Cemetir Holding

Good afternoon, this is the Coral School Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Chairman's Year Preliminary Results 2025 and 2026-2028 Industrial Plan Update. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Marco Maria Bianconi, chief M&A and IR officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good evening, everybody, and welcome to Chairman Tiroldi in 2025 results presentation and the industrial plan updates. This is Marco Bianconi speaking. I'm here with our chairman and chief executive, Francesco Paltagirone.

Good afternoon.

who is happy to take your question at the end of my short presentation. So going to the presentation deck on page five, we have highlights of the preliminary results 2025. Revenue reached 1.639 billion euro minus 2.8% year on year. Non-GAAP revenue was flat at 1.644 billion. there was a 97 million Euro negative impact from currency depreciation, mainly Turkish Lira versus the Euro. Cement volumes were up by 3.1% in Turkey in particular, but also Egypt, Asia Pacific, and some volume reductions in Nordic and Baltic and Belgium. Radimix volumes were down by 4.8% due to negative performance in Turkey, Denmark, and Belgium, whereas aggregate volumes were up 3.4%. EBITDA reached €439.5 million, up almost 8% year-on-year. Non-GAAP EBITDA was €460.2 million, up 15.3% year-on-year. This figure includes €52 million of net non-recurring gains, of which the major items are €36 million capital gain from disposals and €19.7 million of insurance proceeds for the fire at Grantland in Belgium. 2024 figures include also €4.4 million charges non-recurring non-gaffi vitae excluding both non-recurring items, was €408.2 million, up 1.1%. Also on EBITDA, there was almost a €21 million negative FX impact due to translation, mainly from Turkish Lira into Euro. Profit before tax was €286.3 million, up 0.5%. Non-GAAP profit before tax, €325 million, up 10%. Net cash position at the end of the year was €465.1 million, an improvement of €174.6 million year-on-year, including €43.5 million of dividends by the parent company, €9 million of dividends to third parties, and €51 million proceeds from the disposals of Carl Cementos. On page six, you can find our 2026 guidance. We expect for this year a revenue up around 5% to 1.7 billion on a pro forma basis, excluding the contribution of Cars Cimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025. We also expect an EBITDA progression between 0 and 5% to a range between 400 and 420 million euro for the year, and a net cash position at year end up by 125 million euro to 590 million. This is after capex of around 128 million euro. This guidance refers to like-for-like ongoing operations, non-GAAP, and excluding any extraordinary items. And please bear in mind that the starting figures is pro forma and is restated, excluding the contribution of CART Cimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025. Now moving to the industrial plan updates. Quickly on page eight, the five strategic pillars are unchanged. Just one highlight about sustainability. We continue to implement our CCS project in Denmark. We are investing in value chain circularity and a number of renewable energy projects. As far as competitiveness, we are streamlining and standardizing all group processes. In terms of innovation, we are applying artificial intelligence to business processes, and we are working on widening our portfolio by including an increasing number of low-carbon cement and other value-added solutions. As far as growth and positioning, we want to keep reinforcing our vertical integrated model in the three key countries, regions, Nordics, Belgium, and Turkey. And we want to keep our global white cement leadership. And we want to be opportunistic on M&A if and when the opportunity arise. We also are investing on our trading business and investing for further development there. As far as people in safety, we are implementing a zero-accident program, fostering a high-performance culture focused on safety. And we are attracting talent focusing on sustainability and innovation. Moving to page nine, just a few highlights regarding the key themes and trends in our industry, which we are addressing in our industrial plan, the first being climate change and decarbonization. There is a trend towards more stringent CO2 and new building regulations across Europe for sure, but a number of countries. There are a number of technological solutions for net zero, like CCS, which we are implementing. And there is increasing demand for low-carbon products, which we are addressing through our future SEM and DCAR product ranges. As far as urbanization and infrastructure gap, we see this trend of population growth and urban migration. There is an increased public-private infrastructure spending. Therefore, we believe there is significant pent-up demand for our products. As far as resource efficiency and circular economy, we are clearly fighting the rising energy and raw material cost. We are increasingly using alternative fuels and recycled materials, and we are embracing circularity in every aspect. The last one being innovation, digitalization, and efficiency. We believe that there is a trend towards new and more efficient building methods, and there's clearly a trend towards a reduced content of clinker into cement and reduced content of cement in concrete. Moving to page 10, these are our scope one emissions 2030 decarbonization targets. As you can see, we are targeting a 42% reduction in gray cement emissions per ton of cement equivalent versus the 2020 baseline. And this is an objective that is beyond the taxonomy level. As far as wet cement, the reduction is 20% versus 2020. And again, you can see the reduction in 2030 to 730 kilograms per ton of cement equivalent. Turning page to 11, we have the actual project slide, just to provide you some more information regarding this project. As you know, this is a pioneering project, one of the largest onshore systems multistream in Europe, meaning that it's processing emissions for both white and gray cement through a single operating unit. Thanks to this proprietary innovative technology, RBKID, our technology partner, will capture, purify, liquefy approximately 95% of the CO2 emitted by the cement kilns. This project targets 1.5 million tons of CO2 to be captured annually. We have been awarded a 220 million euro grant by the European Innovation Fund. We expect this project to be operational from 2030, according to the timing of the new logistic infrastructure, which depends on third-party responsibility. Moving on to the awards on page 12, as you can see, we have a continued ESG commitment. We have been awarded during 2025 with a number of recognitions. CDP included Charmentier in the A-list. For the second time, we have been awarded by Statista and Financial Times. We've been appointed as one of Europe's climate leaders. And in June 25, Chemity was also included in the time ranking of the world's 500 most sustainable companies. And you can see underneath the table where you can see the progression in the rating from main agencies on our company. On page 13, just a flash regarding innovation, we continue to invest in transition towards lower carbon products. We have solution for low-carbon cement and solutions for low-carbon concrete. In the low-carbon cements, we are adopting the FutureSem technology, which sees up to 30% of CO2, and clearly there is a progressive shift to blended cement with lower carbon footprints in all regions. leveraging on additional SCM materials and limestone. There is a global expansion of the DCARB white cement family, which is reducing emissions by around 15%. And we're providing transparency and credibility on this product through an EPD declaration showing environmental footprint and life cycle impact. As far as concrete is concerned, we are promoting Sustainable Ready Mix Concrete through Circularity and Low-Carbon Cements. We have a new low-carbon range in Denmark, Norway, called Universo. We're also launching Seagreen range in Belgium and France. And we also are extensively using low-carbon concrete in Turkey, where we are front runners. A few slides regarding the financials on the industrial plan on slide 15. You can see the main highlights. Those figures exclude the intensification of geopolitical tension and any extraordinary event, of course. And you can see that the revenue we're targeting is 1.95 billion by 2028, which implies a compounded annual growth rate of 6% to 7% from a base pro forma of 1.6 billion. Again, the pro forma. is calculated by excluding the contribution of Castimento, which was sold on December the 1st, 2025. As far as EBITDA, we are targeting a 4.7% compounded EBITDA growth in the three years, which will lead us to target €460 million of EBITDA with an EBITDA margin of around 23.6%. The net cash position is clearly on The same perimeter is going to grow by 330 million euro from 465 to around 800 million by 2028 year-end. Just the last couple of slides on page 16, a few details about the targets. As I mentioned, the revenue compounded growth rate in the period is based on a moderate increase in cement volumes in the main geographies, namely Nordic and Baltic, where we expect a residential construction improvement from 2027, a higher export volume from Egypt, where both operating lines will be running, and an improved trading in Belgium, China, and Malaysia. partly offset by lower volumes in Turkey in 2026, both because of the disposal of car cemento and also for trading reasons. Volumes compounded growth of 2% to 3% for cement and 1% for both RMC and aggregates. We expect prices to be generally in line with local inflation, particularly in Turkey, reflecting higher energy raw materials CO2 costs. As far as EBITDA, we've already touched upon the growth which we expect in every region with the exception of Turkey. We also note the increase that we expect in raw material cost, electricity, and certain fuels. And there will be some negative impact from currency volatility, namely Turkish Lira and Egyptian Pound. We are on average short 130,000 tons of CO2, including a step up in 2027 due to lower free allowances at our European plants. The margin will be mean reverting slightly to what we think is a long-term average. The maintenance and expansion CapEx is within the industry norms between 5% and 6%, around 129 million euros per year, with a cumulative CapEx of 386 million, of which 77 for sustainability initiatives, including 16 million for the Axion project in 2026. Please bear in mind that Axion Net CapEx group share from 2027 will be around €120 million in the following three years. The profile of net cash out will depend on the timing of the logistic infrastructure execution, which is a third-party responsibility. Please note also, lastly, that cumulative free cash flow generation will be around €330 million with a progressive dividend payment in the range between €20 and 25%. This leads me to the last slide, which is the CAPEX highlights. As I said, 386 cumulative investments, of which 77 sustainability and 16 for CCS. The main projects are Axion in Denmark, wind turbines in Belgium, facility upgrades for future SAM, natural gas transition in Aalborg and Goran. This ends my presentation, and I leave the floor to Mr. Castagirone, who is happy to take your question. Thank you very much.

Thank you. This is the course call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Wim Host of KBC Securities.

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I would have three questions, please. The first one is on the CBAM regulation. is that having any impact on your businesses and markets? Can you maybe comment on that? The second question would be on Egypt. You opened the second line last year. Can you explain us how that is driving growth in that market and also what the profitability impact of that growth? I think you mentioned in the industrial plan that you see a pickup in volumes in Egypt, so a bit of more clarity or granularity on that would also be helpful. And then a third question from my side would be on M&A. In the industrial plan slide there is also mentioning that M&A is still a possibility. I think in the past you were a bit cautious to do M&A, looking at all the regulatory changes on the environment, etc. Is that attitude now changing or are you still maintaining an organic growth for the short term? Those are the questions. Thank you.

Thank you for your question. The first one about CBAM, so far, frankly speaking, we haven't seen a lot, especially because in the northern country and northern Europe, the weather has been so bad that especially, as you can imagine, during the last part of the year and in the first part, you use the inventory that has been built in the previous quarter. So now, I think, from the moment that the weather, the bad weather hit the business area, between 10% and 20%. It is difficult to evaluate if CBAM in place have, let me say, health or not the business. So we need a few weeks or a couple of months, probably the first quarter, the first half of the year to understand better how it is working. In Egypt, we expect that this year the problem that we suffered last year for qualities has already been resolved, and we expect that we increase our sales, especially to the United States. The El Arish port is already working. For the first time, we sent a vessel of 35,000 tons directly to the States, and so we expect that to increase the profitability of the Egypt that nearly 50, 60% this year should be around the 18 million of the ABDA. Regarding M&A, we have the same, let me say, attitude. We would like to expand our business and perimeter. I know that especially in the latest weeks there has been rumors about, let me say, possible change and enhancement of the CO2 framework. This framework has been built in the last 20 years. I don't think that in a few months or weeks can be, let me say, amended or changed. Probably, I think that because I expect more questions on this, let me say, item, that Europe realized that has a competitive gap on, for sure, electric vehicles against China. And we have seen Stellantis, what I've done a few days ago, in terms of write-offs. and the competitors from Eastern Asia are eating up their market, especially now in Germany, and they are suffering. The second thing, the second issue is about the energy production. You know that in the last few years, most, a lot of coal-fired plant has been, let me say, announced the phase out, I think that the world and especially Europe and United States will need more energy. So there will be more emission. The issues today I don't think is that to swap back from let me say green emission to let me say gray emission. Is that probably we need more energy and in a short period of time more energy can come only from fire coal plants. and this will increase the emissions. So probably a release on certain level of, let me say, quotas can help more energy production. I don't think, frankly speaking, that after EU has poured the billions and billions in grants, especially in cement and steel, will now revert its, let me say, attitude. You know, even if the phase out of certain, let me say, critical threshold in CO2 emission will not, let me say, change the attitude that in this sector, I can say that especially from the bigger competitor is quite constructive because, we are starting to implement, let me say, the technology to produce green cement probably in the next five years. But today, except as you all know, a small plant in Norway owned by Heidelberg, in the next five years, no one will produce low-carbon cement. So I don't know how this can, let me say, affect the system or the balance sheet of the cement layer in the next five years. Then if we will have more, let me say, probably in the phase two, I mean after 2035 to 2050, to have, let me say, a more comfortable, let me say, path to arrive to zero cement, probably this can help. But now I don't think, this is my personal attitude that, let me say, they want to stop or to slow down because compared to United States, for example, as you know, 90% or more or less, 90% of the cement in the United States is owned by European players and they can transfer the technology from Europe to the United States. That is the only, I think, way because usually we take the technology from the United States and we bring it to Europe. I don't think that the cement sector that today is at the edge of this technical shift should, let me say, stop or Europe should push to stop. But let's say it. We are at the very beginning. They have started to talk about enhancement of the framework, but probably we have to wait June or July to understand which will be, let me say, the future framework for CO2 emissions.

Okay, very helpful. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni of Kepler Chevreux.

Yes, thank you and good evening. I have some questions. The first one is related to Axion. What you are writing in your press release on Axion is that in 2026 you will expand 60 million of CapEx, but the sum in terms of capex has increased from 100 to 100 million now you are guiding if i'm right 90 million to 100 now it has become 120 million and above all you are also saying that the 2027 28 capex figure are not including axion because you are waiting these let's say higher visibility or details on the third party public and private entities capex for the logistics and storage and so on So what is at stake here? You have not put the CAPEX because you don't know the timing. You have not put the CAPEX because you don't know exactly if they will fulfill this investment. Help us understand what is at stake here in terms of your decision not to put this CAPEX in your CAPEX plan. Then regulation on CO2, second question you have partly answered. clearly is a hot topic now because the market is reasoning about the potential impact of this revision which so far has been just leaked by press sources by the way and so I would say this relates the phase out of free allocation which could be postponed this relates the cap and other technicalities so my question is in case this revision is going to prove true would you enter a sort of wait and see and stand by stance on your decarbonization project or absolutely not you are in any case committed to go ahead according to your previous plan. Third question, if I may, is price premium for grease cement. There is a debate in the market. You have just said that currently only ideal material is selling a small quantity compared to the overall market of green cement. So how can we ensure that the green cement will enjoy a good price in premium or not in a mass market situation? because there are various versions here. Somebody is saying that absolutely this is very unlikely, okay, that the market will be ready to pay a decent premium, okay, or a big premium, and other sources which, for example, either the material clearly are more constructive.

How big part of the equation of the return is price premiumness or not?

What's your view? So, I mean, it's very early days, so I think it's very difficult to provide an answer to this, but maybe you have a view. Last is Belgium, if I may, where we are on the European grant. So I am understanding that you could achieve a grant in Belgium maybe this year or next year. And also, given that it's not a coastal plant, differently from Aalborg, and it's also a slightly smaller plant, in terms of return and cost to do the carbon capture and storage, how it differs from Aalborg? Thanks.

So let's start with the first action project. So we wanted to put in what is already approved by our board as for, let me say, investment. And for sure, we have put this around 17 million because the electric line and transformer that will allow the the plant to ask for more energy after the CCS implementation. Regarding the remaining 120, because as you can imagine, this is a new technology, we are talking about contracts that, let me say, will, or contractors that will supply material four or five years, and so there is also the review in inflation, and you know that especially the metals, the price of metals material are increasing. So our, let me say, forecast of 100, we have rounded to 120. I think it's a minor adjustment. And we are going to put this 120, that is roughly 30 million per year for the three or four years, depending on when we will have and the complete, let me say, scenario where we will be aware of the whole scenario because besides our investment in the plant together with EarlyKid, we need to have the connection with the pipeline that is built by a public company, EBITDA, and then we also, we need the final certification of the storage area. And this will arrive between the first half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. So if there are delays, I think we need to postpone these 120 million of investments. So for this reason, we haven't put so far, we just, let me say, underline that The costs are there, but we think that probably, frankly speaking, because if we have to wait the half of 2027, we will start to spend in 2028, as earlier. So it's the last year of this industrial plan. And as you can imagine, I don't think that we are going to spend all the 120 million in one year. So This is the reason why we prefer to have this kind of approach. The second question is about the green cement. I mean, today, as I said, there is no green cement availability except for a small quantity because even in Norway, they are in a ramp up. So the plant is, let me say, the plant should produced 400,000 tons of green cement. Today, from my learning, we are around half because there is a ramp up and this is usual. So today there is no premium price and probably we are already asked by the Norwegian government to buy because we produce, as you know, raping mix in Norway and we buy cement and they are, let me say, obliged the customer to use this cement, especially for public works. So we will buy some small quantities of this green cement made by Heidelberg in Norway, but let's say I think that in the next five years, this kind of, let me say, mandatory usage of this cement should be, let me say, enlarged, especially in the Nordic countries because most of the cement, green cement production will be there. So I am aware because I had recently direct talk with the Danish government that especially after the Greenland issue with the United States, they are not, let me say, they don't want, let me say, to change their approach, especially for this Green Deal, because somebody in USA are telling exactly the opposite. So I don't know, I am, let me say, an interpreter, but let's say I am, just 10 days ago, I could, let me say, realize that there is a strong willingness to go forward, and also we have applied for the Danish fund that should supply another branch of grant for this project, but we will be aware of the final result of this after Easter. So when we will have the grant, we already have received the grant from the European Union, as I said, the risk, the execution risk for this project should be very limited, considering also that we are the only producer in Denmark, and so I don't think that other, let me say, we are other players that can continue to sell cement, let me say, that won't be greener, let me say. On CCB, The project is more or less the same. The only difference is that in Belgium there is not onshore storage. Today the design of the project will see that we ship the CO2 by pipeline that has to be built to the of one port in Belgium and then transferred by ship to the Aalborg port and then injected in the same storage area of Aalborg. For sure I expect that before because we have, let me say, at last nearly two years of delay compared to Aalborg that the price should be lower and even the size. We have applied for a grant for Belgium last year. We were, let me say, we were qualified, but they didn't have, let me say, enough funds. So we expect, we don't have to submit another time. We just need that they refinance, let me say, and they should refinance for our sector and for other sectors this year, so we expect that this year, probably October, November, we should have, let me say, some news. I don't know if I missed some questions.

No, thanks. Just a short one. What is the fee which you are going to pay to EarlyKid? Because EarlyKid is going to do most of the capex, no? I mean, I don't want to know a million euros, but I think they are doing most of the capital, so they will want to be remunerated, no? Can you confirm that?

Yes. I cannot say this now, because it also depends on the time frame. They can have, as usual, as you can imagine, every kind of project, a sort of premium if they go faster, if they... Because the technology... is provided by them. It's not provided by us. So there is also a sort of level of satisfaction between, I don't know, I can say between 90% of capture and 100%. So it depends where we will land at the end with the real capture of CO2 between 90% and 100%. So frankly speaking, it's too early now. We all It also depends because the grant that we should receive from the Danish government should help to, let me say, build the right, let me say, cost formula for this cement.

Thank you.

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca.

Yes, good evening to everybody. I have three questions. The first one is just a follow-up on the Axiom project. Just to understand better, you mentioned the possibility to get this Danish fund. Is it something that is going to help on the CAPEX or on the OPEX side of the Axiom project? This is the first question. The second question is on, let's say, the 30 outlook. So if I understood well, you mentioned several reasons on top of the change perimeter, why 30 is going to have a negative contribution in the BDA in 2026. Can you give us an idea of what are, let's say, the moving parts, considering that the low end of your EBITDA guidance is basically assuming zero growth. So which kind, let's say, of output do you see? Because you also mentioned this post-earthquake demand that is going to normalize in Turkey this year. So this is the second question. And the third one is just a comment on, let's say, these steep decline in CO2 prices we saw over the last month. Let's say maybe this change into CO2 prices, this decline, may change your commercial approach to the era from a pricing standpoint, or let's say your price listing in a certain way pegged a little bit to CO2 prices. So just understand that how you are going to manage this change into this year to price outlook. Thanks.

Aldenisch Fund is a fund that will supply us, let me say, a balancing from higher energy cost and will be on OPEX and will last 15 years starting 2030. So it will last until 2045 and should contribute to lower and balance the extra costs for energy. But we don't know how much will be because we will know in April. The second question is about this year forecast. As I said, the perimeter is a bit very, it changed just a matter of one and a half percent. We were slightly positive in November when we built this industrial plant, but today, after six weeks of very harsh winter, it's difficult to expect that, let's say, we can do better because, let's say, we expected that until the end of February, there will be, let me say, a lower output in Scandinavia, in Turkey, and partly also in Northern Europe. But this affects the oil market. For sure, this will be recovered, but in a couple of months, this is the worst winter in the last 15 years in the Nordics. Regarding your last question about Declining of the price, this is, I think, is not affecting because let's say we pass the cost as it is on monthly basis on an average to the customer. So if it increase, the price will increase. If it will decrease, let me say we will decrease. So it's like VAT, right? So something that we collect and we give back.

Okay, and this is something, let's say, this is a revision, like a monthly revision you do, or it is, let's say, something you trigger.

Just understand, because as I said again... No, no, we charge the customer with a formula on a monthly basis.

Okay, is this formula used, let's say, in all your countries, or we are referring, I don't know, to all the countries, let's say, except for, I don't know, Turkey, Egypt, just understand the perimeter of this formula.

We chart this in the country where, let me say, in France, Belgium, and Scandinavia, yes, we use this formula. But this, I think, is the most widespread formula used by also other competitors. Mm-hmm. Nobody wants to hedge or to leverage on CO2. I mean, it's a tax.

Okay, okay. It's a reverted tax as it is. Okay, thanks a lot.

The next question is from Igor Sonin of Alpha Value.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for picking my questions. For 2026 and 2028, your plan assumes higher raw material, electricity and fuel costs. Is it possible to provide EBITDA sensitivity to change in energy and raw material costs or at least some colors or how we could think about it? Like what will be the most costly? raw materials, what would be the most expensive higher cost which we can foresee in our estimations? Thank you.

Let's say that in our forecast, we put, let me say, an increase, but we are edged at 75% in the energy, both petcoke and gas, and also in and coal. So, and the electricity, sorry. We are, let me say, covered in full mostly this year, and as I said, nearly 75%, 27 and 28. So, let's say that if the price increases, probably we won't suffer anything, maybe anything meaningful and the same if the price will be lower, our cost structure will remain flat. So this is when you enter. So we don't expect, but most of this uncertainty mainly is the exchange rate against dollar because you pay petco with dollars and also in the electricity, it seems that the peak of 2022 now has been, let me say, fully digested and the price curves, I mean, for the next two or three. Let's say that today some suppliers are even open to make contracts that can last 10 or 15 years flat, as you can let me say. So I don't think that cost inflation should hamper our industrial plant, frankly speaking.

Okay, thank you very much for your answer.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your cell phone. The next question is from Bruno Permutti of Bancaimi.

Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask something about the guidance you gave of 6-7% Revenue Chagra for 2006-2028. On the recovery that you expect in the Nordic and Baltic from 2027. Is there something specific that you are thinking of in terms of infrastructure projects that will accelerate in that period? So if you can elaborate a little bit on that. And as for Turkey, beyond 2026, What is the outlook you have in mind? Do you believe that there will be an increasing demand also for export from Turkey and that this could create some opportunity also for the domestic market? It is a realistic opportunity. option. And lastly, on the prices, what is the outlook you see in the short term for 2026, if you see some price pressure somewhere? Thank you.

Starting from the last one, the only place where today we see some mild price pressure is just in China. because of the economic environment. But let's say we are in white cement, and usually, let me say, this is not so, let me say, big. But on the other geographies, it seems that the framework is constructive. I mean, stable with a mild . Turkey after 2026, as you can imagine, Turkey is the first supplier of the Mediterranean area, and as we have already shared with you a few times, is the first candidate to supply reconstruction in Ukraine, already started in Syria, and partly in Gaza Strip. For sure, we are in the latest phases of Let me say that the earthquake is of traction, but it's difficult to have an agenda on what will happen in Ukraine and what will happen even in Iran, because Iran is the neighbor, so we don't know which is the outcome there. But also, Syria is the only country that is really, let me say, start to have an inflow of and also on Gaza Strip, you are aware that the talks are open and we don't know, so it's difficult to say that we might see. We haven't considered in our industrial plan, we are conservative, but we think that this, let me say, should build up in the next years for sure. And Turkey is, let me say, the only candidate because of its capacity and is surrounded by this big possibility to export cement. Nordic and Baltic, I mean, mainly, let me say, in the last three years, like most players, I mean, from France to Nordics, we are experiencing, let me say, lower volume, especially for macro reasons. So we expect, because the rates are lower, besides now that for sure, I think, as I said, the first quarter and the first half will be hit by the, let me say, atmospheric issues that the demand should, let me say, broaden. So there are no particular... One reason also because this year, I mean, we are expecting, let me say, flat EBITDA compared to last year is because, let me say, the Furman project is, the delay on the project is growing. Probably now, I mean, because it's the Danish government, they expect a two-year delay. That is not two years from the start, but let me say that these projects are developing slowly. So we have lowered for this year nearly 30, 40% of the quantity that will go to this project, but for sure then we will have another two years more at the end. These are, let me say, our expectations, but are mainly the macro environment, the increasing in quantities.

Thank you.

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The next question is from Carlo Maritano of Intermonte.

Hi, good evening, everyone. I just have one question on the net cash guidance for 2028. So if I start from your expectation from 2026, It seems that there is only 100 million euros per year of cash generation in the later years of your business plan. So I was wondering what is driving this cautiousness and if this target includes the capital that is not included in the other slides. So just understand what are the building blocks of this guidance. Thank you.

Yes, Carlo. In fact, the cumulative cash flow we are expecting is $330 million in three years, so it's about $110 million of free cash flow per year. Please bear in mind that this is after the payment of a progressive dividend, which we expect to grow in line with the earnings with a dividend payout ratio of 20% to 25%. So these are clearly, I mean, it's not particularly conservative. I think it's a realistic scenario, and I think it's broadly in line with the historical cash generation of the companies. It's north of 100 million a year, and it clearly includes the expected capex that we earmarked in the slides, which is 309 million of cash maintenance capex and 77 million of sustainability capex cumulative in the 26-28 period. Okay, thank you.

Sure.

For any further questions, please press star and 1. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay, so thank you very much for your interest in Chairman Tirolding, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day. Thank you. Good evening. Bye-bye.