Cemetir Holding

Good afternoon, this is the Coral School Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Cementir 2024 Preliminary Results and 2025-2027 Industrial Plan Update Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, that may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on the telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, Head of M&A and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to Charity Holding preliminary results for the year 2024 and industrial plan updates. I'm here with our chairman and chief executive, Francesco Caltagirone.

Good afternoon.

Who is here to take your question at the end. I will go through a presentation deck that's been distributed, and I will start immediately with page four, where you have the preliminary results highlights, which show that the group during 2024 has reached a revenue of 1.68 billion euro, not 0.4%. year-on-year, non-GAAP revenues were just minus 2.7% from last year. Important to note that all volumes increased in absolute terms from last year. Cement was up 0.5%, the writing mix was up 7%, mainly driven by Turkey, Denmark, and Sweden. Aggregates were up 7.1%. Revenues were lower, mainly due to strong foreign currency headwinds, especially in Turkey and Egypt. EBITDA reached €407.3 million, 0.9% down year on year. Non-GAAP EBITDA was €399.3 million, minus 5.4%. The lower EBITDA was recorded in all regions with the exception of Turkey, Egypt, and Sweden. It's worth mentioning that 2024 EBITDA included non-recurring expenses of €4.4 million, whereas the comparable figure of 2023 included net non-recurring income of €11.6 million. If we adjust for the non-recurring items, EBITDA non-GAAP was €403.6 million, down 1.6%, with an EBITDA margin of 24.5%. EBIT reached €262 million, down 5.9% year-on-year. Non-GAAP EBIT was €266.7 million, down 10.9%. Profit before taxes was €284.9 million, minus 2%. Non-GAAP pre-tax was €295.3 million, minus 6.5%. Net cash reached 290.4 million euro year-end, an improvement of 72.8 million year-on-year, including 43.5 million of dividends by the parent company, plus 14 million euro of extraordinary dividends to subsidiaries, by subsidiaries and third parties, as well as extraordinary investments for 48 million euro. If we turn to page five, As usual, at this time in the year, we provide some guidance with regards to 2025 results. We expect to reach a revenue in 2025 of €1.75 billion, which is up around 6% from 2024, an EBITDA of €415 million, which is up 3% year-on-year, and a net cash position of around €410 million, which is an increase of €120 million from 2024. The capex we target is around €98 million. Clearly, this guidance refers to like-for-like ongoing operations, non-GAAP, and excluding any extraordinary items. We now turn to page seven. We have a few slides about the industrial plan. I will quickly go through page seven, where our strategy, which is unchanged, is aimed at creating long-term value for all stakeholders. As you can see in this slide, we have five key pillars. One is sustainability. where we have more aggressively reduced our CO2 reduction target to 2030, as you will see shortly. I remind you that our net zero emissions are aligned to the one and a half Celsius scenario by SBTI. We also achieved an A rating for climate change by CDP. We also announced recently one of the largest onshore CCS projects in Europe, which will be executed in Denmark by 2030. I also remind you about Futuresim and Decarb and our wide array of low-carbon products. As far as the other areas, clearly we continue to seek continuous operating efficiencies and digitize our processes. from lean manufacturing to e-procurement to smart maintenance, et cetera. We also strive to continue to innovate, focusing on low-carbon cements, and also, as mentioned before, we've started a CCS project in Denmark. With regards to growth and positioning, we want to reinforce our vertical integration model in the Nordics, Belgium, and Turkey, and we want to keep our global wet cement leadership And at the same time, given our strength of balance sheet, we want to save any M&A opportunity which may arise in our core businesses. With regards to people, we pursue a zero-accident program. We are developing our human capital, and we very much nurture talent and a succession plant in a company. To turn to page eight, I was mentioning before the aggressive CO2 reduction target, which you can see on this slide are both below the taxonomy CO2 levels. So we are targeting scope one emissions of 417 kilograms of CO2 per cement equivalent from 718 of the baseline. This is a reduction of 42%. With white cement, we are targeting 653 kilograms of CO2 per ton of cement equivalent, which is 29% down from the 915 of 2020 baseline. We can also see the clinker ratio reduction, which is one of the levers we're using to achieve our targets. To turn to page nine, just a few words about our CCS project. We have recently announced ACCION, which stands for Alborg CCS. CCS using infrastructure onshore in Northern Jutland. It is a consortium with EarlyKid. It is a project that will allow us to avoid 1.5 million tons of CO2 per year. This project has been selected to receive 220 million euro from the European Innovation Fund. The technology is cryogenic technology, CryoCap, which is an EarlyKid technology. which enables high purity CO2 capture from cement and white, gray and white cement emissions. Just to mention that these projects will allow the capture of CO2 and the transportation to a newly built pipeline which will permanently store the gas in onshore storage facilities. The project should be operational from the beginning of 2013. On page 10, some of the industrial plant targets. You can see here that from the actual 1.65 billion euro, we expect to achieve by 2027 a revenue of around 2 billion, which is between 6% and 7% compounded growth rate in top line. As far as EBITDA recurring, From the 404 recurring EBITDA, we aim at achieving €465 million, which is a compounded growth of around 5%. As far as net cash, from the €290 million of cash at the end of 2024, we expect to achieve around €700 million of net cash by 2027, which is an increase of €410 million over the period. As you can see from page 11, some of the main points, 6% to 7% revenue, compounded growth rate driven by increased capacity in Egypt, recovery in Denmark and Asia Pacific, is likely offset by a moderate decline in Turkey. We expect volumes of cement to grow around 5% compounded, RMC by 1% and 2% for aggregate. Prices should be generally stable or go in line with inflation on average and include the Danish CO2 emission tax. EBITDA growth should be across the board, also driven by output increase and optimization in Egypt with a second line and in Belgium. We expect an increase in electricity and fuel cost, and we should be on average short of around 200,000 tons of CO2 in the three years of the plan. As far as EBITDA margin, you can see that we expect a mean reversion of the margin to a more sustainable 23.3%. As far as yearly capex, including sustainability capex, that's around 104 million euro, which corresponds to a capital sales ratio of between 4 and 5%. The cumulative sustainability capex is around 53 million euro. You can see that on the net cash, the cumulative €400 million of cash flow generation, we also expect to remunerate our shareholders with a progressive dividend payout in the 20% to 25% range. On page 12, just a quick comparison between the old and the new plan, and you can see that there is an acceleration in the expected revenue growth, as well as EBITDA recurring growth. We continue to generate a significant amount of cash, and we expect to continue a dependable growth trajectory. The last slide from my end on page 13, just a breakdown of the CAPEX by year. You can see on the graph to the right of the slide that is broken down between maintenance and sustainability CAPEX for each year of the industrial plan. Of this 53 million that we expect, the main CAPEX initiatives are some facility upgrades for futures and production, switch to natural gas in Aalborg and Goran, CCS in Denmark, some water recycling, DDoS improvement, and digitalization of main projects. This ends my short presentation. I will then leave the floor to Mr. Francesco Caltasirone to take any questions he may have. Thank you.

This is the Coruscall conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. First question is from Matteo Bonizzoni, Kepler Chevrolet. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good afternoon. I have a question. Two questions, basically. The first one is related to the phasing of your EBDA growth across the three years. Basically, you're guiding 465 million for 2027 and 450 next year. So next year, you expect 10 million more EBDA, 11 million more EBDA. there is a significant acceleration for the 26 and 27, 25 million per year. So I was willing to know the reason for this, also in relation to the utilization of the additional capacity for white cement in Egypt. That's the first question. Thanks.

Regarding, I mean, next year compared to 2027, I mean, next year, this year, 2025, let's say that our forecast is affected by our view in the foreign exchange, especially for Turkey and Asia, that together account for nearly half a billion of revenues. We, in our industrial plan, we take just the forward at the end of area of the exchange rate. As it happened also last year, where the Darkish Vida, for example, was compared to a 45% of inflation The Lira devaluated only 22%, 23%. In fact, in the last quarter of last year, we have a significant upgrade in our result. So we have cautiously put a linear, let me say, devaluation. But if Turkey that is starting, let me say, to converge to a more, let me say, It might happen that the Lira devaluates less than what we forecast. And even in Egypt, we saw the same problem. So let's say that if we have an evaluation of the Lira that is close to what we saw last year, we might have just a matter of recalculation of the EBITDA also for Turkey and Asia that is around 10 million euro more. So this is just... Then also we are able to consider that if Turkey continues in its, let me say, trajectory in terms of slowing down the inflation, they should be out of the US 29 in 2027. This means also that in our forecast we don't have, let me say, to apply as 29, that anyway, as you know, it's, let me say, usually lower the EBITDA and the profitability. So for this reason, you see a bigger gap compared, let me say, to the first year, to the last year of our industrial plan, because also we are considering here. that Turkey should exit at the end of 2026, they have 29. Regarding Egypt, the new line at nearly half a million of capacity, and this year we think that we are going to use nearly 50, 60% of this. And in the next two or three years, we should go at full capacity.

OK, thank you. Second last question is, compared to the previous plan, there is an improvement of the margin assumption. So let's say that you were expecting 21.3% margin in 26 in the old plan, and now it's 23.3% in 27. So same revenues, but 40 million more in BDA compared to the previous plan one year after, clearly. That comes from what? A different assumption on pricing, on cost, I don't think it's much volume, it's maybe more pricing assumption or something else. Thanks.

I think that even last year if you take, let me say, our industrial fund so that we end up in 2023 with nearly 24% of profitability and we forecast to lower around 200 basis points. I mean, these 200 basis points, as I say, the are mainly the conversion of the change rate. Here, we are just reconsidering that Turkey now, because it's one year more, should be just two years away from the exit from year 29. And this, let me say, bring us a better profitability. But the real profitability of the company doesn't change. It's just a matter of how it is, let me say, because the free cash flow of the company before dividend that is around 200 million is the same with or without the IAS 29. So here is just a matter of what we expect as exchange rate for the final year. Then more or less, let's say that we think that the mild recovery that started to materialize in the last quarter of last year should continue. The rates from the central bank are going, let me say, south. So we expect that some recovery to begin, especially in the Nordics. Where we still see some, let me say, weakness is still in China. that is the only country that the three-year industrial plan is more or less flat. All the other, let me say, countries in our perimeter are, let me say, we will see some growth, especially in great amounts linked to infrastructure and a milder, let me say, growth for white-cells.

Okay, thank you.

Next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi, Equita. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon, everybody. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the Turkish market. If you can just provide a little bit more details about your expectation for 2025 for the Turkish market and more, let's say, for the medium term, considering the implementation of the carbon border adjustment mechanism from 2026 forward, Can you just discuss a little bit more on your view on the Turkish market evolution in the coming years? The second one is on the capital allocation. You ended 2024 with about 300 million euros net cash, and you are expecting to end 2027 with, give or take, 700 million euros net cash. of NFCash and you basically reiterated to be ready for potential M&A opportunities. So just a clarification about your strategy on M&A and your view on this topic. Thanks.

So in Turkey this year we see a slight downturn in terms of revenues and EBITDA but As I said, it's affected also by the exchange rate. On the other hand, you have to consider that what is happening in Syria and what might happen also in Ukraine can be very bullish for the Turkish cement environment because you have a very, and also in Gaza Strip. So you have two huge countries, I mean, Syria and Ukraine, that the cement can only arrive from Turkey for the reconstruction, and also the gas strip can arrive from Turkey. So if this materialized, started to materialize because the Syrian market started to open again for import from Turkey after a very long time, this can caused, let's say, a shortage of cement inside Turkey that should more than compensate the enablement of the border tax adjustment. So today, it's quite early to, let me say, forecast any outcome, but we think, I mean, what we learn from the Turkish Cement Association is that just the reconstruction in Turkey, in Syria, sorry, can absorb from 8 to 10 million of cement per year for 10 years. So a huge quantity that, let me say, should affect the internal market, and this is a very, let me say, bullish, let me say, but this is one of the scenarios. But for next year, we are cautious, and then I mean, for the 26 and 27, we see a mild dose of recoveries for Turkey, not including at all any kind of reconstruction for Syria and for Ukraine and for Gaza. Regarding the cash piling, as I said, Next year, with the border tax adjustment and also with another cut in the free allowance, you probably have already seen that this year the price of the CO2 went from nearly 62, 63 euro to more than 80 euro. This is because, as already said, year after year, 3% per year, the linear cut of every allowance sum up and then we will start even this year let's say that the price also might reach close to 100 we think at the end of the year because we have less CO2 around. So for this reason as I said some of the plants that today producing cement around Europe will start, let me say, to feel the pain of the price because all you, let me say, have the possibility to cast the CO2 with the CCR project, but you will need from three to five years or you need to buy CO2. And this, as you can imagine, will affect the balance sheet. So we don't want to rush buy any asset now because we think that, as I already said, that in two or three years, some of, let me say, the plants in Europe will have a completely different, let me say, price. This doesn't mean that we want to buy and then upgrade the plants for free, but if somebody wants to sell or to close and sell the market... have to consider that you need a certain cost that you are aware of because our project in Aalborg for 1.5 million of capture will cost more than half a billion euro. And so this has to be deducted from the future price of an asset. So for this reason, we will continue to pile up cash waiting for, let me say, better market conditions to expand the company.

Very clear, thank you.

Next question is from Alessandro Tortora Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Yes, good evening to everybody. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is on the Axion project. Can you tell us basically which are the next steps to reach the final investment decision And also, in terms of funding, can you remind us your share of the total investment? I read, for instance, the possibility to apply for some carbon capture storage fund in Denmark. So just understand additional details on this project. This is the first question. Thanks.

On Action Project, we think that we should end all the bureaucracy around the Let me say the first half of this year. Then we should start the implementation for, I mean, design and engineering and order, and should start, let me say, to build, to revamp, let me say, the plant starting at the end of 2027, and then we will take from around 30 months to build all the facilities. The total cost... before the grant is around 550 million. The grant is 220. Of the remaining 330 million, we are going to, let me say, finance directly nearly 90 million. That, let me say, should fall from 2027 to 2029. And the remaining part will be, let me say, provided by our industrial partner, that is Air Liquide, that will recover the cost on, let me say, on a fee, on per ton captions. This is simply the scheme of the project.

This investment, maybe you can provide, let's say, some update on the overall economics, because I guess there is also CAPEX, let's say, as you mentioned before, but also some items on the P&L side that we need probably to care about. For sure.

I mean, this is just the CAPEX, then you have the OPEX that is linked to the energy consumption. I mean, 80% is energy consumption, and Consider that, let's say, that today you need one, let me say, unit of electric energy to produce cement, then you will need two more units of energy to capture and store the CO2. At the end, that means in terms of energy consumption will be one plus two, I mean three will be the cost of electricity that is the main, let me say, cost, because the other is 10% is maintenance, and then other 5% are minor, let me say, things. But the running cost will be linked to the energy cost.

Okay, okay, okay. Thanks. Then the second question is on the Danish CO2 emission tax. Can you comment also a little bit on this because now this is starting from let's say January this year. So which kind basically of price increase I guess you already announced in order to cover this extra cost but also are you confident that you are able to basically cover this price increase, this extra cost tax?

The price that we have estimated on our, let me say, domestic sales in Denmark is around 30 million euros. That will be a transparent mechanism like VAT. I think that we recover in full. The market is aware since the last two or three years that this tax will arrive. And this also is used by, let me say, the Danish... government to finance the project. Because, I mean, besides the facility in our plant, you need the pipeline, the storage, and all the other things. You know also that Denmark will be the first country that from this year will tax every cow 100 euros for the emission. So they want to be always ahead of the curve, but we are in this kind of country that, let me say, We have the opportunity, but on this tax, let's say, that is affecting mainly cement and building materials, we'll have this 30 million that, let me say, we will fully recover because it's a tax that will apply in the invoice.

Okay, okay, thanks.

Next question is from Tobias Werner, Stifo Europe. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen and ladies. A couple of questions from my side, and thanks for the opportunity. Number one, when I look at your Turkish business, you have capacity of 5.4 million in terms of gray cement. In my model, I don't have full capacity utilization. So in that context, you'd be able to export. But maybe give us a little bit of color. which plants you can actually export from. I've got the map in front of me. I see the Adena plant and the Izmir plant. It looks like the Elazig plant might be a bit more difficult or the Kars plant. But just give us a sense of where you could actually ramp up your capacity utilization if Syria was rebuilding. And on that front, Syria rebuilding, you mentioned an annual tonnage of 8 to 10 million tons needed to rebuild the country. and that would be laudable, obviously, but at the same time, do you have an understanding of where the funding could potentially come from for that effort? And equally, around Turkey, a more short-term trading-related question, number three, pricing seems to have gone up in terms of what I can see from the data I follow by six euros a ton in the last quarter. Is that something you've observed in your businesses as well, or is this on the national level, or maybe just a statistical mistake?

Thank you. Regarding the opportunity to export from Turkey, we mainly have, let me say, a little bit more than 5 million tons of capacity, and we can export up to 1 million tons. Mainly, is 700,000 tons from Izmir, and then we have 150,000 tons from our plant that is at the border with Bulgaria and Greece, and another 150,000 tons mainly from Elazi, because, let me say, it's 200 kilometers from the border with Syria. You have to consider that There are only few plants on the border that can, let me say, supply cement. And today in Syria, everything is totally destroyed. So for the first two or three years, for sure the cement should arrive from land border, partly, I think, a very small quantity by sea, but mainly from Turkey, because then Egypt doesn't have a lot of, let me say, spare capacity on the sea to export gray cement. And the other countries, Libya, Algeria, are limited. So mainly in Syria, you can arrive from Turkey, especially from the inland border. Then the other, sorry.

the funding of the rebuilding program in Syria, whether you have any sort of indications where that could be coming from.

I mean that some for sure today and also I mean behind the last, let me say, political and also military moves are for sure Turkey and behind this, and Turkey is, let me say, very incentivated to invest and to rebuild Turkey, especially the part that, you know, the Kurdish, let me say, population is split between Iraq, Turkey, and Syria. So they want, let me say, to stabilize that part. And then I think also it will arrive from mainly from the other Arab countries. And so we think that, but you know, in the first stage, you have to rebuild mainly the roads, the deposits, and then Today, it's even difficult. After 10 kilometers that you enter from Syria, from Turkey, you have a mine. It's very difficult. It will be slow in the beginning, but then, let's say, this is what we heard in the Turkish Cement Association. Then, the other Yes, in Turkey, let me say, the price are mainly increasing because they are following the inflation. So with last year, 44%, that is nearly 4% per month, every couple of weeks, you have to update the list price. I mean, because as I said, you have more inflation and less devaluation in Euro terms, you have an increase. So this is a real increase, exactly. But this doesn't, let me say, it might materialize even this year or not, we don't know. Because if there is a decoupling another time between inflation and devaluation, we might see, let me say, that in Euro terms, the price will grow let me say, in a faster pace compared to the European countries, for example.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Next question is from Bruno Permutti in Tesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon everyone.

I have a few questions. The first one concerns the cash you have. You were very clear in telling us that It's not the right moment to invest, perhaps. But what is the long-term strategy? So do you believe that there will come a moment in which it will be possible to invest this in the business or I mean is there the idea could be to to pursue better capital allocation, perhaps by distributing the cash or, I don't know, waiting for some new investment opportunities to come, or you believe that it's safer to buy the cash for the long term. A second question concerns the the environmental theme. We are assisting to perhaps some weakening of the I would say of all the green themes. Is this something that could affect the cement industry in your view or you believe that there will not be diminishing attention to decarbonization by 2030. I understood that you're very focused on that in your 2030 strategy, but I would like to have a comment from you, not for your position exactly, but for the position of the industry. and a last question concern Egypt are you seeing the depreciation the sudden depreciation of the pound as a one-off or you believe that so you believe that now there would be a stabilization period or you expect further depreciation there

regarding I mean what we can do with the cash as I said our strategy is to continue to grow in this market today the reality is that if you want to buy assets there are assets available especially in Europe as I said the issue is that the price that the seller expects is not fully incorporate the cost of revamping or renovating the plant for the, let me say, future environmental limits. So today there is still a gap, but as I said, I think that in 24 months or around about this, we might see that some portfolios, especially in the big companies, starting from, let's say, I think a whole thing that, as you know, is splitting into the business, the USA and the rest of the world. Then we have other players, they know that we are aware that in some, let me say, situation, they close the plant because they don't want to sell to a third party and want to keep the market but on there are other places where let me say probably they are going to sell because they cannot keep the market if they close and so here it's a matter of when we think we will meet let me say our valuation with their valuation and then we have the single home family plant that is a matter of cost, the more the CO2 increase, the lower the profitability they will have because the free allowance will finish. And also, as you probably saw in our balance sheet, we are, let me say, short of an average of 200,000 tons for the next three years. But in our balance sheet, 200,000 tons of cement are, let me say, purely fundable. In other balance sheets, if you continue and then by 2030 when you will have, let me say, another 50% cut, let me say, for the next decade, then it will become nearly impossible to survive. Or you think that the price will go around 300 euro, and so you can continue to keep buying CO2 at 100 and 150 euro, or you have to sell, let me say, a close down stock. I don't think that today in our strategy is to return to, let me say, share all the sum of the cash, but never say never. Today, say for the possible future, we think that especially from our view in Europe and not in other parts of the world because we have this regulation that is being, let me say, enforced. And we think that going to the other questions that Europe will continue, especially for the big industries, cement, steel, aluminum, and glass, and electricity will continue in its path. Consider also that, you know, that even the Trump administration in less than four years will end up and they don't have the possibility to be reelected. and when you make this kind of investment, usually you need a path of 10 to up to 20 years, so every four year, two year, depending on which is, let me say, the wing that governs every state, you cannot, let me say, change the policy. So I think that even probably you have seen in the car industries, they might mild or increase some, let me say, terms in terms of data, but I don't think that softening of this energy. And probably the sharp increase that we have seen in the CO2 price in the last couple of months was in that direction, because everybody expected that probably this legislation should have been sweetened, but it doesn't seem so. And also for the border tax adjustment, it seems that probably they will carve out the small interest, but they account just for the 5% of the mission, just because it will be very difficult to track everybody that will arrive in the port or in the railway terminal. It would be very complicated, but for the, let me say, big industries, as they just said a few days ago, they will continue with the scheme because this will affect the 95% of the emission market.

Thank you.

Sorry, the interest, I mean, regarding the devaluation, you know, it's not a matter... of when, if, but it's a matter of when. When you have inflation that is few tenths every year, usually this country try to resist, but then you see a strong devaluation of nearly 20, 30, even 50%. So here it depends if we will see in the next, let me say, months, for a couple of years that the inflation will come down sharply, probably we will have a mild devaluation. Otherwise, if you have, like last year in Egypt, was the inflation probably 85%, you can, let me say, keep the exchange rate at this level. Probably for one year, yes, but then you might expect to have the... But for us, that we export nearly 80% of our... what we produce, especially now that we have restarted the second line. And in Egypt, we have, let me say, half currency reserve. The devaluation is, let me say, it's a cost to cut our cost and increase our profitability. So it's not negative, let me say, that from time to time, the Egyptian founder will devalue it. Because for us, but it's only for us because we are the very few that export from Egypt.

Thank you.

Mr. Bianconi, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay, so thank you very much for your interest in Chamonix and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day and evening. Bye-bye. Thank you. Have a nice evening. Bye.