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TC Energy Corporation
5/1/2025
Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the TC Energy First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gavin Wiley, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much and good morning. I'd like to welcome you to TC Energy's 2025 first quarter conference call. Joining me are Francois Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, Sean O'Donnell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of our senior leadership team. Francois and Sean will begin today with some comments on our financial results and operational highlights. A copy of the slide presentation that will accompany their remarks is available on our website under the Investors section. Following their remarks, we'll take questions from the investment community. We ask that you limit yourself to two questions, and if you're a member of the media, please contact our media team. Today's remarks will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information, please see the reports filed by TC Energy with Canadian Securities Regulators and with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission. Finally, during the presentation, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP measures that provide additional information on TC Energy's operational and financial performance. However, these measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. A reconciliation of various GAAP and non-GAAP measures is contained in the appendix of the presentation. With that, I'll turn it over to Francois.
Thanks, Gavin, and good morning. Before we begin the formal presentation, On behalf of TC Energy, I offer my congratulations to the newly elected Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney. Canadians have never been more united in the belief that its abundant energy is key to economic sovereignty and prosperity. As matters of top priority, we urge the new government to grow the energy sector and establish a clear, predictable regulatory framework for timely infrastructure development approvals. The energy sector stands ready to collaborate with the new government on critical infrastructure projects that will benefit all Canadians. These investments will position Canada as a reliable global energy supplier while creating substantial economic benefits nationwide. By leveraging our continental expertise in natural gas and power generation, TC Energy stands ready to support North America's role as a trusted energy partner. Now turning to our first quarter results, and we are off to a strong start. We are proud to report that our safety incident rates continue to trend at five-year lows. Our resilient business model has continued to deliver strong results despite the volatility in the broader market, and we continue to see multiple drivers for future growth. In April, we filed Section 4 rate cases with FERC on both ANR, and Great Lakes to increase their respective maximum transportation rates. Additionally, we approved the US $0.9 billion Northwoods project to expand our ANR system. We continue to expect net capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $5.5 and $6 billion, and we remain on track to place $8.5 billion of assets into service this year. In aggregate, those projects are currently tracking to approximately 15% below budget. With ongoing strong EBITDA and capital expenditure performance, we are reaffirming our overall 2025 outlook that continues to enhance our financial strength and flexibility. The Southeast Gateway project is complete and ready for service. The project was completed in under three years from a final investment decision and was delivered 13% below our original budget, a monumental achievement. I would once again like to thank the Ministry of Energy, our customer the CFE, and our dedicated teams for their unwavering commitment to this project. The project is contracted until 2055 and once placed into service will represent a significant inflection point in our long-term cash flow profile. Our partner and customer, the CFE, has agreed to the contracted rate and accepted all requirements for in-service. We are just waiting on approval for our regulated rates from the National Energy Commission, or CNE, which only applies to interruptible service. Now, while 100% of our capacity is contracted with the CFE, and we have no requests for interruptible service, approval of the regulated rate is normal course prior to commencing service. The CNE has not expressed any material concerns or questions, and based on our conversations with the Ministry of Energy and the CNE, our expectation is to receive CNE approval by the end of May. Receipt of this approval is the final step to achieving in service on Southeast Gateway. We continue to have strong alignment with President Scheinbaum's Plan Mexico 2030 that aims to attract over US$270 billion in investments through public-private partnerships with a substantial focus on energy infrastructure. The Southeast Gateway Pipeline is a critical component of this plan. Looking at the map on the left, This plan includes 8.5 gigawatts of capacity from 14 new natural gas plants proposed by the CFE, of which 10 sit within our strategic corridors. Shifting to the U.S., we have been working towards a meaningful announcement relating to data centers for some time, and today we have sanctioned our Northwoods project. a US $900 million expansion of our ANR pipeline system. This 0.4 BCF per day expansion is expected to enter service in 2029 and will serve new gas-fired electric generation to support demand from data centers and economic development in the US Midwest. Importantly, the Northwards project is backed by a 20-year take-or-pay contract with an investment-grade utility, and achieves an estimated EBITDA build multiple of approximately six times. The map on the right highlights the repeatability of these Northwoods-type projects, which are low-risk and in-corridor growth, as seen on our ANR system. And I would extend this opportunity to other areas where we are seeing on Columbia and other assets across several different customer groups. This exemplifies the value of our footprint and our incumbency. The Bruce Power Major Component Replacement Program is the cornerstone of our strategy to enhance the reliability and availability of our nuclear assets. In April, we sanctioned the Unit 5 MCR following approval of its cost and schedule estimate from the ISO. This $1.1 billion investment in emissionless nuclear energy adds significant long-term value by extending the life of Unit 5 by over 35 years. And alongside the MCR program, our Project 2030 at Bruce aims to substantially boost its net peak output through the end of the decade and nearly double our equity income by 2035. Project 2030 is projected to increase Bruce Power's capacity from its 2019 base of 6.4 gigawatts to over 7 gigawatts through three stages in a cost-effective manner. And together, these programs are integral to our strategy of delivering long-lived value through disciplined investment. On this next chart, which you've seen before, illustrating our growth visibility through the end of the decade. Over the past six months, and including the Bruce Unit 5 MCR and the Northwoods project announcements today, we've successfully added approximately $4 billion of long-term contracted projects with compelling build multiples in the five to seven times range with no commodity price or volumetric risk. Given the strength of our origination pipeline, we have line of sight to an increased cadence of project announcements in the second half of this year and into 2026. These projects will predominantly have capital spend and in-service dates toward the end of the decade, which aligns with our financial capacity and further extends the duration of our growth portfolio. I will also add that of the recently sanctioned projects, a portion of the spend is in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to enhance our 2027 comparable EBITDA outlook, highlighting our ability to bring forward short cycle to cash projects. We are well positioned to deliver on our value proposition of solid growth, low risk, and repeatable performance. And now I'll turn the call over to Sean.
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