4/25/2024

speaker
Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas First Quarter 2024 results with Jean-Laurent Bonafé, Chief Executive Officer, and Lars Maschenil, Chief Financial Officer. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star and one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonafé, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Lars Maschenil

Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm pleased to welcome you alongside Lars for the presentation of our first quarter 2024 results. We'll be pleased to take your question at the end of the presentation. The group delivered solid performances in the first quarter 24, thanks to strong business momentum within the operating divisions. BNP Paribas continues to demonstrate its ability to generate value and confirmed its 24 guidance with expected revenue growth of more than 2% compared to 23, a net income higher than 23 distributable income of 11.2 billion euros. Moving on to the core of the presentation with slide 3, our net income group share clocked in at 3.1 billion euros in the first quarter 24, a very strong quarter for BNP Paribas. Those results are obviously driven by strong performances from our operational divisions, which will be further detailed by Lars. Our revenues were stable at minus 0.4% compared to the first quarter 23 on a distributable basis. All in all, our diversified model has absorbed the negative impact of a strong base effect in the first quarter 23 at FIC within global markets. This base effect will disappear in future quarters as normalization is coming to an end, inducing a back-to-normal trend of global markets revenues. Naturalizing for this seed-based effect, our revenues would have been up 3% versus last year on a distributable basis. Furthermore, thanks to our strong discipline on costs, Our operating expenses decreased by 1.4% year-on-year on distributable basis. The Jaws effect is therefore positive by 1.1 points. We have also announced additional recurrent annual savings of 400 million, whose benefits are expected to begin showing up in second quarter 24. Cost of risk remains at a low level, 29 BIPs. reflecting the strong quality of our credit portfolio throughout the cycle. As a result, our pre-tax income reached €4.4 billion, or 7.4% year-on-year growth, which is quite a strong performance. Having just finalized our share buyback, we are also pleased to report earnings per share of €2.51, higher than last year. Our financial structure is solid with a CT1 at 13.1%. Again, this quarter we provided a clear illustration of our ability to optimize our portfolio with the recent divestment of non-core activities combined with the ongoing redeployment of capital from Bank of the West. So to conclude on this first slide, strong results supported by a diversified model with a solid operational performance of our businesses within each division and a low level of cost of risks. Moving on to slide four, we take this opportunity based upon these strong quarterly results to confirm our 24 guidance within an overall environment that we expect to be more favorable in the second half of 24. First and foremost, our trajectory in 24 will be supported by the growth in our revenues, which we expect to be above 2% versus last year, our continued discipline on costs with positive jaws and our strong risk management culture, keeping the cost of risk below our 40 bps guidance. Hence, as previously announced, our net income for 24 will exceed 11.2 billion euros, which was our distributable net income in 23. Such an increase in our net income will come from the performance of our operational division with well-identified growth levels and tailwinds. On top of additional operational efficiency measures, credit quality of our portfolio and the deployment of capital internal catalysts will play a role. Namely, the current adaptation of personal finance with positive impacts on pre-tax income already seen in 2024. At CIB, further market shaggings and the end of the significant base effect in Europe on global markets revenues. The gradual throughput of lower interest rates will also benefit our specialized businesses within CPBS, reducing the pressure on financing costs. This shall allow us to overcome the after-tax negative impact of regulatory headwinds of €500 million in 2024, as well as the normalization of used car prices impacting Arval. And I would now like to hand it over to Lars, who will take you through the group and divisional results.

speaker
Lars

Thank you, Jean. Good afternoon, fine ladies and gentlemen. If we browse through the document, I suggest skipping slide 6 with more details on the P&L and a clear demonstration of our solid operating performance with, if I can single out one number, a strong increase in earnings per share, clocking in at 2.51 euros. So if we turn to slide 7, where we give a global view of exceptional items this quarter. In particular, there are two main non-operating items. The first one relates to the reconsolidation of Eucurcy Bank. For the record, we hold 60% of Eucurcy Bank, the remaining 40%. is owned by the EBRD. And I remind you, they are operating at that more than 200 branches. This reconsolidation from January 1st, 2024 represents an exceptional gain of 226 million in the first quarter from an operational point of view. The QC Bank's contribution to our first quarter results include 77 million in revenues and 46 million in pre-tax income. The second element is a capital gain on the sale of 80% of our personal finance activities in Mexico that have been concluded in March as part of PF's strategic refocusing on the Eurozone and core countries, which represent an exceptional result of €180 million. These positive impacts roughly neutralize the usual adaptation costs that we have as well as the impact of IS29 linked to the hyperinflation situation in Turkey. Let's now swipe to slide eight on the performance by operating divisions, which illustrates clearly the strength of the model, the diversified business model. Overall, revenues were stable year on year in first quarter 24 compared to a year ago. In a normalized market environment, the CIB revenues were resilient, down 4% year-on-year, with a record quarter at global banking, plus 6%, a very good performance at security services, up 7%, with strong volumes and good resilience in global markets activities. They are reducing by 12%, but are supported the continued growth of our equity business and the strength of our prime brokerage platform. As expected, our FIG business was impacted by a significant base effect in the first quarter 2023, given the high demand in Europe for rates, forex, and in particular also commodities. This base effect in Europe is expected to end in the second quarter. When we switch to CPBS, The first quarter was positive with overall stable revenues, supported by the good performance of commercial and personal banking, up 1%, driven by growth in fees, up 4%, as well as increasing net interest revenues, up 5% year on year, when setting aside the negative impact of the Belgian government bonds, the ECB mandatory reserves, and the inflation hedges. representing around 150 million euros this quarter, but that will taper off towards the end of the year. Thirdly, also a resilient performance of the specialized business, so the other part of our CPBS, minus 0.7% year-on-year, supported by the early recovery of personal finance with higher volumes, notably in mobility and improved model. Arval is still being impacted by the normalization of used car prices, though still at a high level. So lastly, a very good performance this quarter from the new digital businesses. So this sums up CPBS, and let's move to the third division, IPS, which also saw strong performance in revenues, up 4% year-on-year when we exclude real estate and principal investments. In particular, wealth management and insurance delivered strong revenue growth of respectively 5% and 4% year-on-year. If we now turn to slide 9 and let's look at the costs of the operating divisions. Overall, costs are down, as mentioned earlier by Jean-Laurent, by 1.5% year-on-year. Thanks to strong discipline on costs, operating expenses were contained despite the prolonged inflationary context. If we look at the divisions, CIB, operating JAWS were under control with global banking and security services delivering very positive JAWS effects, 6.5 and 7.8 points respectively, combined with a significant decrease at global markets of 8% year-on-year. Second division, CPBS, contained growth in its operating expenses. If we look at the commercial and personal banking, very positive jaws for BNL and Luxembourg, whereas Belgium was impacted negatively by the banking taxes that we talked about at the end of last year. Within the specialized businesses, costs support growth with positive jaws effects for personal finance and leasing solutions. Thirdly, operating expenses were stable at IPS with very positive jaws effects of 3.9% when we exclude real estate and principal investments. So if we focus a second on costs and we turn to slide 10. In our plan 2025, so GTS 2025, we committed to a Jaws effect of at least two points on average and announced cumulative cost savings of 2.3 billion recurring between 2022 and 2025, so recurring basis as of 2025. we are well on track to deliver on both accounts. During the first quarter, costs have evolved well below inflation. Moreover, and in order to get there, in 2024, we are accelerating and enlarging our operational efficiency program with a further cost saving of 400 million to begin paving off in the second quarter, resulting in total cost savings in 2024 of 1 billion euros and stepping up the total recurring savings to 2.7 billion. We are implementing this while continuing to support growth of our businesses and investing in our future. Basically, the 400 million additional savings offset the impact of inflation. Our industrial priorities remain clearly mutualization via near and offshoring. It also is continuing automation, robotization, digitalization Thirdly, acceleration in the rollout of the cloud and the use of artificial intelligence for optimization and flexibility in our premises. And lastly, discipline in managing our external expenses. So we've talked about the top line. We've talked about the cost. Let's now talk about the cost of risk. And let's do this by looking at slide 11. So the trend of the past five years provides a clear illustration of our strong risk management culture, as also mentioned in the beginning by Jean-Laurent. Our risk management has been quite efficient on two main contributors in terms of cost of risk for BNP Paribas, namely personal finance and BNL, thanks to repositioning of the portfolios therein. So our exposure, moreover, to commercial real estate is quite low, representing less than 4% of our portfolio, and With the sale of Bank of the West, we hardly have any exposure in the United States. So let me also stress our pretty high stock of so-called Stage 1 and 2 provisions that are close to 5 billion euros. I let you peruse the cost of risk of our divisions on the next slide. You will basically observe they are characterized by variations on the theme, quote-unquote, low cost of risk. If with this, so we talked about the top line, the cost, the cost of risk, let's also look at the capital. So if we look at the capital redeployment that we are so far, as you can see, things are well underway. As announced, we will have invested relatively half of the total, so 55 basis, so half of the total. We expressed the capital to be redeployed of Bank of the West. as basis points of the common equity T1 ratio. So we have 110 basis points to redeploy. And by the summer, we will have done 55. And I remind you that the return that is generated by that in 2025 will be above 16, so 1.6%. So the redeployment took place with a variety of organic and inorganic opportunities having materialized in the past two years. To make it simple, one-third have been redeployed organically, particularly at CIB to support clients. Two-thirds have been redeployed through partnerships and bolt-on acquisitions. Our goal is to promote the long-term interests of our franchises and our shareholders, meaning that these investments should provide long-term value to the group by consolidating its positions in growth areas or bring scale and complement our product offering and our team's expertise. Several transactions have already taken place in the insurance sector, and we just signed an agreement with Fosunto Acquire. It's around 9% stake in Aegeus, whose subsidiary, AGI, in which BNP Paribas owns, BNP Paribas Fortis owns 25%, exclusively manages property and casualty insurance, as well as life insurance distributed by BNP Paribas for this. Another thing is mobility. It's also a strategic sector for us, as you know, and we are growing our transversal mobility initiatives thanks to partnerships and bolt-on acquisitions involving personal finance, Arval, Cardiff, CID. Furthermore, strong assets and technological platforms, we have been able to move on Let's take Flora in payments or Cantox on Forex, and they allow an expansion of the offering. Lastly, there are aspects like what we've done with BPOS Bank in Belgium, a way to improve the operational efficiency of our retail activities through the integration of external networks. So good progress is being made and opportunities are being explored organically or through external growth. Having said that, so the redeployment of the capital, let's turn to the capital. Let's go to slide 14. And as you see that at the end of the first quarter, our common equity tier 1 clocked in at 13.1%, a solid level well above our objective to fly at 12%. Compared to year-end 2023, there is an evolution of 10 basis points down, resulting from the combined impact of, on one hand, organic capital generation, net of charges, changes in the risk-created assets in the first quarter, so that's basically generating 30 basis points. Out of this, there is, of course, setting aside the distribution in the first quarter, that being saying 50% in cash, 10% in share buyback, so minus 10%. 20 basis points. So there is 10 basis points uptick. Then there is the capital redeployed from the Bank of the West sale. We talked about that we have progressed by five basis points. So there's five basis points that are consumed. And then there is the regulatory effect that's requiring an updating of models as we had announced at the year end. So there is 15 basis points that is consumed. And that's basically in the anticipation of the CRR3 that is to come. And so other impacts on the ratio were limited overall. So then there are many other ratios. I'll basically skim through that rapidly. You have the leverage ratio. It clocked in at 4.4%, well above our aim to fly at 4.3%. Our liquidity is very strong, so we are flying at 134%. I remind you, well above where we have to be. So having said that, we've talked about the elements of the P&L. Then there is also other things. There is the environment. And so you know that ESG is very important to us. That's what you see on slide 15. And so last quarter, we showed the strong acceleration of our commitment to financing the production of low carbon energies and exit fossil fuels. As an illustration, we selected this quarter major innovative solutions In each of our three divisions, major debt raising in CIB, a combined offer of services in mobility of CPBS by Arval and Leasing Solutions, and the launch of the first global equity fund dedicated to the net zero transition. So that is a bit more detail on why the results of the first quarter are comforting us in reconfirming our overall guidance. So if we now look at the divisions, so if you follow me and we go on to slide 17 where we start with CIB. What you have seen this quarter is our unique CIB model once again at work, delivering a strong performance thanks to its unique and very differentiated positioning. If we look first at global banking, revenues at 1.5 billion euros posted a record quarter. I'm not bragging about it, but that's how it turns out to be. and it is up 6% in EMEA and the Americas. Revenues in particular were up sharply in the capital markets platform, particularly in the Americas and EMEA. They posted also strong growth in transaction banking, in this case, particularly in EMEA, with virtually stable deposits in cash management during the quarter. If we then turn to financing, The financing activity was very strong in India on the bond markets, market up 26% compared to a year ago, and in syndicated loans, also up 14% compared to a year ago. Finally, loans at €178 billion were down 1.4% compared to a year ago, but up 0.4% compared to the fourth quarter. Deposits at €2.17 billion continued to grow. So that's the first part in CIB. If we now move to global markets, the work accomplished over the last four years, let's say since 2021, with the successful development of the prime brokerage activity and the creation of exams, so cash equities, has allowed global markets to leverage this quarter on the sustained activity in equity and prime services. Within FICs, A tangible increase in credit markets has partially offset the decline in the macro environment amidst a normalization reflecting a base effect versus the first quarter 2023. Such a base effect is expected to end the next quarter. So this is the last time that we have this base effect as markets started to return to normalized level in the second quarter of 2023. I will come back to that in detail on the next slide. So if we end CIB with security services, the first quarter performance confirms the relevance of the business model with the benefit from new mandates kicking in in the first quarter. With outstandings of 10%, thanks to the positive market environment, revenues went up by 7% year on year. I would call that solid performance. Overall, thanks to a low cost of risk and operating costs well under control, as I mentioned before, CIB pre-tax income reached a significant level, 2 billion euros, up 2.4% year on year. If we now take a look at slide 18, where we focus on the FIC activities, as I mentioned. So FIC revenues in the first quarter, 24, when you compare it with the first quarter in 23 and 22, those revenues are down. And I remind you that 23, so the first quarter, 22 and 23, formed a very high base, in particular for European activities, due to the exceptional geopolitical and financial conditions over these five quarters in Europe. But still, BNP Paribas FIC in the first quarter, the revenues are on average significantly higher than the revenues of the other quarters. If we look at the history since 2021, which shows our continuous market share gain. In particular, when you combine the fact that we are a leader in Europe with 60% of the fake earnings generated in that region, and that that region has been impacted by the normalization of rates, Forex, in 2022, so a comparison quarter on quarter doesn't really make sense. Having said this, intrinsically, the story of global markets is all about continuing to take market share quarter after quarter. As such, this will continue in 2024, especially in EMEA. Furthermore, we will also continue to invest in the Americas and in credit business. So to conclude, we have a platform with our FIG activities that is very well positioned for growth. So that's CIB. If you now stick with me and we turn to slide 19, where we look at CPBS. So CPBS delivered solid results for the first quarter with good business momentum offsetting headwinds. Indeed, the performance of the division has been marked by those headwinds that appeared during the second half of 2023, with a total negative impact of nearly 150 million euros in the first quarter, of which around 50 million euros related to the French inflation hedges, 50 million related to the Belgian bonds, and 50 million euros to the mandatory reserves of Frankfurt. So this in line with our previous assessments as we made at the year end. Overall, these headwinds will weigh on our first half results and will gradually taper off in the second half of 2024, in the third quarter for French inflation hedges, in the fourth quarter for the Belgian bonds. Adding to that, the normalization of used car prices for Arval also weighed on the first quarter performance. On the other hand, we have seen positive drivers this quarter. First, positive business momentum with commercial and personal banking supporting intrinsic growth in net revenues, up 5% year-on-year, setting aside the identified headwinds. In addition, our capacity to generate value with fees has been confirmed. Fees were up 4.4% this quarter, supported by a good performance in France and Europe Med. Talking about Europe Med, we are now able to regain control of our commercial and personal banking activities in Ukraine, as mentioned before. Regarding the specialized businesses, let me point out a few positive drivers. Overall, the increase in financial margin and margin on services driven by high volume. For personal finance, the shift to mobility is materializing with increased volumes in relation to our partnership with Stellan. Margins at production are improving, supporting growth in revenues. Lastly, our new digital businesses confirmed their role as a new client acquisition engine with the continued expansion of our client base at Nikon. Overall, CPBS revenues clocked in at 6.7 billion euros in the first quarter, stable year-on-year, and so driven by, first, the good performance of commercial and personal banking, up 1%, And second, the resilience of the specialized businesses down 0.7%. As a result of dynamic growth at specialized businesses, loans at CPBS were up 1.8%. Deposits down 1.7%, mainly driven by the impact of the Belgian government bonds. They were stable overall versus the fourth quarter, 23%. Now, moving into some further details about the business drivers of commercial and personal banking in the Eurozone. In France, good business resilience in a normalized environment. Net interest revenues were stable, excluding headwinds. Our exposure to regulated savings remained low compared to the market. As well as the proportion of our demand deposits in our total deposits, which remains high compared to the market. What is also important is the confirmation of our strong capacity to generate fees. So up 5%, driven by our ability to cross out with the insurance activities or to leverage on our strong presence in cash management. As announced, net interest revenues were impacted by inflation in the amount of negative 54 million euros in the first quarter, in line again with our estimates and what we've mentioned. If we go to Italy, the positive impact of interest rates on deposit margins for BNL was quite substantial, with an acceleration this quarter due to growing volumes, in particular on corporate deposits. Net interest income grew by 13.7% year-on-year. Fees were stable. If we turn to Belgium, results were significantly impacted by the government bonds. Deposits were quasi-stable when excluding the impact of the issuance of the Belgian government bonds, and I remind you, they are maturing in September of this year. Excluding headwinds, net interest income in Belgium were down 1.7% on resilient performance considering the very competitive environments on loan margins in that country. Fees were down 2.5%, with higher financial fees being offset by lower banking. If we turn to Luxembourg, net interest revenues up 9% year-on-year. If we move to Europe Mediterranean, we see good business momentum in Poland supporting the growth in net interest revenues and increased fees in Turkey. You can see the negative impact of hyperinflation in Europe Med pre-tax income through a decrease 76 million euros compared to a year ago. Also, If I can ask you to look at slide 20, where we provide some further color on our ambitions in the payments and flow initiative, which has basically joined CPBS and CIB. And so we basically step up our ambitions that we announced before. But first, let me remind you why we consider payments and flow as a strategic initiative. Payments are at the cornerstone of a banking relationship, serving a broad range of customers, Individuals to corporates, small, large, supporting them in their day-to-day businesses through secured processes. Payments are also an incredible source of data to build value-added services, again, for individuals or merchants. But more importantly, this is a fee business, partly recurring but also linked to transaction volumes and the source of liquidity. Hence, a business that creates value for our clients and shareholders. Second, BNP Paribas is a key player in the payment ecosystem with a unique position. Let's start with our European leadership in cash management. According to the latest ranking by Coalition Greenwich, we are number one in penetration rate with European large corporates at 51%, widening the gap with the number two and number three competitors. Our pan-European presence allows for the full coverage of retail payment services in the countries. In the context of the GTS plan 2025, BNP Paribas had announced an initial objective of additional revenues linked to our payment and flow initiative of €600 million compared to 2021. This target has been reached. and even exceeded two years in advance, and we are pleased to confirm that we have set a new target of additional revenues linked to this initiative at €800 million, so topping it up by €200 million. If this concludes CPBS, let's turn to the third division, IPS. During the first quarter, IPS revenues grew by 0.8% and by 4.2% when excluding real estate and principal investments. showing the very positive business momentum of insurance, asset management, wealth management. Starting with insurance, revenues were up 4.2% and gross rate and premiums were up 27%. In savings, activity was sustained thanks to a sharp increase of 34% year-on-year in gross asset inflows and good business drives, particularly in France, supporting the growth in net inflows. Good performance also in protection, thanks to the rollout of new partnerships, as well as the continued expansion of existing partnerships. Dynamic business activity and revenue growth at wealth management and asset management, with revenues up year-on-year, respectively 5% and 2.6%. Supported by the relationship with high-network clients, internationally and from our commercial and CB banking networks, Wealth management saw net asset inflows of 8 billion euros, combined with a strong market performance, pushing overall assets under management up by 4%. Client transactions rebounded, driving fees upwards. Strong business drive with asset management would grow in assets under management, supporting higher fees. Of note, a sustained net inflow of 7 billion euros, driven by money market and passive On the downside, the continued downturn in real estate combined with a base effect for principal investments. So that's the synthesis of IPS. And then if you look also at the key element of it on page 22, I let you review the trend in global assets and the management. You have a clear representation of the main drivers we just described with good net asset inflow of 17.7 billion euros, combined with a strong market performance impact of about 27 billion euros. Overall, our assets under management clocked at 1.3 trillion euros driven by market performance effects and net inflows. I now hand it back to Jean-Laurent for concluding remarks.

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