Elders Limited

Thank you very much and we might start the presentation on slide 3. So welcome to all for the Elders full year results presentation for the FOI 22 year and thank you for joining Paul and myself for this session today. Paul is highly experienced with Elders, a number of you have met Paul previously and is Group Treasurer and Acting CFO. From an Elders' view, this is the second year of our third eight-point plan. The Elders' philosophy since the first eight-point plan has been to control what we can control and not to dwell on what we can't control. To have a capital and cost structure to allow us to make good returns in bad years and make great returns in good years, and that's what we've experienced. The FY22 results are an example of great returns in good market conditions. We use our multiple diversifications by product, service, geography, crop segment, commercial model and channel to market and our financial discipline to deliver consistent and high returns for our shareholders and stakeholders. In summary, we aim to control what we control. Over the past two years of our third 8.1 plan, we've experienced strong market conditions across most production enterprises and geographies. Although this is coincided with the climate impacts, particularly unseasonal flooding, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty. We've also had positive livestock prices, winter crop and summer crop conditions with more recent unseasonal rainfall. In this context, the performance of Elders with its clear and consistent strategy, multiple diversifications, high financial discipline, hard-working and committed team and enduring customer anchor as the most trusted brand in Australian agriculture, the result is quite outstanding. For Elders, the result is good in safety, strong in sustainability, profit, strong in return on capital and strong in strategic delivery. Our commitment is to provide 5% to 10% growth in EBIT and earnings per share at a minimum of 15% return on capital in a sustainable manner through a safe and inclusive workplace. Over the last five years, we've had a 33% growth across that period at 26% return on capital, 26.2% that we finished off on this year. So the results today are a continuation of our strong delivery of this commitment. We've much achieved and much more to achieve into the future. On a final note of introduction, we've also announced that I'll retire from my role of Managing Director and CEO in 12 months from today. This will see the completion of the final year of the current APON plan, the completion of three highly successful APON plans and 10 years in the leadership of Elders as Chair, Executive Chair and the CEO. From the viewpoint of myself and the Board, the timing is right and this will allow for a leadership refresh and smooth transition to Elders' next phase of growth. The focus of today, however, is our FY22 annual results, and the approach for today is that I'll provide an overview of the results, Paul will go to the detail of our financial performance, and I'll then provide an update on our outlook and growth initiatives during the final year of our third Bitcoin plan. So if we go to slide four, as I provide the overview, and the first slide really addresses all of our key stakeholders, starting with the people, and you can see the TRIFA at 12.6. And I think the critical point here is the 10% reduction over the last five years, although a total that are recordable injuries. From an employee engagement viewpoint, it's 79%. Just to put this in context, because we've had a very, very strong engagement enablement over many years, but that 79% compares with the Australian normal of companies of 65%, and the highest performing companies at 73%. So a very, very strong position. When we look at our customers, the stakeholder pillar, you can see the most trusted brand, number one most trusted brand, again, for the third year in a row, and net promoter score of 49. And again, just to put some context, so 49 compares with the NAB of minus one. It also compares with Medibank prior to the hacking at $45 and then a company such as Woolworths at $49 equivalent to where Elders is. From a community viewpoint, the regional rural communities are the core DNA of Elders and have been for 183 years. So you can see very strong contribution through donations and sponsorship. A thousand plus local community sports teams have been sponsored and also supporting key initiatives like the Royal Flying Doctors and Beyond Blue within regional rural communities. And at a shareholder level, we continue to have a very strong result. We'll go into the detail of this, but we're sitting with our growth rate at 33% over the last five years and finishing this year at 26.2% as a return on capital. Moving to the next slide on financial summary and just to highlight a couple of key points. You can see the underlying EBIT at 232 at the top end of the range that we communicated earlier in the year at 39%. growth on the previous year. Return on capital at 26.2% so very strong in a difficult market in terms of price inflation and cost inflation and cash conversion which as a team we think is quite acceptable given the backdrop and scenario confronted with in the market at 75%. Leverage at 1.2 times and as I mentioned Paul will to break down each of those components in great detail. Looking at the next slide on safety, health and wellbeing, you can see the lost time injuries at six and it's quite interesting because when we look under the data, we've had a journey from the first April plan where we had 33 lost time injuries and we got it down to two. And just having a look at the data and what's happening, this year with six lost time injuries, five of those six lost time injuries have been contributed from acquisitions or bolt-on acquisitions, so smaller or larger acquisitions. And so it's really something as a management team that we're looking very closely into in terms of the safety culture integration of our acquired businesses to ensure that the great work that we've done across the elders networks is also passed on and contributed in a similar way to the Voltron acquisitions. I mentioned the total recordable injury frequency trend over the last five years and also much more proactive expenditure on safety initiatives throughout the business. Looking to the next slide on sustainability. We published our principles and our climate targets over the last couple of years with our sustainability report. And you can see our achievements. We're making good progress across a number of areas. I would note on the net zero state one and two emissions where there's an increase. And this is really reflecting our additional people. our acquisitions and additional fleet etc. that's driving that. In terms of the achievements across on the right hand side, pretty much on track. We plan to ramp that up further in terms of our initiatives as stated through the sustainability report. But I think the final point there with the 41,000 plus drums that have been recycled, a great achievement and also from from my viewpoint being a signature to the original Drummaster Agreement many years ago, very, very good to see those initiatives still giving great outcomes in terms of recycling of ag chemicals. So I'd like now to pass on to Paul and Paul will move on to slide 9 to run through the financial results. Thanks Paul.

Thanks Mark. I'll commence on slide 9 of the pack which displays trend analysis from FY18 which is the first year of the second day point plan and demonstrates the momentum that currently exists within our business. Firstly, sales have increased to $3.45 billion in FY22 at a five-year compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 21%. Underlying EBIT has increased to $232 million at a five-year CAGR of 32.6%. Costs have increased to $421 million at a five-year CAGR of 10.7%. But importantly, cost to earn has decreased over the five years from 79% to 64%. Earnings per share was stable year-on-year due to the inclusion of company tax expense in underlying NPAT in FY22. If we adjust for this impact, five-year CAGR is 25%. The macro thematic for FY22 provided more tailwinds and headwinds, with area planted for both summer and winter crops similar to prior year but above historic averages. Cattle prices were up year on year, although the financial benefit was partially offset by a decline in volumes due to restocking. Fertiliser and ag chem prices increased significantly in FY22, but were successfully passed through the supply chain. I note the wet start to spring delayed some client activity in Q4, which resulted in Q4 EBIT in FY22 declining $8 million year on year. In summary, conditions in FY22 were favourable and the outlook remained so, but the year wasn't without its challenges. I'll now move to slide 10, which contrasts FY22 against prior corresponding periods. Looking at the numbers, sales revenue increased $896 million, up 35% year on year, with rural products contributing 91% of that growth. As a result, gross margin increased $123 million to $652.7 million, up 23% year on year. Gross margin per cent decreased 1.9 per cent due primarily to the increased ratio of low margin fertiliser in the total sales mix as well as a slight reduction in agency and real estate commissions. Underlying EBIT increased 65.6 million up 39 per cent and following 38 per cent growth in FY21, both well above our target range of 5 to 10 per cent growth through the cycles. Underlying MPAT increased $1.1 million to $152.2 million, with company tax expense recognised as underlying from October 1, 2021, complicating the prior year comparison. Operating cash flow was $113.7 million, with a cash conversion of 75.7%, which was down year on year due to the working capital investment required to fund growth. Approximately 53% of growth in FY22 came from acquisitions and organic initiatives both within elders control with approximately 47% of growth coming from market drivers as Mark will speak to later in the presentation. Moving now to slide 11 to discuss gross margin drivers where pleasingly all product categories increase their contribution in FY22. FY22 gross margin totalled $652.7 million, up 23% year-on-year. The top four product categories contributed 70% of total gross margin, with all showing growth. Within the retail business, Agchem contributed $172.9 million, up 32.9%. Agency, $147 million, up 4%, despite lower volumes due to restocking. Wholesale contributed $73.1 million, up 19.4%, and real estate $66.1 million, up 21.5%. Product categories showing the most percentage growth include other retail, which grew 82.3%, assisted by the SunFam acquisition, and fertiliser, which grew 52.8%, placing downward pressure on gross margin per cent, given the comparatively low margins. Moving to slide 12 now, it shows our geographic diversification, which is a key defence against regional variability. Slide 12 shows geographic contribution to EBIT that excludes the wholesale business and also excludes corporate overheads. Pleasingly, all states grew double digits in FY22 with exceptional growth achieved in Queensland and the NT up 60% and assisted by the SunFam acquisition. New South Wales is up 53.7% and South Australia up 37.4%. I'll move now to slide 13 to discuss product categories, another pillar of Elder's diversified business model. Growth was achieved across all product categories in FY22 with 90% of growth coming from rural products and real estate. Within rural products, retail had an exceptional year, increasing gross margins by 87.7 million or 39%. Key drivers included the Titan Backwoods integration which added $15.1 million additional gross margin, AgChem increased $43 million and Fertilizer an additional $20 million. Both supported by an expanded selling network, acquisitions and favourable seasonal conditions. Wholesale products increased gross margin by 11.9 million or 19% from acquisition of the expansion of the air network and favourable seasonal condition. Real estate services increased gross margin by 10.9 million or 21% with key drivers including broad acre sales up 54% year on year and residential up 21%. Properties under management increased 20% year on year supported by acquisitions. Agency, financial services and feed and processing all contributed growth as well year on year. I'll move now to slide 14 to discuss costs, which we're watching closely given our focus on cost and capital efficiency. Cost grew $57.7 million, up 15.9% to support business growth as well as efficiency projects such as Sysmod and supply chain optimisation. Pleasingly, cost to earn reduced from 69% to 64% year-on-year. In terms of key drivers, people contributed an additional $26.2 million in 2022. of which $1.5 million relates to increased performance incentives. Breaking this down, the Elders Branch Network added 118 FTE to service more clients. Corporate added 58 FTE to support business growth as well as our strategic efficiency projects. Acquisitions accounted for an additional $18.4 million in cost, with 13 acquisitions completed in FY22, adding an additional $115 FTE. Other significant contributors include vehicles, fuel depreciation and also a significant investment in our cyber defence capability. I'll move now to slide 15 to discuss capital efficiency, which is at the centre of Elder's business model. Return on capital increased from 22.5% to 26.2% in FY22, increasing the three-year average to 22.2%, which is well above our hurdle rate of 15. The key drivers include EBIT growth of 39% alongside a reduction in average working capital days. The reduction in average working capital days was supported by a focused procurement management, especially in Q3, and deferred debtors comprising a lower percentage of the total debtor book. I'll now move to slide 16 in cash flow where we see operating cash flow fell 28.5 million or 20% year on year resulting in a reduction in cash conversion of 19%. The key driver of this outcome was the investment in working capital required to fund the 40% growth in retail products. given the net 53 working capital days in this business which required an investment of approximately $125 million. The target cash conversion for FY23 remains at greater than 90% of the underlying impact. We'll now move to slide 17 where we see net debt as a balance date increased $68 million to fund business growth. Notwithstanding, leverage fell from 1.4 to 1.2 times. which remains below Elders' target of 1.5 to 2 times. Balance sheet strength combined with significant undrawn bank facilities and covenant headroom provides flexibility for Elders to pursue growth opportunities in FY23 and beyond. Turning to slide 18 now, I note the final dividend of $0.28 per share has been declared, taking total FY22 dividends to $0.56, 30% franked and up 33% year-on-year. The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 58% from 43% in FY21 and near the top of the policy range of 40% to 60% of underlying NPAT. Underlying EPS was 97.3 cents in FY22 with prior year comparison complicated by the inclusion of company tax expense in underlying MPAT as noted previously. EPS would have been 134.1 cents up 38.7% on a comparative basis to FY21. On to slide 19 now to provide an update on our deferred tax assets. As disclosed last year and noted throughout the presentation, Elders now recognises all tax expense against all underlying earnings, notwithstanding deferred tax assets from historical tax losses are yet to be exhausted. The deferred tax asset balance decreased by $60 million in FY22 leaving a carried forward balance of $50 million into FY23. Elders forecast that all deferred tax assets will be fully utilised by FY24. This concludes the financial section of the presentation. I'll now pass back to Mark who will discuss our growth aspirations as well as the market outlook.

Okay, thanks Paul. And we'll move now to slide 21. And I thought we'd kick off this section just by recapping the ambitions and strategic priorities and enables of the eight point plan. So we look at our ambition as we've mentioned compelling shareholder returns, 5% through the cycles at 15% plus as we've mentioned. The CAGR for EBIT is 33% over the last five years and we've landed this year at 26.2% for return on capital. industry leading sustainability outcomes and we've made great progress but I really feel that we're at the point of stepping off our sustainability work to the next level as we bring in a new executive general manager in the area and we also provide even greater focus with a dedicated board committee around sustainability and safety. pretty exciting to continue on the great progress we've made and most trusted agribusiness brand three years in a row we've held this position and coming from a long way back in the early days and it's a great inspiration to all of us that we've seen in that light and we want to maintain that position. When we look at these strategic priorities and we'll talk to a little bit more detail around firstly winning market share across product services geographies and you can see the progress to this point on that capturing more gross margin in rural products and we've been driving our backward integration strategy as many of you are aware. both through the Elders retail business and the AIR wholesale business with brand segmentation strategies across both businesses with backward integration. Optimising our feed and processing business A great combination of investments both in efficiency in Collara in particular and that provide efficiency, strong financial outcomes and also great sustainability outcomes with the investment in our pivot irrigation, the solar panels, the efficiency that we're adding into our milling process and the improvements across animal welfare. with bedding and shading that have been put in place. So some great work there and developing a sustainability program that's authentic and industry-leading. And I think this is the critical point for us. Authenticity, again, is core DNA. It has been for many years. And getting real outcomes for the industry that also benefit elders is critical for us. Our enablers, systems modernisation, many of you again have been aware of our program of modernisation that has been moving along quite nicely and we'll talk about that shortly. Attracting, retaining and developing the best people and providing a safe and inclusive working environment, again a critical enabler for us and particularly when we look at accessing a broader labour pool through regional rural Australia with all the constraints on labour that we've seen across many industries. And then finally the unfinished financial discipline and this really simple concept in agriculture that you diversify significantly across multiple aspects of your business as we've done and reset your cost and capital base so that you make good money in bad seasons and this has been reflected in the last eight point plan years of performance and delivery. So moving to page 22, and I'll just pick a few of these to comment on rather than going line by line. In terms of winning market share, 13 acquisitions that we've seen through the business, and we'll talk a little bit more around that and the universe of acquisitions later on. And also across, that's largely across the retail business, but also some great initiatives across the wholesale business with the establishment of the distribution center in Westbury in Tasmania, which will continue to underpin both the elders branch network in Tasmania and also the air member, independent member network in Tasmania. We're also, we've done some refurbs on some of the air facilities. but also in Brisbane and Tamworth and we're also putting a new facility in Wagga or upgraded facility and we're looking in central Queensland in the same way. Going through the capturing more gross margin, again, the expansion of our pipeline with 10 new Titan products launched, and remembering that the active ingredients that go into Titan A crop protection products are also cut and pasted across to the apparent crop protection products that are sold through the air wholesale networks. So some good product development and the targets there are products that are coming off patent or formulations that are coming off patent and our first preference is always to make an arrangement with the original discoverer or producer of the crop protection product. If we're unable to do that then we'll do it ourselves through our formulation technology and sourcing our banks of ingredients. Looking at the expanding our service offerings, the announcement from earlier in the year for $25 million investment in automated wool handling, I'll talk to shortly, but a great initiative and an investment in regional rural Australian agriculture that has not been made before and clearly again talking about the DNA of Elders Wool is core DNA. Going through other products in the product offerings with the financial service products and some good success around the livestock in transit delivery warranty. that we put in place a few years ago. Our feed and processing business, I've already spoken to a few of the great initiatives that the team have put together with the feedlot and we've also taken the decision to close the Elders Find Food business in China and that's currently in the process of being closed down. It was significantly hit with the Shanghai lockdowns where it has a very strong base of food service, restaurant and hotel business, and so we took the decision early in the year to close that business. Sustainability progress I've made comment on already, assistance modernisation I'll talk to you shortly, but we're really moving along now with going live with Workday in February, and largely we're on track across those areas of the business. People and safety, I've spoken quite a bit about that and also the cost and capital efficiency that we've talked to and Paul has also spoken to. So moving to slide 23 and slide 23 looks at the attracting and retaining the best people and you can see a fleet or a gaggle of agronomists, I'm not sure, but 200 agronomists that we've now got in the business. And with very strong feed to service component of that where we don't necessarily recommend the product but we are paid for the advice that we provide. So that really underpins our innovation strategy both at Thomas Helder Institute and Thomas Helder Consulting. When we look at the engagement of movement, and I mentioned at the beginning of the presentation that the context is really important, because you look at the numbers and say, well, flat engagement around 76, 78, 79. But then when you see it in the context of the average Australian normal engagement being at 65, and the highest performing companies being at 73, you can see the strength of the elders' culture and why we've had such strong alignment to the eight point plan implementation and the disciplines that we've put in place. And I think it's something to really reflect on when we look at post the third eight point plan and how deeply embedded the financial disciplines the business case approach, the processing systems that we put in place over the three airborne plans that are now deeply embedded and part of the culture of Elders as we go forward to our next growth period. When we look at enablement, again you see 77, 76, 79, 82. And again, referencing in the context of the broader industry, Australian norm is at 67%, so elders at 82, and the highest performing companies in Australia at 73. So again, a worthy note when you look post the third AECON plan, the deep embeddedness of the disciplines that we've driven through the AECON plan across financial, social, values, systems processes and how critical that is to Elders as we go through our next growth phase. When we look at the diversity numbers on gender, you can see the area, the bottom left pie, women in leadership positions, we have made great progress from 5% at the start of the Act On Plans up to 17%, we're close to 20%. But we've got a lot of work to do here and I think everyone in the business knows that. But one of the interesting insights is that we have actually been diluting our diversity numbers with our Volcom acquisitions, which are largely male workforces and not having women in leadership roles in the businesses that we're buying. Having said that, we're still highly committed to improving this significantly in line with some of the other areas when we look at the slice and pies. Okay, so moving to slide 24 and the growth opportunities, and quite high level. I think everyone's aware of our of our straps and where we drive our bolt-ons back with integration, organic growth, et cetera. But just slicing it a different way, firstly in brand optimization. It's part of the diversification, but as it is, we've got retail brands with elders, we've got product brands, we've got the service brands, and we use brand segmentation quite significantly within the business, either to hang other products under the Elders brand, like an Arnott's approach where it's an umbrella brand, or alternatively to have dedicated product brands like a Tim Tam brand under the Arnott's umbrella. So we have Titan Ag, crop protection, parent crop protection, pastoral ag, animal health, independent owned animal health, et cetera, and seed brands, et cetera, in order to drive greater share of the wallet, rather than trying to get dominant share under the Ellens brand, the brand segmentation approach is a much more successful approach. In terms of branch optimization, we talked about the additional branches that we've added to the network, but I think, again, with our approach across all the business for many years, it's quite methodical and quite practical. To give a great example with Deloraine in Tasmania, It was a, we did have a lot of customers coming into Launceston that was coming from that area. So then we put a very small pilot shed in Deloraine. It turned out to be very successful. We were able to increase their service levels and now we're building a brand new state of the art branch to service those clients. So that sort of step by step approach, making sure that we're client centric, we give them what they want and this has been the approach we've taken across Australia, so the Tasmanian example is just one example. Strengthening our service offerings, I talked to in the last slide, and driving our innovation, and we've appointed a new EGM strategy, Sustainable Innovation, and our sense is that we're at a stage in regional rural Australian agriculture where we can achieve sustainability and productivity and profitability outcomes all at the same time, rather than having to go backwards from a commercial viewpoint to go forward from a sustainability viewpoint. So we're very excited that we're joining the business in January in that vein, and as I said, looking for a real step up now from great progress that we had made previously. So the next slide in 25, we're looking at, you know, the question that's raised, you know, are you running out of bolt-on acquisition opportunities and do you still have gaps? And I think the answer is that there are many, many, a very large universe of opportunities. The right-hand slide you saw at the half-year result, just identifying for the independents, whether they're an independent associated with the air, or with CRT or pure independence through other groups. There are many, many opportunities for bolt-on acquisitions. I think it's worth noting This year, of the Bolton acquisitions, we developed 57 financial models on potential acquisitions. I guess we would have been approached by probably 80 or more, and we developed 57 financial models. We issued 27 non-bonding indicative offers, which is the next part of the supply chain in acquisitions. We completed 13 acquisitions, EBIT for the year at $4.2 million and annualized at $8.5. with four post-implementation reviews, just to ensure that we have the discipline of what went right and what went wrong. And I mentioned earlier the safety integration component that we've identified with some of the bulletins. So our sense is that the universe is still large, there's still great opportunities, and it allows us to make the right decisions for the right reasons, because there are many options to choose from. When we look at slide 26, Just looking at the long-term, what's happened with acquisition growth versus tight and backward integration and the underlying business, I think just to take a little time, and I'm sure you'll get a chance to take a little time to look at this slide because it actually tells a really important story and confirms our philosophy of controlling what you can control. So if you look at the base business over this period since FY16 to FY22, there has been growth. And it's been steady growth and there's no doubt the base business would have ticked along. But the big uptick, in fact, the Bolton acquisitions and the backward integration strategy by FY22 is contributing 33% of the total portfolio. So I think it just reaffirms what we said We control it, we control it. Weather goes up and down, rain falls, rain doesn't fall, commodity prices swing around, but the reality is that you can have consistent high return growth in agricultural businesses by controlling what you control. There's a slide later on in the presentation, the last slide actually, that shows that in a very clear manner by highlighting the environmental impacts. and the constant growth of Elders through that period. Elders Wool Handling on 27 announced earlier in the year. We're moving along nicely and this project, all the machineries arriving in February, the automation and machinery, the sites are being put together now. I think the one issue on this is that, apart from the upside in reinvestment in the wool industry, one issue that we've been working through is the increase of building materials. And that's reflected against the business case. But even having said that, our feeling is that we're largely on track. We're running an external project assurance assessment from now through to January next year, just to make sure that everything is completely under control. But it is a great initiative for elders to be part of. On the systems modernisation program, page 26, you'll recall on the right-hand side that we broke the program up into multiple waves that run from FY21 through to FY25. And the idea here was that in line with control and what we control, we didn't want to be locked into a runaway train and not be able to stop or think and reflect and assess. So we're doing it very methodically, low pulse rate, wave by wave. We're doing the people foundation, internal financial and people foundation. So we started at wave zero, we're now at wave one. We've worked a coming into place in February. We've narrowed the cost estimates from plus or minus 20% to plus or minus 10% and still on track, exactly where we were at the beginning. And we've also allocated a split, the broad split of CapEx versus OpEx for the project. And Paul can talk in detail to this. if anyone would like to in the question session, but the rough split is 60-40 capex, opex. And I think Paul also mentioned earlier, and we have been spending, not surprisingly, even though our systems are older systems, we have been spending quite a bit of time on our cybersecurity with data security and privacy issues. project, cloud application infrastructure security project and a cyber resilience project. I guess one of the interesting points from us and we've had simulated cyber sessions where someone takes over the system and basically what we're seeing unfold in the newspapers, we've had those simulations internally and oddly our old systems and non-integrated systems across a few areas of business actually do provide a little protection at the moment because it's not all fully integrated. Having said that, we take it very, very seriously and we've made significant investment to ensure that we have that resilience and security, particularly around privacy, that we need. So moving on to the market outlook, and from a market outlook viewpoint, slide 30, and this is the update of the half-year slide on the split of where the upside gross margin comes from. So we've used the same assumptions. and allocations as we did in the half year, so we've got consistency in terms of acquisitions, organic growth and market. But as Paul very quickly pointed out, this is more art and assumption than hardcore numbers, but it really does take the picture. You can see the allocations down the right-hand side and the basis of it, and we're happy to discuss and debate that. But at half-year, we were sitting at 42% of our upside coming out of the market, and 58% out of acquisitions and organic growth. And by the full year, it's up to 47%, which I don't think is too surprising. It really is. We did hold back our backward integration due to our desire not to be caught with high-price-owned stock. And so we did limit the backward integration once we got to May. And also the market continued to tick along. I think the question in terms of outlook that comes from this is what does this mean for the FY23 year? Have we peaked? Is it as good as it gets? And I think our sense is that we, the outcome plan talks about 5% to 10% through the cycles, growth through the cycles. So we hold to that assessment. Clearly to match last year will be a massive challenge for the business, but we really are targeting maintaining our position of 5-10% through the cycles. When we look at that particular slide in slide 30, if you go to the market part, which is the 46 million of rural product gross margin, when we look at that, and it's really the nuance that is not fully understood, if 20 million of that 46 is summer crop, it's moved from a below average to an average summer crop in that year, and so holding the average We don't lose the 20 million. Having said that, until the excessive rainfall, the summer crop is likely to be way above average. So we'll see how it all washes out part of the pond in terms of replanting of cotton and the windows for planting. So on the winter crop, the winter crop, the 26 component there, it's from average to above average. And so that's really, when we look at it, controlling what we control. That's the gap that we're looking to fill as we go for the next 12 months. With that, just very simplistically, and we can take questions on it. Very simplistically, the bolt-ons are down the order of 10 million annualised, backlit agration in the order of 8 million. and organic growth that we've been having is in the order of 8 million, what we can control and what we can do does theoretically give us the opportunity to fill the gaps, the seasonal gaps, if indeed the winter crop for next year goes back to average. And we've got the ABN number from September which says says that it won't quite go back to average but that's up for debate and we'll see the new AB numbers out in December. So going to the next slide, market outlook, I think just to note the indicators there, I mean everyone has access, but I think importantly on the next slide is the implications from our viewpoint and you can see the impact on wet weather. Probably worth spending a little bit of time around that because wet weather impact at this time of the year can damage winter crop, which we've seen in areas of New South Wales and Victoria. The implications of downgraded winter crop don't hit elders this year. They hit elders the following year from a cash flow viewpoint for the farmers. But having said that, because our producers have had reasonable seasons in the last couple of years, the thinking is that it may not be a significant impact on cash availability, particularly if commodity prices remain high as are. The implications for summer crop is that we've had washout, washout of sorghum, planted sorghum crops, early planted sorghum crops and cotton and the impact on that will depend on how we go. If La Nina does start to move away and we go back to dry conditions, in which case they'll be planting, replacement planting, given all the dams are full and all the profiles are full and there will be absolutely a lot of very weedy fallow paddocks around the east coast. So I think the implications, difficult to determine. Our question, and when we apply it to livestock as well, our question is, has it moved? It has been slower as we've gone through the the first August, September, October period with the wet conditions in the east. Has it just moved? Has it gone? Or will it actually be bigger and stronger given that the soil profiles are very full for winter crop next year and there'll be weedy paddocks everywhere? So I think as we go through all the others, I guess the key point to us is around this financial discipline as we see what happens with the market impacts of the weather conditions. So the final slide then before we go to questions. If you look at the historical performance versus weather and world events from the first 8.1 plan and you can see all the way through and even with multiple issues occurring, the diversification strategy, multiple diversification strategy, return on capital, portfolio management strategy and high financial discipline. Even in the worst drought in 100 years in the East, we were still flat or slightly up on growth. And then for the FY20, FY21, FY22 period, now we're looking at a set of numbers today with 39% growth, and that seems just incredible. And it's a credit to the... to the elders' people in what they've been able to do. But then you look back, last year was actually 38% growth on the previous year, and the year before was 64% growth on the previous year. And so this, in terms of, you know, it rains and we have a good season, the slide actually emphasises very significantly that, you know, the 5% to 10% growth, we've been hitting the CAGR at 33%, and the 15% ROC target at 26.2 and controlling what we can control. So with that, I think we'll go to question time and open up the questions.

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star 2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Philip Pepe from Shaw and Partners. Please go ahead.

Hi, Mark and Paul. Thanks for taking your question. It looked well done on a solid result despite the share price move. Just on the outlook, when you suggested FY22 difficult to replicate, did you mean the growth, the 39% growth, or did you mean the actual 232 mil EBIT? Like, are you still aiming for 5% to 10% increase in the dollars this year?

So I think the 39% growth may be difficult to replicate. In terms of the number of 232, our plan is to continue to drive this 5-10% growth through the cycles. and at greater than 15%. And so we look at that number, we look at what might not be there next year in terms of things we can't control, like the wind crop that I mentioned, and we say, okay, well, we've got a number of other initiatives we do control, like backward integration, organic growth, and the balkan acquisitions, so let's drive hard to try to match the number or beat the number and do our best. And that's our thinking on it.

I understand. And secondly, I guess, a question on everyone's mind, I guess, in terms of the timing of your resignation or retirement, clearly conditions have peaked, so we'll take that as a given. But in terms of, that was a joke, by the way, in terms of succession planning, though, I mean, you came across some West farmers that had a heavily return on capital focus and that drove down from the MD all the way through the company, and it seems to me like you've instilled that of elders. In terms of what happens in 12 months time, are there many internal candidates that could put their hand up for the job and how deep in the business is the eight point plan understood and realistically what are the material changes that may or may not occur in 12 months time once you leave?

Thanks Phil, and thanks for the as-good-as-it-gets comment. I'd expect nothing less. So I think this philosophy is deeply embedded because we go three down, maybe four down in the organisation, and it's across everything. It's reflected in simple business cases, the business case approach for every decision, informal cowboy calls as it used to be many years ago in Elders. So I think it's deeply embedded and it's a core part of the strategy. I think by the half year we should be in a position, so for the May half year results, I think it would be good. I mean we can't guarantee it, it'll depend on a few issues. But it would be nice to have a glimpse of the new strategy going forward so everyone can have comfort that the financial discipline and the core components of what we've been doing are captured. I think the other point to note is with our systems modernisation project, it actually puts us in a much greater position of enablement. for technology and digital online activity and integration of all of our systems to further service our clients. And actually, it sets the strategy up probably for, when you look at the APON plan, it's kind of an operational strategy. It's pretty 101 and about, you know, revenue being higher than cost and cost to earn reducing etc. So I think we now have an opportunity to have a much more sophisticated and more strongly controlled strategy going forward with the systems modernisation. In terms of internals, we've got a few internals. Tom Russo has just been appointed the EGM of the network, and I think many of you know Tom. He has done a wonderful job in multiple roles, most recently in real estate. So we've got really good continuity across a core part of the business. We have Peter Lowry as the Chief Operating Officer of AIR. I think in terms of the thinking, and the board obviously runs the process, for selection of a new CEO, and they're well and truly onto it. The idea is to have a broader number of candidates, internal, external, and to get the best person to take elders to the next level.

Excellent. Thank you. Well done.

Thanks, Will.

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Pobucky from Macquarie Group. Please go ahead.

Morning, Mark and Paul. Congratulations on a good day. FY22 and Mark, congratulations on a very successful 10 years of leadership at Elders as well. Just first question, in terms of supply chains and inventory levels, can you talk to those two and how have you managed the risk of margin squeeze with commodity prices coming off to some extent?

Yeah, thanks David. I'll field that one. I think firstly in terms of supply chains, we have had to procure a little earlier, particularly for winter crop through Titan Ag and that has put some pressure on working capital, particularly in the first half of the year, which you will have seen in operating cash flow. It's less pronounced as we move through the year. in terms of inventory procurement in Q3 this year, just to slow it down, to basically right-size it at that point in the year. So we've managed it that way. Looking forward, we do see some easing in both cost and pressure in supply chains, but it'll follow a similar path in FY23 to ensure that we have the goods that The second part of the question in regards to passing on costs, what we have seen, if we look at where the cost has increased the most, we can see fertilizer in terms of pricing up about 80%. That is linked to the price of gas and therefore to the situation in Ukraine. But on the other side of that, what we've seen in the sector is higher wheat and barley prices. the industry, the supply chain has been able to absorb those costs. They're two sides of the same coin, if you like. So at this stage, We haven't seen pressure on margins and I think as well I'd say in terms of balance sheet capacity for the sector, we've had two to three really good seasons. You can see that in farm management deposits, which are now up around $6 billion and up 10% year on year. There's great capacity out there to absorb this.

Thanks, Paul. And one more, if I may, a step up in corporate costs in the year. Do you expect a further increase in FY23 off the back of, you know, continual investment in people and strategic initiatives, etc.? ?

Yes, I think that there will be. We're just having a look at the cost base now and I'll confirm that cost and capital efficiency is close to the top of the list for us behind return on capital. But we do expect certainly there to be support costs as we implement SysMOS and that will move around the business as various parts of that project get implemented.

Thanks very much.

Thank you. Your next question comes from James Ferrier from Wilson's. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Mark and Paul. Thanks very much for your time this morning. Could I first of all ask about seasonal finance? I think going back a year or so ago, you started introducing some of that funding on balance sheet as far as livestock was concerned. Can you just clarify where that's at now?

Yeah, so we've had a little bit of growth through livestock under 100K. I think the average balance through the year was around $17 million. It did drop off towards the end of the year, but yeah, fairly stable and consistent growth there.

Thanks, Paul. And then with respect to crop inputs and the opportunity to offer extended terms there to customers, And obviously you're funding that on balance sheet. How does Elders manage that in terms of either at a store level or is it centralised credit? And how do the economics flow back to Elders as far as allocating that margin, the extra margin that you'd no doubt achieve in offering extended terms? Does that get booked back into retail products or is it into financial services or elsewhere? And what size would that book be now, a crop input seasonal finance book?

Yeah, good questions James. Firstly, just in order, so those extended terms are subject to a rigorous credit review process, so that is centralised within the Adelaide head office. In terms of margin, that does get captured within Cost of Goods Sold, so often the funding charge is just blended into the sale of those products. Sometimes it's levied separately as interest, but either way it lands in the same place above the line. And the final question there?

Just the size of the book, Paul.

I can tell you that the size of the book is a proportion of the total debtor book has declined year on year. I don't have the actual size of the deferred book in front of me but I would say as well that we classify anything that is non-standard terms as deferred so that can be relatively short term extensions that are beyond 30 days in a month, so that that number doesn't really provide much information in terms of the longer dated elements of that pool.

Okay, that's helpful. Second question's around fertiliser. And I might be misreading this, but slide 36 shows fertiliser volumes of about a million tonnes. And the same slide, in last year's full year presentation showed um about 980 or 978 000 tons i think it was so am i right in saying that fertilizer volumes are up two percent year on year yep and gross margin up 53 percent year on year from that two percent volume growth

I'm not sure about the gross margin, but on a broader share issue, fertiliser is one of the areas where we've increased market share, so particularly in eastern Australia. The issue we had with fertiliser margins is because it's a dollar margin in the west with an increasing revenue, there was significant dilution of margin out of just the absolute calculation.

Yeah, thanks, Mark. And that's sort of where I wanted to follow up on was I'm just curious, because it's been a couple of years since that structure on the West Coast changed. Of that million tonnes you're doing, what's the rough split between the East and West Coast?

Gee, I'd be guessing it might be 20%. I'd be guessing probably 15% to 20%. It may not even be that high.

Yeah, okay.

Do you want a closer number?

Yeah, that would be helpful if you could and thanks very much for your time.

Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Piers Flanagan from Baron Joey. Please go ahead.

Morning Mark and Paul. Thanks for your time this morning. Just a couple from me if I could. Maybe just firstly on the backwards integration, obviously sort of good penetration. over this year. Can I just talk through some of the underlying categories where you've seen sort of the growth between animal health and AgChem?

Yeah, I think this year was a little different because I think I've mentioned that we actually slowed it because we didn't want to get caught with our own products so we used third party supplies towards the end of the season with the price increases or cost increases. So I think the way to think about it is the animal health is progressing, but it's not the most material part of it. So just focusing on crop protection, we started at, of our total portfolio, it's only the off-pattern products, off-pattern at an active ingredient level and off-pattern at a formulation level. So there's no surfactant patterns or mixing patterns or formulation patterns. With that, we believe we can get to 70, the end game is to get to 70% of that addressable portfolio that is all off pattern. And the thinking there is that we wanted to leave 30% because the proprietary or the multinational supplies have generic products as well as new technology, new proprietary products, and so we want to give ourselves room to be able to, if we need to bundle some generics in order to get proprietories, that we still have room to do that. We started at 25% of that addressable portfolio a few years ago, took it to 35, and this year we're looking to get to 50, and I think we've pulled 45 or 46, something like that, and with the idea that we'll continue to develop it for FY23 and possibly, we may not get to 70% until the year after, but we're largely on track. We did hold it back this year though, so that we didn't get caught with the owned Titan product with high cost.

Sure, and then Paul, just on your comment, and maybe I misheard this, but did you say Q4 EBIT was down about $8 million year-on-year?

Yes, that's correct.

Yeah, and some of the key drivers behind that?

So key drivers were, I suppose, certainly livestock. So availability of feed is very advantageous to putting on more weight. So we saw a very different livestock season. That's continued to today with the unseasonal wet conditions. And I think in terms of the other key driver, so summer crop was a little earlier last year than this year, you know, once again, you know, due to the conditions.

Great. And then just a final one just on M&A, and I think you said you looked at sort of close to 60 and approached by sort of over 80. Maybe just how you've seen expectations, sort of vendor, multiple expectations out there in the market at the moment following a couple of good, you know, broader industry years.

Yeah, so you'll recall that we were targeting three to five times multiple EBIT with the template that we use, with the earn out split, et cetera, et cetera. What we're seeing is that there are a couple of larger ones that we've been looking at. So if they're like 300 grand EBIT or 500 grand EBIT, you may be in that realm. But larger ones, whether it's five or six or seven million even, we have seen the multiples move up. So it's six, 6.5, et cetera. So probably not surprising, but we have seen that tension.

Great. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Paul.

Thanks. And James, on your question around WAFIRT, my guess was within KUI, I think about 250,000 tonnes. I think we're pretty close to the end because we've got a back-to-back coming up. Sorry, back to the moderator.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Richard Barwick from CLSA. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. I've got a question just trying to sort of disentangle a little bit around some of your longer-term targets. So you've You said that you're holding to the assessment of the five to 10% growth through the cycle. Where's your sort of definition here of through the cycle? I'm just trying to think. I mean, you're so far ahead of that target and yet you're sticking to that as a target. So how do we even begin to think about that as a, where's your baseline? Do we think about a 10% CAGR too? I was trying to hope for a little bit of clarity.

Yeah, so the five to 10% through the cycles, you may recall was based on a survey we did of our key investors and fund managers, et cetera. And the thinking was, for an ag company, if it's above 15% internal capital and through the cycles you drain it 5% to 10%, that's a good outcome. And so that's embedded in the April plan and the way we think, and that's what we've stuck to. In terms of saying, hey, it's going to be 1.2% up on last year or 5% down on last year, I mean, that's for you guys and ladies to work out and to assess yourself. I mean, from our viewpoint, we're very focused on growth. And internally, as I indicated with the breakup of the gaps that we've identified on this last year's performance for next year from a seasonal viewpoint, we've got initiatives in place where we control what we control and we'll do our best to continue to grow with that commitment to five to ten percent through the cycles. So it doesn't answer your question, but I guess that's why you're paying the big bucks.

If only that was true. All right, then I guess another sort of point of clarification, then Mark, I think you said at some point that if the winter crop, so the FY23 crop was sort of back to an average, you've got enough within your control to offset that. So I understand that component of the narrative, but then you've got the other moving parties around the summer crop. So is it fair to say that the movements in the summer crop sort of sit outside that commentary? So winter crop, if it's back to normal, you can sort of compensate for that. But if there's some negative moves around the summer crop, then that would be an additional negative to consider.

Yeah, I think that's right. And it's not just cropping, it's livestock, it's eki, it's all the aspects that are outside our control. But my comment on summer crop would be that it went from below average to average and the outlook is above average. So we're assuming average, not above average. So the question is, does the overly wet conditions that have occurred in October and early November, does that change the outlook of cotton in particular from above average back to average? I'm not sure. We'll go with the ABARE forecast. My gut feel is that it'll still be very, very strong.

Yeah, okay. And then the last one for me is really around some of your bolt-on acquisitions and really part of that is part of your branch optimization. Do you, I guess there's two questions here. When you think about branch optimization, how do you balance up your corporate outlets with wholesale members? I mean, do you hold back or you don't really factor in moving into the territory of some of your wholesale members if you see there's an opportunity for a corporate outlet? I guess part and parcel of that question is when you're thinking about your bolt-on acquisitions, do you have a preference for some of your wholesale members or would you actually have a preference for an unrelated out there.

Yeah, well, when we're doing the business cases on wholesale members, we've got to back out the profit we already make from them. So it makes the hurdle much higher for them. But the way to think about it is that we, if we've got three air members that are in the pipeline, the way, through our business development committee, and this is the point of embedded systems and processes, what we do is to say, okay, is that particular member, is that better as a red branch? or as a wholesale branch, and the wholesale network has its own, Ayr has its own retail network as well. So we actually decide, and then when we buy it, it's converted into whatever we decide. So in terms of preference, it's all around brand segmentation. So in a town, if we've got 20% share, The general rule is that we can throw everything at it and we probably might get to 21% share, but if in that same town we've got an heir member, we can get up to 30% share through getting the margin from wholesaling to that member, and the customer's got choice of two options or three options or four options. So for real services, it is, you know, 40 years later from my experience, it is the way to increase your share of wallet in any town, is to have multiple segmentations. I think the final point, Richard, is the demographic of the air members is quite a bit different to the demographic, sorry, the market demographic. Because the elders network is largely, you know, wheat, sheep, kind of sort of like big broadacre segmentation where there's smaller segmentation, smaller operators.

Yeah, okay. Makes sense. Thanks, Mark.

Thank you. That is all the time we have for questions for today. I'll now hand back to Mr. Allison for closing remarks.

Okay, well, thank you very much and look forward to, Paul and I look forward to catching up with many of you over the next week and look forward to catching up to you then. Bye.