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ARC Resources Ltd.
11/4/2022
Good morning. My name is Marcella and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the AHRQ Resources third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there'll be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star then the number two. Thank you. Mr. Loco, you may begin your conference.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Terry Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Bibby, Chief Financial Officer, Lara Conrad, Chief Development Officer, and Armin Jahangiri, Chief Operating Officer. Before I turn it over to the executive team to take you through our third quarter results in 2023 budget, I'll remind everyone that this conference call includes forward-looking statements and non-GAAP and other financial measures with the associated risks outlined in the earnings release and our MD&A. All dollar amounts discussed today are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Finally, the press release, financial statements, and MD&A are available on our website as well as CDAR. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the line to questions. With that, I'll turn it over to our president and CEO, Terry Anderson. Terry, please go ahead.
Thanks, Dale, and good morning, everyone. A year ago, we laid out a plan that prioritized debt reduction in a balanced investment in our asset base with incremental shareholder returns. The primary takeaway from the quarter is we are executing to plan. Production, capital, and operating expenses were in line with expectations and are tracking to guidance. Our financial performance has been exceptional. And from a debt perspective, we are closing in on our long-term debt target, which supports a greater proportion of free cash flow to shareholders. The base dividend remains our primary method of returning capital to shareholders, which we have committed will grow as the business grows and as the share count is reduced. This quarter, we announced a 25% increase to our dividend, the fourth increase in the past six quarters. which remains sustainable through the commodity price cycle. We also continue to invest through share buybacks. They are an effective and accretive use of capital under what we believe are conservative pricing assumptions. Since renewing our NCIB at the end of August, we have bought back approximately 30% of the new NCIB allotment. Growing free cash flow per share is a focus, and we are executing on that by investing profitably in our assets and reducing the share count. I'll touch on a few operational items related to the corridor and also the 2023 capital budget before I turn it over to Chris to walk you through more details of our financial results. Production averaged just over 342,000 BOE per day over the course of a very active corridor. Our operations team completed several significant turnaround projects across our fields safely and efficiently. With the majority of planned seasonal maintenance behind us, we anticipate production volumes will increase in the fourth quarter to over 350,000 BOE per day, driven by growth at CAQA. As a result, we anticipate that operating and transportation costs per BOE will decrease over the balance of the year. Turning now to our 2023 budget, the capital program we put together balances profitable growth with the flexibility to increase shareholder returns as net debt is reduced. Underpinning this budget is our commitment to a strong balance sheet, which is a critical part of our business that allows us to capitalize on countercyclical opportunities. Next year, the preliminary budget of $1.8 billion is expected to deliver production of approximately 350,000 BOE per day, representing a 2% year-over-year growth and generating approximately $1.7 billion of free cash flow at the current forward curve. Approximately $1.4 billion, which incorporates inflation, was allocated to sustaining production across our asset base, split 70% in Alberta and 30% to British Columbia. The incremental 400 million above sustaining capital includes important production growth and margin expansion projects that further enhances the long-term profitability of the business. The first is an expansion at Sunrise that will add 80 million cubic feet per day of production for approximately $100 million. Sunrise is a very strategic asset for our company. It is one of our most profitable assets and has nearly zero emissions facilities. In addition, Sunrise will be direct connected to Coastal Gas Link, a pipeline that will supply natural gas to LNG off the West Coast. At CAQA, we plan to invest approximately $200 million in production growth and margin expansion. Of the $200 million, $130 million is in water infrastructure that will lower operating costs by $60 million per year or $0.50 per BOE at the corporate level, ultimately paying out in less than two years. The remainder will be used to increase production by 5% to 10% to approximately $190,000 to 200,000 BOE per day. The Kakwa area continues to deliver exceptional results with arc wells dominating the top wells in Alberta month after month. The final $100 million is earmarked to restore production in BC to previous levels following a year of relatively little activity. On this note, the budget we've outlined today is predicated on the timely and continued receipt of drilling permits on freehold lands in northeast BC. We have one rig drilling in BC right now, and we remain confident we will be able to execute the capital program put forth to restore production and regain operational momentum there next year. As it relates to Attachee, we remain prepared to sanction Attachee Phase 1 once the BC regulatory environment on Crown lands becomes more certain. Phase 1 is expected to cost approximately $700 million, including the facility's capital and initial wells to fill it, and would pay out in about two years at the current strip. Like others, inflation is impacting our business, but we are managing it both today and in the future. Long term planning and our scale are proving critical in ensuring we have access to services and materials to execute our program. And to that end, I'd really like to thank our people and service providers for their hard work and relentless focus on safety and efficiency in our operations. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to walk through the financial results.
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