Bper Banca Spa Unsp/Adr

Buonasera, qui è l'operatrice Chorus Call. Benvenuti alla presentazione dei risultati consolidati del primo trimestre 2021 di BiperBanca. Vi ricordo che tutti i partecipanti sono in modalità di solo ascolto. Dopo la presentazione iniziale ci sarà l'opportunità di porre delle domande. Per ricevere assistenza da un operatore durante la conference call, digitate asterisco seguito da zero. Now I would like to give the floor to Dr. Pierluigi Montani, CEO of Biperbanca. Dr. Montani, please.

Good evening. Welcome to all participants. I am here together with the CFO Roberto Ferrari, responsible for the planning and control of Alessandro Simonazzi, and the investor of Electro, Fabio Pelati. Before I give the floor to the CFO for the detailed illustration of the results, I have been here for 12 days. First of all, I would like to thank those who have preceded me, in particular Alessandro Vandelli, who is here next to me, for the commitment he has made in a phase of growth, together with all the colleagues, fundamental for the BIPER group. As you know, the integration that has been successful in the established times of the 587 subsidiaries and operating points of UBI acquired by the Instituto San Paolo has ended in the first quarter. che ha permesso di rafforzare il posizionamento di tutto il territorio nazionale. Oggi la banca è presente praticamente in tutte le regioni d'Italia, in nove regioni a quote di mercato sportelli superiore al 7,5%. Le regioni in cui siamo presenti sono nell'ordine della Lombardia, la Sardegna, l'Emilia Romagna, le Marche e la Campania, a seguire tutte le altre regioni. Con l'integrazione di queste filiali abbiamo raggiunto 4 milioni e 100 clienti, che sono i 1.400.000 di Ubi, che si aggiungono nel 2007 di BiperBanca. Abbiamo adesso complessivamente 18.284 dipendenti e siamo presenti con 1.857 filiali. The growth in volumes has obviously been significant and this will be added in June to the integration of the other 33 points of sale that we will take into account, which cover masses that are not yet present in the numbers that will be illustrated, an indirect collection of 3.5 billion, customer costs per 1.4 billion and 130,000 customers. as a number of employees in this bank, 5,100 employees, of which 350 have already entered the plan of exit of the company and the costs for the Uber have already been canceled. The numbers are certainly very good, the total collection is equal to 255 billion, with a growth of 37.8%, of which 160 billion of indirect collection. The net financing is equal to 75 billion, with a plus of 45%. Also positive is the income trend. We end with a useful period of 400 million, with an increase in which they contributed both the UBI branch and other significant positions. In the order of the positive Bedouin for 781 million, the impermanence negative for 2030, followed by integration costs of 83.4 million and additional interest rates of 260. The total interest rates were of about 420 million, 260 are those that have been additional, so those that have been used to potentially improve the cancellations even more. The useful performance of the period, according to the taxes, is 105 million. The net operating costs are all increasing, they amount to 757.7 million and what is interesting is that we see for the first time a component of money management and services that is practically equating. The cost of the credit is annualized by 222 bps, but this is also due to the rates excluding the rates of 84 bps. The quality of the credit is also good. The NPI ratio, the net order, respectively, goes down to 5.9 and 3.1. In fact, it would be slightly higher, because we took the result at the beginning of April, as a 190 million euro session, which in fact ended at the end of March, in the first decade of April. The coverage is certainly also interesting. They have remained at important levels. In total, the deteriorated are covered by 49.5%, with an opening suffering 57.8% and the UTP drops to 42.2%. The default ratio denotes a progressive decline since five years, and further decreases from 1% in December to 0.7%. The level of capital is also good, from 100 years to 13.42%, with an important buffer compared to the regulatory requirement of the SREP. As you know, liquidity is certainly very abundant here, the LCR is 200%. the 100% regulatory threshold, we have a liquidity buffer of almost 29 billion more. A quick update also as regards the moratoriums. The moratoriums were in December of this year, as regards the BIPER 11 billion and went down at the end of the year to 7.2 billion. In total, including Ubi, we would be at 16 billion, 11 billion plus 5 billion at 31.3 billion, but those active at 31.3 billion were 8.1 billion. The encouraging thing is that, from a check that the bank made starting in April, we noticed that the insolvencies of the share are really very marginal. The companies that go from 8 to 13 also represent an entity lower than 4%, so I would say that we do not have any negative signals at the moment. However, the fact remains that a great attention is paid to this. Regarding the additional rates, I would like to underline that of the 266 million euros, 170 come back from the adjustments we made in stage 1 and in the generic. This is a testimony to the fact that great attention has been paid both to evaluate possible small negative shifts, therefore increasing the masses, and secondly reviewing the models in a more restrictive way. The coverage of Stage 2 goes from 1.9, on average 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, to 2.40. As for the guaranteed funding of the State, At 31.12 we were at 3.5, now we are at 6.1 billion, 6.1 billion, 4.2 billion in terms of BIPER, plus about 2 billion, 1.9 billion for the exactness of Unibank. In total, the total number of jobs is 6.6% at 31 December and 8.1% at 31 March. I would say that I represented it broadly, trying to be very fast, and I would now pass the floor to Roberto, who, in more detail and with more precision than I can do, given the small period I have been here, will be able to give you even more precise details.

Thank you. Thank you, Minister. I will also try to be extremely concise. Due note metodologiche importanti. La prima è che il trasferimento del ramo ha avuto efficacia giuridica e contabile a partire dal 22 febbraio 2021 e pertanto le grandezze economiche e patrimoniali al 31 marzo 2021 non sono confrontabili con quelle dell'anno scorso. Secondo aspetto, abbiamo completato il processo provvisorio di price per sales allocation e and from a badwill difference of 929 million, we have had negative impacts on non-performing loans of 338 million, positive on performing loans of 220 million, negative on the amount of real estate of about 20 million, negative of 10 million on risk and onerity. Therefore, the post-PPA badwill is equal to 781.5 million. We will see the number again when we look at the economic account. Starting from slide 7, I will go very quickly, given the time, in detail, the Minister of Finance has already said how much the total collection has increased. The direct collection increases by 50%, the indirect one, which includes the life-saving policies, by 32%. The contribution of the branch is important, which you see is equal to 67.1 billion. Even at the net of that contribution, however, the harvest results in an increase of about 1.5%. Looking at slide 8, we see the direct harvest, we see the impact of the branch equal to 29.4 billion. It is important to say that the harvest of the clientele is equal to 90.3 billion. and is mainly composed of current accounts and deposits. It is important to highlight that the incidence of the private sector is still increasing, which goes from 59% to 62%. The institutional cost has increased, despite the strong liquidity we have. We have issued a senior title of 500 million, among other things a social senior, at the end of March, and this with the aim of Emrel, clearly. Looking at slide number 9, which is a particularly important slide according to us, we can see in detail the contribution of the branch, which is made up of 16.6 billion of managed savings, 10.2 billion of life insurance and 11 billion of managed collection. Two aspects that we want to highlight and that are, in our opinion, very important. The incidence of the management collection and the insurance bank on the total indirect rate goes from 41% to 49%. The other important aspect is that the management saving has increased by 89% compared to the end of the year, therefore an extremely high number, but exceeded the growth of the insurance bank, of Polizia Evita. Very important is also the net growth of the net collection in the quarter, which reached 786 million, of which 610 relative to the share of the managed savings and 176 of life savings. Also April is a month that has started, that has started, has concluded very well and is the net collection on the false line of the previous months. Going to slide number 10, we see the net credits of the clientele. We have grown to 75.4 billion, with an impact of the branch net from PPA of 21.8, which are composed of 21.2 of performing credits and 600 million of deteriorated ones. We have continued to deliver in the third quarter, also deliveries supported by government measures. The deliveries have been equal to 1.9 billion. Regarding the measures of support and granted support, we move on to the next slide and we see, as the Administrator has already anticipated, that the total grants granted are equal to 16 billion, including UBI, the UBI branch. Le moratorie totali al 31 marzo sono pari a circa 8-8,1 miliardi. Come abbiamo detto, non ci sono stati particolari deterioramenti sulle moratorie non più attive. Siamo cresciuti anche sui finanziamenti garantiti dallo Stato, dove siamo passati dai 3,5 a 6,1, di cui 1,9 rappresentati dai garantiti del ramo UBI. Slide 2012, and we are talking about the quality of the credit. This is also a very important slide that testifies to the progress we have made, progress we have made both thanks to the impact of the branch and also to the sessions targeted in the first three months. As the Administrator said, we have also performed it for a session already completed in April, equal to 190 million gross book value. The data we see is 5.9% large and 3.1% net, clearly in strong decline in the 12 months from March 2020 to March 2021. The coverage remains high, close to 50%, we are at 57.8% on the suffering and 42.2% on the UTPs. As I said before, we have also increased the coverage, of the performing credits from 0.35 to 0.50, following the update of the credit risk models to which further margins of caution have been applied. Slide 13, always related to credit quality, we see a split on stage 2. We see that stage 2, which also includes the UBI data, has increased by 9.4 billion, 12.9% in total. and, as we said, we have greatly increased the coverage, which has gone from 1.9% to 2.4%. On this, I want to emphasize that at the end of December we had a very, very prudent and conservative approach. The expositions with ratings characterized by high risk or medium and belonging to the sectors most affected by the health emergency, such as restaurants, hotels, travel agencies, transport sectors, free time, etc., have been classified as stage 2 even if they did not show signs of deterioration, precisely to have a more punctual monitoring and at the same time we have increased coverage on these positions. Slide 4, credit quality, also on this clearly we see the default rate, perhaps the most important graph, 0.7%, it is clear that here we feel positively, we benefit from the effect of the governing measures of support, it is artificially low, 0.7%, but it is also, according to us, the result of the attention we have put on the delivery, on the origination of the credits. At the same time, we have positive signals on the cure rate, on the danger rate, and a particularly positive signal on the recovery rate of bad loans. Slide number 15. The financial portfolio. The stock is equal to 26.4 billion, it has grown by 1.7 billion. We are extremely liquid, so we are trying to give a return to the liquidity that otherwise would have been invested in BCE at the rate of minus 0.50 billion. Italian government titles have increased, but they have increased, let's say, in a very gradual way. Italian obligations, as evidenced by the diversification that we have always followed in our portfolio management policies, portfolio management strategies, are equal to 41% in total. The duration, since we expect a trend of raising taxes, we have lowered the duration, which was higher than 3%, years, we have dropped to 2.6, also taking into account the coverage. I'm about to close. Slide 17, let's look at the economic account. Looking at the economic account, we see what the Minister of Finance has already said, a net profit of 400.3 million, a net profit, that is, without considering the impact of the extraordinary elements, equal to 105.5 million. What are these extraordinary effects? 83.4 million are the costs related to the integration process, of which 17.5 for the personnel who followed the migration and went physically to the subsidiaries that were integrated on February 22. 65.9 million instead all the other administrative expenses and there is also the impact of the registration tax for the deal of about 11 million within the administrative expenses. We have 8.9 million more mortgages, mainly due to the change of the valuation criteria from the mortgaged cost to the real estate for the real estate, 270 million already mentioned by the Minister of the Delegation of Greater Loans on Credits, 30.5 million are for the most part referable to the adjustment of the profit-sharing quota to correspond to the resolution fund in the execution of the agreements connected to the acquisition of the new Carife Spa, dating back to 2017, 252.9 million are, let's say, composed in this way, less than 230 million for the devaluation of investments, with an impact, as you know, neutral capital, and 22 million relative to the delta-fair value linked to the change of the valuation criterion. At the end we arrive at the 781 million that we talked about before, of the provisional bedwell, which we have to add the fiscal recovery from the contract on the operation from Intesa San Paolo, equal to 296 million. As I said before, the useful lord attests to the net of the non-recurrent components at 105.5 million and we consider it a good result, taking into account that the impact of the ram we have not on the whole quarter, but on 37 days. Quickly, margin of interest, slide 18, you see that margin of interest, the data is 343.5 million, 291.7 are referred to commercial activity, 29 to the portfolio of titles, which clearly denotes a decreasing performance, we have also bought titles at a negative rate, 31.8 is the contribution of the TLTRO, as you know, at the end of March we took the residual quota to arrive at the comprehensive refinancing granted to Biper, of 1.7 billion. The average spread is in decline and the reason for the decline is not so much a commercial decline, but a decline in the portfolio of shares. A good part of our shares currently have a negative return and also from reinvestment of liquidity in BCE. The contribution of the FRS9 and FRS16 components is in strong decline, but we consider this to be a positive aspect. because we have received a significant amount of suffering. Slide 19, Commission Net, this is also a slide that we consider very important. We have reached 328.1 million, of which 138 from indirect policy of life, 190 from traditional bank business, In detail, we can see how, in line with our industrial plan objectives, the weight of the commission's voice has increased over the current revenues. We are approaching 50%. We have a strong impact, both from the industrial plan and from the commissions, from Indirette, Polizia e Vita. And the traditional banking business, however, despite the effects, and this is important to note and highlight, despite the effects of the restrictions on mobility that we have experienced in this first quarter, which we hope to overcome very soon, we see a trend of important recovery. Commissioni nette, allora l'abbiamo detto, arriviamo alla slide 20 che è la slide sulla finanza, vado velocissimo, abbiamo avuto un trimestre molto positivo soprattutto per la buona performance dei mercati azionari, delle commodities su cui abbiamo aumentato il nostro investito e anche sui derivati su tassi perché abbiamo preso una posizione rialzista. Our expectation is that the taxes have reached the minimum levels in 2020 and that we will see two phenomena, rising taxes on the long part of the curve and a higher inclination at the end of the curve of returns. The AID number 21, every operation, we have already said, we have a data of 546 million, they are not comparable with the previous trimester for two reasons, the first reason is that The perimeter has changed from February 22 onwards. The second reason is that we have all the extraordinary costs linked to integration. We also have 1.7 million of costs linked to the health emergency. We also hope that next year, in this quarter, they will be a distant memory. The cost income of the UBI branch is close to 50%. I ratify other voices on slide number 22. You see, as the Minister of Agriculture said, I do not repeat, 222 basis points, an ordinary of about 80. The contribution to the SRF is equal to 31 million because it is done on the basis of the volumes of the past, so it does not yet receive the aggregation of the branch. We have said before the impact on the provisional bedwell of the PPA process and we have talked about 296 million. Mi avvicino velocemente alla fine. Vedete la liquidità è molto ampia. Abbiamo 29,2 miliardi di counterbalancing capacity. Abbiamo 28,6 miliardi di liquidità disponibile fra liquidità ridipositate in BCE e liquidità e counterbalancing capacity libera. Sia l'LCR, l'LCR è il doppio della soglia regolamentare, superiore al 200%, l'NSFR è slide on capital, 25, the CT1 ratio fully phased is equal to 13.42, with a large buffer compared to the SREP requirements, Among the main effects, we have 180 basis points as a result of the goodwill impairment period. We have 41 basis points relative to the reserves for value-watches and to the revaluation of real estate with the change in the meteorology we talked about. We have 25 basis points because we no longer deduct DTA and we have also zeroed the shortfall. We have, let's say, an excess both on bonuses and non-performing. We have 50 basis points relative to employment activity, to the increase in employment, but also to the increase in the trading portfolio. Also, I must say, the derivatives that we have assumed to speculate on the rise in taxes. The impact of the RWA of the branch is equal to about 430 basis points. Concludo con tre messaggi. Nonostante il difficile scenario esterno, ancora fortemente influenzato dalla pandemia, i risultati del primo trimestre mostrano un aumento della redditività operativa, sostenuto dagli effetti dell'integrazione del ramo, che ha contribuito a rafforzare ulteriormente la base clienti e la posizione competitiva di Biper, come detto anche in premessa dall'amministratore delegato. Despite the completion of the integration process that has strongly occupied us, we have had a good commercial development. Clearly, the fact that the integration has been overcome allows us to focus our energies and our attention on commercial development and, at the same time, also on the efficiency of the cost base. chiaramente manterremo, come ormai è da nostra tradizione, da nostra DNA, una fortissima attenzione sul miglioramento della qualità degli asset. Questo è un percorso, un processo che continuerà. Oggi Biper è più grande, è più solida ed è pronta ad accompagnare i suoi clienti in un nuovo percorso di crescita economica del Paese. Vi ringraziamo della vostra attenzione e siamo, l'amministratore delegato ed io, a disposizione per la session di domande e risposte e anche gli altri colleghi che sono presenti. Grazie.

Qui è l'operatrice Coruscall. Cominceremo ora la sessione domande e risposte. Chiunque voglia porre una domanda digiti asterisco seguito da 1 sul proprio telefono. Per uscire dalla lista di prenotazione digitate asterisco seguito da 2. Vi preghiamo di porre le vostre domande utilizzando ricevitore. Chiunque voglia porre una domanda digiti asterisco seguito da uno ora. La prima domanda è da parte di Giovanni Razzoli di Deutsche Bank. Prego.

Good evening everyone, a couple of clarifications. First on the capital, on the CET, it seems to me that the CET is above expectations, also the guidance that you had provided us previously. I wanted to know if you could give us an outlook at the end of the year, so if this 13.4 can possibly be a level that can be maintained or even improved. Then I connect to this, because Roberto has mentioned the passage from the accounting of real estate from cost to fair value, if you can remind me, excuse me, the benefit, since there are 41, but there is also in the reserve on state titles. The last question, 260 million euros, the cost of the one-off credit for, let's say, the update of the policies, if you could give us some more clarifications on the hypothesis you have made. And then, as a last thing, I would like to wish good work to the new Deputy Administrator.

Razzoli, good evening. So, as for the CETUAN, we trust to maintain it In these levels, however, it is much higher than 13%. As for the other questions, Roberto responds.

Good evening, good afternoon. The response on real estate, the net impact from tax is 86 million on capital. As for the question about the extraordinary returns, there are several factors. We have adapted the models and we have applied very careful assumptions on economic growth, very careful. We have modified the policies on the air-cats to be applied to the real estate. We have increased the recovery time value on the sufferings. And we have, as we have seen, increased the rates on stage 2 in a fairly decisive way, taking into account also our very prudent policy of passage from stage 1 to stage 2. Perfect, thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from Adele Palamà of UBS. Please.

Yes, hello, thank you for the presentation. Some questions, the first on NIIs, I would like to know if you can give us a guidance on the evolution of NIIs in 2021 and then if it is possible to have the contribution for NIIs and fees from the branch you have acquired. The second question is about asset quality. I would like to know if you have an additional disposal of NPLs for this year and if you can give guidance on the risk rate for 2021. And then the third question always on asset quality and regarding the moratorium portfolio, if it is possible to have the split between stage 1 and stage 2 of moratorium loans. And sorry, I also add another question, if you could give us a guidance, an update of guidance on the tax rate. Thank you.

I will only answer one question. Regarding the NPL, as expected, the bank had in its forecast this year to release an additional billion. I confirm that this will be the goal of this year and we are already working on it.

Thank you.

On the margin of interest and on the evolution, let's say, of 2021, therefore post-acquisition also of the understood branch, we expect a margin of interest per quarter close to 400 million, probably even higher than 400 million, this of the combined group. e allo stesso tempo anche sulle commissioni ci aspettiamo un dato superiore ai 400 milioni per avere un dato di proventi operativi di circa 850 milioni, probabilmente sopra gli 850 milioni. Sul stage 1, stage 2, adesso elaboriamo il dato e poi ne diamo una risposta. Grazie.

I'm Simonatti, good morning. On stage 2 of the moratorium, we have in the highest rating classes, those at higher risk, we have a data that is lower than 4%, so it is very contained. We have the total prevalence of moratorium positions in the low or medium-low risk classes. Also as economic sectors, it is clear that they weigh the sectors most at risk in this period, but there is no diciamo un settore preponderante rispetto agli altri.

Posso fare un follow-up su questo? Si potrebbe avere anche il coverage sulla moderatoria? Il coverage medio?

No, questo non ve lo so dire, lo approfondiamo e poi ve lo mandiamo.

Va bene, grazie mille.

C'era un'altra richiesta sul costo del rischio 2021, cioè dei prossimi tre trimestri 2021. La nostra aspettativa è di essere nell'intorno dei 75 basis points. Il costo del rischio.

Ok. Grazie. Grazie.

La prossima domanda è da parte di Andrea Lisi di Equita. Prego.

Good evening everyone, thank you for the call. First question, I am hooked on the issue of the cost of risk for 2021, the expectation is around 75 bps, if it can be understood as core or already inclusive of any, if there are any, if there are any further extra cancellations to perhaps facilitate the accession of NPLs. And then the second question was if you had an idea of the total contribution of the Systemic Charges over the course of the year. And then we saw that in the first quarter Viper made significant one-off costs for integration. What do we have to expect for the rest of the year from this point of view?

As far as the cost of the crime is concerned, the stationary will not be affected by any other intervention. As far as the integration costs are concerned, most of the costs are concentrated in the first part of the year, so it is clear that there will be no more integration costs, I exclude them, but they will not be enough to be able to the costs that were expected. Some costs, if not more, will be for the 33 subsidiaries that will have to enter in June. But, as I said before, we talked about 5,000 employees and now we are talking about a very modest integration. I don't know the exact weight, but certainly much, much lower. The higher costs have already been sustained and those that are in forecast have already been predicted. However, much lower than those that have been in the first quarter.

Yes, the question about the contributions to the funds in total for 2021. We will reach about 110 million euros of contributions to the funds. Buonasera.

Una serie di domande di tipo diverso.

Sulle 33 filiali ex-intesa che andrete ad acquisire adesso nel secondo trimestre. Tre domande. Se ci sono degli MPLs associate a queste filiali, credo di no, ma vorrei avere conferma.

Così scompriamo subito il capo della prima.

Ok, quindi non ce ne sono. Se ci può dare l'ammontare delle masse che verranno apportate a livello di crediti and risk weighted assets, direct and indirect collection. And if, regarding this area, you record further badwill, to the net of a possible additional PPA to be accounted for. So this is the first block of questions and then I have another block.

As far as the masses are concerned, it seems to me that I have said it, perhaps I have forgotten it, those that I remember.

I have been connected five minutes late, I'm sorry.

No, 3.5 billion of direct collection, therefore managed and administrated, 1.4 billion of And we talked about 130,000 customers. This is the size of what we have. Two meters of direct, five meters of direct. Let's add that to this. Okay. Then the other one, I don't remember what it says. It's 50 million. This is for sure much smaller because it's a much smaller branch. Okay.

Then the other piece is on the contribution of UBI of the X number of days included in the quarter on three voices in the Q1. Interest margin, commissions and costs. If possible, give a managerial estimate of these three voices. And then I have another block.

The number of days I can also ask Investor Relations if it allows me to give it. Yes, yes.

Alessandro Simonazzi, now Andrea will give you the first data we have.

Hello, good morning.

So, let's say the profitability, although it is a management data, obviously, because it is not possible to go down completely, but let's say that it is equally balanced between margins and commissions and we have about between 30 and 35 million margins and 30-35 million commissions. On the commissions we have 50 and 50 between indirect and traditional commissions.

cost you have to account for a cost income on the revenues that I gave you around 52 percent between 50 and 55 and then the last block I am not interested in the guidance on the year what interests me and if you have an updated estimate, there was in the prospect, but many things have changed and now you have seen the business instead of seeing it from the outside, if you can give us an updated guidance of how much the contribution of the going concern is annually based, including the 33 branches that will arrive, per le stesse tre voci, quindi margini di interesse, commissioni e costi.

Allora, cominciamo per dire, sull'utile, intorno ai 160 milioni. Sulle voci dettagliate adesso le saremo più precise.

With everything in place, let's say, the quarter is normalized, so then you do the calculations accordingly. We are on the 250 million high part, a little less than 250 million. The costs, I told you, you have to calculate around 52%, then you have to calculate a cost of credit with the guidance we gave you before.

High part means the sum of the commission?

The commission margin. You have to do a little less than 500 million, sorry, 250 million a quarter, a little less.

Perfect, thank you. Grazie Andrea.

La prossima domanda dalla conferenza in inglese è da parte di Jean Noez di Goldman Sachs.

Prego.

Buon pomeriggio a tutti. I would also like to ask a question about the guidance regarding the UBI branch, given that in the course of the quarter there was only partial consolidation. But maybe I will reformulate my question to try to understand if the contribution of the branch that you expect, or rather, let's put it this way, the guidance that you have given us, do you expect to grow these branches or do you expect there to be conflicts at the customer base level? Can there be cannibalizations, superimpositions?

We expect them to rise. This is what I'm trying to say. of the validation channels, I would exclude them because the integration has not happened on similar or identical or close territories, on different territories, so we do not expect this. Certainly the commitment we will have will be to fully integrate a rather important asset, both in terms of the size of the patrimonial bases and in terms of the number of employees we take. From tomorrow morning Oltre i colleghi che già stanno lavorando, anch'io scenderò a parlare con queste persone, prenderò contatto con tutti i principali clienti, quindi mi dedicherò fondamentalmente a questo. Certo, lo facciamo con un auspicio di crescita e soprattutto per cercare di limitare quelli che potrebbero essere potenziali uscite, che peraltro, devo dire, fino ad oggi, è la prima cosa che ho chiesto quando sono venute, sono assolutamente irrilevanti.

Okay, thank you. The next question is from Hugo Cruz from KBW. Please. Thank you.

Thank you very much for the presentation.

First of all, could you give me a guidance for the tax rate for 2021 and 2022? And speaking of the cost of the credit, you said that for the group it will be 75 basic points. I wanted to know if this is valid for the whole year or for the nine months of residues. And then you said, it seems to me, that the annual contribution of the new perimeter, that is, the new branches, is 160 million. I wanted to know if this is in the net or in the order of the taxes, because I wanted to make a comparison with the previous guidance, which was 200 million before the taxes. And then, as far as the run rate of the NII is concerned, I wanted to have a greater idea, taking into account the operating costs, if you can.

Thank you. As far as the cost of the loan is concerned, it is in the coming quarter, so it refers to the future. As far as the data of 160 million that we have said is concerned, they are read.

On the tax rate, we expect to be between 20 and 25% in 2021 and 2022, probably closer to 25% in 2022 and closer to 20% this year.

This year will be another year where, clearly, as the Administrator said, we have some of integration costs, so the year is a bit dirty. After that, we expect, however, also through some internal rationalization, we already have a range of branches that we could potentially simplify, we expect the sign or less for next year. I don't know how to quantify it yet, because we have to do some research first, then I don't want to take away the expectation on the industrial level.

Grazie mille.

La prossima domanda dalla conferenza in italiano è da parte di Noemi Peruc di Mediobanca. Prego.

Buonasera. Un paio di domande. Allora, avete assorbito tutti i textos carry forward che avete in bilancio? So, how many forward tax laws do you plan to report in 2021 and 2022? The second one is on goodwill. What does the goodwill impairment of the quarter refer to? And then, if I go to page 12 of the presentation, I see that UBI's post-PPA MPEs have very low coverage. Do you plan to increase it in the next few quarters? And finally, I would like an update on capital impacts and regulations in 2021 and 2022, if possible.

Thank you very much.

I'll start with the last question, thank you Noemi. Regulatory impacts, that is, we do not have Edwins in 2021 and 2022. Let's say the small marginal impacts, negative impacts, are absorbed and compensated by the positive impacts of the rollout that we will also have on the group society and on the branch of credit. So, I repeat, in 2021 and 2022 we do not have negative regulatory impacts. On the Goodwill impairment, we did the impairment of the BIPER bank branch, so let's say that any improvement that we have now at the group level is quite marginal to the net of the improvement that we have on the participation in ARCA SGR, improvement that is absolutely justified by the excellent progress of the company and by the L'altra domanda era sugli NPI. Mi ero segnato. Se mi puoi ripetere la domanda sui non-performing. Sì, sui non-performing. netto è diventato un nuovo lordo, perciò abbiamo già preso dentro le vecchie coperture che avevano gli NPI di UBI. Poi abbiamo applicato il processo della PPA, per cui abbiamo applicato un nuovo ferveglio agli NPI, che è proprio il valore di disposal, di cessione di questi non performing. Pertanto abbiamo La copertura che è necessaria è una copertura a quella che abbiamo, è una copertura su cui abbiamo applicato il principio di estrema prudenza, ma in realtà gli NPI di UBI hanno già, attraverso il processo di prima la FRS3 e poi la PPA, hanno già un valore che è assolutamente un valore di ferveglio e noi cercheremo di cederli, li cederemo nel prossimo futuro e non ci aspettiamo assolutamente perdite su quegli NPI. On the DTA, out of balance, the last question, we do not have recoveries in the short term. We had 110 million and there are about 29 left, so most of them have been recovered. They are the ones that led us to do the profit sharing with the resolute entity, on the one hand, as a contract. Those of us who are out of balance do not expect recoveries in the next three or four years.

Grazie. Avrei un follow-up sul capitale. Quindi, se non sbaglio, c'erano fending i 40 bps, 35-40 bps positivi dal roll-out dei modelli sul ramo ex Unipol Banca. Quindi, mi sta dicendo che quei 40-35 bps verranno offsetati dai capital headwinds. Giusto?

So, the application of the models, at this moment, we have had further confrontations with the surveillance authorities, and considering the synergies in the process of evaluation relative to the updated instances, both of UBI and Unipol Bank, will probably be affected, and this will require a little more time, but let's say that these will compensate to go by the end of 2022 the regulatory headwinds, so we do not expect an impact.

Thank you.

We have some recovery on the ACE.

Now it's a very technical aspect, so we clearly have to come back to it, also with the consultation of our tax officer, but we have some recovery that leads us to have a slightly lower tax rate than the normalized tax rate.

And if you had to give us an idea of

As I told you, there is Andrea and then we will also be in fiscal loss, so we also have benefits from the fact that we will have a situation of fiscal loss.

How long does this situation last?

We expect this until 2022, then in 2023 we expect a tax rate that is very close to the normalized one.

The next question is from Cristian Carrese from Intermonte, please.

Good evening, welcome back Dr. Montani. I wanted to ask a couple of things. The first thing about the tax benefit of the operation at Inter San Paolo. I don't know if you have already talked about it, but I lost it, if there was this positive effect. The second question is about the quality. Dr. Montani, you have a story of, let's say, a healer, it is certainly not the case of Bipper.

It is not the case.

Exactly, it is not the case of Bipper, but I was wondering, from the point of view of the quality, if it still wants to accelerate. to close the gap compared to the larger banks in terms of large MPRash and therefore try to sell MPs even in 2021, probably also benefiting from the regulation that seems to be extended in terms of fiscal benefits on the accession of MPs in GAX. Finally, there were no questions about Thank you. As far as the fiscal benefits are concerned, they were 2.96, let's hope.

As far as future developments are concerned, we will maintain the line that the bank has already planned, both for this year and for the next. Then, of course, since we will still have to rework an industrial plan, in that area we will evaluate possible improvements. Certainly the goal is to improve the position, even though this bank has done a lot for us so far. We will have to see with great attention. As far as the market is concerned, the market is heading towards consolidation. This seems to me to be an absolutely natural thing. I am absolutely not able to make prospective evaluations of this bank now. It's been 12 days since I've been here. The first thing I have to learn is to get to know it, from my colleagues to its evolution. So we'll see what the scenario will be, certainly. I would like the main objective to be clear. For me it is very clear. We have brought in an entity of subsidiaries that for mass intermediates, for the number of employees, 5,000 people in the mass intermediates will now be explained by filo and by sign, Roberto, we now have to work on integration. We have been asked what we expect if these This is an important job. This bank, with this operation, has changed the connotations, has changed the size, has also changed the way of working, because we will certainly have to interface a series of clients and different requirements. So this is absolutely the first objective and the one we will focus on. If we then have to go to the next stage, which is to say the first phase, which is to The next question from the conference in English is a follow-up from Hugo Cruz of KBW.

Please.

Scusate, un altro follow-up sulla guidance del Capitale. Per il 2021 dovrebbe essere più o meno lo stesso livello del 2020 e poi avete parlato del headwind o dell'impatto regolamentare per il 2021. Potete darci qualche dettaglio al riguardo, per cortesia?

Grazie.

Sì, immaginavo, scusate, che... Thank you.

As we said, in 2021 we expect a capital that remains around 13.50, so at extremely high levels. In 2022, we also expect marginal impacts. However, the negative impacts on the increase in RWA are totally compensated by the positive impacts of the roll-out of Unipol Banka, di Gemini, cioè del ramo di Ubi, di Sardalising e di CR Saluzzo, pertanto nel 2022 non ci aspettiamo impatti negativi, nel 2023 vedremo gli impatti di Basilea 4, però diciamo al netto di Basilea 4 non ci aspettiamo Edwins regolamentari che non siano compensati da Tailwind.

Grazie mille.

Grazie.

Dr. Montani, Dr. Ferrari, at the moment there are no other questions.

Well, then we thank everyone, we greet, as always we remain available for any further clarifications. I personally, the structure, we are here, you can call us at any time. Thank you all and I wish you a good weekend.