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Bnp Paribas Spons Adr
4/24/2025
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas First Quarter 2025 results with Jean-Laurent Bonafé, Group Chief Executive Officer, and Lars Maschineel, Group Chief Financial Officer. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question, please make sure to be in a quiet area to maximize audio quality. I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonafé, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We are pleased to present a summary of our strong first quarter results and to have the opportunity to reiterate our 24-26 trajectory. But before I start, let me provide a brief commentary on the current environment. Of course, we acknowledge elevated uncertainties in the markets and the economic environment, but the best way to face them is to be ready first to support our clients, And in that respect, our focusing on high-quality customers and our readiness to help them redirect or adjust their investment plans is our top priority. Ready to monitor our risk, credit and market risk are monitored very closely, and we still have S1 and S2 provision to help absorb some of the deterioration should it materialize. And of note, investment-grade clients represent 78% of our credit exposure. ready also to grasp investment opportunities. The first quarter marked an acceleration in funding commitments by European governments. What is new is the wake-up call for Europe. The German 1 to 1.5 trillion investment plan and the EU 800 billion readiness program are just first steps. Finally, ready to capitalize on the likely changes to come in the European capital markets, including SIU. We advocate with European authorities to ensure a level playing field, particularly with regard to the FRTB, and we are already ready, thanks to our originate to distribute platform and SRT capabilities, to accelerate the financing of European investment needs in a capital light way. So now let me turn to our results. Moving to slide four, our revenues are up 3.8% this quarter, with our operating divisions up 6.1% in line with the trajectory we set for 26. During the quarter, CAB posted an impressive 12.5% revenue growth, including more than 17% at global markets. It was a record quarter for the division. CPBS was up 1.2%, despite lower used car sales results at Arval, which are in line with our trajectory. The quarter confirmed a gradual inflection at our Eurozone commercial banks, which are up 1% year-on-year, but also a strong 19% increase at Euromet, thanks to a much improved performance in Turkey and Poland. Finally, IPS posted a strong 6.6% growth, particularly driven by wealth management and insurance. Our commitment to cost control remains strong and we are on track to deliver a cost savings of 600 million this year, with 190 million of cost savings already implemented in Q1. Our cost of risk remains moderate at 33 bps, marginally up on the first quarter of 24, but still well below our guidance of below 40 bps. Our stage 3 provisions are stable year on year, but 24 benefit from releases. Overall, operating divisions generated positive Jaws effect of 1.9 points and an operating income growth of 6.7%, very close to our group net income growth target of 7% CAGR. All in all, our net profit was down 4.9% without compromising our trajectory of profitability. The gap between the operating income of the division and the net profit is explained by higher positive exceptional last year and the lower contribution from the corporate center this quarter, which will be rebalanced before year end, starting with the second quarter. As a reminder, last year's first quarter benefited from high positive exceptional elements, mostly the 226 million euro benefit from the reconsolidation in Ukraine. Our CT1 is down 50 bps quarter on quarter to 12.4%, but is stable compared with the first January, reflecting finalization of Basel for 50 bps. This is in line with what we guided for. Finally, we obviously confirm our policy distribution of 60%. We have already received the approval for our share buyback program of 1 billion, and we will launch it in the second quarter. Moving now to slide five on our growth trajectory. Of course, we acknowledge the scale of the challenges relating to U.S. tariffs and policy shifts. Nonetheless, in this context, We believe that our dividend-severed model and the growth levels we have implemented will enable us to meet our targets. So our mission remains to reach a return on tangible equity of 11.5% in 2025, 12% in 2026, leading to more than 7% group net income growth CAGR. And more precisely, our internal target for 2025 is currently much higher than current market expectations. This should result in more than 8% EPS growth CAGR. Our 26% return on tangible equity is only a stepping stone towards further improvement. Our targets will be achieved thanks to five key levels that you should have in mind. Starting with CIB, we will continue to grow market shares in a capital conscious manner, thanks to our state-of-the-art CIB platforms that are uniquely positioned to deliver the highest added value products to clients. Moving to CPBFs, we launched a new strategic plan for CPBF and extended the one for personal finance. We intend to lift the return on notional equity of these businesses to a minimum of 17% by 28, adding about 1% touchpoint to group return on tangible equity, and we will present these plans in two deep dive sessions in June. Our revenues in the Eurozone commercial banks should also benefit from normalization of the yield curve. we will prioritize protecting commercial margins in competitive market environments. We expect the second half of this year to show a pronounced rebound of NII. Moving to IPS, we will continue the dynamic organic growth of insurance, asset management and wealth management. This organic growth will be amplified by the acquisitions of HSBC Wealth Management Germany and of course AXA AM. Finally, we will continue our efficiency efforts with €600 additional cost savings in both 2025 and 2026. On slide 6, you can see our positioning. We believe that our revenue trajectory for 2024-2026 is underpinned by the growth levels just detailed. Some of those levels are self-created, such as AXA-IM and the recovery of NII in the Eurozone, but also thanks to significant cross-selling between our businesses, which account for a third of our total revenues. Our trajectory should also benefit from the acceleration of investment spending by European governments and the private sector to fund the significant investments we all know Europe needs in infrastructure, energy transition and defense, to name a few. The German growth plan voted in March and Europe's readiness program represents significant amounts of around 2 trillion euros, which should contribute to buffer GDP growth and trigger significant borrowing that we can facilitate thanks to our originate to distribute model. All in all, we remain confident in our ability to deliver CAGR revenue growth of more than 5% by 26, including external growth. Let me now move to our resilient profiles throughout the cycle. Our diversified profile, both in terms of sectors, geographies and business lines, enables us to find the right balance between growing distribution to shareholders and growing our tangible net asset value per share. This, of course, shows our organic and external growth. We continue to benefit from a low credit and market profitably profile and a key feature of our DNA. You can see that our cost of risk remains low and absorbs only 16% of our gross operating income. One of the main reasons for this is our very granular sectoral diversification, with no sector accounting for more than 4% of our overall exposures. Our selective origination also ensures we are basically exposed to the most resilient corporates. And now hand over to Lars, who will remind you of the achievements of the quarter.
Thanks Jean-Laurent. On slide 11, you can see that the first quarter of 2025 was driven by solid business performances within each division. We will have noticed in our slides this morning that we introduced a summary dashboard for each of our operating divisions, so you can analyze in a more straightforward way our operational performance. So overall group revenues were up 3.8% year-on-year, including 6.1% step-up for operating divisions. If we look at them, for example, starting with CIB, as mentioned by Jean Laurent, it had a record quarter, up 12.5% year-on-year, driven by a very good performance in all three sub-businesses. If we look at them first, at global banking, it was up 4.5%, supported by capital markets. Transaction banking showed dynamism as volumes managed to offset the impact of lower rates. If we then look at global markets, activities were up 17.3%, driven by a very strong 42% growth in equity and prime services, and a robust performance for FIC, which was up 4.4%, and particularly driven by macro, particularly foreign exchange. rates benefited from modest growth and credit was down as a primary activity did not offset weaker credit trading flows the third security services was up 13.4 percent driven by a sustained growth in fees thanks to balances and transactions as well as resilient interest margin if then we turn to the second division cpbs had a resilient performance up 1.2%, supported by commercial and personal banking activities. If we look at it, a few points are worth highlighting. If we look at our commercial banks, they were up 4.2% this quarter, consistent with our trajectory for the next two years and supported in particular by solid fee growth. Within this commercial banking concept, we have also the commercial banks in the Eurozone, They grew 0.6%, which is consistent with our trajectory of 3% growth over the year. Let me clarify, because on one hand, the positive impact of higher rates will accelerate in the second half of 2025 as the lag from deposit makes tapers off. So from side deposits into paying deposits, it's tapering off. Moreover, the ECB rates environment should be supportive of stabilizing this deposit mix. And moreover, the shape of the yield curve should enable us to continue our reinvestment on the long end of the curve with the progressive net interest income rebound. Furthermore, fee growth was strong at around 5% in all Eurozone banks, including a strong performance in financial fees. Then the other part within that division is Europe Med, where the revenues were up for 19%. This is due to the margin improvement in Poland and Turkey, as well as fees, particularly in payments in Turkey. Of course, the environment in Turkey going forward might be less favorable due to the slower decrease in interest rates. So that is the commercial banking section of CPBS. If we now turn to the second part, specialized businesses. They were down 3.6% year on year, impacted by the ongoing normalization of used car prices as we have flagged previously. Organically, Arval performed extremely well again this quarter, up 12%, even when excluding a positive one-off of around 50 million. So outperforming our guidance of more than 10% in growth this year. This growth, this P&L growth, is supported by fleet growth of 5% and outstandings of 14%. The other part in specialized businesses is personal finance core. I remind you that the non-core part, which is basically ramping off, is in corporate center. And so the personal finance core is driven by a solid commercial performance. Let me name some examples. The deployment of Apple partnership in France, the regular progression of the B2C, the good performance of mobility, especially in the partnership with Stellantis. There is also an increased margin at production, so at personal finance, with the main effect coming from repricing, which should lead to acceleration of revenues throughout the year. Last, a very good performance from the new digital businesses and personal investors. Up an organic 13% this quarter, thanks to further growth in client acquisition, as well as a high level of transactions. But note the disposal of an activity in the fourth quarter 2024, which impacts both the revenues and costs this quarter. So these are two of the three divisions. So let's end with the third one, not the least. It's IPS. So we saw strong growth in fees thanks to a high level of transactions. If we look at assets under management, they were boosted by strong inflows, but were impacted by negative forex and towards the end of the quarter, lower market levels. IPS is about to become an even more sizable driver of our growth with the acquisition of AXA-IM, which we expect to close early July. Now, if you look at the divisions within IPS, insurance revenues were up 4%, particularly by healthy savings activities in France. Then wealth management was up nearly 11% on strong fee growth, and asset management was up 6% thanks to good fee growth and good performance of financial investments. Let me add a comment next to those three divisions on the corporate center, basically complementing What Jean-Laurent said, it was impacted the quarter by the valuation of a few items at fair value. But nevertheless, we do not change our guidance for the corporate center of revenues close to zero, excluding IFRS 17, as Jean-Laurent mentioned. If with this, we turn to slide 12, which shows that our cost discipline is paying off. At the group level, the draws are very slightly negative this quarter, but stand at 1.9 points at the level of our operating divisions and are consistent with our stated trajectory running into 2026. We continue to allocate cost growth to fund development while we intend to continue to offset inflation by cost savings. If we look at the divisions, CIB reported positive draws of 4.4 points with cost driven mainly by increased activity. I remind you that global markets had significant accrual of variable compensation, which basically reflects the business momentum. CPBS posted negative jaws of 0.7 points. This includes positive jaws, in fact, at personal finance, leasing, and new businesses and personal investors. So it's basically Arval. We also highlighted the positive jaws about one point at the commercial banks in the Eurozone. Finally, IPS, positive jaws, 3.9 points. So with this, if we go to slide 13, which focus our cost savings and efficiency measures, this quarter we implemented 190 million of new cost savings, consistent even ahead a bit of our full target, which was 600 million to offset the inflation. If with this, we turn to slide 14, where I focus on our excellent risk management. And on this slide, you can see that our diversified balance sheet enables us to protect profitability. Once again, in the first quarter, only 16% of our gross operating income, so revenues minus cost, was absorbed by provisions. Our cost of risk remains low, 33 basis points, up on the first quarter of 2024, but still at the low level and well below our guidance of being below 40 basis points. It is mostly the cost of risk composed of Stage 3 loans with limited releases this quarter. Overall, our stock of stage one and two provisions is comfortable at above 4 billion euros, equivalent to more than a year worth of current stage three run rate. By division, we note particularly low level at BNL and a normalized being at low level in global banking. Despite the increase in personal finance, we continue to see a positive mix that supports our structural improvement going forward. Let me now address capital management on slide 16. Our common equity T1 is down 50 basis points, clocking in at 12.4% due to the finalization of Basel and is stable 1st to January 1st. So you know the impact of the 50 basis points of the finalization of Basel happened in the night of the 31st to the 1st. So within the quarter itself, it's basically stable. And so this figure is fully loaded but before FRTB. So if you look at the drivers, basically we have the typical organic capital, and this organic capital is after setting aside a generous 60% for the distribution, that organic capital leads to 10 basis points. This quarter, it was offset by the impact of model updates typically that we do every year, and this is in line also with our guidance. And so our CET1 remains comfortably above our strep requirement and is above our 12.3% target before FRTB. If with this, I rapidly skim through the remaining slides, if I look at slide 20 and 21, you see the track record of our CIB division reaching a record level this quarter. The key message I want you to take away today is that our CIB is stronger than it ever was and is well positioned with corporate and institutional clients to face the challenges and opportunities that today's environment represents. Our capital, cost, and risk discipline are key assets to ensure a sustainable shareholder value growth. If with this, we move to slide 22 and 23, so CPBS. First, as we indicated last quarter, we are working hard to improve the divisions not delivering adequate returns. more color will be provided during two deep dives that will take place in June. Secondly, you see that the deposit evolution and the anticipated yield curve underpin our top line outlook for CPBS this year. And so finally, if I can ask you to look at slide 24, 25 on IPS. This division will represent the biggest growth driver for the group in the next few years, and we are looking forward to completing in early July the AXA-EM deal. I remind you, a deal which is both strategically and industrially very, very important. As you would have seen recently, the ECB has communicated its interpretation of the prudential treatment concerning deals with asset managers independent if they belong to insurance activities. If the stance by the SSM were to prevail, the impact on our common equity T1 would be slightly higher than the expected 25 basis points and would gravitate to 35 basis points. And we will finalize these numbers in July after the closing while we do the PPA. But one should know that the AXA deal that we have signed consists actually of two different items. On one hand, it consists of a long-term contract with AXA. And on the other hand, the acquisition of AXA-EM. And they required a different handling. And our read of that handling is that the common equity tier one impact will not be 25, but would in that case be 35. But this evolution would not endanger our capital or profitability trajectories. The expected return on invested capital would be in any case significant at 14% in 2028 and above 20% in 2029. So if the 35 basis points would prevail, it would basically delay the full savings by a year. As we said, we will provide more details on the synergies later in the year. So in either case, the strategic appeal of this transaction and the positioning it will have on long-term savings solutions make this acquisition a cornerstone for IPS and our ambition to increase the share of earnings from this division to 20% medium term, so 20% of the overall bank, and 25% longer term. So with this, I think I've highlighted most of the things. I'll now hand it back to Jean-Laurent. Thank you, Lars. Sorry.
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