4/16/2026

speaker
Joëlle Ferrand
VP of Investor Relations

Good morning, and thank you for joining our FY26 Q3 Net Sales Call. I'm Joëlle Ferrand, VP of Investors Relations, and I'm pleased to welcome Hélène de Tissot, our Global EVP Finance and Tech. Hélène will begin with a brief overview of our Q3 performance, after which we'll open the call for questions. Please note, unless otherwise stated, all sales growth figures discussed today refer to organic net sales. With that, I'll hand it over to you, Hélène.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Thank you, Joël, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin discussion on our Q3 sales results, I will say a word regarding our press release of March 27, in which we confirmed discussions are taking place regarding a potential business combination with one firm. As stated, We did not intend to communicate further until either an agreement is reached or discussions are terminated. Discussions are ongoing, so at this stage, I have no further comments to make. Returning to the topic for our call of sales performance in Q3, today we report, as expected, a sequential improvement in organic head sales in Q3 compared to H1, with plus 0.1%. Reported sales are down minus 14.6%, with negative effects at minus 7%, and perimeter impact of minus 7.7%. The effect is mainly due to U.S. dollar, Indian rupee, and Turkish lira, and the perimeter effect is due to the disposals of our wines, the interior blue business, and Finnish brands. Volumes in Q3 are back to growth, with plus 4%, within which, and important to note, we have strategic international brand volumes growing in Q3 at plus 3%. When excluding the US and China markets, which contracted minus 12% and minus 7% respectively, sales in the rest of the world are growing strongly at plus 5%. Sales have improved in markets across all regions in Q3, with strong momentum in emerging markets, and continued growth in several mature markets. Markets that have turned to growth in Q3 include travel retail at plus 11%, UK, mid-single-digit growth, Spain, double-digit growth, Korea, double-digit growth, and Brazil, low single-digit growth. Markets in which organic growth momentum is maintained or is accelerating include India, plus 11%, Japan, high single-digit growth, and Turkey, double-digit growth. We are exploiting evolving consumer trends to capture growth. This includes actions that address consumer trends and needs, including, for example, addressing affordability with revenue growth management, smaller formats, and standard and premium brands, experiences with music festival activations, convenience, including through RTV and through targeted store activations, and broadening the consumption location with the launch of low and low alcohol products. Moving now to our year-to-date performance. Year-to-date organic sales are down minus 4.4%, with the U.S. minus 14% and China minus 24%. Reported sales are down minus 14.8%, with FX negative minus 5.9%, and perimeter minus 4.5%. Excluding the U.S. and China, sales in the rest of the world are in growth plus 1%. Volumes year-to-date down minus 1.6% in total, of which strategic international brands volumes are down minus 1.4%. When excluding the U.S. and China markets, strategic international brands volumes are up plus 1.4%. We are actively managing what is within our control, adapting our resources with agility, deploying our efficiency program, steering the organization to fuel our future growth, and optimize our cash generation. The global environment remains volatile and uncertain, notably with the conflict in the Middle East. In these circumstances, along with our diversified premium brand portfolio, we benefit from our balanced and goals-based geographic footprint. Our direct exposure to the Middle East is circa 2% of group sales. We expect a pool of sales to be impacted. Though the scale will naturally be dependent on the duration of the conflict, I will return to this in an updated outlook. We are monitoring the situation closely. Coming now to take a closer look at sales in our markets and regions, beginning with our number one must-read market, the U.S. we have organic sales down minus 12% in Q3 and minus 14% year-to-date. Market conditions in the U.S. remain soft, with the spirit market, excluding RTG, down circa minus 5% compared to circa minus 3% one year ago. After a soft Q2 holiday season, Q3 bubble spirit market performance improved to minus 4%, slightly ahead of the year-to-date trend, The on-trade channel is performing better than the off-trade, demonstrating that channel's relevance for consumers who are prioritizing experiences and social connections. Gains made over the past year in our sell-out gap to market were sustained in Q3, with that gap holding at CECA 2 points. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. remains low, and affordability remains a key issue for some consumers. We see shoppers readily expand on discretionary items. We are adapting to these changing conditions, for example, with small pack sizes and targeted promotional investment on key brands so our products remain relevant and affordable for consumers. We have as well launched significant innovation in 1526, recruiting new consumers and maintaining desirability and bringing incremental value to our customers. Notable recent examples include Absolute Tabasco, targeting key evolving consumer occasions, such as brunch, and expanding the absolute drink strategy to be observed, such as the Bloody Mary or Spicy Lemonade, which particularly lean into daytime consumption occasions. Within the Jameson family, we launched Jameson Triple Triple, expanding our Jameson offer for whiskey enthusiasts and leveraging the more affordable wholesale opportunities. and as well money looping for fun, flavored recruitment of new consumers. We believe that our bold portfolio is well positioned within the U.S. market, and we continue to activate our brands to meet consumer needs across price points. We are maximizing the consumer impact and value creation of price promotions. Our teams leverage our regular management expertise and AI tools to plan and execute those promotions at the optimum depth and frequency. While the U.S. market remains soft, we are convinced that the current challenges are primarily cyclical, linked to affordability issues. However, we are not complacent, and we monitor with vigilance the changing consumer trends, adapting and flexing our brand strategies in response. We remain confident in the recovery of the spirit market. Moving to India, our number two market by net sales, with double-digit organic sales growth in Q3, plus 11%, year-to-date, plus 6%. When excluding Imperial Blue, year-to-date sales are growing by 9%. I remind you that the Imperial Blue disposal closed end of November, so sales are excluded from organic performance since December. The Indian market continues to enjoy dynamic consumer fundamentals, and sales benefit from strong underlying demand and continuing premiumization. Growth in Q3 is growth-based across the portfolio, with imported spirits in strong double-digit growth, including Jemison, Absolute, and Scotch brands, the Genivet, Chivas, and Royal Salute, and with strong growth from local brands, especially Brands Pride, and with the launch of the new exclamation range of spirits. Moving to China, organic sales in Q3 contracted, minus 7%. Year-to-date is at minus 24%. Q3 sales benefited from the later timing of Chinese New Year. However, underlying sellout was soft in line with the cautious sentiment of the trade ahead of the festive period. The market is not yet stabilized. The macro context remains challenging with weak consumer confidence and tightened regulatory environments. Year-to-date sales of Martel and then Scotch whiskeys are declining, while premium brands enjoy positive sales momentum. Let's move now to global travel retail. Global travel retail Q3 organic sales by growth plus 11% and plus 2% year-to-date. Global travel numbers remain strong and continue to present positive dynamics with all regions showing travel numbers ahead of pre-COVID. Within this positive environment and as expected, Sales in global travel retail are rebounding, with a resumption of cognac sales in China duty-free. Sales in Asia also benefited from an active festive marketing program celebrating Chinese New Year, including travel retail limited editions, leading to strong double-digit sell-out growth for Martel over the period. I am encouraged to see Chinese travels demonstrating enduring strong attraction and consideration toward Martel, and our ability to engage with them through impactful activations. Remaining in Asia with duty-free, I also want to highlight that Korea duty-free is now back to growth this quarter. Elsewhere, Europe and the Americas continue to present positive momentum in sell-out, notably cruises in the Americas. As you can imagine, the Middle East faces travel disruptions as a result of conflict there and full-year sales in global travel retail, are now expected to be in slight decline. In the rest of the world, and beginning with markets in Europe, we see conditions improving in a number of important markets there. Organic sales in Europe are back to growth in Q3 with a prescribed descent, including in Spain, which benefits from the earlier Easter, also back to growth in the UK, and with growth continuing in Ireland as well as in Eastern Europe. France and Germany continue to decline in Q3. In Asia, rest of the world region, Q3 organ sales and growth at the 60%. Focusing on Asia, when we exclude India and China, sales grew strongly in Q3 with double-digit growth, benefiting from the timing of Chinese New Year in some of the Southeast Asian markets. Here, Japan continued its good momentum, and Korea, which was in decline in 2020, the first semester, is now back to growth, supported by the timing of the Lunar New Year. In America, Brazil is back to growth this quarter, following the easing of the impacts of the methanol crisis. Canada continues to enjoy its good momentum. And finally, in Africa and the Middle East, which is admissible due to organic growth, Q3 sees organic growth continue notably in Turkey, and strong underlying momentum continues in South Africa. Now, moving to our outlook. In a context that remains volatile and uncertain, we continue to see fiscal year 26 as a transition year, and in line with our expectations, organic net sales strongly improve in Q3. Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, we now expect organic net sales to decline by minus 3 to minus 4% for the full year. E&P investment ratio expected to remain at circa 16%, We continue to invest to increase our brand's desirability with sharp allocation, efficiency, innovation, and experiences. We continue to defend our organic operating margin to the fullest extent possible, supported by strict cost control and the implementation of our Fiscal Year 26 to Fiscal Year 29 $1 billion operational efficiency program, including the adaptation of our Fit for Future organization. I remind you that we are on track to deliver one-third of those efficiencies within this fiscal year. Our focus on cash generation continues, with strategic investments for fiscal year 26 now expected to be below €700 million and maintaining strong operating working capital management. We are aiming for cash conversion of circa 80% and above this fiscal year. We expect FX impact to be significantly negative. In conclusion, we have two of our four must-win markets in strong growth in Q3, with growth in India accelerating and with a rebound in global travel retail. We have markets that are maintaining the already positive momentum, such as Canada, Ireland, Turkey, and Japan. And we have markets that are now coming back to growth, having declined in H1, including the UK, Korea, and Brazil. I believe this demonstrates the resilience of our diversified model from both the portfolio and geographic footprint point of view, the key strengths of the Pernod Ricard business model. On that note, I will now conclude my prepared remarks.

speaker
Joëlle Ferrand
VP of Investor Relations

Thank you, Hélène. We will now take your questions, but please, I must ask you to respect that this call is to discuss Q3 sales results, and we won't be able to address any questions regarding brand performance. So no more than two questions each, please. Over to the operator.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one under touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Celine Pannuti at JP Morgan.

speaker
Celine Pannuti
Analyst, JP Morgan

Good morning, Hélène and Joël. Thank you for taking my question. My first question will be on the outlook. Can you try to help us understand? Clearly, you said that travel retail will be slightly negative for the full year. It doesn't seem that you have had an impact in Q3, or maybe I'm mistaken. So can you explain what you expect to be getting much weaker in the fourth quarter? And beyond travel, retail, can you give us a bit of a steer by regions on whether there are other impacts that we should be aware of? And maybe on the same vein, if you could tell whether in Q3, clearly there's been some benefit from Easter and the Lunar New Year, the Chinese New Year, and how much of that helped Q3 and could be a headwind for Q4. So that was my first question. And then my second question is on the U.S., Clearly, you have benefited as well from a better market. What is your sense, as we look into Q4, where we will have less of an inventory impact? If you could comment on the situation there. And then it seems that as well there has been a bit more promotional environment. Could you give us a bit of a steer on what's happening in your pricing overall for that region? Thank you. That country, rather. Thank you.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Thank you. I will try to give you two answers to what I believe is more like five questions. Hopefully, I will manage your expectations. First, Let me clarify what we are facing, especially I think your first question is mainly on the impact on the conflict in the Middle East. So that's true that there was already some impact in Q3, especially obviously the month of March, which has been significantly disrupted, especially in the affected area. So it's not a big impact on the Q3 performance, but to give you some color, If there was no conflict in the Middle East, Q3 would probably have been more close to, let's say, something like plus 0.5, 0.6% growth. So the impact, obviously, is, again, mainly in the affected area in March, both domestic markets and travel retail. When it comes to the distance to go and the Q4 in travel retail, it's fair to assume that as far as we speak today, the conflict is in place. It has some disruption, of course, in the affected areas. There could be as well some limited, I would say, secondary impacts outside of the affected areas, especially when you think about logistics and as well disruption in terms of limited disruption in terms of supply, probably as well some impact in terms of caution and willingness to travel. That's what we are taking into consideration to modestly, I would say, change the outlook for the year. Your second question was, I think, in terms of technicalities in Q3. I would say when you take all those positive and negative elements, technical ones, it's probably more or less neutral. You mentioned some of the favorable impact, you're absolutely right, and with the earlier Easter, this is, for instance, definitely the reason why Spain is back to growth in Q3, where the market is still under pressure, and this will, in a way, reverse what is normalized in Q4. Chinese New Year, of course, as well, you're right, this is a later timing compared to last year, but please keep in mind as well that last year there was a a kind of significant impact of the service uncertainty, especially in the U.S. That has brought our shipments a bit higher than what would have happened without the, I would say, Liberation Day event. So all in all, that's more or less neutral. And the improvement that we were expecting and that we have delivered into three are absolutely not technical. They are real. When you mentioned then Q4, I think in the U.S., so the, I mean, obviously our focus is to keep closing the gap versus the market. I mentioned in my introduction that the gap now is at the second two points, and we are holding that gap. There's lots of excitement in the team when it comes to Q4 activation program. Maybe let me name a few. We have more to come with the exciting partnership with Major League Soccer with Jemison. There's a lot happening in terms of festivals with Coachella and some other musical festivals in Q4 where brands would be very well engaged especially Absolute, but not only Absolute. We have, as well, very strong innovation and pipeline in the days and weeks to come. We launched Absolute Tabasco, as well, Malibudo, and Absolute Ocean Spray, new flavors in the weeks to come. So lots of excitement and busy activation for our brands and our portfolio in the U.S. in Q4. You were, I think, asking a question on promotions. Obviously, this is an environment which is quite busy in terms of promotions, and we are actively leveraging our capability as well to make sure that all our promotion efforts are extremely efficient and, I would say, targeted. And this is, as well, just a part of what keeps our team busy for the end weeks to come in the U.S. and elsewhere. Excellent. Thank you so much. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Sanjit Aujla, UBS.

speaker
Sanjit Aujla
Analyst, UBS

Good morning, Hélène and Joël. A couple from me, please. Firstly, I think you highlighted 4% volume growth in the quarter. I think that would imply price mix is running at minus 4. Can you just help us understand within that the composition between headline pricing and any product and geographic mix impacts. Clearly, I guess India is weighing a little bit on that, but really trying to get a sense of underlying pricing, please. And then clearly, you highlighted today, Helene, the demand impact from what's going on in the Middle East. But can you just help us understand a little bit what the implications are for your cost of sales? Just remind us perhaps on your hedging policy there and maybe any early sensitivities on what that could mean for COGS, please. Thank you.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Thank you. Your first question, you're absolutely right. When you look at Q3, it is very positive growth momentum for volume, which means that price mix is under pressure. I wouldn't consider that this is deteriorating when it comes to price. It's It's quite subdued, the price environment that we speak, but no deterioration to flag. The mix is obviously negative, especially when you think about the U.S. and China net sales, which, as you know, this is quite different from our underlying performance in both markets. with the inventory adjustments that we were flagging from the beginning of this fiscal year that are impacting our selling versus the underlying demand. So this has, I would say, an additional negative impact in terms of price mix. But price is subdued and negative mix is made into a market mix. The second question in terms of the impact and the conflict in the Middle East on our margin, and a bit more specifically, the exposure to the energy cost. First, let me say that for the 5026 operating margin, which we are not changing. We want to protect it as much as we can. This conflict should not have a significant impact And the reason for that is that, as you were alluded to, we have some hedging instruments in place that are protecting us from the exposure of the spot price volatility. On top of that, as you know, the impact that could hit us in terms of web groups would be for a significant part deeper in terms of P&L impacts because of the portfolio that we have. So, all you know, no significant impact for the margin protection by fiscal year 26.

speaker
Salman

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America.

speaker
Andrea Pistacchi
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you. Yes, good morning, Elaine and Joel. My first question is on China. I was hoping you could give a bit more color there. Are there I mean, any signs of the crackdown easing? It's been going on now for about nine months. Where do you reckon underlying performance is, stock levels? And most of all, given all the above, how are you thinking about the outlook in China Q4 and maybe next year? And then the second question is, excluding US and China, and you've commented quite a bit on this already, but excluding the US and China, the group had a strong quarter last It's a plus 5%. I think in H1, ex-US and China, growth was around zero, and the same in fiscal 25, growth around zero. So you've given some color already, but besides phasing effects, besides comp effects, in what markets do you genuinely think or see that there is an improvement in the underlying performance? I mean, India's consistently strong, but other markets where you're seeing things get better. Thank you. Yes.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Thank you. So, first question. In China, it's true that, to be fair, the environment is not evolving significantly. I mean, the consumer confidence remains quite weak. And we don't see yet any tangible evidence of an improvement. So the underlying sell-out is running at quite similar rates in Q3 than they were in H1, so with no improvement in consumer demand. So for Chinese New Year, it's been, I would say, a bit contrasted because it's been soft in China, as expected, and very much in line with the trade sentiments that we were sharing in our H1 communications. But it's been quite strong in duty-free. So it shows as well that Martel is a very strong brand. And when Chinese consumers are, I would say, in a more confident mood, especially when they travel, they have it. quite positive consideration towards Martel. To be fair, we've been as well quite busy in activating Martel in Asia Duty Free. We have as well strong limited editions that have been quite successful. But globally, Cognac category as a whole remain under pressure during Chinese New Year, especially in the South region, which is, as you know, quite important for the Cognac category. When it comes to Q4, Q4 is a quarter where it's a low quarter, and it's not a big quarter in terms of seasonality for Martel. So we expect Q4 to be in a modest growth when it comes to China, with the strong positive momentum on our premium brands to continue. So your second question was, sorry, I'm a bit lost.

speaker
Andrea Pistacchi
Analyst, Bank of America

The second question was markets ex-US and China where you're genuinely seeing sort of improving momentum, excluding phasing, comps, et cetera.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Yes. So first, as I said in the first question, I don't think you should be distracted by those comp things because all you know, it's almost neutral because, again, the US was having a very high comp. So there are definitely some improvements in the NIO trend that we were expecting. So let's start by our two most win markets, Trevor Retail and India. So Trevor Retail, we are back to business, I would say, in the China DT3 with Matter, which is obviously materializing in a quite dynamic and the other geographies are in very good momentum. India, acceleration in India, which was as well expected, both because the change in the Marshall policy impact is easing, and secondly, we have an acceleration of our portfolio, both imported one and local one. which is, as you know, exactly the reason why, as well, we were quite happy to share Imperial Blue Business so that we can really focus on accelerating those, I would say, two beautiful legs of our portfolio in India. And Exclamation is a strong innovation. It's still early days, but we are quite happy with the dynamic there. And it's not the only region where things are improving. So, Maybe let's stay in Asia for a while, and Korea is improving. So this is good news. Q3 is back to growth. Japan is still growing quite strongly. If I move now to maybe Africa, so Africa, I would say, except the Middle East conflict, we have a strong momentum, which is quite in line with the H1 performance. In America, Brazil, back to growth. This was as well expected. I mean, the recovery as well as the less than low prices. And Canada is in a good momentum, as you know. And when it comes to Europe, I would say, so I put aside Spain because of the Easter impact, but UK is back to growth. And we have as well a continued good momentum in many other markets in Europe, such as Ireland, Nordic, and Eastern Europe.

speaker
Andrea Pistacchi
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thank you very much.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

You're welcome.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Lawrence Viette, Barclays.

speaker
Lawrence Viette
Analyst, Barclays

Morning, Elena Joel. Thanks very much for the questions. Two from me, please. Firstly, in the U.S., you changed your route to market at the end of the summer. I'm just wondering how that change has performed versus your expectations and whether there's been any disruption in the U.S. market as a result of that change. Usually, you would comment on market changes as leading to disruption, but we've not seen any comments to that effect in the U.S. And then secondly, you paid the same interim dividend as you paid for the last couple of years. I'm just wondering, what would you need to see in changing circumstances to force you to change that policy? Of course, your net day EBITDA level is slightly higher than your target range. Just wondering if there's anything that could happen that would cause you to change your dividend payout levels. Thank you very much.

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

So maybe I'll start by your second question. I mean, let's be very direct. We have confirmed the intention to maintain the dividend in February, and we are announcing the payment of the dividend installment, the first installment of dividend in July, as usual. So I think it's quite consistent in terms of message, which is no changes. Your first question, in terms of route to market, you're absolutely right. And by the way, the route to market in many countries, but starting with the U.S., is obviously a key element to make sure that we have a very strong partnership with our wholesalers to really focus on excellence in execution. So a new route to market relationship, I would say, has been put in place over last summer, and they were as well, Salman, additional changes very recently with the sales of the RNDC business to raise in 10 states. So our team has been working hand in hand with wholesalers to really make sure that this evolution of our distributor ecosystem, I would say, is happening in a very smooth and focused on excellence in execution way on both fronts, for artists and for the wholesalers, and that's exactly what's happening right now, even with the recent evolution, so that obviously we can limit very significantly any type of disruption that could happen.

speaker
Salman

Thank you. So just to confirm, you see no disruption at all from the U.S.

speaker
Lawrence Viette
Analyst, Barclays

market?

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Exactly. That's our top priority, to make sure that there is no disruption. So this is the focus of the team. So we are confident that they're going to manage to have a smooth transition, if I can use this word.

speaker
Lawrence Viette
Analyst, Barclays

Super. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Simon Hills City.

speaker
Simon Hills
Analyst, Citi

Thanks. Morning, Ellen. Morning, Joelle. So my first question is just going back to the Middle East impact in the quarter and looking forward. I mean, Ellen, you indicated that without the Middle East impact, perhaps group organics sales would be up about 50 bps better. Can you just drill down a little bit more into what you saw in terms of the impact of the conflict in March? Am I right to assume that basically the Middle East travel retail business was basically closed in March. So we should think about that being down pretty well 100%. But what about the performance you saw in some of the markets around the region? I'm thinking particularly like Turkey, just be interested in some more color there. And just associated with that, have you seen any supply disruption issues yet around some of the fuel rationing restrictions we're starting to hear around in some of the Southeast Asian markets? So that's my first question. And then secondly, briefly on the US, you talked about a better performance in the on-premise that you're seeing. Can you give a bit more color there about the on-premise versus off-premise growth rates you're seeing? And is your growth gap versus the market the same in both channels?

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Yes. Thank you. So let's start with your first question. So, I mean, your assumptions are basically right. March has been almost... zero for these affected areas for obvious reasons and obviously same thing for the duty-free business with everything that happened in terms of airspace closure and so on. So this is perfectly what you were assuming and this started, as you know, very early March, so the month of March has been impacted by that. No no significant impact, negative impact in Turkey. You are referring to Turkey. No, this is not something that we are facing as we speak. And your question about supply disruption, so it's true that there is some pressure on that, some, let's say, potential threat, and our teams are extremely engaged to make sure that they can get the right supply for the weeks to come. So I would say we are very closely monitoring that as we speak. For the U.S., a question on trade. Yes, the on trade is a bit better. What I think is very positive about it is that, first, as you know, we have a kind of overexposure to the on trade in the U.S. when you think about our portfolio. we've been as well very much accelerating the activation in the on-trade recently for, I would say, a very good reason because our brands can really, I would say, showcase and recruit consumers in the on-trade and there was a need to reinforce that a bit and it showed that well in terms of consumer behaviors and willingness to socialize and to celebrate the fact that the on-trade is quite dynamic, that this trend I would say consumer need is there and remains quite powerful. No significant difference, I would say, in terms of gap or gap to the market in the on-trade versus the off-trade. But again, you can expect us to be within acceleration mode in terms of activation in the on-trade.

speaker
Salman

Got it. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Trevor Sterling, Bernstein. Please go ahead.

speaker
Trevor Sterling
Analyst, Bernstein

Hi, Hélène and Joël. Two questions from my side, please. The first one, Hélène, you very kindly told us about the direct impact of the conflict on your sales in the Middle East, but particularly in the United States, are you starting to see any second-order impact of the very weak consumer confidence? Is that feeding through into consumption trends in March in the U.S., or maybe it's too early to say? And the second question, you explained a lot about the moving parts in Q4, and then your guidance implies a little bit of a further acceleration in Q4, and it sounds as if that's partly because China is going to be a little bit less worse, and then the momentum you've seen in many other countries is going to be sustained. Is that a fair summary?

speaker
Hélène de Tissot
Global EVP Finance and Tech

Thank you, Trevor. So your first question is, I would say I don't think there's right now a significant or tangible impact in terms of consumer confidence because of the conflict, obviously. I don't think it's helping anyone in terms of optimism. But let's not be extrapolating of what we are not facing today. And the impact of the conflict for us is really what I was... describing before, which is obviously affected areas and some limited impact outside those affected areas in terms of probably limited supply disruptions and probably as well caution in the travel, in the willingness to travel. But nothing more than that as we speak. When it comes to Q4, I mean, To be fair, when you look at the modest change we are bringing in terms of outlook, this is more flying to a kind of modest decline in Q4 due to the Middle East conflict. As you mentioned, and I think I was as well alluding to that, Q4 in China is expected to be better than Q3, again, because it's a low season for cognac. And we expect improving sales momentum in our premium brands to drive that growth in Q4. In the other geography, I think it's probably a continuation of the improving trends that we are delivering in Q3 and positive momentum for the markets that are already in a good place in each one. When it comes to the U.S., again, the full year trend itself is very likely to be much worse than the underlying trends because of the inventory adjustments and the high comp last year linked to the tariff uncertainty.

speaker
Trevor Sterling
Analyst, Bernstein

Super. Thank you very much, Hélène.

speaker
Joëlle Ferrand
VP of Investor Relations

Thank you, Trevor, and thank you all. We will now end the call. Have a great rest of the day. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining the conference. It's now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.

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