7/27/2023

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of BNP Paribas' second quarter 2023 results. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas' IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star and 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would now like to hand the conference over to Lars Maschnien, Group Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Lars Maschnien
Group Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone. I trust you're doing well, and welcome to BNP Paribas' second quarter results. Today, I'm thrilled to share with you these very solid results as a further illustration of the strength of BNP Paribas' unique model Indeed, the second quarter results show BNP Paribas' ability to deliver above-average growth in very different environments supported by businesses and leading platforms, and always with the same obsession, serving clients, partners, and the economy throughout the cycle, being pertinent, disciplined, long-term, and ambitious. It resulted in a significant organic growth more than offsetting the impact of the sale of Bank of the West in the second quarter, as you had already seen in the first quarter. It nurtures our long-term performance while more than supporting our 2023 trajectory and strong ability to create value for shareholders. The group confirms the robust trajectory of the distributable income for 2023 and is very well on track to deliver its ambitious targets with a significant increase in earnings per share and return to shareholders. We also confirm that we just received the authorization from the ECB for the second 2.5 billion euro tranche of our share buyback program. It will be launched in the days following the completion of the first one being beginning August. Moreover, during this call, I will detail the levers that deliver a double-digit bottom-line growth and a related EPS growth of 17%. This, as we already bought, 3.5% of our market cap in the second quarter. And so this EPS growth would even be 25% following the second share buyback tranche that I just mentioned that will start beginning of August. So with this, let's start on slide three and our key messages. Revenues increased by 3.3% year-on-year, when excluding exceptional items which are particularly elevated this quarter as a result of exogenous events. This growth is supported by the balance of our model and the performance of all our operating divisions, which are themselves diversified. Not only diversified, but also fully integrated with, as an example, almost 30% of our revenues driven by our unique ability to cross-sell in between. If we look at the divisions, CIB demonstrated perfectly the effectiveness of this model, which combined with a change of scale resulted in quasi-stable revenues compared to a high base last year on a like-for-like basis. Later on in the presentation, we will see that if we add cost and cost of risk and look at pre-tax income, CIB is up 5%. If we go back to revenues and we look at CPBS, delivering a steady 3.5% growth, while EPS grew by 0.8% on a like-for-like basis. As expected, the growth is disciplined and operating expenses are well contained and increased by only 1%, generating an intrinsic positive jaws effect of 2.3 points. Moreover, the Group continues to benefit from its long-term, prudent, proactive risk management, as demonstrated by a cost of risk that stood and remained at the low level of 31 basis points, well below our guidance of less than 40 basis points. Furthermore, our financial structure remains solid, with the Group CET1 ratio at 13.6%. The increase in bottom line is strong. Our net income grew by 16.4% versus a year ago, excluding the items and Bank of the West contribution in 2022. In addition, and as it was the case in the first quarter, if you add back the contribution of Bank of the West in the second quarter a year ago, second quarter earnings this year are still significantly higher. So, I repeat, organic growth more than offset the impact of the sale of Bank of the West. As a consequence of this strong performance and applying the adjustments we committed to, our distributable net income clocked in at 3.3 billion euros in the second quarter. As you know, this is a fair representation of our intrinsic performance and the basis for our distributions. The related earnings per share clocked in at 4.72 euros, almost 17.17% above last year. So what else can I say? These results are solid bedrocks on which we will achieve the 2023 objectives of growth in distributable income, EPS, DPS. And hence, we confirm that we anticipate a distributable net income for 2023 at least 1 billion euros above 2022 results as reported. It has at least 1 billion euros above 10.2 billion euros. If we now turn the page and look at the exceptional and extraordinary items in the boxes that you see on slide 4. As you can see, these items are particularly elevated this quarter as a result of exogenous events. Let's be clear, these elements are no litter, but aim to clarify the underlying results as the base for distributable income. As expected, you will also find a similar extraordinary impact for the first quarter, resulting from the adjustments of hedges related to the changes in the ECB terms and conditions of the TLTRO applied end of last year, a negative extraordinary item booked in corporate center, and excluded from the distributable income. If you now move to slide five, with our full P&L providing details of the key items. So again, exceptional, exceptional including extraordinary items, are particularly elevated this quarter as a result of the exogenous events mentioned, and it indeed introduced some noise in the reading of our results. So what is the right KPI to measure the intrinsic performance of the group this quarter? First, if you exclude exceptional and extraordinary items, what you can see is that the group net income in the second quarter 2023 is 16.4% higher than in the second quarter 2022, a powerful indicator of the group's intrinsic performance driven by a strong growth in revenue but also positive jaws and cost of risk at a low level. Basically, you will draw exactly the same conclusions if you only remove the extraordinary impact of the adjustment in hedges we had to do given the ECB's decision on TLTRO. And indeed, at €3.3 billion, the distributable net income, which is the basis for shareholder return, is still 10.2 percent higher than in the second quarter 2022 and maybe to conclude on this let me mention our return on tangible equity standing at 13.6 percent if we move on and please slide to slide six i take it the messages jump off this page basically since 2018 our net result has grown organically by a solid 36.7%, excluding exceptional items, illustrating our continuous growth in all environments. As I used to say, we're not a one-trick pony, which you can clearly see. So it is the result of the effectiveness of our model and our strategy on a long-term basis. It is also a tribute to the continuous development of our group Benefiting from an acceleration in growth on the back of a change of scale resulting from the different initiatives we have launched and implemented to continue to grow our unique client franchise and platform. If we move on to slide 7, we have selected key KPIs that are at the core of our disciplined growth and long-term vision. If we look at them first, and this has been a while with us and will remain one. It's a long-standing feature of BNP Paribas and the balance of our capital allocation and diversification. Basically, three-thirds. A third for CIB, a third for commercial and personal banking, and a third for our specialized businesses in CPBS as well as IPS. It results in a solid resilience but also reflects our ability to capture growth and serve clients increasing our market share, penetration rates, and cross-sell revenues with clients and partners that are the best positioned in their sectors and geographies. So that's the first. Second, you see the steady progress of our ROTE over the recent years. It is a clear sign of our profitable growth strengthened over the years. And third, to illustrate How important is risk management and risk appetite management for the group? A graph at the right that we like, evidencing that the group has one of the lowest level of cost of risk over gross operating income, so gross operating income, revenues minus cost, and this through the cycle compared to Eurozone peers. This maintained and disciplined balance between risk and growth is at the core of what we do and the way we develop our businesses. It is one of the levers of our resilience, but it is also, as demonstrated in the past years, one of the reasons sustaining the acceleration of our growth when opportunities appear. Finally, we would not have completed TOUR if we did not mention the opportunities given by the redeployment of the proceeds of the sale of Bank of the West, which puts us in a unique position to step up our long-term value creation and growth, should it be through organic or bolt-on acquisitions. If we swipe to slide 8 and we focus on the revenues of the operating divisions, a good set of results for CIB, thanks to its diversification, it is indeed a tribute to what makes our CIB special. long-term and in-depth relationship with our clients and the back of a full cover of their needs with balanced businesses and leading platforms that build those strong client franchises. As a consequence, CIB's revenues were quasi-stable, supported by the strong rise in global banking revenues, up 17% on a like-for-like basis, as well as an increase, a continued increase, in security services. As a result of a more back-to-normal activity, and particularly on micro-products, global markets were down 11% on a life-like basis versus a high base a year ago. But still, 32% increase when compared to the second quarter of 2018, as an illustration of a new dimension in that space. I will come back to market share gains later on. If we now turn to the second division, We see very positive momentum for CPBS, with a sharp 3.5% increase like-for-like basis, driven by the strong performance of commercial and private banking in the Eurozone, boosted by the rise in net interest revenue. Also, a solid increase in revenues for specialized businesses, with Arval and Leasing Solutions up 17%, witnessing healthy growth in volumes, as well as maintained high level of contribution related to used car prices. Less of a favorable environment for Europe Med and personal finance. The third division, IPS, delivered an increase in revenues of 0.8%, facing contrasted environment dynamics, combining a strong increase in insurance, 9.9%, and wealth management businesses, 6.7%, which have been offset by a more challenging environment, for real estate. If you now flick to slide 9 and look at the operating divisions and the costs, and they delivered a positive Jaws effect, the operating divisions of 0.7 points, which demonstrate that costs are well under control, benefiting from our industrialized and mutualized platforms, but also from a very disciplined approach, as illustrated by cost, almost stable in the operating divisions when compared to a year ago. In that context, CPBS delivered very positive jaws, three points, thanks to the ongoing rationalization of our operating model and continuous cost-saving measures. Operating expenses were down 1.7% in commercial and personal banking, with a very positive jaws effect of 3.5 points. They were up by 4.5% in the specialized businesses, which continued to invest in their development initiatives and, as you can see, in the evolution of their revenues. The second, if we look at CIB, operating expenses were down 1.1%, with a very positive JOLS effect for global banking, shy of 14 points, and lower costs at global markets. At IPS, an increase in operating expenses by 2%, supporting the targeted investments and business growth that that division is pursuing. And particularly, if you look at the positive JOLS, you can see them clearly in insurance and wealth management. If we now go to slide 10. As you know, optimization of our setup and cost discipline are at the heart of our growth plan. This is what you can see on this slide 10. In particular, leveraging our internal platforms is a key priority to better allocate resources and further mutualize technological offers. The objective is a 25% increase in resources in the main shared service centers between 21 and 25. 25% increase. If I put this in numbers, it basically means an increase of 5,000 FTEs. 70% of this objective is already reached, which shows the pace of our adaptation to the environment. In addition, we adapt our premises and office space to integrate new work usage, lowering our mutualization ratio down to 0.75%, through flex offices and fewer inner city locations. We have also reduced the number of branches by more than 6% since 2021. Last, we are ensuring a strong discipline on investments with a proactive management of, in particular, external spending. All these levers have brought more operational efficiencies. And as a result, our recurring savings have been revised earlier by an extra €300 million, so leading up to €2.3 billion of reductions over the plan. And this will support our ability to deliver positive jobs each year in combination with the end of the ramp-up of the Single Resolution Fund, representing a decrease of €0.8 billion in operating expenses between 2023 and 2024. If we now look at the risk profile, And we turn to page 11, where you can see that thanks to our prudent risk management, our cost of risk has been low over a long period. Below our plan, guidance of 40 basis points in 2017, except for the year 2020, when we had an exceptional level of ex-ante provisioning, so the stages one and two. Another powerful illustration is our capacity to significantly grow our global markets activities, with the level of VAR almost unchanged in absolute amounts. It is a way to confirm that our CIB has grown in a disciplined way, still maintaining a very prudent and proactive approach in terms of risk management. It demonstrates as well how a disciplined change of scale can indeed improve our risk profile. Finally, we like to stress out pretty high stock of stages one and two provisions covering two times our cost of risk on non-performing loans as another evidence of our prudent risk attitude. If we now focus on the second quarter, you can see the confirmation of a low cost of risk at 31 basis points at group level because of, one, low impairments on defaulted assets, the so-called Stage 3 provisions, and two, a limited release in the ex-ante provisioning. If you now move to each of the businesses on slides 12 and 13, you will see a similar pattern of low levels of cost of risk across the board. So if you allow, we skip those two. You can peruse them at your own time. And let's turn to slide 14 on the financial structure. You can see our stable CET1 ratio clocking in at 13.6%. So if you look at the dynamics, organic capital generation through reported net income, after setting aside 60% of our distributable results, net of the evolution in our risk-weighted assets had a 10 basis points positive impact this quarter. This 10 basis points was offset by the effect of new partnerships for personal finance that stepped up the volumes for the amount of 10 basis points. All other effects had limited impact on the common equity tier 1. As there is a whole flotilla of metrics, there is also the leverage ratio. It clocked in at 4.5%, well above the requirement. Our liquidity profile at the end of this quarter stands pretty high. with an LCR at 143% end of period, increasing by four points compared to end of the first quarter. Expressed in another way, the level of our liquidity buffer, the HQLA, amounted to €404 billion, out of which 70% in deposits at central banks. Or even another way, our liquidity reserve is a whopping €473 billion and includes €286 billion of central bank deposits. So all is fine. Let's move on. Slides 15. And you can see how strong and deeply ingrained our value creation model is. If you look first, a continued growth of our net tangible book value per share in all environments year after year, reaching 83.8 euros as of the end of June. As I said, up every year and up 29% versus 2018. This growth is even amplified when translating it into earnings per share, with an outstanding EPS growth of 56% since the first half of 2018. It has almost doubled the tangible equity per share growth. And then there is a third one, which even further amplifies, is the increased ordinary payout ratio, now at 60%, and significant share buyback program executed for the equivalent of 7% of our market cap in 2023. Hence, if you take all that, a tremendous increase of the amount to be distributed to shareholders, up 63% over the period to reach 3.5 billion euros for the first semester of 2023. As a finisher, allow me to conclude that we are happy to confirm that we just received the authorization for the second $2.5 billion tranche of our 23 share buyback. And as I said at the beginning, we will launch it as soon as the first one is finished, which should be in the next few days. So this is the G part of GTS. So we have the GTS Plan 25. We talked about G growth. And let's now go to slide 16 on the T, the technology. And indeed, investing in technology to support operational performance, but also innovation and growth is a top priority. Our disciplined investment strategy is built on three major pillars, and these are not just buzzwords. Let's look at them. Number one, we intensively deploy artificial intelligence, leveraging our own resources and advanced platforms while intensifying partnering with deep tech companies. So more than 700 use cases have been rolled out with the intention to create significant value by 2025 of more than 500 million euros per year. We have also identified 100 use cases for generative artificial intelligence experiments with large language models used, for example, by Chad Gibity-Hobart. They will increase the scope of usage of AI, but always on the basis of strong standards in terms of security. So that's the first. Second, an open information system. Our successful IT marketplace, offering close to 300 IT products to share internally, combined with the APIization, which is also broadly adopted. It brings interoperability and rationalization with more than 800 APIs available, sustaining more than 620 million transactions every month. Third, a safer and more resilient IT. Here comes the cloud with the objective to embark more than 60% 6-0 of our apps by 2025. We are currently at 42%. And last but not least, These developments make us a leader in the industry, attracting high-end AI and IT profiles. Another evidence is our number of partnerships with startups. If we continue, and contributing to a responsible and sustainable economy is another major foundation of our plan, so basically the S in GTS, and this is what you can see on slide 17 and 18. As the largest Eurozone Bank, we believe in our responsibility to redirect financing towards low-carbon projects with the aim of contributing to a net-zero economy by 2050. For more than a decade, we have been deploying very significant resources and efforts for the energy transition, as you can see on slide 16. These actions, these decisions over the last 12 years with an acceleration in 2022 and 2023, are evidencing our clear ambition to support the advent of a carbon neutral economy by 2050. Indeed, we have set ourselves ambitious targets to support our clients in the transition and accelerate our pivotal move towards financing low-carbon energy production. By 2030, we will have completed the transitioning of our financing activities to the production of low-carbon energies by more than 80%, and this in less than 15 years. Our leadership remains with our number one worldwide ranking in sustainable bonds and green bonds, as well as the 2023 Euromoney Award of world's best bank for sustainable finance, obtained for the third consecutive year. I'll let you peruse slide 18, where you can review in detail on the six most emitting industrial sectors, the stringent commitments we have set ourselves to align our portfolios to the 2050 net zero targets on the basis of the International Energy Agency scenarios. I would now like to take you through the divisional results. Let's start the review of the group's operating division with CIB, starting on slide 21. What do we see? The second quarter is a tribute of the successful strategy deployed at CIB with a strong focus on leading and reinforced platforms strategically aligned to serve corporates and institutional in all environments. And CIB saw another quarter of good results on the back of balanced and robust performances in all businesses in a more quote unquote back to normal environment. CIB has changed scale and continues to grow. Ranking in the top three in EMEA with confirmed leadership positions, CIB has expanded its global market shares by 26% since 2018, with market shares expanding in global banking by 19% and global markets by 28%. Leveraging its diversified and integrated model, CIB confirms its resilient growth year after year as evidenced by the evolution of the quarterly pre-tax income and its change of scale. All you have to do is to have a look at the second quarter 2023 that is more back to normal, but with continuous market share gains when compared to the second quarter 2018 or 2019. Please note, in addition, that it reached a record level in the second quarter. Indeed, benefiting from its diversification, CIB's revenues decreased slightly on a like-for-like basis, minus 0.7%, compared to a year ago. And this is reported by very strong growth at global banking, good resilience at global markets, compared to a very high second quarter a year ago, and a continued good performance by security services. If we look a bit deeper into them, global banking, continues to gain market share, as mentioned, plus 19% compared to 2018, with an acceleration in the first half, 23%, as illustrated on slide 22. Hence, revenues in global banking were up 17.5%, and growth is seen across all business lines and regions, and sharp gains in transaction banking, up 75% in EMEA, and strong growth within capital markets, particularly in the Americas and EMEA. Secondly, global markets continue to gain market shares worldwide, as mentioned, plus 28% compared to 2018, supporting the revenue trend you can see on slide 23. As you have seen it, client activity has more normalized levels on the whole in the markets in the second quarter, and particularly on macro and in equities, while overall activity on credit markets went up sharply. In this environment, Global markets showed a strong resilience compared to a high first quarter 2022, with revenues decreasing by 11% on a lifelike basis. Facing robust credit markets, notably in EMEA, and normalized client activity on rates and foreign exchange, fake revenues were down 18% year-on-year versus a very strong second quarter, particularly in macro, a year ago. Facing lower client activity versus a high base last year, equity and prime services still displays a very good relative performance with revenues decreasing by only 3%. Finally, supported by the diversification of its business model, the third part of CIB, security services, continues to benefit from a good business momentum with new mandates in private capital. With the positive impact of interest rates and increased assets due to market rebound, revenues increased by 1.6%, a solid performance. If I synthesize back to CIB overall, total costs were down 1% year on year, with very positive jaws shy of 14 points for global banking, while cost degrees in global markets again to context of normalization of the activity. All in all, accounting for a very low level of cost of risk, CIB generated a pre-tax income of 1.8 billion euros, a record, and as I mentioned earlier, up 4.7% year on year. In a nutshell, a very efficient CIB model embarked on a strong growth plan with strict discipline, continued market share gains, and favorable positioning, offsetting this quarter the impact of more normalized markets on fake activities. And another record this quarter. If you can now turn your attention to commercial personal banking and services, from slide 25 to 32. What can you see? Well, CPBS performed well with a solid set of results and very positive jaws thanks to the strong performance of commercial and personal banking in the Eurozone and the sustained growth at Arval. In terms of activity, loans were up 3.6% across commercial and personal banking in the Eurozone and specialized businesses. Deposits were almost stable in the eurozone for commercial and personal banking. If we look at private banking, net asset ventures were strong at 5.1 billion euros, confirming our distinctive franchises and favourable client positioning. Moreover, the division continues to focus on its commercial footprint and robust sales, with notably an exclusive partnership with Orange Bank and further customer acquisition at Halo Bank. On payments, a strategic initiative for CPBS, transaction volumes are on a clear growth path with new mandates in 2023 in the acquiring business. If you now look at the P&L, revenues clocked in at 6.8 billion euros, up 3.3%, thanks to margins that held up well, more than well. A very good performance at Erval, also combined with a good resilience at Leasing Solutions. All in all, we saw a good momentum on net interest revenue, notably for commercial and personal banking in the Eurozone. In France, our favourable market positioning, combined with strong franchises, supported a good set of results. Net interest revenue is up 1.3%, with margins that held up well on the back of our positioning, and strong sales and marketing drive, but also contribution of inflation hedges partially offsetting by the increased refinancing cost. If you now go to Belgium, where it increased by 4.2%, thanks to our strong market share, and in Luxembourg by 35%. At BNL also, despite the tough competition on prices, margins held up well on deposits and net interest revenue increased by 6.2%. So this is the net interest revenues. If you look at fees, we continue to get the full benefit of our leading positions on flow businesses and favorable client mix and benefit from the balance between banking fees and financial fees. If we now look at the specialized businesses, revenues were up 5.8% year-on-year. When excluding personal finance, the growth is shy of 17%. Now, based on a pattern you know well, by combining volume growth expansion of finance fleet with higher new car prices, as well as the benefit of high used car prices and new partnerships, Arval and Leasing Solutions saw a sharp increase in revenues of 17%. Looking at Arval, continues and will continue to deliver a very strong growth in the fleet, supporting the development of revenues all the more than new car prices are getting higher. It is anticipated to offset the very gradual effect for Arval of a more normalized but still at a very high level of used car market. In addition, revenue will be further supported by the development of financial margin with increased new car prices. If we turn to personal finance, the transformation is progressing. Furthermore, business-wise, we see an inflection point with higher volumes and higher margins versus Q1 2023, despite continued pressure. Outstanding loans were up 12.4%, increasing notably in the mobility segment, supported by the new partnerships in auto loans that will also drive the structural improvement in the risk profile of PF. Lastly, new digital businesses and personal investors confirmed their role as new client acquisition engines, accompanied by a strong growth in revenues. up 16%. So these were the revenues at CPBS. If you now look at the costs, they were almost stable at 0.3%, reflecting the impact of cost-saving measures as well as the ongoing rationalization of the operational setup that offset the effects of inflation. Hence, very positive Jaws effect of 3 points, sustained by commercial and personal banking at 3.5 points. Similarly, the specialized businesses confirmed their capacity to grow at marginal cost with a significant positive draw effect at 12 points for Arval and Leasing Solutions. Positive draws also for the new digital businesses at 1.1 points. So if we scroll down the P&L of CPBS and we look at the pre-tax income, stable at 2.3 billion euros, up 0.7%. So to sum up, a very solid quarter for CPBS with a robust business drive and the support of the ongoing adjustment in interest rate with net interest revenues holding well. Let's now move to slide 33 to 36. So despite contrasted environments, business momentum for this third division, investment and protection services, was good overall, sustained by net inflows for wealth and asset management, at 6.8 billion euros during the second quarter, especially in Europe and internationally with high net worth clients. If we now look at the P&L, EPS revenues stood at 1.4 billion euros, up 0.3% year-on-year, with strong increase in insurance and wealth management. Indeed, a solid performance in insurance with revenues up 8.7%. Good business drive in France, supporting inflows notably in unit-linked combined with a nice momentum for protection, notably in Latin America. Wealth management also performed well, up 6.6%, boosted by the strong growth in net interest revenues with solid margins and deposit growth. An increase in revenues also for asset management, on the back of net asset inflows and a market performance effect. This increase in asset management has been offset by less favorable base effects an environment for real estate and principal investments who form together one unit. So IPS operating expenses were up 2% year-on-year, driven by business developments and targeted investments. All in all, IPS pre-tax income just came down by 1.5% due to a less favorable environment impacting real estate combined with the base aspect. Let me now conclude our presentations. BNP Paribas 2023 second quarter results confirm a solid intrinsic performance for the group driven by the strength of its diversified model. Let me walk down some elements. First, a distributable income on a fast track at 3.3 billion euros with an EPS growth of 16.8%. Two, a strong trajectory confirmed for 2023 supported by a second tranche of share buyback of 2.5 billion euros to commence in the coming days. Three, a clear and promising ambition to support a carbon neutral economy with a clear and recognized leadership. Four, finally, a tribute to BNP Paribas teams who are strongly mobilized and committed to support more than ever our client needs. So with that, we demonstrated once again that BNP Paribas is uniquely positioned to deliver strong performances, serving clients and the economy in all weather. I thank you very much for your kind attention and am now more than pleased to take your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your touchtone telephone. Please lift the handset, ensure the mute function on your telephone is switched off, and that you are in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. We will take as many questions as time permits. Again, please press star and 1 to ask a question. The first question is from Tariq El-Majad of Bank of America.

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