Metro Bk Hldgs Plc

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Metro Bank's half-year results presentation. I'm Daniel Frumkin, the CEO, and with me today is Christina, our CFO, who's been filling in admirably while we wait for Mark Page to join us in September. Today we're going to go through a bit of an overview. I'm not going to talk about the existing financial results for the first half. I'll let Christina do that. I would just say they're exactly as we expected and in line with the transitional year we discussed at our year-end results. What I'm going to spend a lot of time on is talking about the future, the future we see for Metro and the future we see for all stakeholders. Then Christine will come up and talk a bit about financial performance, and I'll come back and talk a little bit about the path forward. So let's talk about what we see in the future. So let's start with the biggest thing. We will be profitable during quarter four. The turnaround, the transitional year, whatever phrase you like to use, is coming to completion. We will return to sustainable profitability during quarter four 24. In addition, we're increasing our guidance on return on tangible equity for the next three years. So we'll deliver mid to upper single digits next year, return on tangible equity, double digits in 26, and we will get to mid to upper teens thereafter. We do that by driving a much higher NIM. So NIM approaches this year 2.5%, next year 3.25%, and 26%, 4%. And you say moving from our quarter 2 NIM of 174 basis points to 400 basis points in 26, that's a big jump. That's 226 basis point increase in NIM in 2.5 years. A third of it Roughly 70 basis points comes from two things and two things alone. The sale of the mortgage portfolio is very NIM accretive, and the rolling off of the Treasury portfolio is equally NIM accretive. In addition, we're making real progress on rotating the balance sheet and bringing down cost of deposits. We're very confident in the path forward for NIM. And we continue to do a great job on costs, We're improving the guidance on cost. So our cost income ratio now will approach 60% in 2027 instead of 2028. And by 2028, we'll have a cost income ratio approaching 50%. The model works. The store-based people-people banking model works. Our colleagues working with our customers to create fans works. And these results are an indication of how well it works. So by 2027, Metro Bank will be generating one of the highest returns on capital of any UK high street bank. So let's talk a little bit about how we get there. So the strategy we talked about at year end, if you remember the dot plot and the four things underneath the dot plot that we ended the presentation on at year end, there are four big drivers for us to return the bank to profitability and generate the returns on changeable equity you saw on the prior slide. Cost discipline. We will deliver the 80 million in run rate by the end of the year. We're extremely confident in our ability to identify and execute those cost savings. Over 50 million of the 80 million has already been executed and is embedded in the run rate that we will see come through later this year into next. The 2.5 billion pound mortgage sale is moving forward. It was a good transaction. It unleashes Metro in a way that we've not been unleashed before. It allows us to rotate assets quicker, grow NIM faster, and generate better returns on tangible equity. If you look at the box on that table The commercial teams have done an amazing job in the first six months of the year. One of the reasons we're confident to provide upgraded guidance, one of the reasons we're confident in the path forward to the NIMS and the ROTI is by the activity levels in our commercial teams in the first six months of the year. We have credit approved pipeline that's equal to 116% of all the lending we did during 2023. We are on pace to almost or double the lending we did in 2023 in our commercial corporate SME businesses. And deposits, I know deposits look like they were up slightly from year end, which they were, that is the math, but they're 800 million lower than they were in February of 2024. We're repricing deposits at pace to improve cost of deposits. All of this isn't yet evident on the balance sheet. It's not yet flowing through to the financials, but it absolutely is the fundamental drivers of the increased RODI and the improved NIM. In terms of asset repricing, we wanted to make this as self-evident as we could. With the passage of time, The fixed-rate Treasury investments we have in 25 and 26, a half a billion in 25, a billion in 26, roll off. If we reinvest those at expected market rates based on forward curves today, that activity alone adds 450 basis points to our RODI. So we get an uplift at the start of 2027 after 25 and 26 roll-offs of 450 basis points on the roadie just from the passage of time. And again, in 2027, we expect to deliver mid to upper teens return on tangible equity that will make Metro one of the highest return on capital banks in the UK. Again, the amount of progress we've made over the last nine months is, I don't think we have a peer. I don't think there's another bank in the world that has delivered the level of change we've delivered since October. 23% of headcount's gone away. We fundamentally restructured our retail proposition. We fundamentally restructured our regional commercial operation. We fundamentally started to reposition our mortgage business, generate higher yields. We have been running at pace, and we will continue to do so. I just want to pick up a couple of bits. So if you look at the streamlined and refreshed our offering, we have tailored our store and amazed direct hours to better meet our customer needs, driven off the data that we collected during 2022 and 2023. We're opening new stores. We're completely committed to stores being an anchor and the foundation on which Metro builds upon. We've begun construction in Chester and we signed a lease in Gateshead. We're actively looking for more stores in the north of England and the East Midlands. We believe stores provide the foundation for us to build upon as we go forward. In terms of new products, we launched our first limited company buy-to-let product, which we're quite excited about. It's one of our first new mortgage products we've launched in quite some time. It's been well received by the market, and as we inch into doing more and more specialist lending, it's a start. And in terms of 24 strategic focus, the rest of the year is about embedding, growing. All of what you see there is about how we get bigger and how we generate more returns over time. So we'll embed the structural changes in our regional and commercial lending activities. We're gonna hire more people in commercial and corporate. We're actively looking for people to join us now. We're actually overwhelmed with applicants. So we're quite excited about growing those teams. We'll launch further specialist products. And again, we need to complete the mortgage sale. And we are desperately searching for store locations in the north of England. We've been looking for many months, and we struggle to find the right location for the repositioning of Metro, more focused on SME and commercial lending. I'll now turn it over to Christina, who will talk about the financials. Thank you.

Thank you, Dan. And as he said, thank you, everyone, for being here with us today, this morning. I'm going to walk you through the financials that are nothing less than the numerical representation of all the operational activity that Dan has already described. First of all, I'm pleased to report that we are on track where we were expected to be. We are exactly where we were expecting to be as we were standing here six months ago telling you about the results of last year. However, the first half of the year is not reflective of the overall shape of the business and all the transition and actions that we are undertaking. As you can see, we have been reducing the rate of our deposits that were raised deliberately in the campaign that was done in November 2023, but they are proving to be really resilient. So the balances we keep in the accounts still have a proportion of those tactical deposits. As a result, our LCR remains high at 365 percent, as you can see. And then equally, our total capital rate here remains just slightly above where we closed last year at 22.2%, where we were saying we were going to be focusing on capital management and capital allocation and optimization, and that's exactly what we were doing every day. From a NIM point of view, as we anticipated, we are at 6.64% for the first half of the year, and at the end of the second quarter, we are at 174. This proves that the improvement has started at the overall NIM level, and the worst of the J-CORF, because we are in that transition, is behind us. We are through the trough of this transition and the J-CORF, and we are on the up on this pivoting. You can see it all reflected on the numbers here on the screen. If we think about what have been the most impactful actions that we are taking, they're probably on the cost initiatives. They've been very visible. We had executed on a lot of colleagues that we had to let go. As Dan said, 23% of our colleagues were gone in the first half of the year. So I'm pleased to say that we are exactly where we expected to be. I'm spending a high proportion of my time in all of the actions that are going to make us a leaner and more effective organization. So we have already delivered on the $50 million of annualized savings in the first half of the year, and we are now on track to deliver for the $30 million. We have a roadmap, and we are executing on it. There have been really difficult actions, as we said. We are now focusing in productivity initiatives, being more efficient, and decommissioning products that are not adding sufficient value to our funds, and they are not capital accretive. We have been taking the actions with regards, for example, to the opening hours. It's based on data. It's based on information we've got. And when the funds value most that we are with them, we have kept those hours open. and many, many acts, as I said, on cost control and being more efficient from a third-party cost as well. If we think about what Dan was referring to, the repricing of the asset portfolio on the Treasury asset side, there's already 450 bps where the ROTI is going to improve, and you can see the shape here. Most of the maturities are going to come in 2026 for over a billion, but it's happening over 2026, and the tail end is in 2027. You will see here we are the highest of the LCR and we are actively managing the rates on our deposit side so that it comes down. Mostly we expect that decrease to come in the second half of this year. You will see that at the year end results. It's really reinvigorating to see that our proportion of nibbles remains almost double what our peers are, and this is a true testament to our brand, to the metro presence, and the work of our colleagues are doing in the stores and in AmazeDirect every day. If we turn out the lending side of our balance sheet and we look at our NIM, we are closing the first half of the year at 165%. But we wanted to illustrate here that as of the second quarter, we are at 174%. Most of the impact, as Dan has anticipated, is coming from the cost of deposits, and there is more to come on the second half of the year. Looking at our commercial lending, we are doing really, really good progress. It doesn't fully show in our lending income over lending rich-weighted assets, but it will show more in the second half of the year as our approved pipeline will start to draw as we are sitting here today. Looking at the lending mix, we are going to see an accelerated transition towards more specialized mortgages and commercial and SME lending. And I wanted to illustrate here what's going to happen once we close on the mortgage sale that has been announced in the last few days. We're going to reduce significantly our mortgage portfolio to 54%, and that is going to meaningfully uplift our yield again and our NIEM. And as you can see, we are going to be focusing on specialized mortgages with 200 pips spread. And on the commercial side, we are already at 350 pips spread. So that is going to give us that uplift. We wanted to give you a bit of insight also on what Where are we seeing our product lending mix seeing? Because that will help us all have a similar expectation, and you will be able to all look at your models and revisit them. So over a long period of time, we expect mortgages to go down to 30% of the total portfolio, and commercial combined with all the SME, asset finance, inventory finance will go to 70%. That is going to be core to the improved guidance that Dan has already anticipated. If we take a few seconds just to look at the shape of our balance sheet, we have fundamentally a low-risk balance sheet. And the capital position is really robust. You've seen in the charts earlier. Our MRL is now at 22.2%. And once we close the mortgage sale transaction, we'll be at 23.4%, which is more than 500 briefs improvement from where we were at this time last year. And on the asset side, as you know, Metro for many years, we've got a really highly collateralized portfolio that is probably provisioned. And just as you can see in our disclosures as well, our treasury portfolio is very conservative with most of our assets primarily AAA rated. Just finally, I wanted to give you with this, it's a busy page here, but just to give you all the foundation elements to upgrade our guidance that we have announced today. We expect our ROTI to be on, we are increasing it to mid upper single digit in 2025, double digit in 26, and mid to upper teens thereafter. On NIM, as we are saying, we are expecting the asset rotation with an exit run rate reaching 4% by 2026. On costs, we have already delivered the significant savings, and we are on track to deliver the 80 million analyzed run rate savings by the end of this year in the fourth quarter. As those savings come into effect, and alongside with the sustained cost disciplines and income growing, we see that the cost-to-income ratio is going to be improving already to 70% in 2026 and will be tracking to 50% in 2028. On the lending side, you've seen the product mix shift that we have already anticipated, and the cost of deposits, it's already coming down, and several actions are being implemented in July. We expect deposits to remain flat from 2024 to 2026, with upper single-digit growth thereafter. And with that, I'd like to hand back to Dan.

Thanks, Christina. So let's just spend a couple of minutes on the strategy. You've seen this slide since I arrived, really. It's the five pillars you've used to reposition the bank and drive it forward. I'll just spend a bit of time as you work left to right. Listen, for us to grow revenue, we really need to get the corporate business to continue to fire on all cylinders. We need to bring down cost of deposits so that NIM can start to grow. We've got it that NIM's going to grow quite substantially. we're pretty confident. On cost, I think you can have real confidence that we've delivered the 50 and are well on track to delivering the 30. In terms of balance sheet optimization, again, I've always talked about risk adjusted returns on regulatory capital. It's one of the reasons why I'm comfortable with the trade on the residential mortgages. Everybody needs to remember that we built that residential mortgage portfolio in anticipation of receiving different capital treatment. As soon as we were told that we were delayed in getting that capital treatment, that portfolio did not provide the right risk adjusted return on regulatory capital for us on a go forward basis. It is much better on a larger balance sheet that has the right capital calculations. So again, that sale makes a ton of sense for us to be able to optimize the balance sheet and move forward. And the low cost deposits, Christina mentioned it, but we have 36% of our deposit book is in nibbles. And the reality is that's twice the industry average. And we get that because of our stores and because of our commercial and corporate activities. I think when you see the infrastructure slide, I was asked this morning on the call, which I thought was a great question, does the cost-income ratio guidance you provided, does it include the new stores, and does it include enough investment in systems and infrastructure in the forward plan that we can have confidence that you'll hit the cost-income ratio? My answer to both is yes. We have new stores built into the plan, and we continue to invest in the infrastructures you'd expect us to, to build out our tech estate to become more digital. All the types of things you'd expect us to invest in is in the plans that still delivers a cost-income ratio that drops to 50%. In terms of communications, I just want to spend two seconds on the clarity of Metro Bank potential for all stakeholders. I know that seems like a weird sentence and it probably, it is a wee bit of a weird sentence, but I think given we went through in October, given the amount of change we've had to drive through the organization, given the amount of activity we needed to see increase in the organization, we've really hit our light under a bushel a bit as Metro, both internally and externally. And I want to be really clear that the guidance provided today is the start of us changing the narrative, Metro Bank will be a wildly successful bank going forward, and we need to make sure everybody understands that. The one piece that I fully accept that people need to endorse, so we've showed you how we can grow NIM by reducing cost of deposits. That's relatively straightforward because, again, we have excess deposits. We've talked about cost, which will help us drive the roadie. I think, again, relatively straightforward. The bit that truly is unleashed by the mortgage sale and by the pivot that we've done is our corporate and commercial bank. That bank has been here for over a decade. The people we have have been with us for a long time. We have not unleashed that business because of capital constraints and because of focus on residential mortgages that would have gotten us the capital relief under ARB. Now that we're moving into a new environment and pivoting the bank, this area becomes a foundational piece for the bank going forward, and you need to believe that we can grow it. So let's just hit a couple of highlights. One, it's the breadth of our offering. I am not aware of any other challenger bank that has the breadth of offering that Metro has. We have the full suite of products, including cash management products, to support corporate, commercial, SME, asset finance, invoice finance. We can do real estate. We have a good private banking arm. We have the breadth of offering in this space that allows us to compete and win. We believe in our relationship model. We believe in people-people banking. Again, we think that allows us to win. And let's remember how big this market is. This is a 580 billion pound market. We don't need very much of that to make a huge difference to the financial profile of Metro. We have 374 colleagues in situ today attacking these markets. On average, those colleagues have over 15 years of experience. We're not building the teams. We're not figuring out what to do. The teams exist. We already have huge capabilities in this area, and we're driving forward. And one of the things you'll see on that list that should not be lost is we have 35 colleagues who do the underwriting in credit, who have over 25 years of experience. So this isn't the front line deciding what to do and being able to book credits without the appropriate oversight and controls. We have real discipline about the way we originate credit. We've been doing it for a long time. We have people with lots of experience and we'll get after it. The thing on the right I want to highlight is the fact that the stores matter. Today, of all the originations we've done in the first half of the year, which for the record, origination's about 80% of what we did all of last year, and the pipeline's 116%, so we did a lot of volume in the first half of the year. Roughly 80% of it came from the stores or relations we have with accountants and lawyers. It did not come from brokers. which is very different than the other mid-tier banks. Now, we like the broker channel. We will grow out the broker channel. But today, we're generating volume because of our localness, because of our relationships in the communities in which we operate. It is a huge differentiator. And the other thing that's true is there's 900 billion pounds of deposits in the SME commercial corporate space to go after. 900 billion pounds. Our stores will play a huge part in driving those deposits into Metro. So you've seen this plot on the left. It's clearly the blue dot's been dragged down. We see huge potential to move that dot back to where it belongs. We will bring down cost of deposits, which will drive the dot up. and we will change the asset mix to drive the dot to the right. We see clear blue water for where Metro will operate. We will have high street funding costs combined with mid-tier asset generation. We will be a specialist lender combined with high street funding. There is not another bank in the UK that's anything like Metro. And we'll do it through cost discipline, asset rotation, bringing down cost of deposits and asset repricing. And I'll end where I began. We will be profitable during the fourth quarter of 2024. We've improved our guidance around NIM, around RODI, we've revised our guidance on cost income ratio, and our guidance for 2027 indicates that Metro will deliver, one of the highest returns of any high street bank in the UK. We're excited about the journey. We're excited about the opportunities. I'm genuinely pleased with how much progress we've made in such a short period of time. And I look forward to taking your questions. Thank you.