New Hope Corporation Limited

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us this morning for us to go through our interim financial results for the first half of 2024. Hopefully, Technology is working for everyone, and you can hear me clearly. You'll probably see on your screen the presentation, which is ourselves at the moment, and then we'll flick to the presentation. You should have a question section on the side as well for you to put questions in throughout the presentation, and then post the presentation. We'll answer those questions as best we can. As usual, I'm joined by my colleagues here. I've got Rebecca Rinaldi to my right, CFO, and Dom O'Brien, Exec GM and COSEC. We've changed it up a bit for this half. Previously, we've had a lunch and presentation and then a fairly limited Q&A. What we're going to do for this time, I'll present a dozen slides or so, and then we'll pivot to Q&A to give more of an opportunity for those that have dialled in to ask questions, and hopefully that'll help clarify our result. You should have received the result an hour or two ago, so hopefully you've had a chance to go through that. So I'll pivot to the next next slide. So. I guess in essence, it's been another terrific start to the year. We've had a few good years now and this first half has been a continuation of that. I guess our value proposition is fairly simple. Our assets are low cost, high margin. Our organic growth profile we'll see is double our production in just a little over three years. Our coal is very high energy and it has a very positive outlook. And most importantly, We, you know, we're industry leaders from a safety perspective. And, you know, we're also very proud of the way we engage, not only with our communities, but also from an environmental perspective. So another positive start to the year. On the left-hand side there, you can see, I guess, the tremendous spike in pricing over the last couple of years, and that's really come off any particular than you expect 6000. So on that graph, we we represent API five, which is a high action than 6000, which is a low action. You can say that that's come right off now that has impacted our result. But quite pleasingly, you know, our underlying EBITDA was 425 million for the first half. And that's really been driven by our real uptick in our saleable coal production to 4.1 million tonnes, which is just under a 30% increase compared to the first half last year. We'll get into the detail of our operations, but that's really been driven by an uptick in Bengala and also Ackland starting up this year. Net profit after tax, a decrease from the prior year. Again, that's really driven by a softening in the coal price, but offset with an increase in production and sales. Shareholder return, strong 9.2%, coming off some very strong years, and an interim dividend, fully franked dividend of 17 cents, which is great news for our shareholders, consistently providing shareholder returns, even as cold prices come back. Probably most pleasingly is a continuation of our safety record. We've had a slight uptick, and I'll get into a bit of detail soon, but well under the industry average at 2.55 for Tripper. So on the topic of safety, as I consistently say, and as we consistently do it at New Hope, we've put the highest priority on the safety of our team and contractors and people that visit our site. We monitor all injury frequency rate is our primary measure. That's something which we've introduced over the last couple of years. And you can see over the course of since January 22 and out to January 24, we've consistently reduced that. Having said that, it has upticked slightly in the last six months or the last couple of months. And same with total recordable injury frequency rate down the bottom of TRIFA. So in order to obviously coming off quite a high TRIFA at 4.76, we've seen leaps and bounds, I guess, in safety focus and safety result for the business. But obviously, gains become less as we strive to get to that zero figure. As I said, we've had a bit of an uptake and we've really tried to focus on, I guess, resetting everyone's mindset. We've had some safety stops across all of our sites just to reflect on some of the incidents we've had and really drive home that focus across the whole group so that we can continue that downward trend. But I guess overall, very pleasingly, that we're below that industry or five year industry average of 5.15. So over to Outlook. We've got a couple of graphs here and the one on the right, certainly one we presented before. On the left there, it's probably a more simplified version of what we presented before. This is provided by Commodity Insights. What this depicts is the supply in the columns and then we've got demand across the top. Now, supply is fairly steady for probably the next five to seven years and then really comes off. Whereas demand, and again, this is driven by Commodity Insights, sees an uptick. And that's really driven by our neighbours in Asia. And you can see there in 2035, the expectation is that there'll be a deficit of about 190 million tonnes. Now that's across both high ash and low ash, but I guess it really shows you the real challenge for the industry globally to meet demand through this transition period. On the right hand side there, you can see the various qualities of coal. Australia sits very well in yellow there at around about the 6000 calorific value. And then Russia and Colombia are probably the other material producers alongside Australia for that premium low emission, high calorific value coal. In the dark blue there, we have NAC and BMC sitting just north of Australia in its calorific value content. And we see that as a very important contributor to the future of coal demand. And then as other operations come off, we'll see that real differentiator between supply and demand, which should see an uptick in price. Probably one of the, I guess, the focus or the focus for investors should be our cost control, our discipline cost control. You can see on the left there, I guess, a build up or a variance of our cost compared to this time last year of 65.4 moving out to to 72.5. Now, that might seem quite a decent uptick, but if you look at the granular detail behind that, we've come off a period of very high inflationary impacts, and you would have seen that in prior periods. That's actually come off a bit for us, and that inflationary impact of negative is really driven by a reduction in diesel price, which is a key cost into our open-cut businesses. A big part of the uptick is at that growth column of 8.4. What that relates to is really, I guess, the preparation, particularly at Bengala for the uptick to 13.4 run rate of ROM per year. So to the right, you can see a volume impact of or favourable impact of 5.4. What that is, is just the increase in volume compared to last year. So as Bengala consistently pushes out an annualised production of 13.4, we should see that cost come down more. And then on the right hand side there, the 4.4 relates to the NAC ramp up. So we've segregated that out on the basis that NAC is in ramp up. Obviously, any operation has a portion of fixed costs. And until you get your tonnage volume or your denominator up, your unit costs will suffer as that gets up to 4.4. to the 5 million tonne run rate in a couple of years, or just over two and a half years, we'll see that cost come down significantly for NAC and alongside Bengala, it will sit in the lower, the first quartile of the cost curve and generate significant margins. More pleasingly on the right-hand side is how we performed against our competitors. And, you know, we're at the pointy end or the right end of the graph there, right at the lowest point. So obviously it's been challenging across the whole industry from an inflationary impact. A lot of it's uncontrollable, things that are controllable. We've outperformed the industry, I guess you could say. um now obviously that's that represents the last three years um our expectation is coming into the end of this year as our volumes tick up our our costs should become even more competitive so we're very very proud of that and i think that's a very important thing for for investors to focus on um you know obviously We've got a lot of uncontrollable costs hitting us, both from a diesel, et cetera, but also from a government impost with regards to taxes and the lower costs you can have, the more resilient you can be to points in the cycle where price does decline. So this, for probably some of our newer viewers to our presentations, this just gives you an overview of our operations. And the key operations are our coal mines, Bengala in New South Wales, New Ackland in Queensland, and then the Maxwell mine, which is our recent Malabar investment underground, which is starting up. And I'll touch on a bit more detail of those operations in the next few slides. Alongside that, we have some mining rehabilitation out at Gibra Killie, which is well advanced, and then some coal exploration assets both in Queensland and surrounding our existing operations. To complement that, we've got some very established agricultural operations surrounding Bengala and New Auckland, and also our port facility QBH at the Port of Brisbane, which supports the West Moreton Basin, which includes our Auckland mine and also a couple of other mines out in that basin. Alongside that, we have an oil and gas division, and you can also see our location of our corporate offices So operationally, Bengala Mine, it's certainly been the cornerstone in this business for quite a while now. And as I've discussed previously, we're partway through a ramp up of that operation to get to that 13.4 million tonne per annum. um bengala is a is a it's a very um stable asset very predictable it's um got two mining methods both the drag line and and um truck shovel which ultimately reduces our risk and we can pivot between one on the other depending on any you know um shutdowns etc um and this year is um has been another strong year um as you saw before production has increased compared to last year, and we're well advanced in the growth project. So probably for about three or four months now, we've been producing at the 13.4 million tonne ROM rate. So we have all the growth gear in the pit and operating, and that's all been probably exceeding our expectations, which is great news. And we've recently completed towards the back end of last year, the prep plant tailing circuit upgrade. And what that's allowed us to do is push about another 800,000 to almost a million tons through that wash plant, which not only increases the capacity, but it's also improving our quality across our whole. our whole product grouping. So on the right hand, at the bottom on the right hand side there, you can see where our long-term quality is or low ash coal as a percentage of all our production. And that will take us out to around about 2037 at that run rate. So, you know, great asset, low cost, sits low on the cost curve and long approvals. Top right hand side there, you can see the Bengala mine in blue and where it is in relation to our neighbours. We've also recently acquired the EL9431, which is located there with that arrow. And then more recently, AL19. And what that provides us with is optionality moving forward to extend the life post our current approvals. We realise that that might seem a way off, but that time will come around quick and there's a lot of work to be done to shore up both the EL and the AL and work out whether there's an economic pit there and whether we can obtain approvals, whether the government will support us in that. And then further down to the right, you can see where Malabar is located in relation to Bengala. So New Ackland mine, another year of milestones and a very, very, very happy, happy time out there. So both not only for the site, but for the community. So we mined first coal out of stage three after 16 years applying for that approval and a couple of years of downtime in between stage two. So very positive out there. We're up to about 130, 140 employees. on site now. And that pit will get up to the 5 million tonnes per annum, which is what the stage two operated at. Similar to Bengala, Ackland has very high quality. It also is much lower emissions, probably one of the lower emission coals that Australia produces. It's a very hard coal. And that allows us to be kept out of the safeguard mechanism, which ultimately improves our cost base and pushes us further left on the cost curve compared to our competitors. From a stage three competitive perspective, we're currently operating in Manningvale West, which is that light blue section in the middle of that picture. And then we've just completed the Lagoon Creek crossing, which has opened up the Willaroo Pit. And what that will provide us with is is some flexibility with regards to our conditions. We have fairly onerous operating conditions there, mostly from a noise perspective and opening up a separate pit allows us to ramp up a lot quicker and pivot depending on how the weather conditions. prevail. Later this year, we are looking to get into Manningvale West Pit, which will require some some capex to get into. And then you can see also on that that slide that, you know, the extensive rehabilitation, which is in dark blue, has been has been certified and signed off. And then the large green area, which is the ongoing progressive rehabilitation that we've done out of stage one and stage two. So it's a very good story there from a from a responsible operator perspective. Probably the one outstanding concern is heading back to Land Court for the fourth time towards the back end of this year. We're confident that the right outcome will prevail in that Land Court decision, but it does create uncertainty. So from a capital management perspective, We are keeping that in mind, but we're also ensuring that our ramp up is to that 5 million tonnes according to that graph at the top there. So it's really a case of managing that capital responsibly if we do have, I guess, an untoward decision which causes further delay there. But at the moment, we're focusing on the positive and we're confident that Ackland will be up to 5 million tonnes, you know, circa FY27. So recently, it's probably the newest acquisition for the group, Malabar. For those that recall, we had an initial investment probably about 18 months ago of 15%. And more recently, Malabar or the Malabar board made the decision to fast track development in that project to the 300 metre long wall, which required the 180 million. It was initially 160 million and was upsized due to a lot of interest in that raise. So New Hope participated in that and also took an underwrite position to assist. And we're happy to say that we've increased to 19.9%. Malabar's a an excellent asset and really aligns with our strategy, which, as it says on the screen, we focus on low-cost coal assets, long-life approvals, and we're also keen to both progress metallurgical coal and thermal coal opportunities. It also fits very well from a social licence to operate perspective. The team at Malabar have done a great job getting the approvals for that pit. And their engagement with the community is very aligned with New Hope's approach. So it's great to be shareholding partners with that team and building another great asset. Coal out of Malabar will be predominantly semi-soft with a secondary product of thermal. And you can see the ramp up profile on the right there. it will be very low cost once it's at full tilt and you can see on there $55 a ton so if you were to put it on the same cost curve as our other assets it would sit even further to the left of of Bengala and and and Ackland which you know sets it up very well for a a very profitable future and it has very long approvals. So exciting times there. We've also in the process at Malabar of progressing the Maxwell Solar Farm, which will help keep operating costs to a minimum with supplementing energy costs behind the meter. So as we've talked about our operations and executing our growth plans, we need to make sure we do that sustainably for all of our stakeholders. Locally, that means operating responsibly for not only our people, but for the communities and the environment. It also means, you know, producing, you know, good quality coal, which comes out of Australia, you know, for the decade long transition, which we're seeing. And if you look at the, I guess, the uptake of renewables, it's become clear that, you know, to strive to that net zero position will be challenging and coal is going to play a very important part of that transition. um we obviously have spent a lot of time not only on the e but the s and the g and you know i feel you know the s and the g probably isn't focused on as much it's it tends to be all about the e but you know new hope certainly i think is is leading the way in a lot of ways in both you know in all three parts of that and you can see there um the msci rating there has we've moved up the the curve um currently a triple b but we're always looking to move further up. But obviously it's challenging, but we'll keep pressing on with that. So I guess in summary, you can see here our growth trajectory and it's, I guess the positive thing about our growth trajectory, it's not only doubling production across the three assets, it also is a relatively low risk increase. If you look at the majority of our growth that's coming from Ackland, That pit has been operated before at five million tonnes. We're getting a lot of employees back on board that have worked there previously. So from an execution risk and mining technical skill, we're bringing people back on which have already operated in that pit. We've already got gear on site, all the infrastructure is there from stage two. So it's really just managing that ramp up responsibly and safely. Bengala, as I said before, we're already achieving the the the target of 13.4 million tons and our prep plan is exceeding our expectations with regards to to throughput and um as we've just discussed malabar is well advanced in its it's um it's in its ramp up and fully funded um so from a from an execution risk perspective we feel we have that in hand um it's also a fairly modest investment to get to that double production figure Most of the capital is executed at Bengala. I think we have about $80 million left to spend there. New Ackland still has about 400, 430 million to spend over the period. And Maxwell Mine, as I said before, has already been fully funded with the recent capital raise. So looking forward, as you saw before, we see a very strong demand for our coal. So once we're through this growth, We see shareholder returns increasing more so than what they are now. And that strong cash generation should continue well into the future with our long operations, which are improved out to the late 2030s and beyond. Obviously, we'd like to expand that further, and we've got that optionality with not only at Bengala, but obviously there's more opportunity at Ackland should that be approved. But for now, we're focusing on operating responsibly and continuing our growth trajectory. So that's it for the formal part of the presentation. I think we'll flick to Q&A now. Dave is on hand, he's moderating it and will be providing the questions. So obviously put more questions in as we talk. And if any other ones come up while we're answering other questions, feel free to put them in as well. So I might pivot to Dave to pitch some questions to us.

Thank you, Rob. We've got the first question. What have you done to quantify risks to your business, especially beyond 2035?

Dom, do you want to cover that up? Yeah, I'm happy to. We've probably got a lot of publication around risk and risk profile. It's important to probably start with our enterprise risk governance framework and then our corporate governance statement and then the risks disclosure as well in our annual reporting suite is quite extensive about how we've applied that and then what we've determined and articulated with respect to risks. If we think about many of the things that Rob spoke about there in terms of outlook, it's all about that demand decline curve over time and how resilient are we to it. In our climate change and global energy transition statement that we published almost two years ago, and then the content of that was updated in the sustainability report that was published within the annual report last year, we've got quite extensive analysis and consideration of what that demand decline curve looks like over time, based on current assessments and based upon information provided by Woodmac and others, and how we see ourselves fitting into that and what the resilience is. Now, we obviously see, as has been presented, that we've got a good organic growth opportunity ahead of us. We believe that the expiry of our current operations in the late 2030s, we believe there's merit in seeking to extend those, hence the work that's been put into them. Fundamentally, we're probably not making a final investment decision on those opportunities for a good four or five years yet. Probably that's closer to the time by which a decision must be made. But we've got a little bit of runway where we'll be carrying out the exploration, engaging with communities, conducting EIS, et cetera, making application for approvals before we finally make that decision. So during that time, of course, we naturally reflect and reassess the broader landscape and then what the outlook looks like at relevant time. But suffice to say, we think there's even opportunity beyond our existing lives at the moment and sort of see ourselves coming under that demand decline curve and provide valuable returns to shareholders right throughout that period.

Thanks, Dom. Another question. The balance sheet is strong and you can fund buybacks and growth. How do you think about the value of the stock when buying back shares? Also, with the step up in capex at Maxwell and Ackland, what level of capex do you see in the second half of 24 and 25?

Yeah, thanks, Dave. So the balance sheet is in a really strong position, which we're really proud of in terms of the capital allocation between shareholders and on-market buybacks. With the dramatic reduction in price, I think we would favour dividends for our shareholders as opposed to buybacks. but we do still have the on-market buyback active if we do need it. In terms of capital, so Maxwell, as Rob touched on, is already fully funded, so we don't expect there to be any cash draw required outside of the rights issue that recently got executed. With New Ackland, so the capital profile is about $430 million. Now, that is expected to be spread over the next two to three years, and our thinking at the moment, that will all be funded by operational cash flows.

Thank you, Bec. A question regarding New Ackland. Is the delay in the access to Westpit to 1 September included in the production profile? And if you don't get access, how does this impact the medium-term production, operational expenditure, capital expenditure and the mine life?

So the growth profile which we showed on the Ackland page does include the, well, it's not necessarily a delay in West Pit. So getting into West Pit towards the end of this calendar year was always in plan. And that requires a bit of capital to get to West Pit, similar to what we had to do to get into the Willaroo Pit. And at this stage, that is included in the ramp up. So as Bec said, that capital spend is over the next two to three years. I think as I stated previously, we do have the destruction of Blancourt later this year. So I guess from our capital execution perspective is that we're not We're not looking at delaying ramp up. We're just looking at mitigating, I guess, unnecessary or uncritical spend. We'll defer that just to, I guess, manage it responsibly should we get any form of delay. If Manningvale West Pit is delayed in any way, shape or form, it doesn't really impact our ramp up in the short term. It's more longer term run rates are impacted given that the mine planning sequencing. So so we can push harder in in willaroo pit in mattingvale east um if we do see a delay so the as i said before it's it's a very flexible mining situation out there with the the two or three pits depending on how we've got going and we can pivot between them depending on you know influences like you know weather and also you know land court distractions thanks rob um

Can you please reconfirm Bengala cost guidance for financial year 24 of $72.81 a tonne? Given the second half volumes look like improving by 15% to 20%, might the bottom end of the cost guidance be tested or beaten?

That's right, so we released guidance following Q1 in FY24 with that range of 72 to 81. You are right, so the second half volumes are more significant than what we've seen in the first half, so we are currently expecting to come in that lower end of guidance.

Thank you, Bec. Another question in regards to Ackland ramp-up. It looks unchanged through to financial year 28. Can you please confirm the CAPEX guidance and that the above rail capacity is fully secured?

Yeah, sure. So I guess reconfirming, the CAPEX guidance is about 430, but that is spread over the next two to three years, depending on the outcome of land court. In terms of above rail capacity, we have secured that ramp-up profile, which was presented. There is more short-term capacity coming to the market, though, so we are, where we can, taking additional rail volumes.

Thank you, Bec. Can you please provide an update on the coal hedging book? Do price swaps expire this financial year or is there an ongoing policy?

So our policy is we can hedge when we see, I guess, a good forward-looking market. The hedging that we put on about 18 months ago was very strong at the time, so the forward price was about 230 US a tonne. We haven't looked to put any more hedging on because we have seen that price come off, but the opportunity is there for us to do it. I guess the At a more higher level, we are a significant low-cost producer, so we don't really see the need to hedge out coal price because we can weather the storm. If we do really see an uptick in that forward price again, we would look to put more hedging on. But at the moment, we're just holding tight on that.

A question in relation to Malabar at Maxwell. So Malabar, a long-wall operation of New Hope Coal Experience is an open pit operation. What are your confidence levels around Maxwell Mine geotechnically, given the experience of some other long-haul operations?

So we're confident and hence the reason why we invested in that opportunity. And I guess what gave us confidence was not only due diligence, which we performed like we would for any investment, but also when you look at the shareholder base there and the management team, all very experienced, a lot of history in coal, a lot of history in underground coal. and then add to that the overlay of the the geologic the geological makeup of that pit um and it all leads us to you know the the the you know the the outward look on production uptick and and the low cost uh projections for that pit so in essence we're we're very comfortable you know as you quite rightly pointed out where we're not underground operators at new hope and for us you know taking a minority position with a great team, a very experienced team made a lot of sense. You know, it's probably fair to say that approvals might go down the path of more undergrounds and open cuts. And, you know, investing in Malabar is a great opportunity for New Hope to get up the knowledge curve for those types of assets.

Thank you, Rob. A couple more questions to go. Can you please comment on how you're tracking this guidance, both in terms of production and CapEx Plus?

Yes, sure. So in terms of production, we are tracking two guidance at the moment. So we're not expecting any update there. We actually haven't released CapEx guidance. It's a really difficult one because we have got the land court later this year, which is holding us back in terms of capital spend for NAC. We have released cost guidance though for Bengala and we are tracking well to that. And as I mentioned earlier, expecting to come in at the lower end of that cost guidance.

Thank you, Bec. Do you have a through the cycle net debt target balance sheet metrics? And with a preference for dividends over buybacks, can you please remind us of your dividend policy?

Yeah, sure. So I guess in terms of net debt target, we don't really have anything at the moment. We're quite comfortable. We've got a lot of cash in the bank and we are investing surplus cash into fixed income opportunities. If we were to look at potential M&A, we would go out and look for debt then, but outside of that, we're pretty comfortable without any debt on the balance sheet. As I touched on before, I think the preference for us is to return funds to our shareholders via dividends. We did the on-market buyback, which was very successful, but at the moment with price where it is, the cash generation is not as significant as it was 12 months ago. So we would like to pivot more to dividends for our shareholders.

The final question might, maybe one was just coming through, two questions to go. What is the conceptual development plan for AL19?

So we've literally only just completed that transaction. So as I stated before, it's really for optionality on a potential extension for Bengala. It's quite a large piece of real estate, which runs up not only behind Bengala, but also Mount Pleasant and Dartbrook. So there's a lot of land there, a lot of landholders, a big part of the community there. So we initially reached out to all those landholders to introduce ourselves to those not familiar with New Hope. And our intention is to proceed with an exploration plan. And off the back of that, that will help us decide whether there's some economic coal out that way. And then we would engage more with landholders and the community and also government to potentially pursue an approval there at some point in the future. Now, that will take some time. But we will make sure we're very open and transparent with the local community on that plan. And as that plan unfolds, we'll be sharing that.

A couple more questions have come in. Do you think you can push beyond the 13.4 million tonne of Bengala and push saleable production given the recent upgrades?

13.4 was a number we got to after a lot of review of what could be mined out of that kit. million tonne per annum approval out to 2039. So the 13.4 is really a result of working out what we can safely mine from that pit. It is a fairly tight, neat pit. So you do get to a point where you run into congestion issues if you try and push it too hard. So with the interaction Gareth J. Between all of the mobile equipment in trucks shovels light vehicles, etc, and then we have the drag line in there, moving about sort of 2025% of the dirt. Gareth J. 13.4 is really the maximum you can get out of there safely and then you need to balance that also with the infrastructure so. Gareth J. we've you know it's best touched on we spent a fair bit of capital on the. the prep plan as well to essentially wash more of that 13.4 million raw coal to maximise quality. So in essence, 13.4 is really where we see it maxing out. We don't want to push it any harder than that.

The final question, just a quick comment on your view for thermal coal prices in the short term and in terms of downside versus upside risks.

Sure, so if you reflect back to that, one of those first slides where you saw the historical price over the last couple of years, and probably over quite a few years, although prices have come off a lot, we're still well above historical highs. So Nuke is sitting around at about 130. It has been for a month or so now. So it did spike up to high, almost 140, but it's sitting around about 130. And then, as was discussed before, the higher ash, 5,500, is it a discount to that? But probably back to around about that sort of 20% historical discount. So that's sort of providing a floor. We see China taking a lot of that higher ash coal, and that's really sort of underpinning the 6,000 higher calorific value coal. So Whether it'll go up and down, I think it's anyone's guess to a certain extent. But I think where our outlook is really, it's probably going to stay where it is, give or take a little bit for some time, probably for the rest of this year. And it really depends. And that's putting aside any major global events. Obviously, a couple of years ago, we saw the Ukraine crisis had a massive impact on energy. And coal benefited a lot from that from a producer perspective. So putting anything like that aside, it really comes down to, you know, northern hemisphere winter. Later this year, we've come off probably two mild winters, which I think has kept coal price, you know, sort of capped for the last, you know, 12 months. But that can quickly change if we see another, you know, I think our view is there's probably a better chance of increasing rather than falling. But if it does floor, we're well placed given our position on the cost curve. So even I think going back three years ago, August 20, when it got to $48 a tonne, US, you know, Bengala was still profitable. So that's really our focus is controlling what we can so that, you know, we're always profitable. And then obviously if prices spike up, we're generating a lot of cash to return to our shareholders.

Thank you, Rob. No more questions from me.

Thank you. Appreciate everyone dialing in and we'll be no doubt visiting a couple of you over the next coming days with our roadshow. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you.