in 19 and 20. Moreover, and in connection with the agreement with Deutsche Bank in prime brokerage, the transfer of clients was kicked off with the first batch successfully completed in July. Moreover, our plan to expand our cash equities and derivative services offering has reached an important milestone with the closing of the acquisition of 100% of exams in July. Lastly, security services saw an increase in assets under custody and funds under administration on the back of recent major mandate wins in Europe and the U.S. Also, with the closing of the acquisition of the depository bank business of Banco Sabadell, a deal announced last year, which has brought 21 billion euros of new assets to the business. In addition, transactions remained at a high level compared to last year, up 6% year over year. Zooming in on league tables for a moment, CIB reaffirmed its leadership in Europe through its rankings in loans and bonds, while it stepped up its development in the Americas in particular in transaction banking and cross-border transactions. Finally, the group confirmed its leadership in sustainable finance in Europe and globally with a number one ranking in global sustainable bonds and number three ranking in global green bonds this quarter. If we now turn to the P&L, given the exceptionally high base with respect to revenues achieved a year ago, and particularly in FIC, CIB revenues were down 9.9%, and up 19.8% compared to the second quarter 2019. And including on a like-for-like basis, a 2.5% increase in corporate banking with gains in particular in the Americas and EMEA. A very good level in global markets, some 200 million above the average quarterly revenue last year and a half a billion euros above the second quarter 2019. So these are my stepping stones that I showed you in the chart on page 32. And so it's up 35% compared to the second quarter 2019, even at historical scope and exchange rates. And thirdly, a 5.3% increase in security services, mainly on the back of the strong business drive and higher assets under custody. If we turn to costs of CIB, they were down 8% on the second quarter 2020, due in particular to the high base in 2020 on the back of the exceptional activity levels that we discussed. On top of this, there is a further decrease in cost of risk this quarter. So CIB generated 1.6 billion euros of pre-tax income, up 3% on last year and up 55% on 2019. So to wrap up CIB, strong performance in revenues in absolute terms and in income. If we now slide to 37 to have my conclusions on the presentation and then hand it over to you. As key takeaways, I would like to keep in mind. One, the group has delivered strong results driven by the strength of its diversified and integrated model with its highest quarterly net income on record up 26.6% on last year. Second, the group's trajectory has already moved past the rebound and has already started delivering on its growth potential. Three, the trends for 2021 remain very well oriented with a revenue growth stronger than originally expected, a positive JAWS effect and stable cost, excluding the parameter effect and taxes subject to IFRIC 21, a cost of risk at a low level and below the 45 to 55 basis points range indicated earlier. Four, following the recent ECB announcement, the group has swiftly undertaken the second step of its 2020 return to shareholders and is proposing a 1.55 euros cash dividend to a shareholders meeting on September 24 to pay September 30. Fifth, the review distribution policy will be announced upon the presentation of its full year results on February 8. Last but not least, the 2025 strategic plan paving the way for the group's future growth will be presented in the first quarter 2022. Fine ladies, gentlemen, I thank you for your kind attention. I am now very pleased to take your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press 01 on your telephone keypad. Please lift your handset, ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off, and that you are in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. We will take questions in order received, and we will take as many as time permits. If you found that your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing 02. Again, please press 01 on your telephone keypad. We have one first question from Mr. Kiri Vijayarajah from HSBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kiri Vijayarajah
Analyst, HSBC

Yes, good afternoon, Lars. A couple of questions on the retail side to begin with, if I may. So when I look across your retail businesses and the strong fee performance there, I was just wondering how much have you actively been pushing price increases or repricing effects versus just the more kind of normalization of retail activity levels or payments? uh, volumes, et cetera, as we come out of, uh, lockdown. So how much is, you know, uh, you pulling specific levers versus client activity flows, uh, and then specifically drilling down on our vow and the revenue jump there. I'm just wondering, has there been any right back of, um, vehicle residual values this quarter that's boosting the revenue line that we need to be aware of? Or is that kind of 25, 26% year-on-year growth more, again, just a base effect from a very depressed 2Q level? So just some detail on the R-VAL revenue jump, please. Those are my two questions.

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