Eregli Demir Celik Un/Adr

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Konstantinos, your conference call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Ergermil conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the third quarter 2024 financial results. All participants will be listening only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. Please note Ergli Demir Celik Fabrikalari may, when necessary, make written or verbal announcements about forward-looking information, expectations, estimates, targets, assessments and opinions. Erdemir has made the necessary arrangements about the amounts and results of such information through its disclosure policy and has shared such policy with the public through the Erdemir website in accordance with the Capital Markets Board regulations. As stated in related policy, information contained in forward-looking statements, whether verbal or written, should not include unrealistic assumptions or forecasts. It should be noted that actual results could materially differ from estimates taking into account the fact that they are not based on historical facts but are driven from expectations, beliefs, plans, targets and other factors which are beyond the control of our company. As a result, As a result, forward-looking statements should not be fully trusted or taken as granted. Forward-looking statements should be considered valid only considering the conditions prevailing at the time of the announcement. In cases where it is understood that forward-looking statements are no longer achievable, such matter will be announced to the public and the statement will be revised. However, the decision to make a revision is a result of subjective evaluation. Therefore, it should be noted that when a party is coming to a judgment based on estimates and forward-looking statements, our company may not have made a revision at that particular time. Our company makes no commitment to make regular revisions which would fully cover changes in every parameter. New factors may arise in the future which may not be possible to foresee at this moment in time. And now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Idil Onay Ergin, Investor Relations Director. Ms. Ergin, you may now proceed.

Thank you very much, Constantino. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our conference call and webcast of Erdemir for the third quarter of 2024. First of all, I will go through our master presentation, which you can find on our website, and you can also follow it through the webcast. Then at the end of this presentation there is going to be a Q&A session as usual. So our presentation consists two sections as you already know. The first one is the market overview and then the financial results. So let's start with the commodity prices. On page 3 you will see the prices of fuel related commodities and HRT. Let's take a look at Coaching Call, Arvenor, Scrap and HIP prices. During the first nine months of the year, we have seen a downward pressure on commodity markets due to concerns about the demand output in China, multiple macroeconomic uncertainties and high inventories. However, as of September, the Chinese government's announcement of the stimulus package created an optimistic atmosphere in the market. Coca-Cola prices were around $324 per ton at the beginning of the year, and then Coca-Cola, which fell as low as $180 per ton in September, is currently around $202 per ton. The decline in prices was driven by production decrease in China during the third quarter, coupled with weak demand for caulking coal. The impact of stimulus package announced in China has led to an increased appetite for production and an upward movement was observed in caulking coal prices again due to the increase in demand. Ayrun Or, which was around $140 per ton, at the beginning of the year fell to $89 in September as Chinese steel producers made long-term production cuts due to heavy margin losses and high inventories. Currently, Ivanor is fluctuating between $100-$105 a ton on the optimism of the announced stimulus measures despite weak demand conditions. The scrap price, which was around $413 per ton at the beginning of the year, is currently at $372. In Europe, which is Turkey's largest scrap supplier, scrap purchases have been lower than usual due to weak end-product orders leading scrap suppliers to lower their prices. The stimulus announcements made by Chinese government did not fully support the global scrap market. However, marginal declines in scrap prices are not expected due to the decline in scrap supply and seasonality. On the bottom right, we show HRT prices in Black Sea, China, and South Europe. In the first quarter of the year, the lowest price levels in Chinese exports were seen after the pandemic. China has reached the highest export damage since 2016 with aggressive pricing amid a decline in domestic consumption and high supply. This situation has disrupted global pricing balances and measures are being taken urgently against China worldwide. Recently, Turkey finalized an anti-dumping investigation regarding HRT products originating from China, Russia, Japan and India and has decided to impose duties. This result is expected to have a positive impact on Q1 2025 and beyond. Aside from HRC, anti-dumping investigations launched regarding imports of heavy plates and thin plates are expected to be completed within 2025 with results anticipated to positively impact the Turkish steel sector. In Europe, the current high inventory levels are negatively impacting restocking activities, while weak end-user demand is putting pressure on dragging activities. On page 4, you will see the production, consumption, exports and imports figures of 30 steel markets for the 8 months of 2024. In the 8-month period, Turkish steel production increased by approximately 12% compared to the same period last year, with the rice primarily driven by flat steel production. Similar to production, approximately 75% of the increase in Turkish steel exports stems from flat products. During the 8-month period, Turkish flat steel exports increased by 90% to 4 million tons. On the consumption side, steel consumption decreased by 5% compared to the previous year. The decline in consumption can be attributable to the high base effect of last year's earthquake-induced surge. In January-August 2024 period, total steel imports decreased by 13% while flat imports also decreased by 17% to 5.5 million tons.

So let's take a look at the financial results and the operational metrics.

On page 6, you will see the brief summary of our first 9 months results. We achieved $4.6 billion revenue and we generated $572 million EBITDA and $335 million net profit. On page 7, you will see the operational indicators of our company. We continued our production during the first 9 months of 2024 with high capacity utilization ratios achieving a liquid steel production of 6.7 million tons. Our crude steel capacity utilization ratio, which stood at 92%, is significantly above both the world and country averages. The results achieved in the first nine months for sales and production are within our circle averages. We aim to achieve sales of approximately 8 million tons in 2024. So let's take a look at the segmental breakdown of domestic sales and export volumes in page 8. As you can see from the pie chart, there has been a slight change between sectors. Due to the effects of market and demand conditions when we compare to last year's breakdown, there has been a transition from the pipeline profile to general manufacturing and auto on a percentage basis. We see a similar situation in the long products. However, the fact that systemic production stopped for almost three months, which was affected by the earthquake in the first quarter of last year, is also effective in these numbers. In the nine-month period, exports account for 20% of our sales. In addition to the low base effects caused by the earthquake last year, the moderate recovery in global trade has contributed to our export damage approaching pre-earthquake level. On page 9, you can find breakdown of revenue for domestic and export sales. 79% of the revenue comes from domestic sales in line with the domestic volume. The average sales prices for flat and long steel in third quarter declined compared to the previous quarter as the rapid price declines in China were reflected globally. We expect that the prices will be supported by the incentives that support consumption in China and HR trans-dumping duties in the coming period. We generated $99 EBITDA per ton in the first nine months. In 2024, we expect to see between $80 to $90 per ton due to the slowdown in both World Economy and Steel Factory. Despite import pressure in the domestic market, we achieved to generate $572 million EBITDA and $335 billion net profit in the first nine months. On page 10, you can see how we reached to net profit from EBITDA. One of the largest items was depreciation, which was $191 million in nine months. The other major item in this chart was financial expenses. Net interest expense was $133 million in nine months. The majority of this interest expense arises from financing ongoing investments. Tax income was $41 million due to deferred tax income and after the other expenses, net profit was $335 million. The additional insurance income accrues of $105 million recorded as income in the first half is not included in evicted calculation since it is a one-off adjustment. While calculating the net profit, $105 million of the $111 million US dollar consolidation classification arrived from additional insurance income accruals. As you all remember, after the production halt at İstener Plant due to the earthquake in February last year, A total of $205 million advance payment was collected from the insurance companies last year and this year. It is expected that the final amount will be collected before the year end. In the graph below, you can see EBITDA to change in cash reach. Working capital increase due to inventories. Also, we spend around $769 million to capital expenditures in nine months.

This amount also includes advance payment for the capital expenditures as well.

And as you will see the difference between the CapEx page in page 13 and this one. On page 11, you will see historical trend of financial borrowings and netbets. When we look at the first nine months of 2024, our net working capital increased compared to 2023 due to raw material procurement. Our netbet position was $2.1 billion at the end of September. Due to the ongoing capital expenditures, the net-set EBITDA ratio was 2.8 multiplied. Slide 12 represents our cost of sales breakdown. The use of imported semi-finished products increased due to the halt of production at İstemir for three months due to the earthquake in 2023. As our own slab production returned to normal level in the first nine months of this year, the share of iron ore and pallets in our cost structure increased. Therefore, imported semi-finished products, which are included in other items, was decreased. Page 13 represents the historical capital expenditures. Total capex is $80 million in nine months. When we add the advance payments of $89 million to the figure, we reach the investment expenditure of $769 million. We expect that CAPEX will reach up to $1 billion again in 2024 with maintenance and other ongoing investments. On page 14, Just as a reminder, we are very proud to announce our net zero roadmap in January this year. We aim to reduce carbon emissions per ton by 25% by 2030, 40% by 2040, and achieve net zero emissions by 2050 compared to the base year of 2022. We plan to spend $3.2 billion for transformational investment of Erdemir and İstemir by the end of 2030. 78% of the $3.2 billion investment will be sourced externally, utilizing easily accessible financial resources for the green transformation. Erdemir and İstemiz Kursu capacity will reach 30 million songs by 2030. Now we may continue with the Q&A session. I will be delighted to answer your questions. Thank you for listening.

Ladies and gentlemen, Atistan will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, we press star followed by one on the telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue then you may press star and 2. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. One moment for the first question please. The first question comes from the line of Ferclo Jason with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, Idil. Merhaba, and thank you for the presentation today. Two fairly simple questions from me. First, in terms of steel production for the year, so you're guiding to about 8 million tonnes. That does imply quite a big step up as we come into the fourth quarter. So I just wanted to confirm that you're happy with that number and that you do expect steel production to increase as we come into the fourth quarter. And then the second one is just on EBITDA per ton. You've given some helpful guidance previously on EBITDA per ton. And given the trading environment, how are you thinking about EBITDA per ton for the rest of the year from here?

Hi Jason. So your first question, yes, we guided 8 million tons sales for the whole year. Actually, we already sold, we can say almost 6 million tons in 9 months. So 2 million or about 2 million tons is reasonable. for our companies mainly in the last quarter we fell a little more when you compare with the previous quarter so yes I mean we expect to have 8 million tons at the end of this year as a sales and for your second question actually we expect to have 80 to 90 Thank you. Could you just remind me as well please Idil, in terms of the

The raw materials, you know, how do we think about the lag in terms of when the raw materials flow through the income statement?

Generally, we take it as four months, the lag for the raw material, and we still keep it as four months. So, there will be a little decrease on the raw material cost due to declining raw materials. But also the sales prices kept going down and also there will be a little more decline in our sales revenue as well.

Okay, thank you very much.

You're welcome.

The next question comes online of Eve Erika with Medlife. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I got a couple. The first one will be on, you mentioned this insurance proceeds. Can you just clarify, you already have received 100 and what is it here? I can see just a moment, 129. Yeah. Insurance at first payment. Yes, exactly. Insurance payments related to, I mean, at least is what I understood related to the earthquake. And then you mentioned that you will receive a further 205 million in the last quarter. Is it correct? Or is the 205 million inclusive for the 129?

Okay, so we got two advance payments from the insurance companies, 100 and 105. So the total payment that we got from the insurance companies is 205 million dollars until now. and we also expect to get the final payment from the insurance companies until the end of this year so most probably we will finalize the procedure soon and we will announce the final amount but right now it's not certain that's why we cannot share the the last payment but yes we expect to get it until the end of this year

And can you just mention the range of these payments, the additional payments that you expect to receive?

Unfortunately, it's not possible. The negotiations are still ongoing, so we don't know the exact amount.

Okay, understood. And then in terms of leverage, well, I haven't plugged the figures, but I guess that by year end, you will be above your 2.5 times net debt to be done. Is it a fair assumption?

Yes, it is a fair assumption. I mean, right now I have 2.8 multipliers as net debt evicta and most probably we will be around 3 multipliers when we look at the year-end results.

Right, because I remember in one of our conversations you were saying that you were happy to manage CAPEX and basically to bring down So when should we expect this to happen? Next year or do you foresee an EBITDA at this level as long as still prices remain as low as they are now?

It's a very good question Erika. The first thing that this situation is Thank you very much. To the first quarter of 2025, there will be some positive developments in the Turkish fuel market. The first one is anti-dumping duties imposed by the Turkish government. As I mentioned earlier for HRC to China, Russia, India and Japan. So we are expecting a positive effect to the Turkish still on the price base actually. So this kind of positive developments will have effects on our EBITDA and that's why we will have less Thank you. Can you just remind me how much capital you intend to spend next year? We expect a decrease. Thank you so much. That's all from me. You're welcome.

The next question comes from Lance Jalumal Ali with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thank you for the call. I have just two questions. The first one, in regards of your other VAT receivables, can you update us on how much is still outstanding there? And my second question is just about your I mean, your net bags or your EBG per ton between the domestic market and the export market, let's say for the similar products, flat or long. I mean, can you just give us a sense what's the differential there that you have achieved in the third quarter? And also, can you remind us what was the share of exports back, I mean, prior to the earthquake? Thank you.

Let me start from your second question. So our export level was very similar prior earthquake levels. We were around 20%. We had 20% exports in our total shares. So we are back to the prior earthquake levels as of today. I just missed the question about the Evisapyrton. Could you please repeat your question?

I was just wondering the differential that you have between your domestic sales and the exports market at this point of time in terms of pricing, if any?

Well, actually, it depends and it changes a lot. So, given the number, I mean, I would like, I do not want to generalize a number because it depends on the prices, of course. Right now, the export price is a little higher when you compare with the domestic prices, but it changes a lot. So, yes, we have a little difference between exports and domestic sales as Ebitda puts on, but it changes a lot. So, I also would like to answer your first question. You asked value-added tax receivables, right?

Exactly, yeah.

Yeah. So, as we shared in the first quarter call, we collected all of the value-added tax receivables of 14 billion Turkish Lira and 55% of 14 billion Turkish Lira was received in cash and the rest was received as an offset to the tax to be paid. So we collected last year's value-added tax receivables, but at the same time, new value-added tax receivables arrived with the sales made. But since the tax to be offset has not occurred yet, the value-added tax receivables continue at the same level.

Understood. So still around $500 million? Kind of, yes. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Ms Ergin for any closing comments. Thank you.

Thank you very much for joining us. We hope to meet you again in our fourth quasi-call. Have a nice day. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling and have a good afternoon.