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Bnp Paribas Spons Adr
2/1/2024
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas 2023 full-year results with Jean-Laurent Bonafi, Chief Executive Officer, Lars Maschenil, Chief Financial Officer, and Jan Girardin, Chief Operating Officer, Corporate and Institutional Banking. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website at invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonafi, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. So good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm pleased to welcome you alongside Lars and Jan for the presentation of our 2023 results. We'll be pleased to take your questions at the end of the presentation. So we are halfway through our GTS25 plan. We'd like to share with you through five key messages, but I take away from our 23 results, our 25 outlook, our model, our long-term strategy, and finally, our long-term value creation policy. My first message, looking here at slide four, this with our intrinsic performance in 23, which I would call very good. BNP Paiva delivered an 18% increase in distributable earnings per share in 23 compared to 22. Distributable net income, which stands at 11.2 billion euros, was up 10.2% compared to 2022 and was in line with our announced objectives for 2023, despite a fourth quarter that was more challenging than usual. Last, we'll give you all the necessary details for each division and we'll comment on the one-off items booked in particular in Q4 2023, which we absorbed over the full year and through Distributable Net Income in order to reflect the group intrinsic performance. What you should also keep in mind is that they will not wait either on future results. Overall, on a distributable basis, our revenues rose by 3.3% in 2023 compared to 2022 and our operating expenses decreased by 1%. The Joe's effect is therefore positive. The cost of risk was low and came in at 32 basis points, driven by the structural improvement in our risk profile over the past 10 years. Many of you have asked us about the redeployment of capital freed up by the sale of Bank of the West. The process is well underway, based on the discipline approach. As of the end of 2023, we have redeployed 3 billion, or 40 BIPs, one third in organic growth, and two-thirds through targeted partnerships and Bolton acquisitions. 70 BIPs remains to be redeployed. Our financial structure is solid, and our CT1 ratio trajectory is on track to absorb the new CRR3 requirements by 2025. I will come back to this point in a moment. Disreputable earnings per share came to €9.21, an 18% increase versus 22 reported. We confirm our 60% shoulder return policy and will propose a Euro 4.6 dividend per share at the Annual General Meeting on May 14th. We have also requested the ECB's approval to launch a Euro 1.05 billion share buyback programme. One last thing. In 2023, we continue to invest in technology and in artificial intelligence based on the same type of industrial approach that made our platform so successful. I will come back to this point in a moment. Beyond the very good results we achieved despite the headwinds, 23 was a pivotal year. And with that in mind, I would like to send out a message of confidence in our medium term outlook. Looking now at slide five, my second message today is about our 25 outlook. The economic outlook in Europe and geopolitical uncertainties have obviously made us cautious. However, despite these headwinds, BNP Paribas should continue to grow faster than its underlying economy, serve clients, and get market shares across all phases of the business cycle. These all phases of the business cycle is important. Personal finance and real estate have been particularly affected from the current cycle, but we are dealing with that we have set up some robust adaptation plans which should pay off as early as 26. In 23, we also took note of several decisions by public authorities. The end of ECB remuneration of minimum reserves, the new Belgium tax, and the issue of Belgium government bonds. For the sake of transparency, we cannot avoid mentioning the temporary pacts they have. In the end, taken together, these measures could bring our projected ROTE by 25 in the range of 11.5% and 12% and translate into a CAGR 2225 in net income group share of circa 8%. Thanks to our diversified and integrated model and the adaptations underway, we are confident in our ability to deliver a return on tangible equity of 12% by 26. Lars will detail further the growth targets by operating division in his presentation. Looking now at slide 6, this is a good way to transition to my third message, which is a reminder of what makes our client-centric, integrated, diversified and model at scale so valuable. The new figures in slide 6 illustrate quite simply the resilience of our model, which can generate long-term growth, our discipline in allocating capital between our businesses, one third to CAB, one third to commercial and personal banking, one third to for specialized businesses and IPS, the continuous evolution of our risk profile, and the steady improvement in our cost-income ratio. Some might argue that a solid track record and rock-solid reputation are not enough to make BNP Paribas an investment case. Nothing is ever taken for granted. This is why we feel it's important to reiterate on slide 7 our vision of the main challenges for the banking sector in Europe and how our long-term strategy is extremely well positioned to create above average value. And this is my fourth message. We have a clear view of these challenges. First, gain market shares at marginal cost. Second, optimize the capital cost constraint. Three, adapt to business cycles. Four, support the energy transition. And five, invest in people and technology. BNP Paribas' long-term strategy is nothing new and has demonstrated its efficiency as just evidenced in the previous slide. We recall it in slide 7, around 20 key points that are methodically addressed by each operational division. You will not be surprised to recognize most of the GTS25 strategic priorities that we shared with you. I will stop here for one final point before I turn it over to Lars. This is my final message, our commitment to creating shareholder value over the long term. A good illustration of this commitment can be found in the three graphs on slide 8 that recall the average annual growth rate since 2008 of tangible net book value per share, plus 7%, of net earnings per share, plus 8%, and of the cash dividend per share plus 11%. We are mobilized and focused on continuing this trajectory. I would like now to hand over to Lars, who will take you through the group and divisional results.
Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Good afternoon also from my side, fine ladies and gentlemen. Let's start with slide 10 in the section of 2023 results. So as mentioned by Jean-Laurent, our 2023 distributable net income at 11.2 billion euros is in line with our objective. This year, the number and amount of one-off or what we call in our lingo extraordinary items are high. I would therefore like to give you some color to this conjunction of external and internal factors and give you all the necessary transparency. In a nutshell, we have been in a position to absorb these negative extraordinary items occurring particularly in the fourth quarter of 2023, had no immediate cost to shareholders with respect to the 2023 distribution. They will not weigh either on future results neither because we put them behind us. If you look at the slide 10, the waterfall gives a good picture of the restatements between the net group share result reported and the distributable result in 2023. So if we look at it beyond the 2.95 capital gain from Bank of the West, There are two main types of items that were adjusted from the distributable result in 2023 to reflect BNP Paribas' intrinsic performance. That is why we introduced the distributable one. It is coherent with the result of 2022, and it is the base for the one of 2024. So if we look at them, the first of these corrections is linked to the European banking regulatory environment, the Single Resolution Fund. We have decided to anticipate the impact of the end of the ramp up of the single resolution fund for one billion. I remind you that we have been paying for the last eight years something around the neighborhood of one billion in order to construct that fund. That fund is now there in 23, so there will no longer be contribution in 24, and so we basically took them already out in 23 to make it coherent. Secondly, there is the TLTRO. Well, there is the TLTRO, or in particular, the change of terms that the ECB applied and therefore the adjustment that was required on the hedges that were facing it. And so that is just shy of a billion of impact. So beyond these roughly 2 billion restatements, there are also some more idiosyncratic ones. Like for example, the extraordinary adaptation costs of 280 million, partly related to personal finance, Jean-Laurent told you that we're taking care of it, as well as provisions related to legacy portfolios amounted to 780 million euros. These are legacies. They are way gone, and we basically put them behind us as well. So these provisions, for example, include the extraordinary ones for mortgages in Poland and provisions for litigations to personal finance and provisions for receivables. So we also put those ones behind us. So that's the part. on the distributable income. I should propose to skip slide 11 because it's basically the P&L as Jean-Laurent has given it in color and I draw your attention, it was already mentioned, but an ROT of 11% and an EPS growth of 18% on the back of the earnings growth and the share buyback. I also propose to skip slide 12. It just reminds you that there are the extraordinary, so the one-off elements I just discussed, There are also the exceptional elements, which are basically stable compared to what we had the year before. And I just remind you also that there is the impact of hyperinflation weighing for $200 million additionally on the year 2023. So that's basically what I wanted to share with you before switching into slide 13. And the slide 13 talks about the revenue evolution in the businesses. So overall, you see the pickup, you see the pickup which is basically a tribute to a diversified setup. And that diversified setup at the level of BNP Paribas, but also in each of its divisions. So look at CIB, CIB revenues growth, strong increase at global banking, a rise at security services, and an activity more normalized at global markets. We'll come back to that. But there also you see the elements. If you look at CPBS, sustained revenue growth, strong increase at commercial and personal banking, driven by growth in net interest revenues. We'll also come back to those. And a strong increase at ARVAL and leasing solutions. and a less favorable environment in personal finance. Nevertheless, you see overall doing well. And then IPS, good performance, up 3.7% when we look at insurance, wealth management, and asset management, as indeed there is real estate which is being restructured and weighing a bit on IPS. So that's the view of the revenues as we see them. And before we move on and go to the results on a yearly basis, I want to make a comment on the fourth quarter. And you will find the fourth quarter and the details in the appendices. But I would like to make four very important points. First, the distributable net income clocked in at €2.7 billion in the fourth quarter and led to a distributable net income of €11.2 billion in 2023. as guided on the back of a nine-month restated distributable income of $9.2 billion and a fourth quarter of $2 billion. So that's the first thing. The second thing, if extraordinary one-off items weigh on the reported P&L, they are excluded from the distributable net income that reflects the intrinsic performance of the group and the base for the return to shareholders. So that's two. And then the third, when talking about those extraordinary one of items that were very negative in the fourth quarter, around 933 million negative, due mainly to extraordinary provisions for litigations, around 645. And they are recognized in the fourth quarter and as such will not weigh on the fruited results. So we took them out and we took them out of the distributable amounts. So that's the third. The fourth, don't forget that as usual, the fourth quarter results include some seasonality. And moreover, this year, the impact on cost of risk of some provisions on non-performing loans to be sold. I remind you that we have those elements provisions. They were deducted from capital. But with the intention to sell, we have to recycle that element in the P&L. So there's no impact on the common equity T1. These things are gone. It's just a blip in the cost of risk, and it will not impact our future look out. I also remind you that we had a similar thing but on the opposite side in the fourth quarter 22 where we had an idiosyncratic release due to alignment with European standards so we had to write back around 200 million. So no impact whatsoever on our 2024 outlook of this cost of risk and so we really stick to our benign 40 basis points guidance. So having done the 1, 2, 3, 4 on the fourth quarter in a nutshell These negative items and seasonality, which are in some ways very specific to the fourth quarter, should not divert you from having a look at a very solid intrinsic performance on a yearly basis. If with this, I can ask you to turn to the next page, 14, on costs. I'll be brief. You see basically that the operating divisions have cost contained, so up 2.3%. I don't have to remind you that in the Eurozone, inflation is 5.6% and something similar in the US. So you clearly see that the operating expenses are contained despite the inflationary context. If we continue on slide 15, it's also a reminder. It's basically a reminder of the structural improvement of the risk profile over the last couple of years. You know these slides, so I'll be brief. So on the left, you see 10 years of cost of risk expressed as basis points over outstanding, and you see them going down. And they don't come down just by luck. They come down because the two main elements like personal finance and BNL have been structurally been adapted. I'll come back to that. And so we stick to our guidance of below 40 basis points. And you see the same thing on the right, where you see the evolution upwards of global markets revenues, and you see stability of the VAR, which is basically the metric of the measure for market risk. So that's where we stand. I'm going to skip the next one because it's basically a variation on the team cost of risk is low. And so I'll take you to page 17 on the solid financial structure. Solid is probably also a sweet of an adjective as we have a common equity one at 13.2%. You know that we want to fly at 12%, so we are well above that. So we are well prepared for accompanying growth, redeploying the capital gains of Bank of the West, and basically be ready for the new regulation to come. So you see this, so we are very well capitalized, and it's not only on capital, it's also on liquidity. You know that our LCR ratio, which has to be above 100, is like 148. Maybe that number doesn't mean much. Always translate it in the immediately available liquidity reserves. which are like almost half a billion euros. And as you know, we don't have volts anymore, so that half a billion, we basically put it for a big part at the ECB, and that is one of the reasons why the impact on the mandatory euros have an impact. So that's basically on the capital position and the regulatory ones. So if we then take the next page, which is the redeployment of the capital of Bank of the World. So we heard you that we needed to synthesize what we're doing, and we're basically doing well. So we had like around 7 billion to redeploy. 3 billion of them are basically redeployed. And we initially had the intention to do two-thirds organic and one-third inorganic. It's basically the other way around, given the economic environment in which we are. And what are the levers that we use this for? For example, we use it to get access to new distribution networks. For example, what we've done in Belgium with the Belgian Post. Or secondly, it gives an expansion of offerings or even new expertise, what we've done, for example, with JAB. or it can deliver new technological platforms, like what we've done with Cantos. So we're really well on track, and we will continue to do so. I propose to skip the next two slides, 19 and 20, so you know that we are very dedicated to it, and you see that we are well on track of delivering. So we basically, of the plan GTS, we've talked about growth, we've talked about sustainability, and on the next pages, 21 to 23, you have a synthesis of the T, the technological and the operational efficiencies. So I talked to you about what we're doing on the cost so you know. So we keep on optimizing our premises. That's on one hand. On the second hand, we keep on industrializing and pooling activities like our shared service center. We really step them up by 25% of people by 2025. And then we're also working on the infrastructure and the technologies. AI is several of them. So that's basically where we stand on the results. So let me now quickly go into the divisions. So if we start on page 27 with CIB. So CIB overall, revenues reached a record level of $16.5 billion in 2023, up 2% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis. This serving clients, leveraging strong franchises, and confirming a change of scale in the European landscape with strong market share gains. Total CIB costs were up 1.2% year-on-year or 2.9% on a like-for-like basis. It's positive jobs for global banking and security services. All in all, and considering a lower cost of risk, CIB generates the pre-tax income of 5.7 billion euros in 2023 and a record level by historical standards up 6.4%. Now moving into some further details about the business drivers of the various divisions. So if we start with global banking, Very good performance, supported by market share gains and our European leadership on bond markets and syndicated loans. Bond markets have been particularly active and transaction banking activity has been buoyant with accelerated growth in deposits late in the year. In this context, global banking revenues were up 14% in 2023, so that's doing fine. If we move to global markets, global markets activities were still resilient compared to a high base in 2022, decreasing by 6% compared to last year on a like-for-like basis. If we dive in, equity and prime services delivered a good performance with revenues increasing by 1% and supported by good business momentum in equity derivatives and prime brokerage. In particular, the rise is very strong if you look at the fourth quarter, up 69%, with a very high level of activities across prime brokerage and equity derivatives. In a nutshell, demonstrating again how powerful it is, the diversification, not only at group level, but also at businesses. With normalized activities on rate and foreign exchange, FIC revenues were down 10% year on year. And please note the very good performance in credit activities, offset by more normalized activities in EMEA from a very high 22 base in rates and foreign exchange markets, and in particularly commodities. You remember the high volumes at the end of 22. Finally, security services, the performance confirms the relevance of a diversified model with the benefits of new mandates. So that's CIB. If we now turn to slide 31 with respect to CPBS, it delivered solid results, consolidating on the good performance of 22. Overall, revenues clocked in at $26.6 billion with a 4% increase, good performance commercial and personal banking, a solid increase in revenues in the specialized businesses. Less favorable, I told you so, in personal finance. Loans were up 2.9% and essentially lifted by the specialized businesses with a slight increase in the Eurozone for the commercial banking. If you look at deposits, they were down 1.6% but were almost stable versus the third quarter. As you know, we are very well when it comes to liquidity and the main impact is the fact of the competition by the Belgian state bond. So please note, private banking net asset inflows were solid, reaching $12.5 billion, representing 5% of underlying assets under management, confirming our distinctive franchises and favorable client positions. It's a good example of how efficient our model is, attracting strong inflows through external client acquisitions and synergies with entrepreneurs, which supports the shift into savings products, meaning more free business. CPBS operating expenses up 3.5%, generating positive jobs. With the evolution of cost of risk, pre-tax income was down 2.6% compared to a year ago, clocking in at 7 billion. Now, if we look a little bit in the departments of CPBS, and if we start on the Eurozone. So in the Eurozone, in total, the commercial and personal banking revenues are up 4.6%, net revenues up 8%. So what do we see? In France, our good relative performance is supported by our strong franchises. Net interest income decreased by 0.7%, but increased by 2.2%, excluding the impact of the inflation hedges. I talked about it, and I'll come back to that in a minute. Our exposure to regulated savings remained low compared to the market. Our loan outstanding was up by 1%, and we continued to adjust our margins. Fees remained healthy, up 17% when you compare it to pre-crisis 2020. As announced, the net interest revenues were impacted by the inflation hedges, which accounted for minus 21 million in the fourth quarter. If we go to Italy, the positive impact of interest rates on deposit margins for BNL was quite substantial, with an acceleration in the fourth quarter. Results were up sharply in Belgium, with net revenues up 9% and a positive Joules effect. Still, a good momentum on credits and deposits were quasi-stable when excluding the impact of the issuance of the Belgian state bond. Also in Luxembourg, growth increased. interest revenues of 31%. If you now move to Europe Mediterranean, loans outstanding were up by 2% and targeted origination was prudent in Turkey and Poland, particularly with individual customers. Deposits increased by 8% with an increase in all countries. Revenues at 2.7 billion were up very sharply by 19% due in particular to the good increase in net interest revenues in Poland. Please note the hyperinflation situation in Turkey led to a decrease in non-order operating incomes of 200 million, as I mentioned at the start. Moving to our specialized businesses in CPBS, revenues were up 3.8%, when excluding personal finance, growth was 14%. On the back of continued expansion of the finance fleet, plus 7% year-on-year, as well as favorable volume impact in relation to shorter delivery times on new cars, our valent living solutions saw a healthy increase in revenues Up 12%. Personal finance, the shift to mobility is materializing and the transformation is progressing well. So that is the key elements of CPBS. If you now move to slide 35 on IPS, business momentum was contrasted due to the high base for principal investment and a significant slowdown for real estate. The activity was sustained thanks to good net asset inflow over 12 months for wealth management, 17 billion, and asset management, 13 billion. So focusing on P&L, IPS, revenues stood at 5.6 billion, excluding the contribution of real estate, which is affected by a market that slowed considerably, and principal investment because of a negative base, so a very high level before. So indeed, if we look through the key elements, very strong performance for wealth management, revenues up 6%, also insurance, revenues up 4%. So back to IPS, if we bring it all together, operating expenses were up 1.7% with positive jaws when you exclude real estate and principal investments. So that's IPS. So that's basically the synthesis. that you see about the results. So we've looked back to 23. If I now look rapidly forward to 25. So looking forward to 2025, so I can share that my optimism of what I see in 23 is going to be carried forward into what we have planned to do. And so even if we look at slide where you see an update of all the interest rates, GDP and inflation, which are a tad different than when we made the plan. Intrinsically, a lot of it, if you look at the rates, they changed a lot in December. But nevertheless, in the environment and the diversification that we have, we feel ready that we can continue our growth. Then talking about growth, if we go to the next page on page 40, there is an additional 1 billion in net interest income to come. So I remind you that we are for a large part in a fixed rate mortgages environment. And so that basically means that the repricing takes time. Overall, the repricing is there, but it takes time. You can see it on the chart. A loan that was originated 10 years ago and you see basically the forward curve on it, it basically gets repriced today and you see the rates are higher and that should basically translate. And so that basically there is a year to come. There is a year of a billion to come. There is already a billion in the bank. So we confirm the overall picture. So that's on that. We see that. Moreover, if we go to the next page and we look at the growth ambitions that we set forth for our divisions, and that's also where you again see the advantage of a diversified and complementary business. So overall, we have some that in this environment, changing environment, steps up its outlook, that's CIB. So CIB, which has been demonstrating the success of its long-term strategy, will review upwards the top line growth. Then, if you go to CPBS, and particularly with the impact of the environment that I talked about, both being the Frankfurt and Brussels, if I can say, and is leading to a review that you see. And then thirdly, there is IPS, which indeed has the impact of real estate, but also is faced by the new framework of IFRS 17, and so that's what we see. So all in all, you basically see it. There are, in the evolution, given the environment changing, also the adaptation and the reaction of these divisions is different and compensates. So that's basically what we have at the outlook. I think we can skip 42, which is basically saying, you know, that we look at growth at marginal cost and therefore have that objective over the plan of jaws of two points, of which half is basically done by the falling off of the single resolution fund. And then if I go to the next page, you also know that our cost of risk is well targeted. I already discussed it earlier. We guide to remain below 40 basis points. You do know what our setup is. You do know that we have restructured personal finance and BNL, which basically represents 60% of the cost of risk. And then in the stage one and two, we have $5 billion in the bank of additional reserves. That's that sense. And then when we look at the slide on capital, and so on capital we're basically ready. So I told you that we are at 13.2% of capital. And what you see is that we are already at the end of 25 to 12%. So what are the levers? Well, we're going to continue to be profitable, as you know, and more profitable every time, and so forth, generate 50 basis points organically. Then there are some other elements, meaning we're going to continue to securitize, we're going to underwrite insurance, we're going to have... The consolidation prudentially of Arval, so that basically will be neutral. We're going to continue to redeploy the remainder of Bank of the West. And then, of course, we have an inflation of the risk-weighted assets by 7% with the advent of finalization of Basel. And if you look at that, we will be at 12%. This is where we want to be. So we are ready to accompany this growth. With this, Jean-Laurent, over to you.
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