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TC Energy Corporation
11/6/2025
Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the TC Energy third quarter 2025 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gavin Wiley, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much and good morning. I'd like to welcome you to TC Energy's third quarter 2025 conference call. Joining me are Francois Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, Sean O'Donnell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tina Faraka, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Greg Grant, Executive Vice President and President, Power and Energy Solutions. Our agenda for today will start with Francois and our strategic update. Tina and Greg will walk you through our business in more detail, and we'll wrap up with Sean's quarterly update and financial outlook before moving to Q&A. A copy of the slide presentation is also available on our website under the Investors section. Following opening remarks, we'll take questions from the investment community. Please limit yourself to two questions, and if you're a member of the media, please contact our media team. Today's remarks will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information, please see the reports filed by TC Energy, with Canadian securities regulators, and with the US Securities Exchange Commission. Finally, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP measures that may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. A reconciliation of these measures is contained in the appendix of the presentation. With that, I'll turn the call to Francois.
Thanks, Gavin, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin by expressing my sincere appreciation for our team's unwavering commitment to safety and operational excellence. These are the cornerstones of how we operate and the reason we continue to deliver strong results quarter after quarter. I'm proud to report that our safety incident rates continue to trend at five-year lows. And through the first nine months of the year, comparable EBITDA has increased 8% year over year. We've successfully placed $8 billion of assets into service on schedule, and we're tracking approximately 15% under budget for those projects with 2025 in-service dates. Today, I'm also pleased to announce an additional $700 million in new growth projects at a weighted average build multiple of 5.9 times. This takes our total sanctioned projects up to $5.1 billion over the last 12 months, largely capitalizing on the extensive demand we're seeing for power generation and data centers. Driven by exceptional project execution and capital optimization, we now expect 2025 net capital expenditures to be at the low end of our $5.5 to $6 billion range. When you combine that with our expected growth in comparable EBITDA, we have clear line of sight to achieving our long-term target of 4.75 times debt to EBITDA, ensuring continued financial flexibility for future growth. These strong results continue to demonstrate that our focused strategy is delivering solid growth, low risk, and repeatable performance. Across North America, the policy environment is becoming increasingly supportive, enabling more timely and cost-effective delivery of our projects to further ensure our infrastructure projects can meet the unprecedented growth in demand. In Canada, recent developments are improving the regulatory environment for projects of national interest. This includes LNG Canada Phase 2, which is directly enabled by our coastal gas link pipeline. In the U.S., Recent actions to clarify NEPA's scope, accelerate agency review processes and implement FERC and Department of Energy permitting reforms are all supportive of streamlining the process and reducing delays, driving further demand for natural gas as a reliable, dispatchable power source. To be clear, this can be achieved without compromising core principles of safety, reliability and environmental protection. And in Mexico, the economy is poised for significant expansion, driven by strong fundamentals and President Scheinbaum's Plan Mexico 2030, which aims to attract over $270 billion in investment through public-private partnerships. By 2030, the Mexican government plans to bring 8 gigawatts of new installed natural gas capacity online, and our assets are strategically positioned to support this necessary build-out. So when you look across all three countries, policy tailwinds are enabling growth initiatives that reinforce the value of our incumbent network. Over the past 12 months, our natural gas forecast has been revised five BCF a day higher, now calling for 45 BCF a day increase in natural gas demand by 2035. This is driven by electrification, LNG exports, and the rapid expansion of data centers. Meeting the increase in demand, we've set 14 new natural gas pipeline flow records across our systems in 2025, further reflecting our focus on operational excellence. Looking beyond North American demand and driven largely by global electrification, we are the only operator capable of delivering natural gas to every major LNG export shoreline in Canada, the US, and Mexico. And today, As a result of that, we move approximately 30% of all feed gas bound for LNG export. Now, additionally, TC Energy is the only midstream peer with a significant interest in nuclear power generation. In Ontario, nuclear capacity requirements are expected to nearly triple by 2050, highlighting the long-term potential opportunity for Bruce Power and their power portfolio. As the outlook for natural gas and power demand continues to trend higher, TC Energy's extensive footprint is uniquely positioned to capture this growth. The robust fundamentals we're seeing in energy demand has generated over $5 billion in new, high-quality, executable projects that we have sanctioned over the last 12 months without moving up the risk curve. We remain focused on predominantly brownfield in corridor expansions that leverage our existing footprint, minimize execution risk, and are underpinned by long-term contracts with utility and investment grade customers. The three new projects announced today are prime examples of how our strategy is working. Strategically located along our network, these investments are directly responding to accelerating incremental load growth, especially from data centers and power generation demand. Looking ahead, we expect the steady cadence of similarly high-quality project announcements to continue into 2026, with attractive EBITDA build multiples in the five to seven times range, further demonstrating our disciplined, value-driven approach. This next chart highlights the consistent upward trend in returns from our sanctioned capital program since 2020, all without compromising contract duration, or taking on additional market risk. With the addition of the three new projects announced today, our sanctioned portfolio for the year now stands at an implied weighted average unlevered after-tax IRR of approximately 12.5%, a meaningful increase from 8.5% just a few years ago. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our disciplined approach to capital allocation ensuring that every dollar we invest is focused on maximizing returns and long-term value for our shareholders. Over the next decade, natural gas and electricity are expected to account for about 75% of the increase in final energy consumption, highlighting our role in the energy mix of the future. We believe our portfolio is one of one amongst our peers, and highly aligned with the fastest growing segments of the energy market. We are over 85% long haul natural gas pipelines, almost entirely take or pay or cost of service commercial frameworks. We're one of the largest operators of natural gas storage, providing our customers with integrated pipe and storage solutions, which is a key competitive advantage. And we have over 30 years in the power business across multiple fuel types, including our ownership in one of the world's largest operating nuclear facilities, Bruce Power. These assets, combined with our low-risk business model and the momentum from powerful market and policy tailwinds, position us to continue to capture accretive opportunities. After adjusting for company size, we are leading our peers in sanctioned natural gas and power capital opportunities, converting these into our project backlog that is further extending our growth visibility through the end of the decade and beyond. And with that, I'll turn it over to Tina to speak in more detail on this opportunity set.
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