Cemetir Holding

Good evening. This is the course called Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Chairman-Tier Holding first nine-month 2025 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, Head of M&A and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good afternoon and good morning, everybody, and welcome to Chairman Searholding's 2025 nine-month results presentation. I am here with our Chairman and Chief Executive, Francesco Cartagirone, who is happy to take your question at the end of my short presentation. I will go through the presentation deck, which has been distributed, starting with page number two, with the key takeaways about our results. The first point is that the microeconomic scenario is still characterized by high uncertainty, driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, and further exacerbated by protectionist measures in the U.S. which are affecting actually the global economic growth rate. First nine months results were in line with our expectations with a third quarter showing improvement both in cement and in aggregate volumes. Revenues were broadly stable with slightly lower EBITDA compared to the same period of last year, mainly due to 12.5 million euro negative currency effect and 2.7 million euro net non-recurring charges. There were two non-recurring events which affected the operating performance in the period. First was a fire in the alternative fuel feeding system in Belgium, and the second were technical issues with the restart of the second production line in Egypt. Further details will be given later on. The 2025 guidance is confirmed with revenues of around 1.75 billion euro, EBITDA of around 415 million euro, and net cash of around 410 million euro a year end. This forecast excludes any non-recurring items and are determined on a like-for-like basis. If you can turn the page to page number three, just a few financial highlights. Revenue reached 1.227 billion euro, minus 0.7% year over year. Non-GAAP revenues was up 0.4% to 1.2324 billion euro. At constant 2024, exchange rate revenue would be now 5.6%. Cement volumes were up 2.4%, mainly thanks to Turkey, with a slight decline in Belgium and Denmark, whereas RMC volumes were stable and aggregate volumes were up by 5.2%. EBITDA was down 2.9% year-over-year to 287.3 million euros. Non-GAAP EBITDA was down only 1.8% year-over-year to 284 million. The lower EBITDA was mainly due to the negative exchange rate effect of 12.5 million mentioned before and non-recurring charges of 2.7 million euro. Non-GAAP EBITDA margin reached 23% versus 23.6% on the same period of last year. EBITDA was down 7% year-on-year. Non-GAAP EBITDA was down 6%. Net financial result was negative by 0.3 million, down from 18.1 million in the first nine months of 24, mainly due to higher foreign exchange gains recorded in 2024, linked to the over 50% devaluation of the Egyptian pound versus the euro. For this reason, profit before tax on a reported basis was down 17.4%, and non-GAAP pre-tax was down 14.2% year-on-year. Net cash position is very strong, 198.5 million euro, an improvement of over 118 million euro year-on-year, including 43.5 million of dividends by the parent company and 6 million of dividends to minorities. Let's go through the main geographies. If you turn to page four, Nordic and Baltic, which is the largest region, 47% share of our group EBITDA. In Denmark, gray and white domestic cement volumes were slightly down versus last year, with the residential sector still relatively weak. The ferment project volumes remain below forecast. Export were up 4%, mainly to higher deliveries in the region. RMC volumes were down 4%, whereas aggregate volumes were up by 18% with strong demand. EBITDA was up by 5.9%, mainly due to the positive contribution of cement and savings in fuel and electricity consumption. In Norway, RMC volumes were up 9%, supported by favorable weather conditions and the start-ups of major projects. They are signs of market recovery, although there is still a bit of overcapacity in price competition. EBITDA was up due to higher volumes and cost efficiency, and this despite the Norwegian krona depreciating by 1.1% versus the euro in the period. R&C volumes were slightly up, whereas aggregate volumes were slightly down due to the lack of new infrastructure projects. But EBITDA was actually up, driven by higher prices. Swedish krona revaluated by 2.7% versus the Euro average. Turning to page five, Belgium and France accounting for a quarter of our group EBITDA. The domestic cement volumes declined by around 7% in the first nine months due to weak demand. Exports also were down by around 6% due to a physiological market slowdown in France following the conclusion of the Paris Olympics. RMC volumes were stable, driven by continuation of major projects, with different trends between Belgium and France. Aggregate volumes were broadly in line with last year, with growth in Belgium and the Netherlands but a fall in France. EBITDA was up by 3%, including a now-recurring net charge of 2.7 billion due to the fire in the filling system of alternative fuels at the current plant, partially offset by a land sale gain. Recurring EBITDA for this reason would have been higher by 6.9% year-on-year, The cement segment was penalized by lower volumes and higher electricity costs, whereas RMC benefited from higher prices and additional services. Turning to page 6, Turkey accounting for 15% of Group EBITDA. Let's remind ourselves that Turkey has considered hyperinflationary since April 2022. So domestic cement volumes were up by 3% despite ongoing microeconomic challenges and mixed regional trends. Cement clinker and clinker export were up 5%. RMC volumes were slightly down, whereas aggregate volumes were up by 18%. Revenue and EBITDA declined by 1% and 12.9% respectively, penalized mainly by the Turkish Lira devaluation, which was around 23% in the period. With regards to the Kars plant sale, it is in progress, and the antitrust review is still pending. Turning to page seven, North America, accounting for 6% of Group EBITDA. Volumes remain in line. with last year, the residential market continues to be affected by high prices and high market rates with uncertainties regarding the tariff quality. Texas saw a sharp decline, impacted mainly by adverse weather and some gas supply interruptions. The York region experienced a mild drop, influenced by harsh weather, whereas California and Florida volumes recorded a moderate increase. EBITDA was down 4%, mainly due to higher transport and production costs, only partially offset by price increases and cost savings. In the period, the US dollar devaluated by around 2.9% versus the Euro average. Turning to page 8, Asia Pacific accounting for 4% of Group EBITDA. In China, revenue was down 9.6% due to lower selling prices in a context of stagnant demand and delayed effects from government stimulus measures. Volumes were slightly up, and EBITDA was down 26.3% affected by weak pricing despite cost savings. The renminbi devaluated by 3.2% versus the euro. In Malaysia, revenue was up by 3.3%, driven by higher field volumes, mainly clinker and cement exports. Total volumes increased by 16%, mainly due to larger clinker shipments to Australia. Domestic volume, although marginal, declined by 5% due to some delays in major projects and some ongoing trade tensions. Cement exports rose by 7%. EBITDA was down by around 8%, mainly due to US dollar and Australian dollar depreciation, with 80% of our export denominated in those two currencies, despite some cost savings and higher sales volumes. In the period, there was a 4% revaluation of the Malaysian ringgit versus the euro. Turning to the last region, Egypt, page number nine, accounting for 2% of group EBITDA, Revenue declined by 1.2%, mainly due to a significant depreciation of the Egyptian pound, around 17% versus the euro average, with a 15% increase in local currency. White cement volumes were up 6%, mainly driven by exports to the U.S., to Morocco, France, and Italy. Domestic cement volumes were down due to a soft market, high inflation, and currency devaluation and rising energy costs. The reactivation of the second production line, which has been idle for nine years, caused some production disruptions and clinker quality issues, leading to higher third-party purchase costs. These issues were solved by the end of June, but clinker purchases continued in July. EBITDA was done mainly due to currency devaluation and higher operating costs only partially offset by higher export volumes. Two words about our sustainability achievements. On page 10, we continue to receive a number of recognitions on our ESG efforts. We have been for the second consecutive year nominated by sustainability among the ESG industry top rated companies. We score with an A rating in climate change and A- in water for the third consecutive year. We are included since 2025 among Europe climate leaders, and we've been included also in 2025 by in the world most sustainable companies. We also are among, for the second time, CDP supplier engagement leaders, and we have improved the rating of both Sustainalytics and S&P Global in the period. Among the strategic initiatives on page 10, The 220 million grants agreement which was signed with early kid and the new innovation fund for the action project, our CCS project in Denmark. And we launched in the period, the D-card production line and product line in Malaysia. The first low carbon white cement brand with a 12% lower CO2 impact versus ordinary Portland. Turning to the last slide of my presentation, 2025 guidance unchanged with revenue expected to be 1.75 billion plus 6% versus last year EBITDA 415 million, 3% up from last year and net cash 410 million up 120 million from last year. This guidance refers to like-for-like ongoing operations, non-GAAP and excluding any no-recurring items. This ends my presentation, and I would like now to leave the floor for our Chairman Chief Executive, who is happy to take your questions.

This is the operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler Chevro. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good evening. I have three questions. The first one relates to the guidance which you have reiterated for the For a full year at €450 million, we have seen a positive inflection of the EBITDA in Q3, which shows up on an adjusted base in the long gap around 7%. But this guidance implies an even more robust Q4 with a 13% growth versus Q4 last year. In general terms, can you provide a flavor on the reason for this expected acceleration? Second question relates to Turkey. Turkey was weak on margin in the first half, 12% EVDA margin, but the margin doubled to 25% in Q3. Can you elaborate on price versus cost dynamics? I guess that there was an improvement in terms of pricing, which instead was lagging behind the first half, and so this drove margin expansion. Also related to Turkey, can you elaborate on the export opportunities in light of the evolution of the current geopolitical situation? situation. Last question is, as we approach 2026, and I guess you are in budgeting phase, what are the key drivers which could move the middle next year? And how do you expect 2026 in general terms without clearly referring to any precise figure, but just your preliminary flavor on what are the key variables to keep in mind for next year? Thanks.

Good afternoon. Regarding the first question, I mean, we have, as you said, a positive third quarter, and also looking at the first nine months, our two main regions that are Nordics and Belgium, France, are, let me say, performing better, considering also that Belgium is suffered this fire blaze during the second quarter. Regarding the gap that we should fill during the last quarter, as you remember, I already said that we might receive compensation from insurance. And if this covers what we have, let me say, lost in these various, let me say, problems, this might rebalance the situation of the gap. So in terms of euro per tonne to recover by the end of the year, it seems a wide gap. But if you add that some of this, let me say, can be fulfilled by the insurance where we are, let me say, in a positive mode to solve by the end of the year. This might, let me say, let us reach a number that is around what we have declared. And the same for the net financial position.

Regarding the speed of the quantification of this refund, maybe you already saw, said in the last conference call, but just to remind the EuroMillion of this refund.

As you can imagine, we are, let me say, in active talk with the insurance, so I cannot let you say now, but let's say that we are talking about something that is more or less between €20 million. Okay. And besides, let's say, because we have, let me say, the major issue where the fire at the Belgian, let me say, plant, another issue that we suffered in Egypt, and then other minor things around that we, let me say, didn't disclose, but they are on the table with the insurance. So let's say that a number more or less around that we might, let me say, it might fulfill, let me say, the gap that today we might see by the end of the year. Regarding Turkey, as I also said in the first half, the very low EBITDA was because the labor cost compared to last year has been retroactive. So now, let's say, the price is has been aligned to this, let me say, increase in the labor cost, and now, let's say, we are, let me say, recovering the loss of what we have suffered, let's say, mainly in the first quarter. In 2026, as you can imagine, we are now in the middle of the process, but let's say that looking at the last quarter, looking at the two main regions are, let me say, performing better even if not as much better as we forecast. So the recovery is there, but it's not so strong. And also that this year we suffered one-off in Belgium and Egypt, and we expect not to suffer another time. Let's say that we think that next year should be better than this year, I mean, in EBITDA and the next financial position. Regarding the revenues, the revenues, as you can imagine, are deeply impacted by foreign exchange, and especially, we don't know, Egypt and Turkey, what they will reach as a terminal exchange rate by the end of the year. But we are, let me say, positive regarding what we expect for 26 compared to 25.

Thank you.

In terms of export, sorry, export, let's say, is gaining pace towards Syria, but as you can imagine, there is a huge problem of mine and There are, let me say, the roads are full of mines and it's very slow, let me say, the cleaning and the clearing up. And then what we expect if the peace talk will hold is that with Gaza, is that the ban to export from Turkey to Israel should be removed And this is affecting 300,000 tons of our exports in the last couple of years. And this is then, as you can imagine, we have a plant at 50 kilometers that can ship in Egypt cement by land. And cement, I think, for the first few years should arrive in Gaza only by land because they don't have harbor, they don't have terminals, so it will take time. So today, it's even difficult to forecast when, let me say, a final and definitive piece will be, let me say, signed. And also, if we will have one state, two states, and every... So it's very complicated. So today, in our, let me say, forecast for 2026, we don't, let me say, consider any kind of export towards Gaza and even... towards Syria because, let me say, in the process we still see that it's quite slow.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi of Equita.

Good evening. I have a couple of questions. Let's start with Denmark. You basically mentioned some ongoing weakness in residential and the infrastructure is lower than expected. Can you just elaborate on the country entering in 2026? Do you see any, let's say, early sign or catalyst supporting demand for 2026 in Denmark? The second one is on the profitability because if we look at the third quarter, clearly there are some area of strong margin expansion like clearly Denmark and Belgium. Can you give us a sense on how the input costs like fuel and energy are evolving as they should, let's say, be a tailwind at least also in the fourth quarter and in early 2026? And the last one is just a clarification on the 2.7 million euros of non-recurring charges. Does the amount include also the Egyptian issue or not? Thank you.

Starting from the last one, no, it's just on Belgium side because we sold the land and we suffer this fire. So it's just regarding Belgium, not the sum of all the other things. In Denmark, as I said, we are seeing an early phase of recovery It's not, let me say, strong as we expected, but we continue to see this even in 2026. The Fairman project is, let me say, going slower than what we expected, but at the end, they started and they should finish. So what we are not selling now, we will sell later because this is as usual, but sometimes, let me say, with this, let me say, very difficult and complicated infrastructure. This is, let me say, a tunnel that goes under the sea. There are some, let me say, delays, and we expect that even in the first half of next year, these delays will continue, and we might, let me say, speed up in the second half of next year. Do you have any comments?

on the input cost, fuel and energy evolution.

Yes, as you can see, let me say, in the last three years, including this one, the company has been able, let me say, to maintain the same level of or less KBGA, that is around 400 million, and with quantity, especially in the Nordics and in Belgium, that and also revenue in Sweden and Norway. We think, we are aware that today if we just recover this quantity, quantity that we sold in 2022, we should increase the EBITDA of the group between 50 and 60 million euros. So what we expect is that if this recovery of banks will materialize in the next couple of years, we should to recover this gap, because the cost we have on the energy side, the labor cost, the only question mark is usually in Turkey, but is, let me say, balanced usually by the exchange rate full. We don't see major threat in the next two years in the input cost.

Thank you.

The next question is from Igor Sonning of Alfa Value. The next question is from Igor Sonning, Alfa Value, please go ahead.

Yeah, sorry. Thank you for picking up my question. I have a question regarding the pricing power and market dynamic and weakening volume environment. In several key markets like Belgium and China, you mentioned volume decline, but you also referenced price increases. Could you provide more color on the company pricing power in the current macroeconomic environment? And are you able to fully offset cost inflation for price? And in which regions are you seeing the most or least price resilience? Thank you.

Regarding, starting from your last question for next, now, but even next year, where we see some softness in the market, both in price and volume, is China and France. These are the only two regions where we see a slowdown, a mild slowdown. In all the remaining part of the perimeter, we see, as I said, with the same price, just if we keep the price that we have today, not increase the price, but just we recover the volume, we have 50, 60 million of EBITDA to recover just with, because in the last three years, we succeeded in cutting the volume especially the fixed cost, and so now if the recovery will materialize, we should, let me say, benefit just from the volume expansion, not price. But regarding the price, let's say, I don't see, frankly speaking, that with the market that continues to have, let me say, stable, let's say, especially Europe, except for France, that there is a lot of space to increase the price because I believe that also the other major players that have a cost structure close to ours will bet more on the recovery of the volume than increasing the price, frankly speaking. Then in Egypt, I think that especially now that the second line is performing well, we can expand the export base, and also we believe that from next year, Egypt should, let me say, recover and even go towards, I think, the 20 million of EBITDA that we expect with the two-line working at full speed.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Emanuele Negri of Mediobanca.

Yes, good afternoon everybody. Thanks for the presentation and for taking my question. I have a couple. The first one is which kind of effect do you expect in terms of inflation from the incoming implementation of the CBAM regulation? And the second one is if you can give us an update on the project you have in Denmark with Air Liquide. And actually, a third question is a follow-up from a previous one about margins in Denmark and Belgium, which, as mentioned before, had a strong profitability performance in the third quarter. Could you give us an idea of the drivers which led to such a strong performance? Thanks.

The driver, I mean, to the profitability, even in Turkey, the recovery, I mean, on the cost side, there is not an increase in the price. I mean, in Turkey, there's been an alignment of the price. due to the labor cost inflation. On the other, in the other two countries, as you know, Europe now, we are experiencing an inflation that is below 2%, so there is not much space to increase the risk price, more or less everywhere. So it's mainly on the cost side. And... Sibam. will start a sort of a virtual let me say test next year when we will start to calculate eventually the extra cost that we need when something is imported. So this won't affect the balance sheet of anybody. This might, let me say, from 2027, but we might see which are the real flow of special clink that will continue to arrive to Europe, but for sure, looking at the price of the CO2 that is increasing, reaching nearly 82 euro, I think that to import cement, especially from Turkey, Egypt, and North Africa will cost more. And this, let me say, should push a little bit the price higher or will shrink the margin of the importers. So let's see. This is something that is in the hand, especially of the importers that we have here. but mainly where we are located, I mean, in the Nordics and in Belgium and Northern France, there is not so much import. And so I don't think that this sea bump, sea bump I think will affect more the Mediterranean area, especially Italy, South France, Spain, partly Portugal, and less the other countries. The actual update is that we are working, let me say, in our normal agenda. We are just waiting because, as you know, there is part of the project that is in the hands of ourselves and RVKID, and part of, let me say, the project, the infrastructure that is the pipe, and also the viability of... The sequestration, let me say, site is in the hand of the government. And so we are aligning with them because we don't want to finish earlier our investment because we are, let me say, quite sure that we can fulfill the agenda by, let me say, as we say, the 2030. Some delays might arrive, but we think that the delay is in the span of one year maximum, by certain, let me say, authorization to build the pipeline and the harbor terminal.

Okay, thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti of Inteso San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Good evening, everyone. I have a few questions. The first one concerns the volumes. It seems to see a step up in volumes in the third quarter compared to the first half of the year. if you can elaborate a little bit if this is related to phasing of deliveries or if you believe that this is sustainable going forward into the four quarter and in the next year. The second question is related, if you can remember please, what was the negative impact on EBITDA that You had from the two incidents in accidents in 2025, so Belgium fire and the delay in the ramp-up of the Egypt second line. And last one, if you are still very cautious on M&A or if something is changing in the market, considering the amount of cash you expect to have by year-end.

Thank you. Starting from the last one, I mean, in M&A, the scenario is still the same. We are still in a waiting mode, also understanding which plant will, let's say, survive the environmental crisis. transformation. And so just to understand how much money every plant has to put on the plate because you have to deduct to the final price of every plant. So this is the first thing. So far, I think that we haven't seen any, let me say, good opportunity to buy out the other players because the value is mismatching the real value of the expected value in the medium-long term after environmental investment. Regarding what we have seen, as I said, we have seen a recovery in the third quarter, but also this recovery is not so strong as we expected, so we expected that We should see some of this economy continue in 2026. But the macro, let me say, situation all around Europe, I think, is quite clear. So I don't forecast a very strong recovery now. And France is in a political mess, as you can imagine. So our forecast is just linked to the exchange rates from the central bank that continue to be lowered. But the impact I think is limited now because let's say I think we are reaching a sort of plateau in the rates. I don't expect that especially in Europe we might see another 50 or 75 basis points during next year. So let's say that, as I said, in terms of volume, we have lost in the last two and a half years nearly 50, 60 million of value ADBA. So just to go back to that volume is just important. We don't think that in next year we can recover this gap. But even if we take, I think, two or three years, it's still positive. As I said, we don't see major threats from the cost side. The other question. Yes, I mean, the two major, let me say, issues that we have is more or less 8 million euros. But considering that besides these are the direct impact, but as you can imagine, so why then we will reach around 20 because when you use this, let me say, especially in Belgium, the issue of not producing, let me say, clinker, buying clinker from outside even in Egypt affect also the CO2. We also had to be compensated on the CO2 that we used, let me say, to fulfill, let me say, this issue. And the direct impact is 8 million because this is what we have suffered so far until the third quarter. But let me say, in terms of magnitude, we expect that that can be more because of this, let me say, the CO2. and other minor, let me say, issues that affected the perimeter, especially in Europe.

Thank you.

Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay, so thank you very much for your interesting challenge here, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day and evening. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Have a nice evening. Bye-bye. Bye.