8/6/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Lundin Mining's second quarter 2026 financial results call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. And to ask a question during the session, you would need to press star 11 on your telephone. You would then hear an automated message of us and your hand is raised. and to withdraw your question please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Jack Lundin, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning and welcome to Lundin Mining's second quarter 2026 conference call. Thank you for joining us today. A press release and presentation summarizing the quarter's results are available on our website where a replay of this call will also be made available. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's presentation and certain comments during the call, including our Q&A, will include forward-looking information that is subject to risks and uncertainties. I draw your attention to the cautionary statements on slide two and encourage you to review our MD&A and related filings available on CDAR for a full description of the relevant risk factors. As a reminder, all amounts discussed on today's call are in US dollars unless otherwise noted. Joining me on the call today is Juan Andres Morel, our Chief Operating Officer, and Teitur Poulsen, our Chief Financial Officer. Turning to slide four, the second quarter was another productive period for the company, operationally, financially, and strategically. In line with our corporate vision, we completed the acquisition of an additional 5% interest in Caceronas from our partner, JX Advanced Metals, bringing our total ownership to 75%. We also acquired a 31% interest in the Los Salados project, all for total consideration of $215 million. Los Helados is a large copper gold deposit located approximately 17 kilometers south of Casarones. This transaction strengthens our mineral resource base while providing compelling long-term growth optionality in a district we know well. On June 17th, we hosted our second annual Capital Markets Day, where we built on our strategic vision from last year and updated our financial outlook for the next five and 10 years. We highlighted multiple low capital intensive brownfield expansion opportunities at our three existing operations, Candelaria, Casaronas, and Chapada, alongside the transformational long-term growth potential of the Vicuña project. These opportunities collectively underpin our path to becoming a top 10 global copper producer. At the CMD, we approved the construction of an additional ball mill at Chapada which will result in improved recoveries at the operation in anticipation of the SAUVA growth project. Another tangible step in converting our brownfield pipeline into production. Construction is expected to commence by year end with commissioning targeted for late 2027. At Vicuña, a significant milestone was achieved during the quarter with the approval of the inclusion of the Jose Maria and Filo del Sol deposits under Argentina's RIGI PELTS program. Vicuña is the first copper mining project in Argentina to receive this more favorable designation. The approval provides long-term fiscal stability and investment certainty and is a meaningful step forward as we advance towards a stage one sanctioning decision. Subsequent to the quarter, Vicuña announced a long-term royalty and infrastructure trust agreement with the San Juan province over the life of mine, which consolidates pre-existing provincial royalties on the Filo del Sol and Jose Maria deposits into one framework. This includes a 3% mining royalty and a 1.5% gross revenue royalty to form a provincial infrastructure trust. The agreement provides long-term economic certainty and enhances the stability of the operating framework as we continue to progress toward a sanctioning decision. Lastly, on this slide, we repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares during the quarter, bringing our total year to date up to 6.1 million, which is consistent with our confidence in the intrinsic value of the company and the strength of our balance sheet. Since 2017, We have returned over $1.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Operationally, the quarter was very consistent, benefiting from disciplined execution across our operations and a supportive copper price environment. Copper production of approximately 76,900 tons at a consolidated cash cost of $2.11 per pound translated into $1.2 billion in revenue and $360 million of free cash flow from operations, further strengthening our balance sheet and providing the financial flexibility to continue investing in our growth pipeline while returning capital to shareholders. Despite the storm event after the quarter, which Juan Andres will talk to in more detail in the operations section, at the halfway point of the year, we continue to remain on track to achieve our annual production guidance range. Our operations have performed well, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver on our full year objectives. Operational costs during the quarter were impacted by higher diesel prices. Should current pricing persist throughout the remainder of the year, we do still expect to be within our guidance cost outlook, our guided cost outlook, excuse me. Looking ahead, our focus continues to be on safety performance, delivering operational excellence, advancing our portfolio of organic growth opportunities and progressing the Vicuña project toward a sanctioning decision. Supported by high margin, long life assets, a disciplined capital allocation strategy, and one of the strongest copper profiles in the industry, we believe Lundin Mining is well positioned to deliver sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. I will now hand it over to Juan Andres to walk through the operational results in more detail.

speaker
Juan Andres Morel
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Our operations performed consistently in the second quarter, and we remain on track to meet our annual production guidance for both copper and gold. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the storm in Chile impacted operations at Cacerones, and I will provide more detail on this later on in the presentation. For the quarter, copper production from our three operations totaled 76,900 tons as mentioned previously. And for the first half of the year, we produced approximately 157,000 tons of copper. Gold production for the quarter was 33,000 ounces, bringing our year-to-date gold production to approximately 65,000 ounces. When we compare our first half copper production to our full year guidance range of 310,000 to 335,000 tons, We are tracking to guidance despite the weather related events mentioned earlier, which is consistent with our expectations that production will be second half waiter, particularly at Candelaria. For gold, we're also well positioned to achieve our full year guidance of 134,000 to 149,000 ounces. Overall, the portfolio is performing in line with our planning assumptions. and our operations are delivering the consistency we need to meet our targets. Moving to each operation individually, at Cacerones copper production for the quarter was approximately 34,000 tons with higher grades from phase six and strong throughput continuing to benefit from our full potential program initiatives. Year-to-date production is 73,000 tons. Cover production at Candelaria for the quarter was approximately 31,000 tons, with mining rates somewhat lower than the first quarter, reflecting additional shovel maintenance and ramp work in phase 11 of the open pit. We remain confident that Candelaria is on track to meet its full year guidance. Candelaria's production profile remains second half weighted, with higher grades planned, expected in the third and fourth quarter as we continue advancing phase 12. Gold production for the quarter was approximately 18,000 ounces in line with expectations. At Chapada, we had a good quarter with strong throughput and copper grades slightly better than recent periods as we access higher grade portions in the South Pit. Copper production for the quarter was approximately 12,000 tons and gold production was 16,000 ounces. We anticipate production levels to remain consistent with Q2 through the second half of the year. Subsequent to the quarter, Chile's Atacama region suffered severe winter storms that caused regional floodings and significant snowfall. Candelaria saw over 35 millimeters of rain and Cacedones had 3.4 meters of snow. The country reported 13 fatalities and over 2,200 injuries associated with the storm, a truly tragic event that impacted several regions in Chile. I want to acknowledge the Cacerones and Candelaria teams for all their hard work and proactively taking precautionary measures to protect employees and a special thank you to the crew at Cacerones that were isolated at the site during the storm for their dedication. We're fortunate that everyone was safe and no injuries were reported at our operations. Mining operations at Candelaria were briefly impacted by heavy rainfall. However, the mill was able to continue to operate using existing ore stockpiles. Mining operations have since returned to full capacity, and the company remains on track to meet its full-year production guidance. At Cacerones, operations were disrupted due to the heavy snowfall and high winds, which limited access to site and knocked out power for 12 days. Backup power generators supported critical activities during this time. Winds reached over 125 kilometers per hour, and ice buildup damaged two power line towers that required repairs. Crews worked all last week to remove the damaged structure and replace it. The photo on the right highlights the damage to the upper tower and cross arm of one of the towers. Power has been restored at site, and the restart of operations at Cacerones is currently underway. Initial concentrate production is expected by the end of the week and full capacity early next week. Prior to the storm, Cacerones was tracking to the upper end of the copper guidance, producing 73,000 tons in the first half of the year against the range of 130,000 tons to 140,000 tons. We account for some weather-related disruptions during our planning process but not to this magnitude. After reviewing the mine plan for the remainder of the year and making some adjustments, we now anticipate coming in on the lower half of the guidance range at Cacerones. This assumes that the weather cooperates with us for the rest of the year and operations perform well in the third and fourth quarters. Cash cost guidance at Cacerones remains the same. Year-to-date, we're tracking below the guidance range at $1.85 per pound, and we now anticipate being within the cost guidance range of Cacerones, which is $2.05 per pound to $2.25 per pound. Candelaria and Chapada continue to perform well, and we reiterate our full-year consolidated production guidance range of $310,000 to 335,000 tons of copper and 134,000 to 149,000 ounces of coal for the year. I will now turn the call over to Teitur to provide a summary on our financial results.

speaker
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Juan Andres, and good morning, everybody. As mentioned earlier, this was another quarter of consistent operational performance, which has translated into excellent financial results. Revenue from operations for the quarter was over 1.2 billion, a near record, driven by strong copper and gold prices alongside consistent production volumes across our three operations. Our revenue mix remained heavily skewed toward copper, which accounted for approximately 88% of total revenue in the quarter, providing one of the highest leverages to copper amongst our peers. Gold contributed approximately 8% and moly approximately 2%. with the remainder from silver and other metals. By operation, Caseronis was the largest revenue contributor at approximately 518 million, followed by Candelaria at approximately 476 million and Chapata at 219 million. On a year-to-date basis, revenue totalled 2.4 billion, reflecting the significant step up in realized prices for both copper and gold compared to prior year comparable periods. Now turning to volume sold and realized prices. During the quarter, we produced 77,000 tons copper and sold approximately 74,000 tons, one of the lower quarters in recent times in terms of sales volumes for copper. This relatively low sales volume was offset by a record high realized copper price of $6.51 per pound and a meaningful uplift from $4.40 per pound realized in the same quarter last year. Gold was sold at a realized price of $4,385 per ounce. At the end of the quarter, approximately 47,600 tons of copper remained provisionally priced at $6.07 per pound, with final pricing to be settled in the coming quarters, with the majority of these to be settled during the third quarter. Moving to production costs, the underlying cost structure across our operations remained stable during the quarter, with total production costs of approximately 513 million. The primary driver of modest cost pressure in the quarter was higher diesel prices, which impacted all three operations to varying degrees. As Jack noted, should diesel pricing persist at current levels through the remainder of the year, we still expect to meet consolidated cash cost guidance of $1.90 to $2.10 per pound copper. Excluding this fuel driven impact, the underlying operational cost base continues to perform in line with our expectation. Higher diesel prices increased costs by approximately 15 million in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter, equating to approximately 8 to 10 cents per pound copper on a consolidated basis. Our consolidated cash cost was $2.11 per pound of copper for the quarter, demonstrating disciplined cost management despite higher diesel prices. Although this was slightly above our 2026 guidance range of $1.90 to $2.10 per pound, we remain on track to achieve full-year guidance. Year-to-date cash costs are $1.88 per pound, below the low end of the full-year guidance range. At Caserona, cash costs remain broadly in line with expectation at $2.14 per pound. The cash costs are continuing to benefit from strong cattle production and favorable TCRC terms and somewhat offset by higher diesel costs during this quarter. At Candelaria, cash costs were somewhat higher in the quarter at $2.65 per pound, reflecting lower byproduct credits driven by a lower real as gold price compared to recent periods, as well as slightly higher stripping costs and lower sold volumes relative to the prior quarter. In addition, Candelaria also has a higher level of diesel consumption relative to our other assets, and therefore the increase in diesel prices is more impactful at Candelaria compared to our other assets. At Zapata, the absolute cost for the quarter amounted to $84 million, which is in line with prior quarter. The cash cost recorded was 62 cents per pound, which is below the bottom end of the full year guidance at Zapata. at 75 cents to 95 cents per pound, with the outperformance mainly relating to higher byproduct credits from a higher realized gold price as well as higher gold volume sold. The company's consolidated cash cost guidance for the year remains at $1.90 to $2.10 per pound of copper. Turning to capital expenditure, sustaining capital expenditure for the quarter were 111 million, with spending across all three operations primarily directed toward open-pit waste stripping, underground mine development, tailing storage facility upgrades, and investment in new mining equipment. Expansionary capital expenditure were 83 million in the quarter, bringing year-to-date expansionary spend to 137 million. The majority of the expansionary capital in the quarter was attributable to the Vicuña project, where spending totalled 74 million as activities continue to ramp up, including engineering, training, and early earthworks. As previously announced at Chapada, the sanctioning of the additional ball mill on the De Suva growth project has increased our full-year expansionary capital guidance from 50 million to 85 million, with construction expected to commence before year-end and commissioning targeted for late 2027. Full year sustaining capital guidance remains unchanged at 550 million, and we continue to reaffirm our total 2027 capital expenditure guidance of 1 billion and 30 million for the full year, implying a higher spend rate in the second half of the year to meet that guidance. Our key financial metrics for the second quarter are presented on slides 16 and 17. We generated adjusted EBITDA of 658 million for the quarter and adjusted operating cash flow of 495 million. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EBITDA now stands at approximately 1.3 billion and adjusted operating cash flow at 945 million, both of which are tracking ahead of our full year guidance as provided at our recent Capital Markets Day event in June. Pre-cash flow from operations for the quarter was 360 million, which reflects our working capital build of 36 million, sustaining capital investment of 111 million, as well as cash taxes paid of 139 million. Adjusted earnings attributable to Lundin Mining shareholders was 257 million, and on a per share basis, 30 cents for the quarter. Slide 18 presents in greater detail the sources and uses of cash in the second quarter. The company's balance sheet remains strong, and we continue to hold a net cash position on the balance sheet. As already mentioned, the company generated adjusted operating cash flow of $495 million during the quarter. And after working capital built and capital investments, the free cash flow generated during the quarter amounted to $265 We completed the 250 million acquisition of an additional 5% interest in Casarona, along with a 31% interest in Los Salados during the quarter. This acquisition was funded entirely from our balance sheet. During the quarter, we paid two regular quarterly dividends, with one payment occurring in April and another in June, in total 34 million. In addition, we completed approximately 56 million of share repurchases under our normal course issuer bid in the quarter. After the distribution of 82 million to the minority shareholder in Casarona and certain other smaller cash outlays, the net result is a balance sheet which remains the net cash position of 79 million. Despite having returned 90 million to shareholders during the quarter, in addition to the significant investments in the Vicuña district through the acquisition of an additional equity stake in Casarona Mine, as well as a meaningful stake in the Los Salados project in parallel with the continued capital investments into the Vicuña project. And in addition, having returned 90 million in shareholder distributions. In addition to the net cash on the balance sheet, the company continues to have liquidity of 2.5 billion available through its corporate revolving credit facility. This facility will increase to 4.5 billion once the stage one of Vicuña has been sanctioned. thus leaving the company fully funded for stage one constructions at the Vicuña project. I will now turn the call back to Jack to provide an update on the Vicuña project and our concluding remarks.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Teitur. Vicuña continues to make significant progress towards the potential sanction decision with project activities already underway and a strong foundation being established for future development. We are pleased to announce that yesterday we secured a long-term royalty agreement with San Juan province that locks in fiscal stability for the life of mine. The provincial royalty agreement marks another important milestone in advancing the project and further reinforces the strong collaborative relationship we have established with the province of San Juan. The Vicuña project is subject to two existing provincial royalties, a 3% mining royalty and a 1.5% provincial infrastructure trust. Both of these royalties were reflected in the economics of the PEA. The provincial agreement consolidates infrastructure obligations associated with both deposits into a single 1.5% gross revenue infrastructure trust and caps the provincial mining royalty at 3% of Gross Revenue, both fixed for the life of the mine. As part of the agreement, the province will receive an upfront $250 million infrastructure trust contribution, $125 million net to Lundin Mining that will provide funds to the San Juan Province for local infrastructure and community initiatives. The advance will help deliver near-term tangible benefits to stakeholders while contributing to the broader development of the project. Vicuña will receive a five-year infrastructure trust payment holiday from First Production. The agreement is subject to provincial approval and the advance payment is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. Additionally, last week we also received approval from the National Gas and Electric Regulatory Entity to build the high voltage power line and electrical infrastructure for the project. Once completed, it will tie into the Argentine interconnection system. Vicuña will build out the Rodeo Chaparro Corridor as part of the future electrical infrastructure of San Juan, which will contribute to the growth of the province in the decades to come. This approval now clears the way and through the funding of the infrastructure, it allows Vicuña to access the majority of the capacity with the remainder available for public use. Together with the recent RegiePELP approval and the provincial agreements, It strengthens the foundation for Vicuña and supports our objective of responsibly unlocking the full potential of the project for the benefit of all stakeholders. Our near-term priorities are to advance project and operational readiness, deliver the Stage 1 estimate update, unlock further value across Stages 2 and 3 through trade-offs and engineering, and position Vicuña for a successful sanction decision as early as before the end of this year. With the support of Lundin Mining and our partners BHP and the benefits provided through RIGI, we are building the foundation for what has the potential to become one of the world's most significant copper, gold, silver districts. In closing, the quarter demonstrated the operational consistency of our business, high margin production from three long life assets at a time of strong copper and gold prices. which translated into 1.2 billion in revenue, 658 million of adjusted EBITDA, and 360 million of free cash flow from operations. At the midway point of this year, we remain on track to achieve our full year consolidated production guidance range. Although the storm affected operations at Casaronas subsequent to the second quarter, we still expect to achieve guidance at Casaronas given we're tracking towards the upper end of the guidance range prior to this shutdown. While we are facing modest cost pressures from higher diesel prices, we expect to remain within cost guidance for the year. Strategically, the quarter was significant with the REGIE approval, royalty agreement, and power line approval at Vicuña, the sanctioning of the Chapada ball mill, the closing of the transaction to increase ownership in Casaronas, and the addition of the Los Salados interest all reflect disciplined execution of a clear and well-funded growth strategy. Each of these steps moves us meaningfully closer to our goal of becoming a top 10 global copper producer. Operator, I will now open the call for any questions. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 111 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. And to withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Our first question will come from Oris Wakoda with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

speaker
Oris Wakoda
Analyst, Scotiabank

Good morning. A question about the increase, the 100 million or up to 100 million increase in the NCIB that was announced. Curious if you could speak or give us a little bit of color on that. It's very positive to see something like that as you're about to go into a big project build. And I'm just curious if we could, if there's any read through on that with respect to where you're seeing your balance sheet, but also whether we could see similar increases to the NCIB moving forward, say for next year.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for the question. As we mentioned in the press release and on the call here, we've increased it for a one-time up to $100 million additional, inclusive of the $150 million original buyback approval. For us, we're looking at that based on the valuation that we have this year, based on the financial performance that we've had and the positive tailwinds that we're seeing in commodity prices. Therefore, I think we're being opportunistic and the board was able to approve that. Going forward, it's too early to say if we're going to be looking to increase. As you mentioned, we're going to be coming into a pretty capital intensive period with Vicuña and our other brownfield expansion opportunities. So we'll look at that later down the line. But for now, I think looking at maintaining our absolute shareholder distribution program of $220 million a year, and dividends and buybacks will look for that to be maintained in the long term. And this is more of a one-off opportunity.

speaker
Oris Wakoda
Analyst, Scotiabank

Appreciate the caller. If I could just shift gears for a second to Vicuna. You mentioned you're working on the Stage 1 update. Can you just walk us through what milestones are left that would be in front of the sanctioning decision, I guess, later this fall?

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. I mean, you know, mainly it's the bottom-up estimate that we're doing for stage one and kind of refining the execution plan and working with our contractors to really put ourselves in a position to have a successful execution plan for stage one. As you've seen, we've now got the long-term stability agreement in place with the province of San Juan. That came on the heels of achieving the RIGI PELP approval back in June. And so from a permitting approval perspective, we're basically there. There are some various sectoral permits that we're still going to be achieving, which would be a requirement for a sanctioned decision. But really the focus for us now is getting this bottom-up estimates completed reviewing that with the technical independent peer review teams both at BHP and Lundin Mining and then seeking a favorable sanction approval potentially before the end of this year.

speaker
Oris Wakoda
Analyst, Scotiabank

Appreciate the color. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And our next question is going to come from Matt Green with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

speaker
Matt Green
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, good morning, Jack and team. Thanks for taking my question. Juan Andres, perhaps one for you. Look, I appreciate you juggling some extreme external factors here with the weather, but just on Candelaria with the rain, well beyond your normal operating assumptions, how do regulators approach this when you have to maybe temporarily discharge water? And perhaps you can just talk us through how you manage all that excess water. Do you have to Thank you, Matt, for the question. Interesting angle for the event. We're in the middle of the desert, so most of the water is absorbed by the pit and the waste dump. So we don't have any contact water that we need to discharge

speaker
Juan Andres Morel
Chief Operating Officer

to any nearby river or body of water. So this is a normal operation. We did have an inspection from CERNA-QMIN, which is the agency that oversees the mining industry in Chile, and they visited all our facilities in Candelaria and found that everything was being operated and managed as expected.

speaker
Matt Green
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's great to hear. And then just on Casarrones, in your opening remarks, you said you're reviewing the mine plan and making some adjustments and you feel comfortable in the guidance range. Can you just expand on what adjustments you are making to the mine plan in the second half?

speaker
Juan Andres Morel
Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, so we found some opportunities. Basically, by adjusting the location of some loading equipment, we will be able to ensure the high grades that we had in the fourth quarter to make sure that there are going to be mine during the year. So basically keeping the high grades within the mine plan of 2026. And we also found an opportunity to postpone one shutdown at the mill. Given that we will be basically not operating for several weeks, we think that the liners of the mill can be postponed until the first week of January.

speaker
Matt Green
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. That's great. And if I could just squeeze one more in, more for clarification. Teitur, congratulations on the San Juan government-province agreement. Just to be clear, that payment into the semi-quarter, is that already budgeted in your CapEx guidance? Sorry if I missed that.

speaker
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer

No, it's not budgeted, and we don't really see it as a CapEx item. This is an advanced contribution in return for getting a five-year royalty holiday when we start up production. So we've paid our prop $250 million, and that's roughly MPV neutral when you look at saving royalties for the first five years of production.

speaker
Matt Green
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, got it. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. and the next question is going to come from Yannis Masoulis with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

speaker
Yannis Masoulis
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. First question on Vicuña. I guess we'll have to wait for the FID decision and outcome of the CAPEX review for stage one sometime by the end of the year. But I also wanted to ask about stages two and three. where you're planning to release a PFS by the second half of next year. Can you talk about your latest thoughts around possible changes to the flow sheet and mine planning and whether a similar bottom-up capex review is on the cards like we've seen with stage one? Thank you.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Jonas. Thanks for the question. So definitely before we would look to sanction the future stages of Vicuña, we would be doing a bottom-up estimate on both stages two and three. Right now, as we guided in our capital markets day, kind of second half of next year to have an updated study on stages two and three, we are looking at kind of simplifying the flow sheet for stage two, bit complex in what we presented in the PEA. So the team is working on kind of a simplified flow sheet, which will probably form the basis of the PFS. And then on stage three, you know, a lot of the information is coming through the Thank you for joining us today. other than that flow sheet optimization that I mentioned for stage two.

speaker
Yannis Masoulis
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you for that, Jack. And second question on Cacerones, on the MOLLE production, which was fairly weak relative to expectations due to recoveries that have come down to 27%. Can you give a sense on what we should expect for the second half of this year? And when do you actually expect recoveries to improve towards the historical levels?

speaker
Juan Andres Morel
Chief Operating Officer

Hi, Ioannis. Thank you for the question. We have been experiencing some metallurgical problems in the MOLLE plant. As we move from the secondary portion of the deposit into the primary portion of the deposit, we're seeing a new mineralogical species coming up with the MOLLE. and that has been causing some recovery issues at the MOLLE plant. So we're dealing with that, we're investigating different reagents and changes to the flow sheet, but definitely for this year we do not expect to meet the target that we had for the MOLLE and we expect to resume the level of recoveries and performance in the next year. And of course as we move away from that zone in the pit, Recoveries will improve, but as long as we're in that part of the deposit, we'll be seeing these challenges.

speaker
Yannis Masoulis
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Very clear. Thank you very much. And maybe one last question for Teitur on this upfront payment of $250 million on a 100% basis related to the Infrastructure Trust. If I were to put everything on spot, it would seem that it's actually potentially NPV Positive for Lundin Mining. Is that fair to say? And was your comment on NPV neutral based on a more conservative price tag? Or would you have a different conclusion based on what you have on your production profile?

speaker
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I mean, it all, I guess, depends on what your view on copper price is at the time when we start off. And it will also obviously depend on Thank you very much and best of luck.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And the next question will come from Matthew Murphy with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

speaker
Matthew Murphy
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hello. I had another weather question. How did Vicuna fare in this winter storm? You said Casarones, I think, got three and a half meters of snow. Did you see the same thing on the Argentina side of the border?

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey Matt, great question. And yeah, definitely on the Argentinian side of the border and where the Batadero camp is located approximately 40 kilometers or 50 kilometers away from where Casaronas is. You know, it was an extreme weather event that they felt at Batadero and in the upper region of the San Juan province. Fortunately, no major safety incidents and the recovery program is less extensive because we're not in project development mode or in operations. There are some early work activities that had to be paused and drilling in the winter for the Vicuna District is always tightened up to make sure that we're not having rigs kind of exposed in far to reach areas. So I think they were well prepared, but no doubt it was a significant severe weather event that impacted both sides of that mountain range.

speaker
Matthew Murphy
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

And do you know last time Castrones would have experienced something like this?

speaker
Juan Andres Morel
Chief Operating Officer

Yes. Hi, Matt. This is Juan Andres. In 2017, the previous operator also experienced a similar situation like this. At that time, they had like 320 centimeters of snow, and they also experienced a shutdown. So we could say, luckily, there was some experience in the team on dealing with a situation like this.

speaker
Matthew Murphy
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Got it. Okay. Yeah, just interested because, you know, everyone thinks about high altitude and how risky, and then you have a major event and no guidance cut. So that's good to see. And then the language around sanctioning where it says as early as year end, are we still okay to read that as likely before year end for Vicuna?

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Matt, it's Jack here. of course yeah that's what we've been you know setting our targets on since the earlier part of this year and so that still remains intact as you've seen we've made a lot of progress on getting the various stability agreements in place and now we're working on the you know the estimate and the execution plan for stage one so yeah we're still trending towards towards the end of this year okay and then one more just on the cadence of capex you're tracking

speaker
Matthew Murphy
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Fairly low relative to guidance, really across the board, but especially on expansionary CapEx items. Any thoughts around how we might see that ramp?

speaker
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, I think that's just a match, the nature of a big project like Vicuña, you're continuously wrapping up, so activity levels towards the end of the year are always going to be higher than at the beginning of the year, so That's not really outside our forecast at the moment. On the sustaining CAPEX side, I think it's particularly Casarona which is lagging a bit behind our guidance and that's again related to cadence of certain equipment purchases and certain other projects that are scheduled in the second half You know, notably on IT improvements, telecommunication improvements, etc. So the Castrona team feels confident that they will be able to catch up in the second half on some of these projects. So therefore, we retain full year guidance on all fronts.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

And to complement what Teitur was saying, also remember that we sanctioned the additional ball mill at Chapada at the midpoint of this year. So that expansionary CapEx wouldn't have come in until now. Yep, exactly.

speaker
Matthew Murphy
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. Our next question will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Your line's open.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, this is Adam Smirowski calling on behalf of Lawson. Just following up on the Chapada, how should we think about growth capex there in 2027? Should we expect to see a level similar to 2026? Any detail would be appreciated there.

speaker
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer

For the ball mill, That project is going to be all in around about 65 million dollars, of which we're spending 35 this year, so it's roughly a split 50-50 between this year and next year. And then if you couple in this phase one of Suva, we've guided to all-in capex of 110 million dollars for that project, including the ball mill. So the ball mill is 65 million out of the 110, and the rest will be allocated on Suva as and when that's finally sanctioned by our board.

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Fantastic. Thank you. And I was hoping you could talk about the strategy on M&A following the activity this quarter with the increased stake in Katsouronas and acquiring interest at Los Salados. Is there an appetite for more or for larger acquisitions? Thanks for the question, as always. Lundin Mining being a Lundin Group entity, we stay opportunistic when we're looking at opportunities to grow our portfolio through M&A activities. I mean, we've got a very solid asset base today. We're looking to grow production at all of our sites. And then with the big development project of Vicuna, I think we've got a good plate of opportunities in the existing portfolio. That being said, with the financial standing that we have and kind of where we're seeing the market today, there's always opportunities to Thank you very much. Thank you. And our next question will come from Stefan Iannou with ATB. Your line is now open.

speaker
Stefan Iannou
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Yeah, great. Thanks very much. I'm just curious, you mentioned the stage two sort of update study anticipated sometime later next year would look to sort of a simplified flow sheet or operation. Can you just say, is that centered largely on the gold and the copper sort of components coming out of phyllo? Or should we read into that, that you may also be considering potentially other sort of strategic feed sources going into stage two?

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks for the question. No, really it is just optimizing around the ore body of the phyllo del Sol deposit and the oxide zone at phyllo. So it's still very much intact on building off of what we designed for stage two, but just looking to optimize and potentially simplify that flow sheet.

speaker
Stefan Iannou
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thanks very much, guys.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Matt Green with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

speaker
Matt Green
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey Jack, thanks for taking my follow-up. Actually, just to follow on from that phase two, streamlining, how are you, I mean, to the extent you can, are you looking at sort of new technologies, novel technologies? Is this part of your thinking?

speaker
Jack Lundin
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Matt, you know, good question as well. Like, we're definitely looking at different types of leaching technologies and seeing how we can implement that into the design for stage two. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This does conclude today's Q&A session and also this will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

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