Thunderful Group AB

Hi, and welcome to the Fundafull Group's Q4 presentation. My name is Anton Hof, and I'm an equity analyst at Redeye, and I will moderate the Q&A session following the presentation. And just a quick reminder, if you want to ask a question, use the form on the web page below the screen. And with that, I'll leave it over to Martin and Henrik. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Anton. My name is Martin Walfish. I'm the CEO of Thunderful Group. And with me today, I have Henrik Lundqvist, our CFO. The agenda for today is to go through our Q4 key highlights. Then I will give an introduction to Thunderful briefly. Then we move into a bit more financial details that Henrik will cover. I will end with some CEO comments and also summarize the key takeaways before we move into the Q&A with Anton. So if we look at the key highlights for the quarter, if we start the financial highlights, our net revenue came in at 953 million SEK, while our adjusted EBITDA landed at 3 million SEK. Our EBIT is minus 678 million SEK, primarily due to significant write-downs of goodwill and balanced development costs. I and Henrik will explain a bit more about that later in the presentation. Our cash flow from operations amounted to just over 300 million. And our investment spend was 60 million SEK, which was significantly lower than the comparison quarter in 2022, which is when we acquired UK-based game studio Jump Ship. If I add some highlights in our two segments, so if we start with distribution, AmoToys had its best year ever in 2023, especially the soft toys category performed really well during the year, so we're very happy for that. Baresala has continued to show solid margins despite somewhat decreased revenue. This is primarily due to Nintendo Switch sales decreasing somewhat during the year. Nintendo Switch is moving into its eighth year as a console in the market, so it's definitely starting to show its age. As for Nordic Game Supply, it has unfortunately underperformed significantly. We shut down the German business during the year, and parts of the product portfolio, private label, was divested at a discount in the quarter. So it's clear that NGS cannot continue performing like this, and we're reviewing the business to see how we can best capture the existing value. Moving on to the game side, I first want to mention that we've announced a major restructuring program on January 17. We are basically consolidating the company and decreasing costs and investments in the short term, and the goal is obviously to improve our competitive position in the long term. In total, we are reducing around 20% of our work staff, plus canceling some external third-party projects. This will achieve annual savings of about 100 million SEK. On the development side, in the quarter we continue to invest heavily in our own projects, but this is at a level that is not sustainable, given the cash flow we are generating. So the restructuring program obviously aims to address that. And during this year, 2024, we will decrease our investment levels considerably. I also want to mention that we've put development of SteamWorld Headhunter on hold. We've reviewed its progress and it's clear that the project has not delivered as planned and it will not be ready for 2025 as we have previously indicated. A substantial part of the write-downs in Q4 are related to SteamWorld Headhunter. I also however want to say that I think it's a very interesting concept and we aim to revisit Headhunter in the future. Ideally we can recapture some of the work and assets already created. Moving on to the publishing side, we launched two highly anticipated titles in the quarter. SteamWorld Build, which is the first new SteamWorld game since 2019. I think it's a very good game, but sales in December have been somewhat below our expectations. We believe that the genre hasn't really attracted the SteamWorld core audience as much as we hoped. And it's also not a genre that works well on Nintendo Switch, which is where we historically have been quite strong. On the other hand, LEGO Brick Tales VR has sold more than we anticipated. It just shows how important it is to have a portfolio of many titles, then we can balance our commercial expectations across several games in the portfolio. LEGO Brick Tales is, however, a game with lower profit margins, as we share royalties with several other parties, with LEGO, Meta, and, of course, the game developer Clockstone, in this case. Moving on to partners, which is our robot teddy business, we've seen a continued decline. We have not managed to get a new client. And as part of the restructuring program, we've decided to focus on our existing clients. I do, however, believe that the strategy of Robot Teddy is still very interesting. We just need to find a better way of executing in the future. So we'll surely come back to that at some point. Finally, as announced already in November, we are looking to divest our subsidiary HeadUp. We don't need to have two separate publishing operations within Thunderfall, and the smaller indie titles that HeadUp has focused on is not really part of the strategy that I see us having going forward. I hope we can share more details about the divestment later in Q1. Okay, so a brief introduction to Thunderfall. Some numbers at a glance, and all these numbers are as of end of December last year. So we were 519 employees, had 10 internal game development studios that are working on 14 internal games, internally developed games. And our publishing businesses are also working on 14 externally developed games with third party developers. Our total revenue for 2023 came in at just above 2.8 billion SEK. Also, a quick note on some select brands and partners. We're of course very proud and happy for our relationship with Nintendo that's been going on for more than four decades. In our Amo Toys business, we work together with Squish Mallows, which is a very successful brand. SteamWorld is our own game IP, our most important IP on the game side, and Meta is a key partner that we work closely with, with co-development projects. I do want to say that an important note is that as we're implementing the restructuring program, the number of people, studios and projects will decline. We're refocusing on fewer game projects where we can have sustainable investment levels. So you'll see the effect of this in our Q1 2024 report. So Thunderfall has two segments. So the distribution segment, as mentioned already, Arma Toys, distributing and selling toys all across the Nordics. BergSala is our Nintendo business, selling Nintendo products in the Nordics and Baltics. And Nordic Game Supply sells PC and gaming peripherals and accessories all across the Nordics. On the games segment, we have historically talked about four different revenue streams. IP building, that's when we invest into creating games either in our internal game studios or with external third party studios. Co-development is when we work with external partners to develop games together with them. Meta, as I mentioned, is an example of that. Partners is our robot teddy business, and that's where we help indie developers to improve and optimize their business, basically help them become even more profitable. And then, of course, investments is where we invest in share acquisitions and also acquiring various IPs. Going forward, we're also going to talk more about the operating areas in the game segment. So we have the development side, that's where we manage our own internal game studios and of course develop games, both our internal games and also third-party developed games. And of course the publishing side is where we market and sell both internal and third-party games. Finally, I want to mention a few titles that we have planned for this year. So as previously announced, without going into any more details, we have a new SteamWorld game coming out this year. So very much looking forward to that. We have a game called Replace that I think looks very interesting coming out at the end of the year. And we're also launching Planet of Lana on new platforms, on PlayStation and Switch. And as you can see in the middle here, new title soon to be announced. So we have something cooking that we're going to start talking about very soon. So stay tuned for that. All right, that was introduction to Thunderfall and our Q4 highlights. Now Henrik will go into a bit more detail.

Thank you, Martin, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through the financial section of the report. Net revenue decreased by 18% to 953 million, explained by a decline in both distribution and games. I will come back to the performance of the different segments later in this presentation. Looking at the gross margin, it was stable compared to last year as we had strong margins in several of our distribution businesses, which compensated for a weaker margin in NGS. Our adjusted EBITDA amounted to 3 million, which was significantly lower than last year, explained by higher cost base in games related to personnel, but also unusual high royalties in the quarter. And also losses in NGS, which I will come back to later. We should also mention that in the comparison period, there was acquired revenues of 75 million connected to the game release, which had a large impact on the profitability last year. After a review of the acquisition and investments made in recent years, also in relation to the current market situation, our assessment resulted in a write-down of 500 million of the goodwill and 98 million of the capitalized game development cost. The write-downs have no impact on cash flow, but our result was affected by this, and we reported an EBIT of minus 678 million in the fourth quarter. Okay, moving over to the distribution business. Our net revenue decreased by 14% to 832 million. Armo Toys delivered all-time high year and Q4 was also a very strong period with 13% growth. We are very pleased to see both improved sales but also higher margins driven by healthy product mix, especially from Soft Toys. BergSala sales decreased by 26% in the quarter, mainly explained by lower hardware sales as the Switch console is now around 8 years old. The contribution from this business continues to be very good and the adjusted EBITDA for the full year increased by 14% up to 106 million, driven by strong game releases during the year such as Super Mario Bros. Wonder and the new Zelda game. We should also mention that we have 48 million in other operating income for BergSolar, which is a reclassification we have done during this year. Those 48 millions is mainly a marketing contribution which we received from Nintendo. Regarding Nordic game supply, we continue to have difficulties in the market. The close down of the German business and close down of private label business in combination with reducing the high inventory levels with discounted prices has resulted in a very large negative EBITDA in the quarter of minus 54 million. Our adjusted EBITDA for segment distribution amounted to 6 million, which was 51 million lower than last year. This is entirely explained by the weak result of NGS. And as Martin earlier said, we are currently performing a business review of NGS. Okay, let's move over to the game segment. In our game segment, net sales decreased by 39% to 121 million, whereof new releases contributed with 26 million. Last year, we had acquired game revenues of 75 million connected to the acquisition of Jump Ship and the release of the game Summer Will. Adjusted for these, the sales level was in line with previous year. Adjusted EBITDA was 7 million, which was significantly lower than last year. This is explained by higher personnel expenses and also unusual high royalty expenses in the quarter. And as earlier mentioned, we didn't have the one-off effect from Jump Ship. EBIT for the segment game was minus 658 million due to the large write-downs earlier explained of almost 600 million. A brief look at our cash flow. The cash flow from operating activities amounted to 304 million after changes in working capital. A large part of the cash flow came from improved working capital where the largest improvements came from increased accounts payable of 266 million but also lower inventory levels compared to previous periods. Investing activities amounted to 60 million, which was pretty much the same amount as last year. The capitalized game development amounted to 37 million, which was on par with last year, and investments in publishing rights amounted to 21 million, which also was in line with last year. Our financial or financing activities amounts to minus 70 million, mainly due to reduced usage of the credit facility. Cash at the end of the period amounted to 209 million. And then one slide on our available liquidity and net debt. So our available liquidity at the end of December was 320 million compared to 494 million last year. And as you can see in the chart, Q3 is the quarter when purchases are made ahead of the peak season in Q4. In Q4, net debt has reduced from more than 500 million down to around 400 million. And net debt to EBITDA, the ratio between net debt and EBITDA was 1.7 at the end of the year. And by that, I will hand over to Martin again.

Thank you, Henrik. Yes, so I will give some CEO comments, some reflections on where we are. So some general comments on the entire group. I'm happy to say that since December, we have a new executive management team in place, reflecting our core businesses with the heads of development, head of publishing and head of distribution. And the management team also includes myself, of course, CFO Henrik, and our head of operations and head of people and culture. The restructuring program that we announced in January has naturally taken a lot of our attention in the past months. However, as most of the restructuring is soon concluding, we can start to focus our efforts on much needed strategic and operational improvements. And I'm really happy with our progress in the team on how to align on how to steer Thunderful going forward. I also want to say that despite the difficult times, I'm impressed by everyone's engagement within the group. Our teams and people really want to do great work. And to make best use of all that dedication and engagement, we need to define a stronger and more clear strategy to build a better business structure. And apart from a clear direction, there is also a lot of improvement work to be done with processes and steering models. I think I mentioned some of that already back in the Q3 presentation. The group has also historically been managed quite decentralized, and we are changing that with better controls and management support across the businesses. So in short, 2024 is a transition year. We aim to stabilize the group and have a foundational platform to grow from in the future. Some comments on distribution. So we have a number of exciting initiatives that will optimize our internal synergies. So the distribution teams continue to work better together to get more visibility and sharing of internal data. And this is obviously to improve our working capital, our inventory levels and profit margins in the end. Arma Toys, as noted, is performing really well. It's really found a new operating level that we're very happy with. And the goal is obviously to sustain the momentum and continue to grow as much as possible moving forward. And finally, we're obviously very excited about the potential for a new Nintendo console. It's coming out in 2025, it's rumored, so we hope that's true. And having two consoles in the market, it's still a great Switch, it's still a great console. And then a new console at a premium price, we think will be great for our business. Some comments on the games business. So obviously the write downs that we've announced have been necessary to make sure that our balance sheet better reflects our actual assets. Having done that and implementing the restructuring program, we can turn our focus to rethinking our strategy, not least our games portfolio strategy. So in essence, deciding what games and investments should we make in the future, what IPs, apart from SteamWorld, should be our backbone of our portfolio, and improving processes to increase our development and publishing efficiency. Also, I think it's very important that deciding and evaluating what kind of risk profile our development portfolio should have. It will take time to shift the risk balance, but we're planning now how to do that best. And finally, last but not least, I'm very excited about the publishing slate we have for the coming years. We have many great games with great potential. And in short, as part of our strategic refocus, we will do fewer, better and bigger games. Okay, so those were my reflections. I'm going to summarize the key takeaways. So as you've seen, Alma Toys and Beisala continue to deliver really strong results and continue to have great potential for the future. The restructuring program will save about 100 million SEK annually and consolidate the group so that we can aim for future growth when we get to that point. A new strategic focus and process improvements will help improve the game segment significantly in the coming years. So as noted 2024 is really a transition year where we aim to become a more stable and focused company so that we can grow again later on. That was our Q4 presentation. So now we're moving on to the Q&A together with Anton.

Thank you for a great presentation. And let's start with distribution. I mean, buy-sala declined year-over-year, while IMO toys continue to have a good performance. But given that Nintendo is not expected to release the new console until 2025, are you seeing any other events that could support Baysala's sales in this year?

Well, I think the best way to answer is that Nintendo has a tendency to surprise. So we are, of course, hoping for that. And we wouldn't be surprised if there is a surprise that will help Baysala during this year as well.

And on that note, we got the questions regarding Nintendo. So when will you announce an extension with Nintendo?

Yes, so we obviously have a distribution agreement with Nintendo and we're not going to go into the details of when that is extended, but it's obviously in the works and we have no worries about it happening. Everything, every indication is showing that it will be extended as planned.

And moving on to Amatois, as mentioned, you have had a good performance. Can you mention if Squishmallows continue to have a tangible contribution in the quarter and if you have seen any decline in January?

Well, Squishmallows was a substantial part of Q4, so we're very happy for that. And we're not really going to comment on what's happening in Q1. You'll have to wait until the Q1 report.

And how should we think regarding NGS going forward? I mean, are you satisfied with the inventory levels or should we expect more inventory sell-offs in Q1?

Well, NGS as a whole obviously isn't performing. So we are, as mentioned, we're really reviewing that and figuring out the solution. So hopefully we can tell more about that in the next coming months. Hopefully we're already in Q1.

So there is still some inventory left? There is absolutely inventory left, yes. And how do you feel about the inventory level in Bergisalen or Mottoyz? Are you satisfied there?

In Barisala, the inventory levels are a bit high, so we're working on decreasing that. Whereas in Amatois, it's at more or less the level it should be. We can probably decrease it there as well a little bit, but it's primarily Barisala that has higher inventory levels than it should have right now.

And what kind of inventory is that? Well, Nintendo products. And historically you have had strong cash flow in Q1 due to release of receivables. Can we expect a similar pattern in this current Q1 or are there any extraordinary items that we should be aware of? Maybe I can speak to that.

Yes, normally, absolutely. This year we have the restructuring program, so obviously we might have some cancellation costs, we might have some extra costs for our employees, for instance. I wouldn't see this as a normal quarter. We need to complete our restructuring program here, and that will increase some of the costs during this quarter.

And in terms of cash flow and cash position, how do you see cash position going forward for this year and outstanding earnouts payments?

So, obviously, the restructuring programme, together with other initiatives around working capital, etc, addresses the cash flow situation, so to say. So we're working on stabilising that, making sure that we can come back to more positive cash flow patterns for the group, and also then that we can honour some of the agreements we have also related to earners, for instance.

And if we move forward to the gaming segment, maybe if you can provide some more details on the write-downs related to the capitalized game development, for instance, what stage were these games mainly in and how should we think regarding sales impact going forward?

Right, so some of the write-downs were games in development, SteamWorld Headhunter as mentioned, and some of the write-downs were related to games that have already been launched, smaller games that haven't really performed as well as we hoped.

Okay. And how should we think about the royalties in the quarter?

Well, yes, so the royalties, as mentioned, were a bit on the high side. And a part of that is obviously that LEGO Brick Tales VR performed as well as it did. But it's also a licensed game, so it increases the royalties accounted for in the quarter.

And should we expect elevated royalties in the coming quarters too, or was it isolated to Q4?

it's it's more related to q4 we don't expect to have those levels um going forward and yeah i agree obviously this is connected to what kind of sales we make what type of games we sell but as martin says we don't expect this level going forward and given that you have a relatively low margin um

in LEGO Brick Tales, it seems, in the quarter. Do you revise your strategy in terms of investing in licensed games, or how do you think about that?

I think it's really a case-by-case basis. Obviously, lower profit margins is not good, but what we get from a game like LEGO Brick Tales VR is good attention to us as a brand and to Thunderfall as a publisher. So we will absolutely look at license opportunities in the future as well, but we'll evaluate them on a case-by-case basis.

And you launched SteamWorld Build at the beginning of December and the game has performed somewhat weaker than you had expected. Can you give some flavor on which devices the game performed the best?

Well, as I mentioned, it hasn't performed as well as we hoped on the Switch. So the best platforms is PC and PlayStation.

And I mean, you have mentioned that you are intending to launch one new SteamWorld game per year. Yes. Do you think the new SteamWorld games are going to perform better on the Nintendo Switch?

Yes.

That was a weak answer.

If I add some color to that. So obviously for every SteamWorld game we develop, we evaluate what kind of game it should be. And one of the exciting things about SteamWorld as an IP is that we're experimenting and exploring new genres with many of the different games. But that experimentation will find the right balance around that. So we will also do... and continue to develop and publish SteamWorld games that are more in the genres that we have already explored. And thus we can be quite certain that it should have a higher chance of finding our core audience than SteamWorld Build has had.

So let's move to questions from the web. Does the business review in NGS and the possible fallout impact the other distribution companies in terms of warehousing, office parks, distribution agreements with retailers and brands?

Obviously, our distribution business is interconnected on the operations side. So that is part of the evaluation and review we're doing. Okay.

And given your seasonality profile in cash flow, do you think Thunderful will need to make some share capital raise during 2024? Or do you think the cash flow combined with efficiency improvements will cover running costs without a capital raise?

So we are working towards making sure that we can operate with our available cash and financing. But it's of course something we're evaluating continuously going forward.

And how does it go with the divestment of Hera?

Yes, so the divestment of HEDUP is going well. It's been perhaps taking a little bit longer than I initially anticipated, but as it looks right now, we think we're going to land in a good solution, but we'll have to get back to that a bit later in Q1.

And can you give some more flavor about the Robot Teddy?

Yes, so Robot Teddy, as mentioned, the strategy of Robot Teddy is to help indie developers that have, I would say, oftentimes unexpected success, or perhaps expected success, at least they hope for it, but in some ways overwhelmed by their success. And then Robot Teddy can step in and help them optimize and improve their business. And I think it's a great strategy, but with everything going on, we haven't been able to execute it as well as we hoped. So we've decided to sort of pause or at least take it down a level right now, not least with the restructuring going on, and then come back to Robert at the end of strategy later on. So very much believe in the strategy. We need to rethink how we can execute it better.

And what does the new strategy mean in terms of games? I mean, is it fewer indie games and more double-A games?

Yes, so we're not going to go into much detail about the strategy right now. That we'll have to wait for later in the spring. But yes, as we move forward, we'll be developing and publishing fewer smaller indie games and focusing more on sort of double A games in the production scope of perhaps between 2 and 8 million euros per game. That's the way we look at it right now. But we are working on the strategy and we'll announce more details about that when we are ready. Interesting.

And the final one, looking ahead, which game launches are you most excited about for 2024?

Well, of the ones that we've talked about, obviously the new SteamWorld game, no doubt, very excited about that. And then Replaced, as I mentioned, I think it looks absolutely fantastic. So coming out at the end of the year, very much looking forward to that.

Do you have something to add?

No. Actually, not when it comes to these games.

No, just cash flow. Exactly. Okay, that was the final question, so I'll leave it over to you for any final comments.

Thank you, Anton. Well, I don't really think we have anything more to add, so we just thank everyone who has listened. Hope you have a great day. Bye.

Thank you. Bye.