Timbercreek Financial Corp.

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Timber Creek Financial's first quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for analysts. Analysts are asked to raise their hand to register for a question. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Blair Chamberlain. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are Scott Rowland, our Chief Investment Officer, Tracy Johnson, our Chief Financial Officer, and Jeff McCabe, who leads Canadian Originations and Global Syndication. Q1 marked a good start, 2026, with strong origination activity and continued progress in repositioning the portfolio. During the quarter, we deployed 224 million, and the portfolio has grown nearly 15% year-over-year, to approximately $1.24 billion, reflecting the sustained level of lending activity we've seen over the past 12 months. That investment income for the quarter was solid at $25.1 million, a distributable income of 18 cents per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 98.5. Importantly, we continue to make steady progress resolving the legacy-stage loans and redeploying that capital into high-quality, income-producing investments, which we expect will continue to strengthen the earnings power of the portfolio as we move through 2026. The underlying cash generating strength of the portfolio remains intact, and our core lending platform continues to perform as expected. With improving transaction activity in commercial real estate and a strong pipeline of opportunities, we're well positioned to deliver the portfolio growth to the balance of the year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott to walk through the portfolio in more detail.

Scott? Thanks, Blair, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll spend a few minutes reviewing portfolio composition and performance, touch on asset management activity related to stage loans, and then hand things over to Jeff to discuss origination trends. At a high level, the portfolio remains well aligned with our longstanding risk framework. At quarter end, just over 81% of the portfolio was invested in cash flowing properties. And multi-residential assets continue to represent the largest single asset class at approximately 60%. First mortgages accounted for roughly 95% of the portfolio at the end of Q1. The weighted average loan-to-value was 66.5%. The weighted average interest rate for the quarter was 7.7%, compared to 8.1% in Q4 and 8.7% a year ago. This reflects the impact of the Bank of Canada rate reductions over the past year. Importantly, 88.4% of the portfolio is floating rate with contractual rate floors, and the vast majority of those loans are currently operating at their rate floor levels. As rates have come down, we are also seeing opportunities to capture incremental margin through a combination of a lower cost of bank financing and higher fee contribution as transaction volumes increase. This dynamic is consistent with our experience managing the portfolio through previous rate cycles. In terms of the asset allocation by region, 92% of the capital is concentrated in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Alberta, and forecasted and focused on urban markets. As Blair highlighted, we continue to make steady progress on our remaining Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans. Over the past year, most of these files have advanced meaningfully, whether through zoning approvals, leasing improvements, preparation for sale. As these milestones are achieved, assets are increasingly positioned for resolution. For example, two Stage 3 Calgary assets, downtown office tower and adjacent retail building, were sold subsequent to quarter end. Capital recovered through these processes is being redeployed into new income-producing loans, and we expect this capital recycling to continue throughout 2026 and for the percentage of stage loans to decrease materially. At this point, I'll turn things over to Jeff to discuss origination activity and the lending environment.

Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. While the commercial real estate market continues to show signs of stabilization, supported by improving transaction activity across the country, broader geopolitical volatility has tempered the pace of recovery and contributed to some increased interest rate uncertainty. Against this backdrop, however, Timber Creek, successfully deployed $224 million during the first quarter across 13 new investments and incremental advances, primarily focused on lower LTV multi-residential opportunities. This deployment was largely offset by repayments totaling $223 million, reflecting both the short-duration nature of our model and successful outcomes on prior originations. While this level of repayment moderated sequential portfolio growth, Turnover represents a healthy source of capital recycling, creating ongoing opportunities to redeploy capital and generate fee income to support distributable income as origination activity remains elevated. A higher cost of long-term debt appears to be driving increased appetite for our interim floating rate product. As long-term debt decisions are being delayed in hopes of a near-term resolution of the Iran conflict, and a resulting softening of the yield curve. As such, momentum from Q4-Q1 has carried into the second quarter, with an active current pipeline and conditions that are supportive of continued robust subordination activity through the balance of the year. Our ability to syndicate select transactions with institutional partners provides additional capacity and supports earnings and DI while maintaining discipline on the balance sheet. I'll now turn the call over to Tracy to review the financial results in more detail.

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. Starting with the income statement, net investment income on financial assets measured at amortized costs was $25.1 million in Q1, consistent with the prior quarter as portfolio growth and lower financing costs offset the impact of lower benchmark rates. Distributable income for the quarter was $14.5 million, or $0.18 per share, compared to $15 million in Q4 2025. The payout ratio on distributable income was within our targeted range at 98.5%. Net income for the quarter was $10.4 million. Included in that result were expected credit losses of $3.7 million, reflecting firm sales prices for two Stage 3 assets now sold in Q2 2026. Looking at earnings and distributable income over the past several years, you can see that distributable income per share has remained relatively stable, even as IFRS earnings have reflected the timing of credit provisions and valuation adjustments. Over the median terms, quarterly distributable income per share has generally ranged between 17 cents and 21 cents per share, with an average of approximately 19 cents. This profile reflects the recurring income characteristics of the portfolio supplemented by fee income as capital is recycled. Looking quickly at the balance sheet, net mortgage investments excluding syndications totaled just over $1.24 billion at quarter end, an increase of approximately $161 million year over year. Credit utilization increased at quarter end, reflecting strong origination activity during the quarter. Alongside repayments, asset resolutions, and syndication activity, we maintain flexibility to find new opportunities. Overall, we continue to see ample opportunities to deploy capital prudently against the strong origination pipeline as we move through 2026. With that, I'll turn the call back to Scott for closing remarks.

Thanks, Tracy. Looking ahead, we are increasingly constructive on the outlook for Canadian commercial real estate. Transaction activity is improving, financing conditions are becoming more supportive, and asset pricing appears to be recalibrating in a way that encourages buyer participation. For Timber Creek, this environment supports both origination activity and capital recycling. We expect to continue advancing staged assets towards resolution, redeploying capital into new investments, and growing the portfolio in a disciplined manner as the year progresses. Taken together, we believe the company is well-positioned for the next phase of the cycle, with a portfolio focused on generating stable income, managing risk conservatively, and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now open the call to questions.

We will now take any analyst questions. If you have a question, please click the raise hand button at the bottom right of the screen below. The first question comes from Graham Riding. Graham, your line is open. Please go ahead. Graham, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Can you hear me okay? Thanks.

So originations look pretty healthy in the quarter and also retainance and turnover picked up. Is your message that this is a reasonable sort of run rate and something that you sort of a low-life activity that you could expect to persist through the rest of the year?

Hey, Graham, it's Jeff. Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, I think we've seen consistent pipeline activity, like, you know, from early sort of deal identified, LOI issued, commitments issued, and signed commitments consistently kind of through the last couple of quarters, and we continue to see that activity today, which, you know, it's fulsome across all these categories, and we're feeling good. confident that this is reflective of, you know, what we're expecting going forward.

Okay, great. And it looks like there's some progress post-quarter on the staged loans. I think you called out a couple of Calgary office loans. Anything else that you would sort of call out where you're seeing progress in the staged loans?

I think the major project that I can say we're following, Graham, is – We have a significant project in Vancouver that is currently in the market for sale. That's about, I'm going to say about 50% of this exposure that I'm thinking about. That's going to be a longer process. It's probably going to take a quarter or two. But it's a fully zoned project. It's actively being marketed. So that's a resolution we expect this year. And that will be meaningful for sure.

Okay, great. And then my last question, just your weighted average rate, interest rate did trend down a bit quarter over quarter. So it is going to have an impact on your net interest income. Sort of big picture, what would be the sort of main pieces in your business that sort of need to surface in the second half of this year or looking into 2027 in order to get EPS back to a level that, you know, meets the dividend and book value per share doesn't experience any further attrition?

Yeah, that's a good question. I think we look at it a couple different ways. First of all, even in the position that we find ourselves in today, right, I think we do cover on a DI basis. I think a couple different things are happening within the program. So I think – and we've operated, right? We've operated even in a lower wear environment than this. So a couple things are starting to happen. So as wear comes down, our financing costs are also lower, which obviously offsets a portion of that. The other thing that we're starting to see is margin expansion. So even though the headline wear comes down a bit, we're getting more credit spread above our cost of funds. So we're starting to see, and this is just sort of reflected, you know, borrowers, projects, they sort of handle certain coupons. So as interest rates are coming down, we're able to increase that credit spread, which, although the wear may be lower, our return on equity, right, can be stabilized. And then the other thing that's happening is, to Jeff's point a minute ago, as we start to see more accelerations, deal flow. We'll churn more fees to the book. That will also materially help with the payout ratio. And I look at all those sort of things as sort of the organic part of the model that works. And then the other thing for us, of course, is the stage loans are a bit of a fee break for us, right? A bit of a headwind for us, of course, because we're not churning that portion of the book. We don't get as effective financing leverage on that portion of the book. So it's just earning a lower wear. So as we resolve those loans, instead of making, you know, 5%, 6%-ish on those loans, we redeploy that money. I'm thinking equity. This is an equity return, but that's more like a 10 or 11 for us. And that will be, you know, again, a tailwind for us as we roll through 2026. And Blair, do you want to add to that?

Yeah. Hey, Graham. It's Blair. We've talked to you. Mike about this a bit last night. So we're going to share with you guys, we'll probably put in the presentation as well, a graph that kind of speaks to what Scott said a minute ago. I mean, there was a number of years where crime was lower, where it was lower, and our payout ratio was also lower. So it's information that you can find if you wanted to go back seven, eight, nine, ten years. But we're happy to share it to make it easier. So

um i certainly wouldn't assume that uh you know the lower where equals higher pay ratio like what will we can show you that that's not the case oh that's awful and then i think um what you were sort of referring to there was just the the stage loans like once they're normalized i think it's seven percent of the portfolio since stage three now does it Does it need to get down to like a 2% to 3%? Is that a normal level where it's less of a drag on earnings?

Well, I mean, look, every percent is a drag on earnings, right? So we're around 20% on a historical, you know, we think we get back down to, you know, 2% to 5%, whatever that number is going to be. All of that is beneficial for us.

Yeah, I don't think the average would be 2%. I think the average would be 5% to 7%. if we went back and looked at it, and, again, we'll do that because I think it's a reasonable question. So Tracy's telling me it's seven. So I'm going to leave her. So, you know, that 13 points, you know, we expect that going from 20 to seven, like, you know, the vast majority of that should happen this year. And that – so just – as a soundbite, that comes back. It's going to free up at a normal leverage rate another $100 million to invest at our equity yield, which is sort of 11 to 12, which probably drops about, although it's been equal, about $5 million to net income. So I know that's a lot of sort of stats right there, but we can go through with you if you want. Yeah, of course, it definitely makes a difference. and you should expect it to happen.

That was perfect. That's sort of high-level how you're thinking about the business. That's exactly what I was asking. Thank you.

Okay. Thanks, Graham. Thanks, Graham.

The next call comes from James Goyen. James, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Okay. wanted to get an updated view of leverage, and where should we expect leverage to trend to? It's kind of right around that 50% mark. Is that something you can take higher, or is this where you're comfortable?

Hey, James, it's Tracy. I mean, we're generally comfortable with where our leverage is. It can tick us a little bit higher, but – generally we keep it at about the same point it is right now. I mean, highlighting that a lot of the stage two, stage three loans are under levered. So there will be some ability to kind of grow that on redeployment, but overall keeping leverage in general kind of where we are.

Okay. And so I guess the takeaway is that absent a resolution on stage right around the level of where the portfolio is going to – the portfolio size will stay here for a few quarters until resolution flows through. I guess that's the fair conclusion.

Yeah, yeah. And, I mean, there's always ways to continue the churn with our syndications as well, right? So you do – you are able to kind of grow that on the asset side without taking on the actual structural leverage. So there's ability there to continue to turn and earn fees on those.

Yeah.

But the growth is about static. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, and then with respect to the resolutions, specifically to the Vancouver property, is that something that would be sold on a whole basis or – I think you guys a couple of times have had, I'll say vendor take back loans or mortgages on some of these restructuring and resolutions. So, what's the likelihood that we see something along those lines and for the Vancouver loan specifically, but I guess for other loans outstanding?

That's a great question. And it really is case by case. I look at this project, so this is like, you know, a zoned development project, a significant one in Vancouver. And so I could very much see a scenario where, you know, my expectation would be this is probably a clean takeout. That said, you know, you put a strong borrower in that with a good business plan and there's an opportunity for VTB financing. you know, is it a current stage loan one and it makes sense for us, we look at it, you know, and it helps facilitate things. So, that's hard to predict. I think it's part of that asset management process where, you know, we like clean recycling. That, you know, that works well. But, you know, there's a loan opportunity that helps facilitate a deal and that we view that as accretive to the resolution of the stage loan. you know, there's enough cash in equity, a market rate that works for us, we would look at that as well. So I think we have to essentially take that on a case-by-case basis.

Yeah. Okay. Understood. And then... But the two resolutions this quarter are, I guess, like, based on firm sale prices in, like, that closed in Q2. You know, I guess, like, the concern or the thought that I'm thinking through is, you know, we have these other loans in, you know, stage two or stage three that are valued at, you know, X. And... you know, is this kind of like a scenario where, you know, look, there was a price that was close enough and you take it and you eat a little bit more of a loss than what you were anticipating just to get that recycling done? Is that, like, obviously, case by case, I get that, but, you know, that's kind of something I'm thinking through in terms of, you know, is there further potential for, you know, book value erosion as these loans resolve over the course of this year or next year?

Very good question. I can say this, right? We do our quarterly evaluations, you know, every quarter. So we try to be, you know, as on top of market as we can. I would sit there and say, though, it's a fair question to ask, right? Like if the right deal, these are market price transactions, right, and a challenging market in some cases. You know, Calgary office is a good example of a challenged environment. And we sit there and say, you know, when we have a loan that is not being levered through our financing facility, that is earning a subpar where you sit there and say, as a portfolio manager, right? Like you had to take a bit of a mark to move that asset and then be able to reinvest it. What's that payback period in book value, right? If it's X number of months, It may be a very logical and a smart move for us to do that. So what I can say to you, obviously, as you know, and you framed it yourself in your question, right, like it's a very tough thing for us to comment on. It's tough for us to predict. It is case by case. But I think that is part of that calculus that we evaluate, right? Like is that ability to – if I'm not taking a market, we felt it was a good price, and we feel good about our ability to redeploy that capital and have that be accretive in months, not years, you know, I think I would be an advocate for that in certain circumstances.

Yeah. Okay. Thanks very much. Thank you.

That's all the questions we have at this time. So I'll turn the call back to Blair Tamblyn for closing remarks.

Thanks, everyone. Appreciate your time as usual. We will continue to work away on the program as discussed and remain optimistic that the quarters ahead will be productive ones. We'll look forward to talking to you in 90 days. Have a good afternoon.