2/7/2023

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas 2022 full-year results. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star and 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would now like to hand the conference over to Jean-Hélène Bonnisset, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir. Jean-Hélène Bonnisset, Group Chief Executive Officer Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
Group Chief Executive Officer

So good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I trust you are well and welcome you to the presentation of full year 2022 results and update of the Group's 2025 targets. As usual, at the end of the presentation, we'll be pleased to take some questions. So jumping to our key messages on slide three, you can see that 2022 marked again a year of strong growth in business activity and earnings for BNP Paribas. Our 2022 results confirmed the key ingredients of a successful execution of our strategic plan growth, technology, and sustainability 2025, and the relevance of our business models. Indeed, the group's solid model and its ability to support customers and the economy globally continued to deliver a very healthy growth in net income of 7.5% compared to 2021, and 19% excluding exceptional items at €10.2 billion. The group delivered a strong revenue growth of 9% year-on-year, stemming from all three divisions, with a significant increase by CIB up 15.7%, a strong growth at CPBS up 9.3%, and a rise in investment and protection services up 3%. Our growth is disciplined. We delivered a positive Jaws effect of 0.7 points, 1.5 points excluding the contribution to the single resolution fund. If costs increase up to 8.3% at historical scope and exchange rates, 55% of this increase is due to exchange rates and scope effects, as well as the impact of the single resolution fund increase and specific adaptation needs, Bank of the West in particular. It's a strong confirmation of our ability to grow organically at marginal cost. The group continues to benefit from its long-term, prudent, and proactive risk management. Hence, cost of risk was low at 31 basis points of loans outstanding. Group 41 ratio increased by 20 bps thanks to organic growth and clocked in at 12.3% as of December 2022 and will go up to 14% now that the sale of Bank of the West is closed. On the back of our solid results, and as per our commitment of a return to shareholders of 60%, we will return 5.8 billion euros in ordinary distribution. This ordinary distribution is split between a cash dividend of 4.8 billion euros or 3.90 euros per share, equivalent to a 50% payout, and a share buyback program of 962 million euros, equivalent to a 10% payout. In addition, and as we closed the sale of Bank of the West a few days ago, we confirmed a €4 billion additional share buyback program to compensate for the dilution related to the sale of Bank of the West. Hence, an overall share buyback program of €5 billion globally for 2023 to be executed in two equivalent tranches given its size and time needed to execute buybacks of this magnitude. A first tranche of €2.5 billion has already been submitted to the ECB for approval. The second one, will follow with a view to be fully executed before year end. So in a nutshell, very solid results and a good start to our 25 strategic plan. Going to slide four, 22 has been marked by the sale of Bank of the West. And I would like first to warmly thank Bank of the West and BNP Paribas teams who have been working closely with BMO these last months in order to prepare the closing of the transaction and the transition to BMO. This closing on February 1st, 23, opens a new page in our history. Let me remind you some figures which illustrate the value created with this transaction. First, a fixed price transaction for a total consideration of $16.3 billion, representing 1.72 times the tangible book value. A transaction which results in a net capital gain of around 3 billion euros, to be counted for in the first quarter 23 and a release of a common equity tier 1 capital of roughly 11.6 billion euros or an equivalent of 170 bps in core tier 1 ratio. As indicated, on one side, we will compensate the EPS dilution with a share buyback of 4 billion euros. On the other side, the remaining 7.6 billion euros or an equivalent of 110 bps in core tier 1 will be invested over time in a disciplined way with the aim of accelerating long-term shareholder value creation through BNP Paiba diversified and integrated model. We benefit from a unique positioning with strong and leading platforms and cloud franchises and shown track record of increase in market shares in key European businesses. So our priority will be to boost on organic growth. This is what we do best with limited execution risk and immediate return on equity. Then we intend to do some targeted investments in technologies and innovative and sustainable business models. Finally, potential bolt-on acquisition in priority sectors. So redeployment of the proceeds put BNP Paribas in a unique position to accelerate and step up long-term growth. Now on slide five, you can see that it provides a first level allowing the group to accelerate its growth with approximately €3 billion additional revenues by 2025. The redeployment will be disciplined on the basis of a cost-income ratio of 60% and a return on tangible equity of 12%. Moreover, a second lever will be the positive impact of higher rates. We expect to see a €2 billion plus positive impact on NII across the group by 2025, stemming from interest rate hikes, having taken place in 2022. In particular, CPBS will benefit from it to the tune of 80%, and we expect to see around 40% of it in 2023, mainly in commercial and personal banking in the Eurozone. On the strength of our 2022 results, and with an additional growth potential of €5 billion, BNP Paribas reaffirms and confirms the importance and relevance of the strategic pillars of its growth, technology and sustainability 25 plan and revises upwards its ambitions. We are thus significantly revising upward our initial target for compound average annual growth in net income of more than 7% to a target of more than 9% between 2022 and 2025. We are also anticipating a stronger and steady compound average annual growth in EPS of more than 12% or a 40% increase over the 2022-2025 period as it will be boosted by the execution of share buybacks each year and particularly in 2023. Of course, the growth will remain disciplined with positive Jaws effect each year and averaging 2 points. On this backdrop, switching to slide 6, you will see that 2023 is a pivotal year. As such, We have decided to adjust upward the 2023 Distributable Result to reflect our new trajectory resulting on one side from the sale of Bank of the West and on the other side from the end of the ramp up of the Single Resolution Fund. As a matter of fact, looking forward, first, we anticipate our organic growth in 2023 to offset more than the perimeter effect related to the sale of Bank of the West. Second, our unique positioning permits us to do as if the ramping up of the single resolution fund was behind us and not impacting 23. And to do that, we have decided to adjust the distributable income upwards by 1 billion euros in 23. Furthermore, the group has also decided to exclude from the distributable results the negative impacts of the adjustments in aging positions, which will occur during the first half of 23, as a consequence of the ECB decision in the fourth quarter 22. And as you are already aware, the capital gain linked to the sale of Bank of the West will be also excluded. So basically, all this should mechanically enable us to deliver a 23 adjusted result, increasing in line with the group net income target of an average growth of more than 9%. On top of that, it should result in a growth in EPS in 23% higher than the objective of a CAGR of more than 12% that will be boosted by the €5 billion share buyback executed in 2023. Last but not least, as this 2023 adjusted Distributable Income will serve as a base for the 60% return to shareholders, it should result in a growth in DPS to the same tune. Moving now to slide 7 as a wrap-up and to take away for this first part of our presentation, You can see that not only we anticipate delivering an average strong growth in net income by 2025 on the back of our embarked growth and additional potential, but that in addition, our unique positioning in 2023 allows us to deliver a steady growth year after year with an even higher growth in EPS boosted by the execution of our share buybacks each year. I would like now to hand over to Lars. We will take you through the group and divisional results. Lars.

speaker
Lars Machenil
Group Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Fine, ladies and gentlemen. I will now take you through the record 22 results, which form the base for our updated 25 objectives. An objective, as you have seen, with the distributable income growing by at least 9% every year, even in the pivotal year, 23. So let's now look at slide 9, and let's turn to 22. And actually, let's turn to 21, where you can see in 21 that the capital gains largely compensated exceptional income. costs. And for 2023, so this year, and actually over the whole GTS 2025 plan, we also anticipate each year capital gains to compensate these exceptional costs for around 400 million euros for restructuring, adaptation and IT reinforcement. However, in 2022, as a consequence of the very specific circumstances in Central Europe, this compensation was not the case and hence exceptional items were atypically negative overall. And this is then not mentioning the increase in taxes that you also see on this slide to the so-called IFRIC 21, which was entirely booked in the corporate center, which was up 300 million on the back of the final year of the single resolution fund. I remind you in 2023, so this year being the last year as the fund will be ramped up. And so, with this, we turn to slide 10, which illustrates the strong performance of the group, as detailed by Jean-Laurent, from the revenues all the way down to the bottom line, with a healthy return on tangible equity at 10.2%. If with this, I can ask you to turn to slide 11, with the revenues of the operating divisions. They grew by a solid 10.4% year-on-year, 7.8% on a like-for-like basis. If we look at our divisions, CIB revenues grew sharply by 15.7%, thanks to our diversified and integrated model, ensuring to capture the buoyant client activity, in particular in 2022, at global markets and security services, and also at global banking, with a strong rebound towards the end of the year 2022. A level of activity which is strengthened by the complete coverage of clients' needs leading to the gains in market share. If we take the second division, a strong momentum was also seen at CPBS, up 9.3%, driven by the strong performance of commercial and personal banking activity with the improvement of net interest income and fees on the back of a favorable positioning in corporates and private banking, but also in cash management and trade finance. Moreover, an increase was also seen in our specialized businesses, and Arval in particular, so the car fleet leasing business, sustained by the growth in a fleet of more than 8% in the year 22. Last and third, activity was very good at IPS, with strong Nasdaq inflows and better resilience versus peers in assets under management, illustrating our commercial outperformance versus peers over time. Hence, IPS delivered an increase in revenues at 3% on the back of a strong rise in private banking businesses, despite a lackluster market environment which weighed on asset management and also insurance revenues. If I can now ask you to flick to slide 12, we look again at the operating divisions, the same ones, but now at the costs. costs were up 8%, generating strong positive jaws of 2.4 points for those operating divisions. And this is for the full year. And if you would look at the fourth quarter, also delivering 1.9 points of jaws. So you can see that we continue not only to benefit from our industrialized and mutualized platforms, but also from additional initiatives generating this year more than 500 million euros in cost savings. CPBS delivered very positive draws of 3.3 points, thanks to the ongoing rationalization of our operating model. For CIB as well, draws were positive at 2.1 points, as basically, what else can I say, a tribute to the high operational efficiency of our leading platforms. And then, at IPS, costs were up 3.5%, supporting the business with a close to nil in JAWS effect on a like-for-like basis despite the impact of an unfavorable market environment. So we have looked at the top line, we've looked at the costs, let's now look at the cost of risk. So if you could turn to slide 13, and there you can see the confirmation of a low cost of risk at group level at 31 basis points over outstanding well in line with our guidance of a cost of risk every year below 40 basis points. And this, as a result, not of luck, but of our prudent risk profile, as it can be, or as it is, illustrated by the lowest level of cost of risk over gross operating income, so revenues minus cost, and this through the cycle compared to Eurozone peers and a continuously improved risk profile And if you look at the stages 1 and 2 in the cost of risk of around 6 billion, and they basically cover 2.4, that stock is basically covering 2.4 times the stage 3 provisions of this year. So in 22, the cost of risk is due in particular to the combination of one low impairment of non-performing loans, those so-called stage 3 provisions, and also the an ex-ante prudent provisioning, the so-called stages one and two, on performing loans. And this for 463 million euros, simulating the side effects of, side effects and simulating, I cannot stress it enough, of the invasion of Ukraine and higher inflation and rates partially offset by release of provisions that we took that were linked to the COVID crisis a year and a half ago. and this also with some releases in provisions that we have to align us to the European standards, and which in turn are less conservative than ours. So with this, if we now move on from the businesses that we have seen, you will basically see, and I skipped those next two pages, but you see the evolution of the cost of risk for our divisions, and basically it is always a variation on the theme of low cost of risks. So allow me to take you through the financial structure on slide 16. You can see, first of all, that the common equity T1 ratio in the last quarter improved by 20 basis points, and so clocking in at 12.3%. As in the past, if you look over the full year of the 22, there has been an organic increase contribution to the common equity T1 of 30 basis points. Moreover, as you've seen in the beginning of the year, there has been a reduction of 40 basis points, again, over the year through the OCIs that are basically impacted by the market environment. And also, as we told you at the beginning of the year, there was an update to models and regulations that had an impact of 30 basis points. So if we now look forward, and basically you see that the benefit related to the sale of Bank of the West, which represents, as Jean-Laurent said, in basis points, 170 basis points, which kicked in on February 1, and so that basically takes us to 14.14% common equity T1 ratio. Going forward, we should continue to grow organically our CET1 ratio by approximately, let's say, somewhere around 50 basis points over 2023 and 2024, and we anticipate as well the ratio to be impacted. Well, as one thing you know, we're going to do a buyback of €5 billion, so over and above the return in dividend in cash and share buyback over the results. There is also the return related to Bank of the West, so in total a share buyback of €5 billion. The first two and a half done before the summer period, will reduce the common equity by 20 basis points, and the second tranche that we will do around the summer will basically reduce by 40 basis points. And then there is also the implementation of IFRS 17 in insurance that will lower and one-off the common equity T1 by 10 basis points. So this is a bit the view on common equity T1. So you see we are very well capitalized. And if we also look at the leverage ratio, it clocked in at 4.4% at the end of the year, well above the requirement. And also this ratio will be further boosted by the sale of Bank of the West by 40 basis points. And as Jean-Laurent said, if you see this, there is a remaining excess of capital that will be redeployed very frugally and mainly by accelerating organic growth. So if I can top that off on slide 17, that with no surprise, you see our net tangible book value per share continue to grow, clocks in at 79.3 euros. The rest of the slide is basically crystallizing the level of our return to shareholders we have summed up in the different elements for 23. So this is then basically the group. I now want to hand it back to Jean-Laurent for the other two pillars in GTS, technology and sustainability. Thank you.

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