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Rubis Adr

Q42024

3/13/2024

speaker
Jacques Rioux
Managing Partner

Good evening, everyone. We'd like to thank you for joining us here this evening for this presentation of Ruby's Business in 2024. There are four people here. My name is Jacques Rioux. I'm here as the managing partner of the group. We also have Clarisse Gobard-Viznik. And to my left, we have Jean-Christophe Bergeron, who is the director general of our most important subsidiary, Ruby Energy. and Marc Jacot, RCFO. I'd like to point out that Jean-Christian and Marc will be joining the management board of the group during the year, of course, if the AGM meeting in June follows us on that motion. I'd like to start by giving you a quick overview and a reminder of what Ruby is as a group. We have presence across three continents, 50 or so countries now. And it's worth remembering that we have strong presence in all of the countries where we operate with the exception of course of the countries that we've just added into our scope. It's also noteworthy that we have quite an agile and a very decentralized organization. Our intent is to work as closely as possible with the end clients, our own end clients. By doing this, we're able to provide them with the energy that they need that meets their needs as closely as possible through our legacy products that we've been distributing. So LGP, Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr To fulfil our mission and to be able to provide our customers with a product that is competitively priced and safe, we have invested a lot in integration of the value chain. This means that we have very solid logistics. Adr Adr You can see that we have a fleet of 16 ships, 10 of which are self-owned. These fully match our logistical needs. We have a lot of power because the ships are amongst the largest bitumen delivery ships, and we also have a whole range of other sizes for agility. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr which is developing really strongly and others now of course Africa has a lot of potential for expansion we also work in the distribution of fuel and LPG Adr Adr Adr Adr in the Caribbean. We are still amongst the top three in all of our countries. We've got more than 400 service stations. The Caribbean accounts for more than 50% of groups overall EBITDA. So a major region for us. We're also very good at LPG over there and strong in the countries where we work at distributing a range of fuels. The Caribbean region is very interesting for us because it is highly connected to the American economy through tourism and travel and also a range of financial services. I would like to add that for South America we have presence in three countries. or French departments, Suriname, French Guyana and Guyana. These are regions where the population is booming and development in Guyana and Suriname is very strong industrially. There have been some big oil discoveries off their shores and that has further contributed to a quick influx of money and business into those regions. In Europe, our traditional business is LPG distribution. This is a business that we provide mainly to non-urban and rural regions. It's very resilient. It's not easy to replace and it's very good from a cash flow perspective for us. It's a very good business. Adr Adr as it stands we are one of the major solar panel electricity operators in France and thanks to that French platform we've been able to start to invest in Italy and some other countries I'm sure that Clarisse will be able to give you more details on that just to give you a quick number we have more than a gigawatt of Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr I'd just like to give you a kind of overview and some of the highlights of the past financial year with three or four items of note. First of all and probably the most important thing is that the volumes are there and in fact the volumes are up. We've seen an increase in distribution volumes of plus five percent which is excellent and does match performance over the last five years. I would say that this is part of a wider trend that's well recognized at this point. For Photosol, which is our solar panel business, the volume has increased by 22%, so very significant there. Overall, profitability of our business has been good, with 342 million net income. That is up 3% or 4%, depending on if you look at like-for-like or the final year books. we are slightly down versus 2023 but as a reminder that was a peak for us so we're somewhere between our peak in 2023 and the previous all-time high which is 2022 which is still very good all of this is Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr and to wrap up on these highlights we're going to be recommending to the AGM a 2.03 euro per share dividend up 2.5% versus the previous year I think we're at 29 years on the trot that we've been able to increase the dividend every year Adr Adr I'd now like to give the floor to Clarice for the next part of the presentation. Thank you very much, Jacques, and good afternoon, everyone. As part of the presentation that you just heard, I'd like to follow up with some of the key figures for operational performance. As Jacques just reminded you, the sector of energy distribution has shown itself to be remarkably resilient with a growth in volumes of 5% across all of our regions. Group EBITDA is down 3% like for like versus 2023. That is within market guidance and comes in between our two previous record years that were 2022 and 2023. Therefore, I believe it's fair to say that our financials are solid despite a political, environmental, and political situation Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr regarding capex, which is an important item to remember in our future business. It's up for electricity produced by solar panels in line with the expected and past growth as we announced during the photosol day. Distribution is down, but 2023 include the purchase of two Caribbean LPG ships. Adr Adr Adr Adr This year this comes from precise inventory management and good WCR management in an environment where oil prices have been more favourable near the end of the year. Let's get into more detail of the various business lines starting with energy distribution. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Thanks to the American economy doing well and thanks to the impressive growth posted by Guyana, which continues to significantly contribute to the profit there. The dynamic in 2024 appears to be continuing into 2025. However, we are expecting a slowdown in the increase going forward. In Europe, GPL is still doing well. with volumes that are still at plus 6%. Things are also holding firm in our other geographical regions. In Europe, demand for LPG is up thanks to good demand in France and Spain and good bulk sales in France, in Portugal, in Spain and Morocco. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr And that ate into our margins in the network due to the increase in interest rates. However, we are expecting those to be valued upwards in 2025. Nigeria is coming in a little bit under expectations for bitumen. However, volumes have been up across all of the other African countries, especially in South Africa, in Cameroon and Guinea. for our solar panels development is continuing as expected and as announced during the photo sold date the secured portfolio is now more than one gigawatt up 22 in 2024 and the project pipeline is now at 5.4 gigawatts with 26 growth business volume is up a lot with applications for a further 650 megawatts of new permits, 250 megawatts of which obtained this year. That's twice as much as 2022. I'd like to remind you that the success rate in the first instance for receiving permission is more than 80%. 10 installations are currently under construction. Cray is one of them. It will be the second largest solar panel farm in France. the first megawatts came into service in February 2025 with the rest that will be gradually brought into service across 2025 and 26. We are also going to be kicking off development of the first megawatts in Italy. Now we have been able to receive guaranteed pricing thanks to the first agrivoltaic agreement in Italy. This is a tender which provides standardised pricing. Development in France has continued with 900 megawatts of early stage projects in Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe and 350 megawatts of projects have also been added to the pipeline. The Powit EBITDA, so for Photosol, is where we announced it would be during the Photosol day in September, 36 million euros. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr As you know, management and the supervisory board have done in-depth work to strengthen group governance across the year. At the end of 2024, the changes brought to the bylaws strengthened the assignments for the supervisory board, especially with the inclusion of three key points. An early opinion on major strategic transactions. Secondly, formalization of annual updates on strategy and budget for the group and annual updates on the succession plan for members of the management board for major subsidiaries and Ruby SCA. Finally, the supervisory board now receives updates on sustainability now that the CSRD has been implemented. Furthermore, Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr who would be leaving the Management Committee at the end of the AGM in 2027 on the books for 2026. Therefore, at the next AGM in June 2025, we will be seeking a majority to appoint Jean-Christophe Bergeron, the current Director General of Ruby Energy, and Marc Jacob, the current Group CFO, who's also here with me. This succession, recommended by the Management Committee, is fully in line with the needs of our business and sector and also the requirements of a group such as Ruby. It brings together experience and skills in energy in the broadest sense of the word and in finance and financial professions. Jean-Christophe Bergeron and Marc Jekyll both have a wealth of experience over 30, more than 30 and 20 years respectively. They've been able to build up their own legacy outside of the group in major international groups and publicly traded groups. Thank you very much for listening, and I'm sure we'll be able to come back to this in a minute. I'd like now to give the floor to Marc.

speaker
Marc Jacot
Group CFO

Merci, Clarisse. Thank you, Clarisse. So before... going into the details of the financials it's important to understand what comprises them and to compare things the EBITDA bridge shown on the slide is in the same spirit of that which we shared with you in the first half refers to items that you're familiar with on the We restate 2023 of the over-billings done to clients in order to offset some of the forex losses in Nigeria. An adjustment of the price formula in Madagascar concerned early 2022 had a positive impact. That's £43 million. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Let's now look in greater detail of our various activities. The EBIT front here on the like for like, 564 million in 2023 to 509 million in 2024. Here it's quite striking. Africa suffered from difficult conditions, particularly Kenya. I won't go Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Caribbean continue to be the leading contributor to the group's performance, an excess of 50%. Excellent activity. Jamaica, Barbados, Guyana, Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr We're managing to maintain a relatively stable level and good activity in Caribbean and more trading over shorter distances as renewable energy production, 49 million revenue, stable versus 2023 in spite of increase in operating assets. But Clarice explained all those developments to you on the... expenditure front. The costs, of course, are increasing, which is good news because they're increasing in line with our assets under operation, of course, but also with development costs that are increasing to drive growth. And our future expansion plan, there's this hockey stick curve, and that'll be the case still in 2021. So this business model, well diversified, maintaining a solid performance in spite of slight difficulties in the two regions mentioned. A word on the P&L. I mentioned EBIT, net income from associates, only Q1 of Ruby Terminal. 2023, there was full year. You see the capital gains of the sale, the disposal of Ruby Terminal, 89 million. Net financial charges costs up 13 million. That's linked here. Adr Adr Adr of our swap hedges and, of course, the interest expense linked with Fotosol increases in line with the debt, which is consistent with our assets under our exchange rate losses, 37%, 32% in Q1, down Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr for taxes, the impact of pillar 2, the global minimum tax of the OECD which has an impact on our financial 23 million. We mentioned a range of between 20 and 25. That's our new standard, our new norm. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr which is non-cash. So, on a comparable basis, when we restate for the EBITDA items I mentioned that we remove the capital gain of Rubis Terminal, the impact of Pillar 2 of the minimum tax, well, its net income on a comparable basis that is down 4% versus 2023 that was excellent level total net debt stands at 1.3 billion euros at the end of 2024 and the corporate debt reaches 861 very good leverage of 1.4 times and total leverage including all financial debt is at 1.9 times let me remind you that we issued a USVP to extend the average maturity of the debt to 4.5 years, which gives us access to a new liquidity facility that's always welcome. Variation of net debt, well, obviously, that's due to very favourable Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr and working capital requirement that's positive at 39 million, which is the result of the decrease in the price of our products. So that leads to a positive impact on WCR. CAPEX, total 248 million, as Clarice mentioned. Ruby Energy... Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr following that sale. And we have the usual dividend that we paid in June. And then non-recourse debt is up 65 million in line with FedEx. So at the end, we have a very healthy balance sheet, very comfortable cash to address 2025. Thanks, Mark. What I wanted to share with you is really our vision, the vision that we've co-constructed with our teams, managers across the geographies in which we operate for the next three to five years of various geographies, businesses, starting with Africa. As you can see, Africa is a growth territory for Ruby Energy, be it for LPG fuel or bitumen. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr from high carbon intensity heavy fuel or diesel to LPG facilities so we have an important opportunity where Ruby will position itself fuel primarily present in East Africa strong growth in demographics Africa will see its population go from 1.5 billion to people to over 2 billion by 2050 so of course that's going to require major energy needs and Ruby will be there to support those needs and mobility will expand growing populations increasing middle-class share of the population we're going to focus a great deal on on what we're seeing expanding across our geographies in the service station networks, larger ecosystems and just merely selling fuel with ancillary services and activities to attract consumers and create value. Rubismus sees those opportunities for a simple reason. We have small competitors who are Adr Adr events that require infrastructure projects. So we're very confident as to the growth of our bitumen activities in Africa. So in conclusion, Africa growth opportunity for Rubis through Rubis Energy Caribbean, an area where we're well established and We see this continual expansion of tourism and industrial activities supporting tourism growth. Good prospects both for LPG and fuel. Special word for Guyana and Suriname. Guyana is up and running with oil production on the rise. In Suriname it said that the oil production should increase. begin in 2028 with the exploration and production projects. Once again, Caribbean, although the area is more mature than Africa, will offer rubies a number of opportunities. You see the growth rates that are quite sizable that we're anticipating. Lastly, Europe, notably LPG, Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr

speaker
Jacques Rioux
Managing Partner

Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Beyond developing margins and volumes. We also are cautious to continue to develop our healthy management of our business controlling opex controlling capex controlling WCR and As mark has already said at a number of times we're keen to find tools that will enable us to hedge our risks for currencies Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Lowering the carbon emissions of our business, shipping and SARA especially. SARA is our Antilles refinery. Those both account together for 90% of our emissions and we've already started to reduce those. Adr Adr I think you've maybe heard the expression turn data into value and that's at the heart of what we want to do and that means that we are confident in our ability over the next five years to continue to develop at a pace that is at least on par with what we've had over the last five years. Thank you very much and I'd like to now give the floor back to Clarice. Thank you, Jean-Christian. Now, very briefly on this slide, I'd like to kind of summarize in a few words what we have. So once again, solid operational performance, thanks to a diversified business model that is very relevant to today's environment. EBITDA is stable on a like-for-like basis. Adr Adr So what should you expect out of 2025? Well depending on business lines some of the 2024 trends will continue into 2025. In Europe we're expecting a continued moderate growth of LPG but still growth which will continue to generate cash and we're going to continue to develop photosol. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr I'd like to thank you for your attention and we'd like to now answer any questions you may have. Our first question is from Kepler. Given the 2025 outlook, If we're expecting earnings per share to be down versus 2024, and if that is indeed the case, how sustainable is the growth in dividend policy? Well, there are a number of answers I can bring to that question. Adr Adr There's still uncertainty and our experience of the past leads us to be cautious when it comes to Forex, although we have implemented a great number of measures to hedge our position. And also, we don't sell off rubies terminal every year. So that's what I can share at this point on likely changes on earnings per share. As to the sustainability of the dividend policy, it's always been a priority for the group. We've always been very clear on that when we've spoken to the markets. Rubis has the means indeed has the cash on hand to continue to pay out this dividend. And I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that we're not paying out 100% of our profit. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Next question from Jean-Luc Romain, our CIC analyst, who's asking if unitary gross margins have changed in Africa, especially Kenya, at the end of the year, and should we expect a return to normative levels in 2025? Next question. Are there any countries that Rubis could pull out of that are dragging them down? Let me answer on Kenya. Gross margins in the second half didn't improve because there was no valuation adjustment and no margins change, although we hope that that might have happened. It appears that the government has finally now come out and discussed margins that may be adjusted in the coming months. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr so we're pretty confident very confident in fact in eastern Africa and Kenya as to countries that we could cut loose I think somebody's maybe got Haiti in the back of their mind there Haiti is experiencing some pretty big societal and political upheaval right now but Jean-Christophe you might have some ideas on that but I imagine that that's what the question was pointing towards because there's no country really dragging us down in our portfolio. Haiti is going through a very difficult time. This is a country that has 11 million inhabitants. It's a public security crisis and we're all waiting for the international police force that is supporting the Haitian police force comes in and is deployed in a more meaningful way. Adr Adr This is a country where we had very good business until this unfortunate kind of civil war outcome. Jean-Christophe, do you want to follow up? Well, we've already known for a number of years and we have been talking about this in a kind of minimalist way from an investment perspective and a spending perspective. But right now, Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr made a number of decisions the Haiti situation should be seen as in the bottom of the trough right now and what we need to do is make sure we keep market share versus our competitors we've deployed a number of logistic means to achieve that we've got two boats that will be getting into the region at the end of this month and the end of next month that should increase our ability to supply our clients we have a lot of clients that aren't receiving fuel lots of service stations that aren't receiving fuel So we're hoping that 2025 will be a bit better. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Well, first of all, I would like to reassure you that Rubis's corporate structure will not change. The management committee governance is being adjusted, given Gilles Grubin and myself stepping down. But you shouldn't expect a second step coming behind it. The discussions on margins in Kenya, I think Jean-Christophe has kind of already answered that in his previous answer, that the first effects that we've been expecting for a while are likely to come in in two days. So there will be a first upward valuation on the 15th, which is very good news for Kenya. As to solar energy purchase prices, Clarice? Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr So for the time being, we're not expecting any issues and we don't see any particular roadblocks for developing Photosol and our development plan. A word on bitumen now. Indeed, there are still opportunities to develop bitumen in our African regions. We recently entered the South African market with a great outlook for growth there. So that's a kind of first answer. We've also been able to strengthen our position in Angola. Angola is important because we have important development projects on the short and medium term and also potentially, and this is currently being studied, a way into the Democratic Republic of Congo. So yes, there are still opportunities on bitumen and we're working on them. Finally, to answer the lack of guidance on net profit for the year, we're giving you an operating guidance. I've given you some ideas of the net debt situation. You know how much we're being taxed. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr It actually doesn't really help understanding the performance of the group. So that's why we have decided, I've decided to not give a precise guidance. At least I want to commit to a guidance on net profit. There's volatility under EBITDA and that's why we've preferred to provide guidance that we're comfortable in providing for creating value and operational performance. And please understand that we are doing the best we can. Next question from Mohamed Mansour. Given the current low valuation of the shares, why not replace a dividend payout with a share buyback program that would be more optimal for shareholders and would create more value than paying out a dividend? Wow, that's a big topic there. And quite a theoretical kind of abstract debate as well. Share prices are not always predictable, especially when you've got share buybacks. In theory, it can create value sometimes, though. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Now, the difference between managing and non-managing members. Given our corporate structure, we have Gilbert and myself, who have a mandate from the shareholders, and then shareholders, of course, and then the company. So we have control over our assets, The managing members are in charge of managing the group. And they can either have a mandate from the shareholders or not known as commandite or not in French law. So our two new members would receive that commandite status. Adr Adr Adr Adr There were all sorts of steps that we expected so that the transition is done in a predictable and solid way. And this is the next step working with our Limited by Shares members. and this will lead us to longer term evolution within the group I don't know whether there was another question as part of that there was that question on French taxes I think that this extra tax is going to have minimal impact on us in 2025 and there was a final question there the amount available for M&A? That's kind of an interesting question, and probably for our managing members, but I think I can answer part of it. So the question related to potential leverage gearing, you could look at corporate debt, Our banking covenants, as we've discussed, are at about 3.5x EBITDA. We're at 1.4 right now. And our managing directors will probably tell you that they would prefer a lower gearing to maybe 2.5. Yes, I can agree. That is indeed the case. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr because it wouldn't really make sense to paint ourselves into a corner like that but we are keeping our eyes open for the right asset in the right place and this is something that we've been doing well for decades now within the group So there's no risk that we would endanger the financial situation of the group to overreach. But please remain assured that we will be dynamic in looking at new targets. It feels like we're coming out of a period of cheap money with the COVID period and low interest rates and now we're going to maybe start seeing opportunities brought up by groups that are looking to divest from some of their own assets and we're keeping our eyes open we're studying a number of opportunities it's the kind of thing we want to talk about but we can't really at all so let's be honest I'm not saying that there's something that will be announced tomorrow. Do we have another question?

speaker
Marc Jacot
Group CFO

Two questions from Mr. Lombard. So you're indicating midterm gardens for LPG fuel for Africa. Can you... Adr 40% of the business give or take LPG we don't really talk too much in revenue rather more in margin terms LPG 30% of the business bitumen 25% and fuel the remainder 45% Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr growth of ruby energy very solid 5% growth announced this year that's a trend set to continue next I have three questions from Jean Leroy the first concerns PV and he's asking when are you going to get rid of this non-profitable business and secondly changes of governance he's asking as part of Adr Adr all strategic transactions that are important for the group, that's to say all sectors in which we invest. And the supervisory board provides serious, solid support to the extension of our activities on low-carbon energies, notably coal. solar PV so that I think that was the second question when would we sell I think the first when are we going to sell photosol That's not on the cards at present. For Photosol, we entered the market in order to develop, expand the business in industrial terms, leveraging for that projects that are very high growth rates that Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr to see the results rise to the ambitious levels that we've set our sights on. So to consider that since we invested, that is about two and a half years ago, we have increased the secured pipeline at one giga Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr that we have filed 650 megawatts of permits in 2024. There were 600 the previous year. To give you a point of comparison, when we took over the business, there were only 300 megawatts installed. So 600 of... Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr ground based plants up to 500 kilowatts with subsidized prices. That's not at all the photosol market. Adr Adr Adr Adr No, those are the only two questions on Ruby's terminal. Storage. Ruby's terminal was storage for third parties, had nothing to do with the LPG distribution activity. Ruby Energy has holdings in its own storage facilities and has no link whatsoever with the activity of Ruby Terminal. Adr Adr Adr Adr The proceeds of that disposal, we hope, will serve for further M&A, further expansion. So the disposal of Rubis Terminal is part of a more long-term vision. It's a very fine business, without a doubt, but we'll have to adapt constantly to market changes for... Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Of course, I recognize the share price is not satisfactory. It satisfies no one, but the solidity, the strength of the group, the cash flow is there, and the managing partnership offers that perspective. I don't know if we've answered all your questions. Adr Adr Adr Adr Adr Thank you. Have a pleasant evening.

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