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Carlsberg As Shs A
10/29/2026
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Carlsberg Q3 2026 Trading Statement conference call. I am Heli, the chorus call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jakob Arup Andersen, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Carlsberg's Q3 2026 conference call. As said, my name is Jakob Arup Andersen, and I have with me our CFO, Ulrica Fearn, and our Vice President, Investor Relations, Peter Kondrup. As always, let me just start with a couple of headlines for the quarter. First and foremost, we delivered robust revenue growth. Our growth categories continued to outperform, and we expanded our partnership with PepsiCo into additional markets. And we confirm our earnings guidance for the year. I'm going to provide the key group headlines for the quarter, and then Ulrica will take you through the regions and the full outlook. So let's turn to slide number three and look at the Q3 figures for the group. Volumes increased slightly in the quarter, driven by a 5% increase for our growth categories, in particular soft drinks in the UK, soft drinks in Kazakhstan, and strong growth in beer in South Asia and Laos, partly offset by lower beer volumes in China and the UK. The continued progress in the growth categories led to their share of total volumes increasing to 52% year to date September, compared with 51% for full year 25. Mainstream beer in Western Europe, where the category faces particular pressure, now only accounts for 12% of our total volumes. In line with our commitment to drive sustainable, profitable growth, revenue per hectolitre increased by 3%. All three regions contributed to this positive value-driven development, balancing volume and value in all markets. Together, this resulted in organic revenue growth of 3%. Currency movements had a positive impact in all three regions, contributing 1.8% overall, and that means our reported revenue grew by 4.9%. Turning to slide four, let me give you a few more details on our growth categories and our international brands. Softdrinks grew strongly. Volumes were up 9%. Growth came from the UK, the Nordics, and Laos, as well as the continued ramp-up of the Pepsi business in Kazakhstan. Premium beer saw broad-based growth in Western Europe and C&I, while volumes in Asia were impacted by bad weather and continued subdued consumer sentiment in China. Excluding China, premium volumes grew by mid-single digits, compared with a 3% decline overall. Total alcohol-free brews grew strongly by 11%, with volumes in Western Europe up 15% and mid-single digits in C&I. We're very pleased to see the resilience of AFB. The category is becoming firmly established in more markets, and we saw volume growth in almost all markets in the two regions. Beyond beer grew by 3%, driven by another quarter of double-digit growth for garage in Poland and Kazakhstan. Now then, turning to our international brands. Pepsi volumes grew by 18%. Alongside the ramp-up in Kazakhstan, we saw very good growth in the UK, Ireland, Sweden, and Laos. Carlsberg volumes grew by 3%. Premium Carlsberg volumes increased by 20%, thanks to the very strong growth in South Asia and in China. While mainstream Carlsberg volumes were impacted by tough competition in the low ABV Mainstream segment in the UK. Tuborg volumes were flat overall, excluding China, volumes increased by 4%, with very strong growth in South Asia. 1664 Blanc volumes grew in many markets across Western and Central and Eastern Europe. However, lower volumes in China and certain export and license markets weighed on the total volumes. So please turn to slide number five. We continue to expand our PepsiCo partnership, strengthening our soft drinks exposure and multi-beverage portfolio. With the agreement signed over the past two years or so, our PepsiCo bottling footprint will expand to 17 markets by 1st of Jan 29, compared with five markets in 2024. That's a significant expansion, creating a multi-beverage resilience and consistent growth in our total portfolio. Let me give you more color on Kazakhstan and the agreements which we've entered into this year. In Kazakhstan, the new soft drinks facility is now up and running. We expect to complete the insourcing of all the Pepsi volumes by the end of the year. And as a result, we expect a solid profit improvement in 2027. In the Nordics and Baltics, we will create a full Nordic hub from 1st of Jan, 29, when we add Denmark, Finland, and the three Baltic states to our existing Pepsi businesses in Norway and Sweden. We're also creating a South Caucasus hub, taking over the Pepsi license in Azerbaijan from 1st of Jan 27, and acquiring the bottling businesses in Georgia and Armenia. Those two markets will join our footprint upon deal completion. And now, over to Ulrica for the regional performance and earnings guidance.
Thank you, Jakob, and good morning, everyone. So please turn to slide six and Western Europe, where total volumes grew organically and in reported terms by 0.3%. And while we had good weather, there was limited year-on-year impact from this, as weather was also good last year. We saw good progress from growth categories, which were up 4%, and all growth categories contributed to this increase, which more than offset lower mainstream beer volumes. The mainstream beer decline reflected soft development, particularly in the UK, Poland, and Germany. Revenue per hectolitre increased by 2%, supported by a positive category and country mix. An organic revenue grew by 2.5%, and reported revenue growth was 3.7%, and this was due to positive currency impact of 1.2%, mainly related to the British and Norwegian currencies. Now looking at the markets, and the UK delivered solid volume growth, supported by mid-single-digit growth in soft drinks and market share gains in both volume and value. And the Pepsi franchise performed very well, particularly Pepsi Max and 7-Up. And we're extremely satisfied that Pepsi Max is now the largest cola variant in the UK market. The poppy launch has exceeded our expectations and landing very well in the market and in world beer. We saw good growth, particularly for Peretti and successful launches of Mythos and Sapporo, while the Carlsberg brand declined in the mainstream category, and that remains under pressure. Total volumes in Nordics grew. We saw particularly good growth for the growth categories in Sweden and Denmark. Volumes in France were slightly up, and that was driven by high teens' growth for AFB and growth for brands such as 1664, Brooklyn, and Anasteki. The volume decline in Poland moderated in Q3, and that was supported by easy comparables. And in line with our value strategy in Poland, we saw strong growth in the AFB and beyond beer portfolios, as well as growth in premium beer. So now turning to Asia on slide seven. Total volumes and our growth categories were impacted by the weak Chinese market and destocking following severe rainfalls during the peak seasons. Excluding China, regional volumes grew by 1%. Revenue per hectolitre was up 2%, benefiting from price increases, category and country mix. And consequently, organic revenue declined by 4.6%. And thanks to the positive currency impact, mainly from China, reported revenue grew by 1%. So a few words on China. Year to date, our volumes were down by 5%, in line with the market. As already said, volumes in Q3 were weak and declined almost 10%, reflecting a continued subdued consumer sentiment, bad weather in July and August, and subsequent destocking. And the on-trade remained soft, while we continued to see growth in other channels, such as e-commerce, modern off-trade, and with particularly strong growth in our one-litre cans. And the key growth drivers, big cities and premium beer, continued to outperform strongholds and mainstreams. and we saw particularly good performance of the Carlsberg brand, which grew by 15%. In Laos, our volumes grew by high single digits. Growth was particularly strong for soft drinks, being in the low teens, whilst beer volume growth was low single digits. And our business in Vietnam delivered mid-single digit growth, supported by an increase in export volume, and we estimate that our market share was flat. So now slide 8 and C and I, which delivered another strong set of figures in Q3. Volumes grew organically by 7.5%, with our growth categories up 22%. Revenue per hectolitre increased by 4%, bringing organic revenue growth to 11.7%, and reported revenue grew by 12%. Revenue per hectolitre was positively impacted by price increases and a positive mix in beer, And then partly offset by category mix due to the strong growth of soft drinks in Kazakhstan. And then in South Asia, volumes grew strongly in the mid-20s, driven by very strong progress for Carlsberg and Tuborg and the local power brand Gorka in Nepal. And revenue per hectolitre increased due to premium growth and a positive geographical mix. In Kazakhstan, volumes almost doubled, supported by the addition of the Pepsi business. and we opened the new soft drinks facility in early October and are now ramping up our production. And this is the group's first greenfield CSD facility built in record time, just 15 months from project start to completion. So we expect to produce all Pepsi volumes in-house by the end of the year. And we also see good growth for alcohol-free brews led by Setecki and Carlsberg and for garage in the beyond beer segment. Our business in Ukraine delivered only modest decline in Q3 on the back of easy comps and our colleagues there are operating in an extremely difficult environment and their safety of course remains our first priority. Now please go to slide nine and the earnings outlook for the year. Overall the development in Q3 was largely in line with our expectations and for the remainder of the year we're not assuming any material changes to the external environment and in August we updated our full year earnings expectations to the upper end of the previous range and based on the Q3 performance we maintained the outlook of organic growth in operating profit CPM of 4-6% and based on yesterday's spot rates we now assume a positive FX impact on operating profit of 100 million Danish kroner and this compares with the previous expectation in August of no impacts All other assumptions are unchanged. Net financial expenses, excluding FX, are expected at 1.8 billion Danish kroner, reported tax rate at 23%, and capex of 6 to 7 billion. Before handing back to Jakob, let me provide some color on our leverage reduction and our refinancing needs. As said at the time of the Breitvig acquisition, we target the net debt to EBITDA below two and a half times before the end of 2027. and also as reported in half one, we took significant steps towards this in the first six months. We expect the Sapporo transaction to close in Q4 and along with solid cash flow delivery in half two, we will be close to our leverage target already by the end of 2026. And this is excluding any proceeds from other large structural changes such as the potential India IPO. and an updated draft hearing prospectus was filed with the Securities and Exchange Board of India on October the 28th. And it is available on their website and on Carlsberg's India website. And this is of course part of the ongoing IPO process. At this point, we are though unable to comment further on the outcome or timing on such a potential IPO and this is due to regulatory requirements. However, as it is customary in such a process, We are now engaging follow-on activities, including setting up interactions with potential investors. So turning to our refinancing needs, which were very modest until 2029, following the issuance of the hybrid bonds in May and the subsequent bond repurchases. The hybrid bonds have not only supported our deleveraging, the timing was also good. And given the recent increase in interest rates, refinancing with senior bonds today would come at almost the same price. So with that, over to you, Jokko.
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