Michelin Cie Gen Unsp/Adr

Good evening. Yves Chappot and myself are very happy to welcome you to our 2023 annual results presentation. And as you are going to see, then our results are very solid. I'm very pleased to report that Michelin has delivered a high segment operating income despite adverse market conditions and currencies. we have been demonstrating again the quality of our business model while improving people engagement and accelerating our sustainability roadmap. This reflects our group strategy to capture the full value of our differentiated offers and solutions that are designed to meet increasingly demanding customer requirements. Our sales have been flattish at 28.3 billion, but they were up 2% at constant exchange rates, with mix and price offsetting unfavorable market conditions. Our non-tire sales were up 10%. So if we zoom in on our revenue, The tire sales in markets were globally flat, but with an adverse mix and with OE growing in most segments and replacement facing massive destocking. The tire sales volumes were down 4.7%, reflecting our group's strategy of prioritizing markets and segments that do appreciate our unique value proposition. Our price and mix effects were up 5.7%, of which 1.2% was the mix, pooled by both products and geographies. Our non-tire sales were up 10%, which means around 146 million euros at constant scope of consolidation. And by the way, I'm happy to report that in the integration of our latest acquisition, Flexible Composite Group is well on track. We had this year a negative 2.9% adverse exchange rate effect as most currencies declined against the euro. If we now look at our segment operating income, it reached an all-time high of 3.6 billion euro. And the margins were up 0.7 points, 70 basis points, to 12.6% of our sales. The price effect was lifted by the lagged impact of 2022 adjustments. We had a substantial mixed effect resulting from market and segment targeting, combined with our group's enhanced value proposition. We improved operating performance and offsetting cost inflation factors. Our free cash flow before acquisition was at 3.3 billion euro, reflecting improving EBDA and a sharp reduction in working capital. Our EBITDA was up 4%, sorry about that, at 5.5 billion, or 94% of our sales. We had a 1 billion euro reduction in working capital, and that was driven mainly by the decline in both inventory volumes and value. We had a positive 200 million euro contribution from JVs and associates, notably the TBC distribution JV we have in the US. Our ROKI reached 11.4% and was up 60 basis points, reflecting our intrinsic performance and our active portfolio management. Our net income was stable at €2 billion, despite the inclusion of €600 million of our provision for our industrial restructuring. And that's why we propose a dividend of 1.35 euro per share that will be submitted to our shareholder meeting in the month of May. And that represents an 8% increase versus 2022. As we had a strong cash flow generation and we can accommodate our investment and our acquisitions, we will also propose a share buyback program which could be worth up to €1 billion over the period 2024-2026. And as it comes to the 2024 guidance, We would guide on an excess of 3.5 billion euro for the segment operating income at constant exchange rates. And we will guide at 1.5 billion euro for the reported free cash flow before acquisitions. And sometimes it's good to zoom back on what we have achieved. And I'm very pleased by the overall performance of our group over the years. If you start from 2007 up to 2023, you look at the green bars, this is our segment operating income. If you look at the blue bars, it will be our free cash flow generation. And what you will see, we have been, regarding our segment operating income, constantly increasing, despite, and that's the red dots, the sharp fluctuations of our volumes, because we are constantly improving our return on every... of our activities. And our cash flow generation is gradually moving to new levels, on average at 1.5 billion, where it used to be below 1 billion in the year past. So this is a very strong testimony to all the efforts all our employees are making every day, all the efforts all our people are inputting to develop Mishnah. And now I leave the floor to Yves that will induce you to more details about our performance in 2023.

So good evening, everyone. Before moving to the detail of the financial performance, as Laura mentioned, the group has delivered very solid performance in 2023. But beyond the profit side that we'll detail later on, I would like also to show you how we perform on the people and the planet areas. On the people side, you see here three indicators. All are improving. The percentage of women in managerial position has improved by 1.2 points in 2023. The total case of incident rates, which reflect the safety at work of our employee, is at 1.01 per 200,000 hours of work. So it's 0.06 points versus 2022. And our employee engagement is at a all-time high at 83.5%, one point above 2022. On the planet side, the Group is decreasing its footprint on its operations. Our CO2 Scope 1 and 2 emissions, so the emissions due to the production of energy or the purchase of energy from our factories, has decreased by 6% during 2022. with a lot of drivers, electrification of our processes, access to more sustainable energy sources, and improvement of the efficiency of our processes. The water withdrawal has been decreasing by 10% during the year, thanks also to a lot of initiatives taken in the different group sites. the share of renewable and recycled material rates has decreased by two points, from 30 to 28 percent, and it mostly reflects an evolution in the weight of our different business segments. our truck and bus and specialty businesses weight versus our passenger car businesses has decreased. And this is the activities that are using the most natural rubber, which explain this decrease of two point in our renewable and recycled material rates. But in parallel, the group has continuously improved its usage of particularly recycled material. and it does not impair our ability to reach 40% of sustainable, renewable and recycled material rate by 2030. So now zooming on our business and financial performance, let's have a look on the markets. At the end of the year, the passenger car and light truck markets have slightly increased by 2% with a rather favorable fourth quarter, mostly driven by the original equipment market, which increased by 9% when replacement markets has been basically flat. On the truck and bus side, The market has decreased outside China. The market has decreased by 4%, which reflects a slight increase in OE by 1% and a decrease in the replacement market by 5%. Looking at specialities markets, they are, let's say, negative or slightly negative, around zero, with very contrasted situation. Some markets have been hurt by some cyclicality issues or some crisis, for example, the construction market in a lot of developing countries and developed markets. Agriculture also is down, material handling is slightly decreasing, and tools has been also a market impacted after two, three years of booming after the COVID. On the other hand, the aircraft market has recovered. If we look at, for example, the commercial airlines market has recovered its 2019 level, and the mining market is increasing gradually as a single digit. low single-digit rate. So in terms of sales, as Laurent mentioned, at constant exchange rate, our sales has grown by 2 percent. with a negative impact of volume, 4.7%, but a positive impact of price and mix, 5.7%. Non-tire businesses contributed to 0.5% of our overall growth. And currency is massively negative, 800 million, or minus 2.9%, of which 83% occurred during the second half of the year. Now, looking at the translation of that in operating income, so despite very negative forex, as I mentioned, the segment operating income of the group is at a whole time high, at nearly 3.6 billion euro. And if you look at the way this SOI has been built over the year, in fact, if you exclude the effect of the currencies, our SOI has increased by 470 million, half during the first year and half during the second year. Looking now at the net improvement including currency, so plus 176 million, you see that the price mix has, let's say, more than compensated the negative volume effect at minus 700 million. when raw material, manufacturing, logistics performance and SG&A has been still slightly negative. Some entrants where prices were decreasing, such as raw materials. We have also seen a decrease of energy, but on the other hand, we have been seeing some increase in labour costs on some services. and non-tire businesses contributed 6 million to this improvement. Now looking at the performance segment per segment, you see that the segment number one, the automotive market, post record high operating margin at 13.7%, mostly driven by the mix improvement. Our sales of 18-inch and above tires at the Michelin brand reached 61% of our total sales in value versus 56% in 2022. On the truck and bus market or transportation market, both long distance and urban, you see a decrease in the operating margin of 2.1%, mostly driven by a massive destocking in distribution and fleets, a mix which was very negative between original equipment and replacement market. But at the same time, if you remember well, the group posted 5% operating margin at the end of the first half. It means that the second half was already at 8%, which is nearly the level of the full year 2022. So this activity had recovered during the second half. Speciality businesses post a 16.5% operating margin, 1.6 points above 2022, mostly driving by the mining demand and some segments of the aircraft businesses that have been growing sharply. On the other hand, most of our beyond roads activities plus the two wheels businesses were negatively contributing to the growth and has been suffering during the year. And the segment three is probably is the segment which has been the most impacted by the currency and particularly the US dollar evolution over the second half of 2023. Our free cash flow here also is at a whole time high at 3 billion euro. You see that we have generated 19.4% EBITDA at 5.5 billion. Change in working capital has been contributing heavily to this cash generation. Nearly 1 billion euros, of which 775 are coming from inventory, of which one quarter is nearly coming from prices effect and three quarters from the volume effect. And it reflects the way our teams have improved in managing our S&OP processes, sales and operation processes, and monitor our inventory. Taxes and interest paid during the year reached nearly 1 billion, of which 776 million are taxes paid to governments. Our capex were in line with our expectation. And I would like also to underline the strong performance of our joint ventures, particularly TBC, which has contributed positively to our cash generation, a little bit more than 200 million euros over the year. And of course, we acquired FCG for a little bit more than 700 million euros. Plus, we have started to more actively manage our portfolio of activities, which leads us to spend 666 million euros in acquisitions. So this strong cash generation has allowed us to decrease our debt by nearly €1 billion over the year. We spend, of course, a dividend of nearly €900 million. We have some translation adjustments and we have also made a specific contribution loan to our pension fund in the UK in order to prepare the buying process. Our gearing ratio landed at 18.3% and most of our ratings have been confirmed by the three rating agencies. We already mentioned our return on capital employee, which is also at the record at 11.4%. In 2021, when we launched our Michelin in Motion 2030 ambition, we have mentioned that our objective was to generate 10.5% ROCI at least over the cycle. And that has been in 2023 the case at 11.4%, mostly thanks to the NOPAT, the Net Operating Profit After Tax, which has reached 9.5% of our sales in 2023 versus 8.5% in 2022. We had also an asset turnover ratio which has been sustainably above 2019 level. And in 2023, of course, the contribution of our equity accounted companies fostered by our active portfolio management has contributed to this improvement in the ROKI. So now in terms of shareholder return, as Laurent mentioned, we are going to propose to the next shareholder meeting a dividend of 1.35 euro cents per share. which represent nearly 49% of our reported net income, and which is in line with the targets that we shared with you during the Capital Market Day in 2021. To complement this dividend, we will launch a share buyback program worth up to one million euros over three years, which is triggered by the fact that financially there is no interest to further deliver the company. The group has a very sound financial balance sheet and will continue to generate cash. Our next, if we look at the duration of our gross financial debt, is around nine years. Our next bonds payment is planned for September 2025. So we consider that we have room to buy back some of our shares during the next three years. So before moving to the 2024 guidance, just some reminder of probably one of the fundamental reasons why the group is able to generate such robust performance. It's first and foremost because of the wide diversity of the destination markets that we are serving. The automotive original equipment market, which is probably one of the most cyclical businesses with some specialty tires businesses, represent 10% of our sales. Transportation, so truck and buses, both long distance and urban transportation, around 20%. Specialty tires that are mostly driven by the evolution of commodities, both mining but also agricultural commodities, represent 18% of our global sales. Polymer composite solutions, so what we used to call beyond tires activity, represent 5%. And even within our three, let's say, traditional tire segment, the share of services, either fleet services, distribution, and lifestyles, represents 11% of our sales. And last, the replacement sales for automotive, both four wheels and two wheels, represents 36% of our sales. So it's a distribution which is well balanced between services, replacement, original equipment, and more, let's say, business-to-business activities. On the geographical standpoint, North America is our largest contributor at 39%. Europe represents 35% of our global sales, and the rest of the world, 26%. Zooming now on the acquisition of FCG. So we have acquired the company at the end of September 2023. So we have now passed the 100 days of first days of integration. And this integration is well on track. We are able to confirm the 21 million run rate EBIT synergy by 2028. We have created within the group a specific business line dedicated to composite fabrics and films, and the teams have started already to generate some synergies. Of course, very short-term synergies has been already implemented during the first 100 days, but we want to combine Michelin unique R&D capabilities with SCG's strong customer intimacy and mastering of the manufacturing of its manufacturing processes and understanding of the manufacturing processes of its customers. And all these elements are confirming the figure that we share with you in September at the acquisition. So now moving to the guidance, maybe some words on the evolution of the market. So at this time of the year, it's always very difficult to predict how the markets are going to behave. But let's say overall, we believe that the overall market should be selling market somewhere flat. with probably a positive mix effect with a slight increase in replacement and a decline in original equipment, and that all across the three segments. The pattern of the market will not, let's say during the year, will not massively change versus 2023. For passenger car and light truck tire market, we believe that OE should slightly decrease in demand, mitigated by some restocking by OEMs, particularly in North America. In replacement, we believe that even if market overall might be soft, the continuous mix enrichment will provide us opportunities for growth in this segment. For truck and bus, we think that the main event will be a rebalancing between original equipment and the replacement market. And as now the destocking has been done both at the transportation companies and at distributors, we think that we might have a slight growth driven by underlying transportation demand. Specialities here also, when we consolidate, we believe that overall it should be somewhere flattish. Mining tires, there is still some strong fundamental demands that are holding high. Market might be a little bit impacted by minor stock fluctuations. Beyond road, we also consider a slight growth across replacement, while original equipment cells will turn negative. The two wheels market will probably need sometimes to further consolidate after the boom of the two years following the COVID crisis. And the aircraft tire market should normalize after the very strong 2023 growth, which lead this market to be back at the pre-COVID level. So having integrated all these elements, we believe that the assumption that we took in order to build our 2024 budget was based on a volume slightly negative between 0 and minus 2. Probably slightly positive operating performance net of inflation. So by operating performance, we include, of course, operation, mix, price versus inflators. In the inflator, some are probably going down, but some will maintain, will probably continue to grow. Labor costs or services inflators might still be here next year. And we believe that overall inflation should not be too far from zero. Our capex cash out should be nearly at the level or slightly above the level of 2023. So therefore we are guiding with a segment operating income above 3.5 billion euro and a free cash flow above 1.5 billion euro. I just remind you that of course we have generated 3 billion euro free cash flow in 2023, but after nearly zero in 2022. So now the group is tending towards generating Of course, taking into account there will be no major fluctuation in raw material and energy, which will impact, of course, the price of our inventories. But we consider that the group should generate constantly a free cash flow above 1.5 billion in 2024.

Excellent.

So thank you very much. And now I think it's time for the Q&A.

Very good. So we open the floor for the Q&A.

This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Thomas Besson with Kepler Shriver. Please go ahead.

Firstly, could you discuss your volume assumptions again for 24? Minus 2 to 0 implies you may have a third consecutive year of volume decline and time markets could fall for a fourth consecutive time for the first time, I think. And it would mean you have four out of five years that are negative, which is also unprecedented. So is it fair to say it might be a bit conservative? Second question, could you give us an idea of the timing of your restructuring of outflows over 24, 25, until the 26th on the announcement you've booked in 23 and give us some indications on the payback of these restructuring actions. And finally, would you please explain us again, maybe I didn't catch that very well, how your margins rebounded strongly in the second half in trucks despite weaker volumes even than in H1, while at the opposite specialty margins dropped on the similar volume trend in Q4. Thank you.

Very good. So answering your first question about the volumes assumption for 2024, it's always difficult to predict When we looked at the macroeconomic environment in which we operate, we have uncertainties in Europe, macroeconomic-wise, and certainties also in North America. We have general election happening also in India. China is recovering, but at a speed that is less than what we had anticipated before. So that's why when we look at the market outlook, we look at the mileage. It should be steady. Overall, so we have no reasons to imagine that the market will strongly rebound. So it is true that for a long period, the market will be flattish over the period. Hopefully we would be wrong, but at this stage that's what we anticipate.

So for the restructuring overall, most of the restructuring cash outflow will happen in 24 and 25. There might be some residual one in 26, but you can consider it's probably on 100 it will be 40, 40 and 20 overall. And the payback, we are expecting global savings close to 200 million euros by full year in 26. But it should partially start to be visible in our operating performance in 25. The full year will be probably in 26. And regarding the last question of the recovery of the operating margin in SR2, SR2, if I remember well, was at historical low level in the first half of the year. And if you look at the operating margin on SR2 on the second half, it was 8%. So it's nearly the level of 2022 full year. mostly driven by improvement in operation, slight rebalancing between original equipment and replacement where we have very strong cells during H1 in OE and better piloting of the operations.

And maybe if I can complement what Yves was saying, during 2023, we had to adjust inventories because ourselves, but also in the entire supply chain. While you do that, you cannot optimize your industrial assets. And what we have seen during the second semester is as the inventories were getting back to more normal levels, plant loading was better, which has improved the industrial performance and therefore improved the margins. So we anticipate that 2024, as you've explained, the inventory adjustment will be over by the end of 2024, and therefore our plant loading will be better. And if you combine that with some first effect of the restructuring we have announced, that's why we are confident in our ability to structurally improve the margin on SR2. And for SR3, it's the same thing. As what we have been saying for a long time, we have on beyond road activities some structural adjustment to make. On mining, there is mining right now. The level of inventories at our customers are at adequate level. So the selling should... come out to the sellout so the what we will sell is what goes on the truck and not what goes on replenishing the inventory that's why we have a temporary volumes that will be a flattish in the beginning and then go back to more normal levels so that's why we are also confident in our ability to have segment three performing great thank you very much very clear

The next question is from Martino de Ambrogi with Equita. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good evening, everybody. The first question is specifically on the mix standalone. Maybe I missed it, but could you quantify what was the impact on the operating profit in 2023 just for the mix? Because if I look at one of your slides in which you indicate that the 18 inches and above will contribute, I am contributed and will continue to contribute for more than 100 million per annum. I was wondering what is the split of all the components of the mix for 2023. And the second question is on prices, because in Q4 they were basically flat. So what should we expect in 24 by division? I don't know if you have any additional comment on the investigation. I suppose not. But I suppose this will not influence the price discipline always testified in the past. And very last on the specialty, I clearly understand some of your indication for the main sectors. Just to understand what could be the specialty standalone sales for 24. Thank you.

Okay, so regarding the mix, as I said, in 2023, it was 1.2% out of the overall price mix effect that we projected. Now, the mix... as usual, is a very complex component because you have different type of mix. You have the mix of geographies. You have the mix between OE and replacement. You have the mix between the brands. You have the mix between the seat diameters in passenger car. You have the mix of the type of product you sell to which customer you sell in the mining or beyond road. So when you take all these mix, Unfortunately, we cannot detail them to you there. Now, what we know overall, we have a positive mix effect. And that leads to your second question on the price going forward. First, I want to make a statement, which is we price... what we think is right on every market. And that's it. And then, yes, the prices, again, in pricing, we have more than 4,500 SKUs to price. So when we talk generally about price, it's very complex because it's constantly moving. Now, we do not detail the price effect by division, but what I can tell you is that, as you know, we have a portion of our revenue that is made on index contract. That, going forward, those index contract will have to... reflect the fact that some input costs have been diminishing and therefore those price index contracts will reflect this. Now, Overall, for 2024, all what we are doing in terms of operational performance, all what we're doing in managing better the plant loading, all what we're doing with our structural reforms, and all what we're doing to manage our prices will offset globally these negative effects that we can anticipate on the index contract going forward. And maybe for the other questions, Yves?

Yeah, for the speciality cells, so mining, we are betting on a slight growth driven by the demand of the mines. Knowing that we also monitor the inventory of our mining customers, which are generally in average around six months, given the time to reach their location. On the beyond-world activities, we are expecting a decrease in the original equipment demand, both for agriculture and construction. And with the replacement market, that will be probably flat. And we are expecting the two-wheel business probably will need sometimes to recover a healthier situation after. It's probably the only market, we did not mention that at the beginning, where there is still a lot of inventory in the value chain, both of tires but of vehicles as well, particularly if you look at the bicycle segment. And this market will probably need some time to fully recover.

Thank you. If I may just follow up on the 18 inches and above, you improved by 4 percentage points in 2023. Should we assume this trend three, four percentage point higher every year in order to get the 100 million improvement in operating profit?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. We have been improving by five point in 2023. And if you look only at the machine brand and if you look in the past seven years, this sales has incrementally increased by three to five points year after years. Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Michael Jacks with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Maybe just starting with pricing, it would appear that your framework is for a stable pricing environment in replacement markets for 2024. I guess that's a question and a statement. And after the last period of high cost inflation and price increases dating back, I think 2010 to 2012, Michelin reported three or four years of price decreases in the region of around three to 4%, which I guess would suggest that there was price declines in replacement as well. My question to you is, what do you believe is the main difference this time around to suggest that prices in replacement markets should hold up better? And then my second question is with regards to the manufacturing and logistics cost performance in the second half, which seems to be the main source of the upside surprise relative to consensus. It would be great if you could just give us a sense on how that was derived or made up and whether or not we can expect a similar tailwind into the first half of this year. And then maybe just related to that, if you could just give us a little bit more color on the puts and takes for the various cost categories for this year, including raw mass, energy, logistics, and wages. Thank you.

So in the first element, we are always pricing what i was saying what we think is right in the market and and that's it so which means that again skew by skew customer by customer we are analyzing and all the time and we look at what the prices are right fundamentally we price our technology We have very strong technology. We price our performance. We provide a lot of value to all our customers, whether they are original equipment, whether they are on replacement. And that's what we do all the time. Now, sometimes people think our pricing is indexed on inflation, but... Again, if you look at inflation, it is true that some input costs are decreasing, but also there is the implied inflation in wages that have derived from all the inflation we went through over the past years, and that inflation will stay. And the inflation is above what we can do in terms of productivity. So we have to take that into consideration when we look at our pricing. And again, we are embarked in... having a good adequation between the quality of what we offer in the market and the return we can get out of the market. Now, for the cost assumption, I'm not sure we can detail all our cost structure, but we can give you some order of magnitude, maybe if you can give some color.

Yeah, mostly color, because as you said, Florent, there will be some input that are going that will see their price decreasing, such raw material, maybe a little bit of energy. Transportation logistic is still a question mark. We have seen a sharp decrease in 2023, but with the crisis ongoing in the Red Sea, it's probably too early to bet on what will be the final logistic cost for the year. There is, on the other hand, some elements, as Florent mentioned, that are going to continue to increase. We mentioned labor costs, but as well as the services that we are purchasing, either in manufacturing operations but also in our tertiary operations so all in one we believe that all these costs will probably at this stage of the year again neutralize each other and that's why we we believe that from the inflation standpoint it will be not negative not positive but probably around zero And of course, in front of that, we are trying first to better load our factories, which is the best way to improve our performance by better managing our fixed costs. Of course, the structural measures that we have announced in 2023 will probably start to have effect only in 2025, but maybe at the end of 2024, we should see some signs of better capacity utilization. And of course the group is working on a lot of drivers such as manufacturing 4.0, using new technologies in our services areas in order to improve productivity. So all in one, taking all these aspects plus the price and mix effect that were mentioned by Florent, we believe that we should be able to generate a slightly positive improvement versus all the inflators I mentioned previously.

Thank you. And then if I could just perhaps come back to my second question, if there's any color that you can add to the positive manufacturing and logistics performance in H2, that would be super helpful. Thank you.

Yeah, the color, what we explained, if we look at 2023, at the beginning of the year, we had to adjust our inventories, and therefore our plant loading was really poor. And as we completed this inventory adjustment, then the inventory loading, especially in Q4, was much better in relative terms. And that's what we, now that we have adjusted our inventories, our plant loading is structurally better just because of that. And that's what we are entering 2024 with this.

If you look at just what we call our manufacturing and logistic performance in our segment operating income bridge, it was minus $300 million on the first half of the year and plus 224, so positive during the second half. So, of course, in the plus 224 million, there was some deflation, if I may say, particularly on the energy cost or some transportation cost. But there was also the fact that, particularly during the last quarter of the year, we have a better management of our capacities than at the beginning of the year.

very helpful. Thank you.

The next question is from Jose Azumendi with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

A couple of questions, please. I was wondering if you could comment on the closure of the Tracta plant in Germany. How much will improve the load of the plants in the Tracta division in Europe or overall? If you could comment also on overall for the group, the price mix for material balance. How do you see that in 2024? And then finally, is it possible to comment, please, a little bit around how you're thinking about first half and second half 2024, specifically for the volume growth within SR1 and SR2?

Thank you. I wish we could detail month after month how 2024 is going to occur. Seeing from where we are, we think H1 is probably going to be tougher than H2. But again, in our market environment right now, this is what we think so far. But we have to see. Then when we look at the logging rate improvement, On average, our loading rate in 2023 has been in the SR2 around 70%. And you understand that at that level, it's not good. So for SR2, this is the main problem. way of improving the profitability of SR2 is by improving the loading rate. That's why we've made those restructuring announcements, and that would have a positive effect and bring us back to a more adequate level, which is above the 92, 93 percent loading that will be made gradually over the next few years. price mix, maybe, Yves, a balance in 2024?

We consider that inflators, knowing that inflators, there will be, of course, some elements that are going to increase and decrease, as I already mentioned. not only raw material, we have to take into account energy, transportation, as well as labour costs. And in front of that, with the price and mix effect, should be slightly positive at the end of 2024.

Thank you so much. Thank you.

The next question is from Monica Bosio with Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have been already answered, but I have one on the cash net impact from your restructuring actions. Can you please quantify the net cash impact from your restructuring actions on 2024? And should we expect further restructuring in 2024? The second question is on the passenger car segment. I understand that you see mild positive growth in replacement in the passenger car segment. Can you please give us any call across regions? It would be appreciated. And the very last is on the Beyond Tires activity. With reference to the agricultural tires in the original equipment market, would it be fair to assume a double-digit decrease in 2024? Thank you very much.

So regarding your first question, so the net cash impact from restructuring should be in the range somewhere between 200 and 300 million in 2024, knowing that it's of course related to the announcement that we made in 2023. in Germany and in the USA, but as well the end of the program that were previously launched, particularly in France. We have a three-year restructuring program that has been launched in 2021. and we'll still have some payment in 2024 for these programs. So altogether, we should be somewhere around 250 million euros for 2024 of cash out.

If we look at the miles driven by region, this is a very complex question. Overall, I can tell you that in Europe, We are anticipating miles to be slightly negative driven, slightly negative, so it means a flattish. In the U.S., the same. In all the emerging countries, the miles driven structurally will increase, but it may not play... all the time to our strengths because we don't – we select where – to which kind of vehicles we want to be on replacement. So, mass driven will increase in China structurally, in Southeast Asia, and in South America basically overall. And the overall mix will continue to improve in passenger car because that's the type of cars. We know that from OE because the OE that were defined, the vehicles that have been put in the market or defined two or three years ago will be arriving in the market. And we know they are embarking a very strong mix. Now, as far as the slowdown we expect in Ag-OE tires segment for the year 2024, Ag-OE has been buoyant up until now, showing the good income, especially in the high power that we're in some region of the world. So we expect that to slow down while the the agricultural income reset itself at the appropriate level. So how much is, we have some assumptions, but I don't think we detail them in this kind of call.

Okay, no problem. Thank you very much. Very kind.

The next question is from Sanjay Bhagwani with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Hello, thank you very much for taking my question also. I have a few questions as well. And the first one is how to come back on the mix. So, if I understood it correctly, I think the product mix largely remains the same, the replacement gets better. So, should we expect the mix to get better in 24? That is, it could be higher than 1.2 in 23. And related to mix, when when do we see the impact from the EVs in the replacement tires? Can this again start helping from 24? That is my first question. My second question is on Romet's tailwind. So when we look at the free cash flow beat for 23, large part of this is driven by inventories, meaning that the inventories that are sitting now on the balance sheet are at lower cost. So they should hopefully help the profits next year. So how should we think of this? And finally, on the third, so if I like to just look at my first two questions, and then if I look at your guidance for segment operating income of greater than 3,500, Isn't it too conservative? I mean, you're already doing somewhere around 3570 this year. And even if you assume the volumes to be probably at the lower end of the guidance, aren't there enough other tailwinds? So what is basically, let's say, the key driver for the EBIT can go down in 24 versus 23? Those are my questions.

Okay, so I will start with some of your questions and on the cash, I'll let Yves answer you. So on the guidance, We have a stance with Yves to say we want to overdeliver on our promise. That's what we've been doing constantly over the past years, and that's what we'll be doing in the future. So now you may think it's conservative. When we look at our business, when we look at the market environment, it is not conservative. It's conservative. What we think is right and what we have said is it is in excess. And, of course, in excess, you have plenty of room in excess. And I'll leave it to your sagacity to say what you think is right. Now, that in Barks, if you remember, our guidance last year was $3.2 billion. And we have already... put in our basket 300 million improvement in operating result in one year. So you may say it's conservative, but we say it's a strong commitment. Now, when we look at... product mix better in 2024 2023 has been very strong on mix 2024 We see we have taken assumptions that were close to what we have seen in 2023 and on average over the past five years and that's what we have in our plan now on EV There is a lot of questions I need to remember you that all our tires are EV ready, which means that all our tires can be fitted on every type of vehicle, whether EV or not EV. So that doesn't change what is happening on the EV, does not change our outlook for 2024. Of course, the more EV is sold, the more opportunities we have on top of what we do. But as we have made the investment in the past decades, we are insensitive to the portion of EV. It's maybe a lesser opportunity that we can seize if EV is less on the replacement. So now what you say is... It is true that EV, they consume more tires on replacement, and the more EV that goes into the market, the more replacement opportunities that will create. We have models that are simulating that, and that's what we have embedded into our forecast for 2024. And maybe on the cash...

On the cash we had in 2023, don't forget that we have a 1 billion euro effect coming from the working capital. Part of it is coming from the prices. Part of it was coming from better monitoring of our sales and operation process, which lead us to have over the year constantly lower inventory than in 2022. Of course, we will continue on this program to better manage our inventories. But the progress that we have done in inventories, it's a one-shot effect. When the EBTDA will be recurring. There was also, let's say, a punctual effect in our free cash flow coming from the GV contribution. which was very positive. And when you look in the previous year, it was rather negative or close to zero. We are still expecting some contribution from our North American GVN distribution, but overall will not generate 200 million of additional cash coming from our joint ventures in 2024. So that's why you have also to take that into consideration when you project our 2024 free cash flow. And generating more than 1.5 billion should be, let's say, the norm. Here again, as we don't guide anymore on the structural free cash flow, but on the posted free cash flow, of course, we will, over the year, indicate to you what will be the effect of prices on our free cash flow because it heavily impacts our working capital.

And as I was listening to you, Yves, maybe just a complement to your question about the too conservative or not. Remember that we also have in 2024 the index contract to take into consideration.

The next question is from Steve Fernandez with Societe Generale. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Could you talk about the level of competition in the US market, especially since the reduction of. Import duties on passenger cars from Thailand.

So first. The tire industry is a very intense competitive market in every geography around the world. The U.S. is one, but it's true as well in South America, Europe, wherever we go. It is true that sometimes when there is a fluctuation in the duties, it has an impact, but more so we don't see any structural movement in the tier structure of the market in North America. So at this stage, we don't see this as being a major effect, as having a major effect in the market. On top of that, you need to remember that Michelin operates in the top part of the tier one, and that's somewhat, we are very, we are far less sensitive to this kind of issue than others.

Thanks for that, and if I could just follow up with one about Euro 7. I think there's now officially guidelines for how tyre abrasion will be measured When do you think you'll be in a position to kind of find out the kind of repercussions from Euro 7 and kind of how confident do you think you are today to face that new regulation? Thank you.

So you're right. Euro 7 package, especially the tire abrasion portion, has been voted. So that's the good news. Now, before it has an impact in the market, it's going to take a few years because every country now has to put it in their local legislation. So it will take some time before it impacts, but it's for us a good opportunity to remind everyone that Michelin has structurally a very strong advantage in terms of tire abrasion. We are by far the better in that domain, and The number of particles emitted by our tires per mile is by far the lowest to any of our competitors. So that's why we are welcoming this. The effect, I think, will not come before 2025, 2026, before we can see the effect of this.

That's great. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Ross McDonald with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Good evening. It's Ross McDonald from Morgan Stanley. Three questions, please. Firstly, on the €1 billion buyback programme, just to help me understand this programme in a bit more detail, you said this could be up to €1 billion between 2024 and 2026. What conditions do we need to see for the buyback to run at full speed of 80 million euros per quarter, i.e. how much should I expect in 2024 in euro terms, please? And then secondly, the cost of debt is relatively high at this time. How should we think about this buyback in the context of your non-tire M&A aspirations? Should we look at this as maybe signalling some slowdown in your plans to do further acquisitions on the non-tire side? over the next 12 months. And then final question just on the Red Sea impacts. If I recall correctly, you have a May to May annual marine shipping contract. What is the impact to the group? Is it mainly on the delays to products getting to market at this point, or are you facing some surcharges from shipping companies also? Thank you.

Thank you. So about the buyback signal, there is no signal apart from the fact that Michelin has strong cash generation, and therefore it's logical. It's a good investment when we look at de-earing too quickly at this stage where our borrowings are cheap in the balance sheet. The best way to invest money at this stage is to do it. Now, as far as to do these buybacks, as far as the structure, of course, there is in this buyback, it includes all the buybacks we do every year just to avoid the dilution due to the share we are granting to our employees. So that is embedded into that. Now, we have created this up to one billion because, of course, over three years, because We just want to make sure that we do these buybacks in the best market conditions available. So we will give a mandate to a third party that will be there to optimize these buybacks and to take the market opportunities. So that's why it is not... set per quarter.

We communicate every time with the bank that will mandate. We communicate on the period and the amount of the buyback.

Now, as far as M&A, our strategy is still valid. 2030 is still seven years away. And we have very strong ambitions. And our M&A, there is no pause. It is just the realization we had a very strong cash flow generation over the past years. So we can do the M&A we need to do. Our balance sheet is strong. We can do our investments. And we can pay our employees. So Michelin is strong. That's why we would do it this way.

On the Red Sea situation, first you have to take into account that there is around 4% of our overall product flows which were going through the canal, the Suez Canal, both if you take into account raw materials and finished product. It was mostly raw materials that were shipped from Asia to Europe or some finished product, by the way, in both directions. So for the time being, the impact that we are seeing is mostly an increase in delay for the containers that have to circumnavigate Africa in order to reach Europe. There will be probably punctually some cost increase, but today it's not at the magnitude that justify any specific communication, so it's taken account in our 2024 assumptions for the guidance. And of course, we have in some cases been doing some preventive production reduction in Europe in order to not be forced under constraint to stop production because of the lack of some raw materials. So that was mainly the effect of this crisis that is by the way very well managed by our teams.

So thank you very much. This was our last question. So thank you for attending the call. Thank you for your interest in Michelin. And I even I would like to take the opportunity to thank all the Michelin people that are listening to us tonight for all what they are doing. And because Michelin Michelin's performance is your performance. So thank you very much and see you soon. Thank you.