Carlsberg As Shs A

Welcome to the Carlsberg's H1 2026 Interim Financial Statement. I'm Moritz, the course call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jacob Arup-Andersen, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, operator. So good morning, everyone, and welcome to Carlsberg's half-year 2026 conference call. As said, my name is Jacob Arup-Andersen, and I have with me our CFO, Ulrike Fern, and Vice President, Investor Relations, Peter Kondrup. Before we get into it, let me just begin by summarizing the key headlines for the half-year. First of all, we delivered solid top line and solid earnings growth. We are delivering the BRITBIC synergies faster than expected. We're making strong progress on leverage reduction, and we're expanding our Pepsi partnership to many more markets. And we're narrowing our full year guidance for organic operating profit growth towards the upper end of our previous guidance range. Before I cover the key headlines for the group and regions, And before Rikke takes you through the financials and the full year outlook, I will let her explain the exciting reporting changes following the implementation of IFRS 18. So over to you, Rikke.

Thank you very much, Jakob. And please, everyone, turn to slide three for that. So as we told you in February, we have implemented IFRS 18 this year, and this is ahead of the mandatory adoption in 2027. And this is a highly complex change, but we have been able to do this thanks to the robustness and the quality and the depth of our data and systems. And for those of you who are not aware, IFRS 18 concerns the presentation of figures in the income and cash flow statements and to a much lesser extent, the balance sheet. And it is important to note up front that it's at the bottom line, i.e. net profit, net cash flow and total asset is unchanged. And for us and for most other companies, IFRS 18 does not correspond with our internally defined financial performance measures and KPIs. And therefore, we're introducing Carlsberg Performance Measures, or CPMs, which reflect our internal reporting and performance management. And this is in line with the requirements of the IFRS 18. But I do want to emphasize that the CPMs basically, with a few exceptions, reflect the way we've always looked at the business. So we took the first step at this already in our full year 2025 reporting in February when we provided restated management-defined performance measures, or MPMs. However, under IFRS 18, MPMs can only be used for P&L subtotals and totals and not for line items such as cost of sales or marketing or ratios such as return on invested capital. And therefore, we're choosing to call our adjusted figures CPMs. Last week, we sent out restated 2025 figures under IFRS 18 for full year and half year. And we also included the corresponding CPM figures for both periods. So we hope that that helped you preparing for our half one announcements now. So going forward, all P&L commentary on group and regional performance in announcements and presentations will be on CPM where these differ from IFRS 18 figures. And likewise, organic growth figures will be presented for CPMs only. In today's announcement, CPM bridges are presented in Note 1, and those bridges will be included in all half and full year announcements going forward as per IFRS 18. And details on the restatement of the 2025 figures reported in February to IFRS 18 are shown in Note 8. So let me first briefly explain the major changes following the adoption of IFRS 18, illustrated in the second and third column in the table on this slide, which show 2025 reported in February and the IFRS 18 restated figures. First of all, the structures and subtotals in the P&L have changed as the P&L is now split into operating, investing and financing sections. Secondly, there are some significant movements between the lines in the P&L, with the main ones being share of profit of associates, which has moved from above operating profit to below operating profit. And special items and other operating activities, net, they no longer exist, but are instead recognized in the relevant cost lines, mainly above operating profit. And trade loans have moved from other operating activities to other investing income and expenses, which is below operating profit. And effort gains and losses on operating assets, liabilities and transactions, bank fees and other financial fees have moved from net financial items to admin costs. And as a result of the IFRS 18 mandatory reclassifications, 2025 operating profits have been restated from 13.36 billion Danish kroner to 10.23 billion Danish kroner. and the reclassifications have no impact on net results, which is unchanged at 7 billion Danish kroner, as you can see here in the table. We've also included a few lines from the cash flow statement. As with the P&L, there are a number of movements between the lines, but the most significant one is the change of interest paid on external financing. This used to be included in cash flow from operating activities, but it's now presented in the cash flow from financing activities. And this means that free cash flow under IFRS 18 improved by 1.67 billion Danish kroner, but this amount is offset in cash flow from financing activities, and net cash flow is therefore unchanged. Now, zooming in on the CPM adjustments, and these are shown in the last two columns in the table. And the main adjustments relate to share of profit in associates, which is moved back into operating profit. integration, restructuring costs and impairment losses, which used to be accounted for in special items, are eliminated in CPM, as is the amortization of intangible assets recognized in the Britfic PPA. The CPM operating profit and net financial items differ slightly from the MPMs reported in February. And the reason for this is that we have decided to align our internal reporting regarding trade loans, bank fees and other financial fees with IFRS 18 to avoid unnecessary complexity between our internal reporting and external reporting. And the net impact of these are approximately 250 million Danish kroner but have no impact on net results or EPS. Then the small difference between 2025 adjusted net result and adjusted EPS MPM reported in February and the restated net profit and EPS CPM is due to certain special items, such as war-related costs in Ukraine and donations, which has been reclassified to operating costs, and some smaller tax adjustments related to one-offs. So now on slide four, where we've included the detailed bridge for half one 2026 from note one in today's announcement, explaining the movements from IFRS 18 to CPMs. Hopefully, this bridge will enable you to understand the moving parts. And if not, IR will be more than happy to help after this call. As I've emphasized a couple of times already, the CTM figures are in accordance with our internally defined management performance measures and KPIs. And with all of that, back to you, Jakob.

Thank you very much, Ulrike. And I know a lot of people will regret this, but let's move away from the exciting world of accounting rules And let's talk about our CPM headline figures for the first six months. So let's go to slide number five. Now, total volumes were up organically by 1.7%, driven by the very solid 6% growth for our growth categories. Revenue per hectolitre developed positively in all three regions, resulting in revenue per hectolitre growth for the group of 1%. The organic volume and the revenue per hectolitre growth led to revenue being up organically by 2.7%, and us delivering revenue growth in all three regions. Operating profit was up organically by 5.9% and the operating margin expanded by 30 basis points to 15.8%, positively impacted by the synergies in BRITRIC. Slide six and a quick reminder on the composition of our portfolio following the BRITRIC acquisition. Carlsberg is today a multi-beverage company with about two-thirds of volume coming from beer products and one third from soft drinks and other non-beer beverages. Looking at it from an alcohol versus alcohol-free perspective, the ratio is one third non-alcohol, two thirds with alcohol. Not surprisingly, Western Europe has the largest share of soft drinks, with 54% of total volumes coming from this category. Including AFB, the alcohol-free portfolio accounts for almost 60% of volumes in Western Europe. and mainstream beer in Western Europe only accounts for 30%. The split is a little different in the other two regions where beer still accounts for the majority of volumes. Slide seven and an update on growth categories and international brands, all of which delivered positive growth in the first half, except for one brand, 1664 Blanc. Soft drinks delivered strong organic growth of 9% and 13% in reported terms. with growth in Western Europe and Asia being supported by the Pepsi portfolio. Very strong growth in C&I was also positively impacted by Pepsi and the volumes coming on board in Kazakhstan since we're taking over the license back in Q4 last year. Excluding Kazakhstan, organic soft drinks volume growth was 4%. Our premium beer portfolio grew by 1% as mid single-digit growth in Western Europe and C&I was partly offset by lower volumes of local premium brands in China and Q2. We saw particularly strong growth for local premium brands such as Peretti in the UK, Eriksberg in Sweden, and Perinsko in Bulgaria. Premium Carlsberg volumes grew by 16%, with strong growth seen in many markets, including China and India. And premium Tuborg volumes grew by 2%, supported by growth in China. Alcohol-free brews grew by 11%, thanks to strong growth in Western Europe of 15% and 6% in CNI. It's really encouraging to see the AFB volumes grew in almost all markets in these two regions. Albeit still a small category in Asia, we also saw strong growth in them. Calling out a few brands that did particularly well was Okuchim in Poland, Total in France and Fix in Greece. The growth was supported by a high level of innovations broadening consumer choice on occasions, like, for instance, the Yokochim 000 in Poland, the Sommerspeed 000 in Germany, and Bilt's Chill & Relax, our first functional AFB in the Swiss market. Beyond beer volumes grew by 1%, mainly due to strong growth for Garage, particularly in Poland. Innovations have been a key driver behind the growth of the Garage brand with new flavor types for Garage hardcore in Poland and Kazakhstan. Looking at the international brands, Pepsi volumes grew organically by 17%, supported by very good results in the UK, where the brand outperformed the market, and in markets such as Ireland, Sweden, Norway, and Cambodia. The strong volume growth was also supported by the volume ramp up in Kazakhstan. Carlsberg volumes grew by 6%, thanks to the aforementioned mid-teens premium volume growth. Mainstream volumes were flat. Tuporg volumes grew by 3% with positive contributions from both the premium and mainstream portfolio. The latter was primarily due to double digit growth in India. 1664 Blanc volumes grew in C&I and were flat in Western Europe, but this was offset by a decline in Asia and the total brand volumes were minus 1%. So please turn to slide number eight. We're expanding our business. strengthening our portfolio in growth categories and growth markets. Before going into details of the new Pepsi agreements, I want to highlight the strong performance of Britvic. In line with our expectations, Britvic is positively adding to the group's revenue and profit growth. And thanks to top-line growth and synergy delivery, margins and ROIC are improving. Britvic has truly been a brilliant addition to the Carlsberg Group. And we advanced our PepsiCo partnership further. In April, we announced the takeover of the Pepsi license in Denmark, including the German border trade, Finland, and the three Baltic states from the 1st of Jan, 2029. We're very excited about the long-term benefits of handling the Pepsi business across all Nordic and Baltic markets, where we have a very strong route to market and we can create a Nordic Pepsi cluster. In July, we announced the takeover of the Pepsi license in Azerbaijan from the 1st of Jan, 2027, so in only four and a half months, when the agreement with the current bottler expires. The takeover is expected to double our volumes in the market, and we're seeing appealing growth opportunities for the Pepsi portfolio when combining the beer and soft drinks portfolio. Also in July, we announced the new strategic joint venture with Sapporo in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. The partnership builds on our successful cooperation with Sapporo since 2024 in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong, where this premium brand has been growing very fast, supported by the strong provenance of Japanese brands in Asia, combined with our very strong route to market. With the agreement, we extend the partnership to Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, securing the Sapporo brand in perpetuity in all of these markets covered by the JV. We've also been granted a long term brand license for Sapporo in the UK, strengthening our portfolio in the growing premium world beer segment. Gross cash proceeds to Carlsberg will be 643 million US dollars that we will use for debt and leverage reduction. Now slide nine in Western Europe, where we saw 4% organic growth for our growth categories. Soft drinks and other beverages were up organically by 3.2%, while beer volumes declined by 3.9%. mainly due to lower mainstream beer volumes in Poland and Germany. Excluding these two markets, beer volumes grew slightly and total volumes were flat organically. Revenue per hectolitre improved organically by 1%, supported by price increases and positive mix within beer from the continued growth of premium and alcohol-free brews. Channel mix was negative due to the continued soft entree. Organic revenue growth was 0.9%, while total revenue growth was 2.7% due to the impact in January from the BritRIC acquisition. Organic operating profit growth was a solid 8.7%, supported by the synergies from BritRIC, tight cost control, and good results in Superbuck, our associate in Portugal. The operating profit contribution from acquisitions was flat, As this impact relate related to the first two weeks of January prior to perfect being consolidated from January 16th, 2025. We're very pleased with the 80 bits of margin progression supported by strong synergy delivery in Brick, which has driven a significant improvement in our UK margins. So let me give a bit of color on the markets and starting with the UK. We saw a mid single digit volume growth for soft drinks. The Pepsi portfolio did very well, particularly Pepsi and Pepsi Max, which outperformed the market, both in off-trade and in on-trade, and in volume and in value. We also saw exciting first results for Puppy, which was launched in March. Beer volumes grew by a low single digit, driven by Poretti, 1664, and the introduction of the Greek brand Myrtos. Carlsberg brand volumes declined due to competitors reformulating their recipes Shs A Total beer volumes in France and Switzerland were up, driven by premium and alcohol-free brews, partly offset by slightly lower mainstream volumes. In Poland, alcohol-free brews continued to grow. We saw strong growth for garage and beyond beer and flat premium volumes. Total volumes in Poland were impacted by the soft market and some market share loss in the lower mainstream segment. Please go to slide number 10 in Asia, where our volumes were flat for the first half reflecting beer volume development of minus 0.9% and soft drinks and other beverages grew up of 6.8%. The latter positively impacted by the growth, that impacted the growth for our growth categories of 1%. Beer volumes were impacted by a soft beer market and severe weather conditions in China specifically. Revenue per hectolitre increased organically by 2% and consequently organic revenue development was 1.7% positive. The positive revenue behavior development was supported by brand mix and by price increases. The depreciation of the Chinese currency in particular meant that the total revenue growth was flat. Operating profit grew organically by 3.0% thanks to flat cost of sales supported by funding our journey savings and prudent SG&A management. Adverse currency movements meant that operating profit CPM growth was 1.7%. Our operating margin in Asia improved by 40 basis points to 26.3%. Let's look at a couple of the markets here. In China, the beer market remains soft. In addition, our volumes in Q2, particularly in June, were severely impacted by very bad weather, including heavy rainfalls and floodings across the central and southern parts of the country. This naturally affected consumer uptake in our strongholds, especially Chongqing and several of our big cities. Shs A The strong growth was on the back of ECCOM's market growth and an increase in export volumes. Our markets here are stabilized, driven by Huda, which is our large mainstream brand in the central part of the country. Slide 11 and Central and Eastern Europe and India, where we continue to see very good performance and even an acceleration of volume growth in Q2 compared with Q1. The region delivered organic volume growth of 6.2%, mainly driven by soft drinks, which grew strongly by 34%, positively impacted by the ramp-up of the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan. Beer volumes grew by 1.1% thanks to strong growth in India and Nepal, partly offset by weak volumes in Ukraine. Revenue for Hexadilla grew organically by 3% thanks to price increases and a positive product mix, resulting in organic revenue growth of 9.2%. Total revenue was up by 5.7% due to adverse currency movements, mainly in India and Ukraine. The region delivered good organic operating profit growth of 7.8%, thanks to the strong top line and easy comps that the first half of 25 was impacted by certain one-off events. Operating margin declined by 40 basis points due to the margin dilution from the large Pepsi business in Kazakhstan, which, as you know, is not profitable in 2026. Let's also here look at a couple of the markets. In India, the very positive trajectory continued. Our business delivered mid-teens percentage volume growth in the first half with an acceleration in Q2 compared to Q1. Growth was driven by both Carlsberg and Zuborg. 1664 Blanc grew strongly from a low base as we continued to expand distribution. The work on the IPO continues and, as you may have seen, Carlsberg India in July filed a so-called pre-filed draft red herring prospectus with the Indian authorities. And before you ask additional questions, we cannot provide further comments to the India performance or the process following the filing. We also saw good growth in Nepal, where volumes were up in the mid-teens. This was due to good progress for both the local Gorkha brand and for Tuborg in Carlsberg. We're very excited by the Pepsi expansion in Kazakhstan. The construction of the new soft drinks plant is on track and we expect to start up production by the end of Q3. Total volume growth in the first half was 70%, that is seven zero percent driven by soft drinks as beer volumes were flattish. In Ukraine, the market remains severely impacted by the war and our volumes were down mid single digits as growth for premium and AFB were offset by lower mainstream volumes. Volumes in our export and license business returned to growth in Q2, led by solid growth for Carlsberg in license markets. And with that, over to you, Ulrike.

Thank you, Jakob. And now please go to slide 12 for some more details on the P&L. And for the sake of good order, please do note that my comments will be on CPM figures. So revenue amounted to 47.1 billion Danish kroner, which was up 2.7% organically, Shs A Gross profit grew organically by 1.8%, and gross margin was 45.7%, and was impacted by the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan and acquisition of Britvic. Operating profit grew organically by 5.9%, and operating margin increased by 30 base points to 15.8%. And as part of IFRS 18, net financials are now presented as investing income and expenses and financing income and expenses, respectively. And in Note 5, in the half-year statements, we provide the reconciliation of these two lines and the net amount excluding FX, which was minus 990 million Danish kroner. The effective tax rate was 22.7%, while the IFRS reported tax rate was 23%. And net profit was up 6% to 4.3 billion Danish kroner. And earnings per share were up 6% to 32.4 Danish kroner. Now to slide 13, please. So here you see free operating cash flow amounted to 3.7 billion Danish kroner. And this was an increase of 776 million, positively impacted by the higher EBITDA and a smaller working capital outflow than in half one 2025. Shs A CapEx amounted to 3.6 billion Danish kroner and included capacity expansion and sales investment linked to the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan and also capacity expansions in India and Laos. Net interest-bearing debt to EBITDA was reduced significantly from 3.9 times to 3 times, supported by solid operating free cash flow and the issuance of 1.8 billion euros of hybrid bonds in early May. And the proceeds were used to repurchase outstanding bonds under our EMTM program, maturing in October 2026 and February and June in 2027. And accounting-wise, the hybrid bonds are accounted for as equity and presented in a separate line above non-controlling interest in the state and non-financial position. However, the credit rating agencies treat only 50% as equity and the remainder as interest-bearing debt. And consequently, we use the same methodology when calculating net interest bearing debt and financial leverage. So lastly, the 12 months rolling return on invested capital improved by 20 basis points versus year end 2025 to 10.8%. And compared with half one 2025, the development was impacted by Britvic and capacity expansion in Kazakhstan. So now please go to slide 14 and the earnings outlook for the year, which we are narrowing towards the upper end of the previous expectation. In half one, we delivered solid top line and earnings growth despite the challenging and volatile environment. And for the remainder of the year, we're not assuming any material changes to the external environment or consumer sentiment. But despite this, we expect to continue our earnings growth trajectory in half two. So let me provide some color on what we have seen so far in Q3 and our assumptions per region for half two. In Western Europe, we are lapping a good July last year, but the warm weather in multiple markets again this year supported volumes during the summer. In Asia, we do not expect the soft beer market, particularly in China, to improve, and the bad weather at the end of Q2 continued in the first part of Q3. In CNI, the positive trend from half one has continued into the beginning of Q3. So we're not assuming any major changes in COGS per hectolitre outlook for the year, despite the highest spot prices on some inputs, including aluminium and energy. And as always, there will be significant variations between markets. The Britsvig integration is progressing well, and we are very pleased that we now expect to achieve approximately 80% of total synergies by the end of this year. And this is well ahead of our initial expectations and even at the highest speed than anticipated at the beginning of the year. And based on this, we're updating our earnings guidance range for 2026 and now expecting organic growth in operating profit CPM of 4% to 6% compared to the previous guidance of 2% to 6%. Please note that the 2025 operating profit CPM differs slightly from the MPM figure that was used in our guidance in late April And the difference relates to the reclassification of bank fees and trade loans that reduce operating profit but improve net financials, resulting in zero impact on net profit. Based on yesterday's spot rates, we assume no currency impacts on operating profit, and this is the same as our previous assumption. And we are lowering our expectation on net finance costs, excluding FX, to around 1.8 billion Danish kroner. And the reduction, compared to our previous expectation of 2.2 billion Danish kroner, is due to the redemption of EMTN bonds following the hybrid bond issuance in Q2 and the reclassification of bank fees and trade loans. And note that interest on the hybrid bonds do not show up in the P&L, but are presented separately in the allocation of net profit in the line called interest payments to hybrid bondholders. interest on hybrid bonds are not accrued but recognized at the time of payment and there is only one payment on one of the hybrid bonds in 2026 and that's in august our assumption for cap banks remains at six to seven billion danish krona and our assumption for tax rate is unchanged at 23 percent and with that back to you thank you very much Ulrika and it's time for q a but just before opening up for that let me let me summarize the key messages

First and foremost, we delivered solid top line and solid earnings growth. We are, as Ulrike just said, delivering the British synergies faster than expected. And we're making strong progress on leverage reduction. We've also been expanding our Pepsi partnerships to more markets. And we're narrowing our full year guidance for organic operating profit growth towards the upper end of our previous guidance range. And now to Q&A. As always, please note that we will limit the number of questions to two per person. to ensure that as many of you get a chance to get through. You're always welcome to rejoin the queue. With that, over to you, operator, and the Q&A.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questionnaires on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. And today's first question comes from Andrea Pistacci from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jakob, Ulrike and Peter. So my two questions are the following. So I'll start with China. I was hoping that you could unpack a bit more the Q2 performance in China. Do you have possibly a sense of what the severe weather impact may have been? You normally give us a split, big cities versus strongholds performance. And then the inventory situation, given the likely poor sellout in China, how has this left sort of distributor stock levels? And you already told us how sort of trading has started for Q3, which sounds still a bit soft. And my second question probably for Ulrika is on the on the guidance. So you delivered close to six percent organic EBIT in H1 and you narrowed the guidance, which implies, I think, around two to six percent for the second half. Could you talk, please, through some of the key drivers that are likely to shape the H2 relative to H1? I'm thinking on the positive side, you'll be annualizing the higher marketing spend in China. Thank you.

Thank you, Andrea. Let me start on China, and then Ulrike can speak to the guidance element. Yeah, I can give you a bit more color, of course. And unfortunately, it's impossible to separate hot and cold water in terms of what's weather impact and what's weak consumer, et cetera. But no doubt, if we look at the Q2, we look at the already soft consumer, which we've seen for quite a while, as you know, We didn't have that significant impact from from weather and I have to say it's it's it's pretty dramatic. Also, if you've been following the pictures of the events as they unfolded in June in China and into early July. And of course, that has an impact. You can say we're seeing a hit to some of our strongholds. But it's also very clear that this is not a Carlsberg thing. This is quite clearly it's a it's a market thing. We're seeing everyone being hit by this. We can't separate it. But if you look at our Strongholds versus big cities, which is also where you were asking around. So strongholds are down a bit less than mid single digit, while the big cities are flat. And it tells you something around the fact that some of our strongholds were hit harder, which is also what we were pointing to. Big cities in general, we have an underlying good growth rate. So the weather impact takes that underlying good growth rate down. And therefore, overall, you end up with the number you ended up with, We're not seeing this as any sort of step change. It's, of course, unfortunate that we have significant adverse weather across China going into a summer season where people have been building up stock for a strong summer season. This also happened a couple of years ago, and this is life. We deal with it. We don't see that as creating any longer-term structural drama. But of course, It's a short-term headwind we have to deal with, just like the rest of the players in the industry have. It's also why I have to say I'm very pleased to see the performance of the overall group, because it also shows, despite this weak impact in China, we still deliver good results across the group, and it says something around the resilience and diversification we've built up over the recent years. You asked about the start to Q3. Yeah, there's no doubt that, of course, on your question on inventories with distributors, etc., Of course, it's a given that distributors will have more inventory than initially expected because of the lack of demand, especially in on trade, because especially on trade was hit very hard. So that will have an impact in Q3 for the whole industry. So you have to expect the Q3 will be soft in China. I think that's a given. Shs A Shs A

Yes, thank you, Andrea. So on the guidance, as you said, yes, there are some, we now have visibility into the big summer months and the start of Q3, and that's allowed us to increase the guidance range up to 4% to 6%. And it is the good start in Q3 in Western Europe. It is the good start in the rest of Asia, in Laos and Vietnam, and then C&I continuing the similar trends as in half one that's allowed us to do that. As Shs A As Shs A because they had some supply chain disruptions last year, like the Italy flooding that we talked about. And then, of course, Jakob talked about the China softness as well. So those are the big moving parts in why we're moving forward to the 4% to 6%.

Got it. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Then the next question comes from Celina Panutti from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. My two questions. So first on Europe, thank you for giving us a bit of a steer on the beginning of the quarter. Could you go into a bit more details in terms of the underlying demand on beer in the key regions as well as the overall competitive performance in your key markets? And my second question may be following on what you just said on COGS inflation. Obviously, for this year, you have been hedged. How do you see the COGS inflation into 2027 and the ability to pass this on? And given the consumer environment, I'm thinking about Europe, the pricing ability. Thank you.

Céline, thanks so much. You said underlying demand of beer in different regions, but your question was specifically on Europe. Is that correct?

On Europe, yes.

Yes, okay, fine, fine. So, yeah, if you look at Western Europe, the region for us, we've had, as you also alluded to, a good start to Q3, supported by favorable weather in several markets. It's very much the similar trends we've seen in... In The First Half Across Western Europe So There Are Some Markets That Remain Tough Especially Poland Remains Tough Which Is Not A Surprise On The Other Hand We Continue To See Good Strength In The Nordic Region And Good Strength In The UK And You Are Asking Europe And Beer Markets I Would Just Underline That 55% Of Our Western European Business Is Now Soft Drinks And There We Are Seeing A Shs A The beer market continuing to be highly competitive is especially the UK. Here we see the mainstream market is highly competitive while we're seeing good growth in the world beer segment with some of the launches we've had recently. So I think it's a mixed picture. And also you have the French beer market is growing. The Portuguese beer market is growing as well. So we have two beer markets there, two important beer markets for us that are growing and where we are where we also are happy with the overall performance. You also asked about competitive, i.e., therefore, you say relative market share, etc. We are quite happy with the performance. The markets where we have slipped a bit on market share, if you look at the statistics, like Poland, that's a market where we have decided not to fully participate in everything that goes on in lower mainstream. Our focus has been on driving a significant mix improvement, and we now have the highest market Net revenue per hectolitre of any player in the Polish market, which has been a strong development by the team. So there are certain markets where we decide to do that. Overall, very happy with the performance of the teams. We're not losing any share that we're not deliberately doing. And I think it's a constructive outlook for beer. Overall, of course, the mainstream beer segment and especially lower mainstream beer segment Shs A Ulrika, do you want to answer on the COGS side of things here?

Sure, Islina. You talked about COGS for 2027 specifically. And here we do, of course, have some hedges in place already for 2027. But as you also can well see, volatility in many of the commodities are very high. And so it's very hard to say anything directly about 2027 at this point in time. As Shs A We're clearly monitoring the situation closely and we take the necessary action. We'll continue to do that into 2027, whether that's efficiencies to offset this or supply chain actions and commercial initiatives. And as per company policy, we will also have to take price increases to cover any of those cost increases should they arise. But I cannot say specifically where we are for 2027 now, but I will say that it will be an increase on 2026. But I can also say that the cost push will be significantly less than it was back in 2022, 2023.

Thank you so much.

Then the next question comes from Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Morning, Jakob, Ulrike and Peter. So two questions, please. The first is on Britvic, where you've brought forward the pace of synergy realisation from 30% to 40% to 50% this year. The question is, is that potentially more? I know you've already upgraded it once, but as you do the work, is there potentially more to go for on Britvic? And then the second is really around You know, the fact that business shape has changed quite a bit over the last couple of years. You've had obviously Britvic, you know, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, you've had Sapporo, and we've got the five new markets coming in 2029. When we think about the end game here, especially in that slide six, are we largely done, Jakob? Or if there are further opportunities, can you reshape this business without putting a lot more capital to work, e.g. taking on new Pepsi franchises or your rather smart deal with Sapporo?

Thank you so much, Ed. Quickly, we'll start with Fredrik. So you're a greedy man. We've just upgraded the synergy realization today and you already want more. It's amazing. But listen, of course, last year, as you know, we took the overall guidance from 100 to 110 million. This year, we are increasing the realization rate of that 110 million. So there's no doubt that you're pointing to the right topic, which is As Shs B The, uh, the perfect acquisition has been, uh, has been a strong success, not just in terms of the impact it's having specifically on, on our overall new, new combined, uh, UK business, but also the ripple effects it's having throughout the business in terms of capabilities, innovation, power, and in terms of, you can say the, uh, the, uh, the momentum it's giving us in terms of our overall Pepsi relationship. So I think it's having significant ripple effects that go way beyond just the cost synergies. But on the question of cost synergies, of course, we're very pleased with the upgrade today of that. And of course, the momentum is on the upside. Then on the end game, I think you can see from the level of activity coming out of us, we're not standing still. We are with high intensity constantly driving forward to create value for our shareholders. And we're super excited about the opportunities in front of us. We're super excited about the portfolio we have today. We think we have a great mix of amazing beer portfolios, amazing soft drinks portfolios, and a lot of emerging innovations within other categories such as Beyond Beer. When you look at that, we don't sit here with an end goal of a certain mix. I think that would be naive. What we are looking at is we see continued opportunities to expand within our growth categories. Part of that opportunity is Potentially to do more Pepsi partnerships. And we're not going to rule that out because we think that there I have to say I would probably be disappointed if we over the next couple of years do not add further Pepsi franchises. But it is for us always the key litmus test is are we creating value for our shareholders or not? We're not doing this because we think it's nice to do. We do this because we are here to create value for our shareholders both in the short term and the long term. You can already today see when you look at this first half As Shs A creating a portfolio mix that benefits all of our categories. As we add soft drinks into our beer markets, we see an immediate uplift of the performance of our beer portfolio as well, as you have seen in the UK. Last comment, I know it's a long answer, but it's an important topic. You said capital allocation and capital usage. We are very disciplined around how we use capital. And so if we are deploying any capital in these partnerships, We do that with a strong return in mind. But we've also said very clearly that we do not have anything on the horizon, the size of Pritik or anything like that. We're very disciplined about the use of capital. If any of these partnerships with, as an example, Pepsi, if they involve capital, it's purely as a replacement for the organic capex we would have to do anyway ourselves. So we look at that in a very disciplined fashion around creating returns for our shareholders. Thanks, Ed. Thank you.

Then the next question comes from Simon Hales from Citi. Please go ahead.

Simon Hales Thank you. My first one is, can I just come back to China and just help me understand Shs A And then my second question was going back to the Western European performance. Could you talk a little bit about sort of the volume momentum as we exit the quarter came into July? I'm just trying to understand how much of a weather benefit we've perhaps seen in both the soft drinks and the beer business given that the whole of Q2 was also impacted by things like Poland and the Easter unwind effect. And just associated with that, can you actually quantify, I may have missed this, but can you quantify how big the BRICS synergies were in H1 itself? You've given us a full year guide, but I'm not sure you've given us what you actually delivered in H1.

Hi, Simon. I think you actually sneaked in three questions, but due to the long relationship with Peter Convert, we're going to be allowing it, but no one else should get any good ideas, Sam. On China's second half, we're not going to give you a specific number in terms of what to put into your model. Well, first of all, as you know, Chongqing is a listed company, and we're not going to sit here and give specific guidance for the second half. We're not even allowed to do that. But we are making it very clear that Ulrike has told you that we're increasing our confidence and our guidance and going to the high end of the previous range. And we're doing that with full open eyes around the fact that the second half will also be soft in China. And that should give you a significant confidence of the strength of the business and the earnings power right now of Carlsberg. So we're very pleased with that. But we don't have any heroic assumptions around China in the second half. As you know, Q3 is a big quarter, but Q4 is actually quite a small quarter. And given what we said and what we're seeing also in the competitive landscape and what we're seeing from all of our peers, we think it's going to be a soft second half quarter. which would be a negative number, but we're not going to speculate on the exact size of that number. But that is already in the guidance, and we do not lift the guidance range randomly. We do that when we have a lot of confidence that we deliver. So as I said earlier, this is a temporary impact. That cyclicality will be out of the numbers again in a couple of quarters, and then we move on. So we're not particularly seeing any drama here. You asked about July and Western Europe and how much is weather impact. I would love to be able to separate weather impacts from underlying businesses. Weather is an element. Do remember, we're saying that we had a good start to Q3 in Western Europe. And this is despite actually having tough comps from last year. Weather in Western Europe in July last year was also strong. So from that perspective, I think that's the best indication that The portfolio itself is doing well because we're not lapping an easy July. We're actually lapping a tough July. And despite that, we're quite pleased with what we're seeing. Of course, then you have all the specifics of different markets. That's fine. As I indicated before to, I think it was Celine, we're not seeing as an example of Poland suddenly recovering, etc. So you have the same trends continuing. But overall, we were quite constructive on the Western European performance. Part of that is also that we see our soft drinks portfolio, which is now the majority of our portfolio. We're seeing that continuing to power ahead. On the BritVic synergies, we're not going to quantify H1 versus H2. We haven't done that in the guidance and we're not going to start doing it here. But as you would expect, a lot of the realization happens for it to be in the full year numbers. A lot of the realization will have had to happen in the beginning of the first half. So therefore, you would expect a bit more in the second half versus first half. That's a given given the annualization impact of that. So so a bit more in the second half than first half, which would be the mathematical conclusion. But we're not going to give you an exact split. It's not a dramatic difference between the two halves.

Brilliant. Thanks so much. Cheeky three. Thank you.

Then the next question comes from Sanjit from UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi, Jacob, Ulrike, Peter. I'll stick to two. Firstly, coming back to Britvic, 18 months into the transaction now, can you just speak a little bit more about the revenue synergy side of things between beer and soft drinks? And I say that in the context of what seems to be your UK beer volumes probably slightly declining in Q2. And then just coming back to China Again, you've spoken about whether we consumer can you touch upon the competitive landscape? And I I say that in the context of the largest brewer China resources, I think reporting volume growth in in h1 of around 2% Thanks Thanks indeed just starting on the UK and

So if you look at the overall synergies in the UK on the revenue side, we're quite happy with what we're seeing. You're right that we saw a bit more pressure on the beer portfolio towards the end of the first half. And I think that's specifically driven by one thing that's happening around, say, the mainstream brands of Carlsberg, which I also alluded to in my initial comments, which is driven by the fact that we've seen... The other players go now also reformulating the recipes to a lower APV and therefore getting a different exercise regime that has upped the pressure, the competitive pressure around this. And I think we're just being very careful that we are not just blindly following other people, but making sure that we're also running a profitable business. I shouldn't comment on the behaviors of other competitors, but we are focusing on at least driving a sensible business. business within that category. If you look at the outside of that, we're seeing very nice growth in our other beer, in the other categories within beer and also within brands. Very nice growth in both 1664, Poretti, Mythos is off to a great start with the sole launch we did with one banner. So very, very pleased with that. We're now going to expand that further to other banners. And overall, part of that, what we're seeing is that we're seeing the positive impact in off-trade of having the strength of the combined portfolio, which also gives a significant, a stronger impetus in terms of being able to launch new brands, in terms of getting more sales space for existing world beer brands, et cetera, et cetera. So, no, we're very happy with what we're seeing. I don't think, as an example, we could have done the very successful launch of Mütter's Shs A Shs A Shs A Shs A Say That Because There Is A Significant Shift From A Couple Players Around The Lower Mainstream Segment That That Means That We're Not Suddenly Seeing Revenue Synergies We Are Seeing Revenue Synergies We're Very Pleased With That And Say The Off Trade Volumes And The Overall Growth Of Brickwick Is Casper Brickwick In The UK Is A Testament To That We're Growing Faster Than Our Peers In The UK In Total Then On China You Know We're Aware Of China Resources Performance And We could also highlight other players that have worse growth than us in China, but China resources have done well in recent quarters. No doubt about that. I think they're both there. If you look at their exposure where they have their strongholds, but also that portfolio has catered a little bit better to some of the consumer trends recently. So well played to them. We don't see this as a structural difference as such. We are being hit weather-wise significantly in a couple of our strongholds. And given that we are a smaller player than China Resources, it will just have a more disproportional impact on us. We are not in the same way a full national player like they are. And therefore, we don't have that diversification. So if a couple of our big strongholds get hit hard by weather, it will, of course, impact our portfolio significantly. Disproportionately More Than It Would For Someone Who Is In All Cities In All Regions Across The Market So Nothing There Listen China Resources Sees Strong Growth With The Heineken Brand In Premium I Think 20% Plus As I Recall It We Are With Carlsberg In China We Are Seeing More Than 20% Growth So I Think We Are Seeing The Same Growth In These Premium Segments So This Is A Weather Impact That We See We are quite relaxed around, I have to say.

Great, thank you.

Then the next question comes from Richard Witthagen from Kepler-Chevreux. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jacob, Ulrike and Pieter. Two questions from me. First of all, a bit more on the UK soft drinks side. You still have a very strong performance, again, for the Pepsi portfolio. So what drivers remain really in 2026? Is it driven more by distribution expansion or is it increasing velocity or do innovations play a specific role for the portfolio? So that's my first question. And then the second question is, if you look at group level, the operating expenses declined organically by about 1%. Now, we obviously have the BRITVIC synergies, but besides this, how much further structural cost opportunity remains, particularly you know, after after Britfig, but also some efficiency initiatives that you that you took in the last couple of years.

Thanks, Richard. Let me talk to soft drinks in the UK and then Ulrike can talk to the OPEX. Listen, the growth we're seeing is very broad based. And it's also driven by the fact that the market is growing, especially off trade is growing. So soft drinks is a growing category. So that's the starting point. So We don't have to take significant share to grow the soft drinks. It's a growing category. We have been taking share, especially in the important cola segment. Looking at the numbers, if I look at the first half, Pepsi Max took value share of 1.9% and volume share of 1.1%, which also is a testament to the fact that this is not price-led growth. It's actually the contrary. So we're managing to drive strong value growth as well. If you look across our CSD growth in the UK, of course, we've talked about Pepsi, but we're also seeing a flavored CSD, a good performance for 7up. We're not super happy with the Tango performance, but we have recently relaunched with a new visual identity and strong ads, and we're quite excited about how that will play out in the second half. And then we had a very successful launch of Puppy, And that is now going to be listed at new customers, both on trade and off trade. Today, you're going to see distribution expansion. And we're still winning new customers. Recently, we gained Starbucks, which is an important win as well. So there's a lot of good momentum around distribution expansion still within soft drinks and then innovation. So if you look across our major brands within soft drinks, there's innovation going into all of them. Also, Pepsi. Pepsi Treats keeps on also innovating. And I think that's a key element as well of the software portfolio. There is so much innovation going into it. Also limited launches, limited editions all the time within brands like Tango, J2O, Robinsons, etc. So it's distribution expansion and innovation and then underlying market growth. Ulrike, on the OPEX?

On the OPEX, yes. good observation. And yes, it is absolutely partly driven by the British synergies. But I will also say that it is, as you also mentioned, driven by we took some restructuring and some cost programs through in 2023, and they're starting to pay off. The question was, do you do we continue? Yes, we do. We will continue to drive that OPEX ratio to stay the same or go down going forward. And that comes from Shs A

Otherwise, it's very long synonyms.

It is very long synonyms, absolutely.

Yeah, that's fine. All right, thank you so much, Richard.

Thank you both.

Thank you. Then the next question comes from Gen Cross from BNB Paribas. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jakob, Ulrike, and Peter. Thank you. A couple of questions from me. The first one's actually on Brazil. I think you commented on return to growth and profitability and cash generation improving there. If I'm not mistaken, I think the CMD, less than a year ago, talked about that business being reviewed. So I just wonder if that review is still ongoing and what the latest is. And then the second question is on Vietnam. Obviously, volume grew very strong in the first half on the back of EZ.com. So I think you commented on market share stabilization. So I just wondered if you could give us a bit more color on that. on that market share development and that also just looking longer term the potential of adding this for a brand. Thank you.

Thank you so much. Again, let me let me speak to Vietnam. I think Ulrike will speak to to to Brazil. Yes, a bit of color on Vietnam. So so first of all, if you look at it, we have a market that if you look at the official statistics is growing mid single digit. Shs A We did a significant restructuring of our route to market where we reorganized our distribution network, our outlet universe, because we felt we needed to have a more high quality and resilient route to market for the future. That work has been done. It's basically done. There are some places where we're still doing some changes, but it's very nice to see that the underlying growth is back. The team is doing very well in terms of also seeing A good growth in number of products sold per outlet, good momentum around the core brands, and good brand equity strength, especially around the Huda brand, which is the anchor of our performance in Vietnam. We're then selectively building out the international premium brands, both Blanc and especially Blanc, 1664 Blanc and Tupac. But we're making sure that we're doing this in a creative and responsible way. So The focus of the team is to continue the good momentum they built over the last nine to 12 months. As you know, the momentum improved already from the middle of last year, but we then had a setback in Q4 due to the significant typhoons in the center of Vietnam. But good growth. I'm very happy to see the team performing there. Overall, the market itself is constructive. You will have seen that also from A certain major competitor that they're also talking constructively around the underlying market. So the consumer is back in the beer market. And that structural growth rate also, of course, helps all of us. So we're constructive around Vietnam. We expect the second half to also be positive growth in Vietnam. So we'll be capping a good year, 26 in Vietnam and are very constructive on the coming years there. Ulrike, do you want to talk to Brazil?

Yes, I can do. Hi, Jen. You're absolutely right. We did take some steps to improve the financial performance of the business. And we mentioned that as we did it, we exited some of the non-profitable contracts and SKUs and had a big push on cost reductions. So yes, we've gotten to a place where we are now getting a much more profitable entity and cash generating. And we're seeing now a good half one with mid single volume growth in half one with that better profitability and cash flow coming through. At the same time, we are continuing to review the strategic journey and the way forward for the business. And we're in the middle of that as we speak.

Thank you very much. And I'm being alerted that we have time for one more question.

Then the next question comes from Mitch Collette from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jakob. Morning, Ulrike. I'll stick to two. Firstly, I know this is probably linked in part to Britvic, but sales and marketing expenses were down 60 basis points as a percentage of sales. Can you give a bit of colour on how that's divided between sales expense and also marketing expense? And I guess, are you investing in your brands appropriately? And then can you just give a bit more colour on on the support of JB and how you think that's going to benefit your business is in Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, and also the UK.

Thank you. Thanks, Mitch. Let me talk to support and then Ulrike can talk to the SG&A. So yeah, that isn't the first of all, we're super excited about it. It's, as you know, we went out two years, we have 22 years of experience of working with support in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong, where We have been very positively surprised by the strength of that brand, the ease of which it's been taking a share in the combination with what is a very strong route to market from our side. So there's definitely, it's a premium to super premium brand that has very strong consumer attraction and not just the Japanese provenance, but Sapporo in itself really has some very strong brand equity cues that resonates very well with consumers. So Very happy with that. And that's also what then led to the further conversation, because, of course, we both parties could see that there was there was something very, very long term significant here in the way that we were operating together. So it's a natural extension for us to to increase this partnership to more markets. We do expect over the coming years that we will both be able to introduce through our distribution channels the support brand in a meaningful way. As Shs A to believe that we shouldn't be able to do the same journey as we've done in Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the other Asian markets based on all the consumer work we've done. And then bringing it to the UK as well, we think Sapporo in Europe can play a significant impact longer term for the premium portfolio. Japanese provenance is also really something that has strong traction. It's had a level of traction for a while, but we're seeing an accelerating traction for that. And And the support brand, we think there is so much more potential in the UK than what has been realized so far. It will now be exclusive long-term, and therefore we can also build it in the right way in the UK in a market where the consumer is also very focused on world beer brands. We think now with the combined strength of the Newcastle Pacific business, we also have a much stronger machine behind building that brand. And of course, it's no secret that if we see that success in the UK... You should not be surprised to start seeing support in more European markets. But for now, let's get UK off to a good start. So a strong addition to the premium portfolio, especially driving net revenue per hectolitre, and then volume growth will come gradually, which is something we're looking forward to. Ulrike, do you want to talk to Mitch's question on STNA?

Yeah, I think, Mitch, it was sales and marketing you referred to. And yes, you're absolutely right. There are some of the effectiveness coming through from Britvig into those lines. So you will see some improvements in terms of how we spend on those two lines within that. But I will also say that there is a bit of facing here between half one and half two. So it's not all the trend. We have still not spent July and August when you look at the half one numbers. So there is a little bit of facing in it as well.

And I think that's as far as we go on that. Thank you both. Thank you.

All right. I think that basically concludes final question of today. Thanks for listening in and thank you for all of your questions. We're going to see a lot of you over the coming days and weeks. So looking forward to that, of course. And until then, have a nice day. Thank you.