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Norsk Hydro A S Ads
4/29/2026
Good morning and welcome to Hydro's first quarter 2026 presentation and Q&A. We will shortly begin with a presentation by President and CEO Ivan Kolovic, followed by a financial update from CFO Trond Olav Vissopsen. We will then finish off with a Q&A session. If you would like to ask questions in the Q&A, you can do so at any time during the presentation, and you do it by typing your question into the chat box on your screen. When we then get to the Q&A, I will read your questions on your behalf directly to Eivind and Tromora. And with that, I give the word to you, Eivind.
Thank you, Erik, and good morning and welcome from me as well. As always, the first topic to cover is safety. And I would like to begin by saying that we are deeply saddened by the passing of a contractor at the Alunoste aluminum refinery in Brazil on March 30. Our thoughts are with the family and loved ones at this very difficult time. Our priority is that they receive the necessary support and assistance going forward. Now, the root cause is currently under investigation, and we do not yet know what led to this tragic incident. And if the investigation concludes that inadequate safety measures contributed to this incident, we will of course take this extremely seriously. We will learn from it and we will implement appropriate actions to prevent this from happening in the future. And incidents like these are a stark reminder of why we must continue to put safety first at all of our plants every day and at every shift. Looking at Hydro as a whole, our overall safety performance remains strong with low injury and incident rates. And maintaining these levels requires continuous attention and commitment across the company. And let me underline, as I always do, the health, safety and well-being of our employees is our top priority. Now let's then continue with some highlights. This quarter, the adjusted EBITDA came in at 8.7 billion. Due to high prices and strong market activity, operating capital is also higher, resulting in a negative free cash flow of 4 billion. Adjusted ROCE over the cycle came in at 10.1%, which again is above our target of 10% over the cycle. Looking more closely at the highlights behind these numbers. First, we saw continued strong operational performance upstream. Aluminum production was up 3.4% and primary aluminium production was up 2.7% compared with the same quarter last year. On the other hand, power production and extrusion sales volumes decreased this quarter, driven by maintenance and hydrology in the energy area and continued soft markets within extrusions. Recycling delivered its strongest results since 2023. supported by a widening spread between product premiums and standard income premiums. We also maintain strong momentum on power sourcing, and the half-zero facility in Folsom is now successfully commissioned, ramping up as we speak. And I will get into some more detail on these two on the next slide. Looking back at the first quarter, we have to address the situation in the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions have impacted our market environment for quite a few years now, and with the recent escalation in the Middle East directly impacting our operations in the region. Health and safety, of course, for our affected employees in the area is our top priority. And today we have some 113 employees living in the GCC countries, and we are following up closely to support their safety as well as their well-being. On the production side, Katalyn is running at reduced capacity with around 40% curtailment as announced on March 3rd. At the same time, we are working hard to continue serving our customers through our global cash flows portfolio. And despite this backdrop, we continue to progress on our 2030 strategy of pioneering the green aluminium transition powered by renewable energy. First on power sourcing, One of our key priorities is, of course, to secure long-term competitive renewable power. At the invested day in November, we highlighted the power sourcing gap expected in the coming years post-2030. Now, closing that gap has been a key priority for us, and I'm pleased to report that our efforts are paying off. The open power position post-2030 has narrowed significantly following new contracts signed since November. This quarter, we signed an agreement with Alpique amounting to 1.75 terawatt hours for the years 2031 to 2038. And just this week, we entered into two new contracts with DotCops running from 2029 to 2038, adding some 12.3 terawatt hours of renewable energy to our sourcing portfolio. And finally, we're also happy to report that the Halt Zero test facility is now up and running and will be ramped up towards full test capacity in the third quarter of 26. And as we speak, structured testing activities are being conducted, including key safety systems, operational control systems, equipment designs, and core production processes. While the first metal is still to come some months ahead of us, I can confirm that we already produced our first droplet of aluminium. So not quite full production, but proof that we are on our way. We turn to box-out and alumina markets. In the first quarter, our attention has been on the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the supply-demand balance. With the region being a net importer of alumina, the disruptions to aluminium production and shipping is expected to have a negative impact on the global alumina balance. In isolation, we estimate that the situation will increase oversupply outside China to around 2.7 million tonnes. To include China, we expect global oversupply to be around 3 million tonnes. What remains to be seen is how much capacity will be curtailed in China, bringing the global oil supply down again. Looking into 2027, the estimates are uncertain, depending not just on the supply situation in China, but also the ramp-up of smelter capacity in the Middle East. Also, as Indonesia increases production from its refineries and snappers, it will add more supply to the global market, influencing prices, trade flows, and overall supply-demand balances accordingly. And as such, the pressure on COX continued in Q1, with prices averaging around $307 per ton, compared to $310 per ton at the end of 2025. The Atlantic differential did decrease at the beginning of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. However, this is primarily caused by higher oil prices driving up shipping costs. Then if we move on to the aluminium market. This has clearly also been impacted by the situation in the Middle East. The region is a significant producer of aluminium, representing some 9% of global output. But it is also a major export region, with some 45 million tonnes exported on an annual basis. The combination of the announced retailments in the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely impacts global metal supplies. Both China and the world ex-China are now estimated to be undersupplied in 2026. And as we have all seen, this has resulted in a sharp increase in the aluminum price. The three-month aluminum price began the quarter at $2,995 per ton and finished above $3,400 per ton. In addition to LME, the standard English premiums have increased both in Europe, the US, as well as in Japan. And the US Midwest premium continued to climb from already high levels that reflect the 50% import duty on the Section 232 tariffs. The Midwest premium rose from just over $2,000 per tonne at the end of 25 to north of $2,500 at the end of the quarter. European premiums also climbed, with duty-paid standard English premiums moving from $335 at the start of the quarter to $587 at the end of March. Now, speaking of premiums, the value-added product premiums and scrap prices also impacted this quarterly results. Peter sells a high share of value-added products relative to the standard English sales. Following supply disruptions from the Middle East, the value-added premiums have increased even more than the standard English premiums. This positively impacts the cost of profitability, both at the smelters, but also importantly at our recyclers. So after a period of tough market conditions for our recyclers, we saw materially improved profitability in the first quarter. And the delta between the total sales price for extrusion ingots, consisting of LME, ingot premium, and bill adopt charge, and the metal input costs consisting of LME, some standard ingot, and some scrap, has continued to widen. Now, as you can see, this delta is now very favorable in the U.S., supporting strong recycling profitability. In Europe, the delta has also developed positively, but at a lower level. The energy cost has also increased somewhat in Europe, which eats into some of the increased metal spread. At the investor day in November last year, we showed that the spot recycling margins in the U.S. were already strong and would theoretically support a 1.8 billion annual EBITDA. Since then, the US margins have continued to strengthen and the annualized run rate in EBITDA in Q1 was actually around 2.4 billion. If we move downstream, the extrusion market outlook remains uncertain. In Europe, the full year demand growth has been revised downwards since January, with a flat Q1 estimate, declining markets in the second quarter, and a modest recovery expected in the second half of the year. Full year growth is now expected at around 1%. In North America, the latest revised market figures indicate a poorer end to 2025 than what was reported in January, combined with a sharper market contraction in Q1. This is compensated for by a stronger recovery in the third and the fourth quarter, keeping the full year growth at 1%. The demand for building and construction was stable in the first quarter, but with some positive signs in Europe at the end of the quarter. Automotive demand is starting to improve thanks to production growth of electrical vehicles in Europe, while the U.S. automotive story is the opposite, where headwinds in the EV production is negatively impacting the demand development. Some of the key U.S. segments are seeing some demand weakness in part due to the holiday product prices. This negatively impacts the transportation segment, where trailer yields remain low. The HVAC and R growth rates are also negative. We expect that some of this is demand disruption from the high all-in metal prices in the US. The high interest rates and the destocking effects will also curb the demand. One bright spot in the US is the electrical segment, where data-centered demand seems to be very robust. Other industrial segments experienced also negative growth in the period. And with that, let me give the word to Trond Olav for the financial update.
Thank you, Arjen, and good morning, and welcome for me as well. We will start with the financial highlights for the quarter. In comparing year over year, revenues fell by around 12%, NOK 50 billion for Q1, driven by lower alumina prices. For Q1, we delivered an adjusted EBITDA of NOK 8.7 billion and a reported EBITDA of NOK 7.1 billion. Adjusting items for the quarter was around NOK 1.6 billion, where the main item was unrealized derivative loss mainly on LME-related contracts on NOK 1.5 billion. The adjusted EBIT for Q1 was NOK 6.1 billion, with a reported EBIT of NOK 4.4 billion. In addition to the adjusting items to EBIT A, there was NOK 100 million in adjusting items impacting EBIT related to impairments, mainly in exertions. The difference between the adjusted and the reported EBIT was therefore negative NOK 1.7 billion. Net financial expense for Q1 was a positive NOK 1.9 billion. This was driven by a foreign exchange gain of NOK 2.2 billion, mainly from unrealized effects on Euro-denominated power contracts and debt, where a stronger NOK gave a positive impact. Interest and other financial income was NOK 230 million, and interest and financial expenses was NOK 570 million. The income tax expense was NOK 1.9 billion in Q1, impacted by strong earnings before tax. The reported tax rate for Q1 was 31%. Overall, this resulted in an adjusted net income of NOK 4.1 billion with reported net income of NOK 4.3 billion. The total adjusting items to net income was NOK 280 million, which is the sum of the EBIT adjusting items plus the net foreign exchange gain of NOK 2.2 billion. and an income tax effect of NOK 250 million. Adjusted net income was up from NOK 4 billion in the same quarter last year, and up from NOK 1.7 billion in Q4. Consequently, adjusted earnings per share was 2.07 NOK per share for Q1 26, up from 1.63 NOK per share in Q1 25. Then moving to EBITDA and looking at the results Q1 versus Q4. Adjusted EBITDA increased by NOK 3.1 billion from NOK 5.6 billion to NOK 8.7 billion. The main drivers were higher alumina prices, improved downstream results and normalizing eliminations. This was partly offset by the energy results and stronger NOC compared to US dollar. Realized all-in aluminum and alumina prices contributed positively with around NOC 1.2 billion, where higher aluminum prices was partly offset by lower alumina prices. Upstream volume development had a net negative impact on NOK 300 million, with lower sales volumes in B&A, partly offset by slightly higher sales in aluminium metal. Raw material costs increased by NOK 50 million, mainly due to somewhat higher energy and carbon prices in aluminium metal. Extrusions had a positive seasonal development from increased sales volumes of about NOK 650 million, combined with a positive margin effect of approximately NOK 500 million. In addition, recycling results in metal markets improved by NOK 100 million. Furthermore, we saw a net negative impact on NOK 500 million, mainly driven by lower production and loss of price area differences in the energy business area. Fixed cost development was strong with the decreasing fixed cost in Q1 with an impact of NOK 550 million. This is mainly explained by NOK 300 million lower fixed cost in extrusions and NOK 200 million lower fixed cost in bauxite and alumina. We also saw negative NOK 700 million in currency effects, mainly driven by the strong Norwegian kroner compared to the US dollar. The final contribution of NOK 1.6 billion was given by NOK 900 million in net other effects, mainly commercial activities in metal markets and bauxite and aluminum, combined with realization of some previously eliminated internal margins, amounting to about NOK 600 million. Then moving to the debt development. And when looking at the debt development through the quarter, net debt increased by NOK 3.2 billion from Q4 2025. Starting from Q4, net debt of NOK 9.7 billion. We had a positive contribution of NOK 8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA in Q1. During Q1, we saw an increase in net operating capital of NOK 6.3 billion. The increase was driven by seasonal effects with increased sales at the start of the year and higher prices for our metal. Other operating cash flow was negative NOK 3.6 billion. This was mainly due to taxes paid and interest payments and various other cash cost adjustments. We had net cash-effective investments of NOK 2.7 billion in Q1. This reflects both the investment activity level in the businesses and cash flow outflow due to settlement for CapEx incurred in 2025, but paid in Q1. Put together, these elements resulted in a negative free cash flow of NOK 4 billion in Q1. There were no shareholder distribution in Q1, and we saw positive order effect of NOK 800 million. This was mainly driven by the positive FX effect on debt, partly offset by payments of some new leases. Moving on to adjustments to net debt, we saw an increase in hedging collateral and other by NOK 600 million, mainly due to higher prices. Our net positive position increased by NOK 400 million and other liabilities increased by NOK 100 million. All things considered, we ended up at an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q1 of NOK 21.6 billion. Then moving to the business areas, and starting with bauxite and alumina. Adjusted EBITDA for bauxite and alumina decreased from NOK 5.1 billion in Q1 2025 to NOK 750 million in Q1 2026. This was mainly driven by lower alumina prices, but partly offset by higher sales, supported by the good operational performance at the Alenorte refinery. Compared to Q4-25, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 1.4 billion to NOK 750 million in Q1-26, mainly driven by lower sales volumes and prices, as well as normalizing commercial results. This was partly offset by lower fixed costs and raw material costs. For Q2, we expect higher alumina production and sales. Realized alumina prices are estimated to decrease due to the needless supply disruptions impacting the commercial portfolio. We estimate that fully loaded raw material costs will increase, giving a negative impact on NOK 100 to 200 million. We expect lower energy costs of NOx 50 to 150 million based on lower Henry Hub gas prices and energy mix optimization. Fixed cost is estimated to increase by NOx 300 to 400 million from seasonal higher maintenance activities and social investments. Then moving to aluminium metal. Adjusted EBITDA increased from NOK 2.5 billion in Q1 2025 to NOK 5 billion this quarter. The main drivers year over year were higher all-in metal prices and reduced alumina cost, partly offset by negative currency effects due to the stronger NOK compared to the US dollar. Compared to Q1-26 to Q4-25, adjusted EBITDA for aluminum and metal increased by NOK 1.3 billion. This was driven by higher all-in metal prices, including realized premiums, and lower alumina cost. Fish costs remained flat from Q4-25, while raw material costs increased marginally due to energy costs. This brings me then to the guiding for the next quarter. For Q2, aluminum metal has booked 67% of the primary production at $3,000 per metric ton. This includes the effect of a strategic hedging program. Aluminum metal has also booked 51% of the premiums affecting Q2 at $571 per ton. We expect realized premiums to end up in the range of $530 to $580 per ton. Due to the Middle East situation, we expect lower sales volumes. On the cost side, carbon costs are expected to increase NOK 150 to 250 million, and energy costs are expected to increase by NOK 200 to 300 million, driven by coal and LME links in some of the power contracts. Fixed costs are expected to be stabled. Then moving to metal markets. And for metal markets, the adjusted EBITDA increased from a negative NOK 14 million in Q1 2025 to a positive NOK 540 million in Q1 2026 due to higher results from both recycling and sourcing and trading activities. Excluding the currency and inventory valuation effects, the result for Q1-26 was NOK 590 million, up from NOK 62 million in Q1-25. Compared to Q4, the adjusted EBITDA for metal markets increased from negative NOK 56 million to NOK 540 million due to higher results both from recycling and from sourcing and trading activity. Recycling delivered its strongest results since mid-2023, with an adjusted EBITDA of NOK 160 million. As mentioned by Avin earlier, we are first and foremost seeing the strong recycling margins in the US, where product premiums have increased more than the scrap net need. For Q2, we expect the strong trend in recycling to continue, with even better margins than in Q1. In our conversion segment, we anticipate a normalization of the contribution from sourcing and trading activities in Q2. And, as always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Then moving to hydro-extrusions. And in extrusions, the adjusted EBITDA increased year-over-year from NOK 1.2 billion to NOK 1.3 billion, driven by strong recycling margins. Compared to the previous quarter, the adjusted EBITDA improved from negative NOK 63 million in Q4-25 to a positive NOK 1.3 billion in Q1-26, driven by higher recycling margins and lower fixed costs, partly offset by somewhat lower sales and higher variable costs. In particular, this quarter's results was driven by improved recycling margins in the U.S., but also supported by overall positive cash cost development and some stabilization in extrusion markets. For Q2, for extrusions, we should underline that we always compare the coming quarter to the same quarter last year due to the strong seasonality in this business. Looking at Q2, we expect higher sales volumes. The current strong recycling margins in the U.S. are expected to continue into Q2, and overall, margins for the business area are stable. Should the current foreign exchange rate continue through Q2, there will be a negative translation effect into the extrusion results measured in the vision column. Then, moving to the final business area, energy. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 decreased to NOK 780 million from NOK 1.2 billion in Q1 2025. The decrease was mainly due to lower production, due to power plant maintenance, as well as loss on price area differences. Compared to Q4, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 1.1 billion to NOK 780 million, mainly due to lower production, again due to the power plant maintenance that we flagged in Q4, and also the loss on price area differences. The price area difference loss was NOK 186 million in Q1-26, down from a gain of NOK 37 million in Q4-25. Looking into Q2, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in energy. For the next quarter, production is expected to fall well below historical Q2 levels due to the low water levels in the reservoirs and also the lowest snow levels seen in many decades in Norway. Price area differences are expected to improve somewhat compared to Q1. And this ends the business presentation. And with that, I end the financial update and give the word back to Eivind.
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