11/3/2022

speaker
Marie
Conference Call Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of BNP Paribas Third Quarter 2022 Results. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IRO website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your question by pressing 01 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would like now to hand the call over to Lars Marchenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Lars Marchenil
Group Chief Financial Officer, BNP Paribas

Thank you, Marie. Good afternoon, fine ladies, gentlemen. I trust you're doing well, and welcome to BNP Paribas' third quarter 2022 results presentation. Perusing the presentation, the progress on our plan GTS 2025 and its efficiency stands out. You will see the plan at work. through the solid third quarter results with the bottom line up 10%, accompanied by JAWS at the group level as well as divisions. Moreover, you will see many examples of growth levers, technology rolling out and sustainability stepping up, GTS. On growth in particular, you will see our unique position, BNP Paribas' unique position in accelerating our organic growth via bolt-on acquisitions, enhancing the profitability even further. In the usual way, I'll take you through the first chapters of the result presentation and then hand it over to you for Q&A. So moving on to this core presentation, let's focus on the key messages first, slide three. Indeed, the group results were strong, combining revenue growth, positive jaws, and a prudent risk management. These performances illustrate our unique positioning and competitive edge in Europe based on our client-centric approach, the strength of our leading franchises and scalable platforms, as well as our capacity to sustain growth through a robust business momentum. Looking at group revenues, they were up sharply 8%, stemming from the three divisions with a solid increase by CIB strong growth at CPBS, and a strong rise for investment and protection services. Supporting the growth in activity, costs have increased by 6% and by 2.8% on a like-for-like basis at group level, and this compared to a year ago. Half the increase was due to scope and exchange rate effects. So what you can see is that the group continues to benefit not only from a strong potential for growth, but also from a strong operational performance delivering, what else can I say, strong positive jaws of two points. Underlying group cost of risk stood at 31 basis points over loans outstanding as a testimony to our sound long-term and proactive risk management. All in all, a steep rise in the group's net income, clocking in at 2.8 billion euros, up 10%. Turning to the group CET1 ratio, standing at 12.1% in the third quarter, with an ROTE at 11.4%, as an illustration of our reinforced profitability. So, in a nutshell, very good and clean results again this quarter, demonstrating our unique setup and delivery as articulated in the GTS 2025 plan. And, of course, disciplined growth seen through our positive draws. If we now switch to, or slide to, whatever it is, slide four, you can see that BNP Paribas model has delivered, since the third quarter of 2018, a sustained growth in net income averaging 4%, maintaining a well-balanced contribution from our three divisions. On the bottom left chart on operating expenses, we have evidence the impact of Forex and scope effects, which explain a significant part of the increase quarter on quarter. The remaining part represents a 2.7% increase in operating expenses resulting from organic growth as inflation is basically counterbalanced by our recurring savings which have materialized once again in the third quarter. To illustrate our ability to deliver positive jobs, I remind you the key drivers which structurally sustain them. First, a strong potential to grow at marginal cost on the bank of our leading platforms. Second, a constant focus on operational efficiency and the commitment to deliver net cost savings evenly throughout the plan. And this leads to a group's JAWS effect standing at two points with positive JAWS in each division. If we now go to slide five, where you can see that our model is providing a solid base for growth fueled by additional recurring income stemming from strategic developments finalized in 2022, and this basically for each division. These investments have been conducted with three main objectives, which are at the core of our strategy and sustained by our diversified and integrated model. First, acceleration in organic growth, leveraging our leading platforms. investments in new technologies and innovative business models and third bolt-on acquisitions in value-added businesses in line with the strategy of these businesses so no wild goose chase but a very focused and stepping stone approach for example in 2022 we broadened our offer and invested in new technologies be it at cib with a strengthening of the equities franchise, or within CPBS in the payments and e-commerce areas with Flora, and more recently, for actually both divisions, Cantox, an automated platform for currency risk management for corporates. Furthermore, we accelerated growth with targeted acquisitions and partnerships for asset management, Arval, and personal finance. And last, we adapted our operating model to deliver even more efficiency and achieve a better quality of service, as illustrated by our partnership with BPOS Bank in Belgium, as a complementary and differentiated distribution channel. All these acquisitions and partnerships should provide more than €1.4 billion in revenues as soon as 2022, and around €2 billion on a full-year basis with their ramp-up. This accelerated growth is allowed by our solid capital position. It has led to an impact on our CET1 to the tune of 20 basis points, with an estimated related return already up to 10% in 2022 and forecasted at 17% in 2025. This process of this redeployment will continue to be stepped up, and is to be supported by the capital to be released with the sale of Bank of the West, a solid bedrock upon which the group will continue to accelerate its growth, aside an extraordinary distribution by way of share buyback to neutralize the expected dilution for a global amount of around 4 billion euros. Furthermore, this growth is also accompanied by the positive effect related to the interest rates hikes, which have materialized in the past quarters, and were not taken into account when we made and announced the plan GTS 2025. On this effect of the rates and the associated with management actions, they should generate a positive impact on the net interest income in 2025 at the level above 2 billion, over and above which was provided in the target in February. Let me reiterate that growth will continue to be disciplined with a clear and firm focus on positive jobs as demonstrated again this year. So with this, if we advance to slide six, where we see that thanks to our long-term prudent and proactive risk management policy, we have built a portfolio of a high quality in terms of risk profile. As you know, This is a real and proven differentiating stance, as illustrated by our cost of risk on gross operating income, so revenues minus cost, which is one of the lowest amongst European peers. In addition, we have continuously improved our risk profile since 2012, be it by adapting our product mix or exiting gradually certain geographies, businesses or sectors. It is the case, for instance, in Italy, where cost of risk has significantly decreased from around 120 basis points back in 2016 to around 60 basis points this quarter as a result of a repositioning in our client portfolios. And this is also the case in personal finance, where the greater focus on, in particular, auto loans with an average cost of risk of around 45 basis points structurally drives the decrease of costs of risk. Not to mention our prudent provisioning policy with an additional forward-looking 710 million euros provisioning in the second and third quarter of this year pertaining to the indirect effects of the invasion of Ukraine as well as higher inflation and interest rates. Finally, our coverage rate of doubtful debt clocks in high at 73% thanks to this prudent approach and high level of collateralization. So in a nutshell, our stance makes us well prepared for potentially tougher times and comforts our guidance of 40 basis points every year. If we now turn to slide eight, you can see the exceptional items for the third quarter and they are basically negative on the whole. Two thirds is due to the impact of the specific law passed on credit holidays in Poland for an immediate negative impact of 204 million euros that we registered in the cost of risk. The remaining is linked to the restructuring costs as well as IT reinforcement. If with this, you swipe to slide nine, you can see the strong performance of the group in the third quarter accompanied by a strong return on tangible equity. The financial performance has improved year over year on all items, all the way down to the bottom line, leading to a net income up by, what else can I say, a handsome 10% year on year. On track with the plan, the group has delivered a return on tangible equity of 11.4%, with an earnings per share up by 12.8% year on year. So this is a synthesis of the group. And if we now move to the revenues of the operating divisions, which you can see on slide 10, so they grew with a solid 8.3% year-on-year, 5.3% on a like-for-like basis. This charming growth has been achieved on the back of a strong performance from all divisions. We're emphasizing the strength of our model. And as there are three, let's start to the first. CIB revenues grew by a solid 5.9%, 2% on a like-for-like basis, with very good results supported by a buoyant client activity, strong performances in global markets and security services combined with a resilient global banking in a tough market. Second, a strong momentum for CPBS with a 9.6% increase on the back of our commercial and personal banking activities with a strong performance notably in France Luxembourg and outside the Eurozone. Furthermore, this quarter, our specialized businesses had a very strong growth. Last, but not least, of course, in a subdued market environment, IPS delivered a strong increase in revenues at 8.9%, with in particular good performances in insurance and wealth management. If I can now ask you to flick to slide 11, costs. up 5.9% or 2.8% like for like. And this in the operating divisions, as we mentioned, and generating strong positive jaws in these operating divisions of 2.4 points. Costs mainly accompany the strong business growth, combined with on top a significant forex and scope impact as described earlier. It is again a tribute to the high operational efficiency of our leading platforms and ability to grow at marginal cost. Again, if we look at the three divisions, starting with CIB, the division delivered positive jaws at 1.4 points. Costs were stable on a like-for-like basis. For CPBS as well, positive jaws, 2.6 points, thanks to continued cost savings and transformation in the operating model. costs were up 4.5% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in line with strong growth in activity and scope. Third, IPS, costs were up 4.8% year-on-year, supporting the business as well as targeted investments, generating a very positive JAWS effect of 4.2 points. Staying in the operating divisions and looking at the cost of risk, slide 12. You can see that it stood at the low underlying level of 31 basis points of loans outstanding. And this, excluding the exceptional impact on Poland, slightly lower than in the same quarter last year. So what does this stem from? First of all, low impairment on non-performing loans, so-called stage three provisions. And second, our prudent approach leading to ex-ante provisions, so-called stage one and two, on performing loans, in relation to the side effects of the invasion of Ukraine and higher inflation and interest rates up with a tad shy of 200 million euros this quarter and 710 million euros adding the provisioning in the second quarter. You can see on slide six. Both are again a tribute to the quality of our portfolios and prudent risk approach. Now, moving on to each business one by one, you will see the same cost of risk pattern So low level of cost of risk across the board as we don't see deterioration in credit quality. If we now turn to slide 15, you can see that our common equity T1 ratio stands at 12.1%. The CET1 ratio was down 10 basis points versus a quarter ago, stemming from basically three levers. First of all, a plus 10 basis points organic capital generation on the back of the contribution of the third quarter results. after setting aside 60% for distribution and net of the organic growth of RWAs, plus 10 basis points. Then there is a forex effect of 10 basis points, minus 10 basis points, given the strengthening of the US dollar. And thirdly, there is a minus 10 basis point impact of market prices on OCI, given the fact that both debt and equities were moving in the same way as basically we have seen for most of the banks coming out with results. Looking through the temporary impacts on CET1, you observe that BNP Paribas is in great shape and as such has continued to accelerate our growth by supporting our clients and the economy. Moreover, the benefit from the capital that will be realized by the sale of Bank of the West, I remind you around 7 billion after the neutralization of the expected dilution, is the bedrock upon which the group will continue to accelerate growth while ensuring a solid level of CET1 consistent with the 2025 objective. Our leverage ratios stood improved at 3.9%, increasing by 10 basis points with a trajectory to be accelerated to reach our target at 4.2% through the ramping up of 81. Then to top up the overall view at the group and before going into the businesses, you see that on slide 16, you can see the usual steady growth of our tangible net book value per share, standing at 79.3 euros, up 2.5 euros compared to last year. And also, as you know, the bank is acting as a responsible and sustainable bank, and acting, I mean, it's at the heart of BNP Paribas' company purpose and is a key pillar of our 2025 GTS plan, as demonstrated by the impressive list of actions, commitments, partnerships that you can see on slide 17 and 18. The group is fully engaged around five major priorities, combining levers as per the United Nations goals, sustainable development goals. First, savings, sustainable investments and financings. Secondly, transition to carbon neutrality. Third, natural capital and biodiversity. Fourth, social inclusion. And five, circular economy. Besides, the group has also been recognized for the best net zero progress of the year in EMEA-GAI environmental finance. BNP Paribas has also been distinguished as the only bank with the FNOR Alliance label for its actions on diversity, inclusion, and professional equality. To top it off, I leave you to scan slide 18 on internal control and compliance emphasizing the rigorous and diligent implementation of all the necessary measures to the enforcement of international sanctions. So it is. I would now kindly ask you to advance to the first quarter results by division, starting with slide 21 on CIB, which saw another quarter of very good results thanks to a strong client activity building on its stronger-than-ever to support clients. Indeed, the business activity was solid again this quarter, confirming CIB leading market shares in financing for EMEA as well as in transaction banking. The division is also consolidating its leadership on multi-dealer electronic platforms. So first, in an unfavorable context, a resilient performance of global banking with revenues down 7.9% compared to a high base a year ago, they were impacted this quarter by markdowns on unsold leveraged financing syndication positions, as it was the case in a more marked way for our peers, particularly in the U.S. In this context, revenues held up well, supported by strong gains in trade finance and cash management in all regions, and a particularly high growth for APAC. In a nutshell, a strong resilience for global banking, with further gains in market shares in financing in EMEA. The second part of CIB, supported by a sustained overall client activity, global markets revenues grew strongly at 14.7% thanks to a high demand from our clients in hedging across the board and geographies, and in particular, a very good performance in commodity derivatives rates, Forex, and emerging markets. So basically all letters in FIC if you want. Hence, a very good performance for that FIC with revenues up sharply 25% year-on-year. Moreover, our equity activities also show the good momentum on derivatives, as well as a good contribution from prime services, but a less favorable context for primary and credit activities. In this context, revenues increased by 3.3%. To illustrate the new dimension of our equity business, revenues have more than doubled compared to 2019. And last but not least, You know that digitalization and industrialization are key. Our leadership was again confirmed with our number one positions on multi-dealer electronic platforms across markets. The third part of CIB, security services, achieved again this quarter a very high volume of transactions on the back of a strong business drive. In a challenging environment, assets held up well on the back of the rollout of a major new mandate won in 2021 and 2022. and this sustained by a diversified setup towards buy and sell side, further boosted by the positive impact of the interest rate environment. Revenues increased by a material 10% year-on-year, very strong performance. As this resulted in a more than decent increase in CIB revenues, up 5.9%. Total CIB costs were up 4.5%, driven by mainly exchange rate effects. They were stable on a like-for-like basis and accompanied by a positive Jaws effect of 1.4 points. Gross operating income, so the difference between the two, was up 8% and accompanied by a low cost of risk. Hence, CIB generated 1.4 billion euros of free tax income, up 3%. To wrap up the first division, a very good performance for CIB as a continued illustration of our leadership position served by the new dimension of the platform, structuring our ability to match and serve corporate and institutional client needs while sticking to our prudent approach. So that's the first division. If you now turn to slide 25 to 33, commercial, personal banking, and services. As you can see, CPPS benefited from a sustained business drive. Hence, results were up sharply with very positive results. In the new digital business, first, Nikko continued its development in Europe, as well as the acceleration of accounts opening this quarter in France and Spain, reaching more than 2.9 million accounts open since inception, of which more than 1 million over the last two years. Second, Floa continued to have a good level of production, with 4 million customers at the end of September. Arval confirmed a very good performance, supported by the expansion of the finance fleet, plus 5%, and used car prices remaining high. Outstanding is increasing with a good resilience of the business at leasing solutions. If you now look at the balance sheet, both sides, loans, deposits. Loans were up 8% and deposits grew 7% across all businesses. Moreover, the division continued the transformation in its operating model and investments in new technologies, further reinforcing its ability to serve clients For instance, with the acquisition of a platform of automation of foreign exchange currency risk management for corporates. In terms of P&L, CPBS revenues were up by a vivid 9.6% on the second quarter, with a strong performance in commercial and personal banking and a steep increase in specialized businesses. Starting with commercial and personal banking, revenues are up 7%, benefiting from a favorable interest rate environment and increasing volumes, so net interest income increased by 8.4%. If we look at France, net interest income increased by 4.7%, while in Europe, it increased up to 22%. It was more contrasted when we look at Belgium as a result of a base effect of last year. At BNL, the positive impact of increased volumes and interest rates environment was offset by the gradual adjustments in loan margins. Then, if we look at the other part of the top line, fees, dented by unfavorable market performances, but boosted by our leading positions in flow businesses and favorable positioning on corporates, private banking, and mass affluent clients, the fees increased shy of 3% year on year. They marked a steep rise in France, up 7.7%, on all customer segments, and more specifically, with corporate clients. Elsewhere in the Eurozone, the growth in banking fees was counterbalanced by the decrease in financial fees as a result of the unfavorable market environment. If you now look at the specialized businesses within CPBS, revenues were up 14.7%. In it, Arval and Leasing Solutions saw a sharp increase of 32.9% on the back of high used car prices, as well as volume growth. Personal finance saw revenues up 5.8%, topped up by the integration of floor and loan production volumes increased by 8% on last year, despite a lackluster environment in the automotive industry. So that's basically the top line in CPBS. And then if we look at the operating expenses, they were up 7%, reflecting the strong business momentum with strong positive jaws, 2.6 points. On a like-for-like basis, operating expenses are up 4.5%, reflecting the capacity of our commercial and personal banking networks to contain their costs and deliver operational efficiencies. Similarly, the specialized businesses confirmed their potential to grow at marginal cost with an extremely high positive jaws effect for our end-leasing solutions. Very high, basically 24 points. Regarding our risk profile, allow me for a focus this quarter on BNL and personal finance. You can see on the slides 27 and 31 the results of our initiatives over time to constantly improve our cost of risk charge on these two main contributors. Indeed, start with BNL. Portfolio has been moved away from very small enterprises toward larger corporates with higher intrinsic asset quality, higher growth, applying high selectivity at origination, higher recourse to guarantees, and finally, an acceleration of the NPL strategy. It resulted in a structural decrease in the cost of risk from around 120 basis points back in 2016 down to 57 basis points in the third quarter. Secondly, if we look at personal finance, where also we stepped up the proactive risk management and structural changes leading to an improved risk profile. As illustrated, the auto business represents now close to 40% of loans outstanding with a much lower intrinsic cost of risk at 45 basis points versus 190 basis points for personal loans. Moreover, the portion of credit cards fell to 11% of the mix. To conclude, a strong quarter for CPBS overall with a pre-tax income at 2.1 billion euros up 8.6% combining strong business momentum and a continued overall efficiency with, once again, positive jobs. Let's now move to slides 34 to 37, where you can see that our investment and protection services, so the IPS division, witnessed an overall good business drive despite the market environment and displayed a strong growth in results. And this, in a difficult market context, net asset inflows held up well. In wealth management, business activity was good this quarter, on the back of good net asset inflows, notably in France, as well as with high net worth clients. Despite these challenging market conditions, asset management achieved positive net inflows this quarter, emphasizing the resilience of the business model. saw a continued business momentum with a good performance on savings and protection. Gross inflows were strong in France and unit links represented the bulk of net inflows. Simultaneously, ESG is deeply embedded in the business with the distribution of open-ended funds classified Article 8 and 9 according to the European regulation. The alignment of our insurance investment portfolios with a carbon neutral trajectory and the launch of a property fund with a social dimension. So this is the overview. So if we now look at the P&L, IPS revenues increased sharply at 1.6 billion euros, up 8.9%. This is the result of a good performance of insurance, up 7.2%, despite the decrease in financial results caused by the more pronounced decline in market. It is also the result of the very good performance on the whole of wealth and asset management, plus 10%, reflecting a notable increase in wealth management on the back of a solid increase in net interest income, as well as a strong contribution from principal investments and real estate property management. Costs, up 4.8%, driven by business developments and targeted investments. The division delivered very positive jaws, 4.2 points, and pre-tax income was up 34%, with a very strong performance, particularly in this context. So to wrap up, strong results for IPS in a very adverse market. If we now switch to slide 39 and 40, which conclude today's presentation. So in a nutshell, BNP Paribas is in great shape for growth. One, growth in revenues, positive jaws, prudent risk management at the core of the solid performance developed by the group through the past quarters. Second, BNP Paribas model is a clear competitive advantage which drives our ability to serve clients and increase revenues. Third, our operational performance keeps on being high resulting in positive jobs and our cost of risk remains low on the back of our long-term proactive and prudent risk management. Four, in a nutshell, a powerful model which outperforms the underlying economy delivers a 10% growth in group net results this quarter and will ensure the successful execution of the 2025 GTS plan. So this concludes the third quarter. So fine, ladies, gentlemen, I thank you for your kind attention and I am pleased to take your questions.

speaker
Marie
Conference Call Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you would like to ask a question, please press 01 on your telephone keypad. Please leave to your own set, ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off and that you are in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. We will take questions in the order received and we will take as many as time permits. If you find that your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing 02. Again, please press 01 to ask a question. First question from Tariq El-Mejad from Bank of America. Sir, please go ahead.

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