Cemetir Holding

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Chairman Holding Full Year 2022 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, Head of MA Investor Relations of Cementir Holding. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good afternoon, good morning, and welcome to Cementir Holding Preliminary 2022 Results and Industrial Plan Update Conference Call. I'm here with Francesco Caltagirone, our Chairman and Chief Executive. Good afternoon. So I'm gonna go through 12 slides presentation which has been distributed and then I will leave the floor to any question you may have to our chairman and chief executive. Starting with the slide number three with the highlights. As you know from June 22, Turkey is considered hyperinflationary and therefore results as of December 31st, 2022 are prepared according to IAS 29 accounting principle. Revenues for the year reached a record of 1.7 billion euro, up 27% year-on-year. Excluding YAS 29, the number is up 26.5%, driven mainly by price increases. Overall, volumes were slightly down for the year, around 2.7% in cement, around 5.8% in RMC, and around 5.3% in aggregates. EBITDA again reached a record level of €335.2 million, up 7.8% year-over-year, excluding IAS 29. EBITDA was €355 million, up 14.2%, including €17.8 million of one-off positive impact. There was a higher EBITDA in main regions, namely Denmark, Belgium, Turkey, US and Egypt, and a lower EBITDA in Asia-Pacific and Sweden. EBIT reached €206.3 million, up 4.3% year-over-year, excluding ES29, was actually up 19.1%, to €235.6 million. Profit before tax reached €238.3 million, up 38.5%, excluding ES29. In fact, it would have been up 43.9%, to €247.6 million. Net cash position reached 95.5 million euros from a net debt position of 40.4 million euro as of December 31st 2021. This means that the company has generated around 136 million euro free cash flow year on year including IFRS 16 impact and 28 million euro of dividend distribution. Turning over the page to our guidance A necessary note of caution. Clearly, this guidance does not entail any COVID-19 crisis or further geopolitical tension and is given excluding IAS 29 and any extraordinary items. We expect for 2023 to reach, to actually exceed 1.8 billion euros of revenues. to reach an EBITDA in the range between €335 and €345 million, to exceed €200 million of net cash position, and a CAPEX of around €113 million. Going to the next slide, just a few highlights about our 2325 industrial plan update. On page 6, you can see that our strategy is unchanged. We keep aiming at a sustainable growth strategy to create value for all shareholders, which is based on five main pillars. One is sustainability, with 86 million euro roughly of sustainability capex over the period. We want to deliver on our carbon reduction target, which I will detail in a second. We want to keep leveraging on our state-of-the-art technology, FutureSAM, We want to push towards product and value chain circularity, and we're also exploring and implementing carbon capture technology in Denmark. The second pillar is innovation. I just mentioned future technology, but we're also launching a range of new high added value solutions to our in-wife solution platform. The third pillar is competitiveness. We want to keep improving our profitability, operational efficiency and digitalization drive that spans from lean manufacturing and logistics to e-procurement, smart maintenance and integrated digital sales. In terms of growth and positioning, we want to keep optimizing our industrial footprints. We want to keep our wide leadership on a global basis. We want to reinforce our vertical integrated platform, namely in the Nordics, in Belgium and in Turkey. We want to further develop our trading business and be selective and opportunistic in any M&A in the core business. Last but not least, people and organizations. We have implemented zero-accident policies throughout the organization. We are heavily investing in developing human capital. We have a leadership program and a talent management program and succession plan ongoing. Moving to the next couple of slides on sustainability, you can see on page seven that we keep our net zero ambition by 2050. But looking at the medium term to 2030, we have actually upgraded our targets of carbon emissions reduction. which go beyond what are the limits of the European taxonomy. The new limits, the new targets that we've planned for grey cement are 460 kg of CO2 per ton of cement, which is minus 36% from 718, and for white cement to reach 738 kg of CO2 per ton from 915, which is a 19% reduction. The previous roadmap was contemplating a 25% reduction in scope 1 and scope 2 emissions. Those targets are validated by science-based target initiatives. As far as the industrial plan, we are clearly putting a yearly reduction, CO2 reduction target by plant, and we are also embedding the targets of ESG and carbon reduction into our short-term and long-term incentive plan. Slide number eight, just to visualize the reduction targets for both gray and white cement, which I've just mentioned. You can see that this is also achieved through a reduction in clinker ratio, which you can see at the bottom of both tables. The clinker ratio goes from 82 to 64% in gray cement and from 82 to 78% in white cement. Moving to the next page of page number nine, just to highlight that this decarbonization drive, it really is implemented across the value chain of the organization, starting from raw materials where we are using more and more constantly in our production process, the use of fly ash and limestone and other cementitious products, the increase of circularity, of materials and process with recycling, which are very, very important. But also, energy is clearly a key factor in our process. We are switching to natural gas and biomass in Aalborg from 2025. We are increasing significantly the alternative fuels usage. We're pointing to district heating and green power to further lower the carbon footprint. As far as production, we are upgrading our plants. We are also reducing, as you've seen, a clean-car ratio in our cements. We are investing in clean heat consumption reduction and waste heat recovery gear. And we're also using more and more predictive maintenance. As far as logistics, which is a big part of our value chain, we're increasingly using hybrid trucks. We are also optimizing networks and routes and using e-procurement more and more. Clearly, these are on the overriding theme of the future STEM technology and the use of carbon capture technology in our organization. Going to the details and the figures on page 10, you can see here on the right-hand side the breakdown of maintenance and expansion capex year by year and also the sustainability capex. You can see that the cumulative amount we're going to spend in the year in the plan is 86 million of investment. The main initiatives are a kiln upgrade in Goran in Belgium, the introduction of natural gas in Aalborg, facility upgrades for future SEM in Aalborg, waste heat recovery in Turkey, and also alternative fuels in Izmir, and ongoing digitalization of main processes. Moving to the last couple of slides, page 11. You can see here the financial targets of our industrial plan, starting on the left-hand side from the 2022 actual results ex-YAS 29 and ex-non-recording items. You can see that the target by 2025 is to grow sales between 5% and 6% to a target of around 2 billion euros and to grow EBITDA faster by around 6% compounded. from 337 to around 400 million euro by 2025. The EBITDA margin is broadly unchanged, around 19.3%, and the average yearly capex, including sustainability capex, is around 110 million euro. The target is then to reach around 500 actually exceeds 500 million euro of net cash by the end of 2025. That means a cumulative free cash flow generation of around 400 million euro, assuming a dividend payout ratio between 20% and 25%, so a growing dividend as well. And in comparison with the previous plan on page 12, to finish my presentation, as you can see, we have a slight decline in the compounded growth rate of sales. But on the opposite side, an acceleration EBITDA growth from 5.3% to 5.9% in the new plan. And yearly capex is broadly unchanged. And clearly, there is a higher net cash position at the end of the plan. So continued significant cash generation and dependable growth trajectory. Thank you for your attention. I then turn it over to Mr. Catagirone for any questions you may have. Thank you.

good afternoon before starting the question section I would like to add something as you probably have seen we have more or less reached this year the result of our industrial plan of 2024 so with two years in advance except for the net cash position because It was, let me say, the sum of three years was slightly impossible. We have reached, anyway, a net cash position that is better nearly 50% than what forecasted for this year. We have in our plan considered, I mean, in the new plan, 23 to 25% an average cost of the CO2 of around 80 euro, and a lack, an average lack per year of around 300,000 tons. And what I can say now, from now, is that with this cash, besides a natural increase of the dividend that I expect, for example, for the 2022 should be the General Assembly, as you know, that should approve, but probably we can expect to increase nearly 20% from what we distributed on 2021. And we are starting to see, let me see, opportunity in invest the money to decrease the energy intensity of our, let me say, group of special cement in Europe and outside. As I said various times before, it is difficult today with this huge volatility of price in energy, of electricity and also in coal price. The world and also the price of CO2 and the technology that today is not proven for carbon capture to make a sort of effective acquisition policy for the medium-long term. If you consider that in 2019 our energy cost, both electricity and solid fuel, was around 190 million. And this year is expected above, well above, 400 million. You understand that probably some investment that two or three years ago weren't, let me say, affordable in terms of return on investment now becomes very interesting in this, let me say, with this point of view. And so, let's say that if we are able with our investment to decrease the energy intensity Besides the fluctuation and the volatility of the price, I think that we can expect to have a higher return on investment with less cash out. So I expect that probably, and in part, it is part of the growth of the profitability of this plan, is the fact that we can reduce probably several millions or ten of millions of our energy cost that will allow our EBITDA to increase. Another probably thing that is not written here is that also besides a very good cash performance, especially in the second part of the year, we also expect for 2022 compared to 2021 a decrease in the tax rate of nearly five points. This is due especially from a different mix of, let me say, the profit, also because last year we had some one-off and also because now it is, let me say, we think it is better fine-tuned our balance sheet. That's all, and so now I am ready, together with Marco, to answer your question. Please, go ahead.

Excuse me, this is the Coruscant Conference Operator, We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Emanuele Galazzi with Equita. Please go ahead.

Yes, good evening everybody. A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on the guidance for 2023. Can you give us more granularity on the main assumption in terms of volume and the pricing? It seems it's still strong pricing entering in 2023 while volume is slightly down, but let me say more color on this will be useful. The second question is still on 2023. You are guiding for a substantially flat EBITDA year-on-year. But can you help us understand the dynamic that you expect quarter by quarter? I just try to understand if you expect a soft first alpha and then a recovery in the second alpha or something more, let's say, linear. And my last one is on Turkey. Can you give us an idea of what you are assuming for Turkey in your business plan this in terms of EBITDA evolution for the coming years? Thank you.

Starting, I mean, we see that 2020 has been forecasted also from the major central banks. So far, we are expecting a soft landing of the economy and what we have already seen in the last quarter some softness especially in the consumption in every market and we continue to see this probably in the first quarter you know that the first quarter is heavily impacted by the meteo and by also maintenance so January has been in line with our forecast and we are seeing, let me say, and also the range that we gave for 2023 is closer to the recurring EBITDA that we reached that year. So I think that the main answer is this year we were able to increase the price in a solid way in 2022. We expect 2023 to have a sort of mild market in terms of quantity across all the value chains from cement, ready mix and aggregates, but we continue to see solid base for the price. I repeat that our pricing model in Europe is, let me say, linked to the CO2 price, so we don't have risk and we transfer every month the average price that we have for the CO2. And, for example, also in Belgium, it's both for CO2 and electricity. So, Besides a huge gap in quantity, now we are in January, so it's the first month, I don't think that there are special threats to, let me say, this number. We see a better, let me say, growth during 2024 and 2025, but this is, let me say, commonly shared that probably we expect that the whole economy, if also the war between Russia and Ukraine, decrease the intensity, should, let me say, help especially the energy market to stabilize. On Turkey, you know, Turkey is a sort of wild card. This year... even with 90% roughly of inflation and 25% of devaluation, we have been able to reach, let me say, in euro, an EBITDA that is above 20 million euro. So, taking consideration that beside, unfortunately, the bigger quake that for sure in the second part of the year will have some, let me say, probably consequences in the consumption. It affects only our plant in Elazi. The other three plants are far from, let me say, this area. But in the half of May, there will be the election in Turkey. And so we don't know what will happen. As you know, If Erdogan, after 20 years, will lose power, there might be a big shift also in the economic politics. But if he will be able to keep, let me say, the power, probably nothing will change. In our forecast, actually, we believe that in 2025, 2020, Turkey should be virtually out of the IAS 29 because IAS 29 you have to apply when you have the accumulated inflation of 3 years that is above 100% we expect we expect to have 40% this year 25% next year and 15% in 2025 so if this let me say forecast will be respected Turkey should be out of the IAS 29 in 2025 so for this reason we decided to give in continuity with the previous industrial plan the plan without the IAS 29 so everyone each quarter can apply just to Turkey the IAS 29 that at the end of the game transfer some EBITDA to the financial income and change more or less nothing in the profitability of the company. The main thing is that in the normal situation you use the average exchange rate each month, in the year 29 you are forced to use the exchange rate at the end of the year. That is quite natural because even in January we traded both and sold Turkish Lira. And so we don't just keep Turkish Lira and change at the end of the year. So we think that for the balance sheet, the year 29 is alterating. But anyway, you are able to, every quarter, to adjust the balance sheet of the industrial plan and this is, I think, is the better way and more transparent. I don't remember if I have answered all your questions.

Yes.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you very much. The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni with Kepler. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you very much and good afternoon. I would like to know in general what kind of price versus cost assumption you are modeling in your plan because we see that there is no margin expansion so in other words the margin which you project in 2025 is 19 percent which still remains three percentage point below two to three percentage point below the peak touched in 2021 which was 22 percent so In general, I would like to know what are your expectations on the ability of the industry to keep solid pricing, also in a scenario in which some cost factors are going to moderate. And on this issue of the cost factor, if you can remind us the degree of inflation which we are going to experience on the variable energy cost, fuel and energy 2022 at the group level, given the expiry of some hedging. So this is the question, price cost and your increase of costs on 2023 given the fading of some hedging. And then just to confirm in the plan, one area of improvement is that you have around 15 million lower cost on CO2. That's correct calculation compared to the previous plan. And last question, It's a recurring question. I understand that maybe the answer cannot be a precise answer. Clearly, you have a point that you will reach 0.5 billion of net cash by 2025, which is, I call it an embarrassing problem. Let's say that embarrassing just because it creates a sort of mathematical inefficiency on your financial structure, but it's clearly something good to have.

again the dividend is going to remain pretty limited what is your mindset here I guess that sooner or later you would like to do some acquisition thanks yes starting from your last question I also answer partly when I started my intervention is that with this cash Today we are starting with this cash and with the price of the energy, average price that we have around the world, we are starting to see more opportunity in investing to decrease the energy intensity of our group. As I said, we were at 190 million cost of energy, both electricity and coal, in 2019, in 2023 is well above 400 million. So we are expecting, we have, let's say, a quite long queue of even big investors that today want, let me say, to produce energy for us sustainable energy for us and make a sort of take or pay contract long term at let me say a different price or average different price that we have today so there might be some project some let me say a good opportunity to have a quite big return instead of, let me say, I mean just for these three years we are investing in expanding the perimeter because, as you said and you are aware, today it's very difficult to evaluate in the medium-long term a cement steel factory because of, let me say, the energy, the CO2, and so I think that now that also we have positive rates and also in some part of the world the rates are between four and five percent to have this cash can produce also some extra profit. The other question, sorry Marco. Yes, our CO2 policy, as I said, is to save as much as is possible. As you know, besides the direct production of CO2 linked to the cement or to the clinker production, we can lower this by changing the mix or the receipt of the cement. Future Shem is one of these. We can use cement produced till 2025. That is the end of the year of the industrial plan to use cement from Turkey or from Egypt and also to have some of the investment, especially in Belgium, where we are starting to fully revamp our line that will allow us to increase the alternative fuel from 30% to above 70%. And this will... On the price assumption, you know, the price went up for both energy price and also CO2. CO2 is now higher than a few months ago. Today it's around 90. So I don't believe, frankly, that we should, let me say, have a pressure downward from CO2. Energy prices, it is true that we edged, but it's also last year, but it's also true that we continue to edge and we are partly edged till 2026. So I mean that for this year, I mean in this industrial plan, we don't expect Major volatility in our numbers coming from electricity because we are edged above 80%, both in electricity and in coal. I mean, you know that and here you can really see that even if we increase the sales of nearly 400 million and we expect to continue to grow up to 2 billion, the EBITDA margin is more or less in line or lower compared to 2021. First, this means that we increased the price more or less in line with the increase of the raw material including transportation. We expect and we have already included in this year also some, let me say, increase or salary increase in various parts of the world and this for sure affects the cost. I want also to repeat that this EBITDA margin decrease, let me say, is not real because now we have to, let me say, for accounting policy to include the CO2 in our, let me say, sales. And so part of the sales are, let me say, with no margin, because I have to, let me say, buy and resell the CO2 to the customer. And so on this part, it's like the VAT. You don't have margin on the VAT. So for everybody, so I believe that, frankly speaking, our 22% margin, it is... the same of nearly 20% because 2% is a sort of drifting made by the CO2 in accounting policy for everybody. So this is not that we believe that the margin is decreased, it is that part of the huge increase of the sales, it is due of the CO2, for sure. If the CO2 will go to 120, 130 euro in the next months of year, this increase will, let me say, put a bit pressure in the EBITDA margin. If the CO2 will go lower, you will see that the EBITDA margin will increase more or less in a linear way. So, let's say, this company, but I believe also other companies are not less profitable. It's just a matter that we have one tax that, let me say, started to be, let me say, accounted from 2022 and for the next year.

Matteo, just going back to your point, you're right. on your conclusion that on the CO2 shortage, because as Mr. Catanzarone pointed out, this new drive and renewed CO2 reduction led us to reduce the annual shortage by 40% from half a million to 300,000 tons. So if you apply the average price of CO2 to the lower shortage in the new industrial plant, you get to the number you mentioned before roughly.

Even if I must say that last year in our industrial plan we had an average price of 60, now the average price is 80 for 23, 80 for 24, and 90 for 25.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with Medibanca. Please go ahead.

Dr. Tortora, stiamo aspettando la sua domanda.

Non so se è ancora collegato.

Dr. Tortora disconnected. So, the next question is from Tobias Werner with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Buonasera, signore. Sono io, Tobias, di Stifel. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, and obviously, good afternoon also to Elisa. Firstly, I'd like to understand a little bit. I came a little bit late when you talked about the energy cost impact. When you refer to the 400 million, did you mean in 2022 or was that a forward-looking statement? And then as part of that question, with gas prices and electricity prices falling since the beginning of the year, are you likely to benefit from this? You've mentioned last year that you have long-term contracts, so you avoided the worst of the downside. Should we assume that you will forego the best of the upside in that context? So maybe give us a little bit of color on how we should see this. And then secondly, with regard to your housing exposure, we just heard from a building material company highly exposed to housing that they're going to struggle in 2023 in terms of the top line. Just give us a sense where and to what extent that could potentially have an impact on you. Thank you very much.

Thank you Tobias for your questions. The 400 million is the cost that we expect in 2023 compared to 190 million euro in 2019, so nearly double. We expect more than 400 million this year. as you we are let me say edged and continue to edge during the downturn of the price so the edge worked in a magnificent way compared to other let me say also competitors and we had let me say I think this very good result on the other hand let's say that if the price also goes far below our edging let's say create a sort of the economy in terms that our plan and our expectation it is made with the average cost that we expect we are edged as I said nearly 80% for sure if the last 20% can be acquired at a much lower price can be let me say an upside to this let me say to this number for sure but we are just in January so let's let me say wait a bit and after usually Easter we make it make sense we also make a sort of review of our business plan sort of four plus eight so just to be aware if we are aligned everywhere with the cost and the sales but as I said at the beginning of the cold January is in line in terms of quantity and also financial with our let me say guidance for 2023 and so housing exposure

I take the last one on the housing exposure. As you know, given our white cement importance within the product portfolio, we clearly have some housing exposure, mainly to housing renovation, repair and maintenance, rather than new build, to be honest. But still, clearly this will have an impact. I mean, clearly there are a number of forecasts out there And there is some evidence that higher interest rates and more expensive mortgages are having an impact on housing transactions and new dwellings. And this is particularly the case in certain areas. Sweden is one of them. But for us, it's not particularly big as an exposure. We don't see a dramatic change or increase negative scenario, and this is not what we're forecasting anyway in our budget and industrial plan. For sure, as the chairman said before, probably 2023 is going to be a bit of a year of two halves, with Q1 and Q2 a bit tougher on a quarter-on-quarter basis compared to last year, and a mild recovery for the second half. But obviously, in our forecast and our budget, Given that we are forecasting flat to slightly down volumes, we already are expecting some slowdown in housing activity, but the central case is not of any dramatic fall off. That's the one thing. The other thing is that in certain key countries, like for example Denmark, we are exposed to a number of sectors, not only housing, but to infrastructure, to commercial, and to... to all segments. And so in one way or the other, we're able to manage this exposure. But overall, the central case is Q1 and Q2 a bit tougher. Recovery is the second half, but no collapse in housing activity.

Thank you. If I may add one or two questions, if I may. Rate rates have collapsed around the world. as long as you've got an export-import business, i.e. you control the import terminal at the other end as well, you should, in theory, benefit from this in terms of the margins you make on your exports or your traded cement. Is that a fair observation? And if so, does that have a material impact on your global traded white cement?

Let's say that this year, as I said before, we reached the number that we were forecast to reach in 2024. So we have done, in 2022, a big jump. let's say we are still in a positive mood and also let me say the freight rate is going down but also I think to be prudent we would like also to consolidate this result and for this also the guidance seems not so bullish but even this year we were expecting the guidance was 3.05, 3.15 at the end the recurring EBITDA is around 335, 336 so it's well above so we want to start the year let's say with this cautiousness you are aware also that from the central bank they are shifting let me say also their view from mild recession to a sort of no recession or just a transition year so we have the same mood we expect that probably what we might partially lost in the first half could be recovered in the second half. So, more or less, let me say, this is our view. It is difficult, let me say, with a war, now a big earthquake impacting Turkey, that on one side... for sure create opportunities in the, let me say, months ahead or probably year for some increasing consumption. On the other hand, in that part of Turkey, there is also quite a bit part of production of cement that is exported. So I don't know if the export market and especially the European import market can be affected because some big plants owned by other competitors are exactly in that area. So I really don't know today, but take into account that until two years ago, Turkey exported nearly 10 million tons of cement. In the last couple of years, Turkey is exporting 30 million, 3-0 million of cement today. because a lot of players in Europe prefer to buy cement and save CO2. But if some of this cement is not available because the plant needs to be, let me say, revamped or we have an extra demand for cement in that area because the impact of the earthquake is quite huge, and we are just at the beginning this might affect the price because you know in Europe every producer is limited by the quota that receive of CO2 so nobody is pushing to produce more even if there is a sort of lack of product that can be imported only from Turkey and partly from Egypt but the bigger exporter is Turkey I mean, this probably might affect the market, the European market, positively in terms that less cement can flow. The white cement market, for sure, if the rates will go down from the moment that 80% of our cement is exported, can have some benefit, but let's say that part of this benefit are already included. in our, let me say, likely scenarios for 2023.

Thank you very much. I appreciate that.

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with MediBanca. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Good afternoon to everybody. Yes, hi. I think now you are hearing me okay. I have, let's say, four questions for me. The first one is if you can elaborate a bit more on Denmark and also the contribution, let's say, at the media level for Denmark in 2022, also because, let's say, this country started, let's say, with the soft pricing and therefore I would like to understand, let's say, the exit case level for the media margin for this key country for you. That's the first question. The second question is on Egypt. Here, I would like to understand, basically to remember, what's your view and what's your point on the devaluation the countries have experienced? And if you can confirm to us that, if I remember well, around half of your business was US dollar denominated, and therefore, in theory, you should exploit a little bit this devaluation, selling externally in US dollar. The third question is, if you can come back a little bit on the energy spending, so if you take as reference this around over 400 million of energy bill for you, the assumption that you make in 2025 is basically to have, I don't know, a certain level of energy spending, and therefore I would like to understand which sort of, let's say, decrease of the collage you see in this line. And the last question is, as you mentioned before, considering the cash you're going to generate, if you can help us also to understand the impact you see on, let's say, the net financial, let's say, items below the decline, if you see, let's say, overall a neutral level, or basically you're going to expect to reinvest some of this money going forward. Thanks.

I'll start from the last question. For sure, we are expecting to have a positive financial flow from the cash that starting from this year we will have. Part of the cash, you know, there is also the working capital cycle and the investment cycle, so the availability of the cash, as you know, is real, but then during the the quarter you have more cash or less cash but for sure now we have return on average return is cash and the more this cash is piled up the more let me say return depending on the currency that we own because partly is Euro partly are in Nordics partly is in dollars in Australian dollar also and in China it's one regarding the devaluation in Egypt let's say, as it happened in Turkey today, we see that for the export it's positive because it lowers your cost. And then in Egypt there are only two white producers, and also I think that in Euro terms we should be able to defend the profitability even if or let's say to increase the internal price because as you know most of the price for cement is energy and then there is also the dispatching and then you have salary but let's say we don't expect a major, let me say, difference. On the profitability of Denmark, we see, let me say, a stable, even a bit of increase during 2023 because we'll change the mix of our, let's say, client, there are some big projects that will start during the year that should, let me say, balance the, let me say, less demand from the private sector. So for this reason, we think that, let's say that in this three-year plan, I mean, the Nordics will be more or less stable because, let's say, you know that the real estate market is very high, so for sure we, especially with the rate, mortgage rate that increased, we expect and we are already seeing a downturn in demand. But on the other side, you have to think about that there is a push. This is everywhere. for the energy class of the house to re-qualify, to save, let me say, heating. And so we see less demand for new real estate, a bit more demand for renovation, especially for energy issue. for the single, let me say, unit, and we see a bit of increase in infrastructure. So more or less, in our, let me say, forecast, even up to 2025, we see the profitability coming from Nordics, generally, not only Denmark, stable.

Okay, okay. And on the energy spending side, sorry, yeah.

Yes. On the energy, on our, let me say, forecast, and the number that I can give you is that we see that compared to 2022, in 2023, we should see a decrease in the pet clock of around 20%. in the freight rate, we think that already in 2022 we have seen a big jump, a big downturn, so we are expecting in 2023 up to 2025 a stable situation. We think that starting from this year we should see as is already happening, a decrease in the gas price and followed by a decrease in the electricity price. But also, we have to take into account that the economic forecast for the whole of Europe and major countries is for a mild recession. If we don't have a mild recession, on the other hand, we will have a higher consumption of electricity. And so, on one side, we are happy because the consumption of cement or everything will be higher, but I also expect that the electricity market anyway is tight. Besides, there is this transition... that started and will take years, and I don't think that we will see the numbers that we saw in the last decade, probably never. I think that if electricity can, let me say, plateau around 100 per megawatt euro, it will be a nice price. Now we are, depending on the market, 160, 140, so depending where you are and if you buy spot or if you buy long-term. And we see that, let's say, anyway, a 10 to 5, between 5 and 10% of decrease in 2023 as an average compared to 2022. That is not the average price of the electricity that, you know, the peak was at nearly 1,000. It's compared to what we paid in 2022. So we think that we will pay. This doesn't mean because we are partly ahead. So we think that we can save, depending on the zone, the geography, from 5% to 10%. Okay. Okay.

Okay, okay. I'm sorry, but just to follow up on what you mentioned before, considering the contribution of Nordics in this business plan. So basically, if we need to think about a sort of bridge of these, let's say, 60 million, almost 60 million EBITDA increase in up-to-date term, considering the stable contribution from Nordics, I don't know, there are, what's basically the main contributor you see going forward, the considering that you mentioned?

Let's say, besides, I mean, let's say, as I say, Scandinavia, more or less, 5 million, I mean, big decrease. But the big contribution, I mean, for the 2023, our numbers are more or less, let me say, stable or in line with 2022. We see that in 2024, but especially in 2025, we should have a big increase in profitability made by the new kiln that will, in Belgium. So Belgium will increase... nicely the profitability because we'll change the energy mix and also I don't know which will be the gas price but also from the moment that by the end of this year in Aalborg and from 2024 we might use substitute gas against coal we will also save CO2. So the jump especially in 2024 and 2025 in profitability is made by let's say a sort of an average increase of profitability but the big chunk will come from Belgium because we are already started an investment of 770 million euro and to have the possibility to go from 30% to 70% of alternative fuel and biomass. So I will shift from 70% of coal to 30% of coal. And this is, let me say, from the moment that Sesebe, it's a big plant, is from above 2 million tons of production, will create some big savings.

Okay, thanks.

The next question is from Giuseppe Grimaldi with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everybody. I have one question on your pricing around Q4. If you have increased further the price in Q4 compared to the level that we have seen in Q3. And the second question is around your sales guidance for this year. You're guiding for more than 1.8 billion, so it's something like 5% increase, more or less. Assuming that volumes are down, as you said, basically most of the increase should come from pricing, I guess. Does it come from the price increase that you have already announced, or do you plan to increase further price into 2023? I think that, let's see,

As you can imagine, last year the price increased quarter by quarter in some areas before and some areas after. So it's a sort of follow through of this increase that we will see. As I said, we have the price that is linked directly to the CO2. so if the CO2 goes to 120 the price will increase automatically so it's not a matter so let's say we have decided and also and in Belgium this is also done for the electricity so let's say that beside the edge the price can increase only if the CO2 increase for the Nordics and only if one of the two, electricity or CO2, increase in Belgium, France. Then on the rest of the perimeter is, let me say, is different, is affected by different, mainly is white cement, and Turkey has also a fixed price for energy. In Turkey, the increase is linked to the inflation. As you can imagine, with 90% of inflation, we increase the price nearly every two weeks. I don't know which kind of inflation we expect for Turkey. is expected to have this 40% in 2023. It's the half, but also we have the election in May. So the price will accordingly freeze like, let me say. As I said, the remaining of the perimeter is white cement and let's say the dynamics is quite different and also the pricing power is quite different but we don't believe that we can also ask to the customer another let me say big jump in the price if it is not sustained but by a real increase in shipping, raw material, labor costs, I mean, if we don't see a real inflation, let me say, or a persistent inflation, it is difficult to ask again, let me say, a price increase. We will see, or we will see for, let me say, a few quarters, because some of the price has been also updated during the last quarter of 2022, so compared to, let me say, the first quarter of 2023, let me say, you will have naturally a higher price, not because we increased now, but we increased before. So we see that now the market in Europe is well balanced in terms of demand and supply. I say that Turkey, the big earthquake, might affect probably in some part the capacity of Turkey to export to Europe. And let's say there might be some pressure up from the fact that Turkey will be less able to export or will use more cement for, let me say, internal matters.

Thank you. And maybe just one last point is you said basically you're going to expand 400 million of energy and electricity costs in 2023. If you can remind us the same expense in 2022.

One moment, we are checking.

Thank you. We were at 375. Thank you. Thank you very much.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti with Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Yes, good evening, everyone. Two questions. The first one is on USA. If you can give us your view on your assumption for the U.S. market in 2023 and also the plan horizon. But I understand that in the longer term it's probably really difficult. And the second question regards the free cash flow generation you expect over the planned period. So you cited possible investments to reduce energy costs. I would like to understand, is this something that could involve most of these free cash flow generations? in your plan? This could be something starting already in 2023, and how much of the free cash flow could be devoted to such goals?

Our investment that supports the energy consumption of the plant is already included in this plan. We might have the possibility to create extra profit margin revenues to invest in something, let me say, that directly or indirectly is linked to our plant. For example, in Turkey there is a new law that you can, let me say, if you are a self-consumer of energy with high intensity without any permit you can even at 500 kilometers build your photovoltaic solar field and you can let me say just pay the transfer of the electricity this as you know can change because today I mean, it seems that to produce one megawatt is about, let's say, 800,000 euro. And so, let's say, an average of 80 euro. If we pay the electricity 200, let's say, there is space to build this kind of, let me say, strategy. that will decrease the cost on one side and on the other side create extra revenues. There are other opportunities even sustained by world banks or by central European banks where to decrease the energy intensity you can probably have a nice return. So today, besides the plan that is already fully financed and fully includes the savings that we have, I say that with the extra cash, the MRB might be, from my point of view, in these three years, more opportunity, let me say, to decrease the energy intensity and so to have a better return in the cash if I want to use this cash, this free cash flow, instead of expanding the perimeter with M&A. This is my belief, and as you probably see, there is a very, very low M&A around the world with cement, mainly for this reason, because nobody knows the profitability probably in the next two or three years some player will build around a plant a system to supply energy and probably even to sell energy outside because if you produce in excess and this might become a different a different way to produce let me say profit let's say that you I don't know in the future we might have 10% 90% of our profit coming from building materials and 10% coming from energy that we sell outside so it's premature because as you know there are a lot of projects pilot projects for carbon capture so is that just my feelings that I say I don't think that in the next three years I would buy another plant or another competitor probably I will start to invest starting from my plant and the location where I am not in Brazil or other place where I'm not in probably in the energy sector because there are a lot of musicians also fiscal incentives that are linked to the heavy consumer of energy. So it's an opportunity, I say, but for sure in the actual plan nothing is included. Today we have just started to think about. I want just to be transparent, to align my investor that we might start to invest in this field part of the cash. Then if we will find a big investment with good return, we will update for sure the market. For the time being, we are just starting to see some dossiers brought by several banks, and there might be opportunity, I think, more than in M&A.

Okay, thank you. And about your assumption on the U.S. market, if you can elaborate a little bit.

The United States, you know, white cement, it's a slow market, slow up and slow down. It's a stable market. As you know, in the United States, we are the only producer and we are going at full capacity. So the rest is imported. And usually the market is bad because if the market will go down a little bit, less import partly made by us. So, as you know, white cement, because we just produce and sell white cement, is not used for infrastructure. So, it is mainly for renovation or for architectural purposes. So, we see stable to, let's say, increase 1%. But, let's say, this is in terms of, let me say, quantity. I don't see... major changes in the next three years in the consumption of white cement in the USA. Thank you.

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and 1 on your telephone. Mr. Bianconi, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay, thank you very much then for your interest in Chairman Teer and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day and evening. Thank you. Have a nice evening. Bye. Bye-bye.