logo

Vef Ab

Q32024

10/23/2024

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the VEF third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you need to press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw a question please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference has been recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, David Nangle. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Nangle
Chief Executive Officer

Super. Thank you, Nadia. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to our third quarter results conference call. As per usual, I have our CIO, Alexis Camudos, with me today to help me in the presentation and the Q&A. And what we'll do is for the next 20 minutes, plus minus, is go through the latest and greatest from the best side and then open up for questions from you. The details of our presentation is on the webcast, which is live at the moment, as well as being downloadable from our website. But kicking in on slide two, key events of the quarter from our side. I think first and foremost, it's in the NAV performance, up 9% quarter-on-quarter. We now have a NAV of $475 million, and that's up 24% from 2022 lows, which is obviously a low point in the cycle. This has been driven in the quarter and year-to-date by a mixture of robust portfolio performance, healthy markets and FX tailwinds. But, you know, the most important thing for us is the portfolio performance because that's the key indication of the quality of our portfolio and where it's going and how it's performing today. Within that credit class is still our standout asset in terms of size and shape of 50% of our NAV. The Q2 numbers were out earlier this quarter. Q3 will be available soon. And, you know, the headlines there is A, they've won the battle for profitability and B, they're accelerating growth. And those are the two key things you want to see from any investment in a portfolio like ours. On the growth side, I think the key number that we've grabbed in this quarter is Originations, which is obviously the core of their business, up 16% quarter-on-quarter, and Q2 at over 30% year-on-year. So it bodes well in that we're reigniting growth at Creditas. And that is something, I guess, that feeds into the third point, which, from a portfolio perspective, the majority of the portfolio today is actually break-even, plus-minus. We're at 90% plus of the portfolio in that space. And once again, from talking about growth in Q1 of this year, Alec, from a portfolio perspective, now in Q3, we can actually talk about growth and point to data points proving that growth. Our cyclical side stories of Creditas and Compio are both starting to reignite growth and show growth in their loan books and their revenues. Compio probably running a quarter or so and a little bit harder than Creditas, but Creditas being the more public entity, so you're seeing the data come through from them. And then within the top three, JustPay, more structural growth being in Indian in payments, and has been growing through cycle at 50% plus both in terms of volumes and revenue. So it's very pleasing for us to be able to point to growth again, having been talking about getting to profitability, winning that battle, and now winning the growth battle. This is where private investing in tech, fintech should be, and we're getting back to that cycle turns. And what's linked to that really is the return on capital flow within the ecosystem. This is the venture ecosystem in general that you pull that down to emerging markets and FinTech that we play in. It's super encouraging when you see the raises going on out there in the markets. But more importantly, it's happening within our portfolio. In previous quarters this year, we pointed to TransferGo and Gringo raising size capital at or above our NAV marks. In this quarter, we add Confio to that list, which is a top three holding, and raised size capital in this quarter at our NAV mark plus minus. Good for the companies, good for their growth profile, good for reaffirming our NAV market, which is something important for the market and makes us happy, clearly. And then on the exit side, exit markets are opening up and showing signs of life, both M&A, IPO, and one, I guess, the standout within that at the moment is India and its robust IPO market, which continues to deliver. Getting to the numbers themselves on slide three, the headline numbers are $475 million of NAV, so it's a size NAV in our portfolio, again, that's up seven percent a year to date on a sec per share which is obviously a key indicator versus our share price and which is listed on the stock on stock exchange we're now at 461 sec per share that's up from 426 at the year end 2023 and i think it's much easier and better to look at it in a chart formation if you look at dollars which is the global currency and you look at our total map you know once again you go back to our earlier um charts or trends from 2015 when we started this company it was gradually up and to the right and then obviously took off the back end of 2020 and 21. pullback we had in 22 in line with markets we were quick to reset the value of our portfolio and now we're starting a new cycle not to predict the future but you can see after ebbing and flowing around the bottom and from the pullback evaluation year to date and quarter and quarter we're starting to see our portfolio move again there's not a forward leaning kind of guidance, but it is something you see from a chart formation that the NAV is starting to move again. And that's really a function of the markets, our portfolio and its performance and it reignited growth at a profitable pace. And the last one is the markets themselves, which obviously can be a tailwind or a headwind for everything we do. Year to date they've been a tailwind. Obviously the global markets like NASDAQ and S&P are strong, 20% plus year to date. More specifically, when we look at the FinTech indexes that we track and are an indication of the valuation or direction of travel of valuations in the public space for FinTech and then into the private space, you know, catching up with those global indices and growing harder in Q3, up 7% and 11% respectively. At this stage, the next few slides I'm going to pass to Alexis, who, as per usual, is going to take you through portfolio valuation and the evolution and all the moving parts of that over the last three months.

speaker
Alexis Camudos
Chief Investment Officer

alexis great thanks dave hi everyone um yeah just getting a little bit more granular granular on the evolution of the valuation marks um with the total portfolio growing nine percent quarter on quarter on slide six um the biggest drivers of that portfolio growth were credit house and just pay uh with 16 and 12 percent respectively quarter on quarter growth These were driven by continued strong company performance paired with multiple expansion from the comps and a slight BRL tailwind as well as the REI appreciated over the quarter. The next down you have two portfolio companies that raised fresh capital. Confio raised a sizable price round from internals which was priced within 4% of our second quarter 2024 That's why you see a 3.5% decrease in the mark there. This helps validate our mark-to-model valuation process and shows to us in the market that we are within the right ballpark with the process for these companies. an additional $12 million in the quarter as a Series C extension at the same valuation, bringing in fresh capital and a great new co-investor. So the mark there was flat. And then TransferGo, the latest transaction, which was set in the last quarter, benefited from the strengthening sterling in the quarter because it's an asset that's priced in sterling. Last two on this list are Solfacil and Nebo. Both saw healthy company performance and FX tailwinds offset by weakening comps for solar distributors and global SaaS, respectively. And the sum of all of that results in the 9% quarter-on-quarter change. Moving on to slide seven. So the biggest change to the valuation approach in the quarter was the size. round raised by Confio in August. So that moves from mark to model to latest transaction. That's alongside Gringo raising the $12 million in Series C extension, and that remains at the latest transaction, now resetting the clock for another 12 months. So the net result is that today, 27% of our portfolio is now marked to latest transaction, up significantly quarter on quarter because of the confio raise, with now 73% of the portfolio marked to model, and over 90% of those incorporating multiples further down the income statement. The direction of travel for the marks over the course of the year um has been um to latest transaction with significant raises um and it's uh these are important this is important because it helps validate our nav and also creates opportunities for some realizations over the course of the year uh moving on slide eight so just to quantify some of the drivers of the nav in the quarter for the portion of the portfolio 73 of the portfolio which is Master Model, portfolio performance was the largest contributor, contributing $20 million, or about 4.5% of NAV. And that is because of Creditas, and largely because of Creditas and JustPay, just given the size of those two assets within the Master Model section of the portfolio. Comps contributed $18 million, and that was multiple expenses. specifically for credit assets peer group, and then also a rebound in the payment comms for JustPay. That contributes about 4% to NAV appreciation. There was a small tailwind for the BRL, which drove the FX portion of the smart model portion of the portfolio. And then within latest transaction, The negative $3 million is reflective of the Confio round, which happened within 4% of the last mark-to-model that we had for the company. And the $2 million positive there is the transfer go appreciation of Sterling and the quarter. In the corporate side, the $3 million is OPEX and coupon payments. And then there was some FX translation impact on the bond from the appreciating second quarter. That's the overview of the NAV evolution of the quarter. Moving to slide nine. So sitting three quarters of the way through the year, we're feeling increasingly confident in the portfolio and the outlook for delivery, and therefore our NAV compounding. And that actually increasing from here. Now, we've got over 90% of the NAV, which has reached break-even, including the top portfolio companies. And we are feeling more and more comfortable that they are accelerating growth from a controllable base. This re-acceleration is resulting in our top-line growth for the next 12 months, for increasing to 40% for portfolio-weighted revenue growth and 60% for gross profit growth. As we're starting to see this come through in numbers and portfolio companies, and you'll see that in the publicly disclosed numbers as well from portfolio companies like Creditas, who is truly re-accelerating from a self-sustaining position. We're also seeing fresh capital coming into the portfolio, which is helping to provide companies with a buffer to fine-tune and optimize the self-sustaining growth. Given the strength of the portfolio, we continue to see investors leaning into the portfolio. And these events, as we said before, help validate our math and also create opportunities for realizations. Dave, back to you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-

Investor presentation