Air New Zealand Limited

Welcome to the Air New Zealand 2026 interim results call. During the presentation, your phone lines will be placed on a listen-only mode until the Q&A session. Please refrain from asking questions until that time. And with that, I will turn the call over to Air New Zealand's Head of Investor Relations, Kim Coutts. Please go ahead.

Kia ora and good morning, everyone. Today's call is being recorded and will be accessible for future playback on our Investor Centre website, which you can find at www.enewzealand.co.nz forward slash Investor Centre. Also on the website, you can find our results presentation, interim report and market release, as well as other relevant disclosures. I would like to take a moment to remind you that our comments today will include certain forward-looking statements regarding our future expectations, which may differ from actual performance. We ask that you read through the disclaimer and in particular the forward-looking cautionary statement provided on slide two of the presentation. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that some of the 2025 comparative figures have been restated throughout the presentation to reflect the recognition of additional end-of-lease provisions. There is a reference to those changes in the supplementary section of the presentation. Within that section, we have also included slides that we will not specifically address during the webcast. These slides provide key financial and operational details, and we recommend that you take the time to review that information. Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer Nicole Ravishankar and Chief Financial Officer Richard Thompson. We'll also be joined by Leila Peters, our General Manager of Corporate Finance, for the Q&A session at the end. Before I hand things over to Nicol, I would like to take this opportunity to welcome him to his first Air New Zealand Investor Call. I know he is looking forward to meeting our investors and the analyst community in the coming weeks. With that, I will now turn the call over to Nicol.

Thank you, Kim. Kia ora and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on today's call. I'm both humbled and excited to lead Air New Zealand into the next chapter. This is an airline with an extraordinary history and an outsized role for our country, and I feel that responsibility very deeply. Before I talk about the numbers, I want to start where the airline starts, with our people. Thank you to all Air New Zealanders across the airline for the way you've kept showing up for our customers and for each other in very tough conditions. I also want to make a special mention of our cabin crew. I know this has been a difficult period, and I want to be clear, we are one team. How we work through challenging moments matters, and I'm committed to doing that with respect and fairness. As I've stepped into the role, I've spent a lot of time listening on the ramp, in cabins, at airports with engineers and planners, and with former CEOs of the airline. Two things have really stood out for me in those conversations. The strength of the foundations we have and the standard this airline has set over decades. And you can see those foundations on this slide. a strong safety culture, a loyal customer base supported by our Cora loyalty program, and a diverse global network and modern fleet. We also have a team of brilliant people who embrace innovation daily. And of course, we value the role of our strong balance sheet in providing resilience and giving us strategic flexibility. Those foundations give us real levers as we lift performance, and they also show up in the metrics. We carried 8.1 million passengers in the half. Customer satisfaction has held strong, and we were ranked second in the APAC region for on-time performance in 2025. At the same time, we're operating in an environment with some significant challenges. Capacity constraints, cost escalation, and a slower-than-expected recovery in domestic demand have created real pressures on financial performance. And our response can't be to wait and hope that conditions improve. We have to act, decisively and with discipline, on the things within our control. That's how I approached my first 100 days, and I've set five clear priorities for the team. First is safe, punctual, and world-class service for our customers. Reliability is not just a service metric, it's a cost metric and a revenue metric. A standout early outcome has been improved punctuality in our regional operations from the development of what we call our clean sheet schedule. This has led to a dramatic improvement in regional on-time performance, improving to 83.9% from 73.3%, up over 10 points. My second priority has been driving profit improvement while cutting non-essential costs. That's particularly important when you consider the high inflationary environment we're currently in, and I'll speak more about that shortly. The third is getting grounded aircraft back faster. Restoring scale is critical. It improves utilization, reduces the need for higher cost substitutes, and strengthens network economics. We're pleased with recent progress and now expect four grounded Airbus Neo and Boeing 787 aircraft to return to service throughout 2026. We also take delivery of two of ten new 787 aircraft later in the year, providing wide-body capacity growth of around 20% to 25% over the next two years. Fourth is sharpening our strategy and operating model. This includes the strategy review now underway. And fifth is strengthening our advocacy for a fair, affordable aviation system for New Zealand. A meaningful element of the cost pressure we're seeing is structural within the domestic system and we'll continue to engage constructively with airports and regulators because connectivity and affordability matter. Work is underway across all five priorities and we're starting to see momentum. Turning to the result, we reported a loss before tax of $59 million and a net loss after tax of $40 million. That is not where we want to be and reflects a very challenging operating environment. The drivers of this are relatively straightforward and I don't think will come as a huge surprise to anyone here. Global engine maintenance disruptions continue to constrain our fleet. While capacity was broadly flat in the half, we are still only operating at around 90% of pre-COVID capacity, almost four years on, and have up to eight aircraft grounded at times. As you've heard before, when you run a subscale network, the economics deteriorate quickly. You lose utilization, you carry more disruption costs, and you end up doing things you wouldn't choose to do in a normal operating environment. We did receive 55 million of compensation in the half related to the engine issues. Even after taking that into account, our internal estimate is that we missed at least 90 million of earnings, net of compensation, that the business would have made if our fleet had operated as intended. We've also seen meaningful cost inflation across the aviation system this half alone, especially in mandated domestic passenger levies and landing charges, as well as engineering materials. This has been amplified by a weaker New Zealand dollar. Domestic demand has recovered more slowly than we expected, particularly across business purpose travel, which has weighed on mix and yield. Given the result, the board has made the prudent decision not to declare an interim dividend consistent with our capital management framework. Now, alongside managing the near term, we've also been progressing a company-wide strategy review since last year because the environment has changed. We're operating with less scale, higher aviation system costs, and more disruption risk. And we all know this isn't a business where you pull one lever and everything moves. It's a complex system, more like steering a supertanker than a speedboat, and profit improvement comes from coordinated changes across reliability, scale, and cost discipline. At the same time, there are areas of real traction, and those matter because they show what this airline can deliver when constraints ease and when we execute the basics well. Customer satisfaction is at 84, reflecting investments we have made in the HART product, including the 787 retrofit program, as well as food and beverage, in-flight entertainment, and operational reliability, which I've touched on already. Near and dear to me is the refresh of our loyalty program, including the launch of Coral Black. This is the beginning of a series of benefits that we will be rolling out to our loyalty members. With over 5.2 million Coral members, our loyalty program is a strategic platform for future growth and value. Turning to slide 7 on revenue, the story is nuanced. International demand continues to hold up well, particularly offshore and bound. Premium cabins continue to be a genuine bright spot, with premium cabin revenue growing 10% compared to economy cabin growth at 2%. Ancillary revenues continue to perform well, growing 10% compared to last year. That's encouraging because we see premium as a structural opportunity for us. It's where we can differentiate and where customers will pay for value if we get the proposition right. At the same time, domestic demand has recovered more slowly than we expected, but we are starting to see early signs that it is recovering. A weaker New Zealand dollar continues to have an impact on New Zealand outbound travel to the US. Conversely, it is helpful for US inbound demand. We continue to see good outbound demand for travel into Southeast Asia and Japan, which is pleasing. Slide 8 speaks to the operational constraint that sits underneath a lot of what you're seeing in the numbers. At times... Up to eight aircraft were grounded, and as I've noted, when that happens, you don't just lose capacity, you also lose efficiency. You end up carrying costs you wouldn't normally carry, and the network becomes harder to run with consistency and reliability. Looking forward, our aircraft availability assumptions remain fluid. At present, we expect a slight improvement in the second half versus the first half, but we still anticipate up to three A321neos and up to four 787s may be grounded at times. We've taken a pragmatic approach. We've used wet leases to protect schedule integrity. We've carried significantly more spare engines than normal, around 20 when we would only typically need four. And we've redesigned the schedule to prioritize reliability, even where that means temporarily stepping back from some growth we had planned. We've also invested heavily in resiliency measures, such as our automatic passenger rebooking toolbox, to ensure that when things go wrong, we can address them quickly and efficiently. These actions keep our customers moving, but they come at a significant but temporary cost. But I want to be transparent about the recovery curve here. We are starting to see signs of progress, improved engine shop capacity and throughput, as well as new fan blade certification that extends time on wing. Compared to what we noted in August, I would say we are cautiously optimistic, but the improvement will be patchy and non-linear. Improvements in aircraft availability are unlikely to translate immediately into earnings uplift, as capacity, particularly wide-body capacity, cannot be operationalized into the schedule and sold at short notice. The primary constraint is uncertainty in aircraft and engine return timing, which limits our ability to plan and sell additional flying with confidence. On top of this, once the engines are returned, their ability to get compensation from the OEMs declines, even though we can't operationalize or commercialize that capacity immediately. Disruption-related costs and inefficiencies also take time to unwind, including the return of leased aircraft and engines. And importantly, we don't plan on hope. We will plan on what we can observe and what we can deliver reliably for our customers. As we get aircraft back into service, we'll accelerate where the evidence supports it. Again, I want to acknowledge our people here. This kind of operating environment is tough, and the effort required to keep the airline running reliably under these constraints is significant. Alongside engines, the other dominant theme is non-fuel cost inflation. And importantly, it's not just a first-half issue. In the first half, we saw around 75 million or around 3.5% of non-fuel cost inflation, driven mainly by mandated passenger levies, engineering and maintenance, and landing charges. On its own, that number might not look out of line. The problem is the compounding effect. These costs have been stepping up for several years, and the base we're carrying today is materially higher than it was pre-COVID. Since 2019, the increases are significant. Landing charges, as an example, are up 64% across all airports and around 85% across domestic airports. Engineering materials are up 45% and you can see a few other examples on the slide. Over the same period, New Zealand CPI is up around 29%. So aviation system inflation is running significantly ahead of the broader economy in categories that are fundamental to running an airline. That's why we view a meaningful portion of this as structural, not temporary. And in a domestic market that has been slower to recover, our ability to pass on these increases through fares is constrained. So our response has three parts. First, we have to keep pushing transformation and productivity because controllable cost per passenger matters more than ever in this environment. Second, we need sharper commercial execution to lift yields where the market will bear it, and we're continuing to build the proposition in places like premium and loyalty. And third, we will actively advocate for settings that support a fair and affordable aviation system. Despite the headwinds, we've made meaningful progress operationally for our customers. The clearest example of these improvements is regional on-time performance, which I've already spoken to. That matters because reliability reduces disruption costs, improves customer confidence, and supports demand. We're applying the same discipline to the JET network. Schedule integrity first, then capacity growth when we can do it reliably. What I will touch on here is our transformation program. We've delivered around $45 million in benefits for the half, $145 million since the program started. But I want to be candid. Much of that is being absorbed by the rate of cost inflation. That doesn't mean the program isn't working. It means we need more of it, faster, and we need the aviation system settings to be fit for purpose. Finally, on resilience, liquidity at the end of the half was $1.3 billion within our target liquidity range. Net debt to EBITDA is 2.6 times. We're focused on executing earnings recovery while prudently managing capital investment as aircraft return to service. So my message is this. We're executing on the basics, we're being realistic about the near term, and we're taking the steps needed to restore profitability and build resilience. With that, I will hand over to Richard to discuss the financials in more depth.

Thank you, Nicol. Turning to slide 12 and some of the key financial outcomes from the half year, as Nicol said, this has been a challenging period for us, but one that we signalled several months ago. Despite seeing passenger revenue growth of 3.6%, the headwinds from engine availability issues and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to hurt the bottom line as network growth remained flat, making us unable to absorb increased costs through additional scale. The loss before taxation of $59 million came in slightly below our guidance range. That was due to fuel price, which was a headwind. As crack spreads rose sharply in late October and later moderated alongside Brent crude, this resulted in average fuel price of US$88 per barrel versus the US$85 a barrel that we based our guidance on. As a result of a net loss after taxation of $40 million, we've not declared an interim dividend, which is in line with our capital management policy of paying dividends based on a trailing 12-month net profit after tax. I will touch on liquidity and our leverage in a bit, so let's move on now to slide 13. Ongoing engine availability issues continue to have a widespread impact on the cost base of the airline. That includes sub-optimal aircraft deployment, loss of productivity, disruption management costs, and wider network flow-on effects. While challenging to isolate all these effects, we've estimated the combined direct and indirect impact for the first half of at least $90 million net of compensation. In terms of compensation, we've received $55 million from engine manufacturers, which was $39 million less than the compensation received in the prior corresponding period. That $55 million equates to about one-third of the financial impact of these issues. Turning now to slide 14, we have our profit waterfall, and I'll touch on a few areas that deserve a bit more colour. First, revenue for the period is up $42 million, due mainly to vast improvements across our long-haul and short-haul international networks, alongside a marginal increase in capacity. This includes unused customer credit breakage of $11 million, In addition, cargo revenue was adversely affected by increased freighter competition and mixed changes towards more trans-shipment activity, both of which contributed to lower load factors and yields. There is more detail on cargo in the supplementary section of the slide pack. Then, other income has been more than offset by less compensation received than the prior corresponding period. You may recall that the last annual result I referenced that approximately $30 million of compensation received then was related to other periods. Moving on, we saw significant increases in maintenance, aircraft operations and passenger services costs, which were primarily caused by price inflation as well as the timing of lifecycle engine costs. Labour grew 3% or about $26 million. We have been increasing our pilot onboarding in preparation for the new 787 deliveries later this financial year, and there is some near-term cost and efficiency related to that ramp-up. Foreign exchange has been a drag on earnings, with the New Zealand dollar about 2 cents or 3% weaker than the US dollar compared to the prior period. Then I'll just touch on the share of associate earnings, which is the Christchurch Engine Centre, our joint venture with Pratt & Whitney. Prior year issues with supply chain had led to constraints with overhaul capacity. Those issues have alleviated a bit now, and we are seeing the benefit of that come through. It's also worth mentioning that the expansion of that facility to cater to geared turbofan overhauls is well underway, with expected completion by the end of the 2026 calendar year. Stepping back and looking at the overall movement in the period, approximately $75 million, or about 35% of the net movement in the result, is directly attributable to price inflation, most of this from aviation system costs. That has only been partially offset by the benefits of our transformation initiatives, which contributed approximately $45 million of benefits in the half. Moving now to cask on slide 15. I won't spend much time on this as the trends and drivers have already been discussed. But reported cask increased by 7.7% in the period, excluding the impact of fuel price and foreign exchange. Underlying cask increased by 5.7%. The ongoing costs of the engine availability issues, combined with a reduced network footprint, are negatively impacting both the numerator and the denominator of the CASC measures. And as a reminder, much of the compensation received does not help CASC, as for the most part it is recorded in other revenue and income, rather than as an offset against costs. Adjusting for the impact of engine availability issues, our estimates are that cask for the period would have been approximately 3% better if not for the diseconomies and inefficiencies at play. We expect underlying cask to remain under pressure until we get our more efficient aircraft back in the air flying and regrow the network. This is likely to begin in 2027. Turning to slide 16 now, which provides an update on our fuel and FX position. For details on the first half fuel cost and relative performance compared to the prior period, you can refer to our supplementary slides. We are 83% hedged for the second half of the financial year and about 46% hedged for the first half of the 2027 financial year. We primarily hedge fuel using Brent crude, meaning that our fuel costs remain exposed to volatility in the crack spread between crude and jet fuel prices. That spread has been quite volatile over the first half, ranging between $17 and $30, as geopolitical events have impacted refinery capacity around the world. As such, we restructured some of our January and February hedge book to jet fuel swaps, with an average price of around $80 a barrel. Geopolitical and policy risk remains high over major oil-producing countries, oil transit routes and sanctioned oil. This means ongoing volatility and uncertainty over oil prices and refining margins that may impact our fuel costs, and we've seen that in the past week or so, an elevated level on both Brent and Crack spreads. Our hedge book is currently structured as collars with an average ceiling of around US$67. And as you can see from the fuel sensitivity chart on the bottom right of the slide, there is room for some downside participation. We regularly look to restructure our hedge book to adjust the profile where appropriate. Also on the slide, we have provided our current estimate of fuel costs, which assume an average jet fuel price of US$85 per barrel, again noting that prices this week are a bit higher than that. Based on this, we have provided our current estimate of fuel costs in the second half, which range from around $730 million to $750 million, based on varying volume consumption. Included in the assumed full-year fuel costs are our expected SAF and emissions trading scheme costs and Corsair obligations, which total around 40 to 45 million New Zealand dollars in combination. Touching briefly on foreign exchange again, The US dollar is our largest foreign exposure, mainly due to fuel bill expenses and some of our engineering services and materials costs. We cover our US dollar cost base by selling our New Zealand dollars and other respective currencies into US dollars. Like fuel, we hedge our net foreign operating exposures on a declining wedge basis. US dollars and Aussie dollars are hedged respectively at 77% and 88% for the second half of this year, at a rate of just over 59 cents and 89 cents respectively. Turning now to slide 17 and an update on our aircraft CapEx profile. As noted in earlier results presentations, the 2026 and 2027 financial years see a significant concentration of aircraft-related CapEx with the long-awaited delivery of the first new GE-powered 787s. Delivery of the first two aircraft is expected in April and June this year, with entry into service shortly thereafter. These will be 787-9 variants with a premium heavy layout that includes 94 business class and premium economy seats, broadly the same as our 777-300 fleet. We will be debt financing those two aircraft and are in the final stages of a very competitive RFP process that we expect to deliver attractive funding costs. The chart reflects our current assumptions on the timing of new aircraft deliveries and the phasing of retrofit programs. There may be further shifts in this profile as we align with Boeing on their production expectations, but those conversations remain ongoing. Moving on to our existing Rolls-Royce powered 787 fleet, as Nicol already touched on, the retrofit program is well underway, with half of those aircraft now complete. We expect the program to be finished in full by the end of calendar 2026. The total forecast aircraft capex is approximately $3.4 billion New Zealand dollars through to 2031, although that amount assumes an exchange rate of 60 cents against the US dollar, and that has been moving around. We ended the first half back within our liquidity target range of $1.2 to $1.5 billion. This has been actively managed down over the last couple of years. Since the end of financial year 23, we've repaid approximately $1.4 billion of debt in aircraft leases, including the voluntary early prepayment of some aircraft loans. Over the same 18-month period, we also raised just over $500 million of new cash funding through the sale and leaseback transaction of four A320 aircraft in December 2024, as well as the $300 million Aussie medium-term note we issued in the first half of this financial year. Liquidity has been supported by the release of cash collateral as a result of transitioning to a new global payments provider, of which we have received $125 million in the first half. That collateral has now been fully returned to us. After tracking sideways since December 23, the first half saw our net debt increase as our CAPEX program kicked into gear. Spend during the half included pre-delivery payments for upcoming aircraft, engine overhauls, plus the 787 retrofit program. While this CapEx ramp-up has been long expected, it has coincided with a deterioration in EBITDA performance, so the resulting net increase in net debt over EBITDA has been higher than we would have liked. We remain committed to our capital management framework and are focused on returning to the target leverage range. Liquidity has performed slightly better than expectations through January and February, and the airline continues to assess its funding needs over the coming 6 to 12 months beyond the 787 financing I just mentioned. We were very pleased with our return to the Australian medium-term note market in September last year, which will deliver ongoing interest cost savings versus the existing notes that will be repaid this upcoming May. In summary, our balance sheet remains well positioned to withstand the combination of elevated capex alongside the temporary earnings pressure we're facing from the engine issues. That said, our focus is very much on returning our earnings to a sustainable level, and Nicol will touch a little on that before we open things up for questions.

Thanks, Richard. I want to dwell on slide 20, which outlines our expected capacity growth for the second half and full year of 2026. It is self-explanatory. Turning to slide 21, if I step back, the second half, and really FY26 overall, remains challenging because several moving parts have to line up at the same time. On the revenue side, we're planning for some capacity lift in the second half, around 3-4%, but that is conditional. It depends on improved engine reliability across the A321neo and 787 fleets, and the delivery of the GE-powered 787 at the very end of the financial year. So the way we're thinking about capacity is practical. We will grow where we can do it reliably, and we won't put volume into the system that we can't operate with confidence. Domestic demand recovery has been slower than expected. However, in recent weeks, we've seen early signs of improvement in business purpose travel, which is encouraging. Leisure demand remains mixed. We are closely monitoring our revenue management and capacity settings as this evolves. Internationally, we do expect pressure as we move into the New Zealand winter. Inbound visitor mix typically slows, and outbound demand to certain markets is still being held back by the weaker New Zealand dollar. So we are planning conservatively on long-haul yields, particularly through the winter period. A further nuance on the top line is that other revenue and income includes the majority of OEM compensation. And while we've received compensation in the first half, a portion of second half compensation remains under negotiation. So there is still uncertainty there. On costs, the challenge is that inflation is not easing fast enough. We're expecting full-year non-fuel cost inflation to be higher by around $150 to $175 million, with the biggest increases in maintenance driven by supply chain constraints, passenger services including mandated domestic passenger levies, and aircraft operations through landing charges. Those are not easy costs to avoid in the short term, particularly when the network is operating below scale. And on top of that, we expect lifecycle maintenance expense to be a material headwind of around 80 to 100 million. Most of that is related to the 787 and A320 fleets, but we also have some GE90 engine shop visits contributing to this, which powers our 777 fleet. Against those headwinds, transformation remains an important offset. We're expecting 100 to 120 million of transformation benefits for the full year, with about 45 million of that delivered in the first half. But I want to be clear, those benefits are being absorbed by the scale of inflation and the inefficiencies created by fleet constraints. That's why our focus is not only on delivering transformation, but on restoring scale and reliability so the economics of the network normalise. Putting that all together and turning to slide 22 and our outlook for the full year, Based on current trading conditions and assuming an average jet fuel price of $85 per barrel USD for the second half, Air New Zealand expects second half earnings to be broadly in line with or modestly below the first half. The outlook remains subject to material uncertainty, including engine return schedules, the timing and quantum of compensation, and continued volatility across key input costs and demand conditions. Compensation arrangements in respect of certain engines are yet to be agreed for the second half. Air New Zealand is in active negotiations with the relevant manufacturers. While the airline is working hard towards a fair outcome, as mentioned, the timing and quantum of further compensation remains uncertain, and this could materially impact full-year earnings. Finally, on the strategy review, all I will say at this time is that work is underway and we will share it with you at the appropriate time. And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your question, please press star 11 again. If you are a speaker phone, please pick up the headset to ask your question. Just a moment for our first question, please. First question comes from the lines of Andy Bowie from Force of Bar. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator, and good morning, guys. Maybe if I just start off with picking up on your last comment there, Nicol, with regards to the strategy review. I recognise you used something along the lines of the words of, all I'll say is this, but could you give us a sense of its nature, scope and timing? i.e. when are we likely to hear more and when will we see potentially the benefits of this accruing?

Hi, Andy. Good morning. The review is as fulsome as you would expect it to be. So focus of the review extends to network shape, where we fly, our fleet deployment, new revenue opportunities and accelerating our cost transformation agenda. And then, of course, how our capital management framework features. So we're looking across the airline, and we're making great progress, actually. Next week, we engage about 4,000 or 5,000 of our staff to get involved in that process, and we take it through all of the expected board cycles, and then we'll look to lock it down post that process. We have spent, as you know, the last few years focused on rebuilding out of COVID and then dealing with these engine issues. And so those things have meant we've had to bake in some inefficiencies just by the very nature of the cards that we've been dealt. The focus really of this business review is to ensure that we can now change tack and focus on particularly as scale comes back and we can start to think about growth finally, what is a future fit in New Zealand going to look like? And also focused on ripping out some of those inefficiencies that have been baked in. That recovery path is neither going to be – there isn't either a silver bullet or is going to be quick recovery. but we're all committed to, A, building the plan and then executing it.

Great. Thank you. Next question is just around engine compensation for the second half. I recognise you're still in negotiations with the manufacturers, but can we just clarify what you incorporated into your guidance for the second half stroke, the full year in the context of, I guess, the benchmark being in line with or below the first half result?

Hi Andy, morning, Richard here. We're assuming in the second half roughly the same level of comp that we've got in the first half at this stage, but some of that remains subject to ongoing negotiation with the two OEMs.

Yeah, so the risk, I guess then from a guidance point of view, the risk is in terms of being below or worse than the first half comes from less airline compensation, no credit breakage and other things impacting demand. Yeah, that's right.

I think the only thing I'd add to that and the drag in the second half that we didn't anticipate but is in the guidance is the strike action that we went through a week or two ago, which is a $9 million, $10 million drag on the half.

Great. Then final question for me, just looking at the balance sheet, gearing is now above the top end of the target range. I look ahead to the $3.4 billion of CapEx over the next five years which is front end loaded and contemplate gearing getting worse before it gets better. I guess the question here has two parts. Firstly, what are you and the board comfortable with in terms of gearing beyond the target band? What are the levers you'd pull initially if you were trending towards being in that uncomfortable type range, recognising that you talk about managing capital investment prudently?

Yeah, that's a good question, Andy. So the aircraft capex in this financial year is actually at its highest. We're just over a billion dollars of aircraft capex. I was going to say that moderates next year. It's 950, 975 next year, so it's still a big number. I think what we're doing, it's a balancing act. On the one hand, scale matters in this business, as you well know, and so capacity growth is hugely important to us in rebuilding earnings and ensuring that we can protect our market positions as we manage our way out of this. On the other side of that coin, obviously we do need to manage the balance sheet. We've got a... significant level of unencumbered aircraft, so we've got plenty of borrowing capacity should we choose to use it. But we are looking at a range of possible outcomes. At the moment, we are expecting slight delays in the manner of months on the third, fourth and fifth 787 delivery, which may straddle financial years yet. And we are making this investment we've talked about before of $150-odd million in the 777-300 fleet. to ensure that we don't need to retire that fleet early and it remains competitive out until the early 2030s. So we've got a bit of flexibility around the fleet plan to manage the CapEx profile. But I agree with you, we probably ended up just at the top of the range a little earlier than we'd anticipated through a combination of the work we're doing on the strategy refresh, ensuring that we can rebuild earnings and the flexibility that we've got in the fleet plan. I think we can manage our way through it successfully.

Great, thanks, Richard. Thanks, Nicole.

Thank you. Just a moment for our next question, please. Next, we have Marcus Curley from UBS. Please go ahead.

Morning, team. Firstly, I think you made the comment during the presentation that the return of the engines were broadly consistent with what you said back in the sort of full year result. So as a result, I suppose at that time you were talking to quite a significant progressive increase in seat capacity in FY27, FY28. Are those estimates still fairly accurate?

It was Marcus, wasn't it? Hi, Marcus. They are fairly accurate. Maybe I should sort of adjust your remark in that I think the engine position today is slightly better than what we thought it was going to be at the end of last financial year.

Hi, Mark. This is Layla. That's correct. That was in the August announcement and results presentation. That was just at the beginning of the, pardon me, the blade certification for the Rolls-Royce engine. and still just waiting to see some improvement in the Pratt & Whitney throughput. As Nicol mentioned in his prepared remarks and just now, what we're saying is we're seeing a little bit better improvement in the second half of this year, which will also help flow on into the 2027 financial year. But the increases in capacity across the network over the next two years will be helped by the combination of the engines returning a little bit

faster than we thought in august and as richard discussed the phased delivery of the new ge787s okay so thank you and on that basis you wouldn't be expecting any significant level of engine compensation in fy27 and and hence it's obviously a bridging year in terms of profitability.

I think that's a good way of characterising it. Marcus, and we've alluded to it in the notes, the engines will come back. At that point, the compensation will stop. And depending how reliable the OEM's estimates of when those aircraft will be back in action are, there'll be a slight lead-lag effect between the compensation stopping and us taking full advantage of having those aeroplanes back in the system. because to keep customers or keep the service reliable for customers, we have to plan on the conservative side of putting them back in the schedule. Okay.

And then when you think, again, you know, into, let's say, 27 and 28, you know, and those aircraft being available, you know, and you look at, you know, the current opportunities within the international market, say... Do you still feel comfortable that they'll deliver a significant improvement in profitability for the business?

Yes, absolutely. They will. So just to put the whole thing in context, based on the current fleet and growth recovery plan, we get back to FY19 levels of capacity by FY28. And we're suffering, as you well know, from scale diseconomies currently. So anything we can get back in the system, I think, will be very helpful for earnings recovery. But to pick up on your earlier point, it's not going to be a linear path to full recovery because the comp will stop, sometimes in instances where the flying's not programmed back into the system.

Okay. And then just the final question from me, really with regard to potential cost out as a part of the restructuring program. How difficult do you think that's going to be to achieve? Obviously, we've seen the cabin crew strike over the course of the last few months. It's just maybe some context in terms of the challenges ahead to execute what you think you might need to deliver in terms of cost out.

I think cost out programs, as you know, are difficult at the best of times and will be difficult here given the complexity of the business. That said, our KMO program is delivering to plan. So we've had $145 million of ongoing improvements that we've seen in the business, and that's real. But what the strategy review, the business review that's currently underway is doing is looking at what else would we need to look at. We know there are areas where we do need to increase our focus, so engineering and maintenance being one of them. But there are other areas that are within our control that we'll be looking at. But equally, there is significant cost inflation in areas where we don't control And that's why you will see us continuing to advocate for a more fairer and sustainable aviation system for New Zealand.

Marcus, Richard here. Just a couple of other things to add to that very briefly. So we've talked about scale mattering, capacity growth. I think we've had a big price shock this year, which has been sort of well covered. particularly around aviation system costs in New Zealand. So we had those very big step-ups in the CAA and AVSEC charges, which, sort of in combination, are $45 million, $50 million this year, incremental. Our expectation is that we won't see increases like that again next year. Our CAA, for instance, was a 145% increase. So I don't think you'd expect to see that every year. On maintenance costs, back to that fleet sort of issue we were talking about before, and we've alluded to it in the communications, is we do have some lifecycle maintenance costs currently on the 787 fleet, which is now sort of 10, 12 years old, and hit D checks and sort of cyclic limits. So we'll expect to see that come down over the next couple of years. So thrust reverses this year, 787D checks in the next couple of years, and then we'll retire all of the costs of these engine-related issues in sort of 28, 29. That will help. Nicholls talked about the TMO benefits, 145 million cumulatively so far. We're looking at another 115 next year, so that'll be 260 cumulative. We need more than that, looking to improve on that. And that is obviously the focus of the strategic review that Nicholls alluded to. Landing charges, probably the last one, and that is not going away. So our concern with landing charges, particularly at Auckland, is the trajectory of those charges, and we'll be up against PSE 5, the next pricing consultation over the next 12 months, and any increases, and we're expecting to see increases, would kick in from 1 July 2027, I think it is. So that particular issue is still one that concerns us.

Sure. OK, thank you.

Thank you. We have a question from Nick Ma. Unfortunately, he cannot make it today. So this is his question. In FY25, the comparable PPT of $340 to $380 million, while in 1st H26 has fallen to $20 to $40 million, and H2 outlook appears similarly challenging given PPT outlook. How does AIR expect to restore the comparable PPT run rate to deliver on ROIC targets as fleets return? Thank you.

Hi, Nick. On behalf of the operator, Richard here again. I think I'll probably just repeat the comments I've made in response to Mark's question. It is a combination of capacity growth, which we'll see plenty of in the next couple of years, although we get back to FY19 levels of cap by FY28. We will see, with the exception of Auckland landing charges, putting those aside, we expect to see fewer price shocks in the New Zealand aviation system. We will see a reduction in some of these lifecycle maintenance costs. Our focus is on making sure we maximise the benefits of the existing KMO programme, and all the things we'll look to supplement that with through the strategic review.

Thank you. I see no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Nikhil for closing remarks.

Thank you again for joining us today. I appreciate you listening in and for your support of Air New Zealand. If you would like to schedule a call or a meeting for any follow-up questions, please direct those requests through to Kim Coutts and our investor relations team. Thank you again.