PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Accel Axiata's earnings call for the first nine months of the financial year ended September 30th. My name is Inder and I'm the head of investor relations for Accel Axiata and I will be acting as your coordinator today. There will be a short presentation where all participants will be in a listen only mode. Instructions will be given on how to register your questions when we get to the question and answer session. As a reminder, this session today is being recorded for repay purposes. With me on the call today are Ibu Dian, our Chief Executive Officer, Pak Budi, our Chief Financial Officer, Pak David, our Chief Commercial Officer for Consumer, and Pak Abhijit, our Chief Commercial Officer for Enterprise and Home. Now, Ibu Dian will share the highlights for the first nine months of 2021, which will then be followed by the Q&A session. I will now hand the call over to Ibu Dian.

Thank you, Indar, and good afternoon to everyone. We are happy to report a good set of third quarter number in a tough quarter, which was impacted by the COVID-19 Delta surge that happened in early July and associated movement restriction. This result is due to good traction of our products in the market, supported by our improved network performance and also our strategy. As a result of the consistent execution and implementation of our operational excellence strategy, We are on track to achieve our mission of becoming the number one conference operator in Indonesia. The key highlights in the third quarter and first nine months are as follows. Our revenue grew sequentially for the second consecutive quarter, rising 1.5% Q on Q due to strong product traction in the market. EBITDA improved as well. increasing by 1.5% Q on Q with healthy margins maintained above 50% in the third quarter of 2021. Our profit sustained and as a result, we recorded 300 billion rupiah in net profits in Q3 2021, bringing the first nine months of this year to net profits of 1 trillion rupiah. We managed to add 1.2 million customers this quarter while still maintaining our ARPU at 37,000 UPR. We remain the most data-centric operator with 95% of service revenue from data and 92% smartphone penetration. Both are industry-leading metrics. Finally, we continue to sustain network investment with 4G now in 458 cities and areas with more than 69,000 for GPTS. So this slide showing an update of what has happened in Q3 and onwards. The consolidation in the industry will be positive for competition as it has created a more balanced industry structure. We continue to progress with our transformation and digitalizing our business process with emphasis on automation and business efficiency. This is something that was accelerated by pandemic as well. We also continue to be on the path of achieving our vision to be the number one converged operator in Indonesia with the launch of XL Satu Fiber, which is the first product of its kind in the market. Positively, Market momentum is returning with both the consumer confidence index and the mobility index showing a bounce in September 2021. We see this as opportunity for a further market recovery and better performance in Q4 and heading into 2022. The more digital way of life is also an opportunity for us as an internet service provider. There are also risks to performance which include a COVID-19 resurgence with new variants which would derail the positive momentum we are seeing and rising inflation which could hurt consumers' spend. These are some key indicators, both finally and operationally, and as we discussed before, all of our metrics are moving positively in the right direction. with revenue, EBITDA, PAT, number of subs, as well as ARPU. We remain focused on customer centricity, which is putting the customer first, and as such, have developed a proper segmented approach for our customers. Our Excel brand is focusing on families, which is the most relevant and remains an untapped opportunity in Indonesia. Thus, our Paket Akrab, which was launched in Q2 and allows for sharing of quotas between family members, is to address this segment's needs. We have further expanded on this with the launch of our Excel Satu Fiber Package, which offers a comfort play for families in Indonesia and is the first of its kind in the market. Meanwhile, our Axis brand is focused on the youth segment and offers customizability of products to allow this segment to tailor, make their own experience. Both brands continue to do well in the market and within their respective segments. Customer segmentation is one part of our strategy. But this goes in tandem with giving our customers a fully digital experience as part of our overall transformation. And this is also to support our aim to move away from only price gain. This is where we have gone end-to-end in automating and digitalizing our business process from digital touchpoints and digital care at the customer's front end to a more efficient digital distribution where channels are digitalized and aligned, plus the offerings are seamless. Finally, on the back end, as network automation to ensure that this is done on end-to-end basis across the business. Network development remains a key task where our BDS count is now above 153,000, with more than 69,000 4G BTS, and our 4G services is available in 458 cities and areas. Fiberization also continues to be a focus as we prepare for the investment on 5G, where close to 50% of our end sites are fiberized. Finally, our guidance for the year. We aim to grow our revenue in line with market, but we aim to continue our strong momentum to finish the year on a good note. EBITDA margin guidance remains for low 50%. While we have raised our CapEx guidance to around 8.5 trillion rupiah, as these investments will be made to strengthen network quality in all areas, and particularly where changing traffic patterns because of the pandemic have become the new norm. Thank you, and let us proceed Thank you Budhian.

Okay everyone, just a quick instructions. To ask a question, please press the raise your hand button and you will be added to the queue. When we call your name, please unmute yourself and ask your questions. We request that if you are asking a question, please put your full name and company name to allow us to identify who you are. Please strictly keep your questions to a maximum of two, and this will allow other people to ask questions. We shall end the conference call sharp at 3pm Jakarta time. Our first question is from the line of Sachin Mittal. Sachin, please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Two key questions. I mean, if we compare Excel's nine months to one of your local competitor, Intosat's nine months, there's a big divergence in revenue growth. And a part of that actually comes from their ability to grow ARPU. While in your case, ARPU has been more or less stagnant. And even in this quarter, despite improved competitive environment, we saw almost 9%, 10% drop in data pricing. So could you explain, have you not seen the impact of benign competition on your numbers so far and data pricing dropped so much in this quarter? That's question number one. And question two is on, when you talk about 5G, CAPEX and OPEX efficiencies, could you talk in more detail, what are the timing you're looking at and what kind of CAPEX and OPEX efficiencies you're talking about for the 5G network? Thank you.

Yeah, so let me take the first question. So the first question was regarding our ARPU and the data pricing they give in the market, correct? Yep. Okay, so I think, yeah, so we have seen maintaining the ARPU in a positive sense. So we have been able to grow with more than one million subscribers. So we have a positive growth of users in many different areas. And we have been able to sustain the ARPU. I think that is more or less aligned with what other competitors have done. So you were mentioning one, I believe that the ARPU also has been flattish quarter on quarter, right? So I think in that sense, I think we are aligned with the market. We are able to maintain the ARPUs of our customers. But we have been able to grow the customer base, which is a positive sign. Now, regarding the data pricing, the decreasing data pricing, which I believe it's not as big as you were mentioning, but there are different topics on why the yields are still decreasing. And it's not related to the pricing in the market, most of it. So one thing that is happening is that customers are migrated to packets that are definitely a little bit lower yield, and they are using more of the data. They are using to a higher extent the packets than that they were using before. So that's one of the trends that we are seeing. The other trend, that this is a little bit of mathematics on this, but the reality is that we are growing much faster in those areas where the average yield is lower. That means that even if our yield looks that it's decreasing, what is happening is that we are growing faster in certain areas than in other. But it is not to do with the pricing itself. So I think those are the two topics regarding the yield. And again, we don't see it related to the data pricing. We have not dropped data prices.

Can I ask a follow up on that? Yeah. This seems to, I mean, 3% data revenue growth seems quite pedestrian, you know, so there's a clear need to change the approach. So have we seen a change in approach in the last three months or two months in the market or by you? Because data revenue growth cannot be growing 3% when the data is growing at, you know, 30, 40%, right? question is the revenue the growth on data revenue is too pedestrian you know 3-4% growth in data revenue when the data traffic is growing 30-40% you know, just kills the whole growth of data traffic, right? So are we looking at the, are we looking to change something here or no, it's still okay?

So, yeah, if I hear that properly, the 30, 40% you mean year on year, right? That's right, yeah. Correct, correct. So I think the quarter on quarter is more or less aligned, but it's true that year on year, you can see that the data traffic has grown much more than the revenue. And I think that is the consequence of the data pricing that has come in the market, right? So you can see the same pattern for all the operators. And yes, we are completely aligned in order to change that trend. Actually, this quarter, we have already changed our pricing. We are the first operator, I believe, increasing prices, increasing the yield via different things. And one of them is reducing the benefits that we are giving in some of our packets. So we truly believe that the big upside in this market is now in order to start monetizing better uh the data we have a market situation in the last year that we are trying hard to reverse and to have an inflection point on on that one and as i'm saying during october we have improved our improved or increased our pricing literally changing the prices up or by reducing the benefits in most of our in most of our portfolio and in quite a significant way

Got it.

So it was your second question. Again, Sachin, could you just repeat that?

You have talked about 5g network Apex and OPEX savings and efficiencies due to omnibus law. Could you tell us about more details about that? What kind of sharing are we looking at? And any concrete possibilities on that area?

So you're referring to our capex spending, is it?

Yeah, capex. I think you mentioned on slide number opportunities. I think in your slide, you mentioned opportunities from omnibus law on 5G capex and OPEX savings. So trying to understand that statement from your presentation.

Yeah, regarding that, but I guess 5G is something that we're looking at, but it won't be within this year. I think we've been sharing that story, that 5G, a 5G business case is something that we don't see in the horizon nearby. And in terms of CapEx guideline that Bu Dian said earlier, we're looking at somewhere around 8.5. Fitsum Assamnew Andargieel, A billion capex or the year we're looking at possibility to go. Fitsum Assamnew Andargieel, Around that figures and the reason for that is more on to serve the change in the traffic pattern, as you indicated earlier, how the Africa keep growing even this year, yet today, it is more than 30%. is more on because of this pandemic that people changing their behavior from home is more, less mobility, people stay at home or stay in the office. So all this become new normal, hence we have to invest more to strengthening our network. More on the hosting area, like in Jabutabek, and also some more major suburb, because this demand will continue to increase, right, in those areas.

So when we talk about the omnibus flow, actually we are referring to the possibility of doing network sharing with 5G. So this network sharing will bring efficiency for the network investment. And on top of that, also 5G, we know that this is much more efficient technology compared to 4G. With 5G, it will allow us to have much more frequency to be used. So by doing that, then the capacity will be much higher compared to our current technology, which are 3G and 4G.

Got it. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Okay, we just before we go back to the Q&A queue, we'll just take a question from the chat. So this question comes from Raymond Kosasi of Nomura Verdana. So his first question is, any update on the link net deal? The second question is, can you give some color on why ARPU in the postpaid segment is down on a queue on queue basis? And the third question is, can you give some color on approximate revenue split between Java and outside Java?

So, Raymond, this is Abhijit. Let me take the first question on the LinkedIn deal. So as you are aware, our strategy is that of conversions and we see the acquisition of LinkedIn as another major stepping stone towards prosecuting the strategy. As you all will be familiar with, towards the end of July 21, we announced the signing of a non-binding term sheet to acquire a 66.03% stake in LinkedIn. Currently, we are in the process of solidifying the next steps in this transaction. For example, due diligence for the negotiations with the sellers as well as applying for regulatory clearances. We are hoping to complete this and move towards the signing of the SPA very soon. So this will be completed in the near future. Question two, I will hand it over to David. Yeah.

So regarding the ARPU, the ARPU decrease, so quarter of quarter, right? We all know that the postpaid customer has a higher lifetime value because the churn in postpaid is usually lower, but not only because of that, but also because the ARPU consistency is much higher than in prepaid. So there is not such an ARPU variability. In that sense, what we are trying to do is to attract a higher amount of people, additional segments to our postpaid segment. What have we done in order to do that? We have increased our product portfolio. So it's true that the average ARPU has decreased a little bit, but this is because we have increased our customer base And all in all, as you can imagine, I mean, the impact has been positive, right? Because we have additional people, the customer base is bigger. And again, because we know that the churn in those segments and the revenue stability or the ARPO stability in that segment is higher. So that has been a strategy to follow in order to increase that customer base. Now, I will also take the third question. I think I can share this number. So currently, our ex-Java revenue, it's almost one third of the total revenue.

OK. Thank you, Raymond, for the question. We'll go to the next question on the chat. So that's from from Mandiri Securitas. So basically, There is a couple of questions there. The first question is, can we please get some update on Excel's fixed broadband growth in third quarter 21? Latest homes passed, latest subs, latest ARPU, plus total capex spent on fixed broadband business year to date. That's question number one. Question number two, what drove the 39% year-on-year increase in sales and marketing expenses in the first nine months of 2021? Sales and marketing expenses now form 10% of revenue. Should we expect this kind of sales and marketing spending going forward at Excel? The third question, possible to share FY 2022 guidance now, especially on CapEx for FY 2022? Where could upside surprise come from? Spectrum, auction, fixed broadband, expansion, et cetera.

So allow me to take the first question. on our fixed business. So in 2021, our fixed broadband business has continued to do well. This is, of course, as all of us know, is driven by the strong demand for home internet, given the COVID situation. We have reached around 680,000 homes passed, and this is through a combination of deploying our own footprint, as well as partnering with others. On our own footprint, we have shown pretty strong growth. We have achieved a good penetration rate of around 30%. And bulk of the demand is coming from xJava, as we have been very selective in where we deploy the network. In terms of R2, we are seeing a healthy kind of growth, around 260,000 IDR. And recently, having launched Excel Satu, What we are seeing is a strong take-up over there as well. It's early days, but the signs are very encouraging, both in terms of take-up as well as R&D. The last part of the question is total capex spent on fixed broadband. This lies within our capex guidance for the year 2021 of 8.5 trillion.

But I guess for just to add on that, on the 2022 guidance, as you know, we're still working on our business plan. We expect to close all this closer to year end, somewhere in December. We're still finalizing what are we going to do in 2022. We have roughly but at this moment, it's kind of difficult for us to say because we

Gorka Puente, Okay, so regarding the marketing and says a spend right so it's true it's true that they know it hasn't been said. Gorka Puente, A couple of reasons for that, the first one is in our communication, so we are increasing our spend. in A&P, advertising and promotion, in order to increase the awareness in the digital channels. So this is something that we are trying to do quite strongly. So that's number one. Number two, it's regarding the commissions. And that also is because of a couple of reasons. Number one is we are expanding our footprint. We are expanding the distribution footprint in the channels. So that's number one. And number two, we are digitalizing that footprint. So this expansion and this digitalization will continue as far as we need to capture additional market share, especially in the current context. So as far as we continue to spend here in order to achieve market share, we can expect that in quarter four we'll be aligned towards those numbers as well.

Okay, I think what we'll do is we'll go to the Q&A queue live on the attendees. So the next question comes from the line of Arthur Pineda from Citi. Arthur, we are unmuting you, please ask your question.

Hi, can you hear me? We can hear you, go ahead. Thank you. Yeah, for the two questions. Firstly, can I just ask about the price increases that you've mentioned in October? Can you elaborate how you've done this? How it's changed in terms of our post and how your competitors may have reacted? That's the first question. And the second question I had is with regard to network sharing. You've mentioned that you're looking at this on the 5G front. Has Excel started any discussions with the other operators on this? Thank you.

Thank you. So I will take the first question regarding the price increases. So we have done quite a significant effort increasing prices this quarter. Sorry, this quarter, but especially starting the 3rd of October and every week we have taken different stances. It touches most of the channels, so we have been changing it in our own channels, but especially in the traditional channels. Now, how we have done that? Two different ways. So one way is literally some of the prices have gone up, so that's very simple to explain. The other way that we have been doing that is reducing the benefits that we are giving. So for the same price, we give less gigabytes, than what we were giving before. So the changes have been quite significant, to be honest. Now, how competition have reacted, we still don't see much of a reaction. There are, as you can imagine, we always see two types of competition. One is like the more direct, let's say, the ones that are converging. And we have seen some aggressivity in the market in that sense with some... big promotions of double pot, etc. But I believe, we believe that the most important is what the market leader is going to do since they are the true price setters. So we hope, we truly hope that the market leader and the incumbent takes the same direction and starts moving their benefits and their prices in the same direction that we are doing.

Okay, I will take the second question on network sharing. We believe that network sharing is something that we have to leverage for our efficiency. So the answer is yes, we have started discussion about this network sharing ideas with other operators. But at this moment, I'm not able to disclose which one of the other operators that we are talking to.

And this is only for 5G, is that correct?

Yes, the one that is specifically mentioned in the law or in the regulation is 5G. On the 4G, it still actually depends on the interpretation because what was said is just network sharing can be applied in the new technology. So, you know, the border on the definition of the new technology is something that is still being discussed.

Understood. Thank you very much.

Okay. We'll take the next question that's coming from Fung from CIMB. Fung, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead.

Okay. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for this conference call. Two questions from me. Firstly, a question on the cost. I see that your rental cost was up a bit, quite a fair bit, queue on queue into the third quarter when, you know, I would have expected it to be either flat to maybe slightly down because of the renewals of the tower leases. So can you provide a bit more colours to what drove that course up this quarter? Was there any one-offs? Also on staff costs, it came off quite a fair bit into the third quarter. Any one-offs there as well? And then my second question, can you provide us with a bit more color on the revenue trends for mobile between XJava and Java for this quarter? Are we seeing growth in both regions? And in terms of the other telcos network improvements, and how it's narrowing the quality of service to Excel's, Is that having any impact on, you know, Excel's traction for subscribers and revenue growth in either one of these regions? Those are my two questions. Thank you.

Let me take the questions on the cost, Pong. Related to network cost, actually, if you look at the overall infrastructure expenses that we have, for the same period, nine months, Our spending between the two periods, the first nine periods, is about the same, despite what we've been doing in the last nine months, where we continue rolling out the network. As you indicated, this year we're going to spend more than previous years in terms of capex. uh, entail into, uh, network rollout that we're doing. So, like, rental, number of rental, price per rental per site coming down. But we're also doing some expansion and increasing of network capacity. So, uh, that's in terms of network. On the labor, uh, it's coming down, as you, uh, notice. Uh, you're right, there's a one-time off. Uh, we are adopting this, uh, the new government regulation on the pension package, then there's a kind of like an adjustment coming in terms of reserve from the auditor to adopt this regulation, just for labor. So it's one time off. And in terms of Jaffa X Jaffa revenue growth, probably David, you want to talk about that?

Yeah, so we're happy to say that the growth in both Java and Xjava, it's been positive growth for the imposter. So as you can imagine in Xjava, it's a higher growth, but both are positive in this sense. And I think that was the first part of the question. There was a second part regarding the other operators network improvements and the impact on us, right? So on that sense, We believe that this year our network has been improving good and we see that we have good traction and we are capturing market subscribers. So I think that we can see, of course, I mean, as you can imagine, if we had no competitors, we could grow more. Yes, I mean, it's always a yes. But again, we believe that this year our network has been moving in the correct direction and that is reflected in the subscribers growth and momentum that we are seeing.

Okay, thank you. If I can just seek for some clarification, Pak Budi, how much was the one-off staff adjustment in the quarter?

It's somewhere around $50 billion.

Okay, understood. Okay, thank you so much, Pak Budi and David.

So you don't expect that again? I think that's how we... Okay, one-off, yeah?

One-off, yeah. Okay, thank you so much.

Thank you for okay we'll take the next question from the line of Ranjan Sharma from JP Morgan. Ranjan your line is unmuted please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon and thank you for the presentation. The two questions from my side. Firstly, on the capex, the increase to 8.5 trillion should be expected as a new run rate based on the company's business objectives. And the second one is on your ROICs, right? So if I look at what Axiata has been saying is that they want to increase ROICs to above WAC by 2023, 2024, but Excel is still sitting much lower than the WAC for Excel. What is the plan to improve ROICs? I mean, there's been a lot of discussion on data yields compressing while your CapEx has gone up. So even though you're seeing an improvement in revenues, you're still not seeing an improvement in returns on capital. So any thoughts on that would be helpful. Thank you.

Fhazhil Wamalwaite- yeah I think, let me take the questions on the capex yeah we're looking at 8.5 billion as a guidance for capex for this year, although the number could be swing a bit up or down, but we continue monitoring as we executing in terms of that capex. In terms of this, whether this is going to be a new guideline for the following years, as I indicated earlier, that one we couldn't say anything yet because we're still looking at the whole infrastructure that we have, the competition, what would happen in that much, all those. We're looking at those factors before we call out what are we going to do for next year. Yeah, and also related to spectrum, right? As you know that this must go, there's a spectrum play as well there. The government also plan to do some spectrum auction. So all those will be clocked together before we decide how much capex we're going to roll out for next year. That's for the capex. Whereas for ROIC, you're right that right now we're still not there in terms of the level that the AXIATA guideline is, but we are heading toward that direction. You need to also consider that ROIC, when we calculate, is subject to a comparison to WEC and the country level, et cetera, will impact in this. Besides what David said that we are trying to monetize our data in terms of pricing to fill in improving our margin. But in the same time, the cost structure that you have been monitoring on Excel with our OE principle, operational excellence principle, we continue with that. Although we have all capacity we could do in terms of investment, as you know, our balance sheet is really, really healthy. But yet we still not easily put the money here and there because we're really looking at proper payback and proper return before we do anything. So that would be the way we executing to ensure that we hitting the ROIC expected by medical.

So if I can just have a quick follow-up, right? So you're mentioning on a healthy payback period, but I mean, the return on capital has been below the cost of capital for years now. And now you're getting into a stage of fixed broadband investments while your return on capital for the wireless business is still very subdued. So is it fair to assume like this ROIC will not exceed cost of capital for the next five years or more based on the investment cycle?

Yeah, I guess you cannot really see that from that single angle only. When we go with payback, it's more on the project investment base. For example, like XJava. We've been doing XJava since 2017. When we first launched that project, that investment, we kind of like giving the indication that the payback should be somewhere around three years. And then we track those investments. And it's really proven that now XJava become our growth engine and where the Java struggling because of this pandemic, but XJava been helping us definitely give you that number as well. So that's how we look at the payback. So you can already see payback from the overall company perspective, right? Because this is an infrastructure industry where you can only simply look at a payback. There's some value in it.

Yeah, just a quick comment on me, Ranjan, on the fixed point in your question, right? So that's why our expansion strategy in fixed is through the Louis transaction, right? which is an established player with good cash flows. So the return profile is a bit different.

Okay, thank you.

Okay, thank you Ranjan for your questions. We have a couple of questions lined up in the Q&A queue. So I'll just go to the first one there from Donny. So there's two questions here. The first, being in a mostly prepaid market, do you see service convergence as one of the strategies to create stickiness? If yes, how should we expect your company to implement this strategy and its impact to CapEx allocation next year? The second question, does Excel still expect to do asset to cash recycle next year? I think what he means is asset sales here. So either tower or fiber assets, those are the two questions.

OK, so Donny, this is Abhijit. Let me tackle the first question. The short answer is yes. We do see as conversions as a central plank of our strategy to create stickiness. Obviously, the benefits are to both increasing the penetration in our footprint, getting more acquisition. But as you correctly pointed out in your question, one of the biggest benefits we foresee is reduced churn or increasing stickiness. So short answer is yes. In terms of how do we implement this strategy, it is two-pronged, right? So as we started the home business, we initially went into the market with a pure play broadband fiber play with some content bolted on top. In the past two, three months, we have launched our Excel Satu product. which is a first conversion product in the market, a combination of mobile plans as well as fixed broadband and content. And in order to scale it up, I have mentioned the LinkedIn transaction that we are doing. So now that we are seeing that we have got traction, both in terms of our fixed broadband and also in terms of our conversion product, the path to scale is through acquisition and LinkedIn offers us the platform. In terms of CapEx allocation, I will again reiterate what Budhi said, right? So at this point in time, we are not really sure because we cannot commit to a figure because there are a number of factors in play. The acquisition itself, then the spectrum option next year. We see how our network develops, so on and so forth. So at this point, we can't comment. The second question I said to Cash Recycle, I will pass on to Budhi for that.

Yeah. As you know, Excel is quite opportunistic, I would say, in terms of if there's an opportunity, we go for it. But for now, within the horizon, we really cannot comment what we do next year in terms of funding. But as you know, our balance sheet, again, I'm just trying to remind everyone, our balance sheet is very healthy. Any investment or big movement we want to do is there. We can just replace our balance sheet. So this is another perspective you may want to consider. But for now, either tower or fiber asset, if there is an opportunity, we will do. If we see there's a better way to do, then we go ahead with the other options.

Okay. The next question comes from Liliana from AIA on the Q&A queue. So her question is, Are there more sites in xJava being made available by MitraTel in the past few months? And would the availability of sites from MitraTel significantly help Excel's efforts to widen network in xJava?

Yeah, let me take that one. So all this activity, on top of this, we got all the data needed, the detail on where or whether we go for it or not. all being monitored closely. Again, for us, if there's an opportunity to do just, instead of build-to-shoot, we call it build-to-shoot, build ourselves, or just hop on on whatever network available, we go for the second one because it's easy and quick available there. So short answer to this, yes, we're looking at this one.

Okay, the next question comes from the line of, sorry, no, it comes from the Q&A queue from Erindra. So he's asking a follow-up question on the higher capex guidance. Is the higher number a one-off for 2021? Hence, will 2022 numbers normalize to 7 to 8 trillion? I think we've answered this already. We're still finalizing our business plan for next year. The second part of the question is, what is the sense of your network quality versus competitors in the Jabodetabek and major city areas? Will the higher CapEx budget put you ahead of your peers?

I go first? Yeah.

Okay, yeah, so regarding the network quality versus our peers, as I was saying before, so I think during this year, we have given a big I will say, right? So we have seen a good improvement in our network quality in many areas. And most importantly, we are still in that track. So we are still seeing it, that it's improving in a faster way than some of our peers, at least in the last couple of quarters. And we expect to do so also in the next following quarters.

Okay, thank you, David. I can see we still have a few who have their hands raised. So maybe we'll go back to the Q&A queue. So Hiep Nguyen, your line is unmuted. Please ask your question.

Hi, thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two questions, if I may. First one is on the competition. So my understanding is that in the recent, since late last year, right, the one who has been aggressor, you know, has been Telcom. So I just wonder, on that front, how you have been seeing Telcom behaving, like whether, the competition has been easing and continue to ease going into the fourth quarter. So that's the first question. Second is on the data revenue trend. I guess it used to grow at about 20% level also. So can I, given you just raised the price, can you give some guidance on the revenue growth for next year? And then, you know, maybe some, you know, and whether we see improvement in the fourth quarter as well into data revenue growth year on year. Thank you.

Okay, thank you for your question. So I guess that in the first one, yeah, I mean, I think one of the key things here is like the incumbent price level, right? So I believe you all have the quarter two announcement that they did, right? And from there, you can see what is their price levels and their yields. until at least quarter two, right, which are pretty similar, not much higher than the rest of the competitors. Now, during this quarter three and starting quarter four, there have been, to be frank, we have seen some positions up, but then some steps backwards as well, right? So the last movement that we have seen, we have seen that they have been moving also in some low denominations quite aggressively. So we have seen that they have tried to improve prices in certain products, but that they have increased their aggressivity in certain areas and in certain products. Again, we have given this a big step during this quarter on price improvement. So we truly expect that the industry becomes a little bit more rational, a bit more rational and especially the incumbent takes the correct direction, right? Because again, they are like the price center. So that's actually the first part of the question. For the second one, next year, right? Yes, we are increasing prices now. What will happen next year? I think it's still a little bit uncertain because as we are seeing, there are many, many open topics. I mean, I won't enter in the boring of we don't know what's going to happen with the pandemic, et cetera, but that's the reality there. But most importantly, we need to see how the competitors are going to react to the prices, et cetera. And I think that will set up the tone for next year growth. So I think it's a little bit early for me to say or to give an assumption there.

I see. Thank you.

Okay, we have a question on the Q&A queue, which is quite topical. So the first question, this is from Michael Sejuadi from RHB. The first question is, any changes in your business strategy outlook post the government approving Indosat-Hutch merger with only 2x5 MHz being returned? And the second question is, any plan to expand into the data center business? Okay.

I think the first one. So I think we have a very clear business strategy and vision, right? Our vision is to become the number one converged operator and we are going to base that differentiation on customer experience. So we are going to do a couple of things. And when we talk about convergence, it's not only about the fixed mobile part, which is part of our strategy, but also around adding digital services to our value proposition. So this is about different connectivities like fixed mobile and adding digital services to our value proposition. So we see ourselves in the future not only as a connectivity provider, that will be secondary, we see ourselves like a digital services provider. Now, how are we going to differentiate ourselves? Via customer experience. So we can expect to see much more in the digital space, in the simplicity, etc. That's the direction that we have taken. In order to do that, of course, there is a network part that we will keep investing and improving, like we have been doing in 2021, especially in the last couple of quarters. Is this going to change because of the approval of the... of the merger or because of the spectrum that they are going to return. No, it's not going to change. I think the vision is a little bit broader than that. So we expect to continue with our mission independent on this specific topic that you're mentioning.

So the second question is, any plan to expand into data center business? Hi, Michael, this is Abhijit. We actually are in the data center business. So as you may be aware, we hyped off our data centers a couple of years ago, and we have a joint venture in place with PDG, where we have an equity stake. And as part of that, PDG will be developing and following the strategy to expand into this business.

Okay, I think we have a couple who have their hands raised. The first is Alex Goh from MBank. Alex, please go ahead.

Thank you very much. I have two questions and it's regarding LinkNet. I know it's still preliminary, you're looking at acquiring LinkNet, but I have two questions centered around it. It's regarding, could you give a bit of guidance in terms of what kind of savings you can get out of such an acquisition. I mean, do I just add the CAPEX of LinkNet to XL Asiata or is there some potential savings that you can get out of it? I'll be looking at maybe 20-30% savings from that in terms of CAPEX as well as OPEX. And also, are you planning to maintain the listing of LinkNet if this transaction were to go through. That is my first question. The second question is regarding your potential. Would you need to raise capital for this given the fact that LinkNet is about one-third the market cap of Excel, Axiata. Would you need to do a rights or are you looking at placement instead?

Hi Alex, this is Abhijit. I'll tackle all your questions. So the first part of your first question is related to synergies and it is a bit premature for us to comment on that. So as I explained when we started the call, still in the process of conducting discussions with the seller, so on and so forth, exactly to a certain answers to the kind of question you posed. The second part of your question, sorry, can you repeat what was the second part of your question? No, that was the second question. He had a second part to his question. Keep listening. So we have to follow the regulatory guidelines to this since it is a listed company. So we'll be following all the regulatory steps outlined by OJICA and the other regulators. One of the steps is we will have to do a mandatory tender offer. So depending on the outcome of that, we will sequence the next steps. And the second question was funding. In terms of funding, you're right, it's a big acquisition. And for us, all options are on the table, be it debt or rights issue. So we haven't taken any option off the table so far.

Yeah, just to add, we are currently evaluating all options available, Alex. be it from equity, we can go with debt, and debt could be local, could be international, could be bonds, could be loans, could be parents, all options, permutation of those possibilities, we are preparing.

Okay, thank you very much.

Okay, the next question, Piyush Chaudhry from HSBC, you have your hand raised, your line is unmuted, please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the call and the presentation. Two questions. Firstly, I know this was asked on the sales and marketing spend, which has increased, and you have given a few reasons about that. But if I look at the levels that has last seen in SIM registration period in early 2018, it has gone to the similar levels now. So can you talk about the outlook for this spend? Like, are there any one-off? What are the structural reasons? Would it remain structurally high now, the sales and marketing spend? Secondly, if you can talk about your converged product launch, like what is the pricing and the go-to-market strategy? Because it will have mid-term implications if you successfully acquire LinkNet and expand your HomePass kind of footprint. Thank you.

So let me take the first one. Yeah, so as you mentioned, the market financial expenses, yes, it's correct. So they have gone to the levels of the pre-registration time, right? Again, we believe that now we are in quite an important moment for Excel Axiata, right? Moving forward because of the market consolidation and because of the opportunities that we are going to have in front of us and the new strategy or the transformation program that we have. In that sense, for us, again, increasing our footprint and digitalizing our footprint is critical. We need to keep investing in the channel as long as we need to increase our market share. So I think that's the... That's the main idea. Now, are there some one-offs in digitalization, et cetera? Of course. I mean, there are certain things that are one-offs. There are other things that are more commission-based, et cetera. But I think, and I cannot talk for the longer term, but for quarter four, for sure, we expect to try to keep increasing that footprint and increasing our subscriber market share. So I think that's what I can share about all this.

Hi, Piyush. This is Abhijit. So let me tackle your second question. We have just launched an Excel Satu Fiber, and we will soon be launching Excel Satu Lite as well on our FWA. We have priced it competitively, and we have different bundles, value, smart, and family, typically with varying quotas on the mobile side and varying speeds on the fixed side as well, from 30, 50 to 100 Mbps. And the customers will have an ability of using the mobile bucket within their family members, typically. In the past two, three months since we have launched, as I was mentioning before, we have seen good traction in the market. Obviously, there's an element of education in Indonesia, given that conversions is a new concept. But so far, we are seeing very encouraging signs in terms of pickup in our footprint, as well as we are potentially seeing some upside to the R2 as well. Was there any other, did I miss out your question, Piyush? Was there any other point you wanted to know?

No, no, you have covered. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot and all the best.

Okay, I think we have time for one last question from the Q&A queue. So this question comes from the line of Nico Margaronis from BRI Denarexa, who basically has two questions. The first is, what has driven the change in the CapEx guidance from $7 trillion to $8.5 trillion? Can you provide what market development has driven this adjustment? And the second question, how much percent of 3Q21 data price increases has affected in 3Q21? How much of the data price increases has affected 3Q21 number? And has school subsidies had any effect on data years in 3Q21?

Okay, let me take the first question, Nico. So the adjustment was based in several factors, but the major one is the changes of people behavior. So with the pandemic, with the protocol social distancing, now many people actually reduce their mobility and they stay home more. So then it creates a higher needs in terms of the signal penetration to their homes, to their houses. And we also see the movement of the traffic from the business district areas to the more housing areas, and we also see some movement from the big cities into the secondary cities. So these changes actually push us to change our network design and also to strengthening our coverage, especially our indoor coverage in those new areas.

Okay. So regarding the data changes or the price increases in quarter three or quarter four. So some of the biggest changes that we have done in the price changes, like for example, we have rationalized all our unlimited proposition that now it doesn't come by default, it's only redemption based. we have, as I was saying, increased prices and reduced a lot of benefits. Most of those have happened in October. Does that mean that we didn't do anything in quarter three? No, we did certain things in order to improve the prices, but the big changes started, I would say, the third of October. So I think most of that impact should be seen in quarter four. Now, the second question regarding the school subsidies and the yield. Well, as you know, the school subsidy, it's a low yield product. So the prices are regulated. So it's not a high yield. But nevertheless, in the end, what we try to focus on is there are two of those customers. And we are happy to say that in this second batches or the September batch, we have been able via our CVM or the customer value management to control much better and optimize the ARPUs of our customers. Again, independent a little bit of the yield of those products that, yes, they are low, but they can regulate it.

Okay, as it is 3pm Jakarta time, that would be our last question for the day. So we're going to end the call at this juncture. Thank you everyone for joining us today. It was a very interactive session and we'll speak to you guys next year. Stay safe, stay healthy and we'll speak soon. Thank you.