7/23/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Thank you for holding. The conference will start shortly. © transcript Emily Beynon Thank you for watching! Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently on hold for the presentation of BNP Paribas second quarter 2026 results, hosted by Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer, and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. If you would like to participate to the Q&A session, please limit your questions to a maximum of two in order to ensure that all attendants are able to participate. Thank you for holding. The conference will start shortly. © transcript Emily Beynon © BF-WATCH TV 2021 Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently on hold for the presentation of BNP Paribas Second Quarter 2026 results hosted by Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer, and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. If you would like to participate to the Q&A session, please limit your questions to a maximum of two in order to ensure that all attendants are able to participate. Thank you for holding. The conference will start shortly. Edited and Directed by Michel Cantigneaux Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently on hold for the presentation of BNP Paribas second quarter 2026 results hosted by Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer and and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. If you would like to participate to the Q&A session, please limit your questions to a maximum of two in order to ensure that all attendants are able to participate. Thank you for holding. The conference will start shortly. Thank you for watching! A film by Jean-Laurent Bonnafe Thank you for watching! Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas second quarter 2026 results with Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer For your information, this conference call has been recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website invest.bnpparibas.com During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
Group Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We are proud to present very strong second quarter results, which further strengthens our conviction that we will beat our 26th trajectory. We are well on track towards our 28th target of double-digit earnings growth, CAGR over 2528, something that is not yet fully reflected by consensus. Our CT1 is now a target paving the way for accelerated distribution in the future. I will first start with a summary of our results on slide 4. Q2 amplified the solid positive trend we showed in the previous quarter. Revenue rose at a very strong rate of 12%, a level we have seen for a decade. Joe's effect was just shy of 3.7 points at constant scope and exchange rate and is at 1.6 points on a reported basis reflecting largely the impact of the XI integration. Cost of risk was stable at 39 BIPs including 95 million of addition to S2 provisions for geopolitical environment and remains within our guidance of less than 40 BIPs which we observe through the cycle. All in all, this means that operating income was up nearly 16%. Below the operating income line, we obviously also have the AGEAS-AGEIN transaction, which means that net profit was up by one-third. Beyond our very strong earnings, we also continue to deliver on capital. Our CT1 reached 13%, up 20 basis points, meaning that We have already reached our target, previously set out for 27, end of 27. We'll come back to our distribution outlook in a few minutes, but let me mention that we'll be paying an interim dividend of 3.23 euro, equivalent to 50% of our first half 26 EPS. Obviously, having reached the milestone of 13% was important, but we intend to continue and Bill Capitole. If we focus on our revenues, they have up 12% with well-balanced growth between the businesses. More than two-thirds of our businesses generated revenue growth in excess of 9%. CREBI revenues accelerated sharply, up 13%, driven by global markets and security services. Global banking pivoted this quarter and we see a strong momentum moving forward into the second half of this year. CPBS revenues maintain a very positive upward trend, up 5%, helped by strong NII and commercial momentum illustrated by increased financial fees. CPB was particularly impressive with revenues up 9%. Finally, IPS grew 27% or more than 8% at constant scope supported by market effect and organic growth in all divisions. Let's now move to slide five, which highlights the positive momentum in the red sensitive part of CPBS, namely our commercial banks in the Eurozone and personal finance. The second quarter accelerated further with revenues up 8.2%. This very strong top line growth reflects the strong momentum We expect it to translate into a sharp profitability increase. Our deposit mix remains stable, enabling the reinvestment of our non-remunerated site deposits on the mid- to long-term end of the curve. Based on the current economic outlook, we expect this favorable environment to extend well into our next strategic plan, taking us through to 2030. CPBS profitability We will also improve substantially thanks to the strategic plans that are already well underway. This is well illustrated on slide 6. After a strong first half of the year, we confidently reconfirm both our 26 and 28 trajectories. Given the strong progress we have already made towards exceeding our 26 targets, who are fully focused on accelerating EPS growth and delivering our double-digit growth target over 2025-2028. We expect our return on tangible equity to exceed 13% in 2028 and this will be driven by strong revenue momentum, very well illustrated in the second quarter, but also tight costs and risk-weight discipline. We will come back to this later. As you see on the right, we are already well advanced in the execution of our strategic plans. We recently presented Belgium and will present BNL in Italy on 18th of November. Aval will follow in the first half 27 once the Athlon acquisition is underway. These plans cover most of CPBS and close to half of the group's risk weight. They all contribute to our return on tangible equity trajectory and share a very ambitious cost income ratio improvement as well as discipline risk weight growth. Overall, we expect our cost-income ratio to fall below 56% in 2028, with a lot more improvement to come by 2030. Finally, our CT1 at 13% already meets our target and we'll consider excess capital for distribution on an annual basis. On slide 7, allow us to remind you of our key targets, double-digit earnings and EPS growth for 2025-2028, and minimum 60% policy from 27. On slide 8, we summarized our equity story ahead of our strategic plan that will be announced on our fourth quarter results on 2nd February 27. Our business model is in fact simple. We have a very well balanced model, both by activity and by geography. It's uniquely powered by cross-selling across business lines accounting for one-third of our revenues. And importantly, each of our three main divisions is on a clear profitability improvement path. In CRB, we have built a division at scale with strong positions across products and regions. Our originate and distribute model is well positioned to benefit from the savings and investment union, supporting further market share gains in the context of the looming investment super cycle. In CPBS, were accelerating profitability through self-help NII tailwinds and strategic initiatives aimed at improving platform efficiency while maintaining disciplined capital management. Finally, in IPS, we are building a leading asset gathering platform supported in particular by the significant scale we have now achieved following the XRIM acquisition. Let's now move to efficiency improvement on slide nine. Earlier in the year, We announce a comprehensive review of our support functions with a view to sharply amplify the annual savings from 700 million annually to 1 billion. We will pool and streamline our application portfolio, amplify the use of AI, and simplify organization, optimizing processes and reducing silos. All divisions, geographies, and functions will be impacted by our actions with and addressable cost base of 15 billion. Focusing on IT support functions, which account for roughly half of the addressable cost base, we have already identified around 80% of the savings targeted by 2030. Importantly, we expect approximately 25% of these savings to be delivered as early as 2027. We will hit the ground running in our next plan. This provides a good illustration of how advanced our preparation work already is. It also gives us confidence that the improvement in our cost-income ratio can accelerate to around 2 points per year from 2027 onwards. We will announce our 2030 targets early next year, but we clearly see a path towards a cost-income ratio of around 50% over the time. Before handing over to Lars, let me say a few words on AI on slide 10. Of course, AI represents a significant opportunity for us to enhance value creation across the Group and will accelerate its deployment in an industrial manner. To support this ambition, I'd share the Group AI Strategy Committee, ensuring strong governance and clear priorities. We'll focus on high-impact use cases with return on equity, on investment with cost control and cyber risk at the heart of our approach. We'll share more details with you when we'll publish our strategic plan early next year. Beyond what we can achieve with AI internally, we also see a significant revenue opportunity from the investment super cycle. Capturing this opportunity will require origination and distribution capabilities as well as investment vehicles to finance future projects. Our integrated business model is well positioned to benefit from this. Let me now hand over to Lars, who will present our second quarter results on slide 12.

speaker
Lars Machenil
Group Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Good afternoon all. I will not spend time on slide 12, as in the meantime you know all our numbers, but zoom on slide 13, where I want to highlight the significant capital gain we booked on the AGI-AGS transaction for 858 million euros. We are particularly pleased with it, not only because of the capital gain, but as it contributes directly to increasing our common equity T1. It also improves distribution to shareholders to the tune of 50 cents per share, and it will add 40 million of annual recurring earnings starting next year. So if you now go back to the business and let's look at slide 14. So you see our revenues are up 12%. or 10.4% at constant scope and exchange rates. So let's first look at CIB. So CIB had an excellent quarter with revenues up 13%. Let's look at the three businesses. First, global banking. So global banking pivoted in the second quarter as FX and rates headwinds that we saw before eased. So we maintained our number one position in EMEA investment in banking amongst European banks. This quarter, we also rank number three in M&A, and we see a strong pipeline for the second half of the year. So that's global banking. If we turn to global markets, which was particularly strong, up 17%, including if you look at equity and prime services, which was up 43%, when we look at FIC, revenues matching those. So EPS is matching those of FICC. FICC was stable compared to a high base last year. Remember, there was a lot of volatility a year ago in April. The third division is security services. It grew by 17%, taking advantage of high market levels, volatility, but also improved margins and client onboarding, of course. If we move to CPBS, up 5%. And as Jean-Laurent explained earlier, Our Eurozone commercial banks are enjoying very strong top-line growth and double-digit net interest income growth on the back of an interest rate environment that is quite favorable to us now and to come. Moreover, client activity was strong, as illustrated by the healthy uptick in financial fees. If you then look at the specialized businesses, they benefited from improved volumes and margins at personal finance. Arval recorded double-digit organic growth, but obviously the geopolitical environment and rising gas prices continue to impact used car sale results. We now turn to the third one, IPS. They reported 27% revenue growth, which reflects the successful integration of AXA-IM. Having said this, the division reported about 8% organic growth, even at constant scope, Thanks to strong business momentum in each of the three divisions. Assets under management were boosted by, on one hand, strong inflows and also market performance. So we've looked at the top line. Let's now move to slide 15 and let's look at the costs. On this slide 15, if you look at the top left, you can see that our jaws reached 1.6% or 3.7% at constant scope and exchange rate. So all in all, At Constant Scope, costs grew around 6%, of which about half variable costs that are linked to the strong revenues, 2% for development, and about 1% inflation, particularly in Europe Mediterranean. If we look at the group level, we keep on track for substantial cost-income ratio improvements, still expecting it to be below 56% in 2028, laying a firm foundation for our next strategic plan ramping up to 2030. As you also see now on the opposite side to the bottom right, a significant portion of the restructuring charges for AXA-IEM integration will be booked this year. So that's one of the drivers between the Jaws effect and the Jaws effect at Constant Scope. So let's now, we've looked at the top line, we looked at the costs, let's now look at the asset quality. And we do this on slide 16 to 18. So on 16, you see the cost of risk reached 39 basis points this quarter in line with the first quarter. The intrinsic cost of risk is stable year on year, and we reinforced our forward-looking provisions by 95 million. We booked that in the corporate center, so you see that in the divisions, cost of risk is stable, and that 95 additional million is to reflect the geopolitical environment. So bar unforeseen step up in these geopolitical tensions, we anticipate a cost of risk to be below 40 basis points over the year 2026. In particular, as I mentioned, on the divisions stable, if you look in particularly on stage three provisions, they show no deterioration and we remain comfortable with the quality of our portfolio. So let me emphasize once again that we are very diversified with little reliance on French economy. I remind you that we have less than 10% of our profit before tax in France. I will not comment on the review per business as I basically synthesized it, but you'll find the details on page 17. So if we can move to slide 18, where we provided an overview of the strong risk culture through the cycle. Indeed, our portfolio offers significant sector diversification and high exposure to investment-grade counterparts. This enables us to reduce the volatility of our cost of risk. We also want to remind you of our selective approach to all credits, but private credits in particular, and private credit which accounts for, let's say, 3% of our loan book, and 90% of that 3% is basically senior portfolio financing. Moreover, this segment has no NPLs and is built on conservative standards with moderate loan-to-values, high diversification, and exposure to the strongest private credit players, so providing further collateral. So having said that, let's now look at the regulatory metrics on slide 19. So as mentioned by Jean-Laurent, common equity 1 reached 13%, so up 20 basis points over the quarter, delivering our target that we had the ambition to be at 13% in 2027. We reached it 18 months earlier. And this shows our commitment to building capital and positions the group for accelerated distribution in the next strategic plan. And so the improvement this quarter, it basically stems on one hand from the very solid results. So that solid results with contained risk-weighted asset growth generates 30 basis points of common equity tier one. Two-thirds of that goes back to the investors. So there's 20 basis points that is accrued for distribution. And then there is 10 basis points parameter, which is basically the AGI-AGS deal. And so note that in the second half of this year, The impact of the acquisition of Atlon, which is coming in the third quarter, will consume around 13 basis points, but this should be offset in the fourth quarter by the divestments of BMCI in Morocco. So that's the capital, but it's not only the capital that is doing well, it's also the liquidity. So we reported a very high LCR at 149% this quarter, So up from 125% a quarter ago. And so these highlights are a strong ability to manage our balance sheet. As a reminder on slide 20, we wanted to give the overview of our SRT and our credit insurance programs, which we have discussed before. As of today, just to look at the impact, we have a cumulative risk-related asset benefit of around 65 billion, which is equivalent to 90 basis points of common equity. So our priority is to diversify SRT so that it's not all happening in one moment and on one sector. And as you can see, we are doing that very well. And we also complement it with credit insurance in order to optimize here the setup. So this gives me the opportunity to update you on the progress also on the Save and Invest Union, which you can see on slide 21. And in particular, from what we understand, in the second half of the year, the European Trilog should be completed. So it's started. So it's the Commission, the Council and the Parliament that basically paved the way for the first phase of SIU implementation in 2027. So this SIU represents a significant opportunity for Europe, but in particular for our CIB originate and distribute model, but also for our IPS asset gathering platform, further strengthened by BNP Paribas as a new and leading alternative assets capabilities. Moreover, so it's good for CIB, it's good for IPS, and also in the meantime, CPBS will be well placed to increase its financing in the real economy. So let me now conclude. We've covered the divisions. We've covered the prudential metrics. Let me conclude on slide 30 with the corporate center. So the corporate center, we are adjusting our trajectory after first half performance that was better than anticipated. While we acknowledge that the corporate center can be volatile from one quarter to another, We now expect a better outcome for the full year than previously thought and guided on. We are therefore adjusting our gross operating loss trajectory from 1.4 billion to 1.2 billion, very much in line with the consensus. Let's not forget this is a sizable amount, but it includes for 800 million of restructuring charges, half of which are related to the integration of AXA-IM. So this is basically the view. I'll now hand it back to Jean-Laurent, who will offer some final remarks and conclude the presentation.

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