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Bnp Paribas Spons Adr
10/28/2026
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the presentation of BNP Paribas third quarter 2026 results with Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. During today's presentation, you will be able to ask your questions by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We are proud to present very strong third quarter results, which further strengthen our conviction that we will beat our 26th trajectory We are well on track towards our 20th target of double digit earnings growth, CAGR, over 2528. We expect to reach a CT1 ratio in excess of 13% at year end. And we are pleased to announce today that we'll launch next Monday our 1.3 billion share buyback program as part of the 26th distribution. As you know, we are finalizing the preparation of our next strategic plan which will present to you on the 2nd of February next year. We are vigilant given the current political environment but the reality is that our group continues in the direction that we have set. Our reliance on France is limited as we are very internationally exposed. We are working on growing our corporate, institutional and affluent client franchise in CIB, CPBS and IPS. and we are preparing our next strategic plan including our efficiency plan. These are our priorities. I will now discuss all these elements starting with a summary of our results on slide 4. Q3 was very strong. Revenues rose at close to double digit with a particularly strong performance of CAB and CPB and a solid performance of IPS. The Joe's effect accelerated further at 4.1 points, and our cost-income ratio improved more than 2 points, in line with the trajectory we envisage in the next strategic plan. Cost of risk was stable at 39 bps, and remains within our guidance of less than 40 bps, which we observed through the cycle. All in all, this means that operating income was up nearly 18%, and Net Profit was up nearly 14%. By now focused on our capital, our CT1 stands at 12.9% reflecting the acquisition of Aslo, but we expect to be strictly above 13% at year end. And we'll be launching next Monday our share buyback program of 1.3 billion euros in anticipation of the distribution of 26 earnings. Let's now move to slide 5, which is a reminder of our cost savings ambition in the next strategic plan. After three quarters in 26, we have achieved 540 million of cost savings and we are well on track to reach our savings target for this year of 700 million. And the savings will further accelerate from next year, reaching 1 billion per annum, Thank you very much. We now move to slide 6, reminding you of our targets. After a strong first 9 months of the year, we confidently reconfirm both our 26 and 28 trajectories. Given the strong progress we have already made towards exceeding our 26 targets, we are fully focused on accelerating EPS growth and delivering on our double-digit growth target over 25-28. We expect our return on tangible equity to exceed 13% in 28, and this will be driven by strong revenue momentum, very well illustrated in this third quarter, but also tight cost and risk-weight discipline. We'll come back to this later. Our strategic plan will be presented on the 2nd February, followed by deep dives throughout the year, starting with CAB on the 25th of February. Our return on tangible equity and cost-income ratio targets will be much improved compared with our 20th ambition and this will allow us to accelerate our distribution based on a strong capital position. This strong capital is well illustrated on slide 7. As you can see, our capital path has improved regularly in the last 15 years and this has been combined with increased distribution to shareholders. We also expect our CT1 to exceed 13% at year end I will consider additional distribution on an annual basis and will provide more clarity on the section of aggregate. Let me now hand over to Lars who will present our third quarter results on slide 9.
Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Good afternoon, everyone. I will now spend time on slide 9. As you know, all our numbers, but all of our aggregates are very strong this quarter and our cost-income ratio improves with more than 2 points. Over the first nine months, our cost-income ratio fell to 59%, underpinning our target of 60% for the year. Let me now move to slide 11, where you see that our revenues are up 9.5%. Let's look at the divisions. CIB first. CIB had an excellent quarter, with revenues up around 17%. and they basically upped in all three divisions. First, global banking accelerated sharply in the third quarter as we anticipated in the second quarter and we maintained our number one position in EMEA investment banking amongst European banks and gained over 60 basis points market share. Secondly, global markets was particularly strong, up 22%. including a 50-5-0% pickup for equity and prime services with revenues exceeding those of FIC this quarter and highlighting strong client appetite and client franchise. Turning to FIC, revenues were stable at a high level supported by APAC and Forex products. Finally, the third division security services grew 18% taking advantage of high market levels, volatility improved margins but also the ongoing client onboarding. That's the first division. Now look at CPVS, up by about 4%. As Jean-Laurent explained earlier, our Eurozone commercial banks are enjoying very strong top-line growth and once again a double-digit net income growth on the back of an interest rate environment that, as you know, is quite favorable for us, notably thanks to the stability of our non-remunerated deposits. Moreover, Client activity was strong as illustrated by the healthy uptick in financial fees. Moreover, the specialized businesses benefited from improved volumes and margins when it comes to personal finance. Regarding Arval, let me start with the underlying momentum, which remains very strong. So organic NBI growth was 12%, supported by fleet growth of 6% and growth in outstandings of around 7%. This strong momentum is currently being impacted by headwinds in the used car market across the industry, exacerbated by geopolitical environments leading to higher fuel prices. And these higher fuel prices mainly affect ICE vehicles. Given the limited visibility on the conflict in the Middle East, our current assumption is that the trend in used car prices might continue. Having this in mind, and giving the average two-year life cycle of the vehicles, it would be reasonable to assume that the benefits from Apple integration will be offset by used car sales. So with Arval and Leasing Solutions gross operating income remaining broadly stable in 2027 compared to 2026. And this before a pivot that is to come in 2028, which is based on the repricing of the vehicles of 2024 and a further improvement So, no impact on our 2030 objectives. So, having said that, Arval is actively managing the environment through lease extensions, international remarketing, and vehicle releasing, all shown strong traction. Adlon will also improve the mix, with EVs representing 31% of its fleet at the end of the third quarter. and importantly, our long-term objectives, as I mentioned, remain unchanged. Used car sales results should trend towards zero over time, making Arval's earnings increasingly driven by fleet management and recurring revenues rather than used car sales. At group level, our diversified model also enables us to offset this headwind, notably to strong performance of CIB and the positive revision to our corporate-centered guidance. So that's CPBS. If I turn to the third division, IPS, revenues were up 5%, thanks to strong commercial momentum, and we are pleased with the solid ramping up of the AXA-IM integration. If we did, we move to slide 12 and 13, where I would like to discuss our cost trajectory. So if we look at 12, our draws were very strong this quarter, 2.8 points for the operating divisions, and 4.1 at Group 1. All our businesses, except obviously Arval and Leasing, generate positive goals between 2 and 11 points. This is something we are particularly proud of, as you can see in the performance of all the businesses at the bottom of the slide. At group level, we are on track for substantial cost-income ratio improvements, still trending to below 56% in 2018, laying a firm foundation for our next strategic plan. If we turn the page, we go to 13, where we show a chart you know well that reflects our cost savings. 200 million this quarter, reaching 540 years to date. The cost income improvement is particularly impressive in CIB, but we are also very pleased with strong progress in the commercial and personal banking in Europe and personal finance. IPS will obviously benefit in 2027, from the significant acceleration in the synergies from AXA-IM and the restructuring charges booked in the corporate center will reduce. So let me now take a look at the asset quality and our risk profile on slides 14 to 16. 14, where you see that the cost of risk stands at 39 basis points each quarter, quarter over quarter and year on year. Compared to last year, The Stage 3 provisions, so the ones that are really linked to non-performing loans, are lower due to a specific file a year ago. Moreover, we did not benefit from Stage 2 releases as we did last year. So intrinsically, that is the evolution. So stable in basis points, but intrinsically an improvement on the S3. So bar an unforeseen stack-up in geopolitical tensions, we anticipate the cost of risk to be below 40 basis points over the year 26. If we turn to slide 15, we remind you of our diversified risk profile by sector, but it is also true by geography. So as you know, but we repeat that we do not depend much on France, given the European and international profile of our client franchise. And given our platform, we are more and more international every year. If I illustrate, 10 years ago, France Banking was 20%, now it's 10% and below. Moreover, our exposure to French sovereign is very limited with only 3 billion of sovereign exposure that is at fair value via OCI, not even P&L. So if we did, we end the review on page 16 and you will see that both commercial and private banking in France and Belgium normalize from a low base and Global Banking also normalizes from a high base, what I mentioned earlier a year ago. Overall, we remain comfortable with our strong asset quality, which is stable at 39 basis points, as mentioned before. If we did, we leave the cost of risk and we go to the capital. So if you can move to slide 17. So our common equity T1 reached 12.9% and this evolution of 10 basis points comes from the following. So first of all, there is 40 basis points that is added to that income net of RWA growth. Of those 40, there is 25 that is called return to shareholder. And then there is 10 basis points related to the OCI movement given the spreads that we observed since August in the banking sector. And then there is 15 basis points from the acquisition of Adr. so intrinsically that leads to this evolution and as mentioned in the fourth quarter we will continue to strengthen the net income but we will also benefit from the disposal of BMCI that is to generate around 1515 basis points and as well we will see our accelerated capital generation and RWA optimization which typically falls at the year end and as such we expect to exceed the level of 13% at the year end And all this paves the way for accelerated distribution. So as such, it's stepped up earnings, stepped up capital, and therefore we feel comfortable to launch the share buyback on 10% of the full year results already in November, so next week. So if we did, as a reminder on slide 18, and there is actually even more to come as the SIU so the Save and Invest Union which is and in particular the securitization framework are progressing very well and are likely to get into force at the beginning of 27. I remind you that this Save and Invest Union represents a significant opportunity Well, on one hand for BNP Paribas, but also for CIB, where the originate and distribute model of CIB, but also the asset gathering platform of IPS, further strengthened with BNP Paribas asset management's new and leading alternative asset capabilities. And that's not only the fact to CIB and IPS, but also CPDS is very well placed to increase with all these levers its financing in the real economy. And so let me terminate with the Co-operative Centre on slide 21, where once again we have improved the guidance of gross operating loss after a 9-month performance that was better than anticipated. And we therefore, as I mentioned just a bit earlier, we adjust our gross operating income trajectory from minus 1.2 billion and we improve it by 200 million to minus 1 billion. I'll now hand it back to you, Jean-Laurent.
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